The real relationship between your age and your chance of success | Albert-László Barabási

譯者: Lilian Chiu 審譯者: Sharon Hsiao

Today, actually, is a very special day for me,

今天對我來說是個很特別的一天，

because it is my birthday.

因為今天是我的生日。

(Applause)

（掌聲）

And so, thanks to all of you for joining the party.

謝謝大家來參加這場派對。

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

But every time you throw a party, there's someone there to spoil it. Right?

但，每次你辦派對時， 總會掃興的人，對吧？

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

And I'm a physicist,

我是物理學家，

and this time I brought another physicist along to do so.

這次，我帶來了 另一位來掃興的物理學家。

His name is Albert Einstein -- also Albert -- and he's the one who said

他叫做阿爾伯特愛因斯坦—— 也叫阿爾伯特——他說過

that the person who has not made his great contributions to science

如果一個人到了三十歲 都還沒有對科學

做出偉大的貢獻， 就永遠不會有貢獻了。

by the age of 30

will never do so.

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

Now, you don't need to check Wikipedia

各位不需要去維基百科查證，

that I'm beyond 30.

我已經超過三十歲了。

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

So, effectively, what he is telling me, and us,

所以，實際上，他要 告訴我以及我們的是，

is that when it comes to my science,

在我的科學領域中，

I'm deadwood.

我已經是枯枝。

Well, luckily, I had my share of luck within my career.

嗯，幸運的是，我在 我的職涯中有好運氣。

Around age 28, I became very interested in networks,

大約二十八歲時， 我對於網路非常感興趣，

and a few years later, we managed to publish a few key papers

幾年後，我們出版了 幾篇重要論文，

that reported the discovery of scale-free networks

闡述我們發現了無尺度網路，

and really gave birth to a new discipline that we call network science today.

創造出了一門新的學科， 就是現今所稱的網路科學。

And if you really care about it, you can get a PhD now in network science

如果各位想知道，現在可以 取得網路科學博士學位的地方

in Budapest, in Boston,

包括布達佩斯、波士頓，

and you can study it all over the world.

且在全世界各地都可以研讀它。

A few years later,

幾年後，

when I moved to Harvard first as a sabbatical,

我搬到哈佛，一開始是學術休假，

I became interested in another type of network:

我開始對另一種網路產生了興趣：

that time, the networks within ourselves,

我們體內的網路，

how the genes and the proteins and the metabolites link to each other

基因、蛋白質、代謝物 彼此之間如何連結，

and how they connect to disease.

以及它們和疾病的關係。

And that interest led to a major explosion within medicine,

那項興趣導致了醫學上的大爆炸，

including the Network Medicine Division at Harvard,

包括哈佛的網路醫學部門，

that has more than 300 researchers who are using this perspective

有超過三百名研究者使用這種觀點

to treat patients and develop new cures.

來治療病人和開發新解藥。

And a few years ago,

幾年前，

I thought that I would take this idea of networks

我認為我可以把網路的這個點子

and the expertise we had in networks

以及我們對網路的專長 帶到不同的領域去，

in a different area,

that is, to understand success.

也就是，用來了解成功。

And why did we do that?

為什麼要那樣做？

Well, we thought that, to some degree,

嗯，我們認為，在某種程度上，

our success is determined by the networks we're part of --

我們的成功是由我們所屬的網路決定，

that our networks can push us forward, they can pull us back.

我們的網路將我們向前推進， 也可以讓我們遲滯不前。

And I was curious if we could use the knowledge and big data and expertise

我很好奇，我們是否 能用這知識和大數據

及我們開發網路的專門技術 來將成功的發生給量化。

where we develop the networks

to really quantify how these things happen.

This is a result from that.

這就是研究的結果。

What you see here is a network of galleries in museums

各位現在看到的是 博物館的畫廊的網路，

that connect to each other.

它們彼此連結。

And through this map that we mapped out last year,

透過我們去年畫的這張地圖，

we are able to predict very accurately the success of an artist

我們就可以很精確地預測 一位藝術家是否會成功，

if you give me the first five exhibits that he or she had in their career.

只要給我這位藝術家 在職涯中的最早五件展示品。

Well, as we thought about success,

當我們在思考成功時，

we realized that success is not only about networks;

我們發現，成功不只和網路有關；

there are so many other dimensions to that.

還有好多其他的維度。

And one of the things we need for success, obviously,

很顯然，我們想要成功 就一定需要的一樣東西

is performance.

就是表現。

So let's define what's the difference between performance and success.

所以，咱們來定義一下 表現和成功之間的差別。

Well, performance is what you do:

表現是你所做的事：

how fast you run, what kind of paintings you paint,

你能跑多快、你畫出什麼樣的畫、

what kind of papers you publish.

你出版什麼樣的論文。

However, in our working definition,

然而，根據我們的工作定義，

success is about what the community notices from what you did,

成功的重點在於大家 能注意到你做了什麼、

from your performance:

你的表現如何：

How does it acknowledge it, and how does it reward you for it?

怎麼認可你的表現， 你的表現帶給你什麼報償？

In other terms,

換言之，

your performance is about you, but your success is about all of us.

你的表現是你的事， 但你的成功是我們所有人的事。

And this was a very important shift for us,

這對我們來說是很重要的轉變，

because the moment we defined success as being a collective measure

因為當我們把成功定義為

團體提供我們的一個集體測量值， 它就變成可測量的，

that the community provides to us,

it became measurable,

because if it's in the community, there are multiple data points about that.

因為如果它是在團體中， 就有相關的許多資料點。

So we go to school, we exercise, we practice,

所以我們去學校， 我們做作業，我們練習，

because we believe that performance leads to success.

因為我們相信表現會導致成功。

But the way we actually started to explore,

但我們這樣開始探究之後，

we realized that performance and success are very, very different animals

便了解到在數學問題上，

表現和成功非常不同。

when it comes to the mathematics of the problem.

And let me illustrate that.

讓我說明一下。

So what you see here is the fastest man on earth, Usain Bolt.

各位在這裡看到的是世界上 最快的人，尤塞恩博爾特。

And of course, he wins most of the competitions that he enters.

當然，他參加的比賽， 他大部分都有贏。

And we know he's the fastest on earth because we have a chronometer

我們知道他跑得最快，因為我們 有精密計時器來測量速度。

to measure his speed.

Well, what is interesting about him is that when he wins,

關於他，有一點很有趣， 那就是當他贏的時候，

he doesn't do so by really significantly outrunning his competition.

他並不是明顯超越他的對手許多。

He's running at most a percent faster than the one who loses the race.

他最多是比輸家快 1% 而已。

And not only does he run only one percent faster than the second one,

他不僅只比第二名快 1%，

but he doesn't run 10 times faster than I do --

他也沒有跑得比我快十倍——

and I'm not a good runner, trust me on that.

我不是個好跑者，相信我。

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

And every time we are able to measure performance,

每當我們能夠測量表現時，

we notice something very interesting;

我們就會注意到一件很有趣的事；

that is, performance is bounded.

那就是，表現是受限的。

What it means is that there are no huge variations in human performance.

意思就是說，人類的表現 並沒有太大的變動。

It varies only in a narrow range,

人類表現只在一個小範圍中變動，

and we do need the chronometer to measure the differences.

我們的確需要很精密的 計時器才能測出差別。

This is not to say that we cannot see the good from the best ones,

這並不是說我們分不出 好和最好的差別，

but the best ones are very hard to distinguish.

而是很難分辨出最好的人。

And the problem with that is that most of us work in areas

那所造成的問題就是， 我們大部分人工作的領域中

where we do not have a chronometer to gauge our performance.

並沒有精密的計時器 來測量我們的表現。

Alright, performance is bounded,

好，表現是受限的，

there are no huge differences between us when it comes to our performance.

我們之間在表現上 沒有很大的差異。

How about success?

那成功呢？

Well, let's switch to a different topic, like books.

咱們切換到一個不同的 主題，以書籍為例。

One measure of success for writers is how many people read your work.

對作家來說，成功的測量值之一 就是有多少人讀你的作品。

And so when my previous book came out in 2009,

我的上一本書在 2009 年推出時，

I was in Europe talking with my editor,

我在歐洲跟我的編輯談，

and I was interested: Who is the competition?

我很感興趣：競爭對手是誰？

And I had some fabulous ones.

我有一些很棒的對手。

That week --

那週——

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

Dan Brown came out with "The Lost Symbol,"

丹布朗推出《失落的符號》，

and "The Last Song" also came out,

《最後一首歌》也推出了，

Nicholas Sparks.

尼可拉斯史派克的作品。

And when you just look at the list,

當你只是看列表，

you realize, you know, performance-wise, there's hardly any difference

你會知道，就表現來說，

這些書和我的書之間 幾乎沒有什麼差別。

between these books or mine.

Right?

對吧？

So maybe if Nicholas Sparks's team works a little harder,

所以，也許尼可拉斯史派克的 團隊更努力一點，

he could easily be number one,

他很容易成為第一名，

because it's almost by accident who ended up at the top.

因為誰會在頂端幾乎都是意外。

So I said, let's look at the numbers -- I'm a data person, right?

所以，我說，咱們來看看數字， 我是研究資料的人，對吧？

So let's see what were the sales for Nicholas Sparks.

咱們來看看尼可拉斯 史派克的銷售額如何。

And it turns out that that opening weekend,

結果發現，在第一個週末，

Nicholas Sparks sold more than a hundred thousand copies,

尼可拉斯史派克 賣出了超過十萬本書，

which is an amazing number.

這個數字很驚人。

You can actually get to the top of the "New York Times" best-seller list

只要一週銷售一萬本，

就可以登上《紐約時報》 暢銷書排行榜了，

by selling 10,000 copies a week,

so he tenfold overcame what he needed to be number one.

所以他超越了成為第一名 需要的數字足足十倍。

Yet he wasn't number one.

但，他並非第一名。為什麼？

Why?

Because there was Dan Brown, who sold 1.2 million copies that weekend.

因為還有丹布朗，那個週末， 他的書賣了一百二十萬本。

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

And the reason I like this number is because it shows that, really,

我喜歡這些數字是因為，

它呈現出成功是沒有限制的，

when it comes to success, it's unbounded,

that the best doesn't only get slightly more than the second best

第一名並不會只比第二名多一點，

but gets orders of magnitude more,

而是用指數倍數來算，

because success is a collective measure.

因為成功是集體的測量值。

We give it to them, rather than we earn it through our performance.

我們把成功給他們，而不是 透過自己的表現贏來成功的。

So one of things we realized is that performance, what we do, is bounded,

我們了解到，表現， 也就是我們所做的，會受限，

but success, which is collective, is unbounded,

但成功，是集體的，沒有限制，

which makes you wonder:

這就會讓人納悶：

How do you get these huge differences in success

如果在表現上只能有小小的差別，

when you have such tiny differences in performance?

在成功上如何造成 這麼巨大的差別？

And recently, I published a book that I devoted to that very question.

最近，我出版了一本書， 就是針對這個問題而寫的。

And they didn't give me enough time to go over all of that,

他們沒有給我足夠的時間 去談所有這些，

so I'm going to go back to the question of,

所以我要回到這個問題，

alright, you have success; when should that appear?

好，你有成功；它會何時出現？

So let's go back to the party spoiler and ask ourselves:

咱們回到讓派對掃興的 那個人，問問我們自己：

Why did Einstein make this ridiculous statement,

為什麼愛因斯坦 會說出那句荒謬的話，

that only before 30 you could actually be creative?

說只有在三十歲之前 你才可能真的有創意？

Well, because he looked around himself and he saw all these fabulous physicists

因為他看看自己身邊， 這些很出色的物理學家，

that created quantum mechanics and modern physics,

發明了量子力學和近代物理的人，

and they were all in their 20s and early 30s when they did so.

他們提出發明時都是 二十多歲或三十初頭。

And it's not only him.

不只是他而已。

It's not only observational bias,

這並不是觀察偏見，

because there's actually a whole field of genius research

因為有一整個領域的天才研究

that has documented the fact that,

記錄這個事實，

if we look at the people we admire from the past

如果我們去看我們 所欣賞的過去人物，

and then look at what age they made their biggest contribution,

看看他們做出最大貢獻的年齡，

whether that's music, whether that's science,

不論是音樂、不論是科學、

whether that's engineering,

不論是工程，

most of them tend to do so in their 20s, 30s, early 40s at most.

大部分都是在二、三十歲時達成，

最多四十初頭。

But there's a problem with this genius research.

但這種天才研究有一個問題。

Well, first of all, it created the impression to us

首先，它讓我們有一種印象，

that creativity equals youth,

認為創意等同年輕，

which is painful, right?

這很痛，對吧？

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

And it also has an observational bias,

它也有存在觀察偏見，

because it only looks at geniuses and doesn't look at ordinary scientists

因為它只研究天才， 沒有研究一般科學家，

and doesn't look at all of us and ask,

且沒有研究我們所有人並問：

is it really true that creativity vanishes as we age?

真的在我們年長之後 創意就消失嗎？

So that's exactly what we tried to do,

那就是我們試圖要做的，

and this is important for that to actually have references.

能真正有參考是很重要的。

So let's look at an ordinary scientist like myself,

咱們來看看一般的 科學家，像我自己，

and let's look at my career.

來看看我的職涯。

So what you see here is all the papers that I've published

這裡是我出版過的所有論文，

from my very first paper, in 1989; I was still in Romania when I did so,

我的第一篇論文在 1989 年出版，

當時我還在羅馬尼亞，

till kind of this year.

直到今年。

And vertically, you see the impact of the paper,

垂直來看，可以看到論文的影響，

that is, how many citations,

也就是引用數，

how many other papers have been written that cited that work.

有多少篇其他論文 曾經引用過那篇文章。

And when you look at that,

如果去看那些，就會發現 我的職涯大致可以分為三個階段。

you see that my career has roughly three different stages.

I had the first 10 years where I had to work a lot

前十年，我很努力工作， 沒有很高的成就。

and I don't achieve much.

No one seems to care about what I do, right?

似乎沒有人在乎我做什麼，對吧？

There's hardly any impact.

幾乎沒有任何影響力。

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

That time, I was doing material science,

那段時間，我在做材料科學，

and then I kind of discovered for myself networks

接著，我發現了網路，

and then started publishing in networks.

接著開始出版網路的文章。

And that led from one high-impact paper to the other one.

導致了一篇又一篇的 高影響力論文出現。

And it really felt good. That was that stage of my career.

感覺真的很好，我職涯的那個階段。

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

So the question is, what happens right now?

問題是，現在會發生什麼事？

And we don't know, because there hasn't been enough time passed yet

我們不知道，因為 還沒有經過那麼多時間，

to actually figure out how much impact those papers will get;

無法得知那些論文的影響會有 多大；那需要時間才能知道。

it takes time to acquire.

如果去看資料，似乎，愛因斯坦， 那些天才研究，是對的，

Well, when you look at the data,

it seems to be that Einstein, the genius research, is right,

and I'm at that stage of my career.

我正在職涯的那個階段。

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

So we said, OK, let's figure out how does this really happen,

所以，我們說，好，

咱們來研究看看這是如何發生的，

first in science.

先看科學。

And in order not to have the selection bias,

為了避免選樣偏誤，

to look only at geniuses,

只去研究天才，

we ended up reconstructing the career of every single scientist

我們最後為每一位 科學家都重建了職涯，

from 1900 till today

從 1900 年至今的所有科學家，

and finding for all scientists what was their personal best,

並針對所有科學家， 找出他們個人的顛峰時期，

whether they got the Nobel Prize or they never did,

不論他們是否有得到諾貝爾獎，

or no one knows what they did, even their personal best.

或者即使他們在顛峰時 也沒有人知道他們做了什麼。

And that's what you see in this slide.

那就是這張投影片呈現的。

Each line is a career,

每一條線就是一段職涯，

and when you have a light blue dot on the top of that career,

淡藍色的點就是那職涯的顛峰，

it says that was their personal best.

那是他們個人的最佳狀態。

And the question is,

問題是，他們何時 有最重大的發現？

when did they actually make their biggest discovery?

To quantify that,

為了量化它，我們去研究 做出最重大發現的機率，

we look at what's the probability that you make your biggest discovery,

let's say, one, two, three or 10 years into your career?

比如，你的職涯開始之後的 一、二、三，或十年？

We're not looking at real age.

我們研究的不是真實年齡， 而是所謂的「學術年齡」。

We're looking at what we call "academic age."

Your academic age starts when you publish your first papers.

你的學術年齡開始於 你的第一篇論文被刊出時。

I know some of you are still babies.

我知道在座還有一些嬰兒。

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

So let's look at the probability

咱們來看看你出版

that you publish your highest-impact paper.

最有影響力的論文的機率。

And what you see is, indeed, the genius research is right.

各位可以看見，的確， 天才研究是對的。

Most scientists tend to publish their highest-impact paper

大部分的科學家傾向會在 職涯的前十、十五年

in the first 10, 15 years in their career,

出版他們最有影響力的論文，

and it tanks after that.

之後就開始下滑。

It tanks so fast that I'm about -- I'm exactly 30 years into my career,

下滑的速度很快，我大約——

我現在正在我職涯的三十年，

and the chance that I will publish a paper that would have a higher impact

我有可能出版一篇 比我以前所有論文

都更有影響力的論文的機率，

than anything that I did before

is less than one percent.

低於 1%。

I am in that stage of my career, according to this data.

根據這些資料，我現在 就處在職涯的那個階段。

But there's a problem with that.

但有個問題。

We're not doing controls properly.

我們沒有把控制做好。

So the control would be,

控制指的是，

what would a scientist look like who makes random contribution to science?

對科學做出隨機貢獻的科學家 看起來會是什麼樣子的？

Or what is the productivity of the scientist?

或，那位科學家的產能會是什麼？

When do they write papers?

他們何時撰寫論文？

So we measured the productivity,

所以我們測量了產能，

and amazingly, the productivity,

很驚人的是，產能，

your likelihood of writing a paper in year one, 10 or 20 in your career,

你在職涯第一、十、二十年 寫一篇論文的可能性，

is indistinguishable from the likelihood of having the impact

很接近在你職涯的那個部分

in that part of your career.

有所影響的可能性。

And to make a long story short,

長話短說，

after lots of statistical tests, there's only one explanation for that,

經過許多統計檢定， 只找出了一個解釋，

that really, the way we scientists work

那就是，我們科學家工作的方式，

is that every single paper we write, every project we do,

我們所寫的每一篇論文， 我們所做的每一個研究計畫，

has exactly the same chance of being our personal best.

都有同等的機會成為 我們個人的最佳作。

That is, discovery is like a lottery ticket.

也就是說，探究 就像是買彩券一樣。

And the more lottery tickets we buy,

我們買越多彩券，

the higher our chances.

機會就越高。

And it happens to be so

只是剛好

that most scientists buy most of their lottery tickets

大部分的科學家是在 職涯的前十、十五年

in the first 10, 15 years of their career,

買了他們大部分的彩券而已，

and after that, their productivity decreases.

那之後，他們的產能就下降了。

They're not buying any more lottery tickets.

他們不再買更多的彩券。

So it looks as if they would not be creative.

所以看起來就好像是 他們沒有創意了。

In reality, they stopped trying.

現實上，他們只是沒再嘗試。

So when we actually put the data together, the conclusion is very simple:

所以當我們把資料拼在一起， 結論就非常簡單：

success can come at any time.

成功隨時都可能到來。

It could be your very first or very last paper of your career.

可能是你職涯中的第一篇 或最後一篇論文。

It's totally random in the space of the projects.

在研究計畫的空間中， 這完全是隨機的。

It is the productivity that changes.

改變的是產能。

Let me illustrate that.

讓我說明一下。

Here is Frank Wilczek, who got the Nobel Prize in Physics

這是弗朗克韋爾切克， 得過諾貝爾物理獎，

for the very first paper he ever wrote in his career as a graduate student.

得獎的是他研究生 職涯中的第一篇論文。

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

More interesting is John Fenn,

更有趣的是約翰芬恩，

who, at age 70, was forcefully retired by Yale University.

他在七十歲時被迫 從耶魯大學退休。

They shut his lab down,

他們關掉了他的實驗室，

and at that moment, he moved to Virginia Commonwealth University,

那時，他搬到維吉尼亞聯邦大學，

opened another lab,

開了另一間實驗室，

and it is there, at age 72, that he published a paper

在那裡，七十二歲時， 他刊出了一篇論文，

for which, 15 years later, he got the Nobel Prize for Chemistry.

十五年後，那篇論文 讓他得了諾貝爾化學獎。

And you think, OK, well, science is special,

你們會想，好，科學是比較特別，

but what about other areas where we need to be creative?

但其他需要有創意的領域呢？

So let me take another typical example: entrepreneurship.

讓我舉另一個很典型的例子：

企業家精神。

Silicon Valley,

矽谷，

the land of the youth, right?

年輕人之地，對吧？

And indeed, when you look at it,

的確，當你去看它時，

you realize that the biggest awards, the TechCrunch Awards and other awards,

你會發現，最大的獎項 TechCrunch 獎及其他獎項

are all going to people

得獎人平均都是

whose average age is late 20s, very early 30s.

快要三十歲或三十歲初頭的人。

You look at who the VCs give the money to, some of the biggest VC firms --

可以去看創投公司把錢給誰， 有些最大的創投公司——

all people in their early 30s.

都是三十初頭的人。

Which, of course, we know;

當然，我們知道；

there is this ethos in Silicon Valley that youth equals success.

在矽谷有一種風氣， 就是年輕等同成功。

Not when you look at the data,

資料可不是這麼說的。

because it's not only about forming a company --

因為重點並不只是成立公司——

forming a company is like productivity, trying, trying, trying --

成立公司就像是產能， 嘗試、嘗試、嘗試——

when you look at which of these individuals actually put out

如果你只是去看 這些人當中有誰設立了

a successful company, a successful exit.

成功的公司、成功的退場。

And recently, some of our colleagues looked at exactly that question.

最近，我們的一些同事 就在探究這個問題。

And it turns out that yes, those in the 20s and 30s

結果發現，是的，二、三十歲的人

put out a huge number of companies, form lots of companies,

成立了很多公司， 創辦了很多公司，

but most of them go bust.

但大部分都破產收場。

And when you look at the successful exits, what you see in this particular plot,

如果去看成功退場的公司， 各位在這張圖上可以看到，

the older you are, the more likely that you will actually hit the stock market

你的年紀越大， 你就越有可能上市，

or the sell the company successfully.

或者成功把公司賣掉。

This is so strong, actually, that if you are in the 50s,

這個機率強到， 如果你是五十幾歲，

you are twice as likely to actually have a successful exit

你有可能成功退場的機會，

是你三十幾歲時的兩倍。

than if you are in your 30s.

(Applause)

（掌聲）

So in the end, what is it that we see, actually?

所以，最後，這些到底是什麼意思？

What we see is that creativity has no age.

我們看到的是，創意不分年齡。

Productivity does, right?

產能倒是會有差，對吧？

Which is telling me that at the end of the day,

這就是告訴我，到頭來，

if you keep trying --

如果你繼續嘗試——

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

you could still succeed and succeed over and over.

你仍然有可能成功，且一再成功。

So my conclusion is very simple:

所以我的結論非常簡單：

I am off the stage, back in my lab.

我要下台，回到我的實驗室了。

Thank you.

謝謝。

(Applause)

（掌聲）