Stephen Petranek: 10 ways the world could end

翻译人员: Jojo Huang 校对人员: Zhu Jie

The advances that have taken place in astronomy,

在过去十年中，

cosmology and biology, in the last 10 years,

天文学，宇宙学，生物学领域取得的进步

are really extraordinary --

确实令人震惊。

to the point where we know more about our universe and how it works

以至现在，我们对宇宙及其运作有了更深入的了解，

than many of you might imagine.

而许多在座的各位是无法想象的。

But there was something else that I've noticed

然而，我注意到另一件事，

as those changes were taking place, as people were starting to find out that

世界确实是瞬息万变，人们开始发现

hmm ... yeah, there really is a black hole at the center of every galaxy.

嗯...是的，每个星系中心都存在着一个黑洞。

The science writers and editors -- I shouldn't say science writers,

科普类作家和编辑——我不用应该说科普类作家的，

I should say people who write about science --

应该是那些写着关于科学的人们——

and editors would sit down over a couple of beers,

还有编辑，会在一天辛苦的工作结束后，

after a hard day of work, and start talking about

坐下来喝一两杯啤酒，聊一聊这些让人无法置信的科学结论，

some of these incredible perceptions about how the universe works.

聊一聊宇宙的运行。

And they would inevitably end up in what I thought was a very bizarre place,

而这类的谈话总不免停滞于一个怪异的问题，至少我认为那很奇怪，

which is ways the world could end very suddenly.

就是世界将如何瞬间毁灭。

And that's what I want to talk about today. (Laughter)

这也是我今天所要讲的内容。（笑声）

Ah, you laugh, you fools. (Laughter)

啊，你们笑吧，你们这些笨蛋。（笑声）

(Voice: Can we finish up a little early?)

台下观众：如果世界就在这几分钟毁灭，也许讲座可以早点结束？

(Laughter) Yeah, we need the time!

（笑声）是啊，我们时间宝贵！

Stephen Petranek: At first, it all seemed a little fantastical to me, but after challenging a lot of these ideas,

一开始我并不相信什么世界末日的，但通过对许多可能性的质疑，

I began to take a lot of them seriously. And then September 11 happened,

我慢慢地开始严肃地对待它们。之后，911事件发生了，

and I thought, ah, God,

我想，天呐

I can't go to the TED conference and talk about how the world is going to end.

我怎么能去TED

Nobody wants to hear that. Not after this!

没有人想听这个呀。911后更没人想听了！

And that got me into a discussion with some other people, other scientists,

正因为这个，我又跟很多人，很多科学家们讨论过，

about maybe some other subjects, and one of the guys I talked to,

也许还存在其他的问题，

who was a neuroscientist, said,

其中一位神经科学家跟我说，

"You know, I think there are a lot of solutions to the problems you brought up,"

"我认为可以解决你所说的那些危机的方法有很多，

and reminds me of Michael's talk yesterday

我想到麦克昨天的演讲，

and his mother saying you can't have a solution if you don't have a problem.

他母亲告诉他，你有了问题，就不可能没有方法解决。"

So, we went out looking for solutions to ways that the world might end tomorrow,

所以，我们开始去寻找那些方法，阻止世界的毁灭，

and lo and behold, we found them.

瞧，我们找到了。

Which leads me to a videotape of a President Bush

我联想到布什总统的一个记者会，

press conference from a couple of weeks ago.

那是几周前的事了。

Can we run that, Andrew?

安德鲁，可以播放吗？

President George W. Bush: Whatever it costs to defend our security,

布什总统：“为了维护我们的安全，保卫自由，

and whatever it costs to defend our freedom, we must pay it.

要付出再大的代价，也值得。”

SP: I agree with the president.

我完全赞同。

He wants two trillion dollars to protect us from terrorists next year,

明年，布什总统准备花费2万亿美元对付恐怖主义分子，

a two-trillion-dollar federal budget, which will land us back into deficit spending real fast.

而2万亿的联邦预算将再一次加速赤字增长

But terrorists aren't the only threat we face.

——但是恐怖主义并不是唯一威胁着我们的因素。

There are really serious calamities staring us in the eye

很多严重的灾难一触即发，

that we're in the same kind of denial about

而我们一如往常地忽略它们，就如

that we were about terrorism, and what could've happened on September 11.

我们对待恐怖主义和9月11日所发生的事情一样

I would propose, therefore, that if we took 10 billion dollars

所以我建议，如果我们从那预算的2.13万亿元

from that 2.13 trillion dollar budget --

拿出100亿元出来

which is two one hundredths of that budget --

相当于预算的百分之一或百分之二

and we doled out a billion dollars to each one of these problems

同时给我要谈的这十个问题，每个问题分配10亿元

I'm going to talk to you about, the vast majority could be solved,

那么我告诉你，这些问题很大部分都能被解决。

and the rest we could deal with. So, I hope you find this both fascinating --

剩下的也可处理。所以我希望，

I'm fascinated by this kind of stuff, I gotta admit --

这些东西很吸引我，我承认

to me these are Richard's cockroaches.

对我来说，这些就如理查德的蟑螂理论般

But I also hope, because I think the people in this room can literally change the world,

但我也希望——因为我相信在座的你们可以改变世界

I hope you take some of this stuff away with you,

我希望你们能够在今天的演讲中有所收获

and when you have an opportunity to be influential,

等到你们有机会做出有影响力的事的时候

that you try to get some heavy-duty money spent on some of these ideas.

能够把钱花在这几点上

So let's start. Number 10: we lose the will to survive.

所以让我们开始吧。第十点：我们正失去存活下去的信心。

We live in an incredible age of modern medicine.

尽管我们生活在现代医学的神话时代：

We are all much healthier than we were 20 years ago.

我们比20年前更健康了，

People around the world are getting better medicine --

而且全世界的人们能得到更好的药物--

but mentally, we're falling apart.

但是精神上，我们却分崩离析

The World Health Organization now estimates

世界卫生组织（WHO）目前估计

that one out of five people on the planet is clinically depressed.

全球有五分之一的人临床上被诊断患有抑郁症。

And the World Health Organization also says that depression is the

同时世卫也强调抑郁症是

biggest epidemic that humankind has ever faced.

人类有史以来面对的最大疾病。

Soon, genetic breakthroughs and even better medicine

不久以后，基因学上的突破或更好的药物

are going to allow us to think of 100 as a normal lifespan.

会让我们觉得活到100岁也是正常。

A female child born tomorrow, on average -- median -- will live to age 83.

将来出生的女性——平均将会活到83岁

Our life longevity is going up almost a year for every year that passes.

我们的生命长度几乎每过一年就会增加一岁。

Now the problem with all of this, getting older,

现在伴随着老龄化的问题却是

is that people over 65 are the most likely people to commit suicide.

超过65岁的人属于最容易自杀的人群。

So, what are the solutions?

所以解决之道是什么？

We don't really have mental health insurance in this country,

我们的国家并非真正具有精神健康的保险

and it's -- (Applause) -- it's really a crime.

而这个——（鼓掌）——这真是个犯罪。

Something like 98 percent of all people with depression,

98%的人患有抑郁症

and I mean really severe depression

我指的是真正严重的抑郁症

-- I have a friend with stunningly severe depression

我就有个患上严重抑郁症的朋友

-- this is a curable disease, with present medicine and present technology.

抑郁症实际上在现成的药物和技术下是可以治愈的。

But it is often a combination of talk therapy and pills.

但通常是聊天治疗和药物双管齐下。

Pills alone don't do it, especially in clinically depressed people.

单纯的药物治疗是无法起作用的，尤其是对那些临床诊断为抑郁症的人来说

You ought to be able to go to a psychiatrist or a psychologist,

你应该去看精神科医师——或者心理医生，

and put down your 10-dollar copay, and get treated,

放10元钱开始你的治疗

just like you do when you got a cut on your arm. It's ridiculous.

就像你手臂割到去看医生一样。这真是荒谬。

Secondly, drug companies are not going to develop really sophisticated

其次，药品公司并不会研究真正复杂

psychoactive drugs. We know that most mental illnesses have a biological

并对精神起显著效用的药物。我们知道，大多数精神疾病都有

component that can be dealt with.

可处理的生物成分。

And we know just an amazing amount more about the brain now than we

而且我们比10年前更了解我们的大脑。

did 10 years ago. We need a pump-push from the federal government,

我们需要来自联邦政府的积极支持，

through NIH and National Science -- NSF --

通过像国家卫生研究所（NIH）及国家科学基金会（NSF）

and places like that to start helping the drug companies

等机构帮助药品公司

develop some advanced psychoactive drugs.

研制出一些高级的治疗精神的药物。

Moving on. Number nine -- don't laugh -- aliens invade Earth.

我们继续下一个话题。第九点——别笑——外星人入侵地球。

Ten years ago, you couldn't have found an astronomer --

10年前，全世界没有一个天文学家，

well, very few astronomers -- in the world who would've told you that

亦或极少数宇航员——会告诉你

there are any planets anywhere outside our solar system.

除了我们的太阳系还有其他类地星球存在。

1995, we found three. The count now is up to 80 --

但1995年我们发现了3个，现在数目已达80个，

we're finding about two or three a month.

这样算我们几乎是每个月发现2-3个。

All of the ones we've found, by the way, are in this little, teeny, tiny corner where we live,

我们所发现的这些星球，就在我们生活的银河系的

in the Milky Way. There must be millions of planets in the Milky Way,

小小角落。这就意味着整个银河系有着上百万的这样的星球。

and as Carl Sagan insisted for many years,

正如Carl Sagan多年来坚持，却被世人嘲笑的观点，

and was laughed at for it, there must be billions and billions in the universe.

全宇宙一定有不计其数这样的星球。

In a few years, NASA is going to launch four or five telescopes out to Jupiter,

不久NASA将会发送4-5个天文望远镜到木星

where there's less dust, and start looking for Earth-like planets,

那里星尘比较少，比较容易发现类地星球。

which we cannot see with present technology, nor detect.

因为以我们现有技术是无法在地球亲眼看到或侦测到这些星球。

It's becoming obvious that the chance that life does not exist elsewhere in the universe,

现在越来越显而易见的观点是，全宇宙除了地球以外不存在任何生命，并此类生命离地球很近这一观点

and probably fairly close to us, is a fairly remote idea.

已变得非常遥远。

And the chance that some of it isn't more intelligent than ours is also a remote idea.

而其中外星人并不比我们聪明也是自欺欺人。

Remember, we've only been an advanced civilization --

请记住，我们只不过是拥有进化的文明——

an industrial civilization, if you would -- for 200 years.

以及工业文明的物种，如果你算时间那也只有200年。

Although every time I go to Pompeii, I'm amazed that they had

尽管我每次去庞培，我总是惊讶于他们在每条街拐弯处都拥有

the equivalent of a McDonald's on every street corner, too.

类似于我们现在麦当劳似的连锁店。

So, I don't know how much civilization really has progressed since AD 79,

所以我并不清楚自从公元79年之后我们的文明究竟进步了多少，

but there's a great likelihood. I really believe this,

但有可能——我非常相信这点，

and I don't believe in aliens, and I don't believe there are any aliens on the Earth

并且我虽然不相信外星人——我也不相信现在地球上有外星人

or anything like that. But there's a likelihood that we will confront a

亦或任何类似于外星人的生物。但非常有可能的是，我们将来会面对一支

civilization that is more intelligent than our own.

比我们文明更发达的种族。

Now, what will happen? What if they come to, you know,

那么，会发生什么事呢？比如它们来了

suck up our oceans for the hydrogen?

为了氢吸光了我们的海洋？

And swat us away like flies, the way we swat away flies when we go into

像打苍蝇一样打我们，就如我们去热带雨林砍伐树木时

the rainforest and start logging it.

拍打苍蝇一样。

We can look at our own history. The late physicist Gerard O'Neill said,

回顾我们的历史，就如现代物理学家吉拉德 奥尼尔（Gerard O'Neill)所说，

"Advanced Western civilization has had a destructive effect

“先进的西方文明对所有其接触到的原始文明

on all primitive civilizations it has come in contact with,

产生了毁灭性的影响，

even in those cases where every attempt was made

即使作了很多努力保护及维持原始文明

to protect and guard the primitive civilization."

也是徒劳。”

If the aliens come visiting, we're the primitive civilization.

如果外星人来访，我们就是那原始文明。

So, what are the solutions to this? (Laughter)

所以解决措施是什么？（笑声）

Thank God you can all read!

感谢上帝你们都看的懂！

It may seem ridiculous, but we have a really lousy history of anticipating things like this

这看上去也许很荒谬。但我们历史上干过这事的不少，

and actually being prepared for them.

并且现在也是如此准备的。

How much energy and money does it take to actually have a plan

准备好计划与一个具有高级文明的物种谈判

to negotiate with an advanced species?

需要多少精力和金钱呢？

Secondly -- and you're going to hear more from me about this --

第二，我将会着重讲这点——

we have to become an outward-looking, space-faring nation.

我们必须成为放眼宇宙的太空使用国。

We have got to develop the

我们必须清楚

idea that the Earth doesn't last forever,

地球不是永久之计，

our sun doesn't last forever.

太阳也不会永远存在——

If we want humanity to last forever, we have to colonize the Milky Way.

如果我们想要人类物种长存，我们不得不殖民银河系。

And that is not something that is beyond comprehension at this point.

这一点上，并不难理解。

(Applause)

（鼓掌）

It'll also help us a lot, if we meet an advanced civilization along the way,

这么做也帮助了我们，如果我们遇上了一个高度文明的物种，

if we're trying to be an advanced civilization. Number eight --

亦或我们自己想变成高度文明的物种。第八点——

(Voice: Steve, that's what I'm doing after TED.) (Laughter) (Applause)

台下声音：史蒂夫，这就是我TED听完后要做的事。（笑声和掌声）

SP: You've got it! You've got the job.

你明白了真理！这份工作属于你了！

Number eight: the ecosystem collapses.

第八点：生态系统的崩溃。

Last July, in Science, the journal Science,

去年7月的科学杂志

19 oceanographers published a very, very unusual article.

19名海洋学家联名发表了一篇非常，非常特殊的文章——

It wasn't really a research report; it was a screed.

这篇文章并不是研究报告，而是篇冗长的文章。

They said, we've been looking at the oceans for a long time now,

文章里这么写道：我们一直不停的在观测海洋。

and we want to tell you they're not in trouble, they're near collapse.

我们想告诉世人的是，海洋系统现在并非是陷入困境，而是濒临崩溃。

Many other ecosystems on Earth are in real, real danger.

地球上其他生态系统也是处于非常，非常危险的境界。

We're living in a time of mass extinctions that exceeds the fossil record

我们现在正处于物种大量灭绝的时代，数据是恐龙灭绝数据

by a factor of 10,000.

的1万倍。

We have lost 25 percent of the unique species in Hawaii in the last 20 years.

在过去的20年，夏威夷已经失去了其25%的独有物种，

California is expected to lose 25 percent of its species in the next 40 years.

加利福尼亚预计在以后的40年内会失去25%的物种。

Somewhere in the Amazon forest is the marginal tree.

亚马逊雨林的某处，会有这样一种树，己剩最后一棵。

You cut down that tree, the rain forest collapses as an ecosystem.

你把那棵树砍了，整个雨林会作为同一个生态系统崩溃。

There's really a tree like that out there. That's really what it comes to.

就有一棵树是这样的存在。结果也会如此。

And when that ecosystem collapses, it could take a major ecosystem with it,

当这个生态系统崩溃之时，可能影响到另一个更大的生态系统，

like our atmosphere. So, what do we do about this? What are the solutions?

比如我们的大气层。所以我们该怎么办呢？

There is some modeling of ecosystems going on now.

我们现在在进行一些生态系统模拟试验。

The problem with ecosystems is that we understand them so poorly,

生态系统的问题是，我们对它们知之甚少，

that we don't know they're really in trouble until it's almost too late.

以至于我们不知道它们陷入困境，等到我们发现的时候就已将太迟了。

We need to know earlier that they're getting in trouble,

我们必须在它们陷入困境之前预知，

and we need to be able to pump possible solutions into models.

并能够给予模型可行的解决之道。

And with the kind of computing power we have now,

配与我们现有的电脑技术

there is, as I say, some of this going on, but it needs money.

——这就是我说的正在进行的模型试验，但需要金钱。

National Science Foundation needs to say -- you know,

国家科学基金会

almost all the money that's spent on science in this country

我们国家大多数花在科学上的资金

comes from the federal government, one way or another.

来自于联邦政府，以要么这样要么那样的方式。

And they get to prioritize, you know?

你知道项目也有优先顺序的吧？

There are people at the National Science Foundation

国家科学基金会需要人

who get to say, this is the most important thing.

站出来表示，挽救生态系统才是最重要的

This is one of the things they ought to be thinking more about.

这事他们需要考虑的事情之一。

Secondly, we need to create huge biodiversity reserves on the planet,

其次，我们必须在地球上建造大面积的生物多样性保护区。

and start moving them around.

并开始波及其他地区。

There's been an experiment for the last four or five years on the Georges Bank,

在过去的4，5年间，乔治海岸（Georges Bank)，还是

or the Grand Banks off of Newfoundland. It's a no-take fishing zone.

Newfoundland 的Grand Banks曾做过一个试验。这是一个禁止捕鱼的保护地。

They can't fish there for a radius of 200 miles.

在半径为两百英里的地区都不准人们捕鱼。

And an amazing thing has happened: almost all the fish have come back,

结果令人吃惊的事情发生了——几乎所有的鱼都回来了，

and they're reproducing like crazy. We're going to have to start doing this

并以惊人的速度繁殖。我们应该开始在全球范围内都

around the globe. We're going to have to have no-take zones.

推广这类保护区。我们要有不允许人类捕猎的地域。

We're going to have to say, no more logging in the Amazon for 20 years.

我们要说亚马逊雨林必须在20年里禁止砍伐。

Let it recover, before we start logging again.

让它复苏吧，在我们重新开始砍伐之前。

(Applause)

（鼓掌）

Number seven: particle accelerator mishap.

第七点：粒子加速器的事故灾难

You all remember Ted Kaczynski, the Unabomber?

大家都还记得Ted Kaczynski吧, 那个邮包炸弹恐怖分子？

One of the things he raved about was that a particle accelerator experiment

让他发狂的其中一件事就是粒子加速器实验

could go haywire and set off a chain reaction that would destroy the world.

可能会失去控制产生连锁反应从而毁灭世界。

A lot of very sober-minded physicists, believe it or not,

但不管你信不信，很多冷静的物理学家

have had exactly the same thought.

也有着同样的想法。

This spring -- there's a collider at Brookhaven, on Long Island --

今年春，在长岛的布鲁克黑文实验室

this spring, it's going to have an experiment in which it creates black holes.

将会有个用粒子加速器创造黑洞的实验。

They are expecting to create little, tiny black holes.

研究人员希望能够创造出非常小的黑洞

They expect them to evaporate. (Laughter)

并自行消失。（笑声）

I hope they're right. (Laughter)

我希望他们是对的。（笑声）

Other collider experiments -- there's one that's going to take place next summer

其他的加速器实验——明年夏天在CERN（欧洲原子核组织）还有一个

at CERN -- have the possibility of creating something called strangelets,

——为了创造出奇异夸克团。

which are kind of like antimatter. Whenever they hit other matter, they destroy it

这就像反物质，当它们撞击到其他物质就毁灭一切。

and obliterate it. Most physicists say that the accelerators we have now

大多数物理学家表示我们现拥有的加速器

are not really powerful enough to create black holes and strangelets

并不足够强大到能够创造出使我们忧虑的黑洞或奇异夸克团，

that we need to worry about, and they're probably right.

也许他们是对的。

But, all around the world, in Japan, in Canada,

但是——全世界范围内，在日本，加拿大——

there's talk about this, of reviving this in the United States.

有着美国正在实行此项试验的传言。

We shut one down that was going to be big.

我们关闭了一个逐渐扩大的实验。

But there's talk of building very big accelerators.

但传言是我们将要建造非常大型的加速器。

What can we do about this? What are the solutions?

我们应该怎么办呢，解决之道是什么？

We've got the fox watching the henhouse here.

我们已经在监控着实验进展。

We need to -- we need the advice of particle physicists to talk about particle physics

我们需要粒子物理学家来给我们建议，来给我们解说粒子物理及

and what should be done in particle physics,

粒子物理学的发展方向。

but we need some outside thinking and watchdogging

但同时我们也需要以外人的眼光审视和监视

of what's going on with these experiments.

这些实验的进展。

Secondly, we have a natural laboratory surrounding the Earth.

其次，我们有着一个围绕地球的天然实验室。

We have an electromagnetic field around the Earth,

地球周围环绕着磁场，

and it's constantly bombarded by high-energy particles, like protons.

并持续被高能量粒子，例如质子撞击着。

And in my opinion, we don't spend enough time

在我看来——我们并没有花费足够的时间

looking at that natural laboratory and figuring out first what's safe to do on Earth.

观测这个天然实验场并研究出首先在地球上做什么才是安全的实验。

Number six: biotech disaster.

第六点：生物科技灾难

It's one of my favorite ones, because we've done several stories on Bt corn.

这是我最喜爱的话题之一，因为我们已经在BT（苏云金芽胞杆菌）玉米上做了好几个类似的实验。

Bt corn is a corn that creates its own pesticide to kill a corn borer.

BT 玉米能够自行产生杀虫剂来消灭其天敌玉米螟。

You may of heard of it -- heard it called StarLink,

你可能听说过它——又名Starling，

especially when all those taco shells were taken out of the supermarkets

特别是这些玉米卷在一年半前

about a year and a half ago.

从超市里下架的时候。

This stuff was supposed to only be feed for animals in the United States,

这种农产品在美国只能用来喂养动物，

and it got into the human food supply, and somebody should've figured out

但却进入了人类的食物链，应该有人清楚

that it would get in the human food supply very easily.

这是非常容易的。

But the thing that's alarming is a couple of months ago, in Mexico,

事情发生在几个月以前，在墨西哥这个

where Bt corn and all genetically altered corn is totally illegal,

BT玉米和其他转基因玉米都属于非法的地区，

they found Bt corn genes in wild corn plants.

有人发现野生的玉米基因中出现了BT玉米基因。

Now, corn originated, we think, in Mexico.

我们猜想，在墨西哥玉米已开始改变。

This is the genetic biodiversity storehouse of corn.

这里是玉米的起源地，是玉米基因多样性的储存地。

This brings back a skepticism that has gone away recently,

这就带来了最近才淡去的怀疑理论，

that superweeds and superpests could spread around the world,

那就是超级杂草和超级害虫将有一天由于生物科技而霸占全球，

from biotechnology, that literally could destroy the world's food supply

并在理论上迅速毁掉全球的

in very short order.

食物供应。

So, what do we do about that?

所以我们该怎么做呢？

We treat biotechnology with the same scrutiny we apply to nuclear power plants.

我们应该像对待核设施一样对待生物科技，怀有等同的审慎之心。

It's that simple. This is an amazingly unregulated field.

就是这么简单，因为这是一个令人惊讶的无人管辖的领域。

When the StarLink disaster happened, there was a battle between the

当Starling玉米灾难发生的时候，环境保护局（EPA）却和

EPA and the FDA over who really had authority, and over what parts of this,

食品及药物管理局（FDA）就谁有权负责这事，负责此事的什么部分争吵起来，

and they didn't get it straightened out for months. That's kind of crazy.

吵了几个月都没个结果。这真是疯了！

Number five, one of my favorites: reversal of the Earth's magnetic field.

第5点，也是我最喜爱的话题之一：地球磁极颠倒。

Believe it or not, this happens every few hundred thousand years,

信不信由你，这件事每几十万年发生一次，

and has happened many times in our history.

而且在历史上已发生过很多次——

North Pole goes to the South, South Pole goes to the North, and vice versa.

北极变成了南极，南极变成了北极，然后再次颠倒。

But what happens, as this occurs,

但在这颠倒的过程中，

is that we lose our magnetic field around the Earth over the period of about 100 years,

我们将会失去环绕地球的磁场大概100年。

and that means that all these cosmic rays and particles

这就意味着宇宙射线和颗粒

that are to come streaming at us from the sun,

会直接从太阳向我们涌来。

that this field protects us from, are -- well, basically, we're gonna fry. (Laughter)

我们失去了地球磁场的保护——那么结果是，我们将被烤焦。（笑声）

(Voice: Steve, I have some additional hats downstairs.)

台下人声：史蒂夫我在楼下有些额外的帽子。

SP: So, what can we do about this? Oh, by the way, we're overdue.

所以我们该如何是好？噢，顺便提一下，磁极颠倒已经大大推迟了——

It's been 780,000 years since this happened.

上次磁极颠倒的时间是78万年前。

So, it should have happened about 480,000 years ago.

所以，48万年前本该再发生一次的。

Oh, and here's one other thing.

噢，还有一件事

Scientists think now our magnetic field may be diminished by about five percent.

——科学家认为地球的磁场现在已经削弱了5%。

So, maybe we're in the throes of it.

所以也许我们已经在经历磁场巨变了。

One of the problems of trying to figure out how healthy the Earth is,

想要测出地球健康程度的一个麻烦在于

is that we have -- you know, we don't have good weather data from 60 years ago,

——从60年前开始我们就没有好的气像数据。

much less data on things like the ozone layer.

其他事物例如臭氧层的数据更是少之又少。

So, there's a fairly simple solution to this.

所以，解决之道很简单。

There's going to be a lot of cheap rocketry that's going to come online

在6，7年内网上将充斥着大量的廉价

in about six or seven years

火箭研究资源，

that gets us into the low atmosphere very cheaply.

能够使我们更为便宜的到达低气层。

You know, we can make ozone from car tailpipes.

我们可以利用汽车的排气管制造臭氧层。

It's not hard: it's just three oxygen atoms.

这并不难——只是臭氧而已。

If you brought the entire ozone layer down to the surface of the Earth,

如果你把整个臭氧层拿到地球表面观看，

it would be the thickness of two pennies, at 14 pounds per square inch.

你会发现它只有两便士一样厚，每平方英寸14镑重。

You don't need that much up there.

看来并不多。

We need to learn how to repair and replenish the Earth's ozone layer.

我们得学习如何修补和补充地球的臭氧层。

(Applause)

（掌声）

Number four: giant solar flares.

第四点：巨型太阳耀斑。

Solar flares are enormous magnetic outbursts from the Sun

太阳耀斑是来自太阳的巨大磁能爆发

that bombard the Earth with high-speed subatomic particles.

伴随着高速的原子粒冲击地球。

So far, our atmosphere has done, and our magnetic field has done

迄今为止我们的大气层及磁场已

pretty well protecting us from this.

很好地保护我们远离这些危险。

Occasionally, we get a flare from the Sun that causes havoc

时不时的，太阳耀斑给我们的

with communications and so forth, and electricity.

通讯和电力造成很大影响甚至破坏。

But the alarming thing is that astronomers recently have been studying

但令人警醒的是，近来天文学家通过对

stars that are similar to our Sun,

与太阳相似的恒星研究发现

and they've found that a number of them, when they're about the age of our Sun,

其中一些恒星当到了跟太阳年龄相同的时候，

brighten by a factor of as much as 20. Doesn't last for very long.

光度是原来的20倍，并维持不了很长时间。

And they think these are super-flares, millions of times more powerful

他们认为这些是超强恒星耀斑，比我们迄今发现的太阳耀斑的

than any flares we've had from our Sun so far.

强度大几百万倍。

Obviously, we don't want one of those. (Laughter)

明显我们不想碰到它们其中的任一个。（笑声）

There's a flip side to it. In studying stars

但另一方面——在研究类日恒星的过程中

like our Sun, we've found that they go through periods of diminishment,

我们发现它们会经历一系列衰老消亡，

when their total amount of energy that's expelled from them

而它们的能量也

goes down by maybe one percent.

散发掉大概1%。

One percent doesn't sound like a lot, but it would cause one hell of an ice age here.

听起来1%并不多，但却有可能导致地球回到冰河时期。

So, what can we do about this?

所以我们该如何做呢？

(Laughter) Start terraforming Mars. This is one of my favorite subjects.

（笑声）开始改造火星。这是我最喜爱的话题之一，

I wrote a story about this in Life magazine in 1993.

还在1993年于《生命》周刊上特地为此撰文。

This is rocket science, but it's not hard rocket science.

这是火箭科学，却不难懂。

Everything that we need to make an atmosphere on Mars,

我们所需的能在火星上建造大气层，

and to make a livable planet on Mars, is probably there.

及可以生存环境的一切东西，都可能在火星上存在。

And you just, literally, have to send little nuclear factories up there

而我们所要做的理论上只是建造几个小型的核工厂，

that gobble up the iron oxide on the surface of Mars and spit out the oxygen.

大量吞噬掉火星表面的氧化铁而释放出氧气。

The problem is it takes 300 years to terraform Mars, minimum.

问题是改造火星至少需要300年。

Really more like 500 years to do it right.

真正做好这事要需500年。

There's no reason why we shouldn't start now. (Laughter)

没有理由不立即开始嘛！（笑声）

Number three -- isn't this stuff cool? (Laughter)

第三点——这个酷吧？（笑声）

A new global epidemic. People have been at war with germs

——一个新的全球性传染病。人类自从诞生之时开始，

ever since there have been people,

就不断与细菌做斗争，

and from time to time, the germs sure get the upper hand.

而且常常是细菌占了上风。

In 1918, we had a flu epidemic in the United States that killed 20 million people.

1918年，美国爆发了一次流感死了2000万人，

That was back when the population was around 100 million people.

而当时人口仅有1亿。

The bubonic plague in Europe, in the Middle Ages,

中世纪在欧洲爆发的淋巴腺鼠疫，

killed one out of four Europeans.

欧洲死了四分之一人口。

AIDS is coming back. Ebola seems to be rearing its head

艾滋病卷土重来，伊波拉病毒也有抬头之势

with much too much frequency,

多处发生，

and old diseases like cholera are becoming resistant to antibiotics.

那些老疾病，比如说霍乱也变得对抗生素有抵抗性。

We've all learned what -- the kind of panic that can occur

我们都知道当这些陈旧疾病重新爆发的

when an old disease rears its head, like anthrax.

时候，会给人们带来多少痛苦，例如炭疽热。

The worst possibility is that a very simple germ, like staph,

最坏的可能性是最简单的细菌，例如葡萄球菌。虽然我们仍有对其

for which we have one antibiotic that still works, mutates.

有效的抗菌素，但是其已发生变异。

And we know staph can do amazing things.

我们知道葡萄球菌是令人吃惊的细菌。

A staph cell can be next to a muscle cell in your body and borrow genes from it

当抗生素靠近的时候，人体内靠近肌肉细胞的葡萄球菌可以从肌肉细胞中借出基因，

when antibiotics come, and change and mutate.

从而变异。

The danger is that some germ like staph will be --

危险之处在于，一些细菌例如葡萄球菌将会——

will mutate into something that's really virulent, very contagious,

变异成一种非常致命及传播性的细菌，

and will sweep through populations before we can do anything about it.

会在我们能采取行动之前就席卷全人类。

That's happened before. About 12,000 years ago,

这事以前也发生过，在大概一万两千年前，

there was a massive wave of mammal extinctions in the Americas,

在美洲发生过大规模的哺乳动物灭绝。

and that is thought to have been a virulent disease.

据说这就是由一种致命疾病引起的。

So, what can we do about it?

所以我们该怎么办呢？

It is nuts. We give antibiotics -- (Applause) --

这真是疯了。我们每天给——（掌声）

every cow, every lamb, every chicken, they get antibiotics every day, all.

每头牛，每只羊，每只鸡都注入抗生素，

You know, you go to a restaurant, you eat fish, I got news for you,

所有食物——你知道，当你去餐厅吃鱼的时候，我告诉你，

it's all farmed. You know, you gotta ask when you go to a restaurant if it's a wild fish,

这鱼也是饲料鱼。然后你会问餐馆这鱼是否是野生的，

cause they're not going to tell you. We're giving away the code.

因为餐馆是不会自觉告诉你的。我们正在泄露密码——

This is like being at war and giving somebody your secret code.

这就像打仗一样，我们把密码泄露给了敌方。

We're telling the germs out there how to fight us.

——我们正在告诉细菌们如何跟我们作战的方法。

We gotta fix that. We gotta outlaw that right away.

我们要解决这点，我们要在法律上采取行动，把这些行为制定为非法。

Secondly, our public health system, as we saw with anthrax, is a real disaster.

其次，我们的公共卫生系统是一个灾难，正如炭疽热见证的那样。

We have a real, major outbreak of disease in the United States,

在美国有个如此之大的疾病爆发，

we are not prepared to cope with it.

而我们却完全没准备。

Now, there is money in the federal budget, next year,

明年联邦预算中将会有一笔钱运用于

to build up the public health service.

建造公共卫生服务系统。

But I don't think to any extent that it really needs to be done.

但我不认为有任何理由需要作出此行为。

Number two -- my favorite -- we meet a rogue black hole.

第二点——我最爱的——我们会遇到一个流氓黑洞。

You know, 10 years ago, or 15 years ago, really,

10年前——亦或15年前，

you walk into an astronomy convention, and you say,

当你在天文学大会上发言，

"You know, there's probably a black hole at the center of every galaxy,"

说，“你知道，很有可能每个银河系的中心都有个黑洞。”

and they're going to hoot you off the stage.

那你就会被人轰下台。

And now, if you went into one of those conventions and you said,

但现在，倘若你在大会上说，

"Well, I don't think black holes are out there," they'd hoot you off the stage.

“唔，我不觉得那里有黑洞。”那你才会被轰下台。

Our comprehension of the way the universe works is really --

我们对宇宙运行方式的理解

has just gained unbelievably in recent years.

在近年来是突飞猛进。

We think that there are about 10 million dead stars in the Milky Way alone, our galaxy.

据说单单银河系就有大概1000万的死亡恒星，

And these stars have compressed down to maybe something like 12, 15 miles wide,

这些恒星压缩成直径大概12，或15英里的物质，

and they are black holes. And they are gobbling up everything around them,

这就是黑洞。它们能吞噬周围的任何物质，

including light, which is why we can't see them.

甚至包括光，这就是为什么我们看不到它们。

Most of them should be in orbit around something.

大多数黑洞绕着某些东西的固定轨道飞行，

But galaxies are very violent places, and things can be spun out of orbit.

但星系是个极不稳定的空间，物体很容易脱离轨道。

And also, space is incredibly vast.

并且，这个空间无限大。

So even if you flung a million of these things out of orbit,

所以即使有一百万个黑洞脱离轨道，

the chances that one would actually hit us is fairly remote.

其中一个能够击中我们的机会也是极其渺小的。

But it only has to get close, about a billion miles away, one of these things.

但是——它只要靠近了地球，即使是在十亿英里之外，

About a billion miles away, here's what happens to Earth's orbit:

地球运行的轨道就会发生改变——

it becomes elliptical instead of circular.

会变成椭圆地运行，而非圆形。

And for three months out of the year,

这样一年中有三个月，

the surface temperatures go up to 150 to 180.

地球表面温度会达到150至180度之间。

For three months out of the year, they go to 50 below zero.

然后三个月，温度会骤降到零下50度。

That won't work too well. What can we do about this?

这样就不妙了。我们该怎么做呢？

And this is my scariest. (Laughter)

而这是我最怕的！——（笑声）

I don't have a good answer for this one.

因为对此问题我没有个好的答案。

Again, we gotta think about being a colonizing race.

我们再次会想到，成为一个殖民的种族。

And finally, number one: biggest danger to life as we know it, I think,

最后，第一点——我想也是我们生命中最大的威胁，

a really big asteroid heads for Earth.

那就是有一颗体积较大的小行星撞击地球。

The important thing to remember here -- this is not a question of if,

这里很重要的一点需要记住的是——不是怀疑它的可能性，

this is a question of when, and how big.

而是什么时候，有多大。

In 1908, just a 200-foot piece of a comet

1908年，有一颗大概200英寸的彗星碎片——

exploded over Siberia and flattened forests for maybe 100 miles.

在西伯利亚坠毁，铲平了方圆大概100英里的树木。

It had the effect of about 1,000 Hiroshima bombs.

它的效果相当于1000颗当时投在广岛的原子弹。

Astronomers estimate that little asteroids like that come about every hundred years.

天文学家估计小行星每几百年造访地球一次。

In 1989, a large asteroid passed 400,000 miles away from Earth.

1989年一个大型的小行星刚和地球擦肩而过相差仅大概40万英里。

Nothing to worry about, right?

没什么需要担心的，是不？

It passed directly through Earth's orbit. We were in that that spot six hours earlier.

它直接穿过地球的轨道，而地球在6个小时前就运行在那点上。

A small asteroid, say a half mile wide, would touch off firestorms

一颗大概直径半英里的小行星，可能会引起风暴性大火

followed by severe global cooling from the debris kicked up --

紧跟着残骸产生的极度严寒遍及全球——

Carl Sagan's nuclear winter thing.

卡尔 萨根所描述的核冬天——

An asteroid five miles wide causes major extinctions.

直径5英里的小行星导致的大灭绝——

We think the one that got the dinosaurs was about five miles wide.

我们认为当时导致恐龙灭绝的就是个直径5英里的小行星。

Where are they? There's something called the Kuiper belt,

它们是什么？它们被称作柯伊伯带，

which -- some people think Pluto's not a planet,

是个——一些人认为冥王星不是星球，

that's where Pluto is, it's in the Kuiper belt.

柯伊伯带就是冥王星所在地。

There's also something a little farther out, called the Oort cloud.

稍远之处被称作奥尔特云。

There are about 100,000 balls of ice and rock -- comets, really --

那里堆积了约10万个冰封的石头——实际上就是彗星

out there, that are 50 miles in diameter or more,

直径均为50英里或更大，

and they regularly take a little spin,

规律地面朝太阳旋转着

in towards the Sun and pass reasonably close to us.

并合理的从地球旁驶过。

Of more concern, I think, is the asteroids that exist between Mars and Jupiter.

我更关注的是火星和木星之间的小行星。

The folks at the Sloan Digital Sky Survey told us last fall --

斯隆数字巡天勘探中心人员去年秋季告诉我们——

they're making the first map of the universe, three-dimensional map of the universe --

他们正在绘制宇宙的第一张三维地图，

that there are probably 700,000 asteroids between Mars and Jupiter

其中火星和木星之间就有70万个小行星

that are a half a mile big or bigger.

大概有半英里甚至更大。

So you say, yeah, well, what are really the chances of this happening?

你也许会问，这种事发生的几率是多少？

Andrew, can you put that chart up?

安德鲁，能否帮我打开图表？

This is a chart that Dr. Clark Chapman at the Southwest Research Institute

这是西南研究所的克拉克查普曼博士所绘制的图表，

presented to Congress a few years ago.

并在几年前提交给了国会。

You'll notice that the chance of an asteroid-slash-comet impact killing you

根据他们调查结果，你会发现小行星撞击灭绝人类的

is about one in 20,000, according to the work they've done.

几率是2万分之1.

Now look at the one right below that.

让我们看看正下方的数据。

Passenger aircraft crash, one in 20,000.

旅客飞机失事几率，2万分之1.

We spend an awful lot of money trying to be sure that we don't die in airplane accidents,

我们花大笔钱期望我们不会死于飞机事故，

and we're not spending hardly anything on this. And yet, this is completely preventable.

尽管这是完全可以预防的。

We finally have, just in the last year, the technology to stop this cold.

去年我们最终拥有阻止这个冷局的技术。

Could we have the solutions?

解决之道是什么？

NASA's spending three million dollars a year, three million bucks --

NASA每年仅花费300万元来搜索小行星——300万元啊

that is like pocket change -- to search for asteroids.

根本不值得一提。

Because we can actually figure out every asteroid that's out there,

因为我们能够对每个小行星进行辨认，

and if it might hit Earth, and when it might hit Earth.

知道它们是否会撞上地球及发生的时间。

And they're trying to do that.

这就是他们正在尝试计算的事。

But it's going to take them 10 years, at spending three million dollars a year,

但是每年只花300万元，这样要花费10年才能算出来，

and even then, they claim they'll only have about 80 percent of them catalogued.

而且即使这样他们也宣称只有80%的小行星编录在案。

Comets are a tougher act.

彗星是个更难处理的玩意。

We don't really have the technology to predict comet trajectories,

我们还未拥有能够预测出彗星轨道的技术，

or when one with our name on it might arrive.

或者算出其中这些我们命名的彗星啥时能够到访。

But we would have lots of time, if we see it coming.

但如果有来我们也仍有大量时间。

We really need a dedicated observatory.

我们真正需要的是专人看管的天文台。

You'll notice that a lot of comets are named after people you never heard of,

你会注意到大多数彗星都是以你未曾听说过的名字命名的——

amateur astronomers? That's because nobody's looking for them, except amateurs.

而且这些人都是业余天文学家？这是因为除了这些业余天文爱好者，没人在寻找彗星。

We need a dedicated observatory that looks for comets.

我们需要有个专人看管的天文台专门寻找彗星。

Part two of the solutions: we need to figure out how to blow up an asteroid,

解决方法之二——我们得找出炸掉一个小行星，

or alter its trajectory. Now, a year ago, we did an amazing thing.

亦或改变其轨道的方法。一年前，我们做了件令人惊叹的事。

We sent a probe out to this asteroid belt,

我们向小行星带发送了一个探测器，

called NEAR, Near Earth Asteroid Rendezvous.

叫做NEAR，也就是近地小行星探测器。

And these guys orbited a 30 -- or no, about a 22-mile long asteroid called Eros.

让它绕着一个叫做厄里斯的长约22英里的小行星飞行。

And then, of course, you know, they pulled one of those sneaky NASA things,

后来由于有额外的电池，能源等物质，

where they had extra batteries and extra gas aboard and everything,

他们成功地在最后一分钟把NASA里某些“隐晦”的装备拉出，

and then, at the last minute, they landed.

并着陆——

When the mission was over, they actually landed on the thing.

任务完成之时他们是真的成功着陆在那个彗星之上了。

We have landed a rocket ship on an asteroid. It's not a big deal.

我们在小行星上着陆过火箭飞船，这件事也算容易。

Now, the trouble with just sending a bomb out for this thing

现在问题就在于如何把炸弹送往行星。

is that you don't have anything to push against in space, because there's no air.

因为在宇宙空间里没有空气，就无法推动运行。

A nuclear explosion is just as hot,

核爆炸也许可行，

but we don't really have anything big enough to melt a 22-mile long asteroid,

但我们没有足够大能够炸掉22英里长的小行星的核弹。

or vaporize it, would be more like it.

亦或能够使之蒸发。

But we can learn to land on these asteroids that have our name on them

但我们能够着陆在这些由我们命名的行星上，

and put something like a small ion propulsion motor on it,

并予之一个离子推进器，

which would gently, slowly, after a period of time, push it into a different trajectory,

能够缓慢的在一段时间内将行星改道，

which, if we've done our math right, would keep it from hitting Earth.

如果我们计算无误，就能够阻止它撞向地球。

This is just a matter of finding 'em, going there, and doing something about it.

这只是找到它们，到达它们，并对它们作出行动的问题。

I know your head is spinning from all this stuff.

我知道你们已经听的头昏脑胀了，

Yikes! So many big threats!

哎呀！竟然有这么多的威胁！

The thing, I think, to remember, is September 11.

我想我们要记住的，是9月11号发生的事。

We don't want to get caught flat-footed again.

我们不想再毫无准备惊慌失措了。

We know about this stuff.

我们知道这件事。

Science has the power to predict the future in many cases now.

现在科学能够对未来很多事作出预测，

Knowledge is power.

知识就是力量。

The worst thing we can do is say, jeez, I got enough to worry about

最糟糕的事是我们只是叹气，说着除了担心小行星外

without worrying about an asteroid. (Laughter)

已有太多事使我们忧心忡忡了。

That's a mistake that could literally cost us our future.

这是个在理论上能够结束我们未来的错误。

Thank you.

谢谢。