Stephen Petranek: 10 ways the world could end

譯者: Xiujian Xie 審譯者: Josie Chen

The advances that have taken place in astronomy,

在過去的十年中，我們在天文學

cosmology and biology, in the last 10 years,

宇宙學與生物學中所取得的進展

are really extraordinary --

著實令人驚奇——

to the point where we know more about our universe and how it works

我們對於宇宙本身及其運轉方式的瞭解程度

than many of you might imagine.

可能已經遠遠超出各位的想像。

But there was something else that I've noticed

但除此之外我還注意到

as those changes were taking place, as people were starting to find out that

正當萬物悄然變遷之時，正如人們開始發現的那樣

hmm ... yeah, there really is a black hole at the center of every galaxy.

恩......不錯，在每一個星系中央真的都有一個黑洞。

The science writers and editors -- I shouldn't say science writers,

科普作家和編輯們——我不應該叫他們『科普作家』，

I should say people who write about science --

而應該叫『那些以科學為寫作題材的人』

and editors would sit down over a couple of beers,

——在一天的辛苦工作結束後，他們和編輯們會一同坐下

after a hard day of work, and start talking about

飲著啤酒，然後便開始討論這些

some of these incredible perceptions about how the universe works.

難以置信的關於宇宙如何運行的理論。

And they would inevitably end up in what I thought was a very bizarre place,

而這談話將不可避免地以一個我認為相當詭異的話題來結束，

which is ways the world could end very suddenly.

那即是：世界瞬間滅亡的數種方式。

And that's what I want to talk about today. (Laughter)

而那正是我今天要談論的話題。（笑）

Ah, you laugh, you fools. (Laughter)

哈，你們笑吧，這些笨蛋。（笑）

(Voice: Can we finish up a little early?)

台下觀眾：我們能早些結束嗎？

(Laughter) Yeah, we need the time!

（笑）是啊，我們要把握好時間！

Stephen Petranek: At first, it all seemed a little fantastical to me, but after challenging a lot of these ideas,

起初我覺得這個問題有點空穴來風，但當思索了很多這方面的問題之後，

I began to take a lot of them seriously. And then September 11 happened,

我開始嚴肅地看待這些問題。隨後就發生了911事件，

and I thought, ah, God,

然後我就想，噢，天呐，

I can't go to the TED conference and talk about how the world is going to end.

我可不能到TED去談論世界將如何滅亡。

Nobody wants to hear that. Not after this!

因為沒有人想聽那個話題。在911之後沒有人還想聽！

And that got me into a discussion with some other people, other scientists,

因此我與一些其他的人，其他的科學家

about maybe some other subjects, and one of the guys I talked to,

就一些其他的話題展開了討論，而這其中參與討論的一人

who was a neuroscientist, said,

是一位神經學家，他說，

"You know, I think there are a lot of solutions to the problems you brought up,"

你知道嗎，我認為你提出的問題有很多的解決辦法，

and reminds me of Michael's talk yesterday

這使我想起麥克（Michael）昨天的演講

and his mother saying you can't have a solution if you don't have a problem.

他的母親對他說：如果你提不出問題，就不會有一個與之相應的解決方案。

So, we went out looking for solutions to ways that the world might end tomorrow,

因此我們出發去尋找能拯救世界的方法。

and lo and behold, we found them.

喏，你們看，我們找到了。

Which leads me to a videotape of a President Bush

那就是一卷紀錄了布希總統

press conference from a couple of weeks ago.

幾個星期之前舉行的一場記者招待會的錄影帶。

Can we run that, Andrew?

Andrew 能播放一下那錄影帶嗎？

President George W. Bush: Whatever it costs to defend our security,

布希總統：『無論保衛國家安全的代價多麼高昂，

and whatever it costs to defend our freedom, we must pay it.

無論捍衛自由的代價多麼高昂，我們都必須支付。』

SP: I agree with the president.

我同意總統所說的話。

He wants two trillion dollars to protect us from terrorists next year,

明年他打算將兩兆美元的經費來於對抗恐怖分子，

a two-trillion-dollar federal budget, which will land us back into deficit spending real fast.

而兩兆美元的聯邦財政預算會使我們很快陷入財政赤字，

But terrorists aren't the only threat we face.

-- 但恐怖分子不是我們面臨的唯一威脅。

There are really serious calamities staring us in the eye

還有一些危險藏在暗處，

that we're in the same kind of denial about

我們還未能對其察覺，

that we were about terrorism, and what could've happened on September 11.

就像當時我們不曾預測恐怖主義在9月11號降臨一樣。

I would propose, therefore, that if we took 10 billion dollars

我敢說，如果我們從那2.13萬億美元的財政預算中，

from that 2.13 trillion dollar budget --

拿出100億美元

which is two one hundredths of that budget --

——也就是預算總額的1%或者2%

and we doled out a billion dollars to each one of these problems

——來分作十份分別派給我將要談論的十個問題，

I'm going to talk to you about, the vast majority could be solved,

那麼大部份的問題便可迎刃而解了，

and the rest we could deal with. So, I hope you find this both fascinating --

而剩下的我們也可以著手處理。因此我希望你們能看到這樣做的好處——

I'm fascinated by this kind of stuff, I gotta admit --

我得承認我被這些想法給迷住了——

to me these are Richard's cockroaches.

對我來說他們就是——理查的螳螂(Richard's cockroaches)。

But I also hope, because I think the people in this room can literally change the world,

但我也同時希望——因為我認為在座的各位確實能改變世界

I hope you take some of this stuff away with you,

——我希望你們能夠參與，

and when you have an opportunity to be influential,

而且在你們成為有影響力的公眾人物之後，

that you try to get some heavy-duty money spent on some of these ideas.

能努力募集資金來解決這些問題。

So let's start. Number 10: we lose the will to survive.

那麼我們就開始吧。問題10：我們對生存失去了信心。

We live in an incredible age of modern medicine.

我們活在一個現代醫學的神話時代；

We are all much healthier than we were 20 years ago.

我們比起20年前的自己要健康多了。

People around the world are getting better medicine --

人們能獲得更好的藥物——

but mentally, we're falling apart.

但我們的精神世界卻支離破碎。

The World Health Organization now estimates

世界衛生組織(WHO)估計

that one out of five people on the planet is clinically depressed.

世界上每五個人之中就有一個得了臨床所稱的憂鬱症。

And the World Health Organization also says that depression is the

世界衛生組織(WHO)還說憂鬱是

biggest epidemic that humankind has ever faced.

人類有史以來，所面臨的疫情最大的傳染病。

Soon, genetic breakthroughs and even better medicine

很快地，在基因學方面取得的突破，和更好的藥物

are going to allow us to think of 100 as a normal lifespan.

會讓我們覺得活到100歲也不是問題。

A female child born tomorrow, on average -- median -- will live to age 83.

未來女性的平均年齡——或者取其中值——將達到83歲。

Our life longevity is going up almost a year for every year that passes.

每一年我們的壽命都會延長一歲。

Now the problem with all of this, getting older,

但隨之產生的問題是

is that people over 65 are the most likely people to commit suicide.

65歲以上的人群的自殺傾向最高。

So, what are the solutions?

該如何解決呢？

We don't really have mental health insurance in this country,

美國還沒有針對『心理健康』的保險，

and it's -- (Applause) -- it's really a crime.

而這——（掌聲）——這真是一個罪過。

Something like 98 percent of all people with depression,

98%的人患有憂鬱症——

and I mean really severe depression

我指的是那些患有嚴重憂鬱症的人

-- I have a friend with stunningly severe depression

——我有一位朋友就有非常嚴重的憂鬱症

-- this is a curable disease, with present medicine and present technology.

——而當今的醫藥和技術是可以治療憂鬱症的。

But it is often a combination of talk therapy and pills.

但通常其治療方案是心理輔導與藥物的結合。

Pills alone don't do it, especially in clinically depressed people.

光吃藥是沒用的，尤其對那些患有臨床憂鬱的人來說。

You ought to be able to go to a psychiatrist or a psychologist,

你還得去看精神科專家——或者心理醫生——

and put down your 10-dollar copay, and get treated,

一次的治療得花去你10美元大洋，

just like you do when you got a cut on your arm. It's ridiculous.

跟手臂割傷的治療費用差不多。這也太荒謬了。

Secondly, drug companies are not going to develop really sophisticated

其次，製藥公司還無法製造出真正有效的精神藥物

psychoactive drugs. We know that most mental illnesses have a biological

而我們知道大多數的精神疾病都有一些

component that can be dealt with.

可以被控制的生物成份。

And we know just an amazing amount more about the brain now than we

而我們現在對大腦的瞭解也比10年前深入很多。

did 10 years ago. We need a pump-push from the federal government,

我們需要聯邦政府、國家衛生研究所(NIH)

through NIH and National Science -- NSF --

國家科學基金會(NSF)或者其它相關機構

and places like that to start helping the drug companies

的鼎力協助，從而幫助製藥公司

develop some advanced psychoactive drugs.

開發一些先進的精神類藥物。

Moving on. Number nine -- don't laugh -- aliens invade Earth.

好下一話題。問題9——不要笑——外星人入侵地球。

Ten years ago, you couldn't have found an astronomer --

10年前，你還找不到1位天文學家——

well, very few astronomers -- in the world who would've told you that

恩，或者只有極少的天文學家——會告訴你

there are any planets anywhere outside our solar system.

在太陽系之外的任何地方都有行星存在。

1995, we found three. The count now is up to 80 --

1995年我們發現了三個，而現在已經多達80個。

we're finding about two or three a month.

也就是一個月發現兩到三個。

All of the ones we've found, by the way, are in this little, teeny, tiny corner where we live,

順便說一句，我們所發現的這些行星，都位於我們身處的這個狹小空間之內，

in the Milky Way. There must be millions of planets in the Milky Way,

都未脫離銀河系。銀河系中有肯定有上百萬顆星星，

and as Carl Sagan insisted for many years,

而正如卡爾•薩根(Carl Sagan)堅持數年，

and was laughed at for it, there must be billions and billions in the universe.

也被嘲笑數年的說法一樣，宇宙中一定有不計其數顆行星。

In a few years, NASA is going to launch four or five telescopes out to Jupiter,

幾年之內NASA會發射四到五個天文望遠鏡至木星上，

where there's less dust, and start looking for Earth-like planets,

木星上的塵埃較少，因此對類地行星的搜尋將在那裡展開，

which we cannot see with present technology, nor detect.

而僅憑目前技術我們還不能實現類似的觀測。

It's becoming obvious that the chance that life does not exist elsewhere in the universe,

現在看來，宇宙中只有地球上存有生物的觀點

and probably fairly close to us, is a fairly remote idea.

與地球附近就有能孕育生命的星球的觀點都是不切實際的想法。

And the chance that some of it isn't more intelligent than ours is also a remote idea.

再者，想像一些其他星球的生命都不如我們智能也同樣不切實際。

Remember, we've only been an advanced civilization --

要知道，我們的先進文化——

an industrial civilization, if you would -- for 200 years.

一種工業文化，如果你稍微想一想——也僅有200年歷史而已。

Although every time I go to Pompeii, I'm amazed that they had

縱使每次我去龐貝(Pompeii)都會為那里

the equivalent of a McDonald's on every street corner, too.

每個街角所開設的與麥當勞不相上下的店感到震驚。

So, I don't know how much civilization really has progressed since AD 79,

因此我并不認為我們的文明自公元79年之後進步了多少，

but there's a great likelihood. I really believe this,

但同時也很有可能——我對此確信無疑，

and I don't believe in aliens, and I don't believe there are any aliens on the Earth

我不相信外星人理論，而——我也不相信在地球上有外星人或

or anything like that. But there's a likelihood that we will confront a

類似的物種存在。但有可能我們在未來會遇上一個

civilization that is more intelligent than our own.

比我們的文明更加先進的物種。

Now, what will happen? What if they come to, you know,

那麼那個時候會發生什麽呢？如果他們來吸乾

suck up our oceans for the hydrogen?

我們的海洋以獲取氫氣呢？

And swat us away like flies, the way we swat away flies when we go into

如果它們像拍蒼蠅似地驅趕我們，就像我們在熱帶雨林中

the rainforest and start logging it.

伐木時那樣驅趕蒼蠅?

We can look at our own history. The late physicist Gerard O'Neill said,

我們可看看自己的歷史——已故物理學家傑勒德•奧尼爾(Gerard O'Neill)曾說，

"Advanced Western civilization has had a destructive effect

『先進的西方文明對它所牽涉到的

on all primitive civilizations it has come in contact with,

一切原始文明都有摧毀作用，

even in those cases where every attempt was made

就算有時人們盡了全力去捍衛原始文化，

to protect and guard the primitive civilization."

也無濟於事。』

If the aliens come visiting, we're the primitive civilization.

而如果外星人造訪地球，我們就是那原始的文明。

So, what are the solutions to this? (Laughter)

那麼這個問題怎麼解決呢？（笑）

Thank God you can all read!

感謝上帝各位都識字啊！

It may seem ridiculous, but we have a really lousy history of anticipating things like this

這看起來或許荒謬，但在過去我們在這個領域

and actually being prepared for them.

的預測和實質準備工作上都相當不足。

How much energy and money does it take to actually have a plan

制定一個與先進物種交涉的計劃

to negotiate with an advanced species?

需要耗費多少精力和財力呢？

Secondly -- and you're going to hear more from me about this --

這第二點，是我將著重闡述的——

we have to become an outward-looking, space-faring nation.

我們的國家必須放眼地球之外，拓取外太空。

We have got to develop the

我們必須進一步強化

idea that the Earth doesn't last forever,

地球不會永存的觀點，

our sun doesn't last forever.

強化太陽不會永存的觀點——

If we want humanity to last forever, we have to colonize the Milky Way.

如果我們希望人類永存則必須殖民銀河系。

And that is not something that is beyond comprehension at this point.

而那現在不是什麽不可想像的事情。

(Applause)

（掌聲）

It'll also help us a lot, if we meet an advanced civilization along the way,

這麼做對我們也大有好處，如果在開拓的過程中我們遇上了另一隻先進物種，

if we're trying to be an advanced civilization. Number eight --

如果我們試圖成為一隻先進的物種。問題8——

(Voice: Steve, that's what I'm doing after TED.) (Laughter) (Applause)

台下觀眾：史蒂夫(Steve), 那就是我在聽完演說后要成為的。（笑聲&掌聲）

SP: You've got it! You've got the job.

你已經領悟了！你會的。

Number eight: the ecosystem collapses.

問題8：生態系統的崩潰。

Last July, in Science, the journal Science,

去年七月，『科學』，我指『科學』週刊中，

19 oceanographers published a very, very unusual article.

19位海洋學家發表了一篇非常，非常特殊的文章——

It wasn't really a research report; it was a screed.

它并不是一份研究報告，而是一篇長篇大論。

They said, we've been looking at the oceans for a long time now,

科學家在文中說道，我們研究海洋已經很長一段時間了，

and we want to tell you they're not in trouble, they're near collapse.

此時我們想告訴你們，海洋面臨的不是麻煩，而是瀕臨崩潰。

Many other ecosystems on Earth are in real, real danger.

地球上很多其它的生態系統正處於危險之中。

We're living in a time of mass extinctions that exceeds the fossil record

我們生活在一個物種大量滅絕的時代，其速度和遠古時期相比

by a factor of 10,000.

快了1萬倍。

We have lost 25 percent of the unique species in Hawaii in the last 20 years.

在過去的20年，夏威夷(Hawaii)有25%的珍稀物種滅絕，

California is expected to lose 25 percent of its species in the next 40 years.

預計加州也將在未來40年內損失25%的物種。

Somewhere in the Amazon forest is the marginal tree.

在亞馬遜(Amazon)森林某處有一種樹，只剩下最後一棵。

You cut down that tree, the rain forest collapses as an ecosystem.

你將它伐倒，熱帶雨林的生態系統就從此崩潰。

There's really a tree like that out there. That's really what it comes to.

在某個地方的確有這麼一棵樹。真的就這麼一棵。

And when that ecosystem collapses, it could take a major ecosystem with it,

而當那個生態系統崩潰后，它會拖累一個主要的生態系統，

like our atmosphere. So, what do we do about this? What are the solutions?

譬如說我們的大氣生態系統。那麼我們如何應對呢？

There is some modeling of ecosystems going on now.

現在已經有一些模擬生態系統，

The problem with ecosystems is that we understand them so poorly,

發生在生態系統上的問題可歸結為我們對其瞭解太少

that we don't know they're really in trouble until it's almost too late.

以至於我們不知道他們已經陷入困境，而知道的時候往往已經太晚了。

We need to know earlier that they're getting in trouble,

我們需要早一些知道它們出現了問題，

and we need to be able to pump possible solutions into models.

然後我們需要在生態模型上試驗解決之道。

And with the kind of computing power we have now,

而這可以藉助強大的電算能力

there is, as I say, some of this going on, but it needs money.

——如我所言，現在的確有這樣的技術，但它還是需要投資。

National Science Foundation needs to say -- you know,

我們需要國家科學基金會(NSF)來拍板——你們知道的，

almost all the money that's spent on science in this country

對科學事業的投資幾乎

comes from the federal government, one way or another.

全部都來自聯邦政府各種名目的管道。

And they get to prioritize, you know?

而資金投注是有其優先順序的，各位知道吧？

There are people at the National Science Foundation

我們需要有國家科學基金會(NSF)的人站出來說

who get to say, this is the most important thing.

這就是當前最重要的事。

This is one of the things they ought to be thinking more about.

說這就是他們應該重點考慮的事項之一。

Secondly, we need to create huge biodiversity reserves on the planet,

其次，我們需要在地球上建立大型自然保護區，以保護生物多樣性

and start moving them around.

并於此將影響逐步擴散。

There's been an experiment for the last four or five years on the Georges Bank,

在過去的4、5年，在喬治斯河岸(Georges Bank)——或者是

or the Grand Banks off of Newfoundland. It's a no-take fishing zone.

紐芬蘭(Newfoundland)的大淺灘(Grand Banks)劃分了『非捕魚區』。

They can't fish there for a radius of 200 miles.

區域周圍200英里半徑之內不許捕魚。

And an amazing thing has happened: almost all the fish have come back,

然後一件神奇的事情發生了——幾乎所有的魚兒都回來了

and they're reproducing like crazy. We're going to have to start doing this

並以驚人的速度繁殖。我們將在全球範圍內

around the globe. We're going to have to have no-take zones.

推廣這一做法。我們必須要設立『非捕魚區』。

We're going to have to say, no more logging in the Amazon for 20 years.

我們必須呼籲，在未來的20年，禁止在亞馬遜(Amazon)森林砍伐。

Let it recover, before we start logging again.

在伐木之前請先讓森林得以恢復。

(Applause)

（掌聲）

Number seven: particle accelerator mishap.

問題7：粒子加速器事故。

You all remember Ted Kaczynski, the Unabomber?

你們都記得泰德•卡欽斯基(Ted Kaczynski)，那個郵包炸彈恐怖分子吧？

One of the things he raved about was that a particle accelerator experiment

他狂熱的事情之一便是一個粒子加速的實驗

could go haywire and set off a chain reaction that would destroy the world.

在失去控制後能產生一系列反應，最終摧毀地球。

A lot of very sober-minded physicists, believe it or not,

有很多頭腦清醒的物理學家，不管你信不信，

have had exactly the same thought.

都有過類似的想法。

This spring -- there's a collider at Brookhaven, on Long Island --

這個春天，在布魯克海文(Brookhaven),在長島上(Long Island)有一台對撞機——

this spring, it's going to have an experiment in which it creates black holes.

這個春天它將被啟用來做一項模擬黑洞的實驗。

They are expecting to create little, tiny black holes.

科學家們希望憑此來製造一些小小的黑洞。

They expect them to evaporate. (Laughter)

他們還希望他們能自行消失。（笑）

I hope they're right. (Laughter)

我希望他們是正確的。（笑）

Other collider experiments -- there's one that's going to take place next summer

另一個對撞實驗——下個夏天在歐洲核子研究中心（CERN）

at CERN -- have the possibility of creating something called strangelets,

將有一實驗——有可能製造出一種叫做『奇異微子』的東西，

which are kind of like antimatter. Whenever they hit other matter, they destroy it

這東西有點像反物質，任何時候它們一旦與其他物質相撞便會與其同歸於盡，

and obliterate it. Most physicists say that the accelerators we have now

不留痕跡。大多數物理學家都說我們現在擁有的加速區

are not really powerful enough to create black holes and strangelets

還沒強大到能製造出令人恐慌的黑洞和『奇異微子』

that we need to worry about, and they're probably right.

或許他們是對的。

But, all around the world, in Japan, in Canada,

但——從世界範圍來看，在日本、加拿大——

there's talk about this, of reviving this in the United States.

都在談論相關的事情——都在談要在美國重振這一事業。

We shut one down that was going to be big.

我們扼殺了未來的大加速器。

But there's talk of building very big accelerators.

卻被煽動製造非常大的加速器

What can we do about this? What are the solutions?

對此我們能做些什麽呢？解決方法呢？

We've got the fox watching the henhouse here.

我們的雞舍周圍蹲滿了虎視眈眈的狐狸。

We need to -- we need the advice of particle physicists to talk about particle physics

我們需要——我們需要來自粒子物理學家的建議，需要他們對此進行討論

and what should be done in particle physics,

來確定到底在粒子物理學中什麽是我們應該做的。

but we need some outside thinking and watchdogging

但我們同樣需要一些圈外的想法，需要外界來督查

of what's going on with these experiments.

這些實驗將產生的影響。

Secondly, we have a natural laboratory surrounding the Earth.

其次，我們有一個自然的實驗室環繞在地球周圍。

We have an electromagnetic field around the Earth,

在地球周圍有一個天然電磁場

and it's constantly bombarded by high-energy particles, like protons.

它被高能量粒子——如質子——持續地轟炸。

And in my opinion, we don't spend enough time

而我們並沒有——在我看來——我們沒有花足夠多的時間

looking at that natural laboratory and figuring out first what's safe to do on Earth.

來研究那個天然實驗室並確定什麽實驗在地球上進行是安全的。

Number six: biotech disaster.

問題6：生物技術帶來的災難。

It's one of my favorite ones, because we've done several stories on Bt corn.

這是我最喜歡的話題之一，因為我們有很多關於轉基因玉米(BT corn)的故事.

Bt corn is a corn that creates its own pesticide to kill a corn borer.

BT 玉米可以自產殺蟲劑來消滅入侵的害蟲。

You may of heard of it -- heard it called StarLink,

你可能聽說過——星聯(Starlink)玉米,

especially when all those taco shells were taken out of the supermarkets

尤其是一年半前當所有這些玉米糠皮被

about a year and a half ago.

超市下架的時候。

This stuff was supposed to only be feed for animals in the United States,

這物質在美國規定只能用來飼養動物，

and it got into the human food supply, and somebody should've figured out

而現在它進入了人類的食物，而且有人應該很快就能發現

that it would get in the human food supply very easily.

這種玉米成份很容易成為人類的食物。

But the thing that's alarming is a couple of months ago, in Mexico,

但真正發出警告的是幾個月前，在墨西哥，

where Bt corn and all genetically altered corn is totally illegal,

在那裡BT玉米和所有轉基因玉米都被法律禁止生產，

they found Bt corn genes in wild corn plants.

而在那裡有人在野生玉米植株中發現了BT玉米的基因。

Now, corn originated, we think, in Mexico.

現在看來，玉米應該是起源于墨西哥。

This is the genetic biodiversity storehouse of corn.

墨西哥是玉米的基因庫。

This brings back a skepticism that has gone away recently,

而這又喚起了一個近來才淡去的懷疑論，

that superweeds and superpests could spread around the world,

即：生物科技將使超級雜草與超級害蟲

from biotechnology, that literally could destroy the world's food supply

遍及全世界，而那絕對會給全球食物供應帶來滅頂之災

in very short order.

以迅雷不及掩耳之勢。

So, what do we do about that?

那麼我們又能對此做些什麽呢？

We treat biotechnology with the same scrutiny we apply to nuclear power plants.

我們必須用對待核電站的審慎態度來對待生物科技。

It's that simple. This is an amazingly unregulated field.

道理就那麼簡單。現在生物科技領域無法無天。

When the StarLink disaster happened, there was a battle between the

星聯(Starlink)事件發生后，環境保護局(EPA)與食品及藥物管理局(FDA)

EPA and the FDA over who really had authority, and over what parts of this,

之間就誰有權利接管、應該接管哪個部份發生了爭執，

and they didn't get it straightened out for months. That's kind of crazy.

爭了幾個月也還是沒有結果——真是不可理喻。

Number five, one of my favorites: reversal of the Earth's magnetic field.

問題5，又是我最喜歡的話題之一：地球磁場顛倒。

Believe it or not, this happens every few hundred thousand years,

不論你是否相信，這確實每隔數十萬年就發生一次，

and has happened many times in our history.

在過去它已經發生了幾次——

North Pole goes to the South, South Pole goes to the North, and vice versa.

北極換到了南極，南極換到了北極，或者反之。

But what happens, as this occurs,

當這發生時，

is that we lose our magnetic field around the Earth over the period of about 100 years,

我們就會有大約100年的時間處於失去磁場的狀態，

and that means that all these cosmic rays and particles

而那就意味著所有太陽產生的宇宙射線和粒子流

that are to come streaming at us from the sun,

都朝我們奔湧而來，

that this field protects us from, are -- well, basically, we're gonna fry. (Laughter)

這就是失去地球磁場保護的下場——基本上，我們將被炸焦。（笑）

(Voice: Steve, I have some additional hats downstairs.)

台下觀眾：史蒂夫(Steve)我在樓下還有些帽子。

SP: So, what can we do about this? Oh, by the way, we're overdue.

那麼我們能對此做些什麽呢？噢，順便說一句，磁場倒置正在延遲——

It's been 780,000 years since this happened.

距上次發生發生至今已經有78萬年了

So, it should have happened about 480,000 years ago.

而——本來48萬年前就應該發生一次的。

Oh, and here's one other thing.

噢，還有另一件事

Scientists think now our magnetic field may be diminished by about five percent.

——科學家認為現在地球磁場可能已經削弱了5%。

So, maybe we're in the throes of it.

所以我們可能要『忍痛割愛』了。

One of the problems of trying to figure out how healthy the Earth is,

為地球測評健康水平所面臨的困難之一就是，

is that we have -- you know, we don't have good weather data from 60 years ago,

我們缺乏來自60年前的完好的天氣資料，

much less data on things like the ozone layer.

至於臭氧層的資料就更加少了。

So, there's a fairly simple solution to this.

那麼對此，有一個很簡單的解決辦法。

There's going to be a lot of cheap rocketry that's going to come online

在6、7年內，網上將有很多廉價的

in about six or seven years

火箭學資源，

that gets us into the low atmosphere very cheaply.

那可使我們進入低層大氣，而花費甚微。

You know, we can make ozone from car tailpipes.

你們可知道，汽車尾氣管可以製造臭氧。

It's not hard: it's just three oxygen atoms.

那并不難——也就是三個氧原子嘛。

If you brought the entire ozone layer down to the surface of the Earth,

如果你把整個臭氧層搬到地球表面上來，

it would be the thickness of two pennies, at 14 pounds per square inch.

那將會有2美分厚，每平方英寸有14磅重。

You don't need that much up there.

你可不需要有那麼多臭氧蕩在那兒。

We need to learn how to repair and replenish the Earth's ozone layer.

我們需要研究如何修復、填充地球的臭氧層。

(Applause)

（掌聲）

Number four: giant solar flares.

問題4：太陽大閃焰。

Solar flares are enormous magnetic outbursts from the Sun

太陽閃焰是太陽拋射出的強磁場

that bombard the Earth with high-speed subatomic particles.

該磁場以高速次原子粒子流的形式轟炸地球。

So far, our atmosphere has done, and our magnetic field has done

一直以來我們的大氣層——與地球磁場一并——

pretty well protecting us from this.

保護著我們免受其害。

Occasionally, we get a flare from the Sun that causes havoc

偶爾地，會有一股來自太陽的閃焰闖進地球

with communications and so forth, and electricity.

對我們的通訊、電力等產生強烈干擾。

But the alarming thing is that astronomers recently have been studying

但令人擔憂的是天文學家近來研究發現

stars that are similar to our Sun,

與太陽類似的恒星中

and they've found that a number of them, when they're about the age of our Sun,

有一些，當它們處於太陽現在的年紀時，

brighten by a factor of as much as 20. Doesn't last for very long.

比原來亮了20倍，且這個狀態持續不了多久。

And they think these are super-flares, millions of times more powerful

於是天文學家推測那是超級閃焰，它要比太陽之前所產生的

than any flares we've had from our Sun so far.

任何閃焰的威力都要強數百萬倍。

Obviously, we don't want one of those. (Laughter)

很顯然我們並不希望碰上。（笑）

There's a flip side to it. In studying stars

但另一方面——在研究與太陽相似的恒星

like our Sun, we've found that they go through periods of diminishment,

的過程中，我們發現它們經歷了一些衰退期，

when their total amount of energy that's expelled from them

這時它們釋放的能量比起之前而言

goes down by maybe one percent.

會下降1%。

One percent doesn't sound like a lot, but it would cause one hell of an ice age here.

1%的能量聽起來并不多，但它足以成就一個冰河時代。

So, what can we do about this?

那麼我們能做些什麽呢？

(Laughter) Start terraforming Mars. This is one of my favorite subjects.

（笑）將火星改造成地球。這是我最喜歡的課題之一，

I wrote a story about this in Life magazine in 1993.

1993年我在『生命(Life)』雜誌中發表了一個故事。

This is rocket science, but it's not hard rocket science.

這就是火箭科學，但並不難理解。

Everything that we need to make an atmosphere on Mars,

因為我們需要在火星上製造的大氣

and to make a livable planet on Mars, is probably there.

和其他使火星適宜生存的一切資源，都可能已經在火星上了。

And you just, literally, have to send little nuclear factories up there

而你需要做的，實際上只是發送一些核能工廠到火星上

that gobble up the iron oxide on the surface of Mars and spit out the oxygen.

將氧化鐵吞進爾後吐出氧氣。

The problem is it takes 300 years to terraform Mars, minimum.

困難就在於要改造火星至少也得需要300年。

Really more like 500 years to do it right.

或許要改造好可能需要更久，諸如500年。

There's no reason why we shouldn't start now. (Laughter)

因此我們沒有理由還不開始行動。（笑）

Number three -- isn't this stuff cool? (Laughter)

問題3——這難道不是很酷嗎？（笑）

A new global epidemic. People have been at war with germs

——一種新的全球流行病。打人類存在時起我們就

ever since there have been people,

一直在和病菌做鬥爭，

and from time to time, the germs sure get the upper hand.

而有時病毒還占了上風。

In 1918, we had a flu epidemic in the United States that killed 20 million people.

1918年美國的一場流感奪走了2000萬人的生命。

That was back when the population was around 100 million people.

而當時的總人口也不過1億而已。

The bubonic plague in Europe, in the Middle Ages,

中世紀一場黑死病(bubonic plague)

killed one out of four Europeans.

使1/4的歐洲人喪命。

AIDS is coming back. Ebola seems to be rearing its head

愛滋病毒捲土重來；依波拉(Ebola)病毒也開始翹首昂姿

with much too much frequency,

這些病發作的頻率非常高，

and old diseases like cholera are becoming resistant to antibiotics.

而諸如霍亂(cholera)這樣的『老相識』也開始變得抗藥了。

We've all learned what -- the kind of panic that can occur

我們都領教過老疾病再次發作的時候所引發的恐慌，

when an old disease rears its head, like anthrax.

譬如炭疽熱(anthrax)再次發作的時候。

The worst possibility is that a very simple germ, like staph,

最壞的情況就是連一些很簡單的病菌，譬如葡萄球菌(staph),

for which we have one antibiotic that still works, mutates.

——現在還剩有一種抗生素對其奏效——都發生了變異。

And we know staph can do amazing things.

而我們知道葡萄球菌(staph)會做出一些驚人之事。

A staph cell can be next to a muscle cell in your body and borrow genes from it

一個葡萄球菌細胞會寄居在一個肌細胞旁邊，爾後藉助肌細胞的基因，

when antibiotics come, and change and mutate.

在抗生素來時，葡萄球菌便會發生變異。

The danger is that some germ like staph will be --

這其中危險就在於一些諸如葡萄球菌的病菌會——

will mutate into something that's really virulent, very contagious,

會變異成一些非常致命的、傳染性極強的病菌，

and will sweep through populations before we can do anything about it.

爾後在我們措手不及的時候大肆掃蕩人群。

That's happened before. About 12,000 years ago,

之間也發生過此事。大約1萬兩千年前，

there was a massive wave of mammal extinctions in the Americas,

美國發生過一次大規模的哺乳動物滅絕，

and that is thought to have been a virulent disease.

而那被認為就是一場惡性疾病造成的。

So, what can we do about it?

那麼我們對此能做些什麽呢？

It is nuts. We give antibiotics -- (Applause) --

這真難辦。我們餵家禽抗生素——（掌聲）——

every cow, every lamb, every chicken, they get antibiotics every day, all.

每一隻牛、羊、雞，它們每天都要吃抗生素，

You know, you go to a restaurant, you eat fish, I got news for you,

所有的——你可知道，當去到餐廳吃魚的時候，我告訴你，

it's all farmed. You know, you gotta ask when you go to a restaurant if it's a wild fish,

它是飼養的。然後你得問餐廳那魚是否是野生的，

cause they're not going to tell you. We're giving away the code.

而他們當然不會告訴你。我們正在洩露天機——

This is like being at war and giving somebody your secret code.

就好像正在打仗，然後我們把密碼給洩露了一樣。

We're telling the germs out there how to fight us.

我們根本是在教病菌該如何對付我們。

We gotta fix that. We gotta outlaw that right away.

我們必須要將這種狀況改過來，必要要明文禁止那種行為才行。

Secondly, our public health system, as we saw with anthrax, is a real disaster.

其次，我們的公共衛生體系，在我看來與炭疽熱(anthrax)一樣，也是場災難。

We have a real, major outbreak of disease in the United States,

現在的美國就有一場非常大的疾病爆發，

we are not prepared to cope with it.

而我們還未準備對策。

Now, there is money in the federal budget, next year,

聯邦預算中有一筆錢是打算用來

to build up the public health service.

建設明年的公共健康服務的。

But I don't think to any extent that it really needs to be done.

但我實在看不出這樣做的必要性。

Number two -- my favorite -- we meet a rogue black hole.

問題2——我最喜歡的——我們遇上了一個淘氣的小黑洞。

You know, 10 years ago, or 15 years ago, really,

你可知道，10年前——或者15年前——

you walk into an astronomy convention, and you say,

當你在天文學大會上說

"You know, there's probably a black hole at the center of every galaxy,"

『你們知道嗎，在銀河系中央很可能有一個黑洞，』的時候

and they're going to hoot you off the stage.

你就會被炮轟下臺。

And now, if you went into one of those conventions and you said,

而現在如果你在大會上說，

"Well, I don't think black holes are out there," they'd hoot you off the stage.

『我認為黑洞並不存在』，他們才會將你轟下臺。

Our comprehension of the way the universe works is really --

我們對於宇宙運行方式的理解，真的——

has just gained unbelievably in recent years.

在近幾年有了不可思議的進展。

We think that there are about 10 million dead stars in the Milky Way alone, our galaxy.

我們認為，僅在銀河系中就有大約一千萬顆死亡的恒星。

And these stars have compressed down to maybe something like 12, 15 miles wide,

而這些恒星已經被壓縮成12或者15英里直徑的『大餅』，

and they are black holes. And they are gobbling up everything around them,

他們就是黑洞。而且他們正在吞噬周遭的一切，

including light, which is why we can't see them.

包括光，因此我們也不能觀測到它們（黑洞）。

Most of them should be in orbit around something.

大多數黑洞都應該在一些軌道上圍繞它物運行。

But galaxies are very violent places, and things can be spun out of orbit.

但星系是很不穩定的，其中天體會脫離其軌道。

And also, space is incredibly vast.

但同時，太空極其廣大。

So even if you flung a million of these things out of orbit,

因此就算有一百萬個類似物種被甩出軌道，

the chances that one would actually hit us is fairly remote.

砸中地球的概率也是微乎其微的。

But it only has to get close, about a billion miles away, one of these things.

但是——一旦類此物質靠近地球，哪怕在十億英里開外。

About a billion miles away, here's what happens to Earth's orbit:

在離地球十億英里遠時，地球運行軌跡將變化為——

it becomes elliptical instead of circular.

它將從圓形變為橢圓。

And for three months out of the year,

然後每年中有三個月，

the surface temperatures go up to 150 to 180.

地表溫度將上升至華氏150至180（約合65至82攝氏度——譯者注）

For three months out of the year, they go to 50 below zero.

而有三個月地表溫度又會降至-50度(約合-45攝氏度——譯者注)

That won't work too well. What can we do about this?

那樣可不大好。我們對此又能做些什麽呢？

And this is my scariest. (Laughter)

而這正是我最怕的——（笑）

I don't have a good answer for this one.

對此我沒有想到一個好的解決方案。

Again, we gotta think about being a colonizing race.

同樣的，我們得好好考慮一下殖民外太空。

And finally, number one: biggest danger to life as we know it, I think,

最後，問題1——在我看來它是我們所知的對生命最大的威脅，

a really big asteroid heads for Earth.

那就是：一個非常大的小行星直奔地球而來。

The important thing to remember here -- this is not a question of if,

在這裡需要記住的是——這不是會不會發生的問題，

this is a question of when, and how big.

而是什麽時候發生，行星會有多大的問題。

In 1908, just a 200-foot piece of a comet

1908年，一片——僅僅是一片200英尺的彗星碎片——

exploded over Siberia and flattened forests for maybe 100 miles.

在西伯利亞(Siberia)上空爆炸，夷平的森林直徑達100英里。

It had the effect of about 1,000 Hiroshima bombs.

它的威力與1000顆炸廣島(Hiroshima)的原子彈等同。

Astronomers estimate that little asteroids like that come about every hundred years.

天文學家預測小行星每隔幾百年就造訪地球一次，

In 1989, a large asteroid passed 400,000 miles away from Earth.

1989年一顆大行星與我們相隔40萬英里擦肩而過。

Nothing to worry about, right?

沒什麽好擔心的對吧？

It passed directly through Earth's orbit. We were in that that spot six hours earlier.

那顆行星徑直掠過地球軌道，恰是6小時前地球所處的位置。

A small asteroid, say a half mile wide, would touch off firestorms

一顆小行星，譬如一顆直徑半英里的小行星，都會引發火災風暴

followed by severe global cooling from the debris kicked up --

隨後便是殘骸引發的全球性氣溫惡降——

Carl Sagan's nuclear winter thing.

正是卡爾•薩根（Carl Sagan）道出的『核冬天』——（核冬天：核武器爆炸引起的全球性氣溫下降——譯者注）

An asteroid five miles wide causes major extinctions.

一顆直徑5英里的小行星會帶來滅頂之災——

We think the one that got the dinosaurs was about five miles wide.

我們認為那顆讓恐龍滅絕的行星正是5英尺大。

Where are they? There's something called the Kuiper belt,

這些小行星從哪裡來?有一個地方叫做凱伯帶(Kuiper belt)（Kuiper belt：數十億顆在海王星軌道之外繞行的小型冰體構成的碟形帶——譯者注）

which -- some people think Pluto's not a planet,

這也是——有人認為冥王星不是一顆行星，

that's where Pluto is, it's in the Kuiper belt.

冥王星所處的區域，正是凱伯帶(Kuiper belt)。

There's also something a little farther out, called the Oort cloud.

在遠一些的地方還有一個叫做奧特星雲(Oort cloud)的東西。

There are about 100,000 balls of ice and rock -- comets, really --

星雲中有大約10萬顆冰球和石球——也就是彗星——

out there, that are 50 miles in diameter or more,

它們直徑有50英里長，甚至更長，

and they regularly take a little spin,

而它們定期會朝太陽奔去

in towards the Sun and pass reasonably close to us.

爾後適度地偏向地球，從其旁邊掠過。

Of more concern, I think, is the asteroids that exist between Mars and Jupiter.

更值得關注的，我認為，是存於火星與木星之間的小行星。

The folks at the Sloan Digital Sky Survey told us last fall --

去年秋季SDSS的工作人員告訴我們——（SDSS:位於新墨西哥州阿帕奇山顶天文台一個以2.5米口径望遠鏡『掃描』外太空的項目——譯者注）

they're making the first map of the universe, three-dimensional map of the universe --

他們正在製作第一張宇宙地圖——宇宙三維地圖

that there are probably 700,000 asteroids between Mars and Jupiter

他們告訴我們在火星與木星之間有70萬顆小行星

that are a half a mile big or bigger.

其直徑達半英里或者更長。

So you say, yeah, well, what are really the chances of this happening?

然後你們會說，好吧，那麼究竟小行星撞擊地球的概率是多少呢？

Andrew, can you put that chart up?

安德魯(Andrew)，能放一下那張圖表嗎？

This is a chart that Dr. Clark Chapman at the Southwest Research Institute

這張圖表是西南研究學院(Southwestern Research Institute)的克拉克 •查普曼(Clark Chapman)博士

presented to Congress a few years ago.

幾年前給國會展示的一張圖。

You'll notice that the chance of an asteroid-slash-comet impact killing you

你會注意到被小行星長尾彗星砸中身亡的

is about one in 20,000, according to the work they've done.

概率是1/20000，這是他們研究出來的。

Now look at the one right below that.

那麼再看看正下方的這個。

Passenger aircraft crash, one in 20,000.

客機發生空難的概率，也是1/20000.

We spend an awful lot of money trying to be sure that we don't die in airplane accidents,

我們投入那麼多資金來避免飛機事故造成的人員傷亡，

and we're not spending hardly anything on this. And yet, this is completely preventable.

卻未曾真正在小行星撞擊地球這個課題上投入很多。而這是完全可以避免的。

We finally have, just in the last year, the technology to stop this cold.

最終，去年我們才有了結束這個冷門的技術。

Could we have the solutions?

我們的解決辦法呢？

NASA's spending three million dollars a year, three million bucks --

NASA每年花三百萬美元在這個研究課題上——三百萬美元——

that is like pocket change -- to search for asteroids.

那只是一些小錢——對於搜尋小行星來說。

Because we can actually figure out every asteroid that's out there,

因為其實我們可以給每一顆太空中的小行星定位，

and if it might hit Earth, and when it might hit Earth.

我們可以算出它是否有可能撞擊地球，以及撞擊的時間。

And they're trying to do that.

現在NASA已經開始試圖研究這個了。

But it's going to take them 10 years, at spending three million dollars a year,

但如果每年只花3百萬美元的話，這工作得做十年，

and even then, they claim they'll only have about 80 percent of them catalogued.

甚至10年后他們都只能公佈80%的編制行星名錄。

Comets are a tougher act.

彗星可是堅定不移。

We don't really have the technology to predict comet trajectories,

我們還不具備能預測彗星軌道的技術，

or when one with our name on it might arrive.

也不能算出我們命名的彗星造訪地球的具體時間。

But we would have lots of time, if we see it coming.

但如果我們知道它正朝我們奔來，我們就有機會脫險。

We really need a dedicated observatory.

我們需要一個專門用來觀測彗星的天文臺。

You'll notice that a lot of comets are named after people you never heard of,

你會注意很多彗星都是無名人氏給其命名的——

amateur astronomers? That's because nobody's looking for them, except amateurs.

都是業餘天文學愛好者干的？那是因為除了他們沒人在做這事兒了。

We need a dedicated observatory that looks for comets.

我們需要一個專門的天文臺來觀測彗星。

Part two of the solutions: we need to figure out how to blow up an asteroid,

解決方案的第二部份——我們需研究出如何炸掉小行星，

or alter its trajectory. Now, a year ago, we did an amazing thing.

或者是改變它的軌道。一年前，我們有一驚人之舉。

We sent a probe out to this asteroid belt,

我們向小行星帶發送了一個探測器，

called NEAR, Near Earth Asteroid Rendezvous.

它名字叫做NEAR，展開后便是『近地小行星集結號(Near Earth Asteroid Rendezvous)』。

And these guys orbited a 30 -- or no, about a 22-mile long asteroid called Eros.

這些探測器繞著一顆直徑長達30——哦不，應該是22英里的小行星厄裡斯(Eris)旋轉。

And then, of course, you know, they pulled one of those sneaky NASA things,

然後當然啦，你們知道的，它們履行了一個NASA暗中賦予的任務

where they had extra batteries and extra gas aboard and everything,

——在它們還有多餘電量、多餘燃料和一切條件具備的前提下——

and then, at the last minute, they landed.

然後在最後罐頭它們著陸了——

When the mission was over, they actually landed on the thing.

當任務結束時它們扎扎實實地落在一顆小行星上。

We have landed a rocket ship on an asteroid. It's not a big deal.

我們已經把一艘火箭著陸在一顆小行星上了。這沒什麽大不了的。

Now, the trouble with just sending a bomb out for this thing

那麼向小行星發射炮彈的困難呢，

is that you don't have anything to push against in space, because there's no air.

就在於太空中沒有推進器，因為太空中沒有空氣。

A nuclear explosion is just as hot,

行使核爆炸也是熱門話題，

but we don't really have anything big enough to melt a 22-mile long asteroid,

但我們的能量還不足以融化一顆22英里直徑的小行星。

or vaporize it, would be more like it.

使其氣化也不現實，我比較傾向于這樣說。

But we can learn to land on these asteroids that have our name on them

但我們可以試著讓攜有名字標記的裝置著陸在這些小行星上，

and put something like a small ion propulsion motor on it,

然後再給其綁定一些諸如小的離子推進馬達之類的東西，

which would gently, slowly, after a period of time, push it into a different trajectory,

這樣通過一段時間，這些推進馬達便可以輕微地、慢慢地將小行星推進另一個軌道，

which, if we've done our math right, would keep it from hitting Earth.

而只要我們計算正確，就可以阻止小行星撞擊地球。

This is just a matter of finding 'em, going there, and doing something about it.

這問題歸結起來就是去發現小行星，爾後到達它所在的地方并對其採取一定措施。

I know your head is spinning from all this stuff.

我知道大家的腦袋都被這些東西給搞昏了。

Yikes! So many big threats!

唉呀！這麼多的威脅呀！

The thing, I think, to remember, is September 11.

我覺得需要記住的是911事件。

We don't want to get caught flat-footed again.

我們可不想再坐以待斃。

We know about this stuff.

我們很清楚這一點。

Science has the power to predict the future in many cases now.

現在的科學已經具備在一些領域預測未來的能力。

Knowledge is power.

知識就是力量。

The worst thing we can do is say, jeez, I got enough to worry about

最糟糕莫過於我們高呼哎呀，我擔心的都夠多啦

without worrying about an asteroid. (Laughter)

但還未想過小行星問題。

That's a mistake that could literally cost us our future.

這個盲點真的會斷送我們的未來啊。

Thank you.

謝謝。