Can seaweed help curb global warming? | Tim Flannery

翻译人员: Nan Yang 校对人员: Lipeng Chen

Oh, there's a lot of it.

哦，这里有很多这个东西。

This is seaweed.

是海藻。

It's pretty humble stuff.

这是很不起眼的东西。

But it does have some remarkable qualities.

但是它确实有一些了不起的特质。

For one, it grows really fast.

其中一个就是， 它们生长得非常快。

So the carbon that is part of that seaweed,

仅在几周前，

just a few weeks ago,

海藻中的一部分，碳，

was floating in the atmosphere as atmospheric CO2,

以大气层中二氧化碳的形态 正漂浮在大气中，

driving all the adverse consequences of climate change.

造成了气候变化中的 那些不良后果。

For the moment, it's locked safely away in the seaweed,

而此时此刻， 碳被安全的锁在海藻中，

but when that seaweed rots --

但是当海藻腐烂时——

and by the smell of it, it's not far away --

而且闻起来， 它离腐烂不远了——

when it rots, that CO2 will be released back to the atmosphere.

当它腐烂时，二氧化碳 会被释放回大气层。

Wouldn't it be fantastic if we could find a way

如果我们能够找到一种方法 可以长期把二氧化碳锁住，

of keeping that CO2 locked up long-term,

从而为解决气候问题 做出重大贡献，

and thereby significantly contributing to solving the climate problem?

这样岂不是棒极了？

What I'm talking about here is drawdown.

我现在所说的是吸收。

It's now become the other half of the climate challenge.

现在它变成了气候挑战的另一部分。

And that's because we have delayed so long,

是因为我们已经在 解决气候变化的问题上

in terms of addressing climate change,

拖延了太久了。

that we now have to do two very big and very difficult things at once.

所以我们现在不得不同时面对 两件非常重大而艰难的问题。

We have to cut our emissions and clean our energy supply

我们要减少排放， 清洁我们的能源供应，

at the same time that we draw significant volumes

同时要大量吸收

of carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere.

大气层中的二氧化碳。

If we don't do that, about 25 percent of the CO2 we put in the air

如果我们不这样做， 我们排入到空气中的二氧化碳

will remain there, by human standards, forever.

按照人类的标准， 有大约 25% 会永远留在那。

So we have to act.

所以我们必须行动起来。

This is really a new phase in addressing the climate crisis

这真的是解决气候危机的 一个新的阶段，

and it demands new thinking.

我们需要有新的思路。

So, ideas like carbon offsets really don't make sense

所以，像碳抵消 这种想法，在当今时代

in the modern era.

并没有什么意义。

You know, when you offset something,

当你们选择抵消，

you say, "I'll permit myself to put some greenhouse gas into the atmosphere,

你会说，“我会允许自己 向大气层中排放温室气体，

but then I'll offset it by drawing it down."

而之后我会通过吸收它来抵消掉。”

When you've got to both cut your emissions

当你可以既减少排放量

and draw down CO2,

又吸收二氧化碳，

that thinking doesn't make sense anymore.

之前那种想法不再有意义。

And when we're talking about drawdown,

而当我们讨论吸收，

we're talking about putting large volumes of greenhouses gases, particularly CO2,

我们说的是要将大量 的温室气体，尤其是二氧化碳

out of circulation.

移出大气循环。

And to do that, we need a carbon price.

而要做这个，我们需要为碳定价。

We need a significant price that we'll pay for that service

我们需要很高的价格 来支付为我们提供福利的

that we'll all benefit from.

这项服务。

We've made almost no progress so far

至今我们对于气候问题的第二部分

with the second half of the climate challenge.

基本上没有一点进展。

It's not on most people's radar.

这不在大多数人的关注范围内。

And, you know, I must say, at times, I hear people saying,

而且我必须说， 有时候，我听见人们说，

"I've lost hope that we can do anything about the climate crisis."

“我对我们能为气候危机所做的 已经失去希望了。”

And look, I've had my sleepless nights too, I can tell you.

而且我可以告诉你们， 我已经失眠了好几夜了。

But I'm here today as an ambassador for this humble weed, seaweed.

但是今天我的身份是 这个不起眼的海藻的大使。

I think it has the potential

我觉得它有潜力

to be a big part of addressing the challenge of climate change

成为解决气候变化问题的 一个重大部分，

and a big part of our future.

也会是我们未来的一个重要部分。

Now, what the scientists are telling us we need to do over the next 80-odd years

科学家们告诉我们， 我们需要在接下来的 80 年，

to the end of this century,

直到本世纪结束，

is to cut our greenhouse gas emissions

每年减少

by three percent every year,

3% 温室气体的排放，

and draw three gigatons of CO2 out of the atmosphere every year.

而且每年吸收大气层中 三十亿吨的二氧化碳。

Those numbers are so large that they baffle us.

这些数字太大了，让我们无所适从。

But that's what the scientists tell us we need to do.

但是这是科学家告诉我们要去做的。

I really hate showing this graph,

我非常讨厌展示这个图片，

but I'm sorry, I have to do it.

但是对不起，我不得不给大家看。

It is very eloquent in terms of telling the story

它对于讲述关于 我在气候变化问题的

of my personal failure

支持工作中

in terms of all the advocacy I've done in climate change work

的失败故事是非常有说服力的，

and in fact, our collective failure to address climate change.

实际上，是我们集体的失败。

You can see our trajectory there

你们可以在这看见

in terms of warming and greenhouse gas concentrations.

我们对于气候变暖和 温室气体浓度问题的行动轨迹。

You can see all of the great scientific announcements that we've made,

可以看见我们做的 所有的科学公告，

saying how much danger we face with climate change.

解释我们面临的气候变化 有多么危险。

You can see the political meetings.

可以看见我们的政治会议。

None of it has changed the trajectory.

没有任何东西改变我们的轨迹。

And this is why we need new thinking,

这就是为什么我们需要新的思路，

we need a new approach.

我们需要一个新的途径。

So how might we go about drawing down greenhouse gases at a large scale?

那么我们如何大幅度 吸收掉温室气体呢？

There's really only two ways of doing it,

这其实只有两条道路，

and I've done a very deep dive into drawdown.

而且我已经深入研究过 吸收这个方法了。

And I'll preempt my --

我会先发制人——

And I would say this stuff comes up smelling like roses at the end of the day.

我要说这个东西最终 会闻起来像玫瑰。

It does, it's one of the best options,

它确实是最好的一个选项。

but there are many, many possibilities.

但是也有其他很多，很多可能性。

There are chemical pathways and biological pathways.

两种方法分别是 化学途径和生物途径。

So two ways, really, of getting the job done.

两者都可以达到目的。

The biological pathways are fantastic

生物途径是很棒的，

because the energy source that's needed to drive them, the sun,

因为需要驱动它们的 能量来源，太阳，

is effectively free.

实际上是免费的。

We use the sun to drive photosynthesis in plants,

我们用太阳来带动 植物的光合作用，

break apart that CO2 and capture the carbon.

分解二氧化碳， 捕捉碳元素。

There are also chemical pathways.

然后还有化学途径。

They sound ominous, but actually, they're not bad at all.

听起来不太妙，但是实际上， 它们一点也不糟糕。

The difficulty they face is that we have to actually pay

大家面对的难处是 我们不得不为

for the energy that's required to do the job

工作所需的能源花钱

or pay to facilitate that energy.

或者为让那些能源 更方便易得花钱。

Direct air capture is a great example of a chemical pathway,

直接的空气捕捉是 化学途径的一个好例子。

and people are using that right now to take CO2 out of the atmosphere

人们正在用这种方式 将二氧化碳从大气中，

and manufacture biofuels or manufacture plastics.

制造生物燃料或制造塑料 的过程中搜集起来。

Great progress is being made,

人们已经有了很大的进展，

but it will be many decades

但是要实现通过化学途径

before those chemical pathways are drawing down a gigaton of CO2 a year.

一年降低 10 亿吨二氧化碳， 还要等上好几十年。

The biological pathways offer us a lot more hope, I think,

我认为，生物途径在短期内

in the short term.

会给我们更多希望。

You've probably heard about reforestation, planting trees,

你们可能听过把造林，植树

as a solution to the climate problem.

作为气候问题的解决方法。

You know, it's a fair question:

这是一个合理的疑问：

Can we plant our way out of this problem by using trees?

我们能只通过种树来解决问题吗?

I'm skeptical about that for a number of reasons.

由于多种原因， 我对此表示怀疑。

One is just the scale of the problem.

其中之一就是这个问题的规模。

All trees start as seeds, little tiny things,

所有树都是从非常小的种子开始，

and it's many decades before they've reached

在它们获得充分捕捉碳的能力前

their full carbon-capture potential.

需要好几十年。

And secondly,

第二点，

if you look at the land surface, you see that it's so heavily utilized.

如果看看地表， 会发现它的使用率已经很高了。

We get our food from it, we get our forestry products from it,

我们从中获取食物， 从中获取林业产品，

biodiversity protection and water and everything else.

生物多样性保护， 水，以及其它所有东西。

To expect that we'll find enough space to deal with this problem,

期盼我们可以找到 足够的空间来解决这个问题，

I think is going to be quite problematic.

我觉得这首先就是个问题。

But if we look offshore,

但是如果我们看海上，

wee see a solution where there's already an existing industry,

我们发现了一个解决方案， 而且已经形成了一个产业，

and where there's a clearer way forward.

这似乎是一个更明确的前进方向。

The oceans cover about 70 percent of our planet.

海洋覆盖了地球面积的 70%，

They play a really big role in regulating our climate,

在调节我们的气候上 扮演着非常重要的角色。

and if we can enhance the growth of seaweed in them,

如果我们能够增强 海洋中海藻的生长，

we can use them, I think, to develop a climate-altering crop.

我认为我们就可以用它们 来开发一种改变气候的农作物。

There are so many different kinds of seaweed,

海洋中有很多不同种类的海藻，

there's unbelievable genetic diversity in seaweed,

存在着不可思议的遗传多样性，

and they're very ancient;

而且它们非常古老；

they were some of the first multicellular organisms ever to evolve.

它们属于最先进化 的一部分多细胞生物。

People are using special kinds of seaweed now

人们正为了一些特定的原因

for particular purposes,

使用特别种类的海藻，

like developing very high-quality pharmaceutical products.

像开发非常高质量的药物。

But you can also use seaweed to take a seaweed bath,

你也可以泡一个海藻浴，

it's supposed to be good for your skin;

它应该会对你的皮肤有好处；

I can't testify to that, but you can do it.

我无法证明这一点， 但是你们可以去证明。

The scalability is the big thing about seaweed farming.

可扩展性是海藻养殖中的一件大事。

You know, if we could cover nine percent of the world's ocean

如果我们的海藻养殖能覆盖全球海洋中

in seaweed farms,

9% 的海藻，

we could draw down the equivalent of all of the greenhouse gases

我们就可以把 一年排放的温室气体量

we put up in any one year,

都搜集起来，

more than 50 gigatons.

多于 500 亿吨。

Now, I thought that was fantastic when I first read it,

当我第一次读到它时， 我觉得这棒极了，

but I thought I'd better calculate how big nine percent of the world's oceans is.

但是我认为最好计算一下 全世界海洋的 9% 有多大。

事实证明，有四个半澳洲大，

It turns out, it's about four and a half Australias,

也就是我住的地方。

the place I live in.

而我们现在距离目标有多远呢？

And how close are we to that at the moment?

How many ocean-going seaweed farms do we actually have out there?

我们现在有多少海藻养殖场呢？

Zero.

零。

But we do have some prototypes, and therein lies some hope.

但是我们有一些试验模型， 还保有一点希望。

This little drawing here of a seaweed farm that's currently under construction

这是正在建设中的 海藻养殖场的微型示意图，

tells you some very interesting things about seaweed.

它能告诉你们关于海藻的 一些有趣的事情。

You can see the seaweed growing on that rack,

你们可以看见海藻在架子上生长，

25 meters down in the ocean there.

在海面以下 25 米的地方。

It's really different from anything you see on land.

它们和我们在陆地上 看见的任何东西都不同。

And the reason being that, you know, seaweed is not like trees,

而原因就是，海藻不像树木，

it doesn't have nonproductive parts

它没有非生产性的部分，

like roots and trunks and branches and bark.

像根，树干，树枝和树皮。

The whole of the plant is pretty much photosynthetic,

整个植物都在做光合作用，

so it grows fast.

所以它长得很快。

Seaweed can grow a meter a day.

海藻可以每天长一米。

And how do we sequester the carbon?

我们如何封存碳呢？

Again, it's very different from on land.

同样，与陆地上非常不同，

All you need to do is cut that seaweed off --

我们需要做的仅仅就是砍掉海藻，

drifts into the ocean abyss,

让它飘入海洋深处，

Once it's down a kilometer,

一旦达到海面下一千米，

the carbon in that seaweed is effectively out of the atmospheric system

海藻中的碳 在几个世纪或者几千年内

for centuries or millennia.

都会远离大气系统。

Whereas if you plant a forest,

不论你在哪种植森林，

you've got to worry about forest fires, bugs, etc.,

你都需要去担心森林大火，虫害，

releasing that carbon.

碳排放等等问题。

The key to this farm, though,

然而，养殖的关键是

is that little pipe going down into the depths.

深入到海底深处的小管子。

You know, the mid-ocean is basically a vast biological desert.

海洋中层基本上是 广阔的生物沙漠。

There's no nutrients there that were used up long ago.

那里的营养早就已经被用光。

But just 500 meters down,

但是往下仅仅 500 米，

there is cool, very nutrient-rich water.

就有凉爽，营养丰富的水。

And with just a little bit of clean, renewable energy,

而且利用一点点清洁可再生能源，

you can pump that water up

可以把那部分水抽上来，

and use the nutrients in it to irrigate your seaweed crop.

利用里面的营养灌溉海藻。

So I think this really has so many benefits.

我认为这个方法有很多益处。

It's changing a biological desert,

它将生物沙漠，

也就是海底中部，

the mid-ocean,

into a productive, maybe even planet-saving solution.

改变成一个有生机的， 甚至是可以拯救地球的方案。

So what could go wrong?

那么有没有出错的情况呢？

Well, anything we're talking about at this scale

我们现在谈论的规模

involves a planetary-scale intervention.

覆盖了整个地球。

And we have to be very careful.

我们不得不非常小心。

I think that piles of stinking seaweed

我认为那堆发臭的海藻

are probably going to be the least of our problems.

可能会是我们最小的问题，

There's other unforeseen things that will happen.

还有其它无法预见的事情发生。

One of the things that really worries me, when I talk about this,

其中一个当我说到它 就非常担心的是，

is the fate of biodiversity in the deep ocean.

深海生物多样性的命运。

If we are putting gigatons of seaweed into the deep ocean,

如果我们放了几十亿吨 的海藻到深海中，

we're affecting life down there.

我们会影响那里的生命。

The good news is that we know

好消息是，我们知道

that a lot of seaweed already reaches the deep ocean,

已经有很多海藻 在海上风暴后或者通过海底峡谷

after storms or through submarine canyons.

到达了海洋深处。

So we're not talking about a novel process here;

所以我们在讨论的 不是一个全新的过程；

we are talking about enhancing a natural process.

我们说的是改善一个自然进程。

And we'll learn as we go.

随着我们的前行， 我们会了解更多。

I mean, it may be that these ocean-going seaweed farms will need to be mobile,

我的意思是，这些远洋海藻养殖 需要是可移动的，

to distribute the seaweed across vast areas of the ocean,

可以跨越大片海洋区域 来分布这些海藻，

rather than creating a big stinking pile in one place.

而不是在一个地方 制造大片的臭味。

It may be that we'll need to char the seaweed --

可能我们需要的是碳化海藻，

so create a sort of an inert, mineral biochar

在我们把它们发放到深海前

before we dispatch it into the deep.

产生一种惰性的矿物炭。

We won't know until we start the process,

只有当我们开始这个过程时， 我们才会知道，

and we will learn effectively by doing.

而且只有通过实践才会有效学习。

I just want to take you to contemporary seaweed farming.

我想简单介绍一下 现代海藻养殖。

It's a big business --

这是一个很大的行业——

it's a six-billion-dollar-a-year business.

一个每年产值六十亿的生意。

These seaweed farms off South Korea --

在南韩的海藻养殖——

you can see them from space, they are huge.

你们可以从太空看到，它们面积很大。

And they're increasingly not just seaweed farms.

而且它们越来越多， 不只是海藻养殖。

What people are doing in places like this is something called ocean permaculture.

在这种地方人们从事 的是做海洋朴门。

And in ocean permaculture,

在海洋朴门中，

you grow fish, shellfish and seaweed all together.

人们将鱼，贝类和海藻一起培育。

And the reason it works so well

这个领域发展得很好的原因是

is that the seaweed makes the seawater less acid.

海藻使得海水的酸性降低。

It provides an ideal environment for growing marine protein.

这为海洋蛋白质的生长 提供了理想的环境。

If we covered nine percent of the world's oceans

如果我们在全世界 9% 的海洋中

in ocean permaculture,

都从事海洋朴门，

we would be producing enough protein in the form of fish and shellfish

我们将以鱼和贝类的形式 生产出足够的蛋白质

to give every person in a population of 10 billion

来给 100 亿人口每人每年

200 kilograms of high-quality protein per year.

提供 200 公斤高质量的蛋白质。

So, we've got a multipotent solution here.

所以，我们现在有了一个 全能的解决方案。

We can address climate change, we can feed the world,

我们可以解决气候变化， 可以为世界供给食物，

we can deacidify the oceans.

可以给海洋降低酸性。

The economics of all of this is going to be challenging.

所有这些在经济上都非常有挑战。

We'll be investing many, many billions of dollars

我们要投入好几十亿美元

into these solutions,

到这些方案中来，

and they will take decades to get to the gigaton scale.

然后要花几十年时间 达到几十亿吨的规模。

The reason that I'm convinced that this is going to happen

让我相信这个计划会实现的原因是，

is that unless we get the gas out of the air,

除非我们能够 将温室气体排出大气，

it is going to keep driving adverse consequences.

不然会继续带来不良的后果。

It will flood our cities,

海水会淹没我们的城市，

it will deprive us of food,

剥夺我们的食物，

it will cause all sorts of civil unrest.

会引起各种内乱。

So anyone who's got a solution to dealing with this problem

所以任何有解决方案的人

has a valuable asset.

都拥有了宝贵的资产，

And already, as I've explained,

而且，就像我解释过的，

ocean permaculture is well on the road to being economically sustainable.

海洋朴门已经在发展， 正在变成经济上可持续的产业。

You know, in the next 30 years,

在接下来 30 年，

we have to go from being a carbon-emitting economy

我们要从一个碳排放经济体

to a carbon-absorbing economy.

走向碳吸收经济体。

And that doesn't seem like very long.

看起来这并不遥远了。

But half of the greenhouse gases that we've put into the atmosphere,

但是我们释放入大气中的 一半温室气体，

we've put there in the last 30 years.

是我们在过去 30 年排放的。

My argument is,

我认为，

if we can put the gas in in 30 years,

如果我们可以在 30 年内 排放这些气体，

we can pull it out in 30 years.

我们也可以在 30 年内 将它们吸收。

And if you doubt how much can be done over 30 years,

如果你们怀疑我们在 30 年 的时间能有多少进展，

just cast your mind back a century, to 1919,

只要回溯到一个世纪前的 1919 年，

compare it with 1950.

与 1950 年比较一下。

Now, in 1919, here in Edinburgh,

在 1919 年的爱丁堡，

you might have seen a canvas and wood biplane.

你们可能见过 帆布和木头做的飞机。

Thirty years later, you'd be seeing jet aircraft.

30 年后，你们看见的是 喷气式飞机。

Transport in the street were horses in 1919.

1919 年街上的交通工具是马车。

By 1950, they're motor vehicles.

1950 年，变成了摩托车。

1919, we had gun powder;

1919 年，我们有枪作为武器；

1950, we had nuclear power.

1950 年，我们有了核能。

We can do a lot in a short period of time.

我们在一段很短时间的时间内 就能做很多事情。

But it all depends upon us believing that we can find a solution.

而这些全依靠于我们相信 我们能够找到一个解决办法。

Now what I would love to do is bring together all of the people

现在我想要做的是，聚集所有的人

with knowledge in this space.

和在这个领域的知识。

The engineers who know how to build structures offshore,

知道如何建造海上结构的工程师，

the seaweed farmers, the financiers,

海藻养殖员，金融家，

the government regulators,

政府监管者，

the people who understand how things are done.

所有知道怎样做成事情的人们。

And chart a way forward,

然后绘制出前进的道路，

say: How do we go from the existing six-billion-dollar-a-year,

问： 我们如何从现存的 产值 60 亿美元每年的

inshore seaweed industry,

沿海海藻产业，

to this new form of industry, which has got so much potential,

走向潜力巨大 但是需要大量投入的

but will require large amounts of investment?

新型产业？

I'm not a betting man, you know.

我不是一个爱赌的人。

But if I were,

如果我是，

I'll tell you, my money would be on that stuff,

我会告诉你们， 我的钱都会下注在这里，

it would be on seaweed.

下注在海藻上。

It's my hero.

它是我的英雄。

Thank you.

谢谢大家。

(Applause)

（掌声）