请双击下面的英文字幕来播放视频。
翻译人员: Li Li
校对人员: Yuanqing Edberg
00:12
So in 1885, Karl Benz
invented the automobile.
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在1885年,卡尔本茨发明了汽车。
00:16
Later that year, he took it out
for the first public test drive,
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那年年末,他把车开出去
进行第一次户外测试,
00:20
and -- true story --
crashed into a wall.
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然后——真实是——他撞墙了。
00:24
For the last 130 years,
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在过去的130年里,
00:26
we've been working around that least
reliable part of the car, the driver.
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我们一直在为汽车的最薄弱环节,
驾驶员,做着努力。
00:30
We've made the car stronger.
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我们把车做得更坚固,
00:32
We've added seat belts,
we've added air bags,
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我们增加了安全带,增加了安全气囊。
00:34
and in the last decade, we've actually
started trying to make the car smarter
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在过去十年里,
我们开始让车变得更智能,
00:38
to fix that bug, the driver.
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是为弥补驾驶员方面的缺陷。
00:41
Now, today I'm going to talk to you
a little bit about the difference
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那么,今天我将给大家讲讲,
00:44
between patching around the problem
with driver assistance systems
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用驾驶员辅助系统解决问题,
00:48
and actually having fully
self-driving cars
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和真正使用全面自动驾驶汽车的区别,
00:51
and what they can do for the world.
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以及它们对世界的贡献。
00:53
I'm also going to talk to you
a little bit about our car
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我也会介绍一下我们的车,
00:56
and allow you to see how it sees the world
and how it reacts and what it does,
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让你们了解它是如何观察这个世界的,
以及如何应对各种情况,
01:00
but first I'm going to talk
a little bit about the problem.
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但首先我先说说存在的问题。
01:03
And it's a big problem:
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这是个很严重的问题,
每年全世界都有120万人
因交通事故丧命。
01:05
1.2 million people are killed
on the world's roads every year.
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01:08
In America alone, 33,000 people
are killed each year.
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仅仅在美国,
每年就有3万3千人死于车祸。
01:12
To put that in perspective,
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换个方式说,
01:14
that's the same as a 737
falling out of the sky every working day.
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等同于每天都有一架737飞机失事。
01:19
It's kind of unbelievable.
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有点不可思议。
01:21
Cars are sold to us like this,
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汽车卖给我们后应该是这样一番景象,
01:23
but really, this is what driving's like.
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但事实上,驾驶过程通常是这样。
01:26
Right? It's not sunny, it's rainy,
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对吧?这不是晴天,是雨天,
01:28
and you want to do anything
other than drive.
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而且除了开车,
你还想做点别的事情。
01:31
And the reason why is this:
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原因就是:
01:32
Traffic is getting worse.
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交通状况变得越来越糟。
01:34
In America, between 1990 and 2010,
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在美国,从1990年到2010年,
01:38
the vehicle miles traveled
increased by 38 percent.
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交通工具的里程数增加了38%。
01:42
We grew by six percent of roads,
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而我们只增修了6%的路,
01:44
so it's not in your brains.
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所以不单单是你的感觉如此。
01:46
Traffic really is substantially worse
than it was not very long ago.
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交通状况的确比以前糟糕得多。
01:50
And all of this has a very human cost.
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所有的这一切也都伴随着人力成本。
01:53
So if you take the average commute time
in America, which is about 50 minutes,
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如果你把在美的平均通勤时间,
约50分钟,
01:57
you multiply that by the 120 million
workers we have,
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乘以我们的1亿2000万工作者,
02:01
that turns out to be
about six billion minutes
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结果就是60亿分钟,
02:03
wasted in commuting every day.
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每天会被浪费在路上。
02:05
Now, that's a big number,
so let's put it in perspective.
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这是个很大的数字,
那么我们换个方式,
02:08
You take that six billion minutes
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你把这60亿分钟,
02:09
and you divide it by the average
life expectancy of a person,
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除以人均寿命,
02:13
that turns out to be 162 lifetimes
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得出数字是162个生命周期。
02:16
spent every day, wasted,
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仅仅从A地到B地,每天就有这么多
02:19
just getting from A to B.
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生命白白浪费掉了。
02:21
It's unbelievable.
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太难以置信了。
02:23
And then, there are those of us
who don't have the privilege
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当然,我们当中还有一些人无法享有
02:26
of sitting in traffic.
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坐到车流中来的权利。
02:28
So this is Steve.
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这个人叫史蒂夫。
02:29
He's an incredibly capable guy,
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他是个很有才能的人。
02:31
but he just happens to be blind,
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但很不幸,他是盲人,
02:33
and that means instead of a 30-minute
drive to work in the morning,
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这意味着本来早上
上班路上的30分钟,
02:37
it's a two-hour ordeal
of piecing together bits of public transit
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变成了两个小时的
各种转乘公共交通的折磨,
02:41
or asking friends and family for a ride.
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或者是请求朋友或家人载他一程。
02:43
He doesn't have that same freedom
that you and I have to get around.
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他并没有像你我一样
想去哪儿就去哪儿的自由。
02:47
We should do something about that.
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我们应该改变这种现状。
02:49
Now, conventional wisdom would say
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现在,传统观点认为,
02:51
that we'll just take
these driver assistance systems
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我们应该使用驾驶员辅助系统,
02:54
and we'll kind of push them
and incrementally improve them,
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然后不停改进它们,
02:57
and over time, they'll turn
into self-driving cars.
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总有一天,它们能够实现自动驾驶。
03:00
Well, I'm here to tell you
that's like me saying
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事实上我今天来就是想告诉你们,
这就跟
03:02
that if I work really hard at jumping,
one day I'll be able to fly.
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如果我努力练习弹跳,
有一天我就能飞翔一样不现实。
03:06
We actually need to do
something a little different.
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我们需要做点不同的东西。
03:09
And so I'm going to talk to you
about three different ways
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我会跟你们介绍
自动驾驶系统和驾驶员辅助系统的
三个不同方面。
03:12
that self-driving systems are different
than driver assistance systems.
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03:15
And I'm going to start
with some of our own experience.
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我先从自己的经历说起。
03:18
So back in 2013,
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在2013年,
03:20
we had the first test
of a self-driving car
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我们进行了第一次自动驾驶测试,
03:23
where we let regular people use it.
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让普通人来操作。
03:25
Well, almost regular --
they were 100 Googlers,
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算是普通人吧——
他们是100名谷歌员工,
03:27
but they weren't working on the project.
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但他们没有参与开发这个项目。
03:29
And we gave them the car and we allowed
them to use it in their daily lives.
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我们把车给他们,
让他们在日常生活中使用。
03:33
But unlike a real self-driving car,
this one had a big asterisk with it:
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但与真的自动驾驶汽车不同,
这一辆得加个星号上去:
03:36
They had to pay attention,
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他们得留多个心眼儿,
03:38
because this was an experimental vehicle.
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因为这只是一辆试验车。
03:40
We tested it a lot,
but it could still fail.
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我们虽然进行了很多测试,
但还是有风险。
03:44
And so we gave them two hours of training,
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我们对他们进行了两个小时的训练,
03:46
we put them in the car,
we let them use it,
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然后让他们进行实际操作,
03:48
and what we heard back
was something awesome,
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然后我们得到了一些很好的反馈,
03:50
as someone trying
to bring a product into the world.
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因为有人把产品带到现实中来了。
03:53
Every one of them told us they loved it.
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每个人都对它赞不绝口。
03:55
In fact, we had a Porsche driver
who came in and told us on the first day,
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事实上,在第一天
有一个保时捷驾驶员进来跟我们说,
03:58
"This is completely stupid.
What are we thinking?"
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“这实在是太无厘头了。
你们到底怎么想的?”
04:01
But at the end of it, he said,
"Not only should I have it,
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但最后,他说,“不单是我需要它,
04:04
everyone else should have it,
because people are terrible drivers."
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每个人都需要有一辆,
大家的车技都太烂了。”
04:09
So this was music to our ears,
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这番话就是我们的福音,
04:10
but then we started to look at what
the people inside the car were doing,
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然后我们开始观察
人们在车里都在做什么,
04:14
and this was eye-opening.
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真让人大开眼界。
04:16
Now, my favorite story is this gentleman
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我最喜欢的故事,是一位先生
04:18
who looks down at his phone
and realizes the battery is low,
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低头看手机,发现手机快没电了,
04:22
so he turns around like this in the car
and digs around in his backpack,
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然后他在车里这样转过身,
在背包里四处摸索着,
04:27
pulls out his laptop,
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拿出他的笔记本电脑,
放到副驾驶座位上,
04:29
puts it on the seat,
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04:30
goes in the back again,
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再转过身,
04:32
digs around, pulls out
the charging cable for his phone,
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又摸了一通,拿出手机充电线,
04:35
futzes around, puts it into the laptop,
puts it on the phone.
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理一下线,插进电脑里,连上手机。
04:39
Sure enough, the phone is charging.
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棒极了,手机有电了。
04:41
All the time he's been doing
65 miles per hour down the freeway.
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而他那时正行驶在时速65英里的高速上
(约104公里每小时)。
04:45
Right? Unbelievable.
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能想象到吗?太难以置信了。
04:47
So we thought about this and we said,
it's kind of obvious, right?
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所以我们想了想,说,
这挺明显的对吧?
04:50
The better the technology gets,
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科技越来越发达,
04:53
the less reliable
the driver is going to get.
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驾驶员就不需要太负责任。
04:55
So by just making the cars
incrementally smarter,
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所以只是把车变得更加智能,
04:57
we're probably not going to see
the wins we really need.
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并没法让我们看到真正需要的成功。
05:00
Let me talk about something
a little technical for a moment here.
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我在这里要暂时说一点技术上的东西。
05:04
So we're looking at this graph,
and along the bottom
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在这张图上,底部的线
05:06
is how often does the car
apply the brakes when it shouldn't.
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代表着在不必要的时候
制动刹车发生的频率。
05:09
You can ignore most of that axis,
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你可以忽略这条轴的大部分.
05:11
because if you're driving around town,
and the car starts stopping randomly,
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因为如果你在城里开车,
然后车时不时自己停下来。
05:15
you're never going to buy that car.
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你永远都不会买这辆车。
05:17
And the vertical axis is how often
the car is going to apply the brakes
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竖直的轴线表示车会
在你需要避免事故时
05:20
when it's supposed to
to help you avoid an accident.
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采取制动刹车的频率。
05:23
Now, if we look at
the bottom left corner here,
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如果我们看左下角,
05:25
this is your classic car.
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这是你们正在开的普通汽车。
05:27
It doesn't apply the brakes for you,
it doesn't do anything goofy,
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它不会自动为你刹车,
也不至于刹车失灵,
05:30
but it also doesn't get you
out of an accident.
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但它无法为你避免事故。
05:33
Now, if we want to bring
a driver assistance system into a car,
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如果我们把驾驶员辅助系统
装进车里,
05:36
say with collision mitigation braking,
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比如说撞击缓冲刹车系统,
我们会导入一系列的科技,
05:38
we're going to put some package
of technology on there,
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05:40
and that's this curve, and it's going
to have some operating properties,
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也就是这条曲线,
它有了一些操作属性,
但也不会完全规避事故,
05:44
but it's never going to avoid
all of the accidents,
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因为它没有这个能力。
05:46
because it doesn't have that capability.
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但我们会在曲线上取某个点,
05:48
But we'll pick some place
along the curve here,
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也许它可以避免一半
因驾驶员失误引起的事故。
05:51
and maybe it avoids half of accidents
that the human driver misses,
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挺赞的,对吧?
05:54
and that's amazing, right?
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我们可以减少一半的交通事故。
05:55
We just reduced accidents on our roads
by a factor of two.
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05:58
There are now 17,000 less people
dying every year in America.
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这样每年在美国就有1万7千人
幸免于难。
06:02
But if we want a self-driving car,
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但如果我们想要一辆自动驾驶汽车,
06:04
we need a technology curve
that looks like this.
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我们需要一条这样的曲线。
06:06
We're going to have to put
more sensors in the vehicle,
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我们得在车里加装更多的传感器,
06:09
and we'll pick some
operating point up here
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然后在这里挑某个操作点,
06:11
where it basically never
gets into a crash.
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在这个点上基本
永远不会有事故发生。
06:13
They'll happen, but very low frequency.
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多少还是会发生,但概率极低。
06:15
Now you and I could look at this
and we could argue
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现在我们可以看看这里,
探讨一下是否有所增加,
我会提到比方说“80-20规则”,
06:18
about whether it's incremental, and
I could say something like "80-20 rule,"
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06:21
and it's really hard to move up
to that new curve.
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而且很难再上升了。
但让我们暂时从另一个角度看一看。
06:24
But let's look at it
from a different direction for a moment.
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我们看看这种科技应用的频率多高。
06:27
So let's look at how often
the technology has to do the right thing.
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06:30
And so this green dot up here
is a driver assistance system.
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这个绿点表示驾驶员辅助系统。
06:34
It turns out that human drivers
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调查发现人类驾驶员
06:36
make mistakes that lead
to traffic accidents
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因为自身错误导致的交通事故,
06:39
about once every 100,000 miles in America.
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在美国是每10万英里(约16万公里)
发生一次。
06:42
In contrast, a self-driving system
is probably making decisions
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对比之下,自动驾驶系统约在每秒
06:45
about 10 times per second,
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会自行做10次决定。
06:49
so order of magnitude,
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所以就数量级而言,
06:50
that's about 1,000 times per mile.
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约是每英里(1.6公里)1000次。
06:53
So if you compare the distance
between these two,
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如果你对比一下两者的差距,
06:56
it's about 10 to the eighth, right?
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就是10的八次方,对吧?
06:58
Eight orders of magnitude.
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8个数量级,
07:00
That's like comparing how fast I run
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这就像拿我跑步的速度
07:03
to the speed of light.
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和光速比较,
07:05
It doesn't matter how hard I train,
I'm never actually going to get there.
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即便我再刻苦训练,
也永远达不到光速。
07:09
So there's a pretty big gap there.
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所以这个跨度非常大。
07:11
And then finally, there's how
the system can handle uncertainty.
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最后,就是这个系统如何
处理不确定性。
07:15
So this pedestrian here might be
stepping into the road, might not be.
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那么这个行人可能会走到路上,
也可能不会。
07:18
I can't tell,
nor can any of our algorithms,
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我不确定,也没有任何算法能确定,
但对于驾驶员辅助系统来说,
07:22
but in the case of
a driver assistance system,
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07:24
that means it can't take action,
because again,
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这意味着它无法采取措施,
因为如果它在预期之外采取制动,
是完全不合适的。
07:27
if it presses the brakes unexpectedly,
that's completely unacceptable.
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07:30
Whereas a self-driving system
can look at that pedestrian and say,
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但自动驾驶系统则会观察行人,
07:33
I don't know what they're about to do,
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然后说我不知道他们要做什么,
07:35
slow down, take a better look,
and then react appropriately after that.
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于是减速,再仔细观察,
然后采取适当措施。
07:39
So it can be much safer than
a driver assistance system can ever be.
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所以这就比驾驶员辅助系统
要安全得多,
07:43
So that's enough about
the differences between the two.
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那么以上的例子就
足以体现这两者的区别了。
07:45
Let's spend some time talking about
how the car sees the world.
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现在我们再花点时间聊聊
车是如何观察环境的。
07:49
So this is our vehicle.
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这是我们的车。
07:50
It starts by understanding
where it is in the world,
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它从识别自己的位置开始,
通过将它的地图和
传感器数据进行叠加,
07:53
by taking a map and its sensor data
and aligning the two,
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07:55
and then we layer on top of that
what it sees in the moment.
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然后我们再加上它当时看到的东西,
07:58
So here, all the purple boxes you can see
are other vehicles on the road,
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所以在这里所有你能看到的紫色盒子
是路上的其他车辆,
08:02
and the red thing on the side
over there is a cyclist,
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旁边红色的物体则是一位骑单车的人,
08:05
and up in the distance,
if you look really closely,
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如果你再仔细点看,在远处,
08:07
you can see some cones.
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你能看到一些锥形路障。
08:09
Then we know where the car
is in the moment,
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这样我们就能知道汽车现在的位置了,
08:12
but we have to do better than that:
we have to predict what's going to happen.
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但我们还得再改善:
我们得预测将发生的事情。
08:15
So here the pickup truck in top right
is about to make a left lane change
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这里右上角的小卡车正准备换到左道,
因为前面的路被封了,
08:19
because the road in front of it is closed,
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所以它得驶离原车道。
08:21
so it needs to get out of the way.
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08:23
Knowing that one pickup truck is great,
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能知道一辆小卡车的轨迹确实不错,
08:25
but we really need to know
what everybody's thinking,
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但我们真正需要的是
了解每个人的想法,
08:27
so it becomes quite a complicated problem.
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所以问题就变得十分复杂了。
08:30
And then given that, we can figure out
how the car should respond in the moment,
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了解这些之后,
我们就可以算出汽车该如何应对,
08:34
so what trajectory it should follow, how
quickly it should slow down or speed up.
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该跟随哪条线路,
要多快实现减速或者加速。
08:38
And then that all turns into
just following a path:
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所有的这一切最终都会
变成跟随一条路径:
08:41
turning the steering wheel left or right,
pressing the brake or gas.
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向左或还是右打方向盘,
踩刹车还是油门。
08:45
It's really just two numbers
at the end of the day.
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所有的一切最终都
简化成了两个数值,
08:47
So how hard can it really be?
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那这能有多难呢?
08:50
Back when we started in 2009,
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在2009年我们刚开始测试的时候,
08:52
this is what our system looked like.
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我们的系统看起来是这样的。
你能看到我们的车在中间,
路上还有其他盒子,
08:54
So you can see our car in the middle
and the other boxes on the road,
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同时在高速上行驶着。
08:57
driving down the highway.
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08:58
The car needs to understand where it is
and roughly where the other vehicles are.
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这辆车需要知道自己的位置
以及其他车辆的大概方位。
基本上就是一种几何的分析方式。
09:02
It's really a geometric
understanding of the world.
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09:05
Once we started driving
on neighborhood and city streets,
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当我们开始在社区和
城市道路上行驶时,
09:08
the problem becomes a whole
new level of difficulty.
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问题又上升到了一个新的难度。
09:10
You see pedestrians crossing in front
of us, cars crossing in front of us,
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你能看到行人在我们面前穿梭,
还有汽车,
09:13
going every which way,
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横纵交错,
09:15
the traffic lights, crosswalks.
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还有红绿灯,人行横道。
09:17
It's an incredibly complicated
problem by comparison.
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相比之下问题变得极度复杂。
09:20
And then once you have
that problem solved,
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当你把这个问题解决后,
09:22
the vehicle has to be able
to deal with construction.
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接下来汽车还得能应付建筑施工。
09:24
So here are the cones on the left
forcing it to drive to the right,
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所以左边的锥形路障会
迫使汽车开到右边,
09:27
but not just construction
in isolation, of course.
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当然不仅需要避开施工区域,
09:30
It has to deal with other people moving
through that construction zone as well.
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它还得应付在其间走动的其他人。
09:34
And of course, if anyone's
breaking the rules, the police are there
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当然,如果有人违规了,
有警察在那里,
汽车就得明白车上闪着灯
09:37
and the car has to understand that
that flashing light on the top of the car
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09:40
means that it's not just a car,
it's actually a police officer.
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意味着这不仅仅是一辆车,
还有一位警官。
09:43
Similarly, the orange box
on the side here,
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类似的,这里路边橘黄色的盒子,
是校车,
09:46
it's a school bus,
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09:47
and we have to treat that
differently as well.
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我们也得分开来处理。
09:50
When we're out on the road,
other people have expectations:
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当我们在路上时,
其他人会表达各种意图:
09:53
So, when a cyclist puts up their arm,
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当骑单车的人举起他们的手臂,
09:55
it means they're expecting the car
to yield to them and make room for them
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这就意味着他们希望有车能
让给他们点空间
09:58
to make a lane change.
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以便进行换道。
10:01
And when a police officer
stood in the road,
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当路中间站着一位警官,
10:03
our vehicle should understand
that this means stop,
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我们的车得明白这手势是要你停下来,
10:05
and when they signal to go,
we should continue.
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当他们示意我们可以走了,
我们才能继续。
10:09
Now, the way we accomplish this
is by sharing data between the vehicles.
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我们达成这些目标,
是通过和其他车辆分享数据。
10:13
The first, most crude model of this
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首先,最简单粗制的模型,
10:14
is when one vehicle
sees a construction zone,
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就是当一辆车看到建筑施工地带时,
10:17
having another know about it
so it can be in the correct lane
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告知另一辆车,让它驶上正确的车道
10:20
to avoid some of the difficulty.
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以避免麻烦。
10:21
But we actually have a much
deeper understanding of this.
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但我们对此有更深的认识。
10:24
We could take all of the data
that the cars have seen over time,
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我们可以搜集车辆在一段时间内
看到的数据,
10:27
the hundreds of thousands
of pedestrians, cyclists,
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数以千计在路上的行人,骑单车的人,
10:29
and vehicles that have been out there
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以及其他车辆,
10:31
and understand what they look like
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1695
了解他们的外形,
10:33
and use that to infer
what other vehicles should look like
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2831
再用之去推理其他车辆
以及其他行人的外形。
10:36
and other pedestrians should look like.
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10:37
And then, even more importantly,
we could take from that a model
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3021
然后,更重要的是,
我们可以从中得出一个模型,
10:40
of how we expect them
to move through the world.
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预测所有交通参与者的去向。
10:43
So here the yellow box is a pedestrian
crossing in front of us.
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这里的黄色盒子是
我们面前过马路的行人。
10:46
Here the blue box is a cyclist
and we anticipate
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这个蓝色盒子是个骑单车的人,
而且我们预测
10:48
that they're going to nudge out
and around the car to the right.
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他会一直保持在车辆右侧。
10:52
Here there's a cyclist
coming down the road
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2092
这里有个在路上骑单车的人,
10:54
and we know they're going to continue
to drive down the shape of the road.
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3486
我们知道他会沿着路一直骑下去。
这里有人右转了,
10:57
Here somebody makes a right turn,
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10:59
and in a moment here, somebody's
going to make a U-turn in front of us,
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而在这里,有人会在我们面前调头,
11:02
and we can anticipate that behavior
and respond safely.
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我们可以预测这个行为并安全应对。
11:05
Now, that's all well and good
for things that we've seen,
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目前为止,对于我们见过的场景
都没什么问题,
但当然,你还会遇见很多
11:08
but of course, you encounter
lots of things that you haven't
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之前没见过的东西。
11:11
seen in the world before.
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几个月前,
11:12
And so just a couple of months ago,
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我们的车辆在通过Mountain View
(硅谷地名)的时候,
11:14
our vehicles were driving
through Mountain View,
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就遇到了这样的情景。
11:16
and this is what we encountered.
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这是个坐着电动轮椅的女士,
11:17
This is a woman in an electric wheelchair
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在路中央绕着圈追赶一只鸭子。
(笑声)
11:20
chasing a duck in circles on the road.
(Laughter)
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11:22
Now it turns out, there is nowhere
in the DMV handbook
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3111
结果呢,在机动车驾驶管理处的手册里
11:25
that tells you how to deal with that,
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没有一条告诉你该怎么做,
11:28
but our vehicles were able
to encounter that,
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但我们的车辆却能灵活应对,
减速并安全通过。
11:30
slow down, and drive safely.
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11:32
Now, we don't have to deal
with just ducks.
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2041
我们应付的不只是鸭子,
11:34
Watch this bird fly across in front of us.
The car reacts to that.
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3708
看看这只飞过我们面前的鸟,
汽车也会对之做出处理。
11:38
Here we're dealing with a cyclist
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这里还有一个骑车的,
11:39
that you would never expect to see
anywhere other than Mountain View.
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估计除了在Mountain View,
其他地方很难见到。
11:43
And of course, we have
to deal with drivers,
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当然,我们还得应付其他驾驶员,
11:45
even the very small ones.
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甚至那些幼龄的。
11:48
Watch to the right as someone
jumps out of this truck at us.
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注意右边,那个从货车上跳下来的人。
11:54
And now, watch the left as the car
with the green box decides
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2929
现在,注意左边绿盒子那辆车,
11:57
he needs to make a right turn
at the last possible moment.
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它决定在最后的时刻右转。
12:00
Here, as we make a lane change,
the car to our left decides
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2851
这里,当我们变道时,我们左边的车
12:03
it wants to as well.
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3553
也同样想变道。
12:07
And here, we watch a car
blow through a red light
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还有这里,我们看到一辆车闯了红灯,
12:09
and yield to it.
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我们就先让它通过。
12:11
And similarly, here, a cyclist
blowing through that light as well.
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同样这里,骑单车的人也闯红灯了,
12:15
And of course,
the vehicle responds safely.
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不出所料,
我们的车也能安全应对。
12:18
And of course, we have people
who do I don't know what
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当然还有一些莫名其妙的人,
12:21
sometimes on the road, like this guy
pulling out between two self-driving cars.
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3823
就像这家伙一样,
直接就从两辆自动驾驶汽车中窜出来。
12:24
You have to ask, "What are you thinking?"
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2045
你会想问,“你脑子是怎么想的?”
12:26
(Laughter)
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1212
(笑声)
12:28
Now, I just fire-hosed you
with a lot of stuff there,
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2521
我已经给你们看了大量的例子,
12:30
so I'm going to break one of these
down pretty quickly.
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我快速地讲一下其中的一个案例。
我们现在看到的还是骑单车的人,
12:33
So what we're looking at is the scene
with the cyclist again,
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你们可能会发现在下面的视角,
我们还看不到那个人,
12:36
and you might notice in the bottom,
we can't actually see the cyclist yet,
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3491
12:39
but the car can: it's that little
blue box up there,
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2504
但车能看到:就是那里的小蓝盒子,
这来自于激光数据。
12:42
and that comes from the laser data.
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2081
这并不是很容易理解,
12:44
And that's not actually
really easy to understand,
275
764369
2418
那么我接下来要做的,
就是调出激光数据看一下,
12:46
so what I'm going to do is I'm going
to turn that laser data and look at it,
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3584
如果你擅长分析激光数据,你能发现
12:50
and if you're really good at looking
at laser data, you can see
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曲线上的一些点,
就在那儿,
那个蓝色小盒子就是骑单车的人。
12:53
a few dots on the curve there,
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1487
12:54
right there, and that blue box
is that cyclist.
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2372
这会儿面对我们的还是红灯,
12:57
Now as our light is red,
280
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1149
自行车道的灯已经变黄了,
12:58
the cyclist's light
has turned yellow already,
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2192
如果你瞥一眼的话,就能看到了。
13:00
and if you squint, you can see that
in the imagery.
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2438
但是骑单车的人,
我们看到他准备穿过这个十字路口,
13:03
But the cyclist, we see, is going
to proceed through the intersection.
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783038
3286
13:06
Our light has now turned green,
his is solidly red,
284
786324
2394
我们的灯已经变绿,
他的方向也变红了,
13:08
and we now anticipate that this bike
is going to come all the way across.
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788718
4292
我们预期到这辆单车将会横穿马路。
13:13
Unfortunately the other drivers next to us
were not paying as much attention.
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3742
但不幸的是,
我们旁边的其他司机并没有注意到。
13:16
They started to pull forward,
and fortunately for everyone,
287
796752
3157
他们开始踩油门,
不过幸运的是,
13:19
this cyclists reacts, avoids,
288
799909
3011
骑单车的人及时避开了,
13:22
and makes it through the intersection.
289
802920
2191
然后平安地穿过了十字路口。
13:25
And off we go.
290
805111
1568
之后我们才又继续前进。
13:26
Now, as you can see, we've made
some pretty exciting progress,
291
806679
2948
正如你们所见,
我们已取得了一些激动人心的成就,
13:29
and at this point we're pretty convinced
292
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1902
此时我们深信
13:31
this technology is going
to come to market.
293
811529
2010
这项技术将会进入市场。
13:33
We do three million miles of testing
in our simulators every single day,
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813539
4783
我们每天用虚拟器做
3百万英里的测试,
13:38
so you can imagine the experience
that our vehicles have.
295
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2689
所以你就能够想象到
我们的车辆获得了多少经验。
13:41
We are looking forward to having
this technology on the road,
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821011
2864
我们期待这项技术能在道路上使用,
13:43
and we think the right path
is to go through the self-driving
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2890
并且认为正确的选择是自动驾驶,
13:46
rather than driver assistance approach
298
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1844
而非驾驶员辅助系统,
13:48
because the urgency is so large.
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828609
2621
因为情况已经刻不容缓了。
13:51
In the time I have given this talk today,
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就在我演讲的时间段内,
13:53
34 people have died on America's roads.
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833623
3135
在美国的公路上已经有34人丧生。
13:56
How soon can we bring it out?
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836758
2368
我们多久能实现这个目标呢?
13:59
Well, it's hard to say because
it's a really complicated problem,
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839126
3832
嗯,很难说,
因为这是个很复杂的问题,
14:02
but these are my two boys.
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842958
2214
这两个是我的儿子。
14:05
My oldest son is 11, and that means
in four and a half years,
305
845172
3623
大的11岁,也就是说在四年半后,
14:08
he's going to be able
to get his driver's license.
306
848795
2577
他就能去考驾照了。
14:11
My team and I are committed
to making sure that doesn't happen.
307
851372
3204
我和我的团队承诺
尽量不让他去考(已经不需要了)。
14:14
Thank you.
308
854576
1904
谢谢。
14:16
(Laughter) (Applause)
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856480
3667
(笑声)(掌声)
克利斯·安德森(CA):
克里斯,我有个问题要问你。
14:21
Chris Anderson: Chris,
I've got a question for you.
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2568
14:23
Chris Urmson: Sure.
311
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2809
克里斯·厄姆森(CU):问吧。
14:26
CA: So certainly, the mind of your cars
is pretty mind-boggling.
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3924
CA:显而易见,
你们的车有着让人惊奇的大脑。
14:30
On this debate between
driver-assisted and fully driverless --
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4459
在驾驶辅助和无人驾驶这场辩论上——
14:34
I mean, there's a real debate
going on out there right now.
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我是说,现在就有一场真正的辩论。
14:37
So some of the companies,
for example, Tesla,
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一些公司,例如,特斯拉,
14:40
are going the driver-assisted route.
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正在走驾驶辅助的路线。
14:42
What you're saying is that
that's kind of going to be a dead end
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而你所说的,
就是这将是个没前途的死胡同,
14:48
because you can't just keep improving
that route and get to fully driverless
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因为你不能指望在这方面不断提高
就会在某个时候实现无人驾驶,
14:53
at some point, and then a driver
is going to say, "This feels safe,"
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然后有驾驶员说
“这已经挺安全的了”,
14:57
and climb into the back,
and something ugly will happen.
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然后转身去后座,
不幸就发生了。
14:59
CU: Right. No, that's exactly right,
and it's not to say
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CU:对,你说得对,这并不是说
15:02
that the driver assistance systems
aren't going to be incredibly valuable.
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驾驶员辅助系统作用不大。
15:05
They can save a lot of lives
in the interim,
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它能在这个过渡阶段拯救很多生命,
但为了抓住这一变革性的机会,
能帮助像史蒂夫这样的人行动自如,
15:08
but to see the transformative opportunity
to help someone like Steve get around,
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15:11
to really get to the end case in safety,
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为了终结安全事故,
15:13
to have the opportunity
to change our cities
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为了有机会改变我们的城市,
15:16
and move parking out and get rid of
these urban craters we call parking lots,
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解决停车问题,
摆脱我们称为停车场的城市大坑,
15:20
it's the only way to go.
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这是唯一的办法了。
15:21
CA: We will be tracking your progress
with huge interest.
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CA:我们会带着浓厚的兴趣
关注你们的进展的。
15:24
Thanks so much, Chris.
CU: Thank you. (Applause)
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谢谢你,克里斯。
CU:谢谢。(掌声)
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