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譯者: Kenny Lo
審譯者: Yamei Huang
00:12
So in 1885, Karl Benz
invented the automobile.
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1885年,卡爾·賓士發明汽車。
00:16
Later that year, he took it out
for the first public test drive,
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那年底,
他開著那台車做了第一次公開試駕,
00:20
and -- true story --
crashed into a wall.
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結果,撞毀了。
00:24
For the last 130 years,
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過去 130 年來,
00:26
we've been working around that least
reliable part of the car, the driver.
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我們一直致力於改進
車裡最不可靠的部分,駕駛。
00:30
We've made the car stronger.
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我們讓車子更堅固。
00:32
We've added seat belts,
we've added air bags,
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我們加上安全帶和安全氣囊,
00:34
and in the last decade, we've actually
started trying to make the car smarter
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過去十年,
我們想辦法讓車子變得更聰明
00:38
to fix that bug, the driver.
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來修正駕駛這個問題。
00:41
Now, today I'm going to talk to you
a little bit about the difference
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現在,我要告訴你
00:44
between patching around the problem
with driver assistance systems
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使用駕駛輔助系統來修正這問題,
00:48
and actually having fully
self-driving cars
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和完全自動化駕駛其中的差異
00:51
and what they can do for the world.
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以及在世界上所產生的影響。
00:53
I'm also going to talk to you
a little bit about our car
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我也將告訴你
關於我們車子的一些細節
00:56
and allow you to see how it sees the world
and how it reacts and what it does,
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讓你可以了解它所看到的世界
以及如何對外界做出反應,
01:00
but first I'm going to talk
a little bit about the problem.
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首先我先來探討一個問題。
01:03
And it's a big problem:
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是一個大問題:
01:05
1.2 million people are killed
on the world's roads every year.
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全世界每年有 120 萬人
死於交通事故。
01:08
In America alone, 33,000 people
are killed each year.
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僅僅美國,
每年就佔了 33,000 人。
01:12
To put that in perspective,
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依此數據與飛機事故比較,
01:14
that's the same as a 737
falling out of the sky every working day.
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等於每個上班日,
都有一台 737 從空中掉下。
01:19
It's kind of unbelievable.
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有點讓人無法置信。
01:21
Cars are sold to us like this,
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車輛以這種模式賣給我們,
01:23
but really, this is what driving's like.
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但實際上,
這才是我們開車所遇到的狀況,
01:26
Right? It's not sunny, it's rainy,
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對吧?不是晴天,而是雨天,
01:28
and you want to do anything
other than drive.
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除了開車外你還想要做其他事。
01:31
And the reason why is this:
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就是這個原因:
01:32
Traffic is getting worse.
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交通變得更糟糕了。
01:34
In America, between 1990 and 2010,
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在美國,1990 年到 2010 年間,
01:38
the vehicle miles traveled
increased by 38 percent.
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汽車行駛哩程數增加百分之三十八,
01:42
We grew by six percent of roads,
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但是道路只增加百分之六,
01:44
so it's not in your brains.
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所以不是錯覺。
01:46
Traffic really is substantially worse
than it was not very long ago.
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跟幾年前比起來
交通其實是變差。
01:50
And all of this has a very human cost.
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所有這一切都代表大量的人力成本。
01:53
So if you take the average commute time
in America, which is about 50 minutes,
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以美國平均通勤時間來看,
大約 50 分鐘,
01:57
you multiply that by the 120 million
workers we have,
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乘以目前約一億兩千萬工作人口,
02:01
that turns out to be
about six billion minutes
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將會是六十億分鐘的時間
02:03
wasted in commuting every day.
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浪費在每天的通勤上。
02:05
Now, that's a big number,
so let's put it in perspective.
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這是個很大的數值,
這個數據,相當於
02:08
You take that six billion minutes
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把六十億分鐘的時間
02:09
and you divide it by the average
life expectancy of a person,
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除以一般人的平均壽命,
02:13
that turns out to be 162 lifetimes
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將會是 162 個人一生的時間
02:16
spent every day, wasted,
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每天浪費在這交通上面,
02:19
just getting from A to B.
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只是要從 A 點移動到 B 點。
02:21
It's unbelievable.
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讓人無法置信。
02:23
And then, there are those of us
who don't have the privilege
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而且,有些在交通上
02:26
of sitting in traffic.
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弱勢的人,
02:28
So this is Steve.
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這是史蒂夫。
02:29
He's an incredibly capable guy,
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一個非常有才能力的人,
02:31
but he just happens to be blind,
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但是他卻是眼睛失明,
02:33
and that means instead of a 30-minute
drive to work in the morning,
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他不是每天早上
花 30 分鐘開車上班,
02:37
it's a two-hour ordeal
of piecing together bits of public transit
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而是要痛苦的花兩個時
轉搭大眾運輸工具
02:41
or asking friends and family for a ride.
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或請求朋友或親人接送。
02:43
He doesn't have that same freedom
that you and I have to get around.
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他無法像你我一樣
有到處走動的自由。
02:47
We should do something about that.
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我們應該做一些事情。
02:49
Now, conventional wisdom would say
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在現在傳統的思慮會提到
02:51
that we'll just take
these driver assistance systems
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我們可以使用一些駕駛輔助系統
02:54
and we'll kind of push them
and incrementally improve them,
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我們則持續的推動及改善整個系統,
02:57
and over time, they'll turn
into self-driving cars.
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隨著時間演進,
轉變為自動駕駛系統。
03:00
Well, I'm here to tell you
that's like me saying
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在這我要告訴你們就像我所說的
03:02
that if I work really hard at jumping,
one day I'll be able to fly.
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如果我可以很努力的跳躍,
有一天我可以飛上天
03:06
We actually need to do
something a little different.
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我們確實需要
用一些不同的方式去做事情。
03:09
And so I'm going to talk to you
about three different ways
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我將告訴你
在自動駕駛系統
03:12
that self-driving systems are different
than driver assistance systems.
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與駕駛輔助系統之間,
有三個不同點。
03:15
And I'm going to start
with some of our own experience.
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從我們本身的經驗開始談起。
03:18
So back in 2013,
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2013 年。
03:20
we had the first test
of a self-driving car
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我們第一次做自動駕駛車的測試
03:23
where we let regular people use it.
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我們讓一般大眾人去開它。
03:25
Well, almost regular --
they were 100 Googlers,
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嗯,幾乎算是 --
他們是 100 位谷歌的員工,
03:27
but they weren't working on the project.
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但他們的工作都不屬於這個專案,
03:29
And we gave them the car and we allowed
them to use it in their daily lives.
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我們提供車輛
並允許在每天的日常生活中使用。
03:33
But unlike a real self-driving car,
this one had a big asterisk with it:
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但這不像是自動駕駛的車,
上頭有一個大大的星號在車上,
03:36
They had to pay attention,
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他們必須集中注意力開車,
03:38
because this was an experimental vehicle.
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因為這些只是實驗車輛。
03:40
We tested it a lot,
but it could still fail.
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我們測試很多,
但仍有失敗狀況發生。
03:44
And so we gave them two hours of training,
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所以我們給車主 2 個小時的訓練,
03:46
we put them in the car,
we let them use it,
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再讓他們進入車內使用它,
03:48
and what we heard back
was something awesome,
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我們所收到的回覆讓人感到驚訝,
03:50
as someone trying
to bring a product into the world.
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當一個新產品嘗試進入這個世界。
03:53
Every one of them told us they loved it.
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每一個人都跟我們說他們愛上了它。
03:55
In fact, we had a Porsche driver
who came in and told us on the first day,
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事實上,第一天有一個
開保時捷的駕駛跟我們說,
03:58
"This is completely stupid.
What are we thinking?"
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「這完全是件愚蠢的事情,
不知道我們在想些什麼?」
04:01
But at the end of it, he said,
"Not only should I have it,
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但是在他測試結束後,他說
「不該只有我可以使用它,
04:04
everyone else should have it,
because people are terrible drivers."
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每個人都該使用它,
因為許多人都是個糟糕的駕駛。」
04:09
So this was music to our ears,
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這對我們來說有很大的鼓勵,
04:10
but then we started to look at what
the people inside the car were doing,
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然後我們開始研究
人們在車裡做些什麼,
04:14
and this was eye-opening.
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真讓人大開眼界。
04:16
Now, my favorite story is this gentleman
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我最喜歡的故事裡有一位男士
04:18
who looks down at his phone
and realizes the battery is low,
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他低頭看手機
發現電池快沒電了,
04:22
so he turns around like this in the car
and digs around in his backpack,
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然後在車裡像這樣轉過身來,
並且在背包裡找尋東西,
04:27
pulls out his laptop,
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拿出一台筆記型電腦,
04:29
puts it on the seat,
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放在前座,
04:30
goes in the back again,
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再回頭一次,
04:32
digs around, pulls out
the charging cable for his phone,
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繼續搜尋,拿出手機的充電線,
04:35
futzes around, puts it into the laptop,
puts it on the phone.
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轉身回來,
把電源線接上筆電跟手機。
04:39
Sure enough, the phone is charging.
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當然他的手機已經開始充電了。
04:41
All the time he's been doing
65 miles per hour down the freeway.
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同時他以 65 英哩的速度
在高速公路上行駛。
04:45
Right? Unbelievable.
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讓人無法置信。
04:47
So we thought about this and we said,
it's kind of obvious, right?
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我們思考這整件事情,
有明顯的結論
04:50
The better the technology gets,
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有更好的科技輔助,
04:53
the less reliable
the driver is going to get.
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駕駛就越不可靠。
04:55
So by just making the cars
incrementally smarter,
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若只讓車子變得更聰明,
04:57
we're probably not going to see
the wins we really need.
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那就和我們希望達到的結果不同。
05:00
Let me talk about something
a little technical for a moment here.
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讓我來談論有關技術的部分。
05:04
So we're looking at this graph,
and along the bottom
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我們來看這圖型,底部的部分,
05:06
is how often does the car
apply the brakes when it shouldn't.
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是在不該踩煞車的情況下
卻踩煞車的頻率,
05:09
You can ignore most of that axis,
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你可以忽略大部分的 X 軸,
05:11
because if you're driving around town,
and the car starts stopping randomly,
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因為如果在你開車到鎮上的路程中,
隨時煞車的話,
05:15
you're never going to buy that car.
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你將不會買這部車。
05:17
And the vertical axis is how often
the car is going to apply the brakes
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從垂直軸上
可以看到當車輛踩煞車後
05:20
when it's supposed to
to help you avoid an accident.
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可以幫助你避免意外的頻率。
05:23
Now, if we look at
the bottom left corner here,
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現在,我們看到左下角這個點,
05:25
this is your classic car.
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這是我們一般的車輛。
05:27
It doesn't apply the brakes for you,
it doesn't do anything goofy,
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他不會幫忙煞車
傻傻的也不會幫忙任何事,
05:30
but it also doesn't get you
out of an accident.
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當然也無法幫你避免意外。
05:33
Now, if we want to bring
a driver assistance system into a car,
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現在,
如果我們想要引進駕駛輔助系統,
05:36
say with collision mitigation braking,
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如碰撞減輕煞車系統。
05:38
we're going to put some package
of technology on there,
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我們將在這上面導入一些技術方案,
05:40
and that's this curve, and it's going
to have some operating properties,
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由這個曲線得知,
這系統可以發揮一些功效,
05:44
but it's never going to avoid
all of the accidents,
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但仍不可能避免所有的意外,
05:46
because it doesn't have that capability.
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因為尚未有足夠的能力。
05:48
But we'll pick some place
along the curve here,
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但我們可以在這個曲線中挑一點,
05:51
and maybe it avoids half of accidents
that the human driver misses,
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它也許就足夠避免掉一半
人為疏失所造成的意外,
05:54
and that's amazing, right?
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非常神奇,對吧?
05:55
We just reduced accidents on our roads
by a factor of two.
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我們改變一、兩個因素
就可以把路上的意外事故減少一半。
05:58
There are now 17,000 less people
dying every year in America.
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在美國每年有接近 一萬七千人
死於交通事故。
06:02
But if we want a self-driving car,
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但如果我們想要有自動駕駛車輛,
06:04
we need a technology curve
that looks like this.
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我們需要像這條的技術曲線。
06:06
We're going to have to put
more sensors in the vehicle,
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需要將更多的感測器放在車上,
06:09
and we'll pick some
operating point up here
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將功能調整在曲線上這一點
06:11
where it basically never
gets into a crash.
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基本上這點不會導致車禍發生。
06:13
They'll happen, but very low frequency.
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就算是有,也是個很低的機率。
06:15
Now you and I could look at this
and we could argue
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當然你可以跟我辯論這一部分
06:18
about whether it's incremental, and
I could say something like "80-20 rule,"
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曲線是否有增量性,我只能說
有些事情就像「80-20 法則」,
06:21
and it's really hard to move up
to that new curve.
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向上移動成為一個新的曲線
是非常困難的。
06:24
But let's look at it
from a different direction for a moment.
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我們暫時由另一個方向來看這件事。
06:27
So let's look at how often
the technology has to do the right thing.
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可以發現科技
做正出確的判斷有多高。
06:30
And so this green dot up here
is a driver assistance system.
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這條綠線代表的是駕駛輔助系統。
06:34
It turns out that human drivers
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結果說明了一般駕駛
06:36
make mistakes that lead
to traffic accidents
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的錯誤行為而導致意外發生
06:39
about once every 100,000 miles in America.
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在美國約每十萬英哩發生一次。
06:42
In contrast, a self-driving system
is probably making decisions
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相對的,自動駕駛系統做出決定
06:45
about 10 times per second,
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每秒大約 10 次,
06:49
so order of magnitude,
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在這個數量級,
06:50
that's about 1,000 times per mile.
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大約每英哩 1,000 次。
06:53
So if you compare the distance
between these two,
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所以如果你比較這兩個的距離,
06:56
it's about 10 to the eighth, right?
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大約是 10 的 8 次方,對吧?
06:58
Eight orders of magnitude.
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8 次方的數量級。
07:00
That's like comparing how fast I run
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這個對比有點像是
以我跑步的速度
07:03
to the speed of light.
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與光速作比較。
07:05
It doesn't matter how hard I train,
I'm never actually going to get there.
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所以不管我如何努力訓練,
都不可能實際達到那個程度。
07:09
So there's a pretty big gap there.
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他們之間有一個很大的差距。
07:11
And then finally, there's how
the system can handle uncertainty.
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最後的部分,
這個系統可以處理一些突發狀況。
07:15
So this pedestrian here might be
stepping into the road, might not be.
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這個人有可能是走在馬路上,
也有可能不是。
07:18
I can't tell,
nor can any of our algorithms,
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我不能預測,
我們的演算法也無法預測,
07:22
but in the case of
a driver assistance system,
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但是駕駛輔助系統在這情況下,
07:24
that means it can't take action,
because again,
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無法採取任何行動,
07:27
if it presses the brakes unexpectedly,
that's completely unacceptable.
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如果無預期的踩煞車
是完全無法被接受的。
07:30
Whereas a self-driving system
can look at that pedestrian and say,
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當自動駕駛系統發現這位行人會說,
07:33
I don't know what they're about to do,
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我不知道他們打算做什麼,
07:35
slow down, take a better look,
and then react appropriately after that.
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減慢速度,仔細觀察,
之後再採取更適當的回應。
07:39
So it can be much safer than
a driver assistance system can ever be.
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比起駕駛輔助系統它將會更為安全。
07:43
So that's enough about
the differences between the two.
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這是兩個不同系統之間的差別。
07:45
Let's spend some time talking about
how the car sees the world.
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我們花點時間來探討
車輛所看到的世界。
07:49
So this is our vehicle.
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這是我們的測試車。
07:50
It starts by understanding
where it is in the world,
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從理解目前所在的位置開始,
07:53
by taking a map and its sensor data
and aligning the two,
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比對地圖與感應到的訊息,
07:55
and then we layer on top of that
what it sees in the moment.
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然後把當下所看到的訊息
再加上另一訊息。
07:58
So here, all the purple boxes you can see
are other vehicles on the road,
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在裏頭,你所看到的所有紫色方框
都是路上的其他車輛,
08:02
and the red thing on the side
over there is a cyclist,
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旁邊的紅色部分則是自行車,
08:05
and up in the distance,
if you look really closely,
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如果你仔細看
上方較遠處,
08:07
you can see some cones.
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可以看到一些三角錐。
08:09
Then we know where the car
is in the moment,
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然後就可以知道車輛當時的位置,
08:12
but we have to do better than that:
we have to predict what's going to happen.
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但是我們需要做得更好:
要能夠預測出將會發生的事情,
08:15
So here the pickup truck in top right
is about to make a left lane change
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右上角有一輛小貨卡
將會切換到左邊車道
08:19
because the road in front of it is closed,
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因為前方的路段將會關閉,
08:21
so it needs to get out of the way.
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所以需要變更車道
08:23
Knowing that one pickup truck is great,
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可以預測小貨車的行徑
是件很棒的事,
08:25
but we really need to know
what everybody's thinking,
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但我們還需要知道每個人的想法,
08:27
so it becomes quite a complicated problem.
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這變成一個非常複雜的問題。
08:30
And then given that, we can figure out
how the car should respond in the moment,
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有了這資訊後,我們便可以
推測出當下車輛該如何反應。
08:34
so what trajectory it should follow, how
quickly it should slow down or speed up.
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該跟隨哪一條路線,
該多快反應減速或加速。
08:38
And then that all turns into
just following a path:
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匯集所有項目後
只要跟隨著路線,
08:41
turning the steering wheel left or right,
pressing the brake or gas.
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向左或向右轉動方向盤,
加速或踩油門。
08:45
It's really just two numbers
at the end of the day.
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只要這兩個數值
就可以持續到一天結束。
08:47
So how hard can it really be?
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所以會有多難呢?
08:50
Back when we started in 2009,
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在 2009 年我們剛開始時,
08:52
this is what our system looked like.
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我的系統看起來像這樣。
08:54
So you can see our car in the middle
and the other boxes on the road,
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你可以看到在中心有我們的車輛,
路上還有其他小方框,
08:57
driving down the highway.
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行駛在高速公路上。
08:58
The car needs to understand where it is
and roughly where the other vehicles are.
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這輛測試車需要知道它現在位置
以及其他車輛大約位置。
09:02
It's really a geometric
understanding of the world.
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用幾何方式來理解這個世界。
09:05
Once we started driving
on neighborhood and city streets,
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當開始行駛在近郊及街道中時,
09:08
the problem becomes a whole
new level of difficulty.
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這問題又變為更複雜的層次。
09:10
You see pedestrians crossing in front
of us, cars crossing in front of us,
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可以看到行人及車輛
都會在我們前面穿過,
09:13
going every which way,
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往各個方向移動,
09:15
the traffic lights, crosswalks.
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紅綠燈,行人穿越道。
09:17
It's an incredibly complicated
problem by comparison.
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相對而言
這是個相當複雜的問題。
09:20
And then once you have
that problem solved,
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一旦這問題可以被解決掉,
09:22
the vehicle has to be able
to deal with construction.
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車輛就有辦法去處理
這建構出來的環境。
09:24
So here are the cones on the left
forcing it to drive to the right,
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如果左邊有三角錐
它就會要求往右邊開,
09:27
but not just construction
in isolation, of course.
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當然不只是個封閉的施工環境。
09:30
It has to deal with other people moving
through that construction zone as well.
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它也還必須去處理
有人走在施工區的路段。
09:34
And of course, if anyone's
breaking the rules, the police are there
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當然,如果有人違規,警察在場
09:37
and the car has to understand that
that flashing light on the top of the car
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車輛必須知道車頂上有閃著燈的車輛
09:40
means that it's not just a car,
it's actually a police officer.
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代表的是警車而不是一般車輛。
09:43
Similarly, the orange box
on the side here,
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相似的情況下,
在路旁的橘色小方框,
09:46
it's a school bus,
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是一輛校車,
09:47
and we have to treat that
differently as well.
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我們也必需對它做出不同的回應。
09:50
When we're out on the road,
other people have expectations:
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當車輛在行駛的時候,
有些人會預期,
09:53
So, when a cyclist puts up their arm,
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當自行車騎士舉起他們的手臂,
09:55
it means they're expecting the car
to yield to them and make room for them
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是預期汽車可以注意到他們
並且挪出空間
09:58
to make a lane change.
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讓他們可以變換車道。
10:01
And when a police officer
stood in the road,
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當一位警察站在路上,
10:03
our vehicle should understand
that this means stop,
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測試車輛必須了解要停下來,
10:05
and when they signal to go,
we should continue.
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如果手勢指揮通行的話,
則要繼續走。
10:09
Now, the way we accomplish this
is by sharing data between the vehicles.
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經由交通工具資料共享
我們完成這個成就。
10:13
The first, most crude model of this
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首先,最原始的模型
10:14
is when one vehicle
sees a construction zone,
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當車輛遇到施工區域,
10:17
having another know about it
so it can be in the correct lane
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讓其他人收到這個訊息
然後它會選擇正確的車道
10:20
to avoid some of the difficulty.
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而避開施工的地方。
10:21
But we actually have a much
deeper understanding of this.
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但我們對這狀況有更進一步的了解。
10:24
We could take all of the data
that the cars have seen over time,
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取得車子所看到的歷史資料,
10:27
the hundreds of thousands
of pedestrians, cyclists,
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數十萬的行人,自行車,
10:29
and vehicles that have been out there
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以及視線內的車輛
10:31
and understand what they look like
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理解他們看起來像什麼
10:33
and use that to infer
what other vehicles should look like
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2831
再用來推斷其他車輛的樣式
10:36
and other pedestrians should look like.
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及其他行人的長相。
10:37
And then, even more importantly,
we could take from that a model
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3021
最重要的是,
我們會依此作為模型
10:40
of how we expect them
to move through the world.
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以及預測他們是如何移動,
10:43
So here the yellow box is a pedestrian
crossing in front of us.
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2963
黃色方框指的是
一位行人從我們面前穿越。
10:46
Here the blue box is a cyclist
and we anticipate
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藍色方框指的是自行車
而且我們預測
10:48
that they're going to nudge out
and around the car to the right.
232
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3312
他們將會沿著車輛的右邊前行。
。
10:52
Here there's a cyclist
coming down the road
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2092
這是另一輛自行車從對向而來
10:54
and we know they're going to continue
to drive down the shape of the road.
234
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而且我們知道他會沿著道路過來。
10:57
Here somebody makes a right turn,
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1867
另外有一個人要右轉,
10:59
and in a moment here, somebody's
going to make a U-turn in front of us,
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3360
同時正前方有一個人
正準備要迴轉,
11:02
and we can anticipate that behavior
and respond safely.
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2614
我們可以預測這個行為
並安全的反應。
11:05
Now, that's all well and good
for things that we've seen,
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2728
這些是我們一般常見的好的狀況,
11:08
but of course, you encounter
lots of things that you haven't
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2865
當然有時也會遇到一些事情
11:11
seen in the world before.
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1231
是之前從不曾遇到過。
11:12
And so just a couple of months ago,
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1741
幾個月前,
11:14
our vehicles were driving
through Mountain View,
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2235
測試車輛行經山景城時,
11:16
and this is what we encountered.
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我們遇到一個狀況。
11:17
This is a woman in an electric wheelchair
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2082
一位坐著電動輪椅的女人
11:20
chasing a duck in circles on the road.
(Laughter)
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在路上追逐著繞圈圈鴨子。
(笑聲)
11:22
Now it turns out, there is nowhere
in the DMV handbook
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3111
在加州管理局中的駕駛手冊中
找不到任何說明
11:25
that tells you how to deal with that,
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2245
告訴你如何處理以上狀況,
11:28
but our vehicles were able
to encounter that,
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2143
但是我們測試車輛有辦法處理它。
11:30
slow down, and drive safely.
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2255
減速,安全地行駛而過。
11:32
Now, we don't have to deal
with just ducks.
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2041
我們不只是要對付鴨子。
11:34
Watch this bird fly across in front of us.
The car reacts to that.
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3708
看到一隻鳥在前方飛越而過
車子也對它們做出反應。
11:38
Here we're dealing with a cyclist
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1615
這裡我們正在應付一位自行車騎士
11:39
that you would never expect to see
anywhere other than Mountain View.
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3290
除了在山景城外
你從來無法預期會遇到的。
11:43
And of course, we have
to deal with drivers,
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2068
當然,我們還得應付一些駕駛,
11:45
even the very small ones.
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甚至是很小事也要處理。
11:48
Watch to the right as someone
jumps out of this truck at us.
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4131
注意右邊有一個人
在我們面前從卡車上跳下來。
11:54
And now, watch the left as the car
with the green box decides
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2929
左邊有綠色方框所代表的車輛
11:57
he needs to make a right turn
at the last possible moment.
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3325
在最後一個的關頭決定右轉。
12:00
Here, as we make a lane change,
the car to our left decides
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2851
當我們決定要變換車道時,
左邊的車輛
12:03
it wants to as well.
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3553
也決定要變換車道。
12:07
And here, we watch a car
blow through a red light
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這邊我們看到一輛車子闖紅燈
12:09
and yield to it.
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2090
就讓他先過。
12:11
And similarly, here, a cyclist
blowing through that light as well.
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3854
相同的情況,
則是另一輛自行車闖紅燈。
12:15
And of course,
the vehicle responds safely.
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2746
當然測試車輛可以安全地回應。
12:18
And of course, we have people
who do I don't know what
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有時候人們會在路上
做一些無法理解的事
12:21
sometimes on the road, like this guy
pulling out between two self-driving cars.
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3823
就像這位仁兄一樣,直接把車輛停在兩輛自動駕駛車之間。
12:24
You have to ask, "What are you thinking?"
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2045
你就會很想問,「你在想些什麼?」
12:26
(Laughter)
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1212
(笑聲)
12:28
Now, I just fire-hosed you
with a lot of stuff there,
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748182
2521
我剛才描述了許多狀況給大家,
12:30
so I'm going to break one of these
down pretty quickly.
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750703
2650
我將用很快的方式
來分析其中一個狀況。
12:33
So what we're looking at is the scene
with the cyclist again,
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2940
我們再回到自行車這個例子,
12:36
and you might notice in the bottom,
we can't actually see the cyclist yet,
272
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3491
可以注意到下方這部分,
我們還無法真正的看到自行車,
12:39
but the car can: it's that little
blue box up there,
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2504
但是車輛可以:
是這個藍色小方框的部分,
12:42
and that comes from the laser data.
274
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2081
這資訊是由雷射所得來的。
12:44
And that's not actually
really easy to understand,
275
764369
2418
確實無法很容易去理解,
12:46
so what I'm going to do is I'm going
to turn that laser data and look at it,
276
766787
3584
我將要做的是轉換雷射資料
然後再來看,
12:50
and if you're really good at looking
at laser data, you can see
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3029
如果你對分析雷射資料很拿手,
你將可以看到
12:53
a few dots on the curve there,
278
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1487
在曲線上面的一些小點,
12:54
right there, and that blue box
is that cyclist.
279
774887
2372
就在這上面,
上面藍色的小方框就是自行車,
12:57
Now as our light is red,
280
777259
1149
這時我們是紅燈,
12:58
the cyclist's light
has turned yellow already,
281
778408
2192
自行車這邊已經轉變為黃燈,
13:00
and if you squint, you can see that
in the imagery.
282
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2438
如果你斜眼看的話,
可以從這張圖案看到。
13:03
But the cyclist, we see, is going
to proceed through the intersection.
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783038
3286
這輛我們所看到的自行車,
將打算穿越這個路口。
13:06
Our light has now turned green,
his is solidly red,
284
786324
2394
我們的燈號已經轉為綠燈,
他的則是紅燈,
13:08
and we now anticipate that this bike
is going to come all the way across.
285
788718
4292
我們預測這輛自行車
將會穿越整個路口。
13:13
Unfortunately the other drivers next to us
were not paying as much attention.
286
793010
3742
不巧的是旁邊的
其他司機並未注意到這點。
13:16
They started to pull forward,
and fortunately for everyone,
287
796752
3157
他們開始往前移動,
不過很幸運的是,
13:19
this cyclists reacts, avoids,
288
799909
3011
自行車反應很快地避開,
13:22
and makes it through the intersection.
289
802920
2191
而且穿越了路口。
13:25
And off we go.
290
805111
1568
結束後我們才往前。
13:26
Now, as you can see, we've made
some pretty exciting progress,
291
806679
2948
就如你所見的,
我們有了一些卓越的進展,
13:29
and at this point we're pretty convinced
292
809627
1902
在這個階段我們很有自信
13:31
this technology is going
to come to market.
293
811529
2010
這個技術是可以上市的。
13:33
We do three million miles of testing
in our simulators every single day,
294
813539
4783
在模擬系統下
我們每天做三百萬哩的測試,
13:38
so you can imagine the experience
that our vehicles have.
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818322
2689
你可以想像我們車輛的豐富經歷。
13:41
We are looking forward to having
this technology on the road,
296
821011
2864
我們正設法把這技術
用於實際道路上,
13:43
and we think the right path
is to go through the self-driving
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2890
我們認為正確的方向
應該是自動駕駛
13:46
rather than driver assistance approach
298
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1844
而不是駕駛輔助系統
13:48
because the urgency is so large.
299
828609
2621
因為有迫切的需求。
13:51
In the time I have given this talk today,
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2393
在我今天演說的同時,
13:53
34 people have died on America's roads.
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有 34 個美國人死於交通事故。
13:56
How soon can we bring it out?
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我們可以多快讓它上市?
13:59
Well, it's hard to say because
it's a really complicated problem,
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嗯,這很難說
因為這是一個很複雜的問題,
14:02
but these are my two boys.
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這是我兩個兒子。
14:05
My oldest son is 11, and that means
in four and a half years,
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大的兒子 11 歲,表示再 4 年半,
14:08
he's going to be able
to get his driver's license.
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他就可以拿到駕照。
14:11
My team and I are committed
to making sure that doesn't happen.
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我跟我的團隊承諾
確保不會讓這件事情發生。
14:14
Thank you.
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謝謝。
14:16
(Laughter) (Applause)
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(笑聲)(掌聲)
14:21
Chris Anderson: Chris,
I've got a question for you.
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克里斯·安德森:
克里斯,我有一個問題。
14:23
Chris Urmson: Sure.
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克里斯·厄姆森:好。
14:26
CA: So certainly, the mind of your cars
is pretty mind-boggling.
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克里斯·安德森:
的確,你車輛的智慧系統讓人驚訝。
14:30
On this debate between
driver-assisted and fully driverless --
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尤其在輔助駕駛與
自動駕駛的辯論中,
14:34
I mean, there's a real debate
going on out there right now.
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現在有一個真實的辯論就存在那邊。
14:37
So some of the companies,
for example, Tesla,
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有一些公司,如:特斯拉,
14:40
are going the driver-assisted route.
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正在研究一些駕駛輔助系統。
14:42
What you're saying is that
that's kind of going to be a dead end
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根據你所說的
這個發展將會是個死胡同
14:48
because you can't just keep improving
that route and get to fully driverless
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因為無法藉由改善輔助系統
最後完全取代自動駕駛
14:53
at some point, and then a driver
is going to say, "This feels safe,"
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在某一點上,駕駛可能會說,
「這感覺到是安全的」,
14:57
and climb into the back,
and something ugly will happen.
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然後爬到後座去,
一些可怕的事情就可能會發生。
14:59
CU: Right. No, that's exactly right,
and it's not to say
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克里斯·厄姆森:
完全正確,現在還無法說
15:02
that the driver assistance systems
aren't going to be incredibly valuable.
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駕駛輔助系統不具有價值。
15:05
They can save a lot of lives
in the interim,
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在這段過渡期間
它們仍可挽救許多生命,
15:08
but to see the transformative opportunity
to help someone like Steve get around,
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但是看到這是一個改變的機會,
可以幫助像史蒂夫一樣的人,
15:11
to really get to the end case in safety,
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而且最終是個安全的方案,
15:13
to have the opportunity
to change our cities
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去擁有這機會去改變我們的城市
15:16
and move parking out and get rid of
these urban craters we call parking lots,
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可以擺脫城市裡一個個的停車場,
15:20
it's the only way to go.
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這是唯一的辦法。
15:21
CA: We will be tracking your progress
with huge interest.
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克里斯·安德森:
我們非常有興趣持續追蹤你的進度
15:24
Thanks so much, Chris.
CU: Thank you. (Applause)
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謝謝你,克里斯。
克里斯·厄姆森:謝謝。(掌聲)
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