What we miss when we focus on the average | Am I Normal? with Mona Chalabi

Transcriber:

When we think about data, we usually think about averages.

翻译人员: yuanyuan min 校对人员: Yip Yan Yeung

当我们想到数据时， 通常我们想到的是平均值。

Average height, average salary,

平均高度、平均薪资、

average number of hours spent on video calls.

花在视频电话的平均时长，

It’s tempting to focus on these neat little summaries of our world.

我们不由自主地关注 这些精简整齐的总结。

But the world is a lot messier than these averages can make it out to be.

但是世界比这些平均值 表现出来的混杂得多。

So instead, I look for the outliers.

所以相反，我更关心异常值。

They can offer a better reflection of this chaos we call life.

它们能更好地反映这些 构成我们生活的杂乱，

And they can offer a different perspective

同时也能为我们 提供一个不同的视角

on the things that we think we understand.

去看那些我们认为 已经理解的事物。

[Am I Normal? with Mona Chalabi]

[我正常吗？来自莫娜·沙拉比]

Take, for instance, the stats around teens and cigarettes.

拿相关青少年和 香烟的数据来举例，

According to the CDC, between 1997 and 2019,

根据美国疾病控制 与预防中心（CDC），

1997 至 2019 年间

the percentage of American high school students who smoked plummeted

美国高中生抽烟的百分比

from 36 to just six percent.

从 36% 直降至仅有 6%。

That seems like a pretty big win,

这看起来是一个巨大的成功，

but when you break apart the data and look at the outliers,

但是当你把数据拆解开来 并关注其中的异常值，

it is a totally different picture.

反映出的情况就完全不同了。

Among American Indian and native Alaskan students,

在印第安人和阿拉斯加 原住民学生之间，

cigarette usage is much higher than that six percent average.

烟草消耗比 6% 高得多，

It comes in at a sizable 21 percent.

达到了相当高的 21%。

All other racial and ethnic groups were in the single digits.

除此之外其他的种族和族群 百分比都在个位数。

So what first seemed like this great success story

所以一眼看去像是一个 相当成功的案例，

is actually an indicator of how much work we need to do

实际上它指出了 我们还有许多待做的事

to reach some of the most marginalized communities.

来接触到那些最被边缘化的社群。

In general, when we present data as a scatterplot,

总而言之，如果我们 以散点图的形式呈现数据，

the average would usually look like this.

平均值一般会像这样。

And where there are outliers,

对于存在的异常值，

the typical approach is to undervalue them,

一般处理方法都是 尽可能忽略它们，

to see them as a deviation from the average

将它们看作偏离平均值的误差

or from what society thinks is normal.

或是社会认为正常值的误差。

But I like to call these outliers “lost birds.”

但我想称这些异常值 为“离群的鸟”，

It's a nickname I use for something or someone who has gone astray.

这是我对迷失的事物或人的昵称。

If you look hard enough,

如果你仔细观察，

you'll find that these lost birds pop up everywhere.

你会发现这些离群的鸟无处不在。

Like my mom, for example.

举个例子，就像我妈妈，

She doesn't like being on camera, so this puppet will have to do.

她不愿意上镜， 所以这个木偶代表她。

She's a soft spoken, hijabi woman who isn't much bigger than this puppet.

她是一位说话温和、带头巾的 妇女，比这个木偶大不了多少。

Because of that, it's easy for some people to underestimate her.

因此，很容易会让有些人低估她。

But don't let those first impressions fool you.

但是别被这些第一印象所迷惑，

“In my generation,

“在我那个年代，

we used to listen and accept what they tell us.

我们曾经听从别人所说的话。

'Do what you're told.'

‘照吩咐的那样做。’

But when I got older,

但当我长大一些，

I just changed and I started to argue my point and get what I want."

我变得开始去争论并且 争取我想要的东西。

My mom's a retired doctor, an avid ugly-dress maker,

我妈是一名退休医生， 一名狂热的丑陋衣物制造者，

a mother of two and a grandmother of none.

两个孩子的妈以及 没有孙子的奶奶。

Though she spends a fair amount of time trying to speak that into existence,

尽管她花费相当多的时间 试图把这种说法变成真的，

"I think for every mother, for her daughter, she wants a grandchild."

“我想每个妈妈为了她的女儿 都想要一个孙子。”

(Laughter)

（笑声）

"Sorry, Mona."

“抱歉，莫娜。”

Moving on.

继续说。

My mom is also a lost bird.

我妈也是一只“离散的鸟”

"Me?"

“我？”

She has, statistically speaking, gone astray.

统计学上来说，她已经走远了。

"Yeah, but it was a good deviation."

“没错，但是一个不错的误差。”

Back in the late '70s,

回到 70 年代末，

my mom left Iraq and moved to the UK

我妈妈从伊拉克搬去英国，

to further her medical training and practice.

继续她的医疗实践培训。

She's among the four percent of people born in Iraq who now live abroad.

她是 4% 出生在伊拉克 但现在生活在海外的人之一。

By the early 2000s,

到 21 世纪初，

just three percent of UK doctors with her experience

仅有 3% 的英国医生 拥有她同等的经验，

were non-white and practicing in her speciality.

他们是非白种人 并且从事着她的专业。

My mom is a lost bird because she is an outlier.

我妈是一只“离散的鸟”， 因为她是一个异常值。

She's one of the rare few to leave her home country

她是极少数离开自己祖国的人，

and even rarer still among her medical peers.

在她的医学同僚中甚至更少见。

We all think that the people that we love are special,

我们都认为我们 所爱的人是特别的，

and there is some truth to that.

这是有道理的。

But it’s worth considering the ways that we are all lost birds.

但这是值得考虑的， 我们都是“离散的鸟”

Because when we focus on the average and we ignore the outliers,

因为当我们关注平均值 而忽略异常值时，

we lose all of the richness and insights that those stories provide.

我们失去了这些故事 所提供的一切丰富性和洞察力，

But when we dig into the deviations, we get to see the bigger picture.

然而当我们挖掘这些误差时， 我们可以看到更广阔的景象。

One from a bird's-eye view.

从鸟瞰的角度看。