What we miss when we focus on the average | Am I Normal? with Mona Chalabi

98,361 views ・ 2021-11-02

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Transcriber:
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When we think about data, we usually think about averages.
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翻译人员: yuanyuan min 校对人员: Yip Yan Yeung
当我们想到数据时, 通常我们想到的是平均值。
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Average height, average salary,
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平均高度、平均薪资、
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average number of hours spent on video calls.
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花在视频电话的平均时长,
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It’s tempting to focus on these neat little summaries of our world.
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我们不由自主地关注 这些精简整齐的总结。
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But the world is a lot messier than these averages can make it out to be.
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但是世界比这些平均值 表现出来的混杂得多。
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So instead, I look for the outliers.
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所以相反,我更关心异常值。
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They can offer a better reflection of this chaos we call life.
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它们能更好地反映这些 构成我们生活的杂乱,
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And they can offer a different perspective
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同时也能为我们 提供一个不同的视角
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on the things that we think we understand.
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去看那些我们认为 已经理解的事物。
00:25
[Am I Normal? with Mona Chalabi]
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[我正常吗?来自莫娜·沙拉比]
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Take, for instance, the stats around teens and cigarettes.
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拿相关青少年和 香烟的数据来举例,
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According to the CDC, between 1997 and 2019,
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根据美国疾病控制 与预防中心(CDC),
1997 至 2019 年间
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the percentage of American high school students who smoked plummeted
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美国高中生抽烟的百分比
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from 36 to just six percent.
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从 36% 直降至仅有 6%。
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That seems like a pretty big win,
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这看起来是一个巨大的成功,
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but when you break apart the data and look at the outliers,
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但是当你把数据拆解开来 并关注其中的异常值,
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it is a totally different picture.
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反映出的情况就完全不同了。
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Among American Indian and native Alaskan students,
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在印第安人和阿拉斯加 原住民学生之间,
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cigarette usage is much higher than that six percent average.
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烟草消耗比 6% 高得多,
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It comes in at a sizable 21 percent.
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达到了相当高的 21%。
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All other racial and ethnic groups were in the single digits.
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除此之外其他的种族和族群 百分比都在个位数。
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So what first seemed like this great success story
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所以一眼看去像是一个 相当成功的案例,
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is actually an indicator of how much work we need to do
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实际上它指出了 我们还有许多待做的事
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to reach some of the most marginalized communities.
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来接触到那些最被边缘化的社群。
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In general, when we present data as a scatterplot,
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总而言之,如果我们 以散点图的形式呈现数据,
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the average would usually look like this.
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平均值一般会像这样。
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And where there are outliers,
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对于存在的异常值,
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the typical approach is to undervalue them,
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一般处理方法都是 尽可能忽略它们,
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to see them as a deviation from the average
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将它们看作偏离平均值的误差
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or from what society thinks is normal.
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或是社会认为正常值的误差。
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But I like to call these outliers “lost birds.”
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但我想称这些异常值 为“离群的鸟”,
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It's a nickname I use for something or someone who has gone astray.
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这是我对迷失的事物或人的昵称。
01:27
If you look hard enough,
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如果你仔细观察,
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you'll find that these lost birds pop up everywhere.
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你会发现这些离群的鸟无处不在。
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Like my mom, for example.
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举个例子,就像我妈妈,
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She doesn't like being on camera, so this puppet will have to do.
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她不愿意上镜, 所以这个木偶代表她。
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She's a soft spoken, hijabi woman who isn't much bigger than this puppet.
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她是一位说话温和、带头巾的 妇女,比这个木偶大不了多少。
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Because of that, it's easy for some people to underestimate her.
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因此,很容易会让有些人低估她。
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But don't let those first impressions fool you.
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但是别被这些第一印象所迷惑,
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“In my generation,
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“在我那个年代,
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we used to listen and accept what they tell us.
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我们曾经听从别人所说的话。
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'Do what you're told.'
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‘照吩咐的那样做。’
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But when I got older,
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但当我长大一些,
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I just changed and I started to argue my point and get what I want."
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我变得开始去争论并且 争取我想要的东西。
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My mom's a retired doctor, an avid ugly-dress maker,
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我妈是一名退休医生, 一名狂热的丑陋衣物制造者,
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a mother of two and a grandmother of none.
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两个孩子的妈以及 没有孙子的奶奶。
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Though she spends a fair amount of time trying to speak that into existence,
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尽管她花费相当多的时间 试图把这种说法变成真的,
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"I think for every mother, for her daughter, she wants a grandchild."
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“我想每个妈妈为了她的女儿 都想要一个孙子。”
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(Laughter)
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(笑声)
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"Sorry, Mona."
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“抱歉,莫娜。”
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Moving on.
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继续说。
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My mom is also a lost bird.
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我妈也是一只“离散的鸟”
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"Me?"
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“我?”
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She has, statistically speaking, gone astray.
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统计学上来说,她已经走远了。
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"Yeah, but it was a good deviation."
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“没错,但是一个不错的误差。”
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Back in the late '70s,
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回到 70 年代末,
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my mom left Iraq and moved to the UK
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我妈妈从伊拉克搬去英国,
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to further her medical training and practice.
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继续她的医疗实践培训。
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She's among the four percent of people born in Iraq who now live abroad.
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她是 4% 出生在伊拉克 但现在生活在海外的人之一。
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By the early 2000s,
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到 21 世纪初,
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just three percent of UK doctors with her experience
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仅有 3% 的英国医生 拥有她同等的经验,
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were non-white and practicing in her speciality.
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他们是非白种人 并且从事着她的专业。
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My mom is a lost bird because she is an outlier.
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我妈是一只“离散的鸟”, 因为她是一个异常值。
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She's one of the rare few to leave her home country
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她是极少数离开自己祖国的人,
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and even rarer still among her medical peers.
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在她的医学同僚中甚至更少见。
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We all think that the people that we love are special,
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我们都认为我们 所爱的人是特别的,
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and there is some truth to that.
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这是有道理的。
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But it’s worth considering the ways that we are all lost birds.
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但这是值得考虑的, 我们都是“离散的鸟”
02:59
Because when we focus on the average and we ignore the outliers,
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因为当我们关注平均值 而忽略异常值时,
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we lose all of the richness and insights that those stories provide.
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我们失去了这些故事 所提供的一切丰富性和洞察力,
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But when we dig into the deviations, we get to see the bigger picture.
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然而当我们挖掘这些误差时, 我们可以看到更广阔的景象。
03:09
One from a bird's-eye view.
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从鸟瞰的角度看。
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