John Doerr: Seeking salvation and profit in greentech

80,324 views ・ 2007-05-30

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翻译人员: elyse lin 校对人员: Angelia King
00:25
I'm really scared. I don't think we're going to make it.
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我真的很害怕,我觉得我们改变不了环境现状。
00:32
Probably by now most of you have seen Al Gore's amazing talk.
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你们大部分人应该都听过阿尔·戈尔那个著名的演讲吧。
00:36
Shortly after I saw that, we had some friends over for dinner
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我刚听完那个演讲,就来了一些朋友,与我们一家共进晚餐,
00:40
with the family. The conversation turned to global warming,
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其间我们谈到全球变暖,
00:44
and everybody agreed, there's a real problem.
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大家都认为这确实是个问题。
00:48
We've got a climate crisis.
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我们正面对气候危机。
00:50
So, we went around the table to talk about what we should do.
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因此,我们围坐在桌旁,讨论我们应该做什么。
00:55
The conversation came to my 15-year-old daughter, Mary.
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我15岁的女儿Mary听到了我们的谈话。
01:00
She said, "I agree with everything that's been said.
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她说:“我赞成你们所说的。”
01:05
I'm scared and I'm angry." And then she turned to me and said,
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然后她又对我说:“我很害怕也很生气
01:10
"Dad, your generation created this problem; you'd better fix it." Wow.
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爸爸,气候变暖是你们这代人造成的,你们应该想办法解决。”
01:18
All the conversation stopped. All the eyes turned to me.
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屋子里一下安静下来,所有人都看着我。
01:22
(Laughter)
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(笑声)
01:27
I didn't know what to say. Kleiner's second law is,
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我哑口无言。根据克莱纳·伯金斯Kleiner(美国著名风险投资公司)第二条法则
01:32
"There is a time when panic is the appropriate response."
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“有时候惊慌失措才是最恰当的反应”
01:36
(Laughter)
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(笑声)
01:37
And we've reached that time. We cannot afford to underestimate
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我们也已经到了惊慌失措的时候,我们不能低估
01:43
this problem. If we face irreversible and catastrophic consequences,
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这个问题。如果它导致的后果是不可逆转的,灾难性的,
01:51
we must act, and we must act decisively.
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那么我们必须行动起来,坚决果断地行动起来。
01:54
I've got to tell you, for me, everything changed that evening.
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说实话,那个晚上改变了一切。
01:58
And so, my partners and I, we set off on this mission to learn more,
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之后,我和我的合伙人开始一起探究这方面的问题,
02:02
to try to do much more. So, we mobilized. We got on airplanes.
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一起努力改变现况。我们做动员工作。我们登上飞机
02:06
We went to Brazil. We went to China and to India,
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飞到巴西,中国还有印度,
02:09
to Bentonville, Arkansas, to Washington, D.C. and to Sacramento.
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飞到本顿维尔,阿肯色州,华盛顿还有萨克拉门托。
02:14
And so, what I'd like to do now is to tell you
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现在,我想告诉你们的是
02:17
about what we've learned in those journeys.
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我们在旅途中的所见所闻。
02:20
Because the more we learned, the more concerned we grew.
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看得越多,我们就越担心。
02:23
You know, my partners at Kleiner and I were compulsive networkers,
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我克莱纳·伯金斯Kleiner的合伙人跟我一样,都致力于公共关系网络的拓展。
02:25
and so when we see a big problem or an opportunity
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当发现一个难题或者一个机会,
02:28
like avian flu or personalized medicine,
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例如禽流感或个体化用药,
02:31
we just get together the smartest people we know.
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我们就会找来一些我们认识的最聪明的专家老手。
02:34
For this climate crisis, we assembled a network, really,
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对于气候危机,我们同样也构建了一个联系网,
02:38
of superstars, from policy activists to scientists and entrepreneurs
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网罗各界精英,有来自政界的,也有科学家以及企业家,
02:43
and business leaders. Fifty or so of them.
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还有商界领袖。总共大概50个人。
02:45
And so, I want to tell you about what we've learned in doing that
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接下来我要告诉你们通过网罗这些精英,我们有什么成果,
02:49
and four lessons I've learned in the last year.
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以及去年我学到的四样东西。
02:52
The first lesson is that companies are really powerful,
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首先,我认识到企业的力量是很强大的
02:56
and that matters a lot. This is a story about
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这点意义非凡。有个故事
02:59
how Wal-Mart went green, and what that means.
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关于沃尔玛支持环保及其意义的故事。
03:02
Two years ago, the CEO, Lee Scott, believed that green is
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两年前,沃尔玛的首席执行官Lee Scott坚信环保
03:07
the next big thing, and so Wal-Mart made going green a top priority.
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将是大势所趋。因此,沃尔玛把环保作为首要任务。
03:13
They committed that they're going to take their existing stores
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他们承诺,将旗下已开门店
03:15
and reduce their energy consumption by 20 percent,
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的能耗降低20%,
03:18
and their new stores by 30 percent, and do all that in seven years.
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新开门店的能耗降低30%,用7年时间来达成这个目标。
03:24
The three biggest uses of energy in a store are heating
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门店中最耗能的三个项目分别是供暖空调,
03:27
and air conditioning, then lighting, and then refrigeration.
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以及照明和制冷。
03:31
So, look what they did.
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让我们看看沃尔玛是怎么做的。
03:33
They painted the roofs of all their stores white.
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他们将门店的屋顶刷成白色。
03:36
They put smart skylights through their stores
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在门店里安装天窗,
03:38
so they could harvest the daylight and reduce the lighting demands.
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这样就能够接收到光照,减少照明需求。
03:42
And, third, they put the refrigerated goods
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另外,他们将冷冻食品
03:44
behind closed doors with LED lighting.
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摆在关闭的门背后,用LED照明节能。
03:47
I mean, why would you try to refrigerate a whole store?
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你们说有什么必要对整个门店制冷?
03:50
These are really simple, smart solutions based on existing technology.
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道理其实很简单,用现有科技巧妙节能。
03:55
Why does Wal-Mart matter? Well, it's massive.
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为什么例举沃尔玛这个例子?因为它意义非凡。
03:58
They're the largest private employer in America.
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沃尔玛是美国最大的民营企业雇主,
04:01
They're the largest private user of electricity.
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用电大户,
04:03
They have the second-largest vehicle fleet on the road.
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拥有全美第二多的车队。
04:07
And they have one of the world's most amazing supply chains,
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另外,它有世界上最惊人的供应链之一,
04:10
60,000 suppliers. If Wal-Mart were a country,
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包括六万个供应商。如果沃尔玛是一个国家,
04:14
it would be the sixth-largest trading partner with China.
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它将是中国第六大贸易伙伴。
04:17
And maybe most important, they have a big effect on other companies.
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最关键的是,沃尔玛对其他公司有很大影响。
04:22
When Wal-Mart declares it's going to go green and be profitable,
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当它宣布将致力于降耗环保并且仍然保持盈利,
04:27
it has a powerful impact on other great institutions.
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这对其他大机构产生了很大的影响。
04:30
So, let me tell you this:
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让我来告诉你们:
04:31
when Wal-Mart achieves 20 percent energy reductions,
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沃尔玛降低20%能耗
04:34
that's going to be a very big deal. But I'm afraid it's not enough.
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意义重大。但我认为这还不够。
04:40
We need Wal-Mart and every other company to do the same.
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我们需要沃尔玛以及其他公司共同致力于降耗环保。
04:45
The second thing that we learned is that individuals matter,
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第二,我们意识到个人的作用也不可或缺
04:48
and they matter enormously.
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而且相当重要。
04:51
I've got another Wal-Mart story for you, OK?
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现在我要讲另一个关于沃尔玛的故事。
04:53
Wal-Mart has over 125 million U.S. customers.
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沃尔玛拥有一亿两千五百多万美国顾客。
04:56
That's a third of the U.S. population.
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这个数目相当于全美人口的三分之一。
05:00
65 million compact fluorescent light bulbs were sold last year.
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去年沃尔玛售出6500万复合荧光灯泡,
05:05
And Wal-Mart has committed they're going to sell
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同时它承诺还将售出
05:08
another 100 million light bulbs in the coming year. But it's not easy.
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100万灯泡,这要在下一年内完成,这并不简单。
05:13
Consumers don't really like these light bulbs.
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顾客实际上并不喜欢用这种灯泡。
05:15
The light's kind of funny, they won't dim,
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这种灯泡蛮有意思的,它的光模糊,
05:17
takes a while for them to start up.
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需要一段时间才慢慢亮起来。
05:19
But the pay-off is really enormous.
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不过回报率超高,
05:22
100 million compact fluorescent light bulbs means
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100万复合荧光灯泡意味着
05:25
that we'll save 600 million dollars in energy bills,
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每年能源上的花费能节约600万美元,
05:29
and 20 million tons of CO2 every year, year in and year out.
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二氧化碳排放量能够减少2千万吨,年年如此,就很了不得。
05:36
It does seem really hard to get consumers to do the right thing.
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但要顾客都作出正确的选择来支持节能似乎比较困难。
05:40
It is stupid that we use two tons of steel, glass and plastic
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我们用两吨钢材,玻璃以及塑料
05:45
to haul our sorry selves to the shopping mall.
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将自己送到超市,这实在是愚蠢的行为。
05:49
It's stupid that we put water in plastic bottles
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我们用塑料瓶子装水
05:52
in Fiji and ship it here.
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并且这是在斐济完成的,然后再运到这儿来,也是个愚蠢的行为。
05:56
(Laughter)
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(笑声)
05:58
It's hard to change consumer behavior
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顾客行为是很难改变的,
06:00
because consumers don't know how much this stuff costs. Do you know?
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因为顾客并不知道这么做所造成的后果,你们知道吗?
06:05
Do you know how much CO2 you generated to drive here or fly here?
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你知道你开车过来或者乘飞机过来产生了多少二氧化碳吗?
06:10
I don't know, and I should.
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我不知道,但我最好知道。
06:13
Those of us who care about all this would act better
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那些关注环保的人就会注意他们的行为,选择更有利于环境的方式,
06:15
if we knew what the real costs were.
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如果知道各种行为所需的环境代价。
06:18
But as long as we pretend that CO2 is free,
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但只要我们认为二氧化碳是免费的,
06:21
as long as these uses are nearly invisible, how can we expect change?
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我们各种行为所产生的二氧化碳是不可见的,我们又怎么想要去改变现状?
06:26
I'm really afraid, because I think the kinds of changes
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我真的很担心,因为我觉得
06:30
we can reasonably expect from individuals
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仅仅个别人致力于各种节能改变
06:33
are going to be clearly not enough.
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还远远不够。
06:38
The third lesson we learned is that policy matters. It really matters.
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我所领悟到的第三点,政策意义重大。
06:41
In fact, policy is paramount.
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事实上,政策是最重要的。
06:44
I've got a behind-the-scenes story for you
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让我告诉你们一个幕后故事吧,
06:46
about that green tech network I described.
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关于我说过的绿色科技网络的故事。
06:47
At the end of our first meeting, we got together to talk about
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在我们联系网成员的第一次会议上,我们讨论了
06:50
what the action items would be, how we'd follow up.
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针对什么样的行为应该怎么跟进。
06:54
And Bob Epstein raised a hand. He stood up.
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Bob Epstein举手,并站起来。
06:58
You know, Bob's that Berkeley techie type who started Sybase.
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Bob是伯克利的电脑高手,自己开了家公司,叫sybase。
07:01
Well, Bob said the most important thing we could do right now
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Bob认为我们现在要做的最重要的事
07:05
is to make it clear in Sacramento, California
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就是弄清在加利福尼亚州的萨克拉门托
07:09
that we need a market-based system of mandates
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我们需要一个绿色市场为基础导向系统
07:12
that's going to cap and reduce greenhouse gases in California.
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用来限制、减少该州的温室气体排放。
07:17
It's necessary and, just as important,
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这是非常必要且重要的,
07:20
it's good for the California economy.
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对加利福尼亚经济有益。
07:22
So, eight of us went to Sacramento in August and we met
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因此,我们一行八人8月份去萨克拉门托,会见
07:25
with the seven undecided legislators and we lobbied for AB32.
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七位立法者,他们当时还未决定,我们游说他们通过AB32议案。
07:30
You know what? Six of those seven voted yes in favor of the bill,
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你们知道吗,他们当中六位同意通过这项议案,
07:33
so it passed, and it passed by a vote of 47 to 32.
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于是AB32通过了,以47人同意32人反对的投票结果通过了。
07:39
(Applause)
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(掌声)
07:42
Please. Thank you.
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谢谢。
07:46
I think it's the most important legislation of 2006. Why?
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我认为这是2006年最重要的一部法规,为什么这么说呢?
07:47
Because California was the first state in this country
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因为加利福尼亚是美国第一个
07:51
to mandate 25 percent reduction of greenhouse gases by 2020.
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强制执行在2020年时减少25%温室气体排放的州。
07:55
And the result of that is, we're going to generate 83,000 new jobs,
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这么做能创造8万3千个新的工作岗位,
08:00
four billion dollars a year in annual income, and reduce the CO2 emissions
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年收入增加40亿美元,同时二氧化碳排放量
08:04
by 174 million tons a year.
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一年减少1. 74亿吨。
08:09
California emits only seven percent of U.S. CO2 emissions.
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加利福尼亚的二氧化碳排放量仅占全美的7%,
08:14
It's only a percent and a half of the country's CO2 emissions. It's a great start,
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强制减排后,这个数字变为1.5%。这是个良好的开端。
08:17
but I've got to tell you -- where I started -- I'm really afraid.
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但我要说的是,我迈出的这一步,我非常担心,
08:22
In fact, I'm certain California's not enough.
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事实上,加利福尼亚这么做还不够。
08:26
Here's a story about national policy that we could all learn from.
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这里有个关于国家政策的故事,我想我们都能从中学到点东西。
08:30
You know Tom Friedman says, "If you don't go, you don't know"?
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汤姆 弗里德曼Tom Friedman(《世界是平的》作者)说过“如果你不付诸行动,那么你永远不会发现真相”。
08:33
Well, we went to Brazil to meet Dr. Jose Goldemberg.
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于是我们前往巴西拜访Jose Goldemberg博士,
08:37
He's the father of the ethanol revolution.
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他是乙醇革命之父。
08:40
He told us that Brazil's government mandated
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他告诉我们巴西政府强制要求,
08:43
that every gasoline station in the country would carry ethanol.
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全国所有加油站都必须安装乙醇加油泵,
08:47
And they mandated that their new vehicles
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并且新投产的汽车都必须
08:50
would be flex-fuel compatible, right?
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是智能燃料兼容型的,
08:52
They'd run ethanol or ordinary gasoline.
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能够使用乙醇或者传统燃料,
08:55
And so, here's what's happened in Brazil.
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这就是我们在巴西所见到的。
08:57
They now have 29,000 ethanol pumps --
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巴西现拥有2万9千个乙醇加油泵,
09:00
this versus 700 in the U.S., and a paltry two in California --
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相比较巴西,美国有700个,其中加利福尼亚仅仅有2个,
09:04
and in three years their new car fleet
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在未来三年内,巴西新增车辆中
09:06
has gone from four percent to 85 percent flex-fuel.
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拥有智能燃料发动机的车辆将从4%增加到85%。
09:11
Compare that to the U.S.: five percent are flex-fuel.
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相比之下,美国仅有5%智能燃料型汽车,
09:14
And you know what? Most consumers who have them don't even know it.
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而大部分这种车的所有者竟然不知道他们的爱车是智能燃料型的。
09:19
So, what's happened in Brazil is, they've replaced
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巴西已经将
09:22
40 percent of the gasoline consumed by their automotive fleet with ethanol.
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汽车所使用汽油的40%替换为乙醇。
09:26
That's 59 billion dollars since 1975
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从1975年启动乙醇燃料发展计划以来,巴西已经在燃料方面省下了590亿美元,
09:30
that they didn't ship to the Middle East.
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他们不用从中东运石油过来。
09:32
It's created a million jobs inside that country,
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同时这也创造了100万工作岗位,
09:35
and it's saved 32 million tons of CO2. It's really substantial.
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减少了3200万吨二氧化碳,这是非常大的数目。
09:39
That's 10 percent of the CO2 emissions across their entire country.
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相当于巴西全国上下二氧化碳排放量的10%。
09:43
But Brazil's only 1.3 percent of the world's CO2 emission.
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但巴西所排放的二氧化碳仅占全球的1.3%,
09:47
So, Brazil's ethanol miracle, I'm really afraid, is not enough.
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因此,我想巴西的乙醇奇迹还远远不够。
09:54
In fact, I'm afraid all of the best policies we have
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事实上,我认为目前我们所有最好的政策
09:57
are not going to be enough.
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也不够。
10:01
The fourth and final lesson we've learned
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我们领悟到的第四点即最后一点
10:03
is about the potential of radical innovation.
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是有关突破性创新的潜力。
10:05
So, I want to tell you about a tragic problem
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我要告诉你们一个悲剧
10:07
and a breakthrough technology.
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和一个突破性技术。
10:09
Every year a million and a half people die of
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每年有150万人死于
10:12
a completely preventable disease. That's malaria. 6,000 people a day.
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一种完全能够避免的疾病,即疟疾,它导致每天6000人死亡,
10:17
All for want of two dollars' worth of medications
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我们在街角药店就能买到的2美元药就可以挽救他们
10:19
that we can buy at the corner drugstore.
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的生命,
10:21
Well, two dollars, two dollars is too much for Africa.
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但是2美元对非洲来说已经算是一大笔钱了。
10:25
So, a team of Berkeley researchers with 15 million dollars
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一些来自伯克利的研究者们用
10:29
from the Gates Foundation is engineering, designing a radical new way
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盖茨基金会贡献的1500万美元,试设计一种突破性的新方法。
10:35
to make the key ingredient, called artemisinin,
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来生产上述药物的主要成分,即青蒿素。
10:39
and they're going to make that drug 10 times cheaper.
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他们也致力于降低成本,使药物售价比原来便宜10倍。
10:41
And in doing so, they'll save a million lives --
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通过他们的努力,100万人因此获救,
10:44
at least a million lives a year. A million lives.
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至少一年100万人,100万个生命。
10:47
Their breakthrough technology is synthetic biology.
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他们的突破性技术叫做合成生物学,
10:51
This leverages millions of years of evolution
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它影响了数百万年的进化系统,
10:53
by redesigning bugs to make really useful products.
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通过重新设计药物,修复其缺陷,使得药物能真正起到作用。
10:56
Now, what you do is, you get inside the microbe,
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然后你所要做的就是观察微生物,
10:59
you change its metabolic pathways, and you end up with a living chemical factory.
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改变它的代谢方式,从而变成一个鲜活的化工厂,产生我们所需的青蒿素。
11:04
Now, you may ask,
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你们可能有疑问,
11:06
John, what has this got to go with green and with climate crisis?
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这跟绿色科技,气候危机有什么关系?
11:09
Well, I'll tell you -- a lot.
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我会向你们一一道来。
11:11
We've now formed a company called Amyris, and this technology
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我和我的合伙人共同创立了一家公司,Amyris。前面谈到的技术
11:15
that they're using can be used to make better biofuels.
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能够用来生产更好的生物燃料。
11:19
Don't let me skip over that. Better biofuels are a really big deal.
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这个我必须要说。这项应用意义重大,
11:23
That means we can precisely engineer the molecules in the fuel chain
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它使得我们能够在燃料链中精确地制造分子,
11:27
and optimize them along the way.
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并且是边制造边优化分子。
11:30
So, if all goes well, they're going to have designer bugs in warm vats
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如果一切进展顺利,微生物将在温暖的大缸环境中生成我们所需的特定菌类。
11:35
that are eating and digesting sugars to excrete better biofuels.
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这些菌能够吞食并消化糖分,然后分泌出更好的生物燃料。
11:42
I guess that's better living through bugs.
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我想这些菌将为我们创造更加美好的生活。
11:46
Alan Kay is famous for saying
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Alan Kay(图形用户界面之父)有句名言,
11:48
the best way to predict the future is to invent it.
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预测未来的最好方式就是自己动手创造。
11:50
And, of course, at Kleiner we, kind of, apologize and say
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在克莱纳·伯金斯Kleiner,我们遗憾地告诉大家,
11:53
the second best way is to finance it.
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我们第二好方法就是注资。
11:55
And that's why we're investing 200 million dollars
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这就是我们投资2亿美元
11:59
in a wide range of really disruptive new technologies
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在许多颠覆性新技术方面的原因,
12:02
for innovation in green technologies.
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这些技术都是绿色科技的创新。
12:04
And we're encouraging others to do it as well.
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同时我们也鼓励其他人参与进来,共同投资。
12:06
We're talking a lot about this.
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我们所讨论的都是这方面的话题。
12:08
In 2005, there were 600 million dollars invested in new technologies
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2005年,有6亿美元投资于
12:13
of the sort you see here. It doubled in 2006 to 1.2 billion dollars.
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有关绿色科技的新技术。2006年这方面的投资增加了一倍,达到12亿美元,
12:18
But I'm really afraid we need much, much more.
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但我想我们还需要更多的支持和投资。
12:24
For reference, fact one:
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有以下事实供参考,例一:
12:25
Exxon's revenues in 2005 were a billion dollars a day.
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2005年埃克森石油公司日收入10亿美元。
12:28
Do you know, they only invested 0.2 percent of revenues in R&D?
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你们知道他们在研发方面的支出仅占日收入的0.2%吗?
12:32
Second fact: the President's new budget for renewable energy
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例二:总统先生对可再生能源所拨预算
12:36
is barely a billion dollars in total.
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仅仅有10亿美元,
12:39
Less than one day of Exxon's revenues.
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还不及埃克森日收入。
12:42
Third fact: I bet you didn't know that there's enough energy
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例三:我打赌你们不知道
12:45
in hot rocks under the country to supply America's energy needs
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美国地下热岩里有足够的能源,能满足全国上下
12:50
for the next thousand years. And the federal budget
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未来一千年的能量需求。但我们的联邦预算
12:54
calls for a measly 20 million dollars of R&D in geothermal energy.
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仅拨了区区2000万美元用于地热能源的研发。
12:59
It is almost criminal that we are not investing more
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我们不多加投资这个国家能源开发,这简直就是种罪过
13:02
in energy research in this country.
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13:05
And I am really afraid that it's absolutely not enough.
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我认为投资力度绝对不够。
13:10
So, in a year's worth of learning we found a bunch of surprises.
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这一年的深入调研是值得的,我们发现了许多惊喜的东西。
13:13
Who would have thought that a mass retailer
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谁会想到零售巨头
13:15
could make money by going green? Who would have thought that
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通过节约能源来赚钱?谁会想到
13:17
a database entrepreneur could transform California with legislation?
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数据库企业家通过立法来带动加利福尼亚环保?
13:21
Who would have thought that the ethanol biofuel miracle
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谁会想到乙醇生物燃料这个奇迹
13:25
would come from a developing country in South America?
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竟来自一个南美的发展中国家?
13:28
And who would have thought that scientists
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谁会想到科学家们
13:30
trying to cure malaria could come up with breakthroughs in biofuels?
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治疗疟疾的技术能够使生物燃料研发取得突破?
13:35
And who would have thought that all that is not enough?
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谁又会想到这些都还不够?
13:40
Not enough to stabilize the climate.
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不足以稳定气候,
13:42
Not enough to keep the ice in Greenland from crashing into the ocean.
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不足以预防格陵兰岛上的冰融入大海。
13:46
The scientists tell us -- and they're only guessing --
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科学家告诉我们,他们也只是认为,
13:48
that we've got to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by one half,
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我们应该将温室气体排放量降低一半,
13:52
and do it as fast as possible.
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并且应该马上行动。
13:53
Now, we may have the political will to do this in the U.S.,
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现在美国政界也许会支持环保,
13:56
but I've got to tell you, we've got only one atmosphere,
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但我要告诉你们的是,我们只有一个大气层,
14:00
and so somehow we're going to have to find the political will
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因此我们必须寻求政治上的帮助,
14:02
to do this all around the world. The wild card in this deck is China.
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让全球都行动起来支持环保节能。但中国立场让人费解。
14:09
To size the problem, China's CO2 emissions today are 3.3 gigatons;
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情况大致是这样的,中国现在的二氧化碳排放量为3.3亿吨,
14:15
the U.S. is 5.8. Business as usual means
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美国是5.8亿吨。照目前的情况发展
14:19
we'll have 23 gigatons from China by 2050.
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到2050年,中国的二氧化碳排放量将达到23亿吨。
14:22
That's about as much CO2 as there is in the whole world.
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这相当于现在全球所排放的二氧化碳总量。
14:25
And if it's business as usual, we're going out of business.
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如果我们放任目前的情况发展,那么总有一天所有生产活动都不得不停止。
14:28
When I was in Davos, China's Mayor of Dalian was pressed
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我参加达沃斯论坛时,大连市市长曾向媒体透露过,
14:31
about their CO2 strategy, and he said the following,
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他们有关二氧化碳排放的战略,以下就是他的原话
14:34
"You know, Americans use seven times the CO2 per capita as Chinese."
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“美国人均二氧化碳排放量是中国人均的7倍”
14:39
Then he asked, "Why should China sacrifice our growth
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然后他问:“为什么要中国以自身发展为代价
14:43
so that the West can continue to be profligate and stupid?"
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来实现西方国家愚蠢的挥霍行为?”
14:47
Does anybody here have an answer for him? I don't.
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你们能回答他的这个问题吗?我无法回答。
14:52
We've got to make this economic so that all people and all nations
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我们一定要让绿色科技具有经济可行性,从而使所有人所有国家
14:59
make the right outcome, the profitable outcome,
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基于此的生产活动都是有利可图的,
15:01
and therefore the likely outcome.
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都是可以实现的。
15:03
Energy's a six-trillion-dollar business worldwide.
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在全球范围内,能源是一笔价值6万亿美元的生意
15:05
It is the mother of all markets. You remember that Internet?
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是所有市场的先导者。你们记得因特网吧!
15:09
Well, I'll tell you what. Green technologies -- going green --
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我要告诉你们的是,绿色环保技术
15:13
is bigger than the Internet.
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是比因特网还大的一个市场。
15:14
It could be the biggest economic opportunity of the 21st century.
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它将会成为21世纪最大的经济机会,
15:18
Moreover, if we succeed, it's going to be
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另外,如果我们成功挖掘这个市场,那么它将
15:20
the most important transformation for life on the planet since,
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为这个星球带来有史以来最翻天覆地的变化,
15:24
as Bill Joy says, we went from methane to oxygen in the atmosphere.
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就像Bill Joy所说的,大气层经历了由甲烷到氧气的变化。
15:28
Now, here's the hard question, if the trajectory of all the world's
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这是一个很艰巨的事情,如果整个世界所有的
15:33
companies and individuals and policies and innovation
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企业、个人、政策、创新
15:37
is not going to be enough, what are we going to do? I don't know.
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都不足以认识到这个事情的重要性,那我们还能做什么?我不知道。
15:45
Everyone here cares about changing the world
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这里关注世界变化的每个人
15:48
and has made a difference in that one way or another.
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都通过这样或那样的方式来促成变化。
15:51
So, our call to action -- my call to you --
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我呼吁大家行动起来
15:55
is for you to make going green your next big thing, your gig.
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将支持绿色环保作为你们的头等大事。
16:02
What can you do? You can personally get carbon neutral.
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你们能做什么?你们排放出的二氧化碳中和,
16:08
Go to ClimateCrisis.org or CarbonCalculator.com
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登陆ClimateCrisis.org或者CarbonCalculator.com网站
16:12
and buy carbon credits. You could join other leaders in mandating,
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购买碳信用额度。你们也可以加入支持领导人的队伍,
16:17
lobbying for mandated cap and trade in U.S. greenhouse gas reductions.
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游说美国强制执行温室气体限排规定。
16:22
There's six bills right now in Congress. Let's get one of them passed.
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国会手上现在有6个议案。让我们促成其中一个有关环保的方案通过吧。
16:27
And the most important thing you can do, I think,
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我认为你们最应该做的一件事
16:29
is to use your personal power and your Rolodex
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就是用你们个人的力量,动员你们的朋友同事,
16:31
to lead your business, your institution, in going green.
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从你们的业务、公司开始,支持绿色环保。
16:35
Do it like Wal-Mart, get it to go green
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为了顾客,供应商,还有自己,学习沃尔玛,支持绿色科技
16:37
for its customers and its suppliers and for itself.
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16:42
Really think outside the box.
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我们要跳出固有的思维模式。
16:44
Can you imagine what it would be like if Amazon or eBay or Google
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你们能想象如果亚马逊、eBay、谷歌
16:49
or Microsoft or Apple really went green and you caused that to happen?
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微软或苹果支持绿色科技,又会发生什么呢?
16:54
It could be bigger than Wal-Mart.
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这影响可能远胜沃尔玛带来的。
16:59
I can't wait to see what we TEDsters do about this crisis.
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我迫不及待想知道我们这些TED会员会采取什么行动来对付这个危机。
17:05
And I really, really hope that we multiply all of our energy,
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我也非常非常希望我们所用能源更加多样化,
17:09
all of our talent and all of our influence to solve this problem.
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用我们的头脑和影响力来解决这个问题。
17:24
Because if we do, I can look forward
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如果我们能这么做,我就对
17:30
to the conversation I'm going to have with my daughter in 20 years.
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20年后与我女儿进行的谈话充满期待。
17:34
(Applause)
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(掌声)
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