James Surowiecki: The power and the danger of online crowds

翻译人员: Lezhao Ren 校对人员: Amy Zerotus

This was in an area called Wellawatta, a prime residential area in Colombo.

这个叫做Wellawatta的地方，是科伦坡的高级住宅区。

We stood on the railroad tracks

我们站在铁轨上

that ran between my friend's house and the beach.

它从我朋友的房子和海滩之间穿过。

The tracks are elevated about eight feet from the waterline normally,

一般情况下铁轨会高于水位8英尺，

but at that point the water had receded

但是在那时候水已经退到

to a level three or four feet below normal.

正常水位的3或者4英尺之下的位置了。

I'd never seen the reef here before.

我以前从来没有在那看到过珊瑚。

There were fish caught in rock pools left behind by the receding water.

潮水退后，那儿会有一些鱼被困在石头围成的小池子里。

Some children jumped down and ran to the rock pools with bags.

一些孩子们拿着口袋跳下去，跑向那些小池子。

They were trying to catch fish.

他们想抓鱼。

No one realized that this was a very bad idea.

没有人意识到这是个非常糟糕的主意。

The people on the tracks just continued to watch them.

站在铁轨上的人只是看着这些孩子们。

I turned around to check on my friend's house.

我回过头去看我朋友的房子。

Then someone on the tracks screamed.

然后站在铁轨上的一些人开始尖叫。

Before I could turn around, everyone on the tracks was screaming and running.

我还没有回过头来，在铁轨上的每个人都开始尖叫，奔跑。

The water had started coming back. It was foaming over the reef.

水已经回来了。在珊瑚上泛起水沫。

The children managed to run back onto the tracks.

孩子们跑回了铁轨上。

No one was lost there. But the water continued to climb.

没有人落下。但是水一直在涨。

In about two minutes, it had reached the level of the railroad tracks

在两分钟之内，水已经漫到铁轨之上

and was coming over it. We had run about 100 meters by this time.

即将把铁轨淹没。到那时我们跑了100多米远。

It continued to rise.

我继续踮起了脚看。

I saw an old man standing at his gate, knee-deep in water, refusing to move.

我看到一个老人站在他家门前齐膝深的水中，不愿离开。

He said he'd lived his whole life there by the beach,

他说他在海滩边已经住了一辈子，

and that he would rather die there than run.

他宁愿死也不会逃跑。

A boy broke away from his mother to run back into his house

一个小男孩挣脱了妈妈，跑回了他的房间去找他的狗。

to get his dog, who was apparently afraid.

显然，狗狗也很害怕。

An old lady, crying, was carried out of her house and up the road by her son.

一个老妇人，一边哭一边被她儿子抱出了房子带到了公路上。

The slum built on the railroad reservation

建在海和铁路之间的铁路保留区上的贫民窝棚

between the sea and the railroad tracks was completely swept away.

已经完全被冲走。

Since this was a high-risk location, the police had warned the residents,

由于这是一个高危区域，警察曾警告过那些居民

and no one was there when the water rose.

所以水位上升的时候没人在那。

But they had not had any time to evacuate any belongings.

但是他们没有时间去抢救财物。

For hours afterwards, the sea was strewn with bits of wood for miles around --

几个小时之后，数英里的海面上布满了木头的碎片

all of this was from the houses in the slum.

这些都来自于贫民窝棚。

When the waters subsided, it was as if it had never existed.

当潮水平息之后，一切似乎从来没有发生过。

This may seem hard to believe --

这可能听起来难以置信，

unless you've been reading lots and lots of news reports --

除非你已经读过了许许多多这样的新闻报道

but in many places, after the tsunami, villagers were still terrified.

但是在很多地方，海啸之后，村民们仍然感觉恐惧。

When what was a tranquil sea swallows up people, homes

当曾经平静的海面开始无情并毫无警告的吞没人们，家园

and long-tail boats -- mercilessly, without warning --

和那些长尾船时，

and no one can tell you anything reliable about whether another one is coming,

对于下一个海啸是不是会来，没有人能够给你可靠的消息，

I'm not sure you'd want to calm down either.

我不确定你想要冷静下来。

One of the scariest things about the tsunami

海啸最令人害怕的东西之一

that I've not seen mentioned is the complete lack of information.

是信息的极度缺乏。

This may seem minor, but it is terrifying to hear rumor after rumor

这似乎是小事，但听到一个接着一个的谣言，让人感到极度恐惧，

after rumor that another tidal wave, bigger than the last,

这些谣言说下一次海啸会比上一次更大，

will be coming at exactly 1 p.m., or perhaps tonight, or perhaps ...

会在下午1点来，或者是今晚，或者是。。。

You don't even know if it is safe to go back down to the water,

你根本不知道回到水里搭船去医院

to catch a boat to the hospital.

是不是安全。

We think that Phi Phi hospital was destroyed.

我们认为Phi Phi医院已经被毁了。

We think this boat is going to Phuket hospital,

我们认为这艘船将要去的是普吉医院，

but if it's too dangerous to land at its pier,

但是如果在码头靠岸太危险的话，

then perhaps it will go to Krabi instead, which is more protected.

也许就会去Krabi医院，一个更安全的地方。

We don't think another wave is coming right away.

我们并不认为下一次波浪马上就会来。

At the Phi Phi Hill Resort,

在Phi Phi山度假村，

I was tucked into the corner furthest away from the television,

我被挤到了离电视机最远的角落里，

but I strained to listen for information.

但是我一直在强迫自己听这些消息。

They reported that there was an 8.5 magnitude earthquake in Sumatra,

他们报道说在苏门答腊发生了8.5级的地震，

which triggered the massive tsunami.

触发了这次大海啸。

Having this news was comforting in some small way

听到这则消息稍稍有点安慰，

to understand what had just happened to us.

至少明白了刚才究竟发生了什么。

However, the report focused on what had already occurred

然而，报道更多关注的是那些已经发生的

and offered no information on what to expect now.

并没有提供任何有关于还会发生什么的信息。

In general, everything was merely hearsay and rumor,

大体上说，所有的都仅仅是道听途说或是谣言，

and not a single person I spoke to for over 36 hours

在过去的36个小时中，我说过话的人中，没有一个人

knew anything with any certainty.

确定的知道些什么。

Those were two accounts of the Asian tsunami from two Internet blogs

这是两篇从互络博客中选出的有关亚洲海啸的的博文

that essentially sprang up after it occurred.

而这些博客也是在海啸发生之后如雨后春笋般冒出来。

I'm now going to show you two video segments from the tsunami

我将要给你们看了两个有关海啸的视频片段

that also were shown on blogs.

而他们也是来自于博客。

I should warn you, they're pretty powerful.

我必须提醒你们，这些视频很有冲击力。

One from Thailand, and the second one from Phuket as well.

一个来自于泰国，第二个来自于普吉，

(Screaming)

（尖叫声）

Voice 1: It's coming in. It's coming again.

声音1：它进来了。它又回来了。

Voice 2: It's coming again?

声音2：它又回来了？

Voice 1: Yeah. It's coming again.

声音1：是的。它又回来了。

Voice 2: Come get inside here.

声音2：[不明]

Voice 1: It's coming again. Voice 2: New wave?

声音1：它又回来了。新潮水。

Voice 1: It's coming again. New wave!

它又回来了。

[Unclear]

[不明]

(Screaming)

（尖叫声）

They called me out here.

他们叫我从这出去。

James Surowiecki: Phew. Those were both on this site: waveofdestruction.org.

（叹气）这些视频都来自于这个网址：Waveofdestruction.org。

In the world of blogs, there's going to be before the tsunami and after the tsunami,

在博客世界里，这些将在海啸之前以及海啸之后发生，

because one of the things that happened in the wake of the tsunami was that,

因为在海啸刚刚发生之时，有一个事情是这样的，

although initially -- that is, in that first day --

虽然是最开始 - 或者说，就在第一天 -

there was actually a kind of dearth of live reporting, there was a dearth of live video

现场报道实际上在某种程度上说是十分缺乏的，现场视频也是十分缺乏的 -

and some people complained about this.

并且一些人还因此抱怨。

They said, "The blogsters let us down."

他们说，博客作者让我们失望了。

What became very clear was that,

很清楚的是，

within a few days, the outpouring of information was immense,

过了几天，输出的信息量是巨大的，

and we got a complete and powerful picture of what had happened

而且我们获得了一个完整并且冲击力十足的，有关于所发生事件的全景画面

in a way that we never had been able to get before.

以一种我们以往不可能获得的方式表达出来。

And what you had was a group of essentially unorganized, unconnected

一群根本上无组织，无联系

writers, video bloggers, etc., who were able to come up with

的作者，视频博主，以及其他人

a collective portrait of a disaster that gave us a much better sense

对海啸灾难进行了全面的描述，他们让我们得到了比主流媒体

of what it was like to actually be there than the mainstream media could give us.

更多的信息，让我们得到了亲历现场的感受。

And so in some ways the tsunami can be seen as a sort of seminal moment,

从一些方面来看，这次海啸能够看成一次创新性的时刻，

a moment in which the blogosphere came, to a certain degree, of age.

一个博客世界达到某种境界的时刻。

Now, I'm going to move now from this kind of --

现在，我们将移开现在这种

the sublime in the traditional sense of the word,

传统语义下的高尚 -

that is to say, awe-inspiring, terrifying -- to the somewhat more mundane.

也就是说非常好，激动人心 - 来到世俗世界。

Because when we think about blogs,

我们在思考博客的时候，

I think for most of us who are concerned about them,

我想对于大多数关心他们的人，

we're primarily concerned with things like politics, technology, etc.

我们主要关注的是政治，科技以及其他，

And I want to ask three questions in this talk,

这样，我想要在剩下的10分钟的演讲里

in the 10 minutes that remain, about the blogosphere.

问3个有关于博客世界的问题。

The first one is, What does it tell us about our ideas,

第一个问题是，关于我们的观念它究竟告诉了我们些什么，

about what motivates people to do things?

是什么驱使着人们去做事情？

The second is, Do blogs genuinely have the possibility

第二个问题是，博客真正有这样的可能性

of accessing a kind of collective intelligence

能够获取一种之前从未被开发出来的

that has previously remained, for the most part, untapped?

集体的智慧？

And then the third part is, What are the potential problems,

第三部分是，潜在的问题是什么，

or the dark side of blogs as we know them?

或者说博客的黑暗面是什么？

OK, the first question:

好，第一个问题：

What do they tell us about why people do things?

对于人们为什么做事情，它们告诉了我们什么？

One of the fascinating things about the blogosphere specifically,

博客世界令人着迷的事情中一个

and, of course, the Internet more generally --

或者说互联网中 -

and it's going to seem like a very obvious point,

看起来十分显而易见，

but I think it is an important one to think about --

但是我认为这是一个十分重要需要思考的事情 是-

is that the people who are generating these enormous reams of content

这些创造这些无数内容的人们

every day, who are spending enormous amounts of time organizing,

每天都在花无数的时间来整理

linking, commenting on the substance of the Internet,

链接，评论存在于互联网上的事物，

are doing so primarily for free.

并且绝大部分都是免费在做这个事情。

They are not getting paid for it in any way other than in the attention and,

他们不会获得报酬，除了受到关注，

to some extent, the reputational capital that they gain from doing a good job.

还有自己做得出色所得到的名声资本。

And this is -- at least, to a traditional economist -- somewhat remarkable,

对于传统的经济学家来说，这些都是了不起的事情，

because the traditional account of economic man would say that,

因为老派的经济学人会说，

basically, you do things for a concrete reward, primarily financial.

你知道，基本上，你做事情是为了获得实在的奖励，而绝大部分是金钱奖励。

But instead, what we're finding on the Internet --

与之对比的是，我们在互联网上发现的 -

and one of the great geniuses of it -- is that people have found a way

并且其中最伟大之处是 - 人们找到了某种方法

to work together without any money involved at all.

完全不为了钱而在一起工作。

They have come up with, in a sense, a different method for organizing activity.

他们找到了一种，不同的活动组织办法。

The Yale Law professor Yochai Benkler, in an essay called "Coase's Penguin,"

来自于耶鲁法学院的Yochai Benkler教授在一篇论文中称这个为“科斯的企鹅，”

talks about this open-source model, which we're familiar with from Linux,

关于这个的讲话，一种我们从Linux上熟悉的开源模型，

as being potentially applicable in a whole host of situations.

在各种情况下都有被应用的可能。

And, you know, if you think about this with the tsunami,

并且，你知道，如果你仔细想想这一次海啸，

what you have is essentially a kind of an army of local journalists,

你所拥有基本上是无数的“基层记者”

who are producing enormous amounts of material

他们制作着巨量的材料

for no reason other than to tell their stories.

为的是讲述他们的故事而不是为了钱

That's a very powerful idea, and it's a very powerful reality.

那是一个非常棒的主意，并且它有很强的现实操作性。

And it's one that offers really interesting possibilities

并且它是一个能够创造很多有趣的可能性的方法

for organizing a whole host of activities down the road.

在未来来组织很多活动。

So, I think the first thing that the blogosphere tells us

所以，我认为博客世界告诉我们的第一件事就是

is that we need to expand our idea of what counts as rational,

我们需要扩展我们所认为的理性世界，

and we need to expand our simple equation of value equals money,

并且我们需要扩展我们简单的将价值等同于金钱的等式，

or, you have to pay for it to be good,

或者说，你需要付钱才能得到好的这样的想法，

but that in fact you can end up with collectively really brilliant products

但是，实际上你能获得非常棒的集体创造的产品

without any money at all changing hands.

而不需要付任何的钱。

There are a few bloggers -- somewhere maybe around 20, now --

当然有少数博客作者 - 可能大约20， 到目前为止 -

who do, in fact, make some kind of money, and a few

实际上，他们能够赚一些钱，非常有限

who are actually trying to make a full-time living out of it,

有一些人实际上想要通过这一方式来谋生，

but the vast majority of them are doing it because they love it

但是绝大部分人之所以做这件事情仅仅是因为他们热爱它

or they love the attention, or whatever it is.

或者说他们喜欢得到关注，或者其他。

So, Howard Rheingold has written a lot about this

所以，霍华德 宁柯德曾写过很多有关这个的东西，

and, I think, is writing about this more,

并且我认为写这个会更多，

but this notion of voluntary cooperation

但是这一种自愿性合作的理念

is an incredibly powerful one, and one worth thinking about.

有种无可比拟的力量，它值得每个人为之思考。

The second question is, What does the blogosphere actually do for us,

第二个问题是，从获取集体性智慧这一方面来说，

in terms of accessing collective intelligence?

博客世界究竟为我们做了什么？

You know, as Chris mentioned, I wrote a book called "The Wisdom of Crowds."

你们可能知道，克里斯也曾提到的，我写过一本叫做“人群的智慧”书。

And the premise of "The Wisdom of Crowds" is that,

而“人群的智慧”的前提是，

under the right conditions, groups can be remarkably intelligent.

在正确的情形下，团体能够充分发挥聪明才智。

And they can actually often be smarter

并且实际上大多数时候他们比

than even the smartest person within them.

他们之中最聪明的人更加聪明。

The simplest example of this is if you ask a group of people

这个最简单的例子就是如果你叫一群人

to do something like guess how many jellybeans are in a jar.

去做些事，比如，猜瓶子里有多少粒软糖。

If I had a jar of jellybeans

如果我有一罐软糖，

and I asked you all to guess how many jellybeans were in that jar,

并且我要你猜罐子里有多少颗糖，

your average guess would be remarkably good.

你一般的猜测都会非常不错。

It would be somewhere probably within three and five percent

一般来说它只到

of the number of beans in the jar,

在罐子里糖的数量的3%到5%，

and it would be better than 90 to 95 percent of you.

而这一答案会比你们中90%到95%人的答案准确。

There may be one or two of you who are brilliant jelly bean guessers,

你们中可能有一两个出色的软糖猜谜人，

but for the most part the group's guess

但是绝大部分团体的猜测

would be better than just about all of you.

都会比所有的个人的猜测准确。

And what's fascinating is that you can see this phenomenon at work

这个现象最令人着迷的是，你能在很多复杂情况

in many more complicated situations.

的工作中看到这一现象。

For instance, if you look at the odds on horses at a racetrack,

所以，比如说，如果你看看猜跑道上赛马的赔率，

they predict almost perfectly how likely a horse is to win.

他们能够几乎完美的预测出一匹马赢的概率。

In a sense, the group of betters at the racetrack

在一定程度上，赛马行业的一群精英

is forecasting the future, in probabilistic terms.

以概率的方式，预测着未来。

You know, if you think about something like Google,

你知道，如果我考虑某些比如像Google一样的东西，

which essentially is relying on the collective intelligence of the Web

这些主要依靠集体智慧的网站

to seek out those sites that have the most valuable information --

来寻找所拥有的宝贵的信息的网站。

we know that Google does an exceptionally good job of doing that,

我们都知道对于那样的工作，Google能够出色的完成，

and it does that because, collectively, this disorganized thing

它之所以能够做到，是因为这一杂乱无序，我们叫做世界互联网的东西

we call the "World Wide Web" actually has a remarkable order,

实际上在整体上有着很清楚的次序，

or a remarkable intelligence in it.

或者可以说着惊人的智慧。

And this, I think, is one of the real promises of the blogosphere.

这，我认为，正是博客世界的真正希望之一。

Dan Gillmor -- whose book "We the Media"

Dan Gillmor写了一本书叫做“我们媒体”--

is included in the gift pack --

我们在礼物包中有提供--

has talked about it as saying that, as a writer,

谈到了他作为一个作家

he's recognized that his readers know more than he does.

发现他的读者比他知道得更多。

And this is a very challenging idea. It's a very challenging idea

而这是一个十分有挑战性的观点。非常非常有挑战性

to mainstream media. It's a very challenging idea to anyone

特别是对主流媒体来说。这也是一个对于任何花费了无数时间，拥有专业技能的人

who has invested an enormous amount of time and expertise,

十分有挑战性的观点

and who has a lot of energy invested in the notion

同样也是对那些花费了很多精力形成一个观点，

that he or she knows better than everyone else.

认为自己比其他人知道的更多的人的一种挑战。

But what the blogosphere offers is the possibility

但是博客世界提供的是一种

of getting at the kind of collective, distributive intelligence that is out there,

能够获得存在于世间集体的，分散性智慧的可能性，

and that we know is available to us

我们知道，它能够为我所用

if we can just figure out a way of accessing it.

如果我们能够找到获得它的途径。

Each blog post, each blog commentary

每一条博客主题，每一则博客评论，

may not, in and of itself, be exactly what we're looking for,

可能并不是跟我们所需要的东西一模一样，

but collectively the judgment of those people posting, those people linking,

但是这些人所张贴主题中所反射出的集体判断力，这些人链接，

more often than not is going to give you a very interesting

更有可能给你一个对于所发生事情

and enormously valuable picture of what's going on.

十分有趣的并且相当有价值的视野。

So, that's the positive side of it.

所以，这是它积极的一面。

That's the positive side of what is sometimes called

而这一积极的一面经常被称为

participatory journalism or citizen journalism, etc. --

参与式新闻或者公民新闻，等等，

that, in fact, we are giving people

实际上，我们都是那一类人

who have never been able to talk before a voice,

在同一种声音前无法发声，

and we're able to access information that has always been there

并且我们能够获取那些始终存在

but has essentially gone untapped.

但是基本上从未被涉及到的信息。

But there is a dark side to this,

但是它同样也有黑暗的一面，

and that's what I want to spend the last part of my talk on.

而这正是我最后一部分演讲将要涉及的地方。

One of the things that happens if you spend a lot of time on the Internet,

如果你花很多时间在互联网上，或者花很多时间思考互联网

and you spend a lot of time thinking about the Internet,

有一种事情将会发生

is that it is very easy to fall in love with the Internet.

你将会爱上互联网。

It is very easy to fall in love with the decentralized,

非常容易你将会爱上去中心化，

bottom-up structure of the Internet.

从下到上建构的互联网。

It is very easy to think that networks are necessarily good things --

同样你也能够很容易想到互联网一定就是好的,

that being linked from one place to another,

它们从一个地方链接到另外地方，

that being tightly linked in a group, is a very good thing.

与集体紧密相连，是非常好的一件事。

And much of the time it is.

在大多数情况都是这样。

But there's also a downside to this -- a kind of dark side, in fact --

但是这同样也有不好的一面 - 实际上，黑暗的一面 -

and that is that the more tightly linked we've become to each other,

当我们更加紧密的连接在一起的时候，

the harder it is for each of us to remain independent.

我们要保持各自的独立性就更难。

One of the fundamental characteristics of a network is that,

网络最基本的一个特征是

once you are linked in the network,

只要你连上了网络

the network starts to shape your views

网络就会开始塑造你的观点

and starts to shape your interactions with everybody else.

并且同时开始塑造你与他人的互动。

That's one of the things that defines what a network is.

而这正是定义什么是网络的因素之一。

A network is not just the product of its component parts.

网络并不是简单的是组成它的部分的集合。

It is something more than that.

更多时候它会比这更多。

It is, as Steven Johnson has talked about, an emergent phenomenon.

正如Stieve Johnson谈过的一样，这是一个很新鲜的现象。

Now, this has all these benefits:

现在，它有这么一些优点：

it's very beneficial in terms of the efficiency of communicating information;

对于有效的信息沟通，它是十分有益的；

it gives you access to a whole host of people;

它能使你接触到各种各样的人；

it allows people to coordinate their activities in very good ways.

它能够让人们以一种好的方式协调他们的活动。

But the problem is that groups are only smart

但是问题是，集体，只有在人们

when the people in them are as independent as possible.

尽可能独立的情况下才能显现出智慧。

This is the paradox of the wisdom of crowds,

只是一种群众智慧的矛盾，

or the paradox of collective intelligence,

或者说是集体智慧的矛盾，

that what it requires is actually a form of independent thinking.

它所真正需要的是一种独立的思想。

And networks make it harder for people to do that,

而网络使人们更难做到那一点，

because they drive attention to the things that the network values.

因为他们使更多的注意力转到了网络所重视的地方。

So, one of the phenomena that's very clear in the blogosphere

所以，在博客世界中一个非常清楚的现象是

is that once a meme, once an idea gets going,

一旦一个文化基因，一个想法，开始发展

it is very easy for people to just sort of pile on,

人们非常容易继续发展它，

because other people have, say, a link.

因为其他人都拥有，比如说，相互连接。

People have linked to it, and so other people in turn link to it, etc., etc.

一些人开始与之有连接，然后其他人开始轮流与之有连接，然后又是其他人。。。

And that phenomenon

这是一种

of piling on the existing links

在已经存在的连接上继续延伸的现象

is one that is characteristic of the blogosphere,

而它真是博客世界的特征，

particularly of the political blogosphere,

特别是政治博客世界的特征，

and it is one that essentially throws off

而这从根本上来说是一种抛弃

this beautiful, decentralized, bottom-up intelligence

一种对去中心化，自下而上美丽智慧的抛弃

that blogs can manifest in the right conditions.

而这一智慧真是博客在正常情况下必然能够展现的。

The metaphor that I like to use is the metaphor of the circular mill.

我在这想用转圆圈来打比方。

A lot of people talk about ants.

很多人会说到蚂蚁。

You know, this is a conference inspired by nature.

我们都知道，这是一个被自然启发而生的会议。

When we talk about bottom-up, decentralized phenomena,

当我们讨论这些自下而上，去中心化的现象时，

the ant colony is the classic metaphor, because,

蚁巢就是这一类的经典比喻，因为我们知道，

no individual ant knows what it's doing,

每一个单独的蚂蚁并不知道它们在做什么，

but collectively ants are able to reach incredibly intelligent decisions.

但是通过集体，蚂蚁们能够做出惊人的智慧决策。

They're able to reach food as efficiently as possible,

它们能够以惊人的高速引导他们的交通。

they're able to guide their traffic with remarkable speed.

So, the ant colony is a great model:

所以，蚁巢是一个非常好的模型 -

you have all these little parts that collectively add up to a great thing.

我们所有的这些小部件最终能够组成一个伟大的东西。

But we know that occasionally ants go astray,

但是我们也知道蚂蚁偶尔也会迷路，

and what happens is that, if army ants are wandering around and they get lost,

这样的情况是，如果兵蚁在绕圈并且失去了方向感，

they start to follow a simple rule --

他们将会遵循一条简单原则 -

just do what the ant in front of you does.

他们将做它们前面蚂蚁做的同样事情。

And what happens is that the ants eventually end up in a circle.

所以最终蚂蚁将会走出一个圆圈。

And there's this famous example of one that was 1,200 feet long

这其中最著名的一个例子走出了一千二百英尺长的距离

and lasted for two days, and the ants just kept marching around and around

持续了两天，这些蚂蚁不停的绕圈前进

in a circle until they died.

一直绕圈直到他们死掉。

And that, I think, is a sort of thing to watch out for.

我认为，那是一种我们必须要警惕的事情。

That's the thing we have to fear --

如果我们一直绕圈直到我们死去

is that we're just going to keep marching around and around until we die.

这将是一种我们必须要畏惧的事情。

Now, I want to connect this back, though, to the tsunami,

现在，我想要将这个例子往回延伸，到我们的海啸上，

because one of the great things about the tsunami --

因为关于海啸有件很好的事，

in terms of the blogosphere's coverage,

在博客世界报道海啸方面，

not in terms of the tsunami itself --

不是海啸本身，

is that it really did represent a genuine bottom-up phenomenon.

就是它确实代表了一种真实的自下而上的现象。

You saw sites that had never existed before getting huge amounts of traffic.

你会发现很多以前从未存在的网站会得到巨大访问量。

You saw people being able to offer up their independent points of view

你会发现人们能够提供他们独立的见解和视角

in a way that they hadn't before.

以他们从未有过的方式提供。

There, you really did see the intelligence of the Web manifest itself.

并且我们能够真正从中看到网络展现了它的智慧。

So, that's the upside. The circular mill is the downside.

所以，那正是积极的一面。而循环的绕圈则是它消极的一面。

And I think that the former is what we really need to strive for.

并且我认为前一种情况正是我们需要不断努力来不断获得的。

Thank you very much. (Applause)

谢谢。