James Surowiecki: The power and the danger of online crowds

ジェイムズ・スロウィッキー: ソーシャルメディアの転換期

翻訳: Junko KUBOTA 校正: Masaki Yanagishita

This was in an area called Wellawatta, a prime residential area in Colombo.

コロンボのウェラワッタという高級住宅地で

We stood on the railroad tracks

友人宅とビーチの間を走る

that ran between my friend's house and the beach.

線路に私たちは立っていた

The tracks are elevated about eight feet from the waterline normally,

その線路は普段 水面から2.5メートル程かさ上げされているが

but at that point the water had receded

そのときは1メートル程

to a level three or four feet below normal.

潮位が下がっていた

I'd never seen the reef here before.

初めてそこのサンゴを目にし

There were fish caught in rock pools left behind by the receding water.

引潮による潮だまりには魚が取り残されていた

Some children jumped down and ran to the rock pools with bags.

子供たちはそこに飛び込んで

They were trying to catch fish.

袋に魚を獲ろうとしていた

No one realized that this was a very bad idea.

それが災いを招くことは誰も知らずに・・

The people on the tracks just continued to watch them.

線路に立つ人々はただ彼らを眺めていた

I turned around to check on my friend's house.

私は友人宅に引き返そうとしたその時

Then someone on the tracks screamed.

誰かが叫んだ

Before I could turn around, everyone on the tracks was screaming and running.

すると 一目散に誰もが叫び逃げ出した

The water had started coming back. It was foaming over the reef.

サンゴに激しくぶつかりながら 潮が戻ってきたのだ

The children managed to run back onto the tracks.

子供たちはなんとか線路まで戻ったが

No one was lost there. But the water continued to climb.

波はどんどん押し寄せてくる

In about two minutes, it had reached the level of the railroad tracks

2分後には線路にまで達し さらにそれを超えてきた

and was coming over it. We had run about 100 meters by this time.

この時点で私たちは100メートルは走ったが

It continued to rise.

波はまだ押し寄せる

I saw an old man standing at his gate, knee-deep in water, refusing to move.

老人がひざ丈まで水に浸かりながらも逃げずにいる

He said he'd lived his whole life there by the beach,

彼は「今までここで生きてきた

and that he would rather die there than run.

逃げるなら死んだほうがましだ！」と叫び

A boy broke away from his mother to run back into his house

少年は母親を振りほどき

to get his dog, who was apparently afraid.

恐怖におびえる自分の犬を助けに走り

An old lady, crying, was carried out of her house and up the road by her son.

老女は息子に抱えられ家から逃げる

The slum built on the railroad reservation

海と線路の間にあったスラム街は

between the sea and the railroad tracks was completely swept away.

完全に波にさらわれた

Since this was a high-risk location, the police had warned the residents,

危険地帯の住民には警報が出されており

and no one was there when the water rose.

逃げ遅れた者はいなかったが

But they had not had any time to evacuate any belongings.

荷物を持って逃げる時間はなかった

For hours afterwards, the sea was strewn with bits of wood for miles around --

数時間後にはスラム街からのがれきが

all of this was from the houses in the slum.

海水とともにあたり中に散らばり

When the waters subsided, it was as if it had never existed.

水が引いたときには 跡形もなくなっていた

This may seem hard to believe --

たくさんのニュースを目にしていなければ

unless you've been reading lots and lots of news reports --

信じ難いかもしれないが 津波の後も

but in many places, after the tsunami, villagers were still terrified.

多くの場所で 住民はまだ恐れていた

When what was a tranquil sea swallows up people, homes

穏やかだった海は 突然 無慈悲にも

and long-tail boats -- mercilessly, without warning --

人々や家々 ボートまでをも飲み込み

and no one can tell you anything reliable about whether another one is coming,

次の津波が来るのかどうか 誰もわからない

I'm not sure you'd want to calm down either.

それを知ってどうなるかもわからないが

One of the scariest things about the tsunami

あの津波の恐ろしさは

that I've not seen mentioned is the complete lack of information.

情報がまるでなかったということであろう

This may seem minor, but it is terrifying to hear rumor after rumor

些細なことのようだが 次の津波は午後１時ぴったりに

after rumor that another tidal wave, bigger than the last,

いや 今夜かも いやいや たぶん・・と、

will be coming at exactly 1 p.m., or perhaps tonight, or perhaps ...

噂が噂を呼ぶのは 実際かなりの恐怖を煽る

You don't even know if it is safe to go back down to the water,

病院へ向かうため ボートに乗ることが

to catch a boat to the hospital.

安全かどうかさえわからない

We think that Phi Phi hospital was destroyed.

ファイファイ病院は波でやられただろう

We think this boat is going to Phuket hospital,

このボートはプーケット病院に向かうが

but if it's too dangerous to land at its pier,

波止場につけるのが危険すぎるなら

then perhaps it will go to Krabi instead, which is more protected.

代わりにもっと安全なクラビに向かうだろう

We don't think another wave is coming right away.

次の津波がすぐに来ることはないだろうから

At the Phi Phi Hill Resort,

ファイファイ・ヒル・リゾートで

I was tucked into the corner furthest away from the television,

私はテレビから遠くの部屋の隅に押し込まれたが

but I strained to listen for information.

テレビからの情報に耳をそばだてていた

They reported that there was an 8.5 magnitude earthquake in Sumatra,

その情報によると スマトラでM8.5の地震が起き

which triggered the massive tsunami.

それがあの巨大津波を引き起こした

Having this news was comforting in some small way

ニュースから私たちは一体何が起きたのか知り

to understand what had just happened to us.

少しは安心することができた

However, the report focused on what had already occurred

しかし その内容は何が起こったのか そればかりで

and offered no information on what to expect now.

今後何が起こるのかはわからなかった

In general, everything was merely hearsay and rumor,

すべては単なる噂にすぎず

and not a single person I spoke to for over 36 hours

私が36時間以上 人に訊ねまわっても

knew anything with any certainty.

誰も確かなことは知らなかった

Those were two accounts of the Asian tsunami from two Internet blogs

アジアの津波の後に急増したブログから

that essentially sprang up after it occurred.

津波の様子を紹介しました

I'm now going to show you two video segments from the tsunami

ブログでも紹介されていた

that also were shown on blogs.

津波の映像を２本お見せします

I should warn you, they're pretty powerful.

かなり衝撃的です

One from Thailand, and the second one from Phuket as well.

タイの映像 そして 同じくプーケットの映像です

(Screaming)

（叫び声）

Voice 1: It's coming in. It's coming again.

声１：　来る！また来るぞ！

Voice 2: It's coming again?

声２：　またか？！

Voice 1: Yeah. It's coming again.

声１：　ああ また来てる！

Voice 2: Come get inside here.

声２：　中に入ろう！

Voice 1: It's coming again. Voice 2: New wave?

声１：　また波来たぞ！　声２：　またか！

Voice 1: It's coming again. New wave!

声１：　そうだ！次の波が来てる！

[Unclear]

(Screaming)

（叫び声）

They called me out here.

まだあそこに人がいるぞ！

James Surowiecki: Phew. Those were both on this site: waveofdestruction.org.

このサイトに載っていた動画でした waveofdestruction.org

In the world of blogs, there's going to be before the tsunami and after the tsunami,

ブログの世界は 津波の前後で大きく変わりました

because one of the things that happened in the wake of the tsunami was that,

津波に引き続いて起こったことは何かと言えば

although initially -- that is, in that first day --

最初こそ -- 初日こそブログには

there was actually a kind of dearth of live reporting, there was a dearth of live video

実況の報告もビデオもまったくありませんでしたが

and some people complained about this.

そのために

They said, "The blogsters let us down."

「ブログにはがっかりした」と 不満を漏らす人もいたほどです

What became very clear was that,

その後2, 3 日もすると

within a few days, the outpouring of information was immense,

膨大な情報が溢れかえり 起きたことの全てが

and we got a complete and powerful picture of what had happened

迫力をもって描き出されていることが はっきりしたのです

in a way that we never had been able to get before.

これまでにはなかったことでした

And what you had was a group of essentially unorganized, unconnected

それを行ったのは ばらばらで 実質的に組織されていない

writers, video bloggers, etc., who were able to come up with

ライターやビデオ・ブロガーなどで 情報の集積によって

a collective portrait of a disaster that gave us a much better sense

この災害の現場の様子を描き出しました

of what it was like to actually be there than the mainstream media could give us.

それは主流のメディアの情報よりも ずっと分かりやすかったのです

And so in some ways the tsunami can be seen as a sort of seminal moment,

故に あの津波は ブログが本領を発揮し始めた

a moment in which the blogosphere came, to a certain degree, of age.

歴史的なの瞬間だったとも言えるでしょう

Now, I'm going to move now from this kind of --

さて このような高尚で

the sublime in the traditional sense of the word,

いうなれば荘厳で恐ろしい話題から

that is to say, awe-inspiring, terrifying -- to the somewhat more mundane.

もっと身近なことへと話を進めましょう

Because when we think about blogs,

ブログについて考えるとき

I think for most of us who are concerned about them,

ほとんどの人が

we're primarily concerned with things like politics, technology, etc.

まず 政治やテクノロジーなどを 思い浮かべるでしょう

And I want to ask three questions in this talk,

そこで私は残り10分で ブログ界についての

in the 10 minutes that remain, about the blogosphere.

３つの疑問を挙げたいと思います

The first one is, What does it tell us about our ideas,

ひとつ目は 人を行動に駆り立てるものについて

about what motivates people to do things?

ブログから分かることは何か

The second is, Do blogs genuinely have the possibility

二つ目に これまで未開拓だった集団的知性に

of accessing a kind of collective intelligence

ブログが本当に到達する可能性はあるのか

that has previously remained, for the most part, untapped?

And then the third part is, What are the potential problems,

三つ目に

ブログの潜在的な問題

or the dark side of blogs as we know them?

ブログの抱える問題点とは何か という問いです

OK, the first question:

では 第一の質問

What do they tell us about why people do things?

人々を行動させる理由について

One of the fascinating things about the blogosphere specifically,

ブログから何がわかるか 特にブログ界で

and, of course, the Internet more generally --

さらに広く言えばインターネットで 魅力的なことは

and it's going to seem like a very obvious point,

―あたりまえと思われるかもしれませんが

but I think it is an important one to think about --

私は重要と考えていることで―

is that the people who are generating these enormous reams of content

ネットサイトの構築や リンクを張り コメントを残し

every day, who are spending enormous amounts of time organizing,

これほど多量のコンテンツを毎日載せる人たちが

linking, commenting on the substance of the Internet,

基本的に報酬なしで行っているという点です

are doing so primarily for free.

良い仕事に対して 注目を集め

They are not getting paid for it in any way other than in the attention and,

高い評価を獲得するということ以外には

to some extent, the reputational capital that they gain from doing a good job.

人々は何の報酬も得ていません

And this is -- at least, to a traditional economist -- somewhat remarkable,

これは 少なくとも伝統的な経済学者から見れば

because the traditional account of economic man would say that,

驚くべきことです 伝統的な見方では 基本的に

basically, you do things for a concrete reward, primarily financial.

人間は経済的には 明確な報酬 つまりお金のために働くものでした

But instead, what we're finding on the Internet --

しかし インターネットを見ると

and one of the great geniuses of it -- is that people have found a way

素晴らしいことに お金とは関係なく人々が協働する方法が

to work together without any money involved at all.

見出されたことが わかります

They have come up with, in a sense, a different method for organizing activity.

活動を組織化するための 新しい方法が創り出されています

The Yale Law professor Yochai Benkler, in an essay called "Coase's Penguin,"

エール法科大のヨーカイ・ベンクラーは 『ロナルド・コースのペンギン』という論文で

talks about this open-source model, which we're familiar with from Linux,

リナックスで良く知られた オープンソースモデルについて

as being potentially applicable in a whole host of situations.

あらゆる状況に適用可能だと述べています

And, you know, if you think about this with the tsunami,

あの津波を思いだしてください

what you have is essentially a kind of an army of local journalists,

ジャーナリストが各地に多数いて

who are producing enormous amounts of material

自分の話を伝えたいということだけを理由に

for no reason other than to tell their stories.

大量の記事を書きました

That's a very powerful idea, and it's a very powerful reality.

その意義は大きく 迫力のある真実です

And it's one that offers really interesting possibilities

このことは いずれ将来

for organizing a whole host of activities down the road.

この大量の活動を組織すると 面白い可能性があることを示します

So, I think the first thing that the blogosphere tells us

つまり ブログ界が示していることは

is that we need to expand our idea of what counts as rational,

私たちが理性的だとされていた考えを 拡張して

and we need to expand our simple equation of value equals money,

「モノの価値＝カネ」という方程式を拡張するか あるいは

or, you have to pay for it to be good,

ずっとカネを払い続けるかということです

but that in fact you can end up with collectively really brilliant products

しかし実際にはカネが動くことなく

without any money at all changing hands.

集合的に 本当に素晴らしいモノを創り出せるのです

There are a few bloggers -- somewhere maybe around 20, now --

ごく少数 ―20人ほどでしょう― の人は

who do, in fact, make some kind of money, and a few

ある意味 お金を稼いでいて

who are actually trying to make a full-time living out of it,

それで生計を立てようとする者も少しいます

but the vast majority of them are doing it because they love it

しかし大部分はただ好きでやっていたり

or they love the attention, or whatever it is.

注目されたいなどの理由からでしょう

So, Howard Rheingold has written a lot about this

ハワード・ラインゴールドはこの点について

and, I think, is writing about this more,

多く言及していますが

but this notion of voluntary cooperation

自発的な協力というものは

is an incredibly powerful one, and one worth thinking about.

信じ難いほど強力で 考察すべきものだとしています

The second question is, What does the blogosphere actually do for us,

二つ目の質問は 集合的知能にアクセスすることに関して

in terms of accessing collective intelligence?

ブログ界は実際にどんな役割を担っているのかです

You know, as Chris mentioned, I wrote a book called "The Wisdom of Crowds."

クリスに紹介された私の本 『「みんなの意見」は案外正しい』では

And the premise of "The Wisdom of Crowds" is that,

前提として 正しい条件下では

under the right conditions, groups can be remarkably intelligent.

グループは目覚ましい知性を発揮しうるとしています

And they can actually often be smarter

しばしば グループで一番賢い人よりも

than even the smartest person within them.

賢くなれるのです

The simplest example of this is if you ask a group of people

簡単な例では あるグループに

to do something like guess how many jellybeans are in a jar.

ビンにジェリービーンズがいくつ入っているか 推測させるとしましょう

If I had a jar of jellybeans

私がそのビンを持っていて

and I asked you all to guess how many jellybeans were in that jar,

みなさんにいくつ入っているか聞いてみると

your average guess would be remarkably good.

その平均値はかなり正解に近くなるのです

It would be somewhere probably within three and five percent

おそらく正答の3~5%の範囲内でしょう

of the number of beans in the jar,

そしてその平均値は

and it would be better than 90 to 95 percent of you.

90から95パーセントの回答より優れているのです

There may be one or two of you who are brilliant jelly bean guessers,

ひとりふたりはかなり優れた値を 出してくるかもしれません

but for the most part the group's guess

しかし グループで導き出した答えは

would be better than just about all of you.

あなた方の答えより正答に近くなるでしょう

And what's fascinating is that you can see this phenomenon at work

そして素晴らしいことに もっと複雑な場面でも

in many more complicated situations.

この現象は機能するのです

For instance, if you look at the odds on horses at a racetrack,

たとえば 競馬でのオッズを見ると

they predict almost perfectly how likely a horse is to win.

ほぼ完璧に勝敗予測が立っている

In a sense, the group of betters at the racetrack

予想屋のグループが可能性という面で

is forecasting the future, in probabilistic terms.

ある意味未来を予測しているのです

You know, if you think about something like Google,

グーグルなどは

which essentially is relying on the collective intelligence of the Web

本質的にウェブの集合的知能に依拠し

to seek out those sites that have the most valuable information --

それにより最も有用なサイトを探し出しています

we know that Google does an exceptionally good job of doing that,

グーグルはありえないほどにうまく行っています

and it does that because, collectively, this disorganized thing

それは集合的に”ワールド-ワイド-ウェブ"という

we call the "World Wide Web" actually has a remarkable order,

無秩序なものに 実は優れた秩序 もしくは

or a remarkable intelligence in it.

優れた知能が含まれているからです

And this, I think, is one of the real promises of the blogosphere.

そしてブログ界にはこんな見込みがあると思います

Dan Gillmor -- whose book "We the Media"

ダン・ギルモアは

is included in the gift pack --

著書『ブログ　世界を変える個人メディア』の中で

has talked about it as saying that, as a writer,

こう語っています

he's recognized that his readers know more than he does.

「自分より読み手のほうが博識である」

And this is a very challenging idea. It's a very challenging idea

これはとても挑戦的な考えです

to mainstream media. It's a very challenging idea to anyone

主流のメディアにとって また

who has invested an enormous amount of time and expertise,

膨大な時間と専門知識に身を奉げる人や

and who has a lot of energy invested in the notion

自分の専門に 多くのエネルギーを費やしてきた人にとって

that he or she knows better than everyone else.

非常に挑戦的な考えです

But what the blogosphere offers is the possibility

しかし ブログ界がもたらすものは

of getting at the kind of collective, distributive intelligence that is out there,

集合的で広く行き渡る知能を得る可能性です

and that we know is available to us

そしてそこにアクセスすることができれば

if we can just figure out a way of accessing it.

私たちの知能はすべての人に利用可能なのです

Each blog post, each blog commentary

個々のブログやコメントは

may not, in and of itself, be exactly what we're looking for,

私たちが求めるものとは少し違うかもしれないが

but collectively the judgment of those people posting, those people linking,

それらの総合的な見識は

more often than not is going to give you a very interesting

多くの場合 非常に興味深く

and enormously valuable picture of what's going on.

価値のある内容である

So, that's the positive side of it.

これがブログ界の魅力的な点です

That's the positive side of what is sometimes called

ときにこれは参加型ジャーナリズム

participatory journalism or citizen journalism, etc. --

市民ジャーナリズムなどと呼ばれています

that, in fact, we are giving people

そして実際に

who have never been able to talk before a voice,

それまで黙っていた人たちが声を上げるようになり

and we're able to access information that has always been there

私たちは以前から存在するが使われなかった情報に

but has essentially gone untapped.

いつでもアクセスできる状態になります

But there is a dark side to this,

しかしこれには問題もあります

and that's what I want to spend the last part of my talk on.

残りの時間をかけてお話しましょう

One of the things that happens if you spend a lot of time on the Internet,

インターネットに多くの時間を費やすようになり

and you spend a lot of time thinking about the Internet,

ネット上のことで頭がいっぱいになると

is that it is very easy to fall in love with the Internet.

インターネットそのものに恋に落ちてしまうことがある

It is very easy to fall in love with the decentralized,

そのボトムアップで分散型の性質そのものに

bottom-up structure of the Internet.

簡単に惚れてしまう

It is very easy to think that networks are necessarily good things --

それが必然的に素晴らしいものだと考える

that being linked from one place to another,

次から次へと繋がっていき

that being tightly linked in a group, is a very good thing.

グループを形成することが心地よく思えてくる

And much of the time it is.

多くの場合でそうであるが

But there's also a downside to this -- a kind of dark side, in fact --

これこそが ブログ界の問題なのです

and that is that the more tightly linked we've become to each other,

より強く結びついていけばいくほど

the harder it is for each of us to remain independent.

独立性を保つのが難しくなる

One of the fundamental characteristics of a network is that,

ネットワークの基本的な性質のひとつに

once you are linked in the network,

一度繋がりを持つと

the network starts to shape your views

それがあなたの見解を作り出し

and starts to shape your interactions with everybody else.

他の人との関係を形作ってしまうのです

That's one of the things that defines what a network is.

ネットワークとは そう定義されたものでもあります

A network is not just the product of its component parts.

単なる部分パーツの寄せ集めではなく

It is something more than that.

それ以上の意味を持ってしまう

It is, as Steven Johnson has talked about, an emergent phenomenon.

スティーブ・ジョンソンはこれを 創発現象と呼んでいます

Now, this has all these benefits:

こんな風に役立ちます

it's very beneficial in terms of the efficiency of communicating information;

情報交換の効率面に貢献して

it gives you access to a whole host of people;

多数の人と連絡をとることができます

it allows people to coordinate their activities in very good ways.

また人々が協力して活動することも助けます

But the problem is that groups are only smart

問題は グループが賢い決定をするには

when the people in them are as independent as possible.

個々の独立性が 保たれなければならないということです

This is the paradox of the wisdom of crowds,

これは「みんなの意見」や

or the paradox of collective intelligence,

集合的知能の逆説になってしまいますが

that what it requires is actually a form of independent thinking.

まさに必要なのは 独立した思考なのです

And networks make it harder for people to do that,

ネットワークはそれを難しくさせてしまいます

because they drive attention to the things that the network values.

思考が影響を受けてしまうからです

So, one of the phenomena that's very clear in the blogosphere

ここでブログ界で顕著な現象は

is that once a meme, once an idea gets going,

一度ミーム ―アイデアが動き始めると

it is very easy for people to just sort of pile on,

とても簡単にそれを集積できるのです

because other people have, say, a link.

それは他の人からのリンクが理由です

People have linked to it, and so other people in turn link to it, etc., etc.

誰かがリンクを張ると 他の人がさらにそこにリンクする

And that phenomenon

そしてこの

of piling on the existing links

積み重なるリンクこそが

is one that is characteristic of the blogosphere,

ブログ界の性質なのです

particularly of the political blogosphere,

特に政治的なものでは 顕著です

and it is one that essentially throws off

正しい状況下でブログが示しうる

this beautiful, decentralized, bottom-up intelligence

この素晴らしい 分散型でボトムアップの知能を

that blogs can manifest in the right conditions.

必然的に排除してしまうのです

The metaphor that I like to use is the metaphor of the circular mill.

私はよくウォーキングミルの例えを使いますが

A lot of people talk about ants.

多くの人は蟻を例に挙げます

You know, this is a conference inspired by nature.

ボトムアップ式で

When we talk about bottom-up, decentralized phenomena,

分散型の現象を考えるとき

the ant colony is the classic metaphor, because,

蟻の巣は典型的な例になります

no individual ant knows what it's doing,

個々の蟻は無意識でも

but collectively ants are able to reach incredibly intelligent decisions.

集団としては賢い選択にたどり着くからです

They're able to reach food as efficiently as possible,

食べ物にできるだけ早く到達できるよう

they're able to guide their traffic with remarkable speed.

素早く交通整理をすることが出来る

ゆえに 蟻の巣は良いモデルとなっている

So, the ant colony is a great model:

you have all these little parts that collectively add up to a great thing.

三人寄れば文殊の知恵 ということです

But we know that occasionally ants go astray,

しかし 道に迷ってしまうこともある

and what happens is that, if army ants are wandering around and they get lost,

さらには 兵隊蟻が迷ってしまうと 蟻たちは

they start to follow a simple rule --

基本のルールに従って

just do what the ant in front of you does.

目の前の蟻をただ真似てしまうのです

And what happens is that the ants eventually end up in a circle.

すると 蟻たちは徐々に円を描き始める

And there's this famous example of one that was 1,200 feet long

2日間 360メートル 円の中を

and lasted for two days, and the ants just kept marching around and around

行進し続けたという例もある

in a circle until they died.

ただ死ぬまで

And that, I think, is a sort of thing to watch out for.

そして これこそ私たちが注意し

That's the thing we have to fear --

気をつけなければならないことなのです

is that we're just going to keep marching around and around until we die.

蟻のように 死ぬまで行進し続けないように

Now, I want to connect this back, though, to the tsunami,

これを踏まえて 津波に話を戻すと

because one of the great things about the tsunami --

津波の話で驚異的な点は

in terms of the blogosphere's coverage,

津波そのものではなく

not in terms of the tsunami itself --

ブログ界の影響力に関してですが

is that it really did represent a genuine bottom-up phenomenon.

ボトムアップの現象を強く描き出しました

You saw sites that had never existed before getting huge amounts of traffic.

それまで存在しなかったサイトに アクセスが集中したり

You saw people being able to offer up their independent points of view

今まで表すことのなかった独自の考えを

in a way that they hadn't before.

これまでにない方法で表現できるなど

There, you really did see the intelligence of the Web manifest itself.

ウェブが示す知能をあなたは確かに目にしたのです

So, that's the upside. The circular mill is the downside.

これは素晴らしい点です 無限ループは良くない例です

And I think that the former is what we really need to strive for.

素晴らしいことに我々は注力すべきだと考えます

Thank you very much. (Applause)

ありがとうございました