请双击下面的英文字幕来播放视频。
翻译人员: Melody Chen
校对人员: Wendy Wu
00:12
Bryn Freedman: You're a guy whose company
funds these AI programs and invests.
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布莱恩·弗里德曼(BF):你的公司
资助并投资了这些人工智能的项目。
00:18
So why should we trust you
to not have a bias
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那么我们怎么能够相信你没有偏见,
00:23
and tell us something really useful
for the rest of us
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会告诉我们关于未来工作的
00:26
about the future of work?
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一些真正有用的东西?
00:29
Roy Bahat: Yes, I am.
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罗伊·巴哈特(RB):
对,我投资人工智能。
00:30
And when you wake up in the morning
and you read the newspaper
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当你在清晨起床,浏览报纸,
00:33
and it says, "The robots are coming,
they may take all our jobs,"
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报纸上说:“机器人来了,
它们可能会抢走我们所有的工作。”
00:37
as a start-up investor
focused on the future of work,
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作为一个关注职业未来的
初创公司投资者,
00:39
our fund was the first one to say
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我们的基金第一个宣告
00:41
artificial intelligence
should be a focus for us.
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人工智能应该成为我们的焦点。
00:44
So I woke up one morning
and read that and said,
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所以某个清晨我醒来,
读到那则消息后说,
00:46
"Oh, my gosh, they're talking about me.
That's me who's doing that."
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“哦,天哪,他们在谈论的是我。
我正是这么做的人。”
00:50
And then I thought: wait a minute.
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然后我想:等等。
00:52
If things continue,
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如果事情继续发展下去,
00:55
then maybe not only will the start-ups
in which we invest struggle
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那么不仅仅是那些我们所投资的
初创企业会陷入泥淖,
01:00
because there won't be people to have jobs
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因为将来人类会失业,
01:03
to pay for the things
that they make and buy them,
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无力购买它们制造的产品,
01:06
but our economy and society
might struggle, too.
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而且我们的经济和社会也会陷入泥淖。
我本该坐在这里告诉你
01:09
And look, I should be the guy
who sits here and tells you,
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01:12
"Everything is going to be fine.
It's all going to work out great.
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“一切都会顺利的。
所有问题最后都会解决。
看,当初也引进了ATM机,
01:15
Hey, when they introduced the ATM machine,
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01:17
years later, there's more
tellers in banks."
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几年后,银行里的出纳员反而变多了。”
01:19
It's true.
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这是事实。
01:20
And yet, when I looked at it, I thought,
"This is going to accelerate.
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但是,当我仔细审视后,
想到,“这个趋势会加速,
01:24
And if it does accelerate,
there's a chance the center doesn't hold."
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而一旦它加速发展了,
控制中心就有把握不住的可能。”
01:27
But I figured somebody must know
the answer to this;
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但是我想到某些人
一定知道这个问题的解决办法。
因为好点子真是太多了。
01:29
there are so many ideas out there.
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我读了所有的相关书籍,
也参加了不少相关会议,
01:31
And I read all the books,
and I went to the conferences,
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01:34
and at one point, we counted more than
100 efforts to study the future of work.
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我们列举出了100多种
研究职业未来的方式。
01:40
And it was a frustrating experience,
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那是一次令人沮丧的经历,
01:43
because I'd hear the same back-and-forth
over and over again:
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因为我已经把相同的言论
反反复复听了无数遍了:
01:47
"The robots are coming!"
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“机器人就要来了!”
01:49
And then somebody else would say,
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然后某个人会说,
01:50
"Oh, don't worry about that, they've
always said that and it turns out OK."
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“哦,别担心,他们一直都说
这会有一个好结果。”
然后另一个人会说,
01:54
Then somebody else would say,
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“无论如何,这事关工作的意义啊。”
01:55
"Well, it's really about the meaning
of your job, anyway."
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然后每个人都会耸耸肩,
离席去喝一杯。
01:58
And then everybody would shrug
and go off and have a drink.
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这感觉就像这场讨论中的
歌舞伎表演中心,
02:01
And it felt like there was this
Kabuki theater of this discussion,
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在这个问题上没有人在与其他人交流。
02:04
where nobody was talking to each other.
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很多在技术领域与我共事的人
02:06
And many of the people that I knew
and worked with in the technology world
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并不与政策决定者交流;
02:09
were not speaking to policy makers;
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政策决定者也不会与他们对话。
02:11
the policy makers
were not speaking to them.
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我们与一个叫“New America"的
无党派非政府智囊团结为伙伴
02:13
And so we partnered with a nonpartisan
think tank NGO called New America
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02:17
to study this issue.
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来研究这个问题。
02:19
And we brought together a group of people,
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我们召集了一大群人,
02:21
including an AI czar
at a technology company
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包括一位来自技术公司的
人工智能主管,
一位电子游戏开发者,
02:25
and a video game designer
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02:26
and a heartland conservative
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一位忠实的保守主义者,
02:28
and a Wall Street investor
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一位华尔街风险投资人,
02:29
and a socialist magazine editor --
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和一位社会党的报刊编辑……
02:31
literally, all in the same room;
it was occasionally awkward --
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事实上,当我们共处一室时,
气氛有时确实尴尬,
02:34
to try to figure out
what is it that will happen here.
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尤其当我们都想弄明白
究竟将会发生什么时。
02:37
The question we asked was simple.
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我们提出的问题很简单,
02:40
It was: What is the effect of technology
on work going to be?
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就是:技术将为工作带来怎样的影响?
02:44
And we looked out 10 to 20 years,
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我们放眼于将来的10到20年,
02:45
because we wanted to look out far enough
that there could be real change,
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希望那个时候会出现一些真实的改变,
但是很快我们不再讨论
心灵传送或诸如此类的事情,
02:49
but soon enough that we weren't talking
about teleportation or anything like that.
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02:53
And we recognized --
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我们意识到,
02:54
and I think every year
we're reminded of this in the world --
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而且我想,我们也一直
被这个世界提醒,
02:57
that predicting what's
going to happen is hard.
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预言未发生的事是困难的。
02:59
So instead of predicting,
there are other things you can do.
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所以除了预知未来,
我们还有其它的事可做。
03:02
You can try to imagine
alternate possible futures,
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我们可以尝试构想
其它可能的未来,
03:05
which is what we did.
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这也正是我们所做的。
03:06
We did a scenario-planning exercise,
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我们做了一个情境-计划的模拟演练,
03:08
and we imagined cases
where no job is safe.
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我们想象
每一个职业都有危机的情况。
03:11
We imagined cases where every job is safe.
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我们也想象
每一个职业都是安全的情况。
03:14
And we imagined every
distinct possibility we could.
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我们尽可能想象出
每一种独特的可能性。
03:18
And the result, which really surprised us,
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而结果让我们十分惊讶,
03:22
was when you think through those futures
and you think what should we do,
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当我们深入思考这些可能的未来
并思考我们应该做些什么时,
03:25
the answers about what we should do
actually turn out to be the same,
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答案事实上却是相同的,
03:29
no matter what happens.
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无论发生了什么。
03:31
And the irony of looking out
10 to 20 years into the future is,
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我们在展望未来10到20年时,
感到讽刺的是
03:35
you realize that the things
we want to act on
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我们意识到我们采取行动的事物
03:37
are actually already happening right now.
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实际上已经在当下发生着。
03:39
The automation is right now,
the future is right now.
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自动化就在当下,
未来就在今天。
03:42
BF: So what does that mean,
and what does that tell us?
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BF:那是什么意思,
这又给我们什么启示呢?
如果未来就是当下,
我们应该做的是什么?
03:45
If the future is now, what is it
that we should be doing,
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03:47
and what should we be thinking about?
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我们应该思考的是什么?
03:49
RB: We have to understand
the problem first.
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RB:我们首先必须要了解这个问题。
03:51
And so the data are that as the economy
becomes more productive
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数据显示经济发展正在变得更高效,
03:55
and individual workers
become more productive,
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每一个独立的劳动力
也正在变得更加多产,
03:57
their wages haven't risen.
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但是他们的工资并没有增涨。
03:59
If you look at the proportion
of prime working-age men,
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如果你看到青壮年劳力所占比例,
04:02
in the United States at least,
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至少拿美国来说,
将现在的比例与1960年相比,
04:04
who work now versus in 1960,
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04:07
we have three times
as many men not working.
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我们现在有相当于之前三倍的
劳动力不在工作。
04:10
And then you hear the stories.
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你也一定听说了那些故事。
04:11
I sat down with a group
of Walmart workers and said,
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我和一群沃尔玛的员工说:
04:14
"What do you think about this cashier,
this futuristic self-checkout thing?"
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“你们觉得人工智能收银员怎么样?
就是那个未来主义的自助购物设备?”
04:17
They said, "That's nice, but have
you heard about the cash recycler?
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他们说:“那很好,
但是你听说过现金回收机吗?
那是一个现在正被安装的机器,
04:21
That's a machine that's being
installed right now,
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却正在将两份工作从沃尔玛彻底清除。“
04:23
and is eliminating two jobs
at every Walmart right now."
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所以我们就想:“天哪,
我们还不了解这种问题。”
04:26
And so we just thought, "Geez. We don't
understand the problem."
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所以我们看着那些
曾被我们排除在外的声音,
04:29
And so we looked at the voices
that were the ones that were excluded,
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04:32
which is all of the people
affected by this change.
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都是由深受这转变影响的人们发出的。
04:35
And we decided to listen to them,
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我们决定听听他们的心声,
04:36
sort of "automation and its discontents."
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类似于“自动化和它带来的不满情绪”。
04:38
And I've spent the last
couple of years doing that.
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过去的几年,我们一直在做这件事。
我曾去到弗林特,密歇根
和俄亥俄州的扬斯敦,
04:41
I've been to Flint, Michigan,
and Youngstown, Ohio,
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04:43
talking about entrepreneurs,
trying to make it work
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和企业家们交谈,试图
在截然不同的环境中推进这项研究,
从纽约到旧金山,
04:46
in a very different environment
from New York or San Francisco
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甚至伦敦或东京。
04:49
or London or Tokyo.
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04:50
I've been to prisons twice
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我曾去过监狱两次,
04:52
to talk to inmates about
their jobs after they leave.
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去与那些犯人谈论
他们出狱后的工作。
04:55
I've sat down with truck drivers
to ask them about the self-driving truck,
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我也曾与卡车司机们促膝谈心,
询问他们对于无人驾驶卡车的看法,
04:58
with people who, in addition
to their full-time job,
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还有那些在全职工作之外,
05:01
care for an aging relative.
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正照料着他们年迈亲人的人。
05:03
And when you talk to people,
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当你与他们交谈的时候,
05:04
there were two themes
that came out loud and clear.
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他们提出的两个主旨响亮而明确。
05:08
The first one was that people
are less looking for more money
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第一个是人们很少担心薪水太低,
05:13
or get out of the fear
of the robot taking their job,
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因被机器人夺去工作而感到恐惧,
05:16
and they just want something stable.
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他们想要的只是一些稳定的东西。
05:18
They want something predictable.
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他们想要些可以预测的东西。
05:19
So if you survey people and ask them
what they want out of work,
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所以如果你在人群中做调查,
问他们想从工作中获得什么,
05:23
for everybody who makes
less than 150,000 dollars a year,
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对于每一个年薪少于
15万美元的人来说,
05:27
they'll take a more stable
and secure income, on average,
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他们一般会倾向于一份
稳定有保障的平均薪酬,
05:30
over earning more money.
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而不是赚取更多的钱。
05:32
And if you think about the fact that
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如果你考虑到一个事实,
05:34
not only for all of the people
across the earth who don't earn a living,
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就是不仅对全世界所有
不能维持温饱的人们而言,
就算那些能够维持温饱的人,
05:38
but for those who do,
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05:39
the vast majority earn a different
amount from month to month
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绝大多数人每月的薪酬
都不固定,或者生活中
05:42
and have an instability,
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存在一些不稳定因素,
05:43
all of a sudden you realize,
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突然间你意识到,
05:44
"Wait a minute. We have
a real problem on our hands."
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“等一等。现在我们手上
确实有了一个棘手的问题。”
而他们会说的第二件事,
我们也花了很久去理解,
05:47
And the second thing they say,
which took us a longer time to understand,
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05:51
is they say they want dignity.
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就是他们说他们想要尊严。
05:53
And that concept
of self-worth through work
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而这种通过工作获取自我价值的观念
在我们的谈话中连续不断地浮现。
05:59
emerged again and again and again
in our conversations.
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06:01
BF: So, I certainly
appreciate this answer.
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BF:这么说吧,
虽然我真的很欣赏这个答案。
06:04
But you can't eat dignity,
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但是尊严不能用来果腹,
06:06
you can't clothe your children
with self-esteem.
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你也不能让你的孩子们用自尊蔽体。
06:09
So, what is that, how do you reconcile --
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所以你如何协调这两者间的关系——
06:12
what does dignity mean,
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尊严究竟指什么,
06:14
and what is the relationship
between dignity and stability?
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而尊严和稳定性之间的关系又是什么?
06:18
RB: You can't eat dignity.
You need stability first.
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RB:尊严确实不能用来果腹。
首先你需要稳定。
06:20
And the good news is,
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好的方面是,
06:21
many of the conversations
that are happening right now
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许多现在正在进行的讨论
06:24
are about how we solve that.
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都是关于如何解决这个问题的。
06:26
You know, I'm a proponent
of studying guaranteed income,
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我是一个研究有保障收入的坚决拥护者,
06:30
as one example,
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举一个例子,
06:31
conversations about how
health care gets provided
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关于如何提供健康护理服务的讨论
06:33
and other benefits.
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和其它有益的讨论。
06:35
Those conversations are happening,
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这些讨论都在进行中,
06:36
and we're at a time
where we must figure that out.
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而我们现在正
亟需理清这些问题。
06:39
It is the crisis of our era.
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这是我们时代的危机。
06:40
And my point of view
after talking to people
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而在跟人们谈论之后,我的观点
06:43
is that we may do that,
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是我们或许可以做到这些,
06:45
and it still might not be enough.
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当然这些可能还不够。
06:47
Because what we need to do
from the beginning is understand
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因为从一开始
我们需要做的就是去理解
06:50
what is it about work
that gives people dignity,
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究竟是工作的哪一方面
给予了人们尊严,
06:52
so they can live the lives
that they want to live.
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让我们能过上想要的生活。
06:55
And so that concept of dignity is ...
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所以尊严的概念是——
这很难真正弄明白,
07:00
it's difficult to get your hands around,
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07:01
because when many people hear it --
especially, to be honest, rich people --
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因为许多人听到它时——
不瞒你说,尤其是富有的人——
他们听到的是“意义“。
07:05
they hear "meaning."
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他们听到的是
“我的工作对我很重要“。
07:06
They hear "My work is important to me."
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另外,如果你在民众中调查,问他们
07:08
And again, if you survey people
and you ask them,
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“你的工作对你来说有重要意义这点,
对你来说有多重要?”
07:12
"How important is it to you
that your work be important to you?"
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07:15
only people who make
150,000 dollars a year or more
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只有那些每年能挣
至少15万美元的人
07:19
say that it is important to them
that their work be important.
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会说工作重要这件事对他们来说很重要。
07:24
BF: Meaning, meaningful?
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BF: 你的意思是说,有意义吗?
07:25
RB: Just defined as,
"Is your work important to you?"
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RB:就这么下定义吧,
“工作对你来说重要吗?”
07:29
Whatever somebody took that to mean.
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随便被问者怎么理解这句话的意思吧。
07:31
And yet, of course dignity is essential.
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话说回来,尊严依然是至关重要的。
07:33
We talked to truck drivers who said,
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曾与我们交谈过的卡车司机说,
07:35
"I saw my cousin drive, and I got
on the open road and it was amazing.
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“我曾看到我的表兄开车,然后当我有机会
开车在路上飞驰的时候,那感觉太棒了。
07:39
And I started making more money
than people who went to college."
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之后我开始比那些
上了大学的学生挣更多的钱。"
07:42
Then they'd get to the end
of their thought and say something like,
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然后在他们思绪的末尾,
他们开始说,诸如:
07:45
"People need their fruits
and vegetables in the morning,
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“人们在清晨需要水果和蔬菜,
而我正是那个
把这些东西送给他们的人。”
07:48
and I'm the guy who gets it to them."
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我们曾经和一个在工作之外
还要照顾自己阿姨的人交谈。
07:50
We talked to somebody who, in addition
to his job, was caring for his aunt.
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07:53
He was making plenty of money.
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他当时有着不错的收入。
有一次我们就问他,
07:55
At one point we just asked,
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“你为什么要自己照料你的阿姨?
你难道不能花钱雇别人来吗?”
07:56
"What is it about caring for your aunt?
Can't you just pay somebody to do it?"
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08:00
He said, "My aunt doesn't want
somebody we pay for.
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他说,“我阿姨不想
让我们花钱雇人照顾她。
08:03
My aunt wants me."
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她想要的是我。”
08:04
So there was this concept there
of being needed.
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所以这就是“被需要”的概念。
08:08
If you study the word
"dignity," it's fascinating.
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如果你仔细研究这个词“尊严”,
它其实很有趣。
08:10
It's one of the oldest words
in the English language, from antiquity.
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它是最古老的英文单词之一,
算是老古董了。
而它其实有两重含义:
08:14
And it has two meanings:
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一个是自我价值,
08:15
one is self-worth,
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1154
08:16
and the other is that something
is suitable, it's fitting,
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4227
而另一个则是一些合适的,
适合你的东西。
08:20
meaning that you're part
of something greater than yourself,
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意味着你是比你更宏大的
某个东西的一部分,
08:23
and it connects to some broader whole.
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而这一部分将你
与一个更广阔的整体相连。
08:25
In other words, that you're needed.
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换句话说,那就是你被需要。
BF:那么你如何回答这个问题:
08:27
BF: So how do you answer this question,
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按这个概念,
如果我们不付工资给教师,
08:29
this concept that we don't pay teachers,
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2050
08:31
and we don't pay eldercare workers,
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不花钱请老年疗养师,
08:33
and we don't pay people
who really care for people
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也不付工资给那些必需的看护者,
08:36
and are needed, enough?
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这就够了吗?
08:38
RB: Well, the good news is,
people are finally asking the question.
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RB:好的方面就是
人们终于在问这个问题了。
08:42
So as AI investors,
we often get phone calls
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2303
作为人工智能投资者,
我们经常接到
08:44
from foundations or CEOs
and boardrooms saying,
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从基金会,首席执行官
和董事会打来的电话说,
08:47
"What do we do about this?"
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“我们该怎么办?”
08:48
And they used to be asking,
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他们过去常问,
08:49
"What do we do about
introducing automation?"
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2112
“我们该怎么引进自动化?”
08:51
And now they're asking,
"What do we do about self-worth?"
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而现在他们在问,
”我们该怎么体现自我价值?“
08:54
And they know that the employees
who work for them
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而他们知道
为他们工作的雇员中
08:57
who have a spouse who cares for somebody,
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2246
谁有配偶,
谁又有亲人需要照顾,
08:59
that dignity is essential
to their ability to just do their job.
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对这些人来说,尊严是
他们能够完成工作的必要条件。
09:02
I think there's two kinds of answers:
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我认为对这个问题有两个答案:
09:04
there's the money side
of just making your life work.
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2526
一个是从仅仅维持生计的角度。
09:07
That's stability. You need to eat.
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那是稳定性。你需要吃饭。
09:09
And then you think about
our culture more broadly,
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2337
然后你从更广的视角
仔细考虑我们的社会文化,
你会问:我们把什么样的人称作英雄?
09:12
and you ask: Who do we make into heroes?
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09:14
And, you know, what I want
is to see the magazine cover
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我想在杂志封面上看到的
09:19
that is the person
who is the heroic caregiver.
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2752
是英雄守护者式的人物。
09:22
Or the Netflix series
that dramatizes the person
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2730
或者是Netflix连续剧
戏剧化了的人物,
让万物照它现有的状态运转,
从而让我们能够安居乐业。
09:25
who makes all of our other lives work
so we can do the things we do.
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09:28
Let's make heroes out of those people.
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让我们按那些人来想象英雄吧。
我会非常喜欢这样的Netflix节目。
09:30
That's the Netflix show
that I would binge.
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2033
09:32
And we've had chroniclers
of this before --
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2279
而我们曾经有过
这样的年代史编者——
09:34
Studs Terkel,
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1214
Studs Terkel,
09:35
the oral history of the working
experience in the United States.
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3706
美国工作经历的口述史。
09:39
And what we need is the experience
of needing one another
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3152
而我们所需要的就是这样
互相依赖的经历,
09:42
and being connected to each other.
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1625
彼此之间互相联系。
09:44
Maybe that's the answer
for how we all fit as a society.
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3040
或许这就是我们该如何以
一个社会的形态相处的答案。
09:47
And the thought exercise, to me, is:
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1722
对于我来说,这个思维训练是:
09:49
if you were to go back 100 years
and have people --
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2578
如果我们倒回100年前见到——
09:51
my grandparents, great-grandparents,
a tailor, worked in a mine --
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3771
我的祖父母,曾祖父母,
可能是裁缝,或者矿工——
09:55
they look at what all of us do
for a living and say, "That's not work."
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他们了解了我们谋生的工作,
会说,“这可不是工作。”
09:59
We sit there and type and talk,
and there's no danger of getting hurt.
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3769
我们坐在那儿打字,聊天,
没有受伤的危险。
10:03
And my guess is that if you were
to imagine 100 years from now,
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3491
而我的猜测是,如果
想象一下一百年以后的未来,
10:07
we'll still be doing things
for each other.
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2012
我们仍然会为彼此做事。
我们依然相互需要。
10:09
We'll still need one another.
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10:10
And we just will think of it as work.
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2007
而我们也还会把这看成是工作。
10:12
The entire thing I'm trying to say
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1674
总的来说,我认为
10:14
is that dignity should not
just be about having a job.
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2873
尊严不应该仅仅意味着有一份工作。
10:17
Because if you say
you need a job to have dignity,
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2857
因为如果你和很多人都觉得
需要一份工作来获得尊严,
10:20
which many people say,
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1444
10:21
the second you say that,
you say to all the parents
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那么同时也相当于让所有的父母,
10:24
and all the teachers
and all the caregivers
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所有的教师和所有的看护者
10:26
that all of a sudden,
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开始认识到,
10:27
because they're not being paid
for what they're doing,
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2547
他们所从事的无偿工作
10:30
it somehow lacks this
essential human quality.
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使得他们缺少了这个重要的品质。
10:32
To me, that's the great
puzzle of our time:
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对我来说,
这是我们时代的巨大谜团:
我们是否能够找到
保障终生稳定的方法,
10:35
Can we figure out how to provide
that stability throughout life,
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3111
10:38
and then can we figure out
how to create an inclusive,
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是否能学会怎么创造一个包容的,
10:40
not just racially, gender,
but multigenerationally inclusive --
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4267
不仅仅是在种族,性别,
更是在代际之间的包容的——
10:44
I mean, every different
human experience included --
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我是说每一种不同的
人生经历都能被包容——
10:49
in this way of understanding
how we can be needed by one another.
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能用这种方式去理解
我们如何能被彼此需要。
10:53
BF: Thank you.
RB: Thank you.
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BF:谢谢。
RB:谢谢。
10:54
BF: Thank you very much
for your participation.
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BF:非常感谢你的分享。
10:56
(Applause)
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(掌声)
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