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譯者: Melody Tang
審譯者: SF Huang
00:12
Bryn Freedman: You're a guy whose company
funds these AI programs and invests.
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BF:你的公司資助這些
人工智慧專案和投資。
00:18
So why should we trust you
to not have a bias
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所以我們如何相信你不會帶著偏見
00:23
and tell us something really useful
for the rest of us
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告訴我們這些很受用的
00:26
about the future of work?
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有關未來的工作前景?
RB:是的,我是。
00:29
Roy Bahat: Yes, I am.
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00:30
And when you wake up in the morning
and you read the newspaper
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當你早晨醒來看到新聞說:
00:33
and it says, "The robots are coming,
they may take all our jobs,"
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「機器人即將來臨,
可能會取代我們所有人的工作,」
身為一位專注在未來工作的
初創企業投資人,
00:37
as a start-up investor
focused on the future of work,
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00:39
our fund was the first one to say
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我們的基金是最先
00:41
artificial intelligence
should be a focus for us.
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聚焦在人工智慧上的。
00:44
So I woke up one morning
and read that and said,
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所以我某天醒來看到那則新聞便說:
「哦,我的天,他們說的是我。
那是我正在做的事。」
00:46
"Oh, my gosh, they're talking about me.
That's me who's doing that."
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00:50
And then I thought: wait a minute.
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然後我想:等等。
00:52
If things continue,
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如果事情繼續發展的話,
00:55
then maybe not only will the start-ups
in which we invest struggle
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或許不只我們投資的
初創公司會陷入危機,
01:00
because there won't be people to have jobs
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因為就不會有人有工作
01:03
to pay for the things
that they make and buy them,
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來付錢買機器人做的東西,
01:06
but our economy and society
might struggle, too.
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我們的經濟和社會可能也會岌岌可危。
01:09
And look, I should be the guy
who sits here and tells you,
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而我應該是坐在這裡告訴你說:
01:12
"Everything is going to be fine.
It's all going to work out great.
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「一切都不會有問題。
所以的問題都會迎刃而解。
嘿,當引進自動櫃員機時,
01:15
Hey, when they introduced the ATM machine,
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幾年過後,銀行的櫃員比以前多。」
01:17
years later, there's more
tellers in banks."
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01:19
It's true.
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這是真的。
01:20
And yet, when I looked at it, I thought,
"This is going to accelerate.
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然而,當我看著它,我心想,
「這會加速發展。
01:24
And if it does accelerate,
there's a chance the center doesn't hold."
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一旦它加速發展了,
中心可能就無法掌控住。」
但我認為有人必定知道
這個問題的答案;
01:27
But I figured somebody must know
the answer to this;
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許多人有很棒的點子。
01:29
there are so many ideas out there.
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我經常看書,也常去參加會議,
01:31
And I read all the books,
and I went to the conferences,
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01:34
and at one point, we counted more than
100 efforts to study the future of work.
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有一次我們數算了,有超過
100 個有關未來工作的研究。
01:40
And it was a frustrating experience,
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這個經驗讓人覺得很挫敗,
01:43
because I'd hear the same back-and-forth
over and over again:
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因為我來回一遍又一遍地
聽到同樣的話:
01:47
"The robots are coming!"
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「機器人即將來臨!」
01:49
And then somebody else would say,
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然後,其他人說:
01:50
"Oh, don't worry about that, they've
always said that and it turns out OK."
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「哦,不用擔心,他們
一直都這麼說,結果也都沒事。」
然後,另外一個人說,
01:54
Then somebody else would say,
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「嗯,其實你工作
賦予你的意義才重要。」
01:55
"Well, it's really about the meaning
of your job, anyway."
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然後每個人就聳聳肩離開喝酒去了。
01:58
And then everybody would shrug
and go off and have a drink.
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這些話感覺就像是
在歌舞伎劇院裡的討論,
02:01
And it felt like there was this
Kabuki theater of this discussion,
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每個人各說各話,沒有交流。
02:04
where nobody was talking to each other.
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很多我認識的在科技領域工作的人,
02:06
And many of the people that I knew
and worked with in the technology world
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他們不與政策制定者對話;
02:09
were not speaking to policy makers;
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政策制定者也不和這些人討論。
02:11
the policy makers
were not speaking to them.
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所以我們與名為「新美國」的
無黨派非政府組織的智庫合作,
02:13
And so we partnered with a nonpartisan
think tank NGO called New America
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02:17
to study this issue.
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來研究這個議題。
02:19
And we brought together a group of people,
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我們聚集了一群人,
02:21
including an AI czar
at a technology company
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包括一家科技公司的人工智慧巨擘,
02:25
and a video game designer
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一位電子遊戲設計師,
02:26
and a heartland conservative
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一位傳統的保守者,
02:28
and a Wall Street investor
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一位華爾街投資人,
02:29
and a socialist magazine editor --
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和社會主義雜誌的編輯——
02:31
literally, all in the same room;
it was occasionally awkward --
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把他們都放在同一個房間裡;
偶爾會很尷尬——
02:34
to try to figure out
what is it that will happen here.
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試圖找出未來會如何變化。
02:37
The question we asked was simple.
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我們要問的問題很簡單。
02:40
It was: What is the effect of technology
on work going to be?
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那就是:科技對工作的影響
將會是什麼?
02:44
And we looked out 10 to 20 years,
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我們探討 10 到 20 年後的情形,
02:45
because we wanted to look out far enough
that there could be real change,
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因為我們要看到在夠遠的未來
可能會發生的真正變化,
但很快地我們就不探討
心靈傳輸或類似的事情。
02:49
but soon enough that we weren't talking
about teleportation or anything like that.
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我們知道——
02:53
And we recognized --
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02:54
and I think every year
we're reminded of this in the world --
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我想身處在這世界上
每年都會被提醒到——
02:57
that predicting what's
going to happen is hard.
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預測未來之事是很困難的。
02:59
So instead of predicting,
there are other things you can do.
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不去預測未來,
你可以做其他事情。
03:02
You can try to imagine
alternate possible futures,
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你可以試著去想像其他可能的未來,
03:05
which is what we did.
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這就是我們所做的。
03:06
We did a scenario-planning exercise,
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我們做了一個情景規劃練習。
03:08
and we imagined cases
where no job is safe.
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我們想像沒有一個工作是安全的情況。
03:11
We imagined cases where every job is safe.
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我們想像每個工作都是安全的情況。
03:14
And we imagined every
distinct possibility we could.
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我們想像所有不同的可能性。
03:18
And the result, which really surprised us,
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結果是,出乎我們的意料之外,
03:22
was when you think through those futures
and you think what should we do,
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當你透徹地思考這些未來,
以及你認為我們該怎麼做,
03:25
the answers about what we should do
actually turn out to be the same,
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結果我們應該做什麼的答案
都是一樣的,
03:29
no matter what happens.
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無論發生了什麼。
03:31
And the irony of looking out
10 to 20 years into the future is,
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諷刺的是展望
10 到 20 年後的未來,
03:35
you realize that the things
we want to act on
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你發現我們想要採取的行動
03:37
are actually already happening right now.
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其實現在已經在發生了。
03:39
The automation is right now,
the future is right now.
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現在已經在自動化,
未來就在眼前。
03:42
BF: So what does that mean,
and what does that tell us?
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BF:那是什麼意思,
那告訴了我們什麼?
如果現在是未來,
我們應該做什麼,
03:45
If the future is now, what is it
that we should be doing,
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03:47
and what should we be thinking about?
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以及我們應該考慮什麼呢?
03:49
RB: We have to understand
the problem first.
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RB:首先我們必須了解問題。
03:51
And so the data are that as the economy
becomes more productive
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數據顯示的是
當經濟變得更具生產力,
03:55
and individual workers
become more productive,
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每一位工作者變得更有效率,
03:57
their wages haven't risen.
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但他們的工資沒有上漲。
03:59
If you look at the proportion
of prime working-age men,
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如果你看一下主要工作男性的比例,
04:02
in the United States at least,
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至少在美國,
04:04
who work now versus in 1960,
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與 1960 年代工作的人比較,
04:07
we have three times
as many men not working.
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我們有三倍的男人沒在工作。
04:10
And then you hear the stories.
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然後你會聽到他們的故事。
04:11
I sat down with a group
of Walmart workers and said,
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我與一群沃爾瑪的員工交談,我說:
你認為這個能讓你
自助結帳的機器如何?
04:14
"What do you think about this cashier,
this futuristic self-checkout thing?"
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他們說:「這很好,
但你有聽說過現金回收機嗎?」
04:17
They said, "That's nice, but have
you heard about the cash recycler?
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那是現在正在安裝中的機器,
04:21
That's a machine that's being
installed right now,
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每一台可以取代兩個
在沃爾瑪賣場工作的人。」
04:23
and is eliminating two jobs
at every Walmart right now."
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所以我們只是想,
「天呀。我們沒有了解到問題。」
04:26
And so we just thought, "Geez. We don't
understand the problem."
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04:29
And so we looked at the voices
that were the ones that were excluded,
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所以我們去找那些被排除在外的聲音,
04:32
which is all of the people
affected by this change.
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那些人是受到這些變化影響的人。
04:35
And we decided to listen to them,
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我們決定去聽他們的心聲,
04:36
sort of "automation and its discontents."
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像是「自動化和它所造成的不滿。」
04:38
And I've spent the last
couple of years doing that.
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我過去幾年都在這麼做。
我去過密歇根州的弗林特,
和俄亥俄州的揚斯敦,
04:41
I've been to Flint, Michigan,
and Youngstown, Ohio,
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04:43
talking about entrepreneurs,
trying to make it work
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和企業家討論,
試圖讓它在極不同的環境
04:46
in a very different environment
from New York or San Francisco
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如紐約、舊金山
04:49
or London or Tokyo.
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到倫敦、東京都能夠順利完成。
04:50
I've been to prisons twice
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我去過監獄兩次,
04:52
to talk to inmates about
their jobs after they leave.
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和囚犯討論他們離開監獄後的工作。
04:55
I've sat down with truck drivers
to ask them about the self-driving truck,
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我和卡車司機坐下來,
問他們對於自動駕駛卡車的看法,
04:58
with people who, in addition
to their full-time job,
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我與一些在全職工作外
05:01
care for an aging relative.
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也照顧年老親人的人談話。
05:03
And when you talk to people,
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當你與人們談話後,
05:04
there were two themes
that came out loud and clear.
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有兩個主題被搬上檯面且非常明確。
05:08
The first one was that people
are less looking for more money
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第一是人們較不追求更多的金錢,
05:13
or get out of the fear
of the robot taking their job,
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或較不害怕機器人取代他們的工作,
05:16
and they just want something stable.
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他們只是希望比較穩定的工作。
05:18
They want something predictable.
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他們想要可預測的東西。
05:19
So if you survey people and ask them
what they want out of work,
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所以,如果你調查詢問他們
想要在工作得到什麼,
05:23
for everybody who makes
less than 150,000 dollars a year,
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每個年薪在 15 萬以下的人,
05:27
they'll take a more stable
and secure income, on average,
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平均來說,他們會接受收入
比較穩定和安全的工作,
05:30
over earning more money.
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而不是收入更高的工作。
05:32
And if you think about the fact that
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如果你考慮一下這個事實:
05:34
not only for all of the people
across the earth who don't earn a living,
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不僅是地球上所有沒有在工作的人,
05:38
but for those who do,
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而是那些在工作的人,
05:39
the vast majority earn a different
amount from month to month
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絕大多數人每月拿到不同的金額,
05:42
and have an instability,
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很不穩定,
05:43
all of a sudden you realize,
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你突然意識到,
05:44
"Wait a minute. We have
a real problem on our hands."
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「等一下。
我們手上有個真正的問題。」
他們說的第二件事,
我們花了比較長的時間才理解。
05:47
And the second thing they say,
which took us a longer time to understand,
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05:51
is they say they want dignity.
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那就是說他們要有尊嚴。
05:53
And that concept
of self-worth through work
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而那個通過工作實現自我價值的概念
05:59
emerged again and again and again
in our conversations.
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一次又一次地出現在我們的談話中。
06:01
BF: So, I certainly
appreciate this answer.
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BF:謝謝你告訴我們這個答案。
06:04
But you can't eat dignity,
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但你不能靠尊嚴吃飯,
06:06
you can't clothe your children
with self-esteem.
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你不能用自尊心
買衣服給你的孩子穿。
06:09
So, what is that, how do you reconcile --
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那麼,那是什麼,你如何調和——
06:12
what does dignity mean,
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尊嚴意味著什麼,
06:14
and what is the relationship
between dignity and stability?
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尊嚴和穩定之間的關係是什麼?
06:18
RB: You can't eat dignity.
You need stability first.
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RB:你不能靠尊嚴吃飯。
你首先需要穩定。
06:20
And the good news is,
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好消息是,
06:21
many of the conversations
that are happening right now
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很多大家在談論的是
06:24
are about how we solve that.
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關於我們如何解決這個問題。
06:26
You know, I'm a proponent
of studying guaranteed income,
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你知道,我是研究保證收入的支持者,
06:30
as one example,
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那是一個例子,
06:31
conversations about how
health care gets provided
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另外也有如有關如何提供
醫療保健和其他福利的討論。
06:33
and other benefits.
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06:35
Those conversations are happening,
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這些討論都正在發生,
06:36
and we're at a time
where we must figure that out.
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我們正處於必須解決
這些問題的關鍵時刻。
06:39
It is the crisis of our era.
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這是我們時代的危機。
06:40
And my point of view
after talking to people
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在和許多人對話後,我的觀點是
06:43
is that we may do that,
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即使我們那麼做,
06:45
and it still might not be enough.
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可能還不夠。
06:47
Because what we need to do
from the beginning is understand
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因為我們從一開始就必須了解的是
什麼是能使人們得到尊嚴的工作,
06:50
what is it about work
that gives people dignity,
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06:52
so they can live the lives
that they want to live.
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讓他們可以過他們想過的日子。
06:55
And so that concept of dignity is ...
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所以尊嚴的概念就是…...
07:00
it's difficult to get your hands around,
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你很難了解清楚,
07:01
because when many people hear it --
especially, to be honest, rich people --
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因為當很多人聽到它時——
特別是,說實話,有錢人——
他們聽到的是「意義。」
07:05
they hear "meaning."
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他們聽到「我的工作對我很重要。」
07:06
They hear "My work is important to me."
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如果你做調查,你問他們,
07:08
And again, if you survey people
and you ask them,
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「『你的工作對你來說很重要』
這一點對你有多重要?」
07:12
"How important is it to you
that your work be important to you?"
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07:15
only people who make
150,000 dollars a year or more
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只有年薪在 15 萬美元以上的人說
07:19
say that it is important to them
that their work be important.
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「他們的工作很重要」
這點對他們來說很重要。
07:24
BF: Meaning, meaningful?
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BF:意思是有意義的?
07:25
RB: Just defined as,
"Is your work important to you?"
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RB:我們就是定義它為,
「你的工作對你很重要嗎?」
07:29
Whatever somebody took that to mean.
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不管大家認為是什麼意思。
07:31
And yet, of course dignity is essential.
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然而,尊嚴當然是必不可少的。
07:33
We talked to truck drivers who said,
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我們和卡車司機談話,他說:
07:35
"I saw my cousin drive, and I got
on the open road and it was amazing.
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「我曾看我的堂兄弟開卡車,
當我也開始開卡車時,覺得真棒。
07:39
And I started making more money
than people who went to college."
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我開始賺比上大學的人更多的錢。」
07:42
Then they'd get to the end
of their thought and say something like,
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然後他們談到他們最終的想法,說:
07:45
"People need their fruits
and vegetables in the morning,
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「人們早上需要吃水果和蔬菜,
而我是那個運送
蔬菜水果給他們的人。」
07:48
and I'm the guy who gets it to them."
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我們和一位除了做他的正職外,
也兼照顧他阿姨的人訪談。
07:50
We talked to somebody who, in addition
to his job, was caring for his aunt.
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07:53
He was making plenty of money.
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他的收入很高。
有一次我們就問他:
07:55
At one point we just asked,
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「你為什麼要照顧你的阿姨?
難道你不能花錢請別人去做嗎?」
07:56
"What is it about caring for your aunt?
Can't you just pay somebody to do it?"
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08:00
He said, "My aunt doesn't want
somebody we pay for.
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他說:「我的阿姨不要我們請的人。
08:03
My aunt wants me."
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我的阿姨要我。」
08:04
So there was this concept there
of being needed.
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那裡有「被需要」這個概念。
08:08
If you study the word
"dignity," it's fascinating.
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如果你研究「尊嚴」這個詞,
它很令人著迷。
08:10
It's one of the oldest words
in the English language, from antiquity.
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這是最古老的詞之一,
來自古代的英語。
它有兩個含義:
08:14
And it has two meanings:
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一個是自我價值,
08:15
one is self-worth,
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08:16
and the other is that something
is suitable, it's fitting,
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另一個是感覺很合適、恰如其分,
08:20
meaning that you're part
of something greater than yourself,
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意思是你屬於比自身
更偉大事物的一部分,
08:23
and it connects to some broader whole.
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而它連接到更宏偉的整體。
08:25
In other words, that you're needed.
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換句話說,你是被需要的。
BF:那你怎麼回答這個問題呢?
08:27
BF: So how do you answer this question,
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我們付給以下這些人太低的工資:
08:29
this concept that we don't pay teachers,
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08:31
and we don't pay eldercare workers,
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老師、老人照護員、
08:33
and we don't pay people
who really care for people
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真的關心他人的人,
08:36
and are needed, enough?
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而且是被需要的人。
08:38
RB: Well, the good news is,
people are finally asking the question.
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RB:嗯,好消息是,
人們終於提出了這個問題。
08:42
So as AI investors,
we often get phone calls
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身為人工智慧的投資者,
我們經常接到
08:44
from foundations or CEOs
and boardrooms saying,
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來自基金會或執行長
和董事會的電話,說:
08:47
"What do we do about this?"
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「我們該怎麼做呢?」
08:48
And they used to be asking,
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他們以前問的是:
08:49
"What do we do about
introducing automation?"
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2112
「我們該怎麼引入自動化呢?」
08:51
And now they're asking,
"What do we do about self-worth?"
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現在他們問:
「我們如何處理自我價值?」
08:54
And they know that the employees
who work for them
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他們知道他們的員工
08:57
who have a spouse who cares for somebody,
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誰有配偶要照顧某人,
08:59
that dignity is essential
to their ability to just do their job.
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他們知道尊嚴對於員工能夠勝任
他們的工作至關重要。
09:02
I think there's two kinds of answers:
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我想有兩種答案:
09:04
there's the money side
of just making your life work.
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一種是錢的方面,
就是工作讓你養家糊口。
09:07
That's stability. You need to eat.
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那就是穩定。 你需要能吃飽。
09:09
And then you think about
our culture more broadly,
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然後你將我們的文化想得更廣泛,
09:12
and you ask: Who do we make into heroes?
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你問:我們讓誰成為英雄?
09:14
And, you know, what I want
is to see the magazine cover
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我想要看到的是雜誌封面人物
09:19
that is the person
who is the heroic caregiver.
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呈現的是英雄般的照護工作者。
09:22
Or the Netflix series
that dramatizes the person
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或在 Netflix 系列的影片裡
那個讓所有東西都維持正常運作,
09:25
who makes all of our other lives work
so we can do the things we do.
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我們因而可以安居樂業的人。
09:28
Let's make heroes out of those people.
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我們讓這些人成為英雄吧。
09:30
That's the Netflix show
that I would binge.
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這是會讓我為之瘋狂的
Netflix 節目。
09:32
And we've had chroniclers
of this before --
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我們以前就有這種編年史家——
09:34
Studs Terkel,
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史都茨 · 特枸,
09:35
the oral history of the working
experience in the United States.
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他口述了在美國工作經驗的歷史。
09:39
And what we need is the experience
of needing one another
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我們需要的是彼此需要的經驗,
09:42
and being connected to each other.
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以及彼此連結的經驗。
09:44
Maybe that's the answer
for how we all fit as a society.
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也許這就是我們能
在社會相互依存的答案。
09:47
And the thought exercise, to me, is:
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對我來說,思考練習是:
09:49
if you were to go back 100 years
and have people --
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如果你回到 100 年前
並有人 ......
09:51
my grandparents, great-grandparents,
a tailor, worked in a mine --
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我的祖父母,曾祖父母,
一個裁縫,在礦坑工作 -
09:55
they look at what all of us do
for a living and say, "That's not work."
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當他們看到我們謀生的方式,
會說:「那不能算是工作。」
09:59
We sit there and type and talk,
and there's no danger of getting hurt.
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我們是坐在那裡打字和說話,
而且沒有受傷的危險。
10:03
And my guess is that if you were
to imagine 100 years from now,
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我的猜測是,如果你想像
100 年後的事,
10:07
we'll still be doing things
for each other.
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我們還會在為彼此做事。
我們仍然需要彼此。
10:09
We'll still need one another.
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10:10
And we just will think of it as work.
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2007
我們只會將它視為工作。
10:12
The entire thing I'm trying to say
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我想說的全部內容是
10:14
is that dignity should not
just be about having a job.
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尊嚴不應該只是有一份工作。
10:17
Because if you say
you need a job to have dignity,
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因為如果你說
你需要一份工作才會有尊嚴,
10:20
which many people say,
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很多人這麼說,
10:21
the second you say that,
you say to all the parents
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當你這麼說,
你就是在對所有的父母、
10:24
and all the teachers
and all the caregivers
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所有的老師和所有照護者說,
10:26
that all of a sudden,
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突然間,
10:27
because they're not being paid
for what they're doing,
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因為他們所做的事情
並沒有得到相對應的報酬,
10:30
it somehow lacks this
essential human quality.
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在某種程度上似乎就
缺乏了基本的人本素質。
10:32
To me, that's the great
puzzle of our time:
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對我來說,這是我們時代的大謎題:
10:35
Can we figure out how to provide
that stability throughout life,
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我們如何提供終身穩定的生活,
10:38
and then can we figure out
how to create an inclusive,
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我們如何能創造一個包容......
10:40
not just racially, gender,
but multigenerationally inclusive --
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不僅僅是對種族、性別,
還有多世代的包容——
10:44
I mean, every different
human experience included --
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我的意思是,包括
各種不同人類經驗——
10:49
in this way of understanding
how we can be needed by one another.
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以這種方式理解我們如何彼此需要。
BF:謝謝。
RB:謝謝。
10:53
BF: Thank you.
RB: Thank you.
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10:54
BF: Thank you very much
for your participation.
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BF:非常感謝你們的參與。
10:56
(Applause)
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(掌聲)
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