How the West can adapt to a rising Asia | Kishore Mahbubani

翻译人员: psjmz mz 校对人员: Yolanda Zhang

About 200 years ago,

大约两百年前，

Napoleon famously warned ...

拿破仑有一句非常著名的警示语，

He said, "Let China sleep,

他说，“让中国沉睡吧，

for when she wakes,

一旦她醒了，

she will shake the world."

她将震撼整个世界。”

Despite this early warning,

虽然有这个很早的警告，

the West chose to go to sleep

西方却恰恰在

at precisely the moment when China and India

中国、印度和其它 亚洲国家苏醒的时候

and the rest of Asia woke up.

选择沉睡。

Why did this happen?

为什么会发生这样的事情？

I'm here to address this great mystery.

我来为大家解开这个谜团。

Now what do I mean when I say the West chose to go to sleep?

当我说西方选择沉睡 是什么意思呢？

Here I'm referring to the failure of the West

这里我指的是，西方在

to react intelligently and thoughtfully

明智和周到地应对

to a new world environment that's obviously been created

亚洲回归时所建立的 一个新世界环境时

by the return of Asia.

所面临的失败。

As a friend of the West I feel anguished by this,

作为西方的朋友， 我对此感到极度痛苦，

so my goal to today is to try to help the West.

所以我今天的目的， 就是试着来帮助西方。

But I have to begin the story first

但是首先，我需要讲一个故事，

by talking about how the West actually woke up the rest of the world.

这个故事是讲述西方如何 使这个世界其他国家苏醒的。

Look at chart one.

请看图一。

From the year one through the year 1820,

从第一年，到1820年，

the two largest economies of the world were always those of China and India.

世界上两个最大的经济体 一直都是中国和印度。

So it's only in the last 200 years that Europe took off,

所以只有过去的200年 由欧洲获得了第一名，

followed by North America.

北美紧随其后。

So the past 200 years of world history

所以过去200年的世界历史

have therefore been a major historical aberration.

成为了一个重要的历史偏差。

All aberrations come to a natural end

所有的偏差最后终会 走到一个自然的结局，

and this is what we are seeing.

就是我们现在看到的。

And if you look at chart two,

如果你看一下图表二，

you'll see how quickly and how forcefully

你将会看到中国和印度将会

China and India are coming back.

多么快速和多么强有力地回归。

The big question is:

最大的问题是：

Who woke up China and India?

谁使中国和印度苏醒了？

The only honest answer to this question is that it was Western civilization

唯一坦诚的答案是，西方文明

that did so.

使它们苏醒了。

We all know that the West was the first to successfully modernize,

我们都知道西方是第一个 成功现代化

transform itself;

和转型的群体；

initially it used its power to colonize and dominate the world.

最初它使用自己的力量殖民统治世界。

But over time, it shared the gifts of Western wisdom

但是随着时间流逝， 它与世界上的其它国家

with the rest of the world.

分享了西方智慧的馈赠。

Let me add here that I have personally benefited

请让我在这里 加入一点我作为个人

from the sharing of Western wisdom.

收到的来自分享西方智慧的馈赠。

When I was born in Singapore,

当我出生在新加坡时，

which was then a poor British colony,

那时新加坡还只是 一个贫穷的英国殖民地。

in 1948,

在1948年，

I experienced, like three-quarters of humanity then,

就像世界上四分之三 的人类那样，

extreme poverty.

我也经历了极度的贫穷。

Indeed, on the first day when I went to school

事实上，当我在6岁

at the age of six,

第一次走进学校时，

I was put in a special feeding program

参加了一个特殊营养计划，

because I was technically undernourished.

因为我营养不良。

Now as you can see I'm overnourished.

现在你们看，我是营养过剩了。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

But the greatest gift I got was that of Western education.

但是我收到的 最棒的礼物是西方教育。

Now since I've personally traveled this journey

自从我自己进行了这场旅行，

from third world poverty to a comfortable middle-class existence,

从贫穷的第三世界国家 到一个舒适的中产阶级生活，

I can speak with great conviction about the impact of Western wisdom

我可以用坚定的口吻 来讲述西方智慧的影响

and the sharing of Western wisdom with the world.

和西方智慧与世界做的分享。

And one particular gift that the West shared

其中一个特别的馈赠是， 西方分享了

was the art of reasoning.

推理的艺术。

Now reasoning was not invented by the West.

推理不是西方创造的。

It's inherent in all cultures and civilizations.

它是所有的文化和文明与生俱来的。

Amartya Sen has described how deeply embedded it is in Indian civilization.

Amartya Sen描述过推理是 如何深深的扎根在印度文明里。

Yet there's also no doubt

但是无可否认的是，

that it was the West that carried the art of reasoning

是西方将推理的艺术

to a much higher level.

带向了更高的层次。

And through the Scientific Revolution,

并且通过科学革命，

the Enlightenment,

启蒙运动，

the Industrial Revolution,

工业革命，

the West really raised it forcefully,

西方强有力地崛起，

and equally importantly used this,

同样重要的是，

applied it to solve many major practical problems.

应用它来解决许多重要的实际问题。

And the West then shared this art of applied reasoning

然后西方与世界其他地区

with the rest of the world,

分享了应用推理的艺术，

and I can tell you that it led

并且我可以告诉你们，它引起了

to what I call three silent revolutions.

我所谓的“三次沉默革命“。

And as an Asian,

作为一名亚洲人，

I can describe how these silent revolutions transformed Asia.

我可以描述这些沉默革命 是如何让亚洲转变的。

The first revolution was in economics.

第一个革命是在经济方面。

The main reason why so many Asian economies,

亚洲经济体，包括社会主义国家在内

including the communist societies of China and Vietnam,

的中国和越南，

have performed so spectacularly well in economic development,

能够有着表现如此惊人 的经济发展的原因，

is because they finally understood, absorbed and are implementing

是因为他们最终完全理解、 吸收并且执行了

free market economics --

自由市场经济——

a gift from the West.

一个来自西方的馈赠。

Adam Smith was right.

亚当·密斯是对的。

If you let markets decide,

如果你让市场来主导，

productivity goes up.

生产力就会提升。

The second gift was psychological.

第二个馈赠是心理学。

Here too I can speak from personal experience.

这里我同样可以 通过我自身的经历来讲述。

When I was young,

在我年幼的时候，

my mother and her generation believed

我的母亲和她那一代人都相信，

that life was determined by fate.

人的命运是注定的，

You couldn't do anything about it.

你无法反抗你的命运。

My generation

我那个年代

and the generation of Asians after me,

和我之后年代的亚洲人，

believe that we can take charge

则相信我们可以主导命运

and we can improve our lives.

并且我们可以改善自己的生活。

And this may explain, for example,

这或许可以解释，比如，

the spike of entrepreneurship you see all throughout Asia today.

如今在整个亚洲随处可见的 突增的创业数量。

And if you travel through Asia today,

现在如果你在亚洲旅游，

you will also see the results of the third revolution:

你同样将会看到第三个革命的结果：

the revolution of good governance.

一个优质治理的革命。

Now as a result of good governance --

由于一个优质的治理——

travel in Asia,

在亚洲周游，

you see better health care,

你会看到更好的医疗，

better education,

更好的教育，

better infrastructure,

更完善的基础建设，

better public policies.

更人性化的公共政策。

It's a different world.

它是一个不同的世界。

Now having transformed the world

现在亚洲已经通过与世界其它区域

through the sharing of Western wisdom with the rest of the world,

共享西方智慧，改变了世界，

the logical and rational response of the West should have been

西方有逻辑的理性回答应当是

to say, "Hey, we have to adjust and adapt to this new world."

“嘿，我们不得不调整自己 去适应这个新的世界。”

Instead, the West chose to go to sleep.

相反，西方选择沉睡。

Why did it happen?

为什么会这样呢？

I believe it happened

我相信它发生

because the West became distracted with two major events.

是因为西方被两个重要的事件分心了。

The first event was the end of the Cold War.

第一个事件是冷战结束。

Yes, the end of the Cold War was a great victory.

是的，冷战的结束 是一个伟大的胜利。

The West defeated the mighty Soviet Union without firing a shot.

西方不费一个子弹 就打败了强大的苏联。

Amazing.

不可思议。

But you know, when you have a great victory like this,

但是要知道，当你有了 一个这么伟大的胜利，

it also leads to arrogance and hubris.

也同样导致了自大和傲慢。

And this hubris was best captured in a very famous essay

这种自大也被作家福山

by Francis Fukuyama

一篇非常著名的论文

called "The End of History?"

《历史的结束》完美的诠释了。

Now, Fukuyama was putting across a very sophisticated message,

福山传递了 一条非常复杂的信息，

but all that the West heard from this essay

但是西方从这篇论文里 获得的所有信息

was that we, the liberal democracies,

就是我们，自由民主国家，

we have succeeded,

我们胜利了，

we don't have to change,

我们不需要改变，

we don't have to adapt,

我们也不需要去适应，

it's only the rest of the world that has to change and adapt.

世界其它区域需要 来改变和适应我们。

Unfortunately, like a dangerous opiate,

不幸的是，就像危险的鸦片，

this essay did a lot of brain damage to the West

这篇论文确实对西方 造成了大量的大脑损伤，

because it put them to sleep

因为这让它们选择沉睡，

just at precisely the moment when China and India were waking up

恰好在中国和印度苏醒时，

and the West didn't adjust and adapt.

而西方并没有调整适应。

The second major event was 9/11,

第二个重要事件是

which happened in 2001.

发生于2001年的9/11恐怖袭击。

And as we know, 9/11 caused a lot of shock and grief.

众所周知，9/11引起了 巨大的震惊和悲痛。

I personally experienced the shock and grief

我个人也经历了这样的震惊和悲痛，

because I was in Manhattan when 9/11 happened.

因为当天我就在曼哈顿。

9/11 also generated a lot of anger,

9/11同样也引发了众怒，

and in this anger, the United States decided to invade Afghanistan

然后在这样的愤怒中， 美国决定侵略阿富汗，

and later, Iraq.

以及随后的伊拉克。

And unfortunately,

不幸的是，

partly as a result of this anger,

这种愤怒带来的一部分结果就是，

the West didn't notice the significance of another event

西方没有注意到另外一个

that happened also in 2001.

同样发生在2001年的重要事件。

China joined the World Trade Organization.

中国加入了世界贸易组织。

Now, when you suddenly inject

当你突然

900 million new workers

向全球资本系统注入

into the global capitalist system,

9亿名新的劳动力，

it would naturally lead

这自然地就引发了

to what the economist Joseph Schumpeter called creative destruction.

被经济学家约瑟夫·熊彼特 称之为的“创造性破坏”。

Western workers lost their jobs,

西方的工人们失去了工作，

they saw their incomes stagnate,

眼睁睁看着他们的收入停滞，

clearly people had to think about new competitive policies,

显然人们不得不思考新的竞争策略，

workers needed retraining,

工人需要重新培训，

workers needed new skills.

需要新的技能。

None of this was done.

对此，国家没有采取任何行动。

So partly as a result of this,

所以部分出于这个原因，

the United States of America became

美国成为了

the only major developed society

唯一一个主要发达社会中

where the average income of the bottom 50 percent --

底层50%的平均收入——

yes, 50 percent --

是的，50%的——

average income went down over a 30-year period,

平均收入在1980年 到2010年的30年间

from 1980 to 2010.

下降了的国家。

So partly, as a result of this,

所以部分由于这个原因，

it led eventually to the election of Donald Trump in 2016,

最终导致了在2016年 Donald Trump的当选，

who exploited the anger of the working classes,

他利用了工人阶层的愤怒，

who are predominantly white.

这些人信奉白人至上主义。

It also contributed to the rise of populism in Europe.

这也促成了欧洲民粹主义的崛起。

And one wonders,

有人可能疑惑，

could this populism have been avoided

如果西方没有被冷战结束 和9/11转移注意力，

if the West had not been distracted by the end of the Cold War and by 9/11?

是不是民粹主义就可以被避免？

But the big question we face today is this:

但是目前我们面对的最大的问题是：

Is it too late?

现在是不是太晚了？

Has the West lost everything?

西方已经失去了一切了吗？

And my answer is that it's not too late.

我的答案则是还不算太晚。

It is possible for the West to recover

西方恢复并回到强盛时期

and come back in strength.

是有可能的。

And using the Western art of reasoning,

利用西方的推理艺术，

I would recommend that the West adopt a new "three-m" strategy:

我会推荐西方采用一个新“3M”策略：

minimalist, multilateral and Machiavellian.

极简主义，多边主义 和马基雅弗利主义。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

Why minimalist?

为什么是极简主义？

Now even though Western domination has ended,

尽管西方统治时期已经结束，

the West continues to intervene and interfere in the affairs

西方仍然插手和干预了

of many other societies.

多国内政。

This is unwise.

这是不明智的。

This is generating anger and resentment,

这引发了愤怒和怨恨，

especially in Islamic societies.

尤其是穆斯林社会。

It's also draining the resources and spirits of Western societies.

这同样也在消耗西方社会 的资源和精神。

Now I know that the Islamic world

我知道现在穆斯林世界

is having difficulties modernizing.

面临着现代化进程的困难。

It will have to find its way,

它会找到自己的路，

but it's more likely to do so if it is left alone to do so.

但是如果让它独立发展 会更有可能成功。

Now I can say this with some conviction because I come from a region,

我能够有信心的说这句话, 是因为我来自

Southeast Asia,

东南亚地区，

which has almost as many Muslims as the Arab world.

那里有着和阿拉伯世界 同样数量的穆斯林。

266 million Muslims.

2.66亿穆斯林。

Southeast Asia is also one of the most diverse continents on planet earth,

东南亚是这个地球上 最多样化的地区之一，

because you also have 146 million Christians,

因为那里还有1.46亿基督徒，

149 million Buddhists --

1.49亿佛教徒——

Mahayana Buddhists and Hinayana Buddhists --

大乘佛教徒和小乘佛教徒——

and you also have millions of Taoists and Confucianists and Hindus

并且还有数以百万计的道教， 儒家和印度教徒，

and even communists.

甚至共产党员。

And once known as "the Balkans of Asia,"

这里曾经被称为“亚洲巴尔干半岛”，

southeast Asia today should be experiencing a clash of civilizations.

现在应该正在经历文明冲突。

Instead, what you see in southeast Asia

相反，你在东南亚看到的

is one of the most peaceful and prosperous corners of planet earth

是这个地球最和平 和繁荣的角落之一，

with the second-most successful regional multilateral organization,

有着第二大成功的 地区性多边组织，

ASEAN.

东盟。

So clearly, minimalism can work.

很明显，极简主义是可行的。

The West should try it out.

西方应该试一下。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

(Applause)

（鼓掌）

But I'm also aware that minimalism cannot solve all the problems.

但是我也意识到极简主义 并不能解决所有问题。

There are some hard problems that have to be dealt with:

有一些很困难的问题 需要被处理——

Al-Qaeda, ISIS --

基地组织，ISIS——

they remain dangerous threats.

它们仍然是危险的威胁。

They must be found, they must be destroyed.

它必须得被发现，必须被摧毁。

The question is, is it wise for the West,

问题是，这对西方是否明智，

which represents 12 percent of the world's population --

西方只占全球人口的12%——

yes, 12 percent --

是的，12%——

to fight these threats on its own

西方是独自与这些威胁斗争

or to fight with the remaining 88 percent of the world's population?

还是与剩下88%的 全球人口共同战斗？

And the logical and rational answer is

符合逻辑和理性的答案是，

that you should work with the remaining 88 percent.

你应该和剩下的88%一起战斗。

Now where does one go

现在如果你想获得人类的支持，

if you want to get the support of humanity?

你应该去哪里呢？

There's only one place:

只有一个地方：

the United Nations.

联合国。

Now I've been ambassador to the UN twice.

我曾两次担任驻联合国大使。

Maybe that makes me a bit biased,

可能这会让我带点偏见，

but I can tell you that working with the UN can lead to success.

但我可以告诉你们跟联合国 合作可以通往成功。

Why is it that the first Iraq war,

为什么乔治 · H · W · 布什

fought by President George H. W. Bush,

发动的第一次伊拉克战争

succeeded?

会取得成功？

While the second Iraq war,

而由他的儿子乔治 · W · 布什

fought by his son, President George W. Bush,

发动的第二次伊拉克战争

failed?

会失败？

One key reason is that the senior Bush went to the UN

一个关键的原因在于，老布什

to get the support of the global community

在发动伊拉克战争前， 曾来到联合国

before fighting the war in Iraq.

寻找全球群体的支持。

So multilateralism works.

所以多边主义获得了成功。

There's another reason why we have to work with the UN.

还有另一个我们为什么必须 和联合国合作的理由。

The world is shrinking.

世界在缩小。

We are becoming a small, interdependent, global village.

我们正在成为一个小的， 相互依存的地球村。

All villages need village councils.

所有的村子都需要村委会。

And the only global village counsel we have,

而我们唯一拥有的全球村委会，

as the late UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan said,

正如已故联合国秘书长 科菲·安南所说，

is the UN.

是联合国。

Now as a geopolitical analyst,

作为一个地缘政治分析家，

I do know that it's often considered naive

我确实知道人们通常认为 和联合国合作

to work with the UN.

是幼稚的。

So now let me inject my Machiavellian point.

那么现在让我把马基雅维利式 的观点插进去。

Now Machiavelli is a figure who's often derided in the West,

马基雅维利是一个经常 被西方嘲笑的人物，

but the liberal philosopher Isaiah Berlin reminded us

但自由派哲学家 以赛亚•伯林提醒我们，

that the goal of Machiavelli was to promote virtue, not evil.

马基雅维利的目标是 宣扬美德，而不是邪恶。

So what is the Machiavellian point?

那么马基雅维利的观点是什么？

It's this: what is the best way for the West

对于西方来说，

to constrain the new rising powers

约束正在崛起的新兴大国

that are emerging?

的最佳方式是什么？

And the answer is that the best way to constrain them

答案是，约束他们的最好方式

is through multilateral rules and multilateral norms,

是通过多边规则和多边规范、

multilateral institutions

多边机构

and multilateral processes.

和多边流程。

Now let me conclude with one final, big message.

现在让我用最后一句 重要的信息来总结一下。

As a longtime friend of the West,

作为一个西方世界的老朋友，

I'm acutely aware of how pessimistic Western societies have become.

我敏锐地意识到西方世界 已经变得多么悲观。

Many in the West don't believe that a great future lies ahead for them,

在西方世界的很多人不相信 前面还有美好的未来，

that their children will not have better lives.

他们的孩子不会有更好的生活。

So please do not fear the future or the rest of the world.

所以请不要害怕未来， 或害怕世界其他国家。

Now I can say this with some conviction,

我可以满怀信心地说，

because as a Hindu Sindhi,

因为作为一个印度信德人，

I actually feel a direct cultural connection

从德黑兰到东京， 我都能切实感受到

with society's diverse cultures

与社会多元文化和群体

and societies all the way from Tehran to Tokyo.

的直接文化联系。

And more than half of humanity lives in this space,

地球上超过一半的人 生活在这个空间中，

so with this direct cultural connection,

所以通过这种直接的文化联系，

I can say with great conviction

我可以满怀信心地说，

that if the West chooses to adopt a wiser strategy

如果西方选择采取 一种更明智的策略，

of being minimalist, multilateral and Machiavellian,

成为极简主义者、多边主义者 和马基雅维利主义者，

the rest of the world will be happy to work with the West.

世界其他国家将乐于 与西方世界合作。

So a great future lies ahead for humanity.

那么，人类的美好未来就在前方。

Let's embrace it together.

让我们共同拥抱它。

Thank you.

谢谢。

(Applause)

（鼓掌）