How the West can adapt to a rising Asia | Kishore Mahbubani

譯者: Helen Chang 審譯者: Bruce Sung

About 200 years ago,

大約 200 年前，

Napoleon famously warned ...

拿破崙發出了著名的警告......

He said, "Let China sleep,

他說：「讓中國沈睡，

for when she wakes,

因為一旦醒過來，

she will shake the world."

她將震撼整個世界。」

Despite this early warning,

儘管有這樣的早期警告，

the West chose to go to sleep

西方仍選擇在中國、印度

at precisely the moment when China and India

和亞洲其他地區甦醒過來時入睡。

and the rest of Asia woke up.

Why did this happen?

為什麼會這樣？

I'm here to address this great mystery.

我來這裡解說這個大謎團。

Now what do I mean when I say the West chose to go to sleep?

我說西方選擇入睡，意思是什麼？

Here I'm referring to the failure of the West

我在這裡所指的是

西方未能智慧地、深思熟慮地應對

to react intelligently and thoughtfully

to a new world environment that's obviously been created

這個顯然是由亞洲回歸 所創造的新世界環境。

by the return of Asia.

As a friend of the West I feel anguished by this,

身為西方的朋友，我感到非常痛苦，

so my goal to today is to try to help the West.

所以我今天的目標是努力幫助西方。

But I have to begin the story first

但首先我必須談談

by talking about how the West actually woke up the rest of the world.

實際上西方如何喚醒了 世界的其他地方。

Look at chart one.

請看圖表一。

From the year one through the year 1820,

從第一年直到 1820 年，

the two largest economies of the world were always those of China and India.

世上最大的兩個經濟體 始終是中國和印度的經濟體。

So it's only in the last 200 years that Europe took off,

只有在過去的 200 年裡歐洲起飛，

followed by North America.

接著是北美。

So the past 200 years of world history

所以，過去 200 年的世界歷史

have therefore been a major historical aberration.

嚴重偏離正常。

All aberrations come to a natural end

畸變全都會自然而然地結束，

and this is what we are seeing.

正如我們所見。

And if you look at chart two,

看圖表二

you'll see how quickly and how forcefully

就會看到中國和印度

China and India are coming back.

快速和強勁的回歸力道。

The big question is:

最大的問題是：

Who woke up China and India?

誰喚醒了中國和印度？

The only honest answer to this question is that it was Western civilization

這個問題唯一的誠實答案

就是西方的文明。

that did so.

We all know that the West was the first to successfully modernize,

我們都知道是西方國家

首先成功地現代化和自我改造，

transform itself;

initially it used its power to colonize and dominate the world.

先是用權力來殖民和統治世界。

But over time, it shared the gifts of Western wisdom

但隨著時間推移，

它與其餘的世界分享 西方智慧的恩賜。

with the rest of the world.

Let me add here that I have personally benefited

讓我在這裡補充說明，

我本身受益於西方分享的智慧。

from the sharing of Western wisdom.

When I was born in Singapore,

我於 1948 年出生在新加坡，

which was then a poor British colony,

當時是一個貧窮的英國殖民地，

in 1948,

I experienced, like three-quarters of humanity then,

和當時四分之三的人一樣，

我經歷了極度的貧困。

extreme poverty.

Indeed, on the first day when I went to school

事實上，在 6 歲時我第一天上學，

at the age of six,

I was put in a special feeding program

被排入一個特殊的餵養計劃，

because I was technically undernourished.

因為技術上來說，我營養不良。

Now as you can see I'm overnourished.

看得出現在我營養過剩。

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

But the greatest gift I got was that of Western education.

但我收到的最大禮物 是接受西方教育。

Now since I've personally traveled this journey

自從我個人走過這個

from third world poverty to a comfortable middle-class existence,

從貧困的第三世界 到舒適的中產階級的旅程後，

I can speak with great conviction about the impact of Western wisdom

我能以強烈的信念談論

西方的智慧，和西方 與世界分享智慧的影響。

and the sharing of Western wisdom with the world.

And one particular gift that the West shared

一件西方分享的特別禮物

was the art of reasoning.

就是推理的藝術。

Now reasoning was not invented by the West.

推理並非西方所發明，

It's inherent in all cultures and civilizations.

全部的文化和文明本來就有。

Amartya Sen has described how deeply embedded it is in Indian civilization.

阿馬蒂亞·庫馬爾·森描述

它深嵌在印度的文明中。

Yet there's also no doubt

然而毫無疑問，

that it was the West that carried the art of reasoning

是西方將推理藝術 推向了更高的層次。

to a much higher level.

And through the Scientific Revolution,

通過科學革命、

the Enlightenment,

啟蒙運動、

the Industrial Revolution,

工業革命，

the West really raised it forcefully,

西方確實強而有力地 提升推理的藝術，

and equally importantly used this,

同樣重要的是

還用它來解決許多重大的實際問題。

applied it to solve many major practical problems.

And the West then shared this art of applied reasoning

然後西方與世界其他的地方 分享這種應用推理的藝術，

with the rest of the world,

and I can tell you that it led

我可以告訴你，

to what I call three silent revolutions.

它導致了我說的三次「無聲革命」。

And as an Asian,

身為亞洲人，

I can describe how these silent revolutions transformed Asia.

我能描述這些無聲的革命 如何改變了亞洲。

The first revolution was in economics.

第一次革命是經濟。

The main reason why so many Asian economies,

許多亞洲經濟體——

including the communist societies of China and Vietnam,

中國和越南共產主義社會包括在內——

have performed so spectacularly well in economic development,

能在經濟發展方面表現如此出色，

is because they finally understood, absorbed and are implementing

主要是因為它們最終理解、吸收

並實施自由市場經濟——

free market economics --

a gift from the West.

來自西方的禮物。

Adam Smith was right.

亞當史密斯是對的，

If you let markets decide,

如果任由市場決定，

productivity goes up.

生產力就會提高。

The second gift was psychological.

第二個禮物是心理上的。

Here too I can speak from personal experience.

也可以用我個的人經驗談。

When I was young,

我年輕時，

my mother and her generation believed

家母和她那一代的人

相信生命由命運決定，

that life was determined by fate.

You couldn't do anything about it.

你無能為力。

My generation

我這一代

and the generation of Asians after me,

和在我之後的亞洲人世代

believe that we can take charge

相信我們能夠掌控、

and we can improve our lives.

能夠改善我們的生活。

And this may explain, for example,

舉個例子，

the spike of entrepreneurship you see all throughout Asia today.

這可以解釋你今天 在亞洲各地看到的創業高峰。

And if you travel through Asia today,

如果你今天在亞洲旅行，

you will also see the results of the third revolution:

你也會看到

第三次革命的結果：

the revolution of good governance.

善治的革命。

Now as a result of good governance --

由於良好的治理——

travel in Asia,

在亞洲各地看得到

you see better health care,

更好的醫療保健、

better education,

更好的教育、

better infrastructure,

更好的基礎設施、

better public policies.

更好的公共政策。

It's a different world.

是個不一樣的世界。

Now having transformed the world

在與世界其他國家分享西方的智慧，

through the sharing of Western wisdom with the rest of the world,

改變了世界之後，

the logical and rational response of the West should have been

西方的邏輯和理性反應本該是：

to say, "Hey, we have to adjust and adapt to this new world."

「嘿，我們必須調整 和適應這個新世界。」

Instead, the West chose to go to sleep.

然而相反地，西方選擇沈睡。

Why did it happen?

為什麼會這樣？

I believe it happened

我相信是因為

because the West became distracted with two major events.

西方因兩件大事而分心了。

The first event was the end of the Cold War.

第一件事是冷戰結束。

Yes, the end of the Cold War was a great victory.

是的，冷戰的結束 是一次偉大的勝利。

The West defeated the mighty Soviet Union without firing a shot.

西方在不發一槍一彈的情況下 擊敗了強大的蘇聯。

Amazing.

很驚人。

But you know, when you have a great victory like this,

但要知道，這樣的偉大勝利

it also leads to arrogance and hubris.

也會導致傲慢和狂妄自大。

And this hubris was best captured in a very famous essay

弗朗西斯·福山（Francis Fukuyama）

一篇名為〈歷史的終結〉的著名文章

by Francis Fukuyama

最能捕捉這種狂妄自大。

called "The End of History?"

Now, Fukuyama was putting across a very sophisticated message,

福山傳遞非常複雜的訊息，

but all that the West heard from this essay

但西方從這篇文章中只聽到：

was that we, the liberal democracies,

我們自由民主國家已經成功，

we have succeeded,

we don't have to change,

我們不需改變，

we don't have to adapt,

我們無需適應，

it's only the rest of the world that has to change and adapt.

世界其他地方必須要改變和適應。

Unfortunately, like a dangerous opiate,

不幸的是，就像 危險的鴉片製劑一樣，

this essay did a lot of brain damage to the West

這篇文章造成西方巨大的腦傷，

because it put them to sleep

因為在中國和印度醒來

just at precisely the moment when China and India were waking up

與西方尚未調整和適應的關鍵時刻，

and the West didn't adjust and adapt.

它使得西方睡著了。

The second major event was 9/11,

第二個重大事件是 9/11 事件，

which happened in 2001.

發生在 2001 年。

And as we know, 9/11 caused a lot of shock and grief.

正如眾所週知， 9/11 引起許多震驚和悲痛。

I personally experienced the shock and grief

我個人也經歷了震驚和悲傷，

because I was in Manhattan when 9/11 happened.

因為 9/11 事件發生時我在曼哈頓。

9/11 also generated a lot of anger,

9/11 也引發了眾多憤怒，

and in this anger, the United States decided to invade Afghanistan

在憤怒當中，美國決定入侵阿富汗，

and later, Iraq.

後來又入侵伊拉克。

And unfortunately,

不幸的是，

partly as a result of this anger,

部分由於這憤怒，

the West didn't notice the significance of another event

西方沒注意到 2001 年發生的

另一起事件的重要性：

that happened also in 2001.

China joined the World Trade Organization.

中國加入了世界貿易組織。

Now, when you suddenly inject

當全球資本主義體系

900 million new workers

突然注入了 9 億個新工人時，

into the global capitalist system,

it would naturally lead

自然會導致經濟學家約瑟夫·熊彼特

to what the economist Joseph Schumpeter called creative destruction.

所謂的「創造性破壞」。

Western workers lost their jobs,

西方工人失業，

they saw their incomes stagnate,

看到他們的收入停滯不前，

clearly people had to think about new competitive policies,

顯然人們不得不考慮新的競爭政策，

workers needed retraining,

工人需要再培訓，

workers needed new skills.

工人需要新的技能。

None of this was done.

這些都沒做。

So partly as a result of this,

這是部分的原因，

the United States of America became

它導致美國

the only major developed society

成為主要已開發國家中

where the average income of the bottom 50 percent --

平均收入較低的半數國人——

yes, 50 percent --

沒錯，50％ 的人——

30 年來平均收入下降的唯一國家，

average income went down over a 30-year period,

從 1980 年到 2010年。

from 1980 to 2010.

So partly, as a result of this,

這是部分原因，

it led eventually to the election of Donald Trump in 2016,

最終導致 2016 年川普當選總統，

who exploited the anger of the working classes,

他利用了工人階級——

who are predominantly white.

主要是白人——的憤怒。

It also contributed to the rise of populism in Europe.

這也促成了歐洲民粹主義的興起。

And one wonders,

有人納悶，

could this populism have been avoided

如果西方在冷戰結束 和 9/11 之前沒有分心的話，

if the West had not been distracted by the end of the Cold War and by 9/11?

能否避免這種民粹主義？

But the big question we face today is this:

但我們今天面臨的重大問題是：

Is it too late?

為時已晚了嗎？

Has the West lost everything?

西方失去了一切嗎？

And my answer is that it's not too late.

我的回答是：為時未晚。

It is possible for the West to recover

西方能夠復原

and come back in strength.

和再起。

And using the Western art of reasoning,

用西方的推理藝術，

I would recommend that the West adopt a new "three-m" strategy:

我建議西方採用新的「三 M」策略：

minimalist, multilateral and Machiavellian.

極簡主義（minimalist）、

多邊主義（multilateral）

和馬基維利主義（Machiavellian）。

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

Why minimalist?

為什麼用極簡主義？

Now even though Western domination has ended,

儘管西方的支配已成過去，

the West continues to intervene and interfere in the affairs

西方仍繼續干預、干涉

許多其他社會的事務。

of many other societies.

This is unwise.

這很不明智，

This is generating anger and resentment,

引起憤怒和怨恨，

especially in Islamic societies.

尤其在伊斯蘭的社會裡。

It's also draining the resources and spirits of Western societies.

它也正在損耗西方 社會的資源和精神。

Now I know that the Islamic world

我知道伊斯蘭世界

is having difficulties modernizing.

正面臨現代化的困境，

It will have to find its way,

它必須找到自己的方式，

but it's more likely to do so if it is left alone to do so.

但如果放手由它自己做， 就更可能辦得到。

Now I can say this with some conviction because I come from a region,

我懷抱著信念這樣說，

因為我來自東南亞地區，

Southeast Asia,

which has almost as many Muslims as the Arab world.

這個地區裡的穆斯林 幾乎和阿拉伯世界裡的一樣多。

266 million Muslims.

有 2.66 億個穆斯林。

Southeast Asia is also one of the most diverse continents on planet earth,

東南亞也是地球上 最多樣化的陸塊之一，

because you also have 146 million Christians,

因為那裡還擁有 1.46 億名基督徒、

149 million Buddhists --

1.49 億名佛教徒——

Mahayana Buddhists and Hinayana Buddhists --

大乘和小乘的佛教徒——

and you also have millions of Taoists and Confucianists and Hindus

還有數百萬道家、儒家和印度教徒，

and even communists.

甚至共產黨人。

And once known as "the Balkans of Asia,"

東南亞曾經被稱為 「亞洲的巴爾幹半島」，

southeast Asia today should be experiencing a clash of civilizations.

今天本應經歷著文明的衝突。

Instead, what you see in southeast Asia

相反地，你所看到的東南亞

is one of the most peaceful and prosperous corners of planet earth

是地球上最和平、 最繁榮的角落之一，

with the second-most successful regional multilateral organization,

有著第二成功的區域多邊組織：

ASEAN.

東南亞國家協會。

So clearly, minimalism can work.

很明顯極簡主義能奏效，

The West should try it out.

西方應該嘗試一下。

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

(Applause)

（掌聲）

But I'm also aware that minimalism cannot solve all the problems.

但我也意識到極簡主義 無法解決所有的問題。

There are some hard problems that have to be dealt with:

有些難題需要處理：

Al-Qaeda, ISIS --

基地組織、伊斯蘭國

they remain dangerous threats.

仍然是危險的威脅。

They must be found, they must be destroyed.

必須找到它們、摧毀它們。

The question is, is it wise for the West,

問題是，這樣做明智嗎，

由只佔世界人口 12％ 的西方——

which represents 12 percent of the world's population --

yes, 12 percent --

沒錯，12％——

to fight these threats on its own

單獨對抗這些威脅，

or to fight with the remaining 88 percent of the world's population?

還是與世上其餘的 88％ 人口聯手對抗呢？

And the logical and rational answer is

理性的答案應該是

that you should work with the remaining 88 percent.

與其餘的 88％ 人合作。

Now where does one go

如果想獲得人們的支持，

if you want to get the support of humanity?

應該去哪裡？

There's only one place:

只有一個地方：

the United Nations.

聯合國。

Now I've been ambassador to the UN twice.

我擔任駐聯合國大使兩次。

Maybe that makes me a bit biased,

也許這讓我有點偏頗，

but I can tell you that working with the UN can lead to success.

但我能告訴你 和聯合國合作能帶來成功。

Why is it that the first Iraq war,

為什麼老布希總統

fought by President George H. W. Bush,

在第一次伊拉克戰爭中成功，

succeeded?

While the second Iraq war,

而他的兒子小布希總統

fought by his son, President George W. Bush,

在第二次伊拉克戰爭中失敗了呢？

failed?

One key reason is that the senior Bush went to the UN

其中一個關鍵原因是 在出兵伊拉克之前，

to get the support of the global community

老布希總統前往聯合國 尋求全球社會的支持。

before fighting the war in Iraq.

So multilateralism works.

多邊主義是有效的。

There's another reason why we have to work with the UN.

另一個必須與聯合國合作的原因是

The world is shrinking.

世界正在縮小，

We are becoming a small, interdependent, global village.

正在成為小型、相互依存的地球村。

All villages need village councils.

所有的村里都需要村民代表大會。

And the only global village counsel we have,

正如已故的聯合國秘書長 科菲·安南所說的，

as the late UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan said,

我們唯一擁有的全球村 村民代表大會就是聯合國。

is the UN.

Now as a geopolitical analyst,

身為地緣政治分析家，

I do know that it's often considered naive

我明白與聯合國合作

往往被視為天真。

to work with the UN.

So now let me inject my Machiavellian point.

所以現在讓我注入 我的馬基維利觀點。

Now Machiavelli is a figure who's often derided in the West,

馬基維利是個經常 被西方嘲笑的人物，

but the liberal philosopher Isaiah Berlin reminded us

但自由派哲學家 以賽亞·柏林提醒我們，

that the goal of Machiavelli was to promote virtue, not evil.

馬基維利的目標是促進美德，

不是邪惡。

So what is the Machiavellian point?

那麼，什麼是馬基維利觀點呢？

It's this: what is the best way for the West

如下：

什麼是西方限制

正在崛起的新興大國的最佳辦法呢？

to constrain the new rising powers

that are emerging?

And the answer is that the best way to constrain them

最佳的限制方式是

is through multilateral rules and multilateral norms,

是透過多邊規則和多邊規範，

multilateral institutions

多邊機構和多邊進程。

and multilateral processes.

Now let me conclude with one final, big message.

最後讓我用一個重大的訊息總結。

As a longtime friend of the West,

身為西方的老朋友，

I'm acutely aware of how pessimistic Western societies have become.

我敏銳地意識到

西方社會的悲觀情緒。

Many in the West don't believe that a great future lies ahead for them,

許多西方人不相信 自己會有美好的未來，

that their children will not have better lives.

他們的孩子將無法擁有更好的生活。

So please do not fear the future or the rest of the world.

請不要害怕未來

或其餘的世界。

Now I can say this with some conviction,

我相信，

because as a Hindu Sindhi,

因為身為印度教信徒，

I actually feel a direct cultural connection

我真的感受到直接的聯繫，

與社會和社會多元文化的

with society's diverse cultures

and societies all the way from Tehran to Tokyo.

直接聯繫，

從德黑蘭一直到東京。

And more than half of humanity lives in this space,

超過一半的人生活在這個空間裡，

so with this direct cultural connection,

所以，透過這種直接的文化聯繫，

I can say with great conviction

我可以非常有信心地說，

that if the West chooses to adopt a wiser strategy

如果西方明智地選擇採取

更簡約的、

of being minimalist, multilateral and Machiavellian,

多邊的，和馬基維利策略，

the rest of the world will be happy to work with the West.

其餘的世界將會樂與西方合作。

So a great future lies ahead for humanity.

因此，人類面臨著美好的未來。

Let's embrace it together.

讓我們一起擁抱這未來。

Thank you.

謝謝。

(Applause)

（掌聲）