A global food crisis may be less than a decade away | Sara Menker

翻译人员: Hong Li 校对人员: Tianyue Wu

Since 2009, the world has been stuck

从2009年开始， 全世界都在讨论一个话题，

on a single narrative around a coming global food crisis

就是即将来临的全球粮食危机，

and what we need to do to avoid it.

以及我们应该怎么来避免它。

How do we feed nine billion people by 2050?

到2050年，我们 怎么来养活90亿人口？

Every conference, podcast and dialogue around global food security

关于全球粮食危机的每一场会议， 每一期博客，每一场对话

starts with this question

都会问到这个问题，

and goes on to answer it

而答案几乎都是

by saying we need to produce 70 percent more food.

我们需要增加70%的粮食产量。

The 2050 narrative started to evolve

关于2050年的这个话题，

shortly after global food prices hit all-time highs in 2008.

出现在2008年，当时 全球粮食价格达到了历史最高点。

People were suffering and struggling,

人们焦虑不安，

governments and world leaders

认为政府和世界领袖们

needed to show us that they were paying attention

应该让我们相信， 他们在关注这个问题，

and were working to solve it.

并在着手解决。

The thing is, 2050 is so far into the future

但问题是，2050年离我们还很遥远，

that we can't even relate to it,

可能跟我们都没什么关系了，

and more importantly,

更重要的是，

if we keep doing what we're doing,

如果我们不做任何改变，

it's going to hit us a lot sooner than that.

危机会在那之前降临。

I believe we need to ask a different question.

我觉得我们应该问另一个问题。

The answer to that question

而这个问题的答案

needs to be framed differently.

要重新进行组织。

If we can reframe the old narrative

如果我们换一种表述的方法，

and replace it with new numbers

更新一下数据，

that tell us a more complete pictures,

可能能看得更全面，

numbers that everyone can understand

让数据简单易懂，

and relate to,

跟每个人都有关，

we can avoid the crisis altogether.

我们可以共同来避免这场危机。

I was a commodities trader in my past life

我以前是做商品贸易的，

and one of the things that I learned trading

贸易教会我一件事，

is that every market has a tipping point,

每个市场都有一个转折点，

the point at which change occurs so rapidly

在它来临之时，变化来得如此之快，

that it impacts the world

会影响整个世界，

and things change forever.

带来永久的变化。

Think of the last financial crisis,

想想最近一场金融危机，

or the dot-com crash.

或者互联网泡沫。

So here's my concern.

因此我担忧的是，

We could have a tipping point

如果大幅增长的粮食需求，

in global food and agriculture

超过了农业系统生产粮食的上限，

if surging demand

那我们在全球粮食和农业市场

surpasses the agricultural system's structural capacity to produce food.

也会遇到这个转折点。

This means at this point supply can no longer keep up with demand

到那个时候，供应会跟不上需求，

despite exploding prices,

尽管价格会上涨，

unless we can commit to some type of structural change.

除非我们能从结构上进行某种改变。

This time around,

到那个时候，

it won't be about stock markets and money.

就跟股票市场和货币无关了。

It's about people.

而是跟人有关。

People could starve and governments may fall.

人们会遭遇饥饿，政府会垮台。

This question of at what point does supply struggle

这个具体的时间点：

to keep up with surging demand

供应何时会跟不上需求？

is one that started off as an interest for me while I was trading

我在做贸易的时候，起初很感兴趣，

and became an absolute obsession.

后来变得痴迷

It went from interest to obsession

为什么会从兴趣到痴迷呢

when I realized through my research how broken the system was

因为我在研究过程中发现， 整个体系是如此不完善，

and how very little data was being used to make such critical decisions.

如此重要的决定， 背后的支持数据又如此之少。

That's the point I decided to walk away from a career on Wall Street

于是我决定离开华尔街，

and start an entrepreneurial journey

走上创业之路，

to start Gro Intelligence.

成立了Gro Intelligence公司。

At Gro, we focus on bringing this data

我们专注于数据收集，

and doing the work to make it actionable,

并令数据具有可操作性，

to empower decision-makers at every level.

以便支持各个级别的决策者。

But doing this work,

但在工作过程中，

we also realized that the world,

我们也发现这个世界

not just world leaders,

不仅仅是领导者，

but businesses and citizens like every single person in this room,

还包括商人和普通公民， 就像在座的每一个人，

lacked an actionable guide

大家都缺乏行动指引，

on how we can avoid a coming global food security crisis.

应该如何避免即将来临的 全球粮食危机。

And so we built a model,

于是我们建造了一个模型，

leveraging the petabytes of data we sit on,

利用我们掌握的海量数据，

and we solved for the tipping point.

我们解决了这个转折点的问题。

Now, no one knows we've been working on this problem

目前还没有人知道 我们在研究这个问题，

and this is the first time that I'm sharing what we discovered.

这也是我首次分享我们的发现。

We discovered that the tipping point is actually a decade from now.

我们发现，这个转折点 会出现在10年之后。

We discovered that the world

我们发现，全世界

will be short 214 trillion calories

会有214万亿卡路里的短缺，

by 2027.

到2027年。

The world is not in a position to fill this gap.

目前我们还没办法填补这个短缺。

Now, you'll notice

你们会发现，

that the way I'm framing this is different from how I started,

我现在描述的方式跟刚开始不一样，

and that's intentional, because until now

我是特意这么做的，因为直到现在，

this problem has been quantified using mass:

我们都是用重量在量化这个问题：

think kilograms, tons, hectograms,

像千克、吨、百克，

whatever your unit of choice is in mass.

无论怎么选，都是重量单位。

Why do we talk about food in terms of weight?

为什么我们要用重量来讨论粮食呢？

Because it's easy.

因为用起来简单。

We can look at a photograph and determine tonnage on a ship

我们可以仅凭一张照片， 加一个计算器，

by using a simple pocket calculator.

就可以算出一艘船的总吨位。

We can weigh trucks, airplanes and oxcarts.

我们可以测卡车、飞机和牛车的重量。

But what we care about in food is nutritional value.

但真正重要的是粮食的营养。

Not all foods are created equal,

因为即使重量一样，

even if they weigh the same.

粮食也各不相同。

This I learned firsthand

这一点我有亲身体会，

when I moved from Ethiopia to the US for university.

是在我从埃塞尔比亚 到美国念大学的时候。

Upon my return back home,

当我再回老家的时候，

my father, who was so excited to see me,

我父亲见到我非常兴奋，

greeted me by asking why I was fat.

问我为什么长胖了。

Now, turns out that eating

原来，尽管我的饭量

approximately the same amount of food as I did in Ethiopia, but in America,

跟我在埃塞尔比亚的时候一样大， 但是在美国，

had actually lent a certain fullness to my figure.

这么多的食物 对我的身体而言是有点多的。

This is why we should care about calories,

因此我们应该关注卡路里，

not about mass.

而不是重量。

It is calories which sustain us.

我们都靠卡路里支持。

So 214 trillion calories is a very large number,

214万亿卡路里是个非常大的数字，

and not even the most dedicated of us

可能即使是最专业的人

think in the hundreds of trillions of calories.

也想象不出几百万亿卡路里 意味着什么。

So let me break this down differently.

我们换种方式来解释。

An alternative way to think about this

我们可以把这些卡路里

is to think about it in Big Macs.

都想象成麦当劳的巨无霸汉堡。

214 trillion calories.

214万亿卡路里。

A single Big Mac has 563 calories.

一个巨无霸是563卡路里。

That means the world will be short 379 billion Big Macs in 2027.

也就是说到2027年， 全世界将短缺3790亿个巨无霸汉堡。

That is more Big Macs than McDonald's has ever produced.

这比麦当劳至今生产的 所有巨无霸还要多。

So how did we get to these numbers in the first place?

那么这个数据最初是怎么来的呢？

They're not made up.

不是我们编的。

This map shows you where the world was 40 years ago.

这张图显示的是40年前，

It shows you net calorie gaps in every country in the world.

每个国家的卡路里差异。

Now, simply put,

简单来说，

this is just calories consumed in that country

就是该国家消费的卡路里数量，

minus calories produced in that same country.

减去它生产的卡路里数量。

This is not a statement on malnutrition or anything else.

它并不代表营养不良或者其他指标。

It's simply saying how many calories are consumed in a single year

仅仅显示1年内消耗的卡路里数量

minus how many are produced.

减去生产的卡路里数量。

Blue countries are net calorie exporters,

蓝色的国家是卡路里净出口国，

or self-sufficient.

或者达到自给自足。

They have some in storage for a rainy day.

他们还有一些储备以防万一。

Red countries are net calorie importers.

红色的是卡路里净进口国。

The deeper, the brighter the red,

红色越深越亮的，

the more you're importing.

代表进口得越多。

40 years ago, such few countries were net exporters of calories,

40年前，卡路里 净出口国是如此之少，

I could count them with one hand.

一只手都能数得过来。

Most of the African continent,

非洲大陆的大部分，

Europe, most of Asia,

欧洲，亚洲大部分，

South America excluding Argentina,

南美除了阿根廷，

were all net importers of calories.

全是卡路里净进口国。

And what's surprising is that China used to actually be food self-sufficient.

令人惊讶的是中国 当时居然是自给自足的。

India was a big net importer of calories.

印度则是一个大的卡路里进口国。

40 years later, this is today.

40年后，时至今日。

You can see the drastic transformation that's occurred in the world.

你能看到巨大的变化。

Brazil has emerged as an agricultural powerhouse.

巴西成为了农业引擎。

Europe is dominant in global agriculture.

欧洲成为了全球农业的统治者。

India has actually flipped from red to blue.

印度从红色变成了蓝色。

It's become food self-sufficient.

已经可以自给自足。

And China went from that light blue

而中国从浅蓝色

to the brightest red that you see on this map.

变成了这张地图上最亮的红色。

How did we get here? What happened?

怎么会变成这样？发生了什么？

So this chart shows you India and Africa.

这张图显示的是印度和非洲。

Blue line is India, red line is Africa.

蓝色的线是印度，红色的是非洲。

How is it that two regions that started off so similarly

为什么这两个地区

in such similar trajectories

原本的轨迹如此相似，

take such different paths?

之后差异变得如此之大？

India had a green revolution.

印度进行了一场绿色革命。

Not a single African country had a green revolution.

而没有一个非洲国家做到了。

The net outcome?

那么产出情况呢？

India is food self-sufficient

印度现在自给自足了，

and in the past decade has actually been exporting calories.

而且过去的10年间 它甚至开始出口卡路里。

The African continent now imports over 300 trillion calories a year.

现在非洲大陆 每年进口300万亿卡路里。

Then we add China, the green line.

我们把中国加进来，那条绿线。

Remember the switch from the blue to the bright red?

还记得吗？它是从蓝色 变成了明亮的红色。

What happened and when did it happen?

为什么会这样？何时发生的？

China seemed to be on a very similar path to India

中国的曲线刚开始跟印度很像，

until the start of the 21st century,

直到21世纪初，

where it suddenly flipped.

突然开始急剧上升。

A young and growing population

年轻又不断增长的人口，

combined with significant economic growth

加上飞速的经济增长，

made its mark with a big bang

导致了这样的结果，

and no one in the markets saw it coming.

没有人预见到了这一点。

This flip was everything to global agricultural markets.

这个转折点对全球农业市场 而言非常重要。

Luckily now, South America

幸运的是，南美洲

was starting to boom at the same time as China's rise,

开始飞速发展的时间点跟中国一样，

and so therefore, supply and demand were still somewhat balanced.

但它的供给和需求还是基本平衡的。

So the question becomes,

于是问题变成了，

where do we go from here?

接下来我们会何去何从？

Oddly enough,

神奇的是，

it's not a new story,

这并不是一个新故事，

except this time it's not just a story of China.

只是这一次，这个故事 不仅仅关于中国。

It's a continuation of China,

而是中国事态的延续，

an amplification of Africa

非洲事态的放大，

and a paradigm shift in India.

印度事态的大转变

By 2023,

到2023年，

Africa's population is forecasted to overtake that of India's and China's.

预计非洲的人口数将超过印度和中国。

By 2023, these three regions combined

到那时候，这3个地区的人口

will make up over half the world's population.

将超过世界总人口的一半。

This crossover point starts to present really interesting challenges

这个转折点将对全球粮食安全

for global food security.

带来非常有意思的挑战。

And a few years later, we're hit hard with that reality.

几年后，我们就会面对这个严峻的现实。

What does the world look like in 10 years?

10年后的世界会是什么样？

So far, as I mentioned, India has been food self-sufficient.

到目前为止，像我刚刚提到的， 印度的粮食是自给自足的。

Most forecasters predict that this will continue.

很多人预测这一点不会改变。

We disagree.

而我们不这么认为。

India will soon become a net importer of calories.

印度很快会变成一个 卡路里净进口国。

This will be driven both by the fact

原因有二，

that demand is growing from a population growth standpoint

一是需求会随着人口的增长而增长，

plus economic growth.

二是经济的发展。

It will be driven by both.

这两点都是原因。

And even if you have optimistic assumptions

即使你们对于生产的增长

around production growth,

持有乐观估计，

it will make that slight flip.

那也会带来细微的上扬。

That slight flip can have huge implications.

这点细微的上扬 可能会造成巨大的后果。

Next, Africa will continue to be a net importer of calories,

接下来，非洲会继续 作为卡路里净进口地区，

again driven by population growth and economic growth.

同样也是因为人口增长和经济发展。

This is again assuming optimistic production growth assumptions.

同样我们也假设生产的增长是乐观的。

Then China,

然后是中国，

where population is flattening out,

人口增长已经停止，

calorie consumption will explode

而卡路里的消耗却会爆炸式增长，

because the types of calories consumed

因为他们所消耗的卡路里种类，

are also starting to be higher-calorie-content foods.

将会来源于高卡路里的食物。

And so therefore,

因此，

these three regions combined

这3个地区加起来，

start to present a really interesting challenge for the world.

会给世界带来有趣的挑战。

Until now, countries with calorie deficits

到目前为止，那些卡路里不足的国家

have been able to meet these deficits

尚可以通过从卡路里盈余的地区

by importing from surplus regions.

进口食物来填补空缺。

By surplus regions, I'm talking about

我所指的盈余地区，

North America, South America and Europe.

包括北美、南美和欧洲。

This line chart over here shows you

这张图所表现的，

the growth and the projected growth over the next decade of production

是北美、南美和欧洲生产的增长，

from North America, South America and Europe.

以及未来十年的增长规划。

What it doesn't show you

而从这张图里看不出来的，

is that most of this growth is actually going to come from South America.

是大部分的增长 实际上会来自于南美。

And most of this growth

而这大部分的增长，

is going to come at the huge cost of deforestation.

是靠砍伐森林这种巨大的代价换来的。

And so when you look at the combined demand increase

因此，当你整体来看

coming from India, China and the African continent,

印度、中国和非洲大陆的需求增长，

and look at it versus the combined increase in production

并将其与生产增长进行对比，

coming from India, China, the African continent,

除了上述3个地区外，

North America, South America and Europe,

还有北美、南美和欧洲，

you are left with a 214-trillion-calorie deficit,

就会发现存在 214万亿卡路里的空缺，

one we can't produce.

我们无法填补。

And this, by the way, is actually assuming we take all the extra calories

而且这还是假设 我们把北美、南美和欧洲

produced in North America, South America and Europe

生产的所有剩余的卡路里，

and export them solely to India, China and Africa.

全部出口到印度、中国和非洲。

What I just presented to you is a vision of an impossible world.

我刚刚呈现给大家的 是一个无解的世界。

We can do something to change that.

我们可以改变这一点。

We can change consumption patterns,

我们可以改变消费模式，

we can reduce food waste,

我们可以减少浪费，

or we can make a bold commitment

或者我们可以大胆承诺，

to increasing yields exponentially.

呈几何级数的增加产出。

Now, I'm not going to go into discussing

今天我不想讨论

changing consumption patterns or reducing food waste,

改变消费习惯或者减少浪费，

because those conversations have been going on for some time now.

因为类似的话题已经讨论过多次。

Nothing has happened.

然而并没有什么用。

Nothing has happened because those arguments

因为这些争论

ask the surplus regions to change their behavior

是要求盈余地区的人改变生活习惯，

on behalf of deficit regions.

来帮助亏空地区的人。

Waiting for others to change their behavior

等待别人改变生活习惯

on your behalf, for your survival,

来迁就你，拯救你，

is a terrible idea.

并不是个好主意。

It's unproductive.

因为效益很低。

So I'd like to suggest an alternative that comes from the red regions.

因此我对红色地区的国家 有一个替代方案。

China, India, Africa.

中国、印度和非洲。

China is constrained in terms of how much more land it actually has

中国因为没有更多的土地

available for agriculture,

可以用来发展农业，

and it has massive water resource availability issues.

而且水资源也非常有限。

So the answer really lies in India and in Africa.

因此只能靠印度和非洲。

India has some upside in terms of potential yield increases.

印度在增产方面还有些潜力可挖。

Now this is the gap between its current yield

目前的产量

and the theoretical maximum yield it can achieve.

和理论最高产量间还有些差距。

It has some unfarmed arable land remaining, but not much,

印度还有些未开垦的耕地，但是不多，

India is quite land-constrained.

它的土地也很紧张。

Now, the African continent, on the other hand,

而非洲大陆，情况却不一样，

has vast amounts of arable land remaining

还有很多可耕种的土地，

and significant upside potential in yields.

在产量上还有巨大的潜力。

Somewhat simplified picture here,

这是大致的情况，

but if you look at sub-Saharan African yields in corn today,

但撒哈拉以南非洲如今的玉米产量，

they are where North American yields were in 1940.

相当于北美1940年的水平。

We don't have 70-plus years to figure this out,

我们已经没有70多年 的时间来解决问题了，

so it means we need to try something new

这就意味着我们要用新方法，

and we need to try something different.

要尝试不同的方法。

The solution starts with reforms.

解决问题需要从变革开始。

We need to reform and commercialize

我们需要对非洲和印度的农业

the agricultural industries in Africa

进行改革，

and in India.

将其商业化。

Now, by commercialization --

说到商业化，

commercialization is not about commercial farming alone.

商业化并不仅仅单指耕种。

Commercialization is about leveraging data

商业化是要利用数据，

to craft better policies,

来制定更好的政策，

to improve infrastructure,

改进基础设施，

to lower the transportation costs

降低运输成本，

and to completely reform banking and insurance industries.

并且彻底改革银行和保险业。

Commercialization is about taking agriculture

商业化就是要把农业

from too risky an endeavor to one where fortunes can be made.

从一个高风险的行业 变成可以致富的行业。

Commercialization is not about just farmers.

商业化不仅仅是农民的事。

Commercialization is about the entire agricultural system.

而是关乎整个农业系统。

But commercialization also means confronting the fact

但是商业化也意味着 我们要面对一个事实，

that we can no longer place the burden of growth

那就是我们不能把光把增产的重担

on small-scale farmers alone,

压在小农场主身上，

and accepting that commercial farms and the introduction of commercial farms

要接受一点，就是商业化农场的推行，

could provide certain economies of scale

可以提供规模经济，

that even small-scale farmers can leverage.

即使小农场主也可以加以利用。

It is not about small-scale farming or commercial agriculture,

不单单是小规模农业或者商业化农业，

or big agriculture.

或者大农业。

We can create the first successful models of the coexistence and success

我们可以让小规模农业和商业化农业共存，

of small-scale farming alongside commercial agriculture.

建立首批成功的案例。

This is because, for the first time ever,

因为有史以来第一次，

the most critical tool for success in the industry --

工业领域成功所需要的最重要的工具，

data and knowledge --

数据和知识，

is becoming cheaper by the day.

变得越来越便宜。

And very soon, it won't matter how much money you have

很快，在追求成功的过程中，

or how big you are

在为达成目标而寻求最佳选择的过程中，

to make optimal decisions and maximize probability of success

你有多少资金不再重要，

in reaching your intended goal.

经营者的规模大小也不重要。

Companies like Gro are working really hard to make this a reality.

像Gro这样的公司 正在努力将这一切变成现实。

So if we can commit to this new, bold initiative,

如果我们能大胆承诺一个全新的未来，

to this new, bold change,

承诺一个全新的、巨大的改变，

not only can we solve the 214-trillion gap that I talked about,

那么我们不光能解决 刚刚谈到的214万亿卡路里的问题，

but we can actually set the world on a whole new path.

我们甚至可以将世界带上新的道路。

India can remain food self-sufficient

印度的粮食依然可以自给自足，

and Africa can emerge as the world's next dark blue region.

非洲可以成为世界上 下一个深蓝色的区域。

The new question is,

新的问题是，

how do we produce 214 trillion calories

我们如何生产出这214万亿卡路里，

to feed 8.3 billion people by 2027?

到2027年养活83亿人？

We have the solution.

我们已经有方案了。

We just need to act on it.

我们只需要开始行动。

Thank you.

谢谢大家。

(Applause)

（掌声）