A global food crisis may be less than a decade away | Sara Menker

Prevoditelj: Mira Lenžer Newbould Recezent: Sanda L

Since 2009, the world has been stuck

Od 2009. u svijetu se ponavlja

on a single narrative around a coming global food crisis

jedna te ista priča o nadolazećoj globalnoj prehrambenoj krizi

and what we need to do to avoid it.

i o tome što učiniti kako bi se ona izbjegla.

How do we feed nine billion people by 2050?

Kako nahraniti devet milijardi ljudi do 2050.?

Every conference, podcast and dialogue around global food security

Svaka konferencija, podcast i razgovor o globalnoj sigurnosti opskrbe hranom

starts with this question

počinje tim pitanjem

and goes on to answer it

i nastavlja se odgovorom

by saying we need to produce 70 percent more food.

da je potrebno proizvoditi 70% više hrane.

The 2050 narrative started to evolve

Priča o 2050. počela se razvijati

shortly after global food prices hit all-time highs in 2008.

ubrzo nakon što su globalne cijene hrane dosegle rekordne visine 2008. godine.

People were suffering and struggling,

Ljudi su patili i borili se,

governments and world leaders

a vlade i svjetski čelnici

needed to show us that they were paying attention

trebali su nam pokazati da prate što se događa

and were working to solve it.

i rade na pronalasku rješenja.

The thing is, 2050 is so far into the future

Stvar je u tome da je 2050. toliko daleko

that we can't even relate to it,

da je ne možemo ni zamisliti,

and more importantly,

a još je važnije da će nas,

if we keep doing what we're doing,

ako nastavimo kao dosad,

it's going to hit us a lot sooner than that.

sustići i mnogo ranije.

I believe we need to ask a different question.

Mislim da si moramo postaviti drukčije pitanje.

The answer to that question

Odgovor na to pitanje

needs to be framed differently.

mora se drukčije formulirati.

If we can reframe the old narrative

Ako staru priču drukčije formuliramo

and replace it with new numbers

i zamijenimo je novim brojkama,

that tell us a more complete pictures,

koje nam daju puniju sliku,

numbers that everyone can understand

brojkama koje svi mogu razumijeti

and relate to,

i predočiti si,

we can avoid the crisis altogether.

onda krizu možemo posve izbjeći.

I was a commodities trader in my past life

U prošlosti sam se bavila trgovinom

and one of the things that I learned trading

i pritom sam naučila i to

is that every market has a tipping point,

da svako tržište ima svoju prijelomnu točku,

the point at which change occurs so rapidly

točku pri kojoj do promjene dolazi toliko brzo

that it impacts the world

da ona utječe na cijeli svijet

and things change forever.

te se stvari zauvijek promijene.

Think of the last financial crisis,

Sjetite se zadnje financijske krize,

or the dot-com crash.

ili "dot-com" kraha.

So here's my concern.

Evo što me brine.

We could have a tipping point

Do prijelomne točke moglo bi doći

in global food and agriculture

u globalnoj prehrambenoj i poljoprivrednoj industriji

if surging demand

ako naglo rastuća potražnja premaši

surpasses the agricultural system's structural capacity to produce food.

sposobnost poljoprivrednog sustava da proizvede hranu.

This means at this point supply can no longer keep up with demand

To znači da ponuda više ne može pratiti potražnju

despite exploding prices,

unatoč sve većim cijenama,

unless we can commit to some type of structural change.

osim ako se ne posvetimo nekakvoj strukturnoj promjeni.

This time around,

Ovoga puta

it won't be about stock markets and money.

neće se raditi o burzama i novcu,

It's about people.

već o ljudima.

People could starve and governments may fall.

Ljudi bi mogli umirati od gladi, a vlade bi se mogle rušiti.

This question of at what point does supply struggle

Pitanje do kada će ponuda uspijevati

to keep up with surging demand

zadovoljavati rastuću potražnju

is one that started off as an interest for me while I was trading

zainteresiralo me dok sam se bavila trgovinom

and became an absolute obsession.

i postalo je prava opsesija.

It went from interest to obsession

Iz interesa je preraslo u opsjednutost

when I realized through my research how broken the system was

kada sam, istraživanjem, shvatila da sustav ne funkcionira

and how very little data was being used to make such critical decisions.

i da se jako malo podataka koristi za donošenje tako važnih odluka.

That's the point I decided to walk away from a career on Wall Street

Tada sam odlučila napustiti karijeru na Wall Streetu

and start an entrepreneurial journey

i krenuti u poduzetničke vode

to start Gro Intelligence.

te pokrenuti Gro Intelligence.

At Gro, we focus on bringing this data

Tu smo usredotočeni na prikupljanje podataka

and doing the work to make it actionable,

i rad koji omogućuje

to empower decision-makers at every level.

osnažiti one koji donose odluke na svim razinama.

But doing this work,

No, pritom smo

we also realized that the world,

također shvatili da svijetu,

not just world leaders,

i to ne samo svjetskim čelnicima,

but businesses and citizens like every single person in this room,

već i poduzetnicima te građanima poput svih nas ovdje prisutnih,

lacked an actionable guide

nedostaju izvedive smjernice

on how we can avoid a coming global food security crisis.

o tome kako izbjeći nadolazeću globalnu krizu sigurnosti opskrbe hranom.

And so we built a model,

I tako smo izgradili model

leveraging the petabytes of data we sit on,

koji se oslanja na petabajtove podataka kojima raspolažemo

and we solved for the tipping point.

i riješili smo sve do prijelomne točke.

Now, no one knows we've been working on this problem

Nitko ne zna da smo radili na rješavanju ovog problema

and this is the first time that I'm sharing what we discovered.

i prvi put otkrivam naša saznanja.

We discovered that the tipping point is actually a decade from now.

Otkrili smo da će do prijelomne točke doći za deset godina.

We discovered that the world

Otkrili smo da će svijetu

will be short 214 trillion calories

nedostajati 214 bilijuna kalorija

by 2027.

do 2027.

The world is not in a position to fill this gap.

Svijet nije u mogućnosti popuniti tu prazninu.

Now, you'll notice

Uviđate

that the way I'm framing this is different from how I started,

da sad stvari postavljam na drugi način,

and that's intentional, because until now

i to činim namjerno, jer dosad se

this problem has been quantified using mass:

ovaj problem kvantificirao koristeći se masom:

think kilograms, tons, hectograms,

razmišljate u kilogramima, tonama, hektogramima,

whatever your unit of choice is in mass.

ovisno o vašoj mjernoj jedinici mase.

Why do we talk about food in terms of weight?

Zašto hranu izražavamo u jedinicama mase?

Because it's easy.

Jer je jednostavno.

We can look at a photograph and determine tonnage on a ship

Gledajući fotografiju, možemo odrediti tonažu broda

by using a simple pocket calculator.

uz pomoć malog džepnog kalkulatora.

We can weigh trucks, airplanes and oxcarts.

U stanju smo izvagati kamione, zrakoplove i zaprežna kola.

But what we care about in food is nutritional value.

Ali, u hrani nam je važna nutritivna vrijednost.

Not all foods are created equal,

Nije sva hrana jednaka,

even if they weigh the same.

čak i ako ima istu masu.

This I learned firsthand

To sam naučila iz prve ruke

when I moved from Ethiopia to the US for university.

kada sam iz Etiopije otišla studirati u SAD.

Upon my return back home,

Po povratku kući,

my father, who was so excited to see me,

moj me otac, sav uzbuđen što me vidi,

greeted me by asking why I was fat.

dočekao pitanjem zašto sam debela.

Now, turns out that eating

Izgleda da sam se, jedući

approximately the same amount of food as I did in Ethiopia, but in America,

otprilike istu količinu hrane u Americi kao i u Etiopiji,

had actually lent a certain fullness to my figure.

malo zaokružila.

This is why we should care about calories,

Zato se trebamo oslanjati na kalorije,

not about mass.

a ne na masu.

It is calories which sustain us.

Kalorije su te koje nas održavaju.

So 214 trillion calories is a very large number,

Dakle, 214 bilijuna kalorija ogromna je brojka,

and not even the most dedicated of us

a ni oni najpredaniji među nama

think in the hundreds of trillions of calories.

ne razmišljaju u stotinama bilijuna kalorija.

So let me break this down differently.

Stoga ću podatke predstaviti drukčije.

An alternative way to think about this

O tome možemo razmišljati i na drugi način,

is to think about it in Big Macs.

odnosno u Big Mac-ovima.

214 trillion calories.

214 bilijuna kalorija.

A single Big Mac has 563 calories.

Jedan Big Mac ima 563 kalorije.

That means the world will be short 379 billion Big Macs in 2027.

To znači da će svijetu nedostajati 379 milijardi Big Mac-ova 2027.g.

That is more Big Macs than McDonald's has ever produced.

To je više Big Mac-ova no što ih je McDonald's ikad proizveo.

So how did we get to these numbers in the first place?

Kako smo uopće došli do tih brojki?

They're not made up.

Nismo ih izmislili.

This map shows you where the world was 40 years ago.

Ova karta prikazuje svijet prije 40 godina.

It shows you net calorie gaps in every country in the world.

Pokazuje neto manjak kalorija svake države u svijetu.

Now, simply put,

Jednostavno rečeno,

this is just calories consumed in that country

to su samo utrošene kalorije

minus calories produced in that same country.

minus proizvedene kalorije u toj zemlji.

This is not a statement on malnutrition or anything else.

Ovo nije prikaz neishranjenosti ili bilo čega drugog.

It's simply saying how many calories are consumed in a single year

Samo ukazuje na to koliko se kalorija troši u jednoj godini

minus how many are produced.

umanjeno za količinu koja se proizvede.

Blue countries are net calorie exporters,

Plave zemlje su izvoznici neto kalorija,

or self-sufficient.

ili oni samodostatni.

They have some in storage for a rainy day.

Imaju zalihe hrane.

Red countries are net calorie importers.

Crvene zemlje su uvoznici neto kalorija.

The deeper, the brighter the red,

Što je crvena bolja tamnija,

the more you're importing.

više se uvozi.

40 years ago, such few countries were net exporters of calories,

Prije 40 godina samo neke zemlje bile su neto izvoznici kalorija,

I could count them with one hand.

mogla sam ih nabrojati na prste jedne ruke.

Most of the African continent,

Većina afričkog kontinenta,

Europe, most of Asia,

Europa, veći dio Azije,

South America excluding Argentina,

Južna Amerika osim Argentine,

were all net importers of calories.

bile su neto uvoznici kalorija.

And what's surprising is that China used to actually be food self-sufficient.

A iznenađujuće je da je Kina nekad imala dovoljno hrane za svoje potrebe.

India was a big net importer of calories.

Indija je bila veliki neto uvoznik kalorija.

40 years later, this is today.

40 godina kasnije, ovo je stanje danas.

You can see the drastic transformation that's occurred in the world.

Vidite drastičnu promjenu u svijetu.

Brazil has emerged as an agricultural powerhouse.

Brazil je postao nova poljoprivredna sila.

Europe is dominant in global agriculture.

Europa dominira u svjetskoj poljoprivredi.

India has actually flipped from red to blue.

Indija je iz crvenog prešla u plavo.

It's become food self-sufficient.

Postala je samodostatna u pogledu hrane.

And China went from that light blue

A Kina je iz svjetlo plave

to the brightest red that you see on this map.

prešla na najjaču crvenu na cijeloj karti.

How did we get here? What happened?

Kako smo do toga došli? Što se dogodilo?

So this chart shows you India and Africa.

Ovaj grafikon prikazuje Indiju i Afriku.

Blue line is India, red line is Africa.

Plava linija je Indija, crvena Afrika.

How is it that two regions that started off so similarly

Kako je moguće da dvije regije koje su toliko slično započele,

in such similar trajectories

sličnim putanjama,

take such different paths?

krenu toliko različitim putevima?

India had a green revolution.

Indija je doživjela zelenu revoluciju.

Not a single African country had a green revolution.

Nijedna afrička zemlja nije ju doživjela.

The net outcome?

Rezultat?

India is food self-sufficient

Indija je samodostatna u pogledu hrane

and in the past decade has actually been exporting calories.

te je u posljednjem desetljeću čak i izvozila kalorije.

The African continent now imports over 300 trillion calories a year.

Afrički kontinent sada uvozi više od 300 bilijuna kalorija godišnje.

Then we add China, the green line.

Zatim dodamo Kinu, zelena linija.

Remember the switch from the blue to the bright red?

Sjećate se prijelaza iz plave u žarku crvenu?

What happened and when did it happen?

Što se dogodilo i kada?

China seemed to be on a very similar path to India

Čini se da je Kina bila na sličnoj putanji kao i Indija

until the start of the 21st century,

sve do početka 21. stoljeća,

where it suddenly flipped.

kada se odjednom promijenila.

A young and growing population

Mlado i rastuće stanovništvo

combined with significant economic growth

te značajan gospodarski rast

made its mark with a big bang

doveli su do prekretnice,

and no one in the markets saw it coming.

koju nitko na tržištima nije naslutio.

This flip was everything to global agricultural markets.

Taj je pomak sve promijenio na svjetskim poljoprivrednim tržištima.

Luckily now, South America

Srećom, Južna Amerika

was starting to boom at the same time as China's rise,

počela je cvasti istovremeno s porastom u Kini

and so therefore, supply and demand were still somewhat balanced.

pa su ponuda i potražnja još uvijek bile uglavnom uravnotežene.

So the question becomes,

I sad se postavlja pitanje,

where do we go from here?

kamo dalje?

Oddly enough,

Neobično,

it's not a new story,

ali to nije ništa novo,

except this time it's not just a story of China.

osim što se ovoga puta ne radi samo o Kini.

It's a continuation of China,

U Kini se priča nastavlja,

an amplification of Africa

u Africi proširuje,

and a paradigm shift in India.

dok u Indiji dolazi do promjene obrasca.

By 2023,

Do 2023.,

Africa's population is forecasted to overtake that of India's and China's.

predviđa se da će stanovništvo Afrike premašiti ono Indije i Kine.

By 2023, these three regions combined

Do 2023., ove tri regije zajedno

will make up over half the world's population.

činit će više od polovine svjetskog stanovništva.

This crossover point starts to present really interesting challenges

Ta prijelazna točka donosi zaista zanimljive izazove

for global food security.

za svjetsku sigurnost opskrbe hranom.

And a few years later, we're hit hard with that reality.

I nekoliko godina kasnije, ta nas stvarnost sustiže.

What does the world look like in 10 years?

Kako će svijet izgledati za 10 godina?

So far, as I mentioned, India has been food self-sufficient.

Dosad je Indija bila samodostatna u pogledu hrane.

Most forecasters predict that this will continue.

Većina predviđa da će tako biti i dalje.

We disagree.

Mi se ne slažemo.

India will soon become a net importer of calories.

Indija će uskoro postati neto uvoznik kalorija.

This will be driven both by the fact

I to stoga što

that demand is growing from a population growth standpoint

raste potražnja, zbog porasta stanovništva

plus economic growth.

te gospodarskog rasta.

It will be driven by both.

Oba su faktora uzrok tome.

And even if you have optimistic assumptions

Čak i ako ste optimistični

around production growth,

oko rasta proizvodnje,

it will make that slight flip.

doći će do laganog pomaka.

That slight flip can have huge implications.

A taj lagani pomak može imati ogromne posljedice.

Next, Africa will continue to be a net importer of calories,

Zatim, Afrika će i dalje uvoziti kalorije,

again driven by population growth and economic growth.

opet zbog rasta stanovništva i gospodarskog rasta.

This is again assuming optimistic production growth assumptions.

I opet uzimajući u obzir optimistične pretpostavke rasta proizvodnje.

Then China,

Zatim Kina,

where population is flattening out,

u kojoj broj stanovništva stagnira,

calorie consumption will explode

potrošnja kalorija će drastično porasti,

because the types of calories consumed

jer će se sve više trošiti

are also starting to be higher-calorie-content foods.

hrana bogata kalorijama.

And so therefore,

Stoga,

these three regions combined

ove tri regije zajedno

start to present a really interesting challenge for the world.

postaju zanimljiv izazov svijetu.

Until now, countries with calorie deficits

Dosad su zemlje s manjkom kalorija

have been able to meet these deficits

taj manjak mogle nadoknaditi

by importing from surplus regions.

uvozom iz regija s viškom.

By surplus regions, I'm talking about

Pod regijama s viškom mislim na

North America, South America and Europe.

Sjevernu i Južnu Ameriku te Europu.

This line chart over here shows you

Ovaj grafikon prikazuje

the growth and the projected growth over the next decade of production

rast i predviđeni rast za naredno desetljeće u proizvodnji

from North America, South America and Europe.

u Sjevernoj i Južnoj Americi te Europi.

What it doesn't show you

No, ne pokazuje

is that most of this growth is actually going to come from South America.

da će najveći dio tog rasta, zapravo, doći iz Južne Amerike.

And most of this growth

I većina tog rasta

is going to come at the huge cost of deforestation.

ostvarit će se nauštrb krčenja šuma.

And so when you look at the combined demand increase

Kad gledamo svu veću potražnju

coming from India, China and the African continent,

iz Indije, Kine i Afrike

and look at it versus the combined increase in production

i usporedimo je sa sve većom proizvodnjom

coming from India, China, the African continent,

u Indiji, Kini i Africi,

North America, South America and Europe,

Sjevernoj i Južnoj Americi te Europi,

you are left with a 214-trillion-calorie deficit,

ostaje nam manjak od 214 bilijuna kalorija

one we can't produce.

koje ne možemo proizvesti.

And this, by the way, is actually assuming we take all the extra calories

I to ako pretpostavimo da sav višak kalorija,

produced in North America, South America and Europe

proizveden u Sjevernoj i Južnoj Americi te Europi

and export them solely to India, China and Africa.

izvezemo samo u Indiju, Kinu i Afriku.

What I just presented to you is a vision of an impossible world.

Upravo sam vam iznijela viziju nemogućeg svijeta.

We can do something to change that.

Možemo nešto učiniti da to promijenimo.

We can change consumption patterns,

Možemo promijeniti obrasce potrošnje,

we can reduce food waste,

smanjiti rasipanje hrane,

or we can make a bold commitment

ili se hrabro obvezati

to increasing yields exponentially.

da ćemo znatno povećati prinose.

Now, I'm not going to go into discussing

Neću sada govoriti

changing consumption patterns or reducing food waste,

o promjeni obrazaca potrošnje, smanjenju bacanja hrane,

because those conversations have been going on for some time now.

jer se o tome raspravlja već neko vrijeme.

Nothing has happened.

Ništa se nije dogodilo.

Nothing has happened because those arguments

Ništa se nije dogodilo zato što se u tim raspravama

ask the surplus regions to change their behavior

od regija s viškom traži da promijene ponašanje

on behalf of deficit regions.

u ime deficitarnih regija.

Waiting for others to change their behavior

Čekati da drugi promjene ponašanje,

on your behalf, for your survival,

zbog vas i radi vašeg opstanka,

is a terrible idea.

grozna je ideja.

It's unproductive.

To nije produktivno.

So I'd like to suggest an alternative that comes from the red regions.

Stoga bih predložila drugo rješenje koje dolazi iz crvenih regija.

China, India, Africa.

Iz Kine, Indije i Afrike.

China is constrained in terms of how much more land it actually has

Kina je ograničena u pogledu površina

available for agriculture,

raspoloživih za obradu zemlje,

and it has massive water resource availability issues.

a ima i ogromne probleme s dostupnošću vodenih resursa.

So the answer really lies in India and in Africa.

Stoga odgovor leži u Indiji i Africi.

India has some upside in terms of potential yield increases.

Indija ima potencijal za porast prinosa.

Now this is the gap between its current yield

To je jaz između trenutačnog prinosa

and the theoretical maximum yield it can achieve.

i teoretskog najvećeg prinosa koji može postići.

It has some unfarmed arable land remaining, but not much,

Preostalo je još nešto malo neobrađenih oranica,

India is quite land-constrained.

ali Indija je tu prilično ograničena.

Now, the African continent, on the other hand,

Afrički kontinent, s druge strane,

has vast amounts of arable land remaining

raspolaže ogromnim obradivim površinama

and significant upside potential in yields.

i ima znatni potencijal rasta prinosa.

Somewhat simplified picture here,

Nešto pojednostavljena slika,

but if you look at sub-Saharan African yields in corn today,

no, ako pogledate kakav je danas prinos kukuruza u supsaharskoj Africi,

they are where North American yields were in 1940.

vidjet ćete da je isti onome u Sjevernoj Americi 1940.

We don't have 70-plus years to figure this out,

Nemamo 70 i više godina da to riješimo,

so it means we need to try something new

znači moramo pokušati nešto novo

and we need to try something different.

i nešto drugačije.

The solution starts with reforms.

Rješenje kreće s reformama.

We need to reform and commercialize

Moramo uvesti reforme i komercijalizirati

the agricultural industries in Africa

poljoprivredne industrije u Africi

and in India.

i Indiji.

Now, by commercialization --

Pod komercijalizacijom

commercialization is not about commercial farming alone.

ne mislim samo na komercijalne poljoprivredne djelatnosti,

Commercialization is about leveraging data

već i na upotrebu podataka

to craft better policies,

u cilju izrade boljih politika,

to improve infrastructure,

poboljšanja infrastrukture,

to lower the transportation costs

smanjenja troškova prijevoza

and to completely reform banking and insurance industries.

i provođenja potpune reforme industrija bankarstva i osiguranja.

Commercialization is about taking agriculture

Komercijalizacija znači i usmjeravanje poljoprivrede

from too risky an endeavor to one where fortunes can be made.

s prerizičnih pothvata na one koji donose ogromnu dobit.

Commercialization is not about just farmers.

Komercijalizacija se ne odnosi samo na poljoprivrednike.

Commercialization is about the entire agricultural system.

Odnosi se na cijeli poljoprivredni sustav.

But commercialization also means confronting the fact

Ali ona znači i da se moramo suočiti s činjenicom

that we can no longer place the burden of growth

da više ne možemo teret rasta prepustiti

on small-scale farmers alone,

samo malim poljoprivrednicima

and accepting that commercial farms and the introduction of commercial farms

te prihvatiti da komercijalne farme i njihovo uvođenje

could provide certain economies of scale

mogu dovesti do određenih ekonomskih razmjera,

that even small-scale farmers can leverage.

čime mogu profitirati čak i mali poljoprivrednici.

It is not about small-scale farming or commercial agriculture,

Ne radi se o malim poljoprivrednicima, ni o komercijalnoj poljoprivredi,

or big agriculture.

ili o velikim poljoprivrednicima.

We can create the first successful models of the coexistence and success

Možemo stvoriti prve uspješne modele suživota i uspjeha

of small-scale farming alongside commercial agriculture.

između malih poljoprivrednika i komercijalne poljoprivrede.

This is because, for the first time ever,

I to stoga što, po prvi puta u povijesti,

the most critical tool for success in the industry --

najvažnije sredstvo za uspjeh u industriji,

data and knowledge --

podaci i znanje,

is becoming cheaper by the day.

postaju svakim danom sve jeftiniji.

And very soon, it won't matter how much money you have

I uskoro pitanje koliko novca imate

or how big you are

ili koliko ste veliki

to make optimal decisions and maximize probability of success

neće biti presudno za donošenje optimalnih odluka i poboljšanje izgleda

in reaching your intended goal.

za uspješno ostvarivanje cilja.

Companies like Gro are working really hard to make this a reality.

Društva poput Gro-a naporno rade na ostvarenju toga.

So if we can commit to this new, bold initiative,

Ako se možemo posvetiti toj novoj, smjeloj inicijativi,

to this new, bold change,

toj novoj i smjeloj promjeni,

not only can we solve the 214-trillion gap that I talked about,

ne samo da možemo riješiti manjak od 214 bilijuna kalorija,

but we can actually set the world on a whole new path.

već možemo svijet usmjeriti u potpuno novom pravcu.

India can remain food self-sufficient

Indija može i dalje zadovoljavati svoje potrebe za hranom,

and Africa can emerge as the world's next dark blue region.

a Afrika može postati sljedeća tamno plava regija.

The new question is,

Novo je pitanje,

how do we produce 214 trillion calories

kako proizvesti 214 bilijuna kalorija

to feed 8.3 billion people by 2027?

da nahranimo 8,3 milijardi ljudi do 2027.?

We have the solution.

Imamo rješenje.

We just need to act on it.

Samo moramo djelovati.

Thank you.

Hvala.

(Applause)

(Pljesak)