Kary Mullis: Celebrating the scientific experiment

翻译人员: Xiaoqiao Xie 校对人员: Bill Hsiung

I'll just start talking about the 17th century.

（今天）我想先从十七世纪谈起，

I hope nobody finds that offensive.

希望没人会觉得没有意思。

I -- you know, when I -- after I had invented PCR,

我 — 你们知道，当我 — 在我发明了 PCR 之后，

I kind of needed a change.

我希望生活有点变化。

And I moved down to La Jolla and learned how to surf.

所以我就搬到了 La Jolla，开始学冲浪。

And I started living down there on the beach for a long time.

我在那里的海滩上住了很久。

And when surfers are out waiting

当冲浪爱好者们在海边

for waves,

等浪来的时候

you probably wonder, if you've never been out there, what are they doing?

要是你从没去过那里你可能会好奇，他们都怎么消磨时间呢？

You know, sometimes there's a 10-, 15-minute break out there

要知道，常常要等十分钟到十五分钟

when you're waiting for a wave to come in.

海浪才会来。

They usually talk about the 17th century.

他们常常谈起十七世纪（开玩笑地说）。

You know, they get a real bad rap in the world.

我们知道，这些冲浪的人不太招人待见，

People think they're sort of lowbrows.

大家都觉得他们是粗人（其实不然）。

One day, somebody suggested I read this book.

有一天有个人推荐我读一本书，

It was called --

叫做 —

it was called "The Air Pump,"

这本书叫做「空气泵的故事」，

or something like "The Leviathan and The Air Pump."

或者是类似「利韦亚坦和空气泵」这样的一个名字。

It was a real weird book about the 17th century.

这本怪怪的书讲的是十七世纪（人们怎么从事科研）的故事。

And I realized, the roots

我才发觉，我脑海里的

of the way I sort of thought

好像是理所当然的思维方式

was just the only natural way to think about things.

的根源

That -- you know, I was born thinking about things that way,

其实（是在十七世纪产生的）— 你要知道，我生来就是这么想事情的，

and I had always been like a little scientist guy.

我一直就是一个小小科学家。

And when I went to find out something,

当我想研究什么的时候，

I used scientific methods. I wasn't real surprised,

我就自己会用科学的方法去研究。我一点都没有恍然大悟的感觉，

you know, when they first told me how --

当别人第一次告诉我说应该怎么 —

how you were supposed to do science,

应该怎么搞科研的时候，

because I'd already been doing it for fun and whatever.

因为我一直以来就是这么作的，用正确的科研方法才好玩。

But it didn't -- it never occurred to me

但是其实这种正确的科研方法 — 我可从没想到

that it had to be invented

有人还得把它发明出来呢。

and that it had been invented

而且这个发明还是仅仅

only 350 years ago.

三百五十年前的事儿。

You know, it was --

要知道，这个发明可是 —

like it happened in England, and Germany, and Italy

就像是它一下子在英国，德国和意大利

sort of all at the same time.

都一下子被发明出来了。

And the story of that,

这背后的故事

I thought, was really fascinating.

我认为，特别有意思。

So I'm going to talk a little bit about that,

我这儿就给你们稍微讲讲科研方法是怎么被「发明」出来的，

and what exactly is it that scientists are supposed to do.

然后再讲讲科学工作者到底应该怎么做科研。

And it's, it's a kind of --

这个故事，有点 —

You know, Charles I got beheaded

怎么说呢，查理一世上了断头台。

somewhere early in the 17th century.

这是大概十七世纪早期的时候。

And the English set up Cromwell

之后克伦威尔在英国掌权，

and a whole bunch of Republicans or whatever,

同时掌权的还有一帮共和党人。

and not the kind of Republicans we had.

当然了，和我们现在有的共和党人士大不相同。（笑声）

They changed the government, and it didn't work.

他们试图改革政府，没有成功，

And

后来

Charles II, the son,

查理二世，查理一世的儿子，

was finally put back on the throne of England.

重新上台在英国掌权。

He was really nervous, because his dad had been,

他当然是很坐如针毡的，因为他父亲查理一世

you know, beheaded for being the King of England

你知道，才被砍了头，就因为他是英国国王。

And he was nervous about the fact

所以查理二世对在酒吧之类的地方

that conversations that got going

进行的那些关于哲学啦思想啦之类的讨论

in, like, bars and stuff

很是紧张，生怕这些谈话

would turn to --

会促成（新的革命运动）—

this is kind of -- it's hard to believe,

这种事情 — 说起来有点不可思议，

but people in the 17th century in England

但是十七世纪英国的群众

were starting to talk about, you know,

已经开始谈论，你知道，

philosophy and stuff in bars.

在酒吧之类的地方开展哲学和科学思想的讨论。

They didn't have TV screens,

那时他们也没有电视大屏幕，

and they didn't have any football games to watch.

也看不成橄榄球赛，

And they would get really pissy,

所以就是辩论。辩论就会有意见分歧，

and all of a sudden people would spill out into the street and fight

有分歧就会有争斗。时不时地人们就跳到街上去

about issues like whether or not

为了不同意见打架。

it was okay if Robert Boyle

比如为了 Robert Boyle 应不应该发明

made a device called the vacuum pump.

一个仪器叫真空泵之类的。

Now, Boyle was a friend of Charles II.

那时吧，Boyle 是查理二世的朋友，

He was a Christian guy during the weekends,

他周末是个挺虔诚的天主教徒，

but during the week he was a scientist.

平时就偷偷搞科研。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

Which was -- back then it was

那时的情况吧 — 回头看看

sort of, you know, well, you know --

你知道 —（挺不容易的）

if you made this thing -- he made this little device,

如果你发明了这样的新鲜东西（人们还反对）— 就像他发明了这个小小的真空泵，

like kind of like a bicycle pump

其实就像是个自行车打气筒，

in reverse that could suck all the air out of --

只不过是反过来工作的，把空气都抽出去 —

you know what a bell jar is? One of these things,

大家听说过钟形玻璃罩吧？钟形玻璃罩是这样的一个东西，

you pick it up, put it down, and it's got a seal,

你把它拿起来，压回去，就密封住了，

and you can see inside of it,

但你还是可以看穿里面，

so you can see what's going on inside this thing.

这样就可以观察里面发生了什么。

But what he was trying to do was to pump all the air out of there,

他所做的实验就是把空气从这样的一个钟形玻璃罩里全抽出来，

and see what would happen inside there.

然后看看里面发生了什么。

I mean, the first -- I think one of the first experiments he did

我想，他做的第一个实验

was he put a bird in there.

是他在里面扣了一只鸟。

And people in the 17th century,

那时十七世纪的人，

they didn't really understand the same way we do

他们不像我们，

about you know, this stuff is

知道空气是什么

a bunch of different kinds of molecules,

空气不过是一堆不同的分子，

and we breathe it in for a purpose and all that.

我们可以呼吸进去，在体内产生作用。

I mean, fish don't know much about water,

就好像，鱼并不怎么知道水到底是什么，

and people didn't know much about air.

那时的人也没有空气这个概念。

But both started exploring it.

但是他们刚开始研究了。

One thing, he put a bird in there, and he pumped all the air out,

第一，Boyle 放一只鸟进去，把空气全抽出来，

and the bird died. So he said, hmm...

鸟当然就死了。所以他就想： “嗯 ...”

He said -- he called what he'd done as making --

他想 — 他管这个他做的装置叫 —

they didn't call it a vacuum pump at the time.

那时候还没有真空泵这一说，

Now you call it a vacuum pump; he called it a vacuum.

现在我们称这个东西真空泵，那时候他就称其为“真空”。

Right? And immediately,

好吧？结果马上

he got into trouble with the local clergy

他就倒了霉，当地的神职人员

who said, you can't make a vacuum.

说，你不能做这个“真空”。

Ah, uh --

这真是 —

(Laughter)

（笑声）

Aristotle said that nature abhors one.

亚里士多德说过，大自然不喜欢“真空”，

I think it was a poor translation, probably,

我认为这是个误译，很有可能，

but people relied on authorities like that.

但是人们宁愿盲信权威。

And you know, Boyle says, well, shit.

这样，Boyle 就说，坏了，

I make them all the time.

我整天做这些。

I mean, whatever that is that kills the bird --

我是说，不管是什么弄死了那只鸟 —

and I'm calling it a vacuum.

我就管它叫真空。

And the religious people said that

宗教人士就说，

if God wanted you to make --

如果上帝想让你做真空 —

I mean, God is everywhere,

要知道，（这些人认为）上帝无处不在，

that was one of their rules, is God is everywhere.

这是他们的一个原则，上帝无处不在。

And a vacuum -- there's nothing in a vacuum,

而真空 — 他们认为真空中什么也没有，

so you've -- God couldn't be in there.

所以你就（没有上帝了）— 上帝就不可能存在在真空里了。

So therefore the church said that you can't make a vacuum, you know.

所以就这样教堂就说你不许作真空出来，你知道。

And Boyle said, bullshit.

于是 Boyle 就说，胡说，

I mean, you want to call it Godless,

我是说，你要是想说真空是没有上帝的，

you know, you call it Godless.

你知道，要是你说真空是没有上帝的，（那也行，）

But that's not my job. I'm not into that.

但是这不管我的事。我对这个不感兴趣。

I do that on the weekend. And like --

我只在周末考虑上帝的事情，像这种事 —

what I'm trying to do is figure out what happens

我想做的只是弄明白这是怎么回事，

when you suck everything out of a compartment.

当你把一个容器里的东西都吸出来的时候发生了什么。

And he did all these cute little experiments.

所以他做了一些有趣的小实验。

Like he did one with -- he had a little wheel,

比如他做了一个实验，用一个小风车，

like a fan, that was

就像是一个小风扇，

sort of loosely attached, so it could spin by itself.

松松地挂着，这样它就能够自己转。

He had another fan opposed to it

他还在对面放了另一个风扇，

that he had like a --

这样他就有 —

I mean, the way I would have done this would be, like, a rubber band,

我是说，要是我的话我会用个皮筋把它们连起来，

and, you know, around a tinker toy kind of fan.

你知道，就像一个风扇小玩具。

I know exactly how he did it; I've seen the drawings.

我其实知道他是怎么做的，我见过他画的图。

It's two fans, one which he could turn from outside

两个风扇，其中一个风扇，在他抽出真空之后，

after he got the vacuum established,

他可以在真空器外面启动，

and he discovered that if he pulled all the air out of it,

这样他发现如果他把所有的空气都抽出来，

the one fan would no longer turn the other one, right?

一个风扇就不能带动另一个了。对吧？

Something was missing, you know. I mean, these are --

这就说明有什么东西被抽走了，要知道，我是说，这些事 —

it's kind of weird to think that someone had to do an experiment to show that,

想想有人需要做这些实验来证明空气的存在是有点怪怪的，

but that was what was going on at the time.

但是当时的确是这种情况。

And like, there was big arguments about it

同时，当时还会有这些大争论，关于

in the -- you know, the gin houses and in the coffee shops and stuff.

— 你要知道，在酒吧和咖啡馆之类的地方。

And Charles

后来查理二世，

started not liking that.

他开始不喜欢这些讨论了。

Charles II was kind of saying, you know, you should keep that --

查理二世就说，你知道，Boyle，你应该（把这些实验）保密 —

let's make a place where you can do this stuff

我们应该找个地方，一个地方你可以做实验，

where people don't get so -- you know,

但是外人不会变得 — 你知道，

we don't want the -- we don't want to get the people mad at me again. And so --

我们不想 — 我们不应该惹别人再不高兴了。同时 —

because when they started talking about religion

因为他们开始讨论宗教啦，

and science and stuff like that,

科学啦这些东西，

that's when it had sort of gotten his father in trouble.

这些从前给他爸爸惹上麻烦了。

所以

And so,

Charles said, I'm going to put up the money

查理二世提出，他会拿一笔钱出来，

give you guys a building,

给他们个地方，

come here and you can meet in the building,

他们可以去那里集会，

but just don't talk about religion in there.

条件是别说宗教的坏话。

And that was fine with Boyle.

Boyle 也同意了。

He said, OK, we're going to start having these meetings.

Boyle 说，好吧，我们会开始集会，

任何想搞科研的人（都可以去）—

And anybody who wants to do science is --

this is about the time that Isaac Newton was starting to whip out

要知道这是正当牛顿开始

a lot of really interesting things.

发表很多很有趣的研究结论的时期，

And there was all kind of people that would come to the Royal Society,

有很多不同的背景的人都想加入这个「皇家社团」。

they called it. You had to be dressed up pretty well.

他们这么叫它。你得穿得很正式。

It wasn't like a TED conference.

那时不像现在 TED，

That was the only criteria, was that you be --

那时唯一的标准，就是你得 —

you looked like a gentleman, and they'd let anybody could come.

你只要看起来像个绅士，他们就让任何人进来。

You didn't have to be a member then.

你不用成为会员什么的。

And so, they would come in and you would do --

而且，来的人都要 —

Anybody that was going to show an experiment,

每个进来的人都得展示一个科学实验，

which was kind of a new word at the time,

科学实验当时还是个新名词，

demonstrate some principle,

得说明一些原理性的东西。

they had to do it on stage, where everybody could see it.

人们得上一个讲台，大家都看得见的，

So they were --

他们就 —

the really important part of this was,

最重要的一点就在这里，

you were not supposed to talk

你是不能说这些实验要用来干什么的，

about final causes, for instance.

就像实验的用处什么的。

And God was out of the picture.

同时也不能谈上帝。

The actual nature of reality was not at issue.

不能谈到底这个自然的真相是什么。

You're not supposed to talk about the absolute nature of anything.

你不许谈任何有关绝对的自然原理之类的事情。

You were not supposed to talk about anything

你不许作任何

that you couldn't demonstrate.

你无法用实验证明的结论。

So if somebody could see it, you could say, here's how the machine works,

所以如果有人看，你可以说，看这个机器是怎么工作的，

here's what we do, and then here's what happens.

如果我们这么做，这个现象就发生了，

And seeing what happens, it was OK

然后人们就看得见这个现象发生了。

to generalize,

归纳总结是允许的。

and say, I'm sure that this will happen anytime

你也可以说，我保证任何一次我做这样的事情，

we make one of these things.

这个现象都会发生。

And so you can start making up some rules.

接下来你就可以总结一些既定规则。

You say, anytime you have a vacuum state,

你可以说，任何时候我们有真空，

you will discover that one wheel will not turn another one,

一个风车都不能带动另一个转起来。

if the only connection between them

如果没有别的东西把它们连起来，

is whatever was there before the vacuum. That kind of thing.

只是靠在抽真空之前的东西（空气）的话。这样的结论（你可以下）。

Candles can't burn in a vacuum,

蜡烛在真空中不能燃烧，

therefore, probably sparklers wouldn't either.

所以，很可能也没有电火花。

It's not clear; actually sparklers will,

这个当时并不清楚。其实是电火花是点的着的，

but they didn't know that.

但是当时他们不知道电火花。

They didn't have sparklers. But, they --

他们当时还没有所谓电火花。但是他们 —

(Laughter)

（笑声）

-- you can make up rules, but they have to relate

他们可以推广这些原则，但是他们必须

only to the things that you've been able to demonstrate.

局限在那些已经被实验科学证明的事情上。

And most the demonstrations had to do with visuals.

而且绝大多数的科学实验都得是看得见的，

Like if you do an experiment on stage,

就好像如果你在讲台上做个实验，

and nobody can see it, they can just hear it, they would probably think you were freaky.

人们看不到（发生的现象），他们只能听得见，他们会觉得你很反常。

I mean, reality is what you can see.

我的意思是，事实是你能看得见的东西。

That wasn't an explicit rule in the meeting,

这倒不是在集会上唯一的原则，

but I'm sure that was part of it, you know. If people hear voices,

但是我相信这是其中一个。你知道，如果人们只能听见人说话，

and they can't see and associate it with somebody,

但他们看不见人影，不能建立起声音和人之间的联系

that person's probably not there.

那么那个人就不存在。

But the general idea that you could only --

总的来说就是你只可以 —

you could only really talk about things in that place

你只可以谈当时存在的东西

that had some kind of experimental basis.

有实验根据的东西。

It didn't matter what Thomas Hobbes,

不管 Thomas Hobbes 怎么评论的，

who was a local philosopher,

他是个当地的哲学家，

said about it, you know,

你知道，

because you weren't going to be talking final causes.

因为你是不会谈论这些原理的用处的。

What's happening here,

在十七世纪的中期，

in the middle of the 17th century,

发生的这些事，

was that what became my field --

就是后来变成我的领域的东西 —

science, experimental science --

科学，实验科学 —

was pulling itself away,

开始发展了。

and it was in a physical way, because we're going to do it in this room over here,

而且这是现实发生的事，因为人们就在那个房间里确实做了这些实验。

but it was also what -- it was an amazing thing that happened.

这是很 — 这真的是很神奇的事情。

Science had been all interlocked

科学开始和很多东西联系起来，

with theology, and philosophy,

像是神学，哲学，

and -- and -- and mathematics,

还有 — 还有数学。

which is really not science.

数学其实不是实验科学。

But experimental science had been tied up with all those things.

但是实验科学开始和这些学科联系起来，

And the mathematics part

数学这部分

and the experimental science part

和实验课学这部分

was pulling away from philosophy.

开始和哲学分离。

And -- things --

于是 — 事情变得 —

we never looked back.

我们再没回到原点。

It's been so cool since then.

从那以后搞科学研究就并不是个问题了。

I mean, it just -- it just -- untangled a thing that was really impeding

我是说，它就 — 它就 — 不再和那些

technology from being developed.

阻碍科技发展的事情连在一起了。

And, I mean, everybody in this room --

我是说，这房间里的每个人 —

now, this is 350 short years ago.

短短三百五十年前，

Remember, that's a short time.

记住，（和人类的历史相比）仅仅这么短的时间，

It was 300,000, probably, years ago

现代人类的历史有三十万年，差不多吧，

that most of us, the ancestors of most of us in this room

这里绝大多数人的祖先是

came up out of Africa and turned to the left.

从非洲大陆来的，向西方迁移，来到了美洲。

You know, the ones that turned to the right, there are some of those

那些向东方迁移的人，今天

in the Japanese translation.

就坐在日文翻译中（成为亚洲人）。

But that happened very -- a long time ago

但是这是很久很久以前的事情。

compared to

和三百五十年的短短时间相比，

350 short years ago.

人类历史是很长的。

But in that 350 years,

但是仅在这三百五十年间，

the place has just undergone a lot of changes.

我们生活的地方发生了很大的变化。

In fact, everybody in this room probably,

事实上，很可能每个这屋子里的人身上都有，

especially if you picked up your bag --

特别是如果你领到了TED发给你的“锦囊”的话 —

some of you, I know, didn't pick up your bags --

有些人，我知道，没有去领取TED的“锦囊” —

but if you picked up your bag, everybody in this room

但是如果你领到了，这屋里的每个人

has got in their pocket, or back in their room,

口袋里都有，或者在你们休息的房间里，

something

都拥有一些东西是

that 350 years ago,

在三百五十年前

kings would have gone to war to have.

那些国王们不惜发起战争来拥有的。

I mean, if you can think how important --

我是指，如果你想想这些东西有多重要 —

If you have a GPS system and there are no satellites,

如果你有个卫星导航系统，当然没有卫星，

it's not going to be much use. But, like --

那就没什么用了，但是，如果 —

but, you know, if somebody had a GPS system

你知道，如果那时有人有个卫星导航系统，

in the 17th century

在十七世纪，

some king would have gotten together an army

有些国王是真的会召集起来军队

and gone to get it, you know. If that person --

来抢的。你知道，如果这个人 —

Audience: For the teddy bear? The teddy bear?

（观众发问：“如果我有个玩具熊会怎么样？玩具熊？”）

Kary Mullis: They might have done it for the teddy bear, yeah.

(Kary Mullis回答：）那他们可能也会吧。

But -- all of us own stuff.

但是 — 为了我们有的这些高科技的东西他们会的。

I mean, individuals own things

我指的是你们每个人都有的东西。

that kings would have definitely gone to war to get.

那些国王绝对会发动战争来抢。

And this is just 350 years.

而这个差距仅仅是三百五十年来的发展。

Not a whole lot of people doing this stuff.

这还不是说有很多人搞科研。

You know, the important people --

要知道，只有很重要的人 —

you can almost read about their lives,

你差不多可以查得到每个人的生命历程，

about all the really important people that made advances, you know.

追星一样追随这些很重要的，有极大贡献的人们的故事。

And, I mean --

所以我说 —

this kind of stuff, you know, all this stuff

这些科学研究，你知道，科学研究

came from that separation

从这些很不搭干的事情上发展而来，

of this little sort of thing that we do --

我们做的这些小实验（都是很有意义的）—

now I, when I was a boy

当我还是个小男孩，

was born sort of with this idea

我生来就有这个想法，

that if you want to know something --

如果你想知道什么事（你就要自己做实验）—

you know, maybe it's because my old man was gone a lot,

要知道，我爸爸常不在家，

and my mother didn't really know much science,

我妈妈也不懂什么科学，

but I thought if you want to know something about stuff,

但是我就懂得如果你想知道些什么，

you do it -- you make an experiment, you know.

你就得动手 — 得做实验，你知道。

You get -- you get, like --

你就有 — 你就有 —

I just had a natural feeling for science

我就是有这种自然而然的科学思想，

and setting up experiments. I thought that was the way everybody had always thought.

知道怎么做实验。我以为人人都是这么想的，

I thought that anybody with any brains will do it that way.

我真的以为每个有脑袋的人都会这么做的。

It isn't true. I mean, there's a lot of people --

当然不是。我是说，有很多人（不是这样）—

You know, I was one of those scientists that was --

你要知道，我是一个这样的科学家 —

got into trouble the other night at dinner

前几天晚饭的时候我还遇到麻烦，

because of the post-modernism thing.

因为我讨论了关于后现代派的事情。

And I didn't mean, you know -- where is that lady?

我其实不是要招麻烦（我只是喜欢探讨）— 那个和我争论的女士在哪里？

Audience: Here.

（观众说：“在这儿。”）

(Laughter)

（笑声）

KM: I mean, I didn't really think of that as an argument

（Kary Mullis说）我是说，我并不觉得这是个争论，

只是个很活泼的讨论。

so much as just a lively discussion.

I didn't take it personally, but --

我并不放个人感情进去，但是（别人不然） —

I just -- I had -- I naively had thought,

我只是 — 我以为 — 我很天真地认为（大家都是这样的），

until this surfing experience started me into the 17th century,

知道冲浪的时候我听说了有关十七世纪的故事，

I'd thought that's just the way people thought,

我以前一直以为人们一直都是有科学思想的，

and everybody did, and they recognized reality

人人都有，他们认识世界，

by what they could see or touch or feel or hear.

是通过他们能看见的东西，能触摸的东西，或者感觉到的东西，或者听到的东西。

At any rate, when I was a boy,

在我是个小男孩时，无时无刻 —

I, like, for instance, I had this --

我 — 比如，有这个事 —

I got this little book from Fort Sill, Oklahoma --

我从俄克拉何马州的福特锡尔镇那里得到了一本手册 —

This is about the time that George Dyson's dad

是讲在 George Dyson 的爸爸（Freeman Dyson， 理论物理学家和数学家）

was starting to blow nuclear --

如何开始核试验的 —

thinking about blowing up nuclear rockets and stuff.

他当时在研究核火箭。

I was thinking about making my own little rockets.

于是我也想自己做个火箭。

And I knew that frogs -- little frogs --

而且我想到了用青蛙 — 小青蛙 —

had aspirations of space travel,

也应该有太空历险的远大志向，

just like people. And I --

像我一样。所以我 —

(Laughter)

（笑声）

I was looking for a --

我就开始找一个 —

a propulsion system

推动器

that would like, make a rocket, like,

一个我能用来做火箭的，

maybe about four feet high go up a couple of miles.

差不多四英尺高，能冲几英里高的火箭。

And, I mean, that was my sort of goal.

我是说，这就是我的远大志向。

I wanted it to go out of sight and then I wanted this little parachute

我想让火箭冲上云霄，然后乘一个小降落伞回来

to come back with the frog in it.

带着青蛙回来。

And -- I -- I --

而我 — 我 —

I got this book from Fort Sill, Oklahoma,

我读了这个从俄克拉何马州福特锡尔镇那里来的书，

where there's a missile base.

那里有个导弹基地，

They send it out for amateur rocketeers,

他们会把这些小手册给那些业余火箭爱好者，

and

而且，

it said in there

书里还写着，

do not ever heat a mixture of potassium perchlorate and sugar.

永远不要加热高氯酸钾和糖的混合物。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

You know,

你要知道，

that's what you call a lead.

这就是通常我们说的启发。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

You sort of -- now you say, well, let's see if I can

（像这种情况）你就会 — 你就会说，好吧，让我试试看能不能

get hold of some potassium chlorate and sugar, perchlorate and sugar,

搞到一些氯化钾和糖，高氯化钾和糖，

and heat it; it would be interesting to see what it is they don't want me to do,

然后一加热，看看到底他们不想让我做的是什么，一定有趣。

and what it is going to -- and how is it going to work.

而且看看会发生什么 — 到底是怎么发生的。

And we didn't have --

而且我们没有 —

like, my mother

比如说，我妈妈

presided over the back yard

会从楼上的窗户

from an upstairs window,

往下看，

where she would be ironing or something like that.

当她熨衣服或者做家务时。

And she was usually just sort of keeping an eye on,

她常会注意我们，

and if there was any puffs of smoke out there,

如果有什么烟呀之类的

she'd lean out and admonish us all

她会俯身和我们说，

not to blow our eyes out. That was her --

别把眼睛炸瞎了！这就是她的 —

You know, that was kind of the worst thing that could happen to us.

你知道，这就是她以为能发生的最坏的事情。

That's why I thought, as long as I don't blow my eyes out...

这就是为什么我想，只要我不会把眼睛炸瞎，

I may not care about the fact

我就不用担心

that it's prohibited from heating this solution.

假设这个混合物是不允许的。

I'm going to do it carefully, but I'll do it.

我只需要很小心，但是我还是要做这个实验。

It's like anything else that's prohibited:

这就像是别的那些不被允许的事情，

you do it behind the garage.

关键是偷偷地在车库后面（别人看不见的地方）做。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

So, I went to the drug store

所以我就去了药店，

and I tried to buy some potassium perchlorate

试图买高氯酸钾。

and it wasn't unreasonable then for a kid

那时候一个孩子进药店买化学药品

to walk into a drug store and buy chemicals.

没什么大不了的。

Nowadays, it's no ma'am,

要是现在，那就是“没门，

check your shoes. And like --

脱鞋检查”。而且 —

(Laughter)

（笑声）

But then it wasn't -- they didn't have any, but the guy had --

那时候也不是说 — 他们根本没有那些化学药剂。那个人有 —

I said, what kind of salts of potassium do you have? You know.

我进去问：你们有什么样的钾盐？你知道，

And he had potassium nitrate.

他有硝酸钾。

And I said, that might do the same thing, whatever it is.

我就说，那应该也行。什么钾盐都好。

I'm sure it's got to do with rockets or it wouldn't be in that manual.

我相信这还是可以用来做火箭的，要不然钾盐不会出现在手册中。

And so I -- I did some experiments.

所以我就做了些实验。

You know, I started off with little tiny amounts

你知道，我一开始用很少一点点，

of potassium nitrate and sugar,

的硝酸钾和食糖，

which was readily available,

食糖很好搞到，

and I mixed it in different proportions,

然后我把它们不同比例混起来

and I tried to light it on fire.

试图点着。

Just to see what would happen, if you mixed it together.

只是为了看看会发生什么，如果你把它们混起来。

这东西 — 这混合物点着了。

And it -- they burned.

It burned kind of slow, but it made a nice smell,

它烧得很慢，但是闻起来很好闻，

compared to other rocket fuels I had tried,

不像其他那些我试过的火箭燃料，

that all had sulfur in them.

有硫在里面的那些。

And, it smelt like burnt candy.

它闻起来像是烧焦了的糖。

And then I tried the melting business, and I melted it.

接着我试着熔化它，我做到了。

And then it melted into a little sort of syrupy liquid, brown.

它熔化成一小片糖浆一样的液体，

And then it cooled down to a brick-hard substance,

接着冷却变成了一块像砖一样的东西。

that when you lit that,

然后你把它点着，

it went off like a bat.

它一下子就飞起来了。

I mean, the little bowl of that stuff that had cooled down --

我是说，这一小碗东西，冷却之后 —

you'd light it, and it would just start dancing around the yard.

你一点着它，它就在后院里跳来跳去。

And I said, there

我就说，

is a way to get a frog up to where he wants to go.

我们就用它把青蛙送上天去!

(Laughter)

（笑声）

So I started developing --

就这样我就开始发展这个技术 —

you know, George's dad had a lot of help. I just had my brother.

你知道，George的父亲得到了很多的帮助。可是我只有我弟弟帮忙。

But I -- it took me about -- it took me about,

就这样我 — 我花了 — 我花了

I'd say, six months

我得说，六个月的时间

to finally figure out all the little things.

才终于弄明白了所有的细节。

There's a lot of little things involved

做个火箭，真的能飞的火箭，

in making a rocket that it will actually work,

这件事包含很多细节，

even after you have the fuel.

即使是你有燃料在手。

But you do it, by -- what I just--

但是你做这件事 — 我就是 —

you know, you do experiments,

你知道，靠做试验。

and you write down things sometimes,

有时你需要写下过程，

you make observations, you know.

你观察，你明白更多，

And then you slowly build up a theory

然后你慢慢地明白了

of how this stuff works.

这个事情是怎么工作的。

And it was -- I was following all the rules.

这就是 — 我就是这么一步步来的。

I didn't know what the rules were,

我那时并不知道规则是什么，

I'm a natural born scientist, I guess,

我只是个天生的科学家，我想。

or some kind of a throwback to the 17th century, whatever.

或者是返祖回十七世纪去了。

But at any rate, we finally did

总而言之，我们最终

have a device that would reproduceably

有了一个能稳定地飞行的火箭，

put a frog out of sight

一个能把青蛙带上天

and get him back alive.

也能把它活着带回来的火箭。

And we had not --

而且我们一点也不 —

I mean, we weren't frightened by it.

我是说，我们并不感到害怕。

We should have been, because it made a lot of smoke

我们应该感到害怕，这是一个每次运行都放出很多烟雾的，

and it made a lot of noise,

制造出很多噪音的，

and it was powerful, you know.

非常强大的火箭，你要知道。

And once in a while, they would blow up.

而且时不时它们会爆炸。

But I wasn't worried, by the way,

但是我没有担心，话说回来，

about, you know,

担心，你知道，

the explosion causing the destruction of the planet.

我引起的爆炸会毁灭星球什么的。

I hadn't heard about the 10 ways

那时候我还不知道人类的十大威胁

that we should be afraid of the --

那些我们“应该”担心的 —

By the way,

不管怎么样，

I could have thought,

我当时也有可能会想，

I'd better not do this because

我最好还是不做这个实验，

they say not to, you know.

因为手册上说别做。你知道。

And I'd better get permission from the government.

而且要做也得向政府申请什么的。

If I'd have waited around for that,

如果我真的等着批准，

I would have never -- the frog would have died, you know.

我用员也不可能做成 — 那个青蛙早就老死了，你知道。

At any rate, I bring it up because it's a good story,

总之，我谈起这个是因为这是个（能用来说明该怎么做科研的）好故事，

and he said, tell personal things, you know, and that's a personal --

而且主持人说，我应该用亲身体验来说事，这个算是亲身体验 —

I was going to tell you about the first night that I met my wife,

我当然也可以和你们讲我和我太太第一次认识的时候的激情之夜，

but that would be too personal, wouldn't it.

但是那未免太亲身体验了一点儿，对吧。

So, so I've got something else that's not personal.

现在，我还有一些不是那么亲身经历型的例子。

But that... process is what I think of as science,

但是... 我看科学研究的过程，

see, where you start with some idea,

应该是当你有一个主意，

and then instead of, like, looking up,

不要只是到处查问，

every authority that you've ever heard of

问那些你认为的权威人士（怎么说）—

I -- sometimes you do that,

我 — 当然有时候你也要这么做，

if you're going to write a paper later,

那是为了后来你发表你的结果的时候，

you want to figure out who else has worked on it.

你需要知道还有谁在研究这个。

But in the actual process, you get an idea --

但是科学研究的过程是，你有个主意（就要亲身实验）—

like, when I got the idea one night

就好比有天晚上我有个主意，

that I could amplify DNA with two oligonucleotides,

想要用两个寡核苷酸复制 DNA 片段，

and I could make lots of copies of some little piece of DNA,

然后就可以复制很多小片的 DNA，

you know, the thinking for that

你知道，这样一个想法

was about 20 minutes while I was driving my car,

是我在开车回家路上那二十分钟想到的，

and then instead of going -- I went back and I did talk to people about it,

我没有回家 — 我回到实验室（做实验去了）。我当然也和别人谈了我的想法，

but if I'd listened to what I heard from all my friends who were molecular biologists --

但是如果我真的听从了我那些朋友们，他们可都是分子生物学家 —

I would have abandoned it.

我早就放弃了。

You know, if I had gone back looking for an authority figure

要知道，如果我回去找权威人士要意见

who could tell me if it would work or not,

问这个行不行得通，

he would have said, no, it probably won't.

权威会说不行，这个多半行不通，

Because the results of it were so spectacular

因为如果这个实验成了，结果会非常好，

that if it worked it was going to change everybody's goddamn way of doing molecular biology.

结果将改变每个人作分子生物学研究的方式。

Nobody wants a chemist to come in

没有一个分子生物学家，会希望一个化学家跑来

and poke around in their stuff like that and change things.

这里试试那里试试地改变它们的工作方式。

But if you go to authority, and you always don't --

如果你去问权威的意见，你通常不会 —

you don't always get the right answer, see.

你不会得到正确的答案。对吧。

But I knew, you'd go into the lab

要我说，你应该去实验室，

and you'd try to make it work yourself. And then you're the authority,

自己做实验，做成了你就是权威了。

and you can say, I know it works,

你就可以拍拍胸脯说，我保证这个能成。

because right there in that tube

因为就在那里，那个试管里

is where it happened,

我复制了 DNA。

and here, on this gel, there's a little band there

在这里，这块胶上，这里有个小小的条带，

that I know that's DNA, and that's the DNA I wanted to amplify,

我知道这个是 DNA，我想要复制的那个 DNA，

so there! So it does work.

所以成了！我做成了。

You know, that's how you do science.

你知道，这是你应该怎么样作科研。

And then you say, well, what can make it work better?

然后你说，唔，现在我怎么作能让复制 DNA 更容易呢？

And then you figure out better and better ways to do it.

接着你就试出更好的办法来。

But you always work from, from like, facts

但是要记住你永远要从事实出发，

that you have made available to you

你做实验得到的那些事实

by doing experiments: things that you could do on a stage.

那些你能够上台展示给人们的事实。

And no tricky shit behind the thing. I mean, it's all --

不能背后搞鬼。这是最基本的 —

you've got to be very honest

你得诚实

with what you're doing if it really is going to work.

关于你做的实验，关于你的实验是不是成功的。

I mean, you can't make up results,

我强调，你不能捏造数据，

and then do another experiment based on that one.

然后拿这个假数据当基础做别的实验，

So you have to be honest.

所以你必须得诚实。

And I'm basically honest.

我挺诚实的。

I have a fairly bad memory, and dishonesty would always get me in trouble,

我记性不好，要是不说实话，前后对不上我就倒霉了。

if I, like -- so I've just sort of been naturally honest

如果我（撒谎的话可不妙）— 所以自然而然地我又诚实

又好奇，

and naturally inquisitive,

and that sort of leads to that kind of science.

这两种气质引导我进入了实验科学。

Now, let's see...

好的，让我看看... ...

I've got another five minutes, right?

我剩下五分钟，对吧？

OK. All scientists aren't like that.

好的（言归正传），不是所有的科学家都诚实的。

You know -- and there is a lot --

你知道 — 有不少 —

(Laughter)

（笑声）

There is a lot -- a lot has been going on since

真的有很多 — 在牛顿时代和十七世纪时代实验科学萌芽之后，

Isaac Newton and all that stuff happened.

发生了很多事情。

One of the things that happened right around World War II

其中一件事就是差不多第二次世界大战时

in that same time period before,

其实那之前也有，

and as sure as hell afterwards,

当然之后更多，

government got -- realized that scientists aren't strange dudes

政府 — 认识到科学家不仅仅是那些

that, you know, hide in ivory towers

躲在象牙塔里

and do ridiculous things with test tube.

摆弄试管的怪人，

Scientists, you know, made World War II

科学家，要知道，让第二次世界大战

as we know it quite possible.

大家都知道，有机会发生。

They made faster things.

科学家发明了更快的飞机，

They made bigger guns to shoot them down with.

科学家也发明了更大的枪炮把这些飞机射下来，

You know, they made drugs to give the pilots

接着，科学家还发明了药，给飞行员吃，

if they were broken up in the process.

这样他们就不会精神上有问题。

They made all kinds of -- and then finally one giant bomb

科学家发明了各种各样的东西 — 最后还发明了一个大核弹

to end the whole thing, right?

结束了第二次世界大战。对不对？

And everybody stepped back a little and said, you know,

之后人人仔细一看，都意识到，

we ought to invest in this shit,

我们得在科研上投资，

because whoever has got the most of these people

因为谁拥有了这些科学家，

working in the places is going to have a dominant position,

这些科技成果，谁就有主动权，

at least in the military, and probably in all kind of economic ways.

至少在军事方面，而且很可能也在经济发展方面。

And they got involved in it, and the scientific

所以政府干预了，科学界

and industrial establishment was born,

和工业界开始结合。

and out of that came a lot of scientists

这时就出现了一帮所谓科学家

who were in there for the money, you know,

为了名利而从事科研工作。你知道。

because it was suddenly available.

因为突然之间你能有名利了。

And they weren't the curious little boys

他们可不是（像我一样的）好奇的小男孩，

that liked to put frogs up in the air.

就是想把青蛙送上天。

They were the same people that later went in to medical school, you know,

他们就像是那种后来争着当医生

because there was money in it, you know. I mean, later, then they all got into business --

为了钱当医生的人，你知道，我是说，后来，这样的人都去了商业界 —

I mean, there are waves of -- going into your high school,

我是说，是有这种潮流的，当你上高中时，

person saying, you want to be rich, you know, be a scientist. You know, not anymore.

人们说，你得将来当科学家，现在不是了，

You want to be rich, you be a businessman.

想挣钱你得从商。

But a lot of people got in it for the money and the power and the travel.

但是正因为科学家为了钱作科研，为了出名，为了能到处跑，

That's back when travel was easy.

那时候到处跑还挺容易的。

And those people don't think --

这些人并不认为 —

they don't --

他们不 —

they don't always tell you the truth, you know.

他们不是总说实话的。你知道。

There is nothing in their contract, in fact,

说实话可不在合同里，事实上，

that makes it to their advantage always,

说实话并不是

to tell you the truth.

总对他们有利的。

And the people I'm talking about are people that like --

我说的这些人就像是 —

they say that they're a member of the committee

政府间的全球气候改变委员会

called, say, the Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change.

里面那些委员们，

And they -- and they have these big meetings where they try to figure out

他们 — 他们动不动就开会说

how we're going to -- how we're going to continually prove

他们正在试图研究我们该怎么 —

该怎么证明地球变暖，

that the planet is getting warmer,

when that's actually contrary to most people's sensations.

虽然大家并没有感觉到。

I mean, if you actually measure

我是说，如果你真的测量，

the temperature over a period --

地表温度相当长一段时期 —

I mean, the temperature has been measured now

我是说，地表温度其实已经被小心观察了

pretty carefully for about 50, 60 years --

五十到六十年了 —

longer than that it's been measured,

其实比那个还长，

but in really nice, precise ways,

只是这五六十年来测量工作很细致。

and records have been kept for 50 or 60 years,

全是记录在案的。

and in fact, the temperature hadn't really gone up.

事实上，地表温度没真的上升。

It's like, the average temperature

就好比说，平均地表温度

has gone up a tiny little bit,

上升了一点点，

because the nighttime temperatures

因为夜晚的温度，

at the weather stations have come up just a little bit.

在气象局测量的上升了一点点。

But there's a good explanation for that.

但是其实这里有个原因。

And it's that the weather stations are all built outside of town,

这是因为气象局都建在城市之外，

where the airport was, and now

飞机场边之类的地方，而现在

the town's moved out there, there's concrete all around

诚实变大了，气象局四周都变成了混凝土结构，（所以夜晚温度上升了，）

and they call it the skyline effect.

这叫做天际线影响。

And most responsible people

那些负责任的测量温度的人

that measure temperatures realize

认识到

you have to shield your measuring device from that.

你得把这个因素考虑进去，

And even then, you know,

但是即使这样，你知道，

because the buildings get warm in the daytime,

由于建筑物白天变热，

and they keep it a little warmer at night.

晚上它们还是会保持一些热量，

So the temperature has been, sort of, inching up.

所以平均温度上升了一些。

It should have been. But not a lot. Not like, you know --

这是应当的。 但是不应该上升很多，你知道 —

the first guy -- the first guy that got the idea

第一个人 — 第一个提出

that we're going to fry ourselves here,

我们将把自己烤熟的人，

actually, he didn't think of it that way.

其实，他并不认为温度会上升很多。

His name was Sven Arrhenius. He was Swedish, and he said,

他的名字是 Sven Arrhenius，瑞典人。他说，

if you double the CO2 level in the atmosphere,

如果大气含有两倍的二氧化碳，

which he thought might -- this is in 1900 --

他认为可能会 — 那时是 1900 年 —

the temperature ought to go up about 5.5 degrees, he calculated.

温度会上升 5.5 度，他计算过，

He was thinking of the earth as, kind of like,

他认为地球会像

you know, like a completely insulated thing

你知道，一个完全与外界隔离的系统，

with no stuff in it, really,

也不包含任何东西，真的，

just energy coming down, energy leaving.

只是能量进来，能量出去。

And so he came up with this theory,

他建立了这个理论，

and he said, this will be cool,

他认为挺好的

because it'll be a longer growing season in Sweden,

因为这样瑞典就能有长些的农作物生长期。

you know, and the surfers liked it,

你知道。而且我担保冲浪爱好者也会高兴，

the surfers thought, that's a cool idea,

冲浪的人会说，这下好，

because it's pretty cold in the ocean sometimes, and --

因为有时候海里还是挺冷的，而且 —

but a lot of other people later on

但是很多人后来

started thinking it would be bad, you know.

开始觉得这不好，你知道。

But nobody actually demonstrated it, right?

但是没人真的证明地球会变暖，对不对？

I mean, the temperature as measured --

我是说，地表温度也观察了 —

and you can find this on our wonderful Internet,

你可以在网上就看到。

you just go and look for all NASAs records,

你可以去 NASA 网站上看他们的资料，

and all the Weather Bureau's records,

还有那些气象局的数据，

and you'll look at it yourself, and you'll see, the temperature has just --

你自己看看，你会发现，地表温度其实 —

the nighttime temperature measured on the surface of the planet

地球表面夜晚的平均温度

has gone up a tiny little bit.

上升了一点点，

So if you just average that and the daytime temperature, it looks like it went up

所以如果你把白天和晚上的地表温度区平均，看起来整个地球变暖了一点

about .7 degrees in this century.

大概 0.7 度吧，整个二十世纪。

But in fact, it was just coming up --

但事实上，上升的只是 —

it was the nighttime; the daytime temperatures didn't go up.

只是夜晚的温度，白天的温度没有上升。

所以 — 根据 Arrhenius 这个理论 —

So -- and Arrhenius' theory --

and all the global warmers think --

所有支持地球变暖的人会认为 —

they would say, yeah, it should go up in the daytime, too,

他们会说，对啦，白天的温度也应该上升呀，

if it's the greenhouse effect.

如果温室效应是真的话。

Now, people like things that have, like, names like that,

所以说，人们喜欢这种牛皮哄哄的东西，新名词儿，

that they can envision it, right? I mean --

你可以凭空想象，对不对？我是说 —

but people don't like things like this, so -- most -- I mean,

人们不喜欢实事求是，他们 — 大多数人 — 我是说

你不容易对具体的数据感到兴奋，

you don't get all excited about things

like the actual evidence, you know,

那些实实在在的证据，你知道，

which would be evidence for strengthening

那些可以证明

of the tropical circulation in the 1990s.

二十世纪九十年代的热带环流现象的证据。

It's a paper that came out in February,

今年二月有篇论文发表了，

and most of you probably hadn't heard about it.

你们大多数人可能还没读过，叫做

"Evidence for Large Decadal Variability

“关于十年来热带辐射能源预测和实际量间

in the Tropical Mean Radiative Energy Budget."

的巨大差异的证据”。

Excuse me. Those papers were published by NASA,

（咳嗽声）不好意思。这些文章有的是 NASA 发表的，

and some scientists at Columbia, and Viliki

有的是哥伦比亚大学或者 Viliki 的科学家

and a whole bunch of people, Princeton.

还有普林斯顿的。

And those two papers came out in Science Magazine,

这两篇论文发表在“科学”杂志上

February the first,

二月的第一期，

and these -- the conclusion in both of these papers,

还有这些 — 这两篇论文的结论

and in also the Science editor's, like,

还有“科学”杂志的编辑们对于这两篇论文的描述

descriptions of these papers, for, you know,

是，你知道，

for the quickie,

快速说一下，

is that our theories about global warming

是说我们的全球变暖的假测

are completely wrong. I mean,

是错的。我是说，

what these guys were doing,

这些人做的，

and this is what -- the NASA people have been saying this for a long time.

也就是 — 这些 NASA 的人长期以来所说的。

They say, if you measure the temperature of the atmosphere, it isn't going up --

他们说，如果你测量一下大气层的温度，没有上升 —

it's not going up at all. We've doing it very carefully now for 20 years,

一点也没上升。我们已经小心观察了二十年了，

from satellites, and it isn't going up.

用卫星看，气温没有上升。

And in this paper, they show something much more striking,

这篇文章里，他们展示了一些数据，更为震惊。

and that was that they did what they call a radiation --

他们做了个试验叫做辐射实验 —

and I'm not going to go into the details of it, actually it's quite complicated,

我不想多谈细节，其实挺复杂的，

but it isn't as complicated as they might make you think it is

即使不复杂他们也会试着把它写的

by the words they use in those papers. If you really get down to it, they say,

复杂，（才好发表）。如果你真读懂了，他们所说的不外是，

the sun puts out a certain amount of energy --

太阳放射出一定量的能量 —

we know how much that is --

我们可以测出这个能量是多少 —

it falls on the earth, the earth gives back a certain amount.

一些能量传到地球，地球也会反过来放出一些能量。

当地球变暖，地球会产生 —

When it gets warm it generates --

it makes redder energy -- I mean, like infra-red,

地球会放出更“红”的能量波 — 我是说，就像红外线，

like something that's warm gives off infra-red.

有温度的东西能放射红外线。

The whole business of the global warming --

这整个地球变暖的故事 —

trash, really,

其实不对，真的，

is that -- if the -- if there's too much CO2 in the atmosphere,

应该会 — 如果，如果大气层真的有过多的二氧化碳，

the heat that's trying to escape

热量排不出去，

won't be able to get out. But the heat coming from the sun,

但是太阳会源源不断地送热量过来，

which is mostly down in the -- it's like 350 nanometers,

波长大概是 350 纳米，

which is where it's centered -- that goes right through CO2.

这是最中心的波长 — 这个波长的能量波会穿过（大气中的）二氧化碳，

So you still get heated, but you don't dissipate any.

所以地球还是会（被太阳）加热，但是热量散不出去。（这样地球就应该发出更“红”的能量波。）

Well, these guys measured all of those things.

就这样，这些科学家把这些因素都测量了一遍，

I mean, you can talk about that stuff,

我是说，你可以空谈，

and you can write these large reports, and you can get government money to do it,

你可以写那些耸人听闻的报告，你也可以向政府要钱（来解决这些不存在的问题），

但是这些科学家 — 他们实实在在地作了测量，

but these -- they actually measured it,

and it turns out that in the last 10 years --

结果发现过去十年 —

that's why they say "decadal" there --

那就是他们问什么命名这篇文章“十年来” —

that the energy -- that the level

那些能源 —

of what they call "imbalance"

他们所说的“不平衡”的水平

has been way the hell over what was expected.

根本没有达到（用全球变暖的假说）预测出的程度。

Like, the amount of imbalance --

就是说，这个不平衡的程度

meaning, heat's coming in and it's not going out

也就是地球接受的能源和地球没能放射出去的能源之间的差异，

that you would get from having double the CO2,

如果按照大气层中的二氧化碳加倍来算，

which we're not anywhere near that, by the way.

其实二氧化碳远没有加倍，

But if we did, in 2025 or something,

但如果真的是加倍了，在 2025 年或者别的什么时候，

have double the CO2 as we had in 1900,

和 1990 年比大气层中的二氧化碳加倍了，

they say it would be increase the energy budget

科学家们说这个预测的能量不平衡，

by about -- in other words,

会增加 — 简单点说，

one watt per square centimeter more

每个平方厘米一瓦特，

would be coming in than going out.

在进来和出去的能量间比较。

So the planet should get warmer.

这样我们的星球就会变暖一点。

Well, they found out in this study -- these two studies

但是，他们在实验后发现 — 两个实验

by two different teams --

不同的团队做 —

that five and a half watts

1998 年和 1999 年，

per square meter

每个平方米的能量差异是

had been coming in from 1998, 1999,

5.5 瓦特，

and the place didn't get warmer.

但是我们的星球并没有变暖。

So the theory's kaput -- it's nothing.

所以这个全球变暖的理论 — 不成立。

These papers should have been called,

这些论文应该叫做

"The End to the Global Warming Fiasco," you know.

“地球变暖理论的尴尬终结”，你知道。

They're concerned,

他们非常小心，

and you can tell they have very guarded conclusions in these papers,

你可以看出他们在论文中作结论的时候是很谨慎的，

because they're talking about big laboratories

因为他们自己，是这些国家级的大实验室，

that are funded by lots of money

从那些怕地球变暖的人那里

and by scared people.

得到大量研究经费的实验室。

You know, if they said, you know what?

你知道，如果这些科学家在论文里说，你知道么？

There isn't a problem with global warming any longer,

我们不再有地球变暖的问题，

so we can -- you know, they're funding.

所以我们可以（停止这些研究）— 你知道，那些给经费的人可正在给这些实验室钱呢。

And if you start a grant request with something like that,

如果你在向这些人申请资助，

and say, global warming obviously hadn't happened...

说地球变暖从来也没有发生过，（那问题就大了）...

if they -- if they -- if they actually -- if they actually said that,

如果这些科学家 — 他们 — 他们真的 — 如果他们真的这么说了，

I'm getting out.

我看我得先溜了。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

I'll stand up too, and --

我不妨站起来说话（这样逃得快些），就是说 —

(Laughter)

（笑声）

(Applause)

（掌声）

They have to say that.

他们不得不有所保留。

They had to be very cautious.

他们必须小心说话。

But what I'm saying is, you can be delighted,

我的意思是，你可以为了（地球变暖不再是问题）而高兴，

because the editor of Science, who is no dummy,

因为“科学”杂志的编辑，他们可不傻，

and both of these fairly professional --

还有这两个很专业的团队 —

really professional teams, have really come to the same conclusion

非常专业的团队，都真的得出了相同的结论，

and in the bottom lines in their papers

在他们文章的最后，

they have to say, what this means is, that what we've been thinking,

他们必须得说实话，也就是我们一直以来认为的，

was the global circulation model that we predict

我们用来作出地球变暖的假设的

that the earth is going to get overheated

所谓全球流通的气候模型

that it's all wrong. It's wrong by a large factor.

是不对的。差得远了。

It's not by a small one. They just --

不是差了一点点。他们只是 —

they just misinterpreted the fact that the earth --

他们只是错误地估计了地球，

there's obviously some mechanisms going on

这里一定有什么秘密机制存在，

that nobody knew about,

还没人知道，

because the heat's coming in and it isn't getting warmer.

因为热量进来，但是地球没有变暖，

So the planet is a pretty amazing thing, you know,

所以说（地球一定有办法不变暖，）我们的星球不得了，你知道，

it's big and horrible -- and big and wonderful,

它这么大，这么令人震惊 — 这么大，也这么奇妙。

and it does all kinds of things we don't know anything about.

我们不知道的关于地球的事情有很多。

So I mean, the reason I put those things all together,

总的来说我的意思是，我今天把这几点放在一起说的原因

OK, here's the way you're supposed to do science --

就是，这是你应该怎么搞科研 —

some science is done for other reasons, and just curiosity.

有的科学做起来是有原因，比如仅仅是好奇心。

And there's a lot of things like global warming,

但是有些科学研究比如全球变暖理论，

and ozone hole and you know,

臭氧层空洞之类的，你知道，

a whole bunch of scientific public issues,

一大堆这样的公众的科学理论，

that if you're interested in them,

如果你对它们感兴趣，

then you have to get down the details, and read the papers called,

你一定要调查研究所有的细节，读读这篇文章

"Large Decadal Variability in the..."

“巨大差异...”

You have to figure out what all those words mean.

你必须弄明白这些研究是怎么回事情。

And if you just listen to the guys

否则你就会轻信别人的话，

who are hyping those issues, and making a lot of money out of it,

那些提出这些问题的人，那些从中获利的人，

you'll be misinformed, and you'll be worrying about the wrong things.

你将会被骗，还会一直担心那些不存在的危机。

Remember the 10 things that are going to get you. The -- one of them --

别忘了那十种世界终结的方式。那个 — 其中有一个 —

（笑声）

(Laughter)

And the asteroids is the one I really agree with there.

小行星，那项我特别同意。

I mean, you've got to watch out for asteroids. OK, thank you for having me here.

我是说，你得提防那些小行星。好啦，谢谢你们请我来。

（掌声）

(Applause)