Civilization on the Moon -- and what it means for life on Earth | Jessy Kate Schingler

翻译人员: Lily Xu 校对人员: psjmz mz

Right now, there's a lot happening with the Moon.

现在，有很多关于 月球的事正在发生。

China has announced plans for an inhabited South Pole station

中国已宣布，计划在 2030 年

建立一个有人居住的月球南极站点，

by the 2030s,

and the United States has an official road map

而美国官方已制定出方案，

seeking an increasing number of people living and working in space.

招募更多的人在太空里生活与工作。

This will start with NASA's Artemis program,

这一切将由美国太空总署的 阿提米丝（Artemis）计划开始，

an international program to send the first woman and the next man

这项国际计划准备在未来的十年内， 将第一位女性和男性

to the Moon this decade.

送上月球。

Billionaires and the private sector are getting involved

亿万富翁和民营企业

也都在以前所未有的方式参与其中。

in unprecedented ways.

There are over a hundred launch companies around the world

全球有上百家提供 航天发射服务的公司，

and roughly a dozen private lunar transportation companies

以及大约十多个私营的 月球运输公司，

readying robotic missions to the lunar surface.

正准备在月球表面 进行机器人探测任务。

We have reusable rockets for the first time in human history.

我们在历史上首次建造出 可反复使用的火箭。

This will enable the development of infrastructure

这让基础建设得以发展

and utilization of resources.

和资源得以被善加利用。

While estimates vary, scientists think

尽管不同估计之间存在出入，

there could be up to a billion metric tons of water ice on the Moon.

但科学家普遍认为月球上 可能有多达十亿公吨的冰。

That's greater than the size of Lake Erie,

比北美洲伊利湖的水量还多，

and enough water to support perhaps hundreds of thousands of people

足以供应数十万人

living and working on the Moon.

在月球上工作并生活。

So although official plans are always evolving,

所以，尽管官方计划 总在不断演变，

there's real reason to think that we could see people

但我们仍有充分的理由相信，

starting to live and work on the Moon

人类会在这十年内

in the next decade.

开始在月球上工作并生活。

However, the Moon is roughly the size of the continent of Africa,

然而，月球的面积大概 与非洲差不多大，

and we're starting to see that the key resources

我们也开始发现核心资源

may be concentrated in small areas

可能集中在

邻近南北极的狭小区域里。

near the poles.

This raises important questions about coordinating access to scarce resources.

这就引起了一些像是 协调稀缺资源分配的重要问题，

And there are also legitimate questions about going to the Moon:

以及其他关于进驻月球的问题：

colonialism, cultural heritage

殖民主义、文化遗产

and reproducing the systemic inequalities of today's capitalism.

以及重蹈资本主义 系统性不平等的覆辄。

And more to the point:

更重要的是：

Don't we have enough big challenges here on Earth?

我们在地球上遇到的挑战 还不够多吗？

Internet governance, pandemics, terrorism and, perhaps most importantly,

网络治理、全球疫情、恐怖主义， 还有，或许最重要的，

climate crisis and biodiversity loss.

气候危机和生物多样性的流失。

In some senses,

从某些意义上说，

the idea of the Moon as just a destination

将月球仅视为目的地的想法

embodies these problematic qualities.

只会让这些问题再度出现。

It conjures a frontier attitude

它让人想到拓荒者的

of conquest,

征服心态，

big rockets and expensive projects,

巨大的火箭和昂贵的计划，

competition and winning.

竞争与获胜。

But what's most interesting about the Moon

但月球最有趣之处

isn't the billionaires with their rockets

并非是拥有火箭的亿万富翁

or the same old power struggle between states.

或是国家之间权力斗争的老调重弹。

In fact, it's not the hardware at all.

事实上，这和硬件无关。

It's the software.

而是软件——

It's the norms, customs and laws.

是规范、惯例和法律。

It's our social technologies.

这是我们的社会技术。

And it's the opportunity to update our democratic institutions

而这也是一个更新我们民主体制

and the rule of law

与法治的机会，

to respond to a new era of planetary-scale challenges.

用来回应这个正面临 行星级挑战的新时代。

I'm going to tell you about how the Moon can be a canvas

我将会告诉你，月球如何 能成为一张新的蓝图，

for solving some of our biggest challenges here on Earth.

帮助我们解决在地球上 遇到的大难题。

I've been kind of obsessed with this topic since I was a teenager.

我从青少年时期开始 一直痴迷于这个话题。

I've spent the last two decades working on international space policy,

过去二十年来，我一直 致力于研究国际太空政策，

but also on small community projects with bottom-up governance design.

以及小型社群计划， 设计由下而上的治理机制。

When I was 17,

我十七岁时，

I went to a UN conference on the peaceful uses of outer space

在维也纳参加了一场关于 和平利用外太空的

in Vienna.

联合国会议。

Over two weeks, 160 young people from over 60 countries

在两个多星期内，来自超过 60 个国家的 160 位年轻人

were crammed into a big hotel next to the UN building.

涌入了位于联合国大楼 旁边的一间酒店。

We were invited to make recommendations

我们被邀请

to Member States

向会员国提议

about the role of space in humanity's future.

未来人类在外太空所扮演的角色。

After the conference,

在那场会议之后，

some of us were so inspired

我们受到了很大的启发，

that we actually decided to keep living together.

甚至决定继续生活在一起。

Now, living with 20 people might sound kind of crazy,

和二十个人住在一起 听起来有些疯狂，

but over the years, it enabled us to create a high-trust group

但多年以来，我们得以形成 一个高度信任的团体

that allowed us to experiment with these social technologies.

对这些社会技术进行实验。

We designed governance systems ranging from assigning a CEO

我们设计了各种治理机制， 从 CEO 的选派，

to using a jury process.

到陪审程序的进行。

And as we grew into our careers,

而随着我们不断发展自己的事业，

and we moved from DC think tanks to working for NASA

从华盛顿特区的智囊团 到为美国太空总署工作，

to starting our own companies,

并成立我们自己的公司，

these experiments enabled us to see

这些实验让我们看到

how even small groups could be a petri dish

即使是小型的团体 也能够成为培养皿，

for important societal questions such as representation,

对重要的社会问题 进行试验，例如代表性，

sustainability or opportunity.

可持续或机会的问题。

People often talk about the Moon as a petri dish

人们谈论月球时， 经常把它当作一个培养皿

or even a blank slate.

或甚至是一块空白的黑板。

But because of the legal agreements that govern the Moon,

但因为有针对治理月球 所成立的法律协议，

it actually has something very important in common

它其实和我们在地球上 遇到的全球性难题

with our global challenges here on Earth.

有很重要的共通点。

They both involve issues that require us to think beyond territory and borders,

两者牵涉到的问题都需要我们跳脱 领土与国境的框架来思考，

meaning the Moon is actually more of a template

这意味着月球 其实比较像是块模板，

than a blank slate.

而非空白的的黑板。

Signed in 1967, the Outer Space Treaty is the defining treaty

在 1967 年签署的《外太空条约》， 是一项用以规范外太空活动的

governing activities in outer space,

决定性条约，

including the Moon.

其中就包含月球。

And it has two key ingredients

并且它有两个关键点

that radically alter the basis on which laws can be constructed.

从根本上改变了制定法律的基础。

The first is a requirement for free access to all areas of a celestial body.

第一点要求在天体上 所有区域内自由进出。

And the second is that the Moon and other celestial bodies

第二点则是， 月球与其它天体

are not subject to national appropriation.

不得为任何国家所占有。

Now, this is crazy,

这简直让人难以想象，

because the entire earthly international system --

因为地球上所有的国际体系——

the United Nations,

联合国，

the system of treaties and international agreements --

条约和国际协议的体制——

is built on the idea of state sovereignty,

都是建立在国家主权概念，

on the appropriation of land and resources within borders

国境之内资源与土地的据有

and the autonomy to control free access within those borders.

以及限制国境之内 自由进出的自治权之上。

By doing away with both of these,

借由舍弃这两者，

we create the conditions for what are called the "commons."

我们创造了被称作 “全球公域”的概念。

Based on the work of Nobel Prize-winning economist Elinor Ostrom,

诺贝尔奖得主，经济学家 伊莉诺·欧斯壮（Elinor Ostrom）指出，

global commons are those resources that we all share

全球公域是我们共享的资源，

that require us to work together to manage and protect

需要我们一起合作管理与保护，

important aspects of our survival and well-being,

并且对我们的生存与福祉至关重要，

like climate or the oceans.

比如气候或海洋。

Commons-based approaches offer a greenfield for institution design

以公域概念为基础的方法 为制度设计开拓了新的领域，

that's only beginning to be explored

而我们才刚开始

at the global and interplanetary level.

在行星的尺度上进行探索。

What do property rights look like?

财产权会是什么概念呢？

And how do we manage resources

我们如何在外部权威

when the traditional tools of external authority and private property

与私有财等传统工具 不适用的情况下

don't apply?

管理资源呢？

Though we don't have all the answers,

虽然我们没有所有的答案，

climate, internet governance, authoritarianism --

气候、网络治理、集权主义──

these are all deeply existential threats

这些都深深地威胁我们的生存，

that we have failed to address with our current ways of thinking.

然而我们目前的思维模式 根本无法应对这些问题。

Successful paths forward will require us to develop new tools.

我们需要开发出新的工具， 以找到成功的出路。

So how do we incorporate commons-based logic

那么，我们该如何将公域的逻辑

into our global and space institutions?

并入全球与太空的体制呢？

Well, here's one attempt that came from an unlikely source.

我们已经有人通过 意想不到的方式做出了尝试。

As a young activist in World War II,

作为一位二战时期的 年轻激进行动主义者，

Arvid Pardo was arrested for anti-fascist organizing

阿维德·帕多（Arvid Pardo）因为 组织反法西斯活动被逮捕，

and held under death sentence by the Gestapo.

被盖世太保判处死刑。

After the war,

战争结束后，

he worked his way into the diplomatic corps,

他努力进入外交使团，

eventually becoming the first permanent representative of Malta

最终成为联合国的第一位

to the United Nations.

马尔他常驻代表。

Pardo saw that international law did not have the tools

帕多看到国际法没有能够

to address management of shared global resources,

处理全球共享资源管理的工具，

such as the high seas.

例如公海。

He also saw an opportunity to advocate for equitable sharing between nations.

他也认为这是提倡各国之间 和平共享的好机会。

In 1967, Pardo gave a famous speech to the United Nations,

在 1967 年，帕多在联合国 发表了著名的演讲，

introducing the idea

并提出了这个想法：

that the oceans and their resources were the "common heritage of mankind."

海洋资源是“人类共同继承的遗产”。

The phrase was eventually adopted as part of the Law of the Sea Treaty,

这句话最后成为了 《海洋法公约》的一部分，

probably the most sophisticated commons-management regime

而该公约或许是今天地球现存

on the planet today.

最复杂的共有财管理制度。

It was seen as a watershed moment,

它被视为一个分水岭，

a constitution for the seas.

一部为海洋所设立的宪法。

But the language proved so controversial

但是该条约的语言 存在诸多争议，

that it took over 12 years to gain enough signatures

导致花了十二年 才有足够的国家签署，

for the treaty to enter into force,

得以产生法律效力，

and some states still refuse to sign it.

虽然至今有些国家仍拒绝签署。

The objection was not so much about sharing per se,

反对的声音所针对的 并不是“分享”本身，

but the obligation to share.

而是反对分享的义务。

States felt that the principle of equality undermined their autonomy

这些国家认为， 平等原则会损害其自治权

and state sovereignty,

与国家主权，

the same autonomy and state sovereignty that underpins international law.

而国际法正是由自治权 与国家主权所支撑的。

So in many ways,

从很多方面来说，

the story of the common heritage principle

这则共同遗产原则的故事

is a tragedy.

都是以悲剧收场。

But it's powerful because it makes plain

但是其影响力非常深远， 因为它清楚地说明，

the ways in which the current world order will put up antibodies and defenses

现今的世界秩序会如何反制、防止

and resist attempts at structural reform.

并对抗任何结构改革的企图。

But here's the thing:

但是，重点来了：

the Outer Space Treaty has already made these structural reforms.

《外太空条约》已经实现了 这些结构性的改革。

At the height of the Cold War,

在冷战时期 形势最严峻的那段时间，

terrified that each would get to the Moon first,

美国与苏联

the United States and the USSR

因害怕对方会率先登陆月球

made the Westphalian equivalent of a deal with the devil.

而签署了一项魔鬼交易，相当于 太空领域的西伐利亚合约。

By requiring free access and preventing territorial appropriation,

通过允许自由进出， 但防止领土占据，

we are required to redesign our most basic institutions,

我们需要重新设计 最基本的体制，

and perhaps in doing so,

或许，与此同时，

learn something new we can apply here on Earth.

我们能够学到可以应用 在地球上的新事物。

So although the Moon might seem a little far away sometimes,

虽然有时候月球看起来有点遥远，

how we answer basic questions now

但我们现在如何回答 这些基础的问题，

will set precedent for who has a seat at the table

将会为以下问题树立先例： 谁能握有决定权？

and what consent looks like.

以及，什么算是共识？

And these are questions of social technology,

而这是关于社会技术的问题，

not rockets and hardware.

与火箭和硬件无关。

In fact, these conversations are starting to happen right now.

事实上，关于这些问题的 对话才刚刚开始。

The space community is discussing basic shared agreements,

航天领域正在讨论基础的共同协议，

such as how do we designate lunar areas as heritage sites,

像是：我们如何将月球区域 指定为文化遗产？

and how do we get permission for where to land

当传统的外部权威不适用时，

when traditional external authority

我们如何获得

doesn't apply?

在某处登陆的许可？

How do we enforce requirements for coordination

如果指示其他人去哪里是违规的，

when it's against the rules to tell people where to go?

我们该如何要求他们配合呢？

And how do we manage access to scarce resources

还有，我们如何管理 稀缺资源的取得，

such as water, minerals

例如水、矿物，

or even the peaks of eternal light --

甚至是永昼峰——

craters that sit at just the right latitude

即位于适当的纬度，

to receive near-constant exposure to sunlight --

几乎一直受到 阳光照射的陨石坑——

and therefore, power?

以及阳光的能量呢？

Now, some people think that the lack of rules on the Moon

有些人会因月球上缺乏规则

is terrifying.

而感到恐惧，

And there are legitimately some terrifying elements of it.

其中确实也存在令人恐惧的成分。

If there are no rules on the Moon,

如果月球上没有任何规则，

then won't we end up in a first-come, first-served situation?

那我们不就会陷入 “先到先得”的状况吗？

And we might,

这是有可能的，

if we dismiss this moment.

如果此刻我们 对这些问题置之不理——

But not if we're willing to be bold and to engage the challenge.

除非我们愿意大胆一点， 并愿意面对挑战。

As we learned in our communities of self-governance,

就像我们在自治的社群中 所学习到的那样，

it's easier to create something new than trying to dismantle the old.

创造新事物比废除旧的 要来得更容易。

And where else but the Moon

还有别处比月球

can we prototype new institutions at global scale

有更好的独立环境， 具备我们所需的设计限制，

in a self-contained environment with the exact design constraints needed

供我们建立全球规模的新制度原型，

for our biggest challenges here on Earth?

来解决我们在地球上的大难题吗？

Back in 1999,

回到 1999 年，

the United Nations taught a group of young space geeks

联合国培育了一群 热衷于研究太空的年轻人，

that we could think bigger,

让我们的梦想更远大——

that we could impact nations if we chose to.

如果我们愿意的话， 甚至能对各国产生影响。

Today, the stage is set for the next step:

今天，我们已经为下一步做好准备：

to envision what comes after territory and borders.

展望一个超越领土与国界的未来。

Thank you.

感谢聆听。