Civilization on the Moon -- and what it means for life on Earth | Jessy Kate Schingler

譯者: Yunchi Hsu 審譯者: Amanda Zhu

Right now, there's a lot happening with the Moon.

現在，有很多關於月球的事正在發生。

China has announced plans for an inhabited South Pole station

中國已宣布計畫要在 2030 年代 建立一個有人員居住的月球南極站點，

by the 2030s,

and the United States has an official road map

而美國官方已訂出方案，

seeking an increasing number of people living and working in space.

徵求更多的人在太空裡生活與工作。

This will start with NASA's Artemis program,

這一切將由美國太空總署的 阿提米絲計畫開始，

an international program to send the first woman and the next man

這項國際計畫準備在這十年內， 將第一位女性和另一個男性

to the Moon this decade.

送上月球。

Billionaires and the private sector are getting involved

億萬富翁和民營企業 正以前所未有的方式參與其中。

in unprecedented ways.

There are over a hundred launch companies around the world

全球有上百家提供航太發射服務的公司

and roughly a dozen private lunar transportation companies

以及大約十來個私營的月球運輸公司

readying robotic missions to the lunar surface.

正準備在月球表面 進行機器人探測任務。

We have reusable rockets for the first time in human history.

我們在人類歷史上首次建造出 可重複使用的火箭。

This will enable the development of infrastructure

這讓基礎建設得以發展，

and utilization of resources.

資源得以被善加利用。

While estimates vary, scientists think

儘管各個估計有出入，

科學家都認為月球上 可能有多達十億公噸的水冰。

there could be up to a billion metric tons of water ice on the Moon.

That's greater than the size of Lake Erie,

比北美洲伊利湖的水量還多，

and enough water to support perhaps hundreds of thousands of people

足以供應數十萬人

living and working on the Moon.

在月球上工作並生活。

So although official plans are always evolving,

所以儘管官方的計畫總是不斷演變，

there's real reason to think that we could see people

但仍有充分的理由去思考， 我們可預見人們

starting to live and work on the Moon

會在這十年間， 開始在月球上工作並生活。

in the next decade.

However, the Moon is roughly the size of the continent of Africa,

然而，月球的面積大致 與非洲差不多大，

and we're starting to see that the key resources

我們也開始發現核心資源

may be concentrated in small areas

可能集中在鄰近南北極的狹小區域裡。

near the poles.

This raises important questions about coordinating access to scarce resources.

這就引起了一些重要的問題， 像是協調稀缺資源的分配。

And there are also legitimate questions about going to the Moon:

還有其他關於進駐月球的正當疑問：

colonialism, cultural heritage

殖民主義、文化遺產、

and reproducing the systemic inequalities of today's capitalism.

以及重蹈資本主義 系統性不平等的覆輒。

And more to the point:

而且，還有一點：

Don't we have enough big challenges here on Earth?

我們在地球上遇到的挑戰還不夠多嗎？

Internet governance, pandemics, terrorism and, perhaps most importantly,

網路治理、全球疫情、恐怖主義， 還有，或許是最重要的，

climate crisis and biodiversity loss.

氣候危機和生物多樣性的流失。

In some senses,

某些意義上，

the idea of the Moon as just a destination

將月球僅視為目的地的想法，

embodies these problematic qualities.

只會讓這些問題再度出現。

It conjures a frontier attitude

它讓人聯想到拓荒者的征服心態、

of conquest,

big rockets and expensive projects,

巨大的火箭和花費昂貴的計畫、

competition and winning.

競賽與獲勝。

But what's most interesting about the Moon

但月球最有趣之處

isn't the billionaires with their rockets

並非是擁有火箭的億萬富翁，

or the same old power struggle between states.

或是國家之間權力鬥爭的老調重彈。

In fact, it's not the hardware at all.

事實上，這和硬體無關。

It's the software.

而是軟體——

It's the norms, customs and laws.

是規範、慣例和法律。

It's our social technologies.

是我們的社會技術。

And it's the opportunity to update our democratic institutions

而這也是一個更新我們的民主體制

and the rule of law

與法治的機會，

to respond to a new era of planetary-scale challenges.

以回應這個正面臨 行星級挑戰的新時代。

I'm going to tell you about how the Moon can be a canvas

我將會告訴你，月球如何能 成為一張新藍圖，

for solving some of our biggest challenges here on Earth.

幫助我們解決在地球上 遇到的大難題。

I've been kind of obsessed with this topic since I was a teenager.

我從青少年時期開始， 可說是一直著迷於這個話題，

I've spent the last two decades working on international space policy,

過去二十年來， 我致力於研究國際太空政策，

but also on small community projects with bottom-up governance design.

以及小型的社群計畫， 設計由下而上的治理機制。

When I was 17,

我十七歲時，

I went to a UN conference on the peaceful uses of outer space

我到維也納參加了一場關於 和平利用外太空的聯合國會議。

in Vienna.

Over two weeks, 160 young people from over 60 countries

兩個多星期，來自超過六十個 國家的一百六十位年輕人

were crammed into a big hotel next to the UN building.

湧入了位於聯合國大樓 旁邊的一間大飯店。

We were invited to make recommendations

我們被邀請向會員國提議，

to Member States

about the role of space in humanity's future.

主題是外太空在人類的未來 所扮演的角色。

After the conference,

在那場會議之後，

some of us were so inspired

我們受到了很大的啟發，

that we actually decided to keep living together.

我們甚至決定繼續生活在一起。

Now, living with 20 people might sound kind of crazy,

和二十個人住在一起聽起來有些瘋狂，

but over the years, it enabled us to create a high-trust group

但多年以來，我們得以形成 一個高度信任的團體

that allowed us to experiment with these social technologies.

能讓我們對這些社會技術進行實驗。

We designed governance systems ranging from assigning a CEO

我們設計了各種治理機制， 從執行長的選派

to using a jury process.

到陪審程序的進行。

And as we grew into our careers,

而隨著我們發展自己的事業，

and we moved from DC think tanks to working for NASA

並從華府的智囊團 到為美國太空總署工作，

to starting our own companies,

並成立我們自己的公司，

these experiments enabled us to see

這些實驗讓我們看到，

how even small groups could be a petri dish

即使是小型的團體也能夠成為培養皿，

for important societal questions such as representation,

對重要的社會問題 進行試驗，例如代表性、

sustainability or opportunity.

永續性或機會的問題。

People often talk about the Moon as a petri dish

人們在談論月球時， 經常把它當作一個培養皿，

or even a blank slate.

或甚至是一塊空白的黑板。

But because of the legal agreements that govern the Moon,

但因為有針對治理月球 所成立的法律協議，

it actually has something very important in common

它其實和我們在地球上遇到的 全球性難題有很重要的共通點。

with our global challenges here on Earth.

They both involve issues that require us to think beyond territory and borders,

兩者牽涉到的問題都需要我們跳脫 領土與國境的框架來思考，

meaning the Moon is actually more of a template

意味著月球其實比較像是塊模板，

than a blank slate.

而非空白的的黑板。

Signed in 1967, the Outer Space Treaty is the defining treaty

在 1967 年簽署的《外太空條約》 是一項決定性的條約，

governing activities in outer space,

用以規範外太空進行的活動，

including the Moon.

其範圍包含月球。

And it has two key ingredients

而它有兩個關鍵點

that radically alter the basis on which laws can be constructed.

從根本上改變了制定法律的基礎。

The first is a requirement for free access to all areas of a celestial body.

第一點要求對天體上 所有區域的自由進出。

And the second is that the Moon and other celestial bodies

第二點則是月球與其它天體

are not subject to national appropriation.

不得為任何國家所據有。

Now, this is crazy,

這簡直超乎想像，

because the entire earthly international system --

因為地球上所有的國際體系

the United Nations,

──聯合國、

the system of treaties and international agreements --

條約和國際協議的體制──

is built on the idea of state sovereignty,

都是建立在國家主權的概念、

on the appropriation of land and resources within borders

和國境之內資源與土地的據有

and the autonomy to control free access within those borders.

以及限制國境之內 自由進出的自治權之上。

By doing away with both of these,

藉由捨棄這兩者，

we create the conditions for what are called the "commons."

我們創造了被稱作 「全球公域」的概念。

Based on the work of Nobel Prize-winning economist Elinor Ostrom,

根據曾是諾貝爾獎得主的 經濟學家伊莉諾·歐斯壯，

global commons are those resources that we all share

全球公域是我們共享的資源，

that require us to work together to manage and protect

是需要我們一起合作來管理、保護

important aspects of our survival and well-being,

對我們的生存與福祉至關重要的層面，

like climate or the oceans.

像是氣候或海洋。

Commons-based approaches offer a greenfield for institution design

以公域概念為基礎的方法 為制度設計開展了新的領域，

that's only beginning to be explored

而我們才剛開始以全球 與行星際的尺度進行探索。

at the global and interplanetary level.

What do property rights look like?

財產權會長甚麼樣子呢？

And how do we manage resources

而我們如何在外部權威 與私有財等傳統工具

when the traditional tools of external authority and private property

不適用的情況下管理資源呢？

don't apply?

Though we don't have all the answers,

雖然我們沒有所有的答案，

climate, internet governance, authoritarianism --

氣候、網路治理、集權主義──

these are all deeply existential threats

這些都深深地威脅到我們的生存，

that we have failed to address with our current ways of thinking.

然而以我們目前的思維， 並無法成功應付這些問題。

Successful paths forward will require us to develop new tools.

我們需要發展出新的工具 以找到成功的出路。

So how do we incorporate commons-based logic

所以，我們該如何將公域的邏輯

into our global and space institutions?

併入全球與太空的體制呢？

Well, here's one attempt that came from an unlikely source.

我們已經有人做出嘗試， 起源於意想不到的地方。

As a young activist in World War II,

作為一位二戰時期的 年輕激進行動主義者，

Arvid Pardo was arrested for anti-fascist organizing

阿維德·帕多因為組織 反法西斯活動被逮捕，

and held under death sentence by the Gestapo.

並且被蓋世太保判處死刑。

After the war,

戰爭結束後，

he worked his way into the diplomatic corps,

他努力進入外交使團，

eventually becoming the first permanent representative of Malta

最終成為聯合國的第一位

to the United Nations.

馬爾他常駐代表。

Pardo saw that international law did not have the tools

帕多看到國際法並沒有

to address management of shared global resources,

能處理全球共享資源管理的工具，

such as the high seas.

例如公海。

He also saw an opportunity to advocate for equitable sharing between nations.

他也認為這是提倡各國之間 和平共享的好機會。

In 1967, Pardo gave a famous speech to the United Nations,

在 1967 年，帕多在聯合國 發表著名的演講，

introducing the idea

提出了這個想法：

that the oceans and their resources were the "common heritage of mankind."

海洋與其資源是 「人類共同繼承的遺產」。

The phrase was eventually adopted as part of the Law of the Sea Treaty,

這句話最後被採用為 《海洋法公約》的一部分，

probably the most sophisticated commons-management regime

而該公約或許是今天地球現存 最複雜的共有財管理制度。

on the planet today.

It was seen as a watershed moment,

它被視為一個分水嶺，

a constitution for the seas.

一部為海洋所設立的憲法。

But the language proved so controversial

但是該條約的語言有諸多爭議，

that it took over 12 years to gain enough signatures

導致它花了十二年才獲得足夠國家簽署

for the treaty to enter into force,

以產生法律效力，

and some states still refuse to sign it.

而有些國家仍拒絕簽署。

The objection was not so much about sharing per se,

反對的聲音所針對的 多不是「分享」本身，

but the obligation to share.

而是反對分享的義務。

States felt that the principle of equality undermined their autonomy

這些國家認為平等原則損害其自治權

and state sovereignty,

與國家主權，

the same autonomy and state sovereignty that underpins international law.

而國際法正是由自治權 與國家主權所支撐。

So in many ways,

從很多方面上來說，

the story of the common heritage principle

這則共同遺產原則的故事

is a tragedy.

以悲劇收場。

But it's powerful because it makes plain

但是其影響力深遠，因為它清楚地說明

the ways in which the current world order will put up antibodies and defenses

現今的世界秩序會如何反制、防止

and resist attempts at structural reform.

並對抗任何結構改革的企圖。

But here's the thing:

但是，重點來了：

the Outer Space Treaty has already made these structural reforms.

《外太空條約》已經做到 這些結構性的改革。

At the height of the Cold War,

在冷戰時期的高峰，

terrified that each would get to the Moon first,

美國與蘇聯因害怕對方會率先登陸月球

the United States and the USSR

made the Westphalian equivalent of a deal with the devil.

而簽署了一項魔鬼交易，相當於 太空等級的西伐利亞合約。

By requiring free access and preventing territorial appropriation,

允許自由進出但防止領土佔據，

we are required to redesign our most basic institutions,

我們需要重新設計最基本的體制，

and perhaps in doing so,

或許在這麼做時，

learn something new we can apply here on Earth.

我們能夠學到可以應用 在地球上的新事物。

So although the Moon might seem a little far away sometimes,

雖然，有時候月球看起來有點遙遠，

how we answer basic questions now

但我們現在如何回答這些基礎的問題，

will set precedent for who has a seat at the table

將會為以下問題樹立先例： 誰能握有決定權？

and what consent looks like.

以及，甚麼能算是共識？

And these are questions of social technology,

而這是關於社會技術的問題，

not rockets and hardware.

與火箭和硬體無關。

In fact, these conversations are starting to happen right now.

事實上，關於這些問題的 對話現在正要開始。

The space community is discussing basic shared agreements,

航太界正在討論基礎的共同協議，

such as how do we designate lunar areas as heritage sites,

像是：我們如何將月球區域 指定為文化遺產？

and how do we get permission for where to land

我們如何在傳統的外部權威不適用時 獲得在某處登陸的許可？

when traditional external authority

doesn't apply?

How do we enforce requirements for coordination

如果指示其他人去哪裡是違規的， 我們該如何要求他們配合呢？

when it's against the rules to tell people where to go?

And how do we manage access to scarce resources

還有，我們如何管理稀缺資源的取得，

such as water, minerals

例如水、礦物，

or even the peaks of eternal light --

甚至是永晝峰呢？

craters that sit at just the right latitude

永晝峰是位於恰當緯度的隕石坑，

to receive near-constant exposure to sunlight --

因幾乎可隨時受到陽光照射，

and therefore, power?

以及陽光的能量。

Now, some people think that the lack of rules on the Moon

有些人會因月球上缺乏規則

is terrifying.

而感到恐懼，

And there are legitimately some terrifying elements of it.

其中確實也存在令人恐懼的成分。

If there are no rules on the Moon,

如果月球上沒有任何規則，

then won't we end up in a first-come, first-served situation?

那我們不就會陷入 「先到先得」的情況嗎？

And we might,

這是有可能的──

if we dismiss this moment.

若此刻我們對這些問題不予理會的話。

But not if we're willing to be bold and to engage the challenge.

但若我們願意大膽一點， 並願意面對挑戰的話，就不會發生。

As we learned in our communities of self-governance,

就像我們在自治的社群中 所學習到的那樣，

it's easier to create something new than trying to dismantle the old.

創造新事物比廢除舊的還要來得容易。

And where else but the Moon

而還有別處比月球

can we prototype new institutions at global scale

有更好的獨立環境， 並具備我們所需的設計限制，

in a self-contained environment with the exact design constraints needed

供我們建立全球規模的新制度原型，

for our biggest challenges here on Earth?

來解決我們在地球上的大難題嗎？

Back in 1999,

回到 1999 年，

the United Nations taught a group of young space geeks

聯合國教導了一群 熱衷於研究太空的年輕人，

that we could think bigger,

我們可以想得更大、更遠，

that we could impact nations if we chose to.

如果我們願意的話， 甚至能對各國產生影響力。

Today, the stage is set for the next step:

今天，我們已經為下一步做好準備：

to envision what comes after territory and borders.

展望超越領土與國界的未來。

Thank you.

感謝聆聽。