请双击下面的英文字幕来播放视频。
翻译人员: Hong Li
校对人员: 易帆 余
00:12
So, let me add to the complexity
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让我们来整理一下思绪,
00:14
of the situation we find ourselves in.
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看看我们目前所处的复杂情况。
00:17
At the same time that we're solving
for climate change,
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在我们解决气候变化问题的同时,
00:21
we're going to be building cities
for three billion people.
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我们还要建造
供三十亿人口居住的城市。
00:26
That's a doubling
of the urban environment.
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这将是我们目前城市规模的两倍。
00:29
If we don't get that right,
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这件事如果我们没做好,
00:31
I'm not sure all the climate solutions
in the world will save mankind,
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我不确定全球的气候变化解决方案
能否拯救人类,
00:36
because so much depends
on how we shape our cities:
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因为这在很大程度上
取决于我们如何建造我们的城市:
00:40
not just environmental impacts,
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不仅是对环境的冲击,
00:42
but our social well-being,
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还有我们的社会福利,
00:44
our economic vitality,
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经济活力,
00:46
our sense of community and connectedness.
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我们对于社区和交流的感受。
00:49
Fundamentally, the way we shape cities
is a manifestation
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从根本上说,我们建造城市的方式
00:53
of the kind of humanity we bring to bear.
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体现了我们的人性。
00:55
And so getting it right is, I think,
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因此我认为,把这件事情做好,
00:58
the order of the day.
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是我们的当务之急。
01:00
And to a certain degree, getting it right
can help us solve climate change,
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从某种意义上来说,
做好这件事有助于解决气候变化问题,
01:04
because in the end,
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因为归根结底,
01:05
it's our behavior that seems
to be driving the problem.
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是我们的行为造成了气候问题。
01:08
The problem isn't free-floating,
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气候问题并不是孤立的,
01:10
and it isn't just ExxonMobil
and oil companies.
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不仅仅因为埃克森美孚
或者其他石油公司。
01:14
It's us; how we live.
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原因在于我们,我们的生活方式。
01:18
How we live.
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我们如何生活。
01:19
There's a villain in this story.
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这个故事里有一个坏人。
01:21
It's called sprawl,
and I'll be upfront about that.
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它的名字叫城市蔓生,
我会实话实说。
01:24
But it's not just the kind of sprawl
you think of, or many people think of,
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但它并不是你们大家,
或者许多人想象的那样,
01:28
as low-density development
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好像只会在低密度区域,
01:30
out at the periphery
of the metropolitan area.
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或都会区外围的郊区发生。
01:33
Actually, I think sprawl can happen
anywhere, at any density.
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实际上,我觉得这样杂乱无序的拓展
在任何地方,任何密度下,都有可能发生。
01:39
The key attribute
is that it isolates people.
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它的主要特色就是
隔离了人与人之间的距离。
01:42
It segregates people
into economic enclaves
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它造成经济上的贫富差距,
01:46
and land-use enclaves.
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并形成了土地利用上的单一化。
01:48
It separates them from nature.
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将他们同自然隔离开。
01:50
It doesn't allow the cross-fertilization,
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它不允许异业的结合,
01:53
the interaction,
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限制了人际的交流与沟通,
01:54
that make cities great places
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而这些恰恰是使城市变得伟大
01:57
and that make society thrive.
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让社会繁荣发展的因素。
02:00
So the antidote to sprawl is really
what we all need to be thinking about,
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所以我们要好好思考
城市蔓生的解药,
02:04
especially when we're taking on
this massive construction project.
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尤其是当我们
要建设如此大的项目的时候。
02:09
So let me take you through one exercise.
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让我来举一个例子。
02:12
We developed the model
for the state of California
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我们为加州设计了一个模型,
来降低碳排放量。
02:16
so they could get on
with reducing carbon emissions.
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02:19
We did a whole series of scenarios
for how the state could grow,
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我们做了一系列的
都市发展情境的模拟,
02:25
and this is just one
overly simplified one.
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经过我们高度简化,
02:28
We mixed different development prototypes
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与溷合了不同的发展原型,
02:31
and said they're going to carry us
through the year 2050,
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假定持续直到2050年,
02:35
10 million new crew
in our state of California.
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加州将有一千万的新成员加入,
02:40
And one was sprawl.
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其中一种情境就是蔓生。
02:41
It's just more of the same:
shopping malls, subdivisions,
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跟过去的情况差不多:
购物中心、土地分割、
02:45
office parks.
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办公园区。
02:46
The other one was dominated by,
not everybody moving to the city,
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另外一种情况,
并不是所有人都涌向城市,
02:50
but just compact development,
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而是密集的发展,
02:52
what we used to think of
as streetcar suburbs,
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比如将郊区的有轨电车搬到市区、
02:54
walkable neighborhoods,
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方便散步的社区,
02:55
low-rise, but integrated,
mixed-used environments.
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建筑物的层高有限,
但整体密集发展、综合使用的环境。
03:00
And the results are astounding.
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最后的结果令人震惊。
03:03
They're astounding not just
for the scale of the difference
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这样的改变不仅与过去的
03:06
of this one shift
in our city-making habit
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城市设计习惯有很大的不同,
03:10
but also because each one represents
a special interest group,
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也与特殊利益群体的认知不同,因为
每种类型都代表了一个特殊利益群体,
03:16
a special interest group
that used to advocate for their concerns
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这些群体过去只关注自己眼前的利益,
03:20
one at a time.
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而无长远的计划。
03:21
They did not see the, what I call,
"co-benefits" of urban form
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他们看不到城市形态带来的好处,
我称之为“共赢利益”,
03:26
that allows them to join with others.
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可以让他们彼此融合。
03:29
So, land consumption:
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比如,土地消耗问题:
03:30
environmentalists are really
concerned about this,
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环保主义者很关心,
03:33
so are farmers;
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还有农民,
03:35
there's a whole range of people,
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还有很多人
03:37
and, of course, neighborhood groups
that want open space nearby.
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社区团体想开放临近的空间。
03:41
The sprawl version of California
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加州的蔓生版本
03:43
almost doubles the urban
physical footprint.
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其都市实体的碳足迹
几乎是(图上智能成长版本)的两倍。
03:48
Greenhouse gas: tremendous savings,
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(智能成长版本的)温室气体:
排放大幅下降,
03:50
because in California, our biggest
carbon emission comes from cars,
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因为在加州,
碳排放的最大来源是汽车,
03:55
and cities that don't depend
on cars as much
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如果城市不再像以往一样依赖汽车,
03:59
obviously create huge savings.
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当然会降低排放。
04:03
Vehicle miles traveled:
that's what I was just talking about.
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汽车的行驶里程,
就是我刚刚提到的。
04:06
Just reducing the average 10,000 miles
per household per year,
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每户每年平均下降了一万英里,
04:11
from somewhere
in the mid-26,000 per household,
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有些地方甚至达到
每户两万六千多英里,
04:16
has a huge impact
not just on air quality and carbon
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这不仅大幅改善
空气质量,降低碳排放,
04:21
but also on the household pocketbook.
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对节省家庭开支也大有好处。
04:24
It's very expensive to drive that much,
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因为开车真的非常贵,
04:27
and as we've seen,
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我们能看到,
04:28
the middle class is struggling to hold on.
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中产阶级都有点无力承担。
04:32
Health care: we were talking about
how do you fix it once we broke it --
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关于医疗,我们以前谈论的是,
一旦出了问题我们该如何补救,
04:36
clean the air.
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改善空气质量。
04:37
Why not just stop polluting?
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那为什么不停止污染它呢?
04:39
Why not just use our feet and bikes more?
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为什么不多走路和骑自行车呢?
04:42
And that's a function of the kinds
of cities that we shape.
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这也是我们要打造的城市
所拥有的功能。
04:47
Household costs:
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家庭开支。
04:49
2008 was a mark in time,
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2008年是历史性的一年,
04:51
not of just the financial
industry running amok.
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不仅金融业失去控制。
04:55
It was that we were trying to sell
too many of the wrong kind of housing:
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我们当时也销售了
太多不合宜的住宅建筑:
05:00
large lot, single family, distant,
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大地块,独门独户,遥远的距离,
05:03
too expensive for the average
middle-class family to afford
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一般中产阶级根本负担不起,
05:07
and, quite frankly, not a good fit
to their lifestyle anymore.
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更明显的一点是,
不再符合他们的生活方式。
05:10
But in order to move inventory,
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但为了摆脱债务,
05:13
you can discount the financing
and get it sold.
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你可以把它卖掉,减少按揭。
05:16
I think that's a lot of what happened.
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我想这种情况很常见。
05:18
Reducing cost by 10,000 dollars --
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减少1万美元的支出——
05:21
remember, in California
the median is 50,000 --
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不要忘记,加州
中产阶级的收入是5万——
05:23
this is a big element.
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这是笔很大的支出。
05:25
That's just cars and utility costs.
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那才只计算车辆跟设备的费用而已。
05:28
So the affordable housing advocates,
who often sit off in their silos
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那些提倡可负担住房的人,
常常只坐在自己家中,
05:32
separate from the environmentalists,
separate from the politicians,
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不跟环境学家或政治领袖
交换意见。
05:37
everybody fighting with everyone,
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造成大家谁也不让谁,
05:39
now begin to see common cause,
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总算开始注意到共同的原因了,
05:41
and I think the common cause
is what really brings about the change.
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但我认为认知到这些共同的原因,
才能带来真正的变革。
05:45
Los Angeles, as a result of these efforts,
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洛杉矶,由于这些努力的结果,
05:48
has now decided to transform itself
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决定将自己转型为
05:51
into a more transit-oriented environment.
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一个以公共交通导向的环境。
05:55
As a matter of fact, since '08,
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实际上,从2008年开始,
05:56
they've voted in 400 billion dollars
of bonds for transit
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洛杉矶就投票表决将4000亿美元的
债券拿来建设公共交通,
06:00
and zero dollars for new highways.
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但建设高速公路的预算是零。
06:03
What a transformation:
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转变是巨大的:
06:04
LA becomes a city of walkers and transit,
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洛杉矶成为了一座散步
和公共交通之城,
06:08
not a city of cars.
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而不是汽车城。
06:09
(Applause)
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(掌声)
怎么做到的呢?
06:10
How does it happen?
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06:11
You take the least
desirable land, the strip,
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把那些人们最不喜欢的车道
06:13
you add where there's space, transit
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放上公交系统,
06:15
and then you infill mixed-use development,
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然后加上多功能的开发区,
06:20
you satisfy new housing demands
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满足人们新的住房需求,
06:22
and you make the existing neighborhoods
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建设令人兴奋的社区,
06:24
all around it more complex,
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更加综合性,
06:25
more interesting, more walkable.
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更加有趣,更适合步行。
06:28
Here's another kind of sprawl:
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还有另一种蔓生方式,
06:31
China, high-density sprawl,
what you think of as an oxymoron,
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在中国,高密度的,
你们也许会觉得这有点矛盾,
但其实是一样的问题。
每个人都被高楼大厦孤立,
06:35
but the same problems,
everything isolated in superblocks,
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06:38
and of course this amazing smog
that was just spoken to.
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当然还有刚才提到过的雾霾。
06:42
Twelve percent of GDP
in China now is spent
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中国GDP总量的12%
被用在处理雾霾带来的健康问题。
06:45
on the health impacts of that.
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06:47
The history, of course,
of Chinese cities is robust.
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毫无疑问,中国城市的
发展非常迅猛。
06:50
It's like any other place.
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跟其他任何地方一样。
06:52
Community was all about small, local shops
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所谓社区,应该有小店铺,
06:55
and local services and walking,
interacting with your neighbors.
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本地化的服务,可以散步,
与邻居互动。
06:59
It may sound utopian, but it's not.
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听起来不切实际,
但并非遥不可及。
07:01
It's actually what people really want.
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这正是人们真正想要的。
07:03
The new superblocks --
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新的超级小区——
07:05
these are blocks that would have
5,000 units in them,
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可能有5000户人家住在里面,
07:09
and they're gated as well,
because nobody knows anybody else.
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大家都门户紧闭,互不相识。
07:12
And of course, there isn't even
a sidewalk, no ground floor shops --
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当然,也没有
散步步道,没有底层商铺,
07:16
a very sterile environment.
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非常无趣的环境。
07:18
I found this one case
here in one of the superblocks
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我在其中一个超级小区中
发现了一件事,
07:23
where people had illicitly set up
shops in their garages
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人们在自家车库私自开了商店,
07:26
so that they could have that kind
of local service economy.
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这样他们就能获得本地化服务。
07:30
The desire of people
to get it right is there.
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人们想让都市更美好的
需求就摆在那儿。
07:35
We just have to get the planners
on board and the politicians.
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我们只是需要让规划者
和政治家意识到。
07:38
All right. Some technical planning stuff.
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好的,下面是一些
规划技术层面的内容。
07:42
Chongqing is a city of 30 million people.
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重庆是一座拥有
3000万人口的城市。
07:46
It's almost as big as California.
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几乎跟加州一样多。
07:48
This is a small growth area.
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这是一个小的开发区。
07:50
They wanted us to test
the alternative to sprawl
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他们想让我们
在中国的一些城市中
07:53
in several cities across China.
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测试城市蔓生的替代方案。
07:56
This is for four-and-a-half
million people.
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这里将会有450万人口。
08:00
What the takeaway from this image is,
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这幅图里最重要的一点是,
08:02
every one of those circles
is a walking radius
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每一个圆圈代表的
是步行的区域,
08:04
around a transit station --
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圆心位置是公共交通系统,
08:07
massive investment in metro and BRT,
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他们投入大量资金
建设地铁和快速公交,
08:10
and a distribution that allows everybody
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并且合理分布,
08:13
to work within walking distance of that.
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每一个人都可以步行上班。
08:15
The red area, this is a blow-up.
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红色的区域,就更厉害了。
08:18
All of a sudden, our principles
called for green space
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一夜之间,所有的设计原则
全转向诉求绿色空间
08:21
preserving the important
ecological features.
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以及保护生态特征。
08:24
And then those other streets in there
are auto-free streets.
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其它的街道都是禁止车辆通行的。
08:29
So instead of bulldozing,
leveling the site
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他们并没有推平岸边的树木,
08:32
and building right up to the river,
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或把房子建到河边,
08:35
this green edge was something
that really wasn't normative in China
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而是将以往并不常见的
绿化带观念带进中国,
08:39
until these set of practices
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从我们在这片区域
08:41
began experimentation there.
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做实验性的行动就开始进行了。
08:44
The urban fabric, small blocks,
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这里的城市结构,是小区块的,
08:46
maybe 500 families per block.
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每个区块可能有500户人家。
08:49
They know each other.
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他们相互认识。
08:50
The street perimeter has shops
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街道两旁有商店,
08:53
so there's local destinations.
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居民有地方可去。
08:55
And the streets themselves become smaller,
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街道变小了,
08:57
because there are more of them.
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因为数量增加了。
08:59
Very simple,
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非常简单,
09:00
straightforward urban design.
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直接的城市设计理念。
09:03
Now, here you have something
I dearly love.
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还有一点我非常喜欢。
09:06
Think of the logic.
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想象一下。
09:08
If only a third of the people have cars,
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如果只有三分之一的人有车,
09:10
why do we give 100 percent
of our streets to cars?
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那我们为什么要
把街道的使用权全部给车呢?
09:14
What if we gave 70 percent of the streets
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如果我们把70%的街道
09:17
to car-free, to everybody else,
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让给步行街,让给行人,
09:20
so that the transit
could move well for them,
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这样公共交通就能更好地提供服务,
09:22
so that they could walk,
so they could bike?
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他们可以选择步行,选择骑车。
09:24
Why not have --
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为什么不……
09:26
(Applause)
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(掌声)
09:27
geographic equity
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建立一个土地使用平等的
09:29
in our circulation system?
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交通系统?
09:32
And quite frankly,
cities would function better.
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显而易见,城市会运行得更好。
09:36
No matter what they do,
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在北京,无论采取什么措施,
09:37
no matter how many ring roads
they build in Beijing,
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无论修多少环线,
09:40
they just can't overcome
complete gridlock.
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他们都无法解决堵车问题。
09:43
So this is an auto-free street,
mixed use along the edge.
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这是一条步行街,
两边是综合利用区。
09:47
It has transit running down the middle.
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中间有公交系统。
09:49
I'm happy to make that transit
autonomous vehicles,
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我很乐意看到公交系统
使用无人驾驶车辆,
09:52
but maybe I'll have a chance
to talk about that later.
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但也许过一会儿
我们再来讨论这个问题。
09:55
So there are seven principles
that have now been adopted
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目前有七项原则,
09:59
by the highest levels
in the Chinese government,
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已经被中国政府最高层所接受,
10:01
and they're moving to implement them.
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他们准备要付诸实施了。
10:03
And they're simple,
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这些原则很简单,
10:04
and they are globally,
I think, universal principles.
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我觉得对其他国家也适用。
10:07
One is to preserve
the natural environment, the history
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第一条就是保护自然环境,保护历史,
10:11
and the critical agriculture.
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1967
保护关键性的农业。
10:14
Second is mix.
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1323
第二条是溷合发展。
10:15
Mixed use is popular,
but when I say mixed,
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2517
溷合利用很流行,我所指的溷合,
是指不同收入,不同年龄的群体,
10:18
I mean mixed incomes, mixed age groups
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2439
10:20
as well as mixed-land use.
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还有对于土地的综合利用。
10:24
Walk.
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步行。
10:25
There's no great city
that you don't enjoy walking in.
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3020
所有伟大的城市都欢迎你漫步其中。
10:28
You don't go there.
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否则你就不会去那里。
10:29
The places you go on vacation
are places you can walk.
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你去的度假地
肯定是可以散步的地方。
10:32
Why not make it everywhere?
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那为什么不把所有的地方
都变成这样呢?
10:34
Bike is the most efficient
means of transportation we know.
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3572
自行车是最高效的交通方式。
10:38
China has now adopted policies
that put six meters of bike lane
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3748
中国已经采取政策,
要在每条街道
10:42
on every street.
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1329
设立六米宽的自行车道。
10:43
They're serious about getting back
to their biking history.
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3942
他们真的想回归骑自行车的年代。
10:47
(Applause)
217
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1456
(掌声)
10:48
Complicated planner-ese here:
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2303
下面是比较复杂的规划了:
10:51
connect.
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1329
连通。
10:52
It's a street network
that allows many routes
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3512
这是一个街道网络,
允许有多种路线组合,
10:56
instead of singular routes
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1811
而不仅仅是单一路线,
10:57
and provides many kinds of streets
instead of just one.
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3547
也可以建造多种多样的街道。
11:02
Ride.
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1344
汽车
11:03
We have to invest more in transit.
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公共交通系统需要更多投资。
11:06
There's no silver bullet.
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1775
没有捷径可走。
11:08
Autonomous vehicles are not
going to solve this for us.
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无人驾驶汽车无法帮我们解决问题。
11:11
As a matter of fact, they're going
to generate more traffic, more VMT,
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5166
实际上,跟传统车相比,
无人车会产生更多交通流量,
11:16
than the alternative.
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1362
更多车辆行驶里程。
11:17
And focus.
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1214
另外还有,集中性。
11:18
We have a hierarchy of the city
based on transit
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4156
我们在城市的公交系统上
是分层级的,
11:23
rather than the old armature of freeways.
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3163
这跟老式的以高速公路
为枢纽的老城市相比
11:26
It's a big paradigm shift,
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2150
是非常大的一种改变,
11:29
but those two things
have to get reconnected
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2667
但是这两种形式必须
重新连接起来,
11:31
in ways that really shape
the structure of the city.
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4520
来重新构建城市的结构。
11:37
So I'm very hopeful.
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2233
我对此充满希望。
11:39
In California, the United States, China --
these changes are well accepted.
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4773
在加州,在美国,在中国,
这些变化都被广泛接受。
11:44
I'm hopeful for two reasons.
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2635
我充满希望有两个原因。
11:46
One is, most people get it.
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2079
第一,大部分人都懂。
11:49
They understand intrinsically
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1882
他们打从心底认同,
11:50
what a great city can and should be.
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2642
一个伟大的城市可以,
而且也必须要有的样貌;
11:53
The second is that the kind of analysis
we can bring to bear now
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4841
第二个原因是这样的分析结果
可以发挥作用,
11:58
allows people to connect the dots,
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2728
它将人们连接起来,
12:01
allows people to shape
political coalitions
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721756
2969
让人们建立起
12:04
that didn't exist in the past.
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1429
前所未有的政治联盟。
12:06
That allows them to bring into being
the kinds of communities we all need.
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3740
进而让他们建立起
我们梦寐以求的社区。
12:10
Thank you.
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谢谢大家。
12:11
(Applause)
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6577
(掌声)
12:19
Chris Anderson: So, OK:
autonomous driving, self-driving cars.
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3437
克里斯·安德森(CA):
好的,自动驾驶,无人驾驶汽车。
12:23
A lot of people here
are very excited about them.
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3345
在座有很多人都对此非常兴奋。
12:27
What are your concerns
or issues about them?
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2959
你为什么会对此表示担忧呢?
12:30
Peter Calthorpe: Well, I think
there's almost too much hype here.
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3142
皮特·卡尔索普(PC):因为我觉得
这裡头有太多炒作了。
12:33
First is, everybody says
we're going to get rid of a lot of cars.
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3574
首先,每个人都说
我们会减少许多车辆。
12:37
What they don't say is you're going
to get a lot more vehicle miles.
253
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3294
但是他们不敢说
这反而会增加许多行车里程。
因为会有更多的车行驶在路上。
12:40
You're going to get a lot more
cars moving on streets.
254
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2547
12:42
There will be more congestion.
255
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1869
会更加拥堵。
12:44
CA: Because they're so appealing --
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2308
CA:因为它们是如此方便,
12:47
you can drive while reading or sleeping.
257
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2054
你可以在阅读和睡觉的时候行驶。
12:49
PC: Well, a couple of reasons.
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1497
PC:有很多原因。
12:50
One is, if they're privately owned,
people will travel greater distances.
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3971
其中一点是,如果车辆是私人的,
大家会行驶更远的距离。
12:54
It'll be a new lease on life to sprawl.
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1941
会让城市蔓生重新开始。
12:56
If you can work on your way to work,
261
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2015
如果你可以在上班途中工作,
12:58
you can live in more remote locations.
262
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你就可以选择住在更远的地方。
13:00
It'll revitalize sprawl
263
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2542
这会使城市蔓生
13:03
in a way that I'm deeply frightened.
264
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2333
以一种我非常害怕的方式复苏。
13:05
Taxis:
265
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1854
出租车,
13:07
about 50 percent of the surveys say
that people won't share them.
266
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3748
有50%的调查结果显示,
人们不愿意拼车。
13:11
If they don't share them,
267
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1374
如果不拼车,
13:12
you can end up with a 90 percent
increase in vehicle miles traveled.
268
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5197
可能会增加90%的车辆行驶里程。
13:18
If you share them,
269
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1321
如果拼车,
13:19
you're still at around
a 30 percent increase in VMT.
270
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3530
也会增加大约30%。
13:23
CA: Sharing them, meaning
having multiple people riding at once
271
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3038
CA:拼车,就是说几个人
通过某种智能共享的方式
13:26
in some sort of intelligent ride-sharing?
272
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1976
同时乘坐一辆车?
PC:是的,就是无人驾驶的优步。
13:28
PC: Yeah, so the Uber share
without a steering wheel.
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2531
13:30
The reality is, the efficiency
of vehicles -- you can do it
274
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3849
但实际情况是,车辆的效率
13:34
with or without a steering wheel,
it doesn't matter.
275
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2491
跟有没有方向盘并没有太大关系。
13:37
They claim they're the only ones
that are going to be efficient electric,
276
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3493
他们宣称自己将是
唯一能让电动车变得高效的,
但这并不是真的。
13:40
but that's not true.
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1154
说到底,步行,自行车和公共交通
13:42
But the real bottom line
is that walking, biking and transit
278
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3570
13:45
are the way cities and communities thrive.
279
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3164
才能让城市和社区繁荣发展。
13:48
And putting people
in their private bubbles,
280
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2807
让人们藏在自己私密的小空间里,
13:51
whether they have a steering wheel or not,
281
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2297
无论有没有方向盘,
13:53
is the wrong direction.
282
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1571
都是错误的发展方向。
13:55
And quite frankly,
283
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1151
坦白来说,
13:56
the image of an AV on its way
to McDonald's to pick up a pack
284
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5679
我一想象,一辆无人驾驶车
去麦当劳取餐,
14:02
without its owner,
285
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1684
它的主人并不在车里,
14:04
just being sent off on these
kind of random errands
286
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3710
它被派出去做各种差事,
14:07
is really frightening to me.
287
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1397
就让我觉得害怕。
14:09
CA: Well, thank you for that,
and I have to say, the images you showed
288
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3358
CA:好的,谢谢你的分享,
我不得不说,你给我们展示的
14:12
of those mixed-use streets
were really inspiring, really beautiful.
289
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综合利用的街道,
非常有启发性,非常美妙。
14:15
PC: Thank you.
CA: Thank you for your work.
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2159
PC:谢谢你。
CA:谢谢你所做的工作。
14:18
(Applause)
291
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1459
(掌声)
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