請雙擊下方英文字幕播放視頻。
譯者: Lilian Chiu
審譯者: Helen Chang
讓我為我們現在的處境
再增加一些複雜度。
在我們想辦法處理氣候變遷的同時,
我們也要為三十億人建造城市。
00:12
So, let me add to the complexity
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00:14
of the situation we find ourselves in.
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也就是要把都市環境再增加一倍。
00:17
At the same time that we're solving
for climate change,
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如果我們沒有做對,
世界上所有的氣候解決方案
可能也無法拯救人類,
00:21
we're going to be building cities
for three billion people.
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因為我們形塑城市的方式,
具有很大的影響力:
00:26
That's a doubling
of the urban environment.
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不僅影響環境,
00:29
If we don't get that right,
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還有我們的社會福祉、
我們的經濟活力,
00:31
I'm not sure all the climate solutions
in the world will save mankind,
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我們的社群意識,以及連結性。
00:36
because so much depends
on how we shape our cities:
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我們形塑城市的方式
基本上就是在呈現
00:40
not just environmental impacts,
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我們想要發揮什麼樣的人性。
00:42
but our social well-being,
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所以我認為把它做對
00:44
our economic vitality,
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00:46
our sense of community and connectedness.
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非常重要。
且在某種程度上,把它做對
也能協助我們解決氣候變遷,
00:49
Fundamentally, the way we shape cities
is a manifestation
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因為,到頭來,這個問題
背後的推手似乎是我們的行為。
00:53
of the kind of humanity we bring to bear.
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00:55
And so getting it right is, I think,
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這個問題並不是獨立的,
也不只是埃克森美孚
00:58
the order of the day.
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01:00
And to a certain degree, getting it right
can help us solve climate change,
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和石油公司要負責。
源頭是我們;我們的生活方式。
01:04
because in the end,
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01:05
it's our behavior that seems
to be driving the problem.
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我們的生活方式。
在這個故事中有個壞蛋,
叫做蔓延(擴張),
01:08
The problem isn't free-floating,
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01:10
and it isn't just ExxonMobil
and oil companies.
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我會很坦白來談它。
但,並不是各位或許多人
認為的那種蔓延,
01:14
It's us; how we live.
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不是指在大都會地區
周邊的低密度發展。
01:18
How we live.
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01:19
There's a villain in this story.
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01:21
It's called sprawl,
and I'll be upfront about that.
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其實,任何密度的任何地方
都可能出現蔓延。
01:24
But it's not just the kind of sprawl
you think of, or many people think of,
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蔓延的關鍵特色是會把人隔離。
01:28
as low-density development
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01:30
out at the periphery
of the metropolitan area.
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它會用經濟飛地
01:33
Actually, I think sprawl can happen
anywhere, at any density.
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及土地用途飛地將人分離。
它會把人和大自然分開。
01:39
The key attribute
is that it isolates people.
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它不容許雜交、互動,
01:42
It segregates people
into economic enclaves
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但這些元素能讓城市變好,
讓社會繁榮。
01:46
and land-use enclaves.
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01:48
It separates them from nature.
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所以我們應該好好思考
蔓延的解藥是什麼,
01:50
It doesn't allow the cross-fertilization,
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特別是在我們要承擔
這個重大的建造計畫時。
01:53
the interaction,
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01:54
that make cities great places
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01:57
and that make society thrive.
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讓我帶大家看一個模擬演練。
02:00
So the antidote to sprawl is really
what we all need to be thinking about,
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我們為加州開發出了這個模型,
讓他們在減少碳排放
方面能有所進展。
02:04
especially when we're taking on
this massive construction project.
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我們做了各種加州
可能發生的成長情境,
02:09
So let me take you through one exercise.
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02:12
We developed the model
for the state of California
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這只是其中一個過度簡化的情境。
02:16
so they could get on
with reducing carbon emissions.
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我們混合了不同的發展原型,
02:19
We did a whole series of scenarios
for how the state could grow,
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假設要處理的目標是在 2050 年時
加州會增加一千萬新成員。
02:25
and this is just one
overly simplified one.
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02:28
We mixed different development prototypes
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其中一個原型就是蔓延,
更多的如出一轍:
02:31
and said they're going to carry us
through the year 2050,
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購物中心、分區、辦公園區。
另一個原型的重點是,
並非人人都搬到城市中,
02:35
10 million new crew
in our state of California.
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只是緊實的發展,即我們
以前所謂的有軌電車郊區,
02:40
And one was sprawl.
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02:41
It's just more of the same:
shopping malls, subdivisions,
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走得到的鄰里,低樓層,
但卻是多用途的整合環境。
02:45
office parks.
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02:46
The other one was dominated by,
not everybody moving to the city,
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而結果十分驚人。
02:50
but just compact development,
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驚人的原因不只是因為
02:52
what we used to think of
as streetcar suburbs,
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把城市建設習慣
做一點小轉變就能帶來
02:54
walkable neighborhoods,
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02:55
low-rise, but integrated,
mixed-used environments.
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這麼大的差異,
也是因為每個鄰里都代表
一個特殊的利益團體,
03:00
And the results are astounding.
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03:03
They're astounding not just
for the scale of the difference
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這些特殊利益團體以往倡導
他們關心的議題時必須要
03:06
of this one shift
in our city-making habit
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一個一個來。
它們以往沒有看見
03:10
but also because each one represents
a special interest group,
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我所謂都市形式的「共同利益」:
讓它們可以與其他人結合。
03:16
a special interest group
that used to advocate for their concerns
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比如,土地消耗,
環保人士非常關心這個議題,
03:20
one at a time.
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03:21
They did not see the, what I call,
"co-benefits" of urban form
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農民也很關心;
有各種人,當然,還有希望
附近有開放空間的鄰里團體。
03:26
that allows them to join with others.
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03:29
So, land consumption:
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蔓延版的加州
03:30
environmentalists are really
concerned about this,
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會讓都市實體足跡變成近兩倍。
03:33
so are farmers;
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03:35
there's a whole range of people,
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溫室氣體:大量減少,
03:37
and, of course, neighborhood groups
that want open space nearby.
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因為加州最大的碳排放來源是汽車,
03:41
The sprawl version of California
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03:43
almost doubles the urban
physical footprint.
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不那麼仰賴汽車的城市
很明顯能大大減少溫室氣體。
03:48
Greenhouse gas: tremendous savings,
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03:50
because in California, our biggest
carbon emission comes from cars,
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車輛行駛里程數:
這就是我剛才談的。
只要把每戶每年的平均
哩程數減少一萬哩,
03:55
and cities that don't depend
on cars as much
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03:59
obviously create huge savings.
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原本每戶有兩萬六千五百哩左右,
04:03
Vehicle miles traveled:
that's what I was just talking about.
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不僅對空氣品質和碳
會有很大的影響,
04:06
Just reducing the average 10,000 miles
per household per year,
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也會影響到家庭經濟狀況。
04:11
from somewhere
in the mid-26,000 per household,
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開那麼多哩程數是很昂貴的,
我們已經發現,
04:16
has a huge impact
not just on air quality and carbon
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中產階級要維持生活都很辛苦。
健康照護:我們先前談過
破壞之後要如何修復——
04:21
but also on the household pocketbook.
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04:24
It's very expensive to drive that much,
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把空氣清乾淨。
為什麼不停止污染?
04:27
and as we've seen,
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為什麼不多用步行或騎單車?
04:28
the middle class is struggling to hold on.
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我們想要打造的城市就這個功能。
04:32
Health care: we were talking about
how do you fix it once we broke it --
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家庭開銷:
04:36
clean the air.
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04:37
Why not just stop polluting?
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2008 年是標誌性的一年,
04:39
Why not just use our feet and bikes more?
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不只是金融業大亂,
04:42
And that's a function of the kinds
of cities that we shape.
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還有我們試圖銷售太多不對的住房:
04:47
Household costs:
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大面積、單一家庭、距離遠,
04:49
2008 was a mark in time,
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04:51
not of just the financial
industry running amok.
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昂貴到一般中產家庭無法負擔,
04:55
It was that we were trying to sell
too many of the wrong kind of housing:
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且,老實說,也不再
符合他們的生活方式。
但,為了清庫存,
05:00
large lot, single family, distant,
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你可以在資金上
打個折扣就把它賣掉。
05:03
too expensive for the average
middle-class family to afford
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我想現實很多情況就是如此。
把成本降低一萬美金——
05:07
and, quite frankly, not a good fit
to their lifestyle anymore.
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別忘了,在加州,
中位數是五萬美金——
05:10
But in order to move inventory,
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一萬是很高的比例。
05:13
you can discount the financing
and get it sold.
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那只是汽車和水電瓦斯的成本。
05:16
I think that's a lot of what happened.
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所以,提倡可負擔住房的人,
通常都待在他們的地窖裡,
05:18
Reducing cost by 10,000 dollars --
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接觸不到環保人士,
接觸不到政治人物,
05:21
remember, in California
the median is 50,000 --
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05:23
this is a big element.
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05:25
That's just cars and utility costs.
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每個人都在和每個人爭吵,
他們也開始看見共同目標了,
05:28
So the affordable housing advocates,
who often sit off in their silos
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我認為,其實是
共同目標帶來了改變。
05:32
separate from the environmentalists,
separate from the politicians,
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這些努力的成果包括洛杉磯
現在決定要將該城市做轉變,
05:37
everybody fighting with everyone,
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05:39
now begin to see common cause,
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成為更運輸導向的環境。
05:41
and I think the common cause
is what really brings about the change.
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事實上,從 2008 年起,
他們已經透過選票投入
四千億美金在運輸公債上,
05:45
Los Angeles, as a result of these efforts,
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05:48
has now decided to transform itself
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新高速公路則一毛錢都沒有。
05:51
into a more transit-oriented environment.
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好個轉變:
洛杉磯成了步行和運輸的城市,
05:55
As a matter of fact, since '08,
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05:56
they've voted in 400 billion dollars
of bonds for transit
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而不是汽車的城市。
(掌聲)
這是怎麼發生的?
把最沒有人要的土地,帶狀區域,
06:00
and zero dollars for new highways.
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在有空間的地方加上運輸,
06:03
What a transformation:
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接著再填入
06:04
LA becomes a city of walkers and transit,
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混合用途的開發,
06:08
not a city of cars.
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能滿足新的住房需求,
06:09
(Applause)
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06:10
How does it happen?
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讓它附近既有的鄰里
06:11
You take the least
desirable land, the strip,
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變得更複雜,更有趣,更適合行走。
06:13
you add where there's space, transit
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06:15
and then you infill mixed-use development,
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以下是另一種蔓延:
中國,高密度蔓延,
高密度和蔓延聽起來很矛盾,
06:20
you satisfy new housing demands
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06:22
and you make the existing neighborhoods
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但,同樣的問題,
車輛禁行區隔開了一切,
06:24
all around it more complex,
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06:25
more interesting, more walkable.
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當然,還有剛才談過的驚人霧霾。
06:28
Here's another kind of sprawl:
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中現在國把 GDP 的 12%
06:31
China, high-density sprawl,
what you think of as an oxymoron,
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花在霧霾對健康的影響上。
06:35
but the same problems,
everything isolated in superblocks,
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當然,和其他地方一樣,
中國城市的歷史很健全。
06:38
and of course this amazing smog
that was just spoken to.
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社區的重點是小型的當地商店、
06:42
Twelve percent of GDP
in China now is spent
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當地的服務、步行、
06:45
on the health impacts of that.
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和鄰居互動。
06:47
The history, of course,
of Chinese cities is robust.
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聽起來可能像空想,但並不然。
那其實是人民真正想要的。
06:50
It's like any other place.
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新的車輛禁行區——
06:52
Community was all about small, local shops
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這些禁行區中有五千個單位,
06:55
and local services and walking,
interacting with your neighbors.
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它們通通都有門禁,
因為大家彼此不認識。
06:59
It may sound utopian, but it's not.
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當然,那裡甚至沒有人行道,
07:01
It's actually what people really want.
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07:03
The new superblocks --
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沒有一樓的店面——
非常枯燥的環境。
07:05
these are blocks that would have
5,000 units in them,
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我在其中一個車輛禁行區中
找到這個例子,
07:09
and they're gated as well,
because nobody knows anybody else.
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這裡有人違法在
自家車庫中開設商店,
07:12
And of course, there isn't even
a sidewalk, no ground floor shops --
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這樣他們才能有那種當地服務經濟。
07:16
a very sterile environment.
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07:18
I found this one case
here in one of the superblocks
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大家已經有慾望想要把它做對。
07:23
where people had illicitly set up
shops in their garages
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我們只需要找規劃師和政治人物。
07:26
so that they could have that kind
of local service economy.
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好,接下來的部分和規劃技術有關。
07:30
The desire of people
to get it right is there.
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重慶市有三千萬人口。
幾乎和加州一樣大。
07:35
We just have to get the planners
on board and the politicians.
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這是一塊小型成長區。
07:38
All right. Some technical planning stuff.
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他們希望我們去測試
中國數個城市有哪些
蔓延的替代方案。
07:42
Chongqing is a city of 30 million people.
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這是位四千五百萬人口設計的。
07:46
It's almost as big as California.
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07:48
This is a small growth area.
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這張圖要傳遞的訊息是:
07:50
They wanted us to test
the alternative to sprawl
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圖上的每一個圓圈都是運輸站
周圍步行可及的範圍——
07:53
in several cities across China.
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大量投資地鐵和巴士捷運系統,
07:56
This is for four-and-a-half
million people.
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且分佈的方式能讓每個人
08:00
What the takeaway from this image is,
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都能步行到運輸站乘車去上班。
08:02
every one of those circles
is a walking radius
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紅色的區域,把它放大來看。
08:04
around a transit station --
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突然間,我們的原則
帶來了綠色空間,
08:07
massive investment in metro and BRT,
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保存了重要的生態特色。
08:10
and a distribution that allows everybody
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08:13
to work within walking distance of that.
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那裡的其他街道都是無車街道。
08:15
The red area, this is a blow-up.
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所以,不是推土機鏟平這個地點,
08:18
All of a sudden, our principles
called for green space
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08:21
preserving the important
ecological features.
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在河流上建設,
這種綠色優勢在中國真的不常見,
08:24
And then those other streets in there
are auto-free streets.
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直到這些實做計畫
08:29
So instead of bulldozing,
leveling the site
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在這裡開始進行實驗。
08:32
and building right up to the river,
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都市紋理(面貌),小型街區,
也許每個街區五百個家庭。
08:35
this green edge was something
that really wasn't normative in China
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他們認識彼此。
街道周邊有商店,
08:39
until these set of practices
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08:41
began experimentation there.
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所以有當地的地方可以前往。
而街道本身變小,因為數量變多了。
08:44
The urban fabric, small blocks,
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08:46
maybe 500 families per block.
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非常簡單,
直接的都市設計。
08:49
They know each other.
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08:50
The street perimeter has shops
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這是我個人的最愛。
08:53
so there's local destinations.
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想想這邏輯。
08:55
And the streets themselves become smaller,
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如果只有三分之一的人有車,
08:57
because there are more of them.
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為什麼要把所有的街道都給汽車用?
08:59
Very simple,
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09:00
straightforward urban design.
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如果我們把 70% 的街道
09:03
Now, here you have something
I dearly love.
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09:06
Think of the logic.
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給其他人使用,禁行汽車,
09:08
If only a third of the people have cars,
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讓他們的通路很順暢,
09:10
why do we give 100 percent
of our streets to cars?
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他們能夠步行,能騎單車。
為什麼不——
09:14
What if we gave 70 percent of the streets
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(掌聲)
在我們的循環系統中
納入地理上的公平?
09:17
to car-free, to everybody else,
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09:20
so that the transit
could move well for them,
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坦白說,城市會運行得更好。
09:22
so that they could walk,
so they could bike?
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09:24
Why not have --
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不論他們怎麼做,不論他們
在北京建造多少環形道路,
09:26
(Applause)
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09:27
geographic equity
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他們就是無法克服
交通完全阻塞的問題。
09:29
in our circulation system?
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這是一條無車街道,
路邊做混合用途。
09:32
And quite frankly,
cities would function better.
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正下向有運輸系統在運行。
09:36
No matter what they do,
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09:37
no matter how many ring roads
they build in Beijing,
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我很樂意把下方的運輸
設計為無人駕駛車,但,
09:40
they just can't overcome
complete gridlock.
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也許後續有機會再來談。
09:43
So this is an auto-free street,
mixed use along the edge.
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所以有七項原則現在已經被
09:47
It has transit running down the middle.
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中國政府的最高階級採納,
09:49
I'm happy to make that transit
autonomous vehicles,
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且他們正在準備實施。
這些原則很簡單,
且我想都是全球通用的。
09:52
but maybe I'll have a chance
to talk about that later.
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09:55
So there are seven principles
that have now been adopted
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第一,保存自然環境、
歷史,以及重要的農業。
09:59
by the highest levels
in the Chinese government,
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10:01
and they're moving to implement them.
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第二,混合。
10:03
And they're simple,
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常聽到的是混合用途,
但我說的混合,
10:04
and they are globally,
I think, universal principles.
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我指的是混合收入、混合年齡層,
10:07
One is to preserve
the natural environment, the history
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3653
以及混合土地用途。
10:11
and the critical agriculture.
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1967
步行。沒有很棒的城市
會讓你不享受在市內步行的。
10:14
Second is mix.
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10:15
Mixed use is popular,
but when I say mixed,
205
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你不會去那種地方。
你會選擇的渡假地
會是你能步行的地方。
10:18
I mean mixed incomes, mixed age groups
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10:20
as well as mixed-land use.
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為什麼不讓處處都能步行?
單車是我們所知
最有效率的交通工具。
10:24
Walk.
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10:25
There's no great city
that you don't enjoy walking in.
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3020
中國現在實施的政策是在每條街道上
10:28
You don't go there.
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1318
10:29
The places you go on vacation
are places you can walk.
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都規劃六公尺的單車道。
他們很認真地想要找回
人人騎單車的歷史。
10:32
Why not make it everywhere?
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10:34
Bike is the most efficient
means of transportation we know.
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(掌聲)
這是個複雜的規劃師用語:連結。
10:38
China has now adopted policies
that put six meters of bike lane
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它是一種街道網路,
10:42
on every street.
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1329
會有多條路線,不只一條,
10:43
They're serious about getting back
to their biking history.
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3942
且提供多種類型的街道,不只一種。
10:47
(Applause)
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10:48
Complicated planner-ese here:
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2303
交通工具。
10:51
connect.
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1329
我們得在運輸上投資更多。
10:52
It's a street network
that allows many routes
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3512
沒有萬靈丹。
10:56
instead of singular routes
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1811
自動駕駛車輛無法
為我們解決這個問題。
10:57
and provides many kinds of streets
instead of just one.
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3547
事實上,它們會產生更多
11:02
Ride.
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1344
交通流量和車輛行駛哩程,
比其他替代方案更多。
11:03
We have to invest more in transit.
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2310
焦點。
11:06
There's no silver bullet.
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1775
城市階層的基礎是運輸
11:08
Autonomous vehicles are not
going to solve this for us.
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3064
11:11
As a matter of fact, they're going
to generate more traffic, more VMT,
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而不是舊式的高速幹道架構。
這是很重大的範式轉變,
11:16
than the alternative.
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1362
11:17
And focus.
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但這兩者必須要設法重新連結起來,
11:18
We have a hierarchy of the city
based on transit
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且要真正能夠形塑出城市的結構。
11:23
rather than the old armature of freeways.
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所以,我抱持很大的希望。
11:26
It's a big paradigm shift,
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2150
在加州、美國、中國——
11:29
but those two things
have to get reconnected
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這些改變的被接受度很高。
11:31
in ways that really shape
the structure of the city.
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4520
我抱持希望的原因有二。
第一,大部分人能懂。
11:37
So I'm very hopeful.
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他們了解,好的城市在本質上
能夠/應該是什麼樣子的。
11:39
In California, the United States, China --
these changes are well accepted.
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第二個原因是,
我們現在能夠運用的分析
11:44
I'm hopeful for two reasons.
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2635
11:46
One is, most people get it.
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讓大家能把拼圖拼起來,
11:49
They understand intrinsically
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1882
讓大家能形成過去
不存在的政治聯盟,
11:50
what a great city can and should be.
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2642
11:53
The second is that the kind of analysis
we can bring to bear now
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4841
這讓他們能夠實現出
大家都需要的那種社區。
11:58
allows people to connect the dots,
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2728
謝謝。
(掌聲)
12:01
allows people to shape
political coalitions
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2969
12:04
that didn't exist in the past.
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12:06
That allows them to bring into being
the kinds of communities we all need.
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3740
克里斯·安德森:所以,好,
自動駕駛汽車,
這裡許多人都很期待它們。
12:10
Thank you.
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12:11
(Applause)
247
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6577
你對它們的顧慮是什麼?
彼得·卡爾索普:我想,
熱度有點太過了。
12:19
Chris Anderson: So, OK:
autonomous driving, self-driving cars.
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3437
首先,大家都說我們
將可以擺脫很多汽車。
12:23
A lot of people here
are very excited about them.
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3345
他們沒有說的是,車輛哩程會大增。
12:27
What are your concerns
or issues about them?
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2959
會有更多車輛在街道上移動。
12:30
Peter Calthorpe: Well, I think
there's almost too much hype here.
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交通會更擁擠。
克:因為很吸引人——
12:33
First is, everybody says
we're going to get rid of a lot of cars.
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3574
你可以邊開車邊閱讀或睡覺。
12:37
What they don't say is you're going
to get a lot more vehicle miles.
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彼:有好幾個理由。
第一,如果它們是私有的。
12:40
You're going to get a lot more
cars moving on streets.
254
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2547
大家會行駛的距離會更長。
12:42
There will be more congestion.
255
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蔓延又會復活。如果你在
去工作的路上就可以工作,
12:44
CA: Because they're so appealing --
256
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2308
你可以住在更偏遠的地方。
12:47
you can drive while reading or sleeping.
257
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2054
蔓延又會以我十分害怕的方式再現。
12:49
PC: Well, a couple of reasons.
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1497
12:50
One is, if they're privately owned,
people will travel greater distances.
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3971
計程車:
12:54
It'll be a new lease on life to sprawl.
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1941
約有 50% 的調查指出
大家不願共享計程車。
12:56
If you can work on your way to work,
261
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2015
12:58
you can live in more remote locations.
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2067
如果不願共享,
13:00
It'll revitalize sprawl
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結果可能會是
車輛行駛哩程增加 90%。
13:03
in a way that I'm deeply frightened.
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13:05
Taxis:
265
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如果可以共享,
13:07
about 50 percent of the surveys say
that people won't share them.
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3748
車輛行駛哩程仍會增加 30%。
13:11
If they don't share them,
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克:共享的意思是用智慧的
方式讓許多人同時搭乘——
13:12
you can end up with a 90 percent
increase in vehicle miles traveled.
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彼:是的,就像沒有
方向盤的優步共享。
13:18
If you share them,
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1321
現實是,提升車輛的效率——
13:19
you're still at around
a 30 percent increase in VMT.
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3530
不論有沒有方向盤
都可以去做,無所謂。
13:23
CA: Sharing them, meaning
having multiple people riding at once
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3038
他們聲稱這是唯一高電效率的
方式,但事實不是如此。
13:26
in some sort of intelligent ride-sharing?
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1976
13:28
PC: Yeah, so the Uber share
without a steering wheel.
273
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2531
真正的情況是,步行、
騎單車、大眾運輸
13:30
The reality is, the efficiency
of vehicles -- you can do it
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才能讓城市和社區繁榮。
13:34
with or without a steering wheel,
it doesn't matter.
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2491
把人放到他們的私人泡泡裡,
13:37
They claim they're the only ones
that are going to be efficient electric,
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不論有沒有方向盤,
13:40
but that's not true.
277
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1154
13:42
But the real bottom line
is that walking, biking and transit
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是錯的方向。老實說,
自動駕駛汽車前往麥當勞取餐,
13:45
are the way cities and communities thrive.
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3164
13:48
And putting people
in their private bubbles,
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2807
車上沒有駕駛人,
13:51
whether they have a steering wheel or not,
281
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就只是被指派去完成隨機的差事,
13:53
is the wrong direction.
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1571
13:55
And quite frankly,
283
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1151
這影像讓我很害怕。
13:56
the image of an AV on its way
to McDonald's to pick up a pack
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克:謝謝你的說明,你剛才
分享那些混合用途街道的圖像,
非常鼓舞人心,非常美麗。謝謝你。
14:02
without its owner,
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1684
14:04
just being sent off on these
kind of random errands
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3710
彼:謝謝你。
(掌聲)
14:07
is really frightening to me.
287
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1397
14:09
CA: Well, thank you for that,
and I have to say, the images you showed
288
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3358
14:12
of those mixed-use streets
were really inspiring, really beautiful.
289
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3176
14:15
PC: Thank you.
CA: Thank you for your work.
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2159
14:18
(Applause)
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