The real reason manufacturing jobs are disappearing | Augie Picado

翻译人员: Hong Li 校对人员: Bangyou Xiang

When someone mentions Cuba,

当有人提到古巴的时候，

what do you think about?

你会想到什么？

Classic, classic cars?

老爷车？

Perhaps good cigars?

上等雪茄？

Maybe you think of a famous baseball player.

或者某位著名的棒球运动员。

What about when somebody mentions North Korea?

而提到北朝鲜呢？

You think about those missile tests,

你会想到导弹试射，

maybe their notorious leader

或者名声不怎么好的领导人

or his good friend, Dennis Rodman.

或者他的好朋友，丹尼斯·罗德曼。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

One thing that likely doesn't come to mind

而提到这些国家时，

is a vision of a country,

你绝不会想到的是，

an open economy,

经济开放，

whose citizens have access to a wide range of affordable consumer products.

民众能买得到众多消费品， 而且也负担得起。

I'm not here to argue how these countries got to where they are today.

我今天不想讨论这些国家 是怎么走到今天这种境地的。

I simply want to use them as an example of countries and citizens

我仅仅想把它们作为一种典型，

who have been affected, negatively affected,

来说明国家和民众， 是如何被限制进口，

by a trade policy that restricts imports

保护本地工业的贸易政策所影响，

and protects local industries.

负面的影响。

Recently we've heard a number of countries

最近我们听说有许多国家

talk about restricting imports

在谈论限制进口，

and protecting their local, domestic industries.

保护国内的工业。

Now, this may sound fine in a sound bite,

如果作为新闻标题， 可能听起来还不错，

but what it really is is protectionism.

但这实际上是一种贸易保护主义。

We heard a lot about this during the 2016 presidential election.

我们在2016年总统大选期间 听到过很多这样的表述。

We heard about it during the Brexit debates

在英国退出欧盟期间也听过不少，

and most recently during the French elections.

还有最近的法国大选也是一样。

In fact, it's been a really important topic

实际上，这个议题非常重要，

being talked about around the world,

在世界各国都是如此，

and many aspiring political leaders

许多有抱负的政治领袖

are running on platforms positioning protectionism as a good thing.

都会把贸易保护主义视为一件好事， 并将其纳入自己的纲领中。

Now, I could see why they think protectionism is good,

我现在有点明白为何他们 把贸易保护主义视为好事，

because sometimes it seems like trade is unfair.

因为有时候贸易看起来是不平等的。

Some have blamed trade

有人还会责怪贸易，

for some of the problems we've been having here at home in the US.

认为贸易是美国国内 很多问题的源头。

For years we've been hearing

有一件事情我们谈论了好几年，

about the loss of high-paying US manufacturing jobs.

就是关于美国高薪制造业 工作岗位的流失。

Many think that manufacturing is declining in the US

很多人认为美国制造业的衰退

because companies are moving their operations offshore

是因为企业将业务转移到海外那些

to markets with lower-cost labor

劳动力价格低廉的市场中去了，

like China, Mexico and Vietnam.

比如中国，墨西哥和越南。

They also think trade agreements sometimes are unfair,

他们还认为贸易协定 有时候是不公平的，

like NAFTA

比如北美自由贸易协定(NAFTA)，

and the Trans-Pacific Partnership,

比如跨太平洋伙伴关系(TPP)，

because these trade agreements allow companies

因为这些贸易协定允许企业

to reimport those cheaply produced goods back into the US

从那些获得了工作岗位的国家 重新进口廉价生产的货物

and other countries from where the jobs were taken.

到那些岗位被抢走的美国和其它国家。

So it kind of feels like the exporters win

感觉好像是出口国赚了，

and the importers lose.

而进口国亏了。

Now, the reality is

而目前的现状是，

output in the manufacturing sector in the US

美国制造业的产量

is actually growing,

实际上是在增长的，

but we are losing jobs.

但是我们的工作岗位在流失。

We're losing lots of them.

大量的流失。

In fact, from 2000 to 2010,

从2000年到2010年，

5.7 million manufacturing jobs were lost.

我们失去了570万个制造业岗位。

But they're not being lost for the reasons you might think.

但流失的原因并不是 大家所想象的那样。

Mike Johnson in Toledo, Ohio

俄亥俄州托莱多市的麦克·约翰逊，

didn't lose his jobs at the factory

他的工作并不是被墨西哥蒙特雷的

to Miguel Sanchez in Monterrey, Mexico.

米格尔·桑切斯抢走的。

No.

不是这样的。

Mike lost his job to a machine.

麦克的工作是被机器抢走了。

87 percent of lost manufacturing jobs

制造业岗位的流失中，

have been eliminated because we've made improvements

有87%是因为我们通过自动化改造

in our own productivity through automation.

提高了生产率。

So that means that one out of 10 lost manufacturing jobs

这就意味着，只有十分之一的 制造业岗位流失

was due to offshoring.

跟生产转移到国外有关。

Now, this is not just a US phenomenon.

这种现象不仅仅发生在美国。

No.

不是的。

In fact, automation is spreading to every production line

自动化正在蔓延到世界上每一个国家，

in every country around the world.

每一条生产线上。

But look, I get it:

但我承认，表面上看，

if you just lost your job

如果你刚刚失业，

and then you read in the newspaper

紧接着你在报纸上看到

that your old company just struck up a deal with China,

你的老东家跟中国刚刚签了一笔订单，

it's easy to think you were just replaced

你就很容易联想到 自己在一对一交易中

in a one-for-one deal.

被替代掉了。

When I hear stories like this, I think that what people picture

每当我听到这样的故事，我就会想，

is that trade happens between only two countries.

人们往往认为贸易 只发生在两个国家之间。

Manufacturers in one country

一个国家的生产商

produce products and they export them

生产产品，然后出口到

to consumers in other countries,

其他国家的消费者手中，

and it feels like the manufacturing countries win

看起来感觉生产国赚了，

and the importing countries lose.

而进口国亏了。

Well, reality's a little bit different.

实际情况其实有所不同。

I'm a supply chain professional,

我是一名供应链专家，

and I live and work in Mexico.

我在墨西哥生活和工作。

And I work in the middle

我的工作属于

of a highly connected network of manufacturers

一个紧密联系的制造商网络，

all collaborating from around the world

它们来自世界各地，互相协作，

to produce many of the products we use today.

共同生产许多我们日常所需的产品。

What I see

我在墨西哥城

from my front-row seat in Mexico City

获得的第一手见闻

actually looks more like this.

更符合下面这种情况。

And this is a more accurate depiction of what trade really looks like.

这是对于真实的贸易更为精确的描述。

I've had the pleasure of being able to see

我有幸能看到

how many different products are manufactured,

各种各样的产品是如何生产出来的，

from golf clubs to laptop computers

从高尔夫球杆到笔记本电脑，

to internet servers, automobiles

网络服务器，汽车，

and even airplanes.

甚至飞机。

And believe me, none of it happens in a straight line.

相信我，没有哪一种产品 来自刚刚那条两国之间的直线。

Let me give you an example.

我来举个例子。

A few months ago, I was touring the manufacturing plant

几个月前，我参观了位于 墨西哥克雷塔罗州的

of a multinational aerospace company

一家跨国航空公司的

in Querétaro, Mexico,

制造厂。

and the VP of logistics points out a completed tail assembly.

负责物流的副总裁 给我们看了一个组装完毕的机尾。

It turns out the tail assemblies are assembled from panels

这个组装完毕的机尾，所用的金属板

that are manufactured in France,

是在法国生产，

and they're assembled in Mexico

在墨西哥组装，

using components imported from the US.

使用的零件进口自美国。

When those tail assemblies are done,

当这些机尾组装完毕后，

they're exported via truck to Canada

会通过卡车运输出口到加拿大，

to their primary assembly plant

那里有他们的主装配工厂，

where they come together

成千上万的其他零件

with thousands of other parts,

在那里被组装到一起，

like the wings and the seats

像机翼，座位，

and the little shades over the little windows,

窗户上的遮光板，

all coming in to become a part of a new airplane.

都汇集于此，成为 一架新飞机的一部分。

Think about it.

想象一下，

These new airplanes,

这些新飞机，

before they even take their first flight,

在它们首飞之前，

they have more stamps in their passports

护照上盖的章

than Angelina Jolie.

已经比安吉丽娜·朱莉的还要多。

Now, this approach to processing goes on all around the world

这样的情况在世界各地越来越多，

to manufacture many of the products

生产我们日常所需的

we use every day,

许多产品，

from skin cream to airplanes.

从润肤霜到飞机。

When you go home tonight, take a look in your house.

今晚你们回家后，四处看看。

You might be surprised to find a label that looks like this one:

你可能会惊奇地找到 一个这样的标签：

"Manufactured in the USA from US and foreign parts."

“美国生产，零件来自 美国和其他国家。”

Economist Michael Porter

经济学家麦克·波特

described what's going on here best.

对此有着最为精辟的描述。

Many decades ago, he said that it's most beneficial for a country

在几十年前，他就指出， 对一个国家而言最有利的做法，

to focus on producing the products it can produce most efficiently

就是专注于生产 自己生产率最高的产品，

and trading for the rest.

然后通过贸易来获得其他产品。

So what he's talking about here is shared production,

他所说的就是协同生产，

and efficiency is the name of the game.

而效率是其中最关键的一点。

You've probably seen an example of this

大家很可能见过这样的例子，

at home or at work.

无论在家还是在工作中。

Let's take a look at an example.

让我们来看一个例子。

Think about how your house was built

想想你们家房子是怎么盖起来的

or your kitchen renovated.

或者厨房是怎么翻新的。

Typically, there's a general contractor

一般来说，会有一个总承包商

who is responsible for coordinating the efforts

他会负责协调

of all the different contractors:

不同承包商的工作：

an architect to draw the plans,

设计师绘制图纸，

an earth-moving company to dig the foundation,

基建公司挖好地基，

a plumber, a carpenter and so on.

还有水管工、木匠等等。

So why doesn't the general contractor

那为什么这个总承包商

pick just one company

不会只选择一家公司

to do all the work,

来完成所有的工作呢，

like, say, the architect?

比如说，只找设计师？

Because this is silly.

因为这么做很傻。

The general contractor selects experts

总承包商会选择专业人士，

because it takes years

因为学习和专精

to learn and master

盖房子和翻新厨房的

how to do each of the tasks it takes to build a house or renovate a kitchen,

某一个领域都需要花费数年的时间，

some of them requiring special training.

有些甚至需要专业的训练。

Think about it:

试想一下，

Would you want your architect to install your toilet?

你会愿意让设计师来帮你安装马桶吗？

Of course not.

当然不会。

So let's apply this process to the corporate world.

将这一过程引申到 企业的领域也是一样。

Companies today focus on manufacturing

当今企业都专注于生产

what they produce best and most efficiently,

他们质量最高、效率最高的产品，

and they trade for everything else.

然后通过贸易获得其他产品。

So this means they rely

这就意味着企业都高度依赖

on a global, interconnected, interdependent network of manufacturers

一个全球化的、紧密联系的、 相互依赖的制造商网络

to produce these products.

来生产产品。

In fact, that network is so interconnected

这个网络的联系是如此紧密，

it's almost impossible

几乎不太可能

to dismantle and produce products in just one country.

将其拆开，在一个国家 生产所有的产品。

Let's take a look at the interconnected web

我们来回顾一下刚刚看到的

we saw a few moments ago,

紧密联系的网络，

and let's focus on just one strand

我们只看其中一条线，

between the US and Mexico.

美国和墨西哥之间的那一条。

The Wilson Institute says that shared production represents

威尔逊学院的数据显示， 美国和墨西哥的

40 percent of the half a trillion dollars in trade between the US and Mexico.

贸易额为5000亿美元， 其中40%是协同生产。

That's about 200 billion dollars,

差不多是2000亿美元，

or the same as the GDP for Portugal.

相当于葡萄牙全国的GDP。

So let's just imagine

假设一下，

that the US decides to impose

如果美国决定

a 20 percent border tax on all imports from Mexico.

对所有进口自墨西哥的产品 征20%的国境税。

OK, fine.

没问题。

But do you think Mexico is just going to stand by and let that happen?

但是你们觉得墨西哥会欣然接受吗？

No. No way.

不可能的。

So in retaliation, they impose a similar tax

作为回应，他们也会征收相似的税率，

on all goods being imported from the US,

针对所有进口自美国的产品，

and a little game of tit-for-tat ensues,

就这样你来我往，

and 20 percent -- just imagine that 20 percent duties

想象一下这20%的税

are added to every good, product, product component

被加到所有的货物，产品及其部件，

crossing back and forth across the border,

只要过境就会被征收，

and you could be looking at more than a 40 percent increase in duties,

这样一来税率的增加就会大于40%，

or 80 billion dollars.

或者说800亿美元。

Now, don't kid yourself,

不要天真了，

these costs are going to be passed along

这些费用的增加一定会被摊到

to you and to me.

你我身上。

Now, let's think about what impact that might have on some of the products,

我们来看一下这会对商品 产生什么样的影响，

or the prices of the products, that we buy every day.

或者说对我们日常用品的价格 会产生什么影响。

So if a 30 percent increase in duties were actually passed along,

如果税率增加30%，

we would be looking at some pretty important increases in prices.

我们会看到明显的价格上涨。

A Lincoln MKZ would go from 37,000 dollars to 48,000.

一辆林肯MKZ会从 37000美元上涨到48000美元。

And the price of a Sharp 60-inch HDTV

一台60寸的夏普高清电视的价格

would go from 898 dollars to 1,167 dollars.

会从898美元上涨到1167美元。

And the price of a 16-ounce jar of CVS skin moisturizer

一罐454克的CVS润肤霜价格

would go from 13 dollars to 17 dollars.

会从13美元上涨到17美元。

Now, remember, this is only looking at one strand of the production chain

提醒一下，这还仅仅只是 美国和墨西哥之间，

between the US and Mexico,

只是产品网络中的一条线，

so multiply this out across all of the strands.

如果把所有的线都叠加起来。

The impact could be considerable.

产生的影响就会相当大了。

Now, just think about this:

试想一下，

even if we were able to dismantle this network

即使我们能够将整个网络分解，

and produce products in just one country,

在一个国家生产所有的产品，

which by the way is easier said than done,

当然，这操作起来很难，

we would still only be saving or protecting

我们也仅仅能够保住

one out of 10 lost manufacturing jobs.

10个制造业岗位中的1个。

That's right, because remember,

没错，因为请记住，

most of those jobs, 87 percent,

大部分的工作岗位，高达87%，

were lost due to improvements in our own productivity.

是因为我们生产率的提高而流失。

And unfortunately, those jobs, they're gone for good.

而且遗憾的是， 这些工作岗位再也找不回来了。

So the real question is,

现在问题来了，

does it make sense for us to drive up prices

我们让价格上涨，

to the point where many of us can't afford the basic goods we use every day

直到大部分人都买不起基本生活用品， 而目的仅仅为了保住一个工作岗位，

for the purpose of saving a job

而这个工作岗位在几年后

that might be eliminated in a couple of years anyway?

又肯定会失去， 那么这件事到底有没有意义？

The reality is that shared production

现实就是，协同生产

allows us to manufacture higher quality products

可以让我们以很低的成本

at lower costs.

生产高质量的产品。

It's that simple.

就这么简单。

It allows us to get more

这样可以让我们

out of the limited resources and expertise we have

充分利用有限的资源和专业技能

and at the same time benefit from lower prices.

同时通过较低的价格获利。

It's really important to remember

对于协同生产而言，

that for shared production to be effective,

很重要的一点就是，

it relies on efficient cross-border movement of raw materials,

它依赖于对原料、零件和制成品

components and finished products.

高效的跨境运输。

So remember this:

请大家记住，

the next time you're hearing somebody try to sell you on the idea

下次你们要是再遇到有人宣扬

that protectionism is a good deal,

贸易保护主义是一件好事，

it's just not.

千万别再被忽悠了。

Thank you.

谢谢大家。

(Applause)

（掌声）