The real reason manufacturing jobs are disappearing | Augie Picado

譯者: Lilian Chiu 審譯者: 易帆 余

When someone mentions Cuba,

當有人提到古巴，

what do you think about?

你會想到什麼？

Classic, classic cars?

經典，經典的車子？

Perhaps good cigars?

或是高檔雪茄？

Maybe you think of a famous baseball player.

也許你想到的是知名的棒球員。

What about when somebody mentions North Korea?

那如果有人提到北韓呢？

You think about those missile tests,

你會想到的是那些飛彈測試，

maybe their notorious leader

也許是那位惡名昭彰的領導者，

or his good friend, Dennis Rodman.

或是他的好朋友，丹尼斯羅德曼。

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

One thing that likely doesn't come to mind

有一樣東西通常不會被想到，

is a vision of a country,

就是一個國家的遠景，

an open economy,

一個開放的經濟體，

whose citizens have access to a wide range of affordable consumer products.

如何讓他的人民取得各種 他們可付擔得起的消費產品。

I'm not here to argue how these countries got to where they are today.

我並不是來這裡爭論這些國家 是如何走到今天這一步的。

I simply want to use them as an example of countries and citizens

我只是想要用它們當作例子，

來說明國家及人民 會因為限制進口政策

who have been affected, negatively affected,

by a trade policy that restricts imports

以及保護本土產業主義

and protects local industries.

而造成負面影響。

Recently we've heard a number of countries

最近，我們聽到有不少國家

talk about restricting imports

在談論要限制進口，

and protecting their local, domestic industries.

藉以保護它們的本土產業。

Now, this may sound fine in a sound bite,

乍聽之下，這想法聽起來沒問題，

but what it really is is protectionism.

但它其實只是一種保護主義。

We heard a lot about this during the 2016 presidential election.

在 2016 年的總統大選時， 我們常聽到這個議題。

We heard about it during the Brexit debates

在英國脫歐的辯論中 我們也常聽到它，

and most recently during the French elections.

最近，在法國選舉中也會聽到。

In fact, it's been a really important topic

事實上，它一直是個全世界

being talked about around the world,

都在談論的重要主題，

and many aspiring political leaders

且許多有抱負的政治領袖

are running on platforms positioning protectionism as a good thing.

不斷地在演說中說明 保護主義是件好事。

Now, I could see why they think protectionism is good,

我可以了解為何他們認為 保護主義是好的，

because sometimes it seems like trade is unfair.

因為，有時候，貿易看起來 似乎是不公平的。

Some have blamed trade

有些人會怪罪貿易，

for some of the problems we've been having here at home in the US.

我們在自家美國所發生的 一些問題都是貿易的錯。

For years we've been hearing

多年來，我們都不斷聽到

about the loss of high-paying US manufacturing jobs.

高薪的美國製造業工作在減少。

Many think that manufacturing is declining in the US

許多人認為，在美國， 製造業在走下坡，

because companies are moving their operations offshore

是因為公司把它們的 營運移到海外去，

to markets with lower-cost labor

移到低成本勞工的市場，

like China, Mexico and Vietnam.

比如中國、墨西哥、越南。

They also think trade agreements sometimes are unfair,

他們也認為，貿易協定 有時候是不公平的，

like NAFTA

如北美自由貿易協定、

and the Trans-Pacific Partnership,

以及跨太平洋夥伴關係，

because these trade agreements allow companies

因為這些貿易協定讓公司

to reimport those cheaply produced goods back into the US

可以將那些便宜製造的商品 重新進口回來美國，

and other countries from where the jobs were taken.

以及其它工作機會被搶走的國家。

So it kind of feels like the exporters win

所以這種感覺有點像是，出口者贏，

and the importers lose.

進口者輸。

Now, the reality is

現實則是，

output in the manufacturing sector in the US

在美國，製造業的出口

is actually growing,

其實在成長，

but we are losing jobs.

但我們的工作在減少。

We're losing lots of them.

我們的工作減少很多。

In fact, from 2000 to 2010,

事實上，從 2000 年到 2010 年，

5.7 million manufacturing jobs were lost.

就減少了 570 萬個製造業工作。

But they're not being lost for the reasons you might think.

但這些工作之所以減少的原因

和你想的不同。

Mike Johnson in Toledo, Ohio

俄亥俄州托利多市的麥克強生，

didn't lose his jobs at the factory

他丟掉工作的原因並不是輸給

to Miguel Sanchez in Monterrey, Mexico.

墨西哥蒙特雷市的米戈山切斯。

No.

不是。

Mike lost his job to a machine.

麥克丟掉工作的原因， 是因為一台機器。

87 percent of lost manufacturing jobs

87% 的製造業工作機會消失，

have been eliminated because we've made improvements

是因為我們用自動化

in our own productivity through automation.

改善了我們自己的生產力而造成的。

So that means that one out of 10 lost manufacturing jobs

那意味著，每十個 被縮減掉的製造業工作中，

was due to offshoring.

只有一個是因為外移造成的。

Now, this is not just a US phenomenon.

這不只是在美國才有的現象。

No.

不是。

In fact, automation is spreading to every production line

事實上，自動化遍及了

全世界每一個國家的每一條生產線。

in every country around the world.

But look, I get it:

但，我懂：

if you just lost your job

如果你剛丟了你的工作，

and then you read in the newspaper

接著你在報紙上讀到

that your old company just struck up a deal with China,

你原本的公司剛剛和中國簽了協議，

it's easy to think you were just replaced

很容易就會聯想到，

你是被一個換一個的 協議所取代掉的。

in a one-for-one deal.

When I hear stories like this, I think that what people picture

當我聽到像這樣的故事， 我認為人們所想像的是，

is that trade happens between only two countries.

貿易只發生在兩個國家之間。

Manufacturers in one country

製造商在一個國家

produce products and they export them

生產產品然後出口銷售給

to consumers in other countries,

另一個國家的消費者，

and it feels like the manufacturing countries win

感覺就像是製造國贏，

and the importing countries lose.

而進口國輸。

Well, reality's a little bit different.

嗯，現實有點不同。

I'm a supply chain professional,

我是供應鏈專家，

and I live and work in Mexico.

我住在墨西哥，也在那裡工作。

And I work in the middle

而我在一個

of a highly connected network of manufacturers

高度連結的製造商網路中工作，

all collaborating from around the world

這些世界各地的製造商彼此合作，

to produce many of the products we use today.

來生產出許多現今我們使用的產品。

What I see

我在墨西哥市

from my front-row seat in Mexico City

最接近最清楚的位置所看到的，

actually looks more like this.

其實比較像是這樣。

And this is a more accurate depiction of what trade really looks like.

這個對貿易的描繪，算是 較精確也較接近真實情況。

I've had the pleasure of being able to see

我有榮幸能夠看到

how many different products are manufactured,

許多不同的產品是如何製造出來的，

from golf clubs to laptop computers

從高爾夫球桿到筆記型電腦，

to internet servers, automobiles

到網際網路服務、汽車、

and even airplanes.

甚至飛機。

And believe me, none of it happens in a straight line.

相信我，這些發生過程 都不是直線的。

Let me give you an example.

讓我舉個例子。

A few months ago, I was touring the manufacturing plant

幾個月前，我去墨西哥

of a multinational aerospace company

巡視一間跨國航太公司

in Querétaro, Mexico,

位在克雷塔羅的製造工廠，

and the VP of logistics points out a completed tail assembly.

物流管理副總比了一個 組裝完成的尾翼。

It turns out the tail assemblies are assembled from panels

結果，那尾翼是用

法國製造的鑲板來組裝的，

that are manufactured in France,

and they're assembled in Mexico

而組裝是在墨西哥進行，

using components imported from the US.

使用的元件從美國進口。

When those tail assemblies are done,

尾翼的組裝完成後，

they're exported via truck to Canada

會被卡車載到加拿大，

to their primary assembly plant

到它們的主要組裝工廠，

where they come together

在那間工廠裡，

with thousands of other parts,

它們和其它數千個零件 會被組裝起來，

like the wings and the seats

比如機翼和座椅，

and the little shades over the little windows,

和小窗戶上面的小遮光板，

all coming in to become a part of a new airplane.

全都組合起來， 成為新飛機的一部份。

Think about it.

想想看。

These new airplanes,

這些新飛機，

before they even take their first flight,

在第一次飛行之前，

they have more stamps in their passports

它們護照上的戳章數目就已經勝過

than Angelina Jolie.

安潔莉娜裘莉了。

Now, this approach to processing goes on all around the world

全世界都在用這個方式運轉，

to manufacture many of the products

來製造出我們每天

we use every day,

使用的日常用品，

from skin cream to airplanes.

從護膚乳液到飛機。

When you go home tonight, take a look in your house.

你晚上回家時，看看你的房子，

You might be surprised to find a label that looks like this one:

你可能會很驚訝地發現 像這樣子的標籤：

"Manufactured in the USA from US and foreign parts."

「美國製造；零件：美國及外國。」

Economist Michael Porter

經濟學家麥可波特

described what's going on here best.

對這個情況的描述是最貼切的。

Many decades ago, he said that it's most beneficial for a country

數十年前，他說，

對一個國家來說，最有益的做法是

to focus on producing the products it can produce most efficiently

著重生產該國最有生產效能的產品，

and trading for the rest.

其餘的則用貿易取得。

So what he's talking about here is shared production,

所以，他在談的就是共享生產，

and efficiency is the name of the game.

而這個遊戲的名字就叫做效率。

You've probably seen an example of this

你可能在家或在工作時有看過

at home or at work.

相關的例子。

Let's take a look at an example.

我們先來看個例子。

Think about how your house was built

想想看你的房子是怎麼建造的、

or your kitchen renovated.

或廚房是怎麼翻修的。

Typically, there's a general contractor

通常，會有一個總包商，

who is responsible for coordinating the efforts

它的責任是協調所有各個

of all the different contractors:

包商之間的工作：

an architect to draw the plans,

一名建築師來畫設計圖、

an earth-moving company to dig the foundation,

一家運土公司來挖地基、

a plumber, a carpenter and so on.

一個水電工、一個木匠，等等。

So why doesn't the general contractor

為什麼總包商不要

pick just one company

只選一家公司，

to do all the work,

比如選建築師，

like, say, the architect?

來做所有工作？

Because this is silly.

因為這樣很蠢。

The general contractor selects experts

總包商會選專家，

because it takes years

因為需要花上數年時間，

to learn and master

才能學會和精通

how to do each of the tasks it takes to build a house or renovate a kitchen,

建造一間房子或翻修一間廚房 所需要的工作任務，

some of them requiring special training.

有些工作任務還需要特別訓練。

Think about it:

想想看：

Would you want your architect to install your toilet?

你會想要你的建築師 來安裝你的馬桶嗎？

Of course not.

當然不想。

So let's apply this process to the corporate world.

所以，我們把這個過程 應用到企業的世界。

Companies today focus on manufacturing

現今的公司會著重在製造

what they produce best and most efficiently,

它們最擅長、且能 最有效率生產的東西，

and they trade for everything else.

其他的東西就靠貿易來取得。

So this means they rely

這意味著，它們仰賴

on a global, interconnected, interdependent network of manufacturers

一個互相連結、互存共生的 全球製造商網路

to produce these products.

來生產這些產品。

In fact, that network is so interconnected

事實上，那個網路的相互連結性

it's almost impossible

緊密到幾乎不可能

to dismantle and produce products in just one country.

把它拆開，然後只在 一個國家生產產品。

Let's take a look at the interconnected web

我們來看看剛才的

we saw a few moments ago,

相互連結網路圖，

and let's focus on just one strand

我們把焦點放在美國和墨西哥

between the US and Mexico.

之間的這個部份就好。

The Wilson Institute says that shared production represents

威爾遜機構說，共享生產就佔了

40 percent of the half a trillion dollars in trade between the US and Mexico.

美國和墨西哥間共 五千億美元之貿易的 40%。

That's about 200 billion dollars,

那就是大約兩千億美元，

or the same as the GDP for Portugal.

等同於葡萄牙的國內生產總值。

So let's just imagine

我們來想像一下，

that the US decides to impose

如果美國決定要針對所有來自

a 20 percent border tax on all imports from Mexico.

墨西哥的進口， 施加 20% 的邊境稅。

OK, fine.

好，沒問題。

But do you think Mexico is just going to stand by and let that happen?

但，你認為墨西哥會 袖手旁觀讓它發生嗎？

No. No way.

不會，不可能。

So in retaliation, they impose a similar tax

為了報復，他們會針對從美國

on all goods being imported from the US,

進口的所有商品課徵類似的稅，

and a little game of tit-for-tat ensues,

接著就是一報還一報的小遊戲，

and 20 percent -- just imagine that 20 percent duties

20% ──想像一下，20% 的關稅

are added to every good, product, product component

被加到從邊境進進出出的

crossing back and forth across the border,

每一樣商品、產品、產品元件上，

and you could be looking at more than a 40 percent increase in duties,

可能會因此增加超過 40% 的關稅，

or 80 billion dollars.

即八百億美元。

Now, don't kid yourself,

不要自欺欺人了，

these costs are going to be passed along

這些成本都會轉嫁到

to you and to me.

你我身上。

Now, let's think about what impact that might have on some of the products,

現在，再來想想我們 每天購買的那些產品、

or the prices of the products, that we buy every day.

或其價格，會受到什麼影響。

So if a 30 percent increase in duties were actually passed along,

如果實際上轉嫁 30% 的增加關稅 ，

we would be looking at some pretty important increases in prices.

我們將會看到價格被調升許多。

A Lincoln MKZ would go from 37,000 dollars to 48,000.

林肯汽車 MKZ 車款的價格 會從 $37,000 提升到 $48,000。

And the price of a Sharp 60-inch HDTV

夏普的高畫質電視價格

would go from 898 dollars to 1,167 dollars.

會從 $898 提升到 $1,167。

And the price of a 16-ounce jar of CVS skin moisturizer

而 16 盎司的 CVS 藥局 罐裝護膚液價格

would go from 13 dollars to 17 dollars.

會從 $13 提升到 $17。

Now, remember, this is only looking at one strand of the production chain

別忘了，這只是美國和墨西哥 之間的一條生產鏈而已，

between the US and Mexico,

so multiply this out across all of the strands.

如果把其它部份都乘進來，

The impact could be considerable.

影響會非常巨大。

Now, just think about this:

想想這一點：

even if we were able to dismantle this network

即使我們有辦法拆解這個網路，

and produce products in just one country,

只在一個國家中生產產品，

which by the way is easier said than done,

我只能說，說的比做的容易，

we would still only be saving or protecting

我們還是只能拯救或是保護

one out of 10 lost manufacturing jobs.

十個被縮減的製造業工作中的一個。

That's right, because remember,

沒錯，別忘了，

most of those jobs, 87 percent,

因為大部份這些工作，有 87%，

were lost due to improvements in our own productivity.

是因為我們自己生產力的 改善而消失掉的。

And unfortunately, those jobs, they're gone for good.

不幸的是，那些工作 永遠不會再回來了。

So the real question is,

所以，真正的問題是，

does it make sense for us to drive up prices

這麼做合理嗎？ 把日用品價格提高到

to the point where many of us can't afford the basic goods we use every day

許多人都無法負擔的程度，

for the purpose of saving a job

只是為了拯救一些工作，

that might be eliminated in a couple of years anyway?

且這些工作在幾年後 終究還是會消失？

The reality is that shared production

現實是，共享生產

allows us to manufacture higher quality products

讓我們能用較低的成本來製造出

at lower costs.

更高品質的產品。

It's that simple.

就這麼簡單。

It allows us to get more

它讓我們能從有限的資源和專長中，

out of the limited resources and expertise we have

盡可能得到更多，

and at the same time benefit from lower prices.

同時我們還享有價格較低的好處。

It's really important to remember

很重要的是要記住，

that for shared production to be effective,

若要讓共享生產能有效地發揮作用，

it relies on efficient cross-border movement of raw materials,

就需要讓原料、元件、成品都能

components and finished products.

有效率地通過邊境。

So remember this:

所以，切記這一點：

the next time you're hearing somebody try to sell you on the idea

下次，你聽到有人要說服你說

that protectionism is a good deal,

保護主義是個很好的辦法時，

it's just not.

你要知道並非如此。

Thank you.

謝謝。

(Applause)

（掌聲）