The real reason manufacturing jobs are disappearing | Augie Picado

Prevoditelj: Sanda L Recezent: Ivan Stamenković

When someone mentions Cuba,

Kada netko spomene Kubu,

what do you think about?

na što pomislite?

Classic, classic cars?

Na klasične automobile.

Perhaps good cigars?

Možda na dobre cigare?

Maybe you think of a famous baseball player.

Možda pomislite na poznatog igrača bejzbola.

What about when somebody mentions North Korea?

A što kada netko spomene Sjevernu Koreju?

You think about those missile tests,

Pomislite na ona raketna testiranja,

maybe their notorious leader

možda na njihovog ozloglašenog vođu,

or his good friend, Dennis Rodman.

ili na njegovog prijatelja, Dennisa Rodmana.

(Laughter)

(Smijeh)

One thing that likely doesn't come to mind

Ono što vjerojatno ne pomislite

is a vision of a country,

je vizija zemlje,

an open economy,

otvorene ekonomije,

whose citizens have access to a wide range of affordable consumer products.

čiji građani imaju pristup širokoj ponudi proizvoda po prihvatljivim cijenama.

I'm not here to argue how these countries got to where they are today.

Nisam ovdje kako bih pričao o tome kako su te zemlje dospjele tu gdje su danas.

I simply want to use them as an example of countries and citizens

Samo ih želim uzeti kao primjer zemalja i njihovih građana,

who have been affected, negatively affected,

koji su bili negativno pogođeni

by a trade policy that restricts imports

tržišnom politikom koja ograničava uvoz

and protects local industries.

i štiti lokalne industrije.

Recently we've heard a number of countries

Nedavno smo čuli kako neke države

talk about restricting imports

govore o ograničavanju uvoza

and protecting their local, domestic industries.

i zaštiti njihovih lokalnih, domaćih industrija.

Now, this may sound fine in a sound bite,

To se možda naizgled čini u redu,

but what it really is is protectionism.

no, zapravo se radi o protekcionizmu.

We heard a lot about this during the 2016 presidential election.

Mnogo smo čuli o tome tijekom predsjedničkih izbora 2016.

We heard about it during the Brexit debates

Slušali smo o tome i za vrijeme rasprava o Brexit-u,

and most recently during the French elections.

a sasvim nedavno i za vrijeme izbora u Francuskoj.

In fact, it's been a really important topic

Zapravo, bila je to vrlo važna tema

being talked about around the world,

o kojoj se govorilo diljem svijeta

and many aspiring political leaders

i mnogi ambiciozni politički lideri

are running on platforms positioning protectionism as a good thing.

u svoj program uključuju protekcionizam kao pozitivnu stvar.

Now, I could see why they think protectionism is good,

Mogu razumjeti zašto misle da je protekcionizam dobar,

because sometimes it seems like trade is unfair.

jer se ponekad trgovina zaista čini nepravednom.

Some have blamed trade

Neki su okrivili trgovinu

for some of the problems we've been having here at home in the US.

za neke probleme koje smo imali ovdje u SAD-u.

For years we've been hearing

Godinama smo slušali

about the loss of high-paying US manufacturing jobs.

o gubitku dobro plaćenih poslova u američkoj proizvodnji.

Many think that manufacturing is declining in the US

Mnogi misle da se proizvodnja u SAD-u smanjuje,

because companies are moving their operations offshore

jer kompanije svoje aktivnosti premještaju u druge zemlje,

to markets with lower-cost labor

na tržišta koja imaju nižu cijenu rada,

like China, Mexico and Vietnam.

poput Kine, Meksika i Vijetnama.

They also think trade agreements sometimes are unfair,

Oni također misle da su trgovački sporazumi ponekad nepravedni,

like NAFTA

poput NAFTA-e

and the Trans-Pacific Partnership,

i Trans-pacifičkog sporazuma,

because these trade agreements allow companies

jer ti trgovački sporazumi omogućuju kompanijama

to reimport those cheaply produced goods back into the US

ponovni uvoz tih jeftino proizvedenih dobara natrag u SAD

and other countries from where the jobs were taken.

i u druge zemlje kojima su ta radna mjesta oduzeta.

So it kind of feels like the exporters win

Tako se čini kao da izvoznici pobjeđuju,

and the importers lose.

a uvoznici gube.

Now, the reality is

U stvarnosti,

output in the manufacturing sector in the US

proizvodni sektor SAD-a

is actually growing,

zapravo raste,

but we are losing jobs.

ali i gubimo radna mjesta.

We're losing lots of them.

Mnogo radnih mjesta.

In fact, from 2000 to 2010,

Zapravo, u razdoblju 2000 -2010.

5.7 million manufacturing jobs were lost.

izgubljeno je 5,7 milijuna radnih mjesta u proizvodnji.

But they're not being lost for the reasons you might think.

No, ona nisu izgubljena zbog razloga na koje možda mislite.

Mike Johnson in Toledo, Ohio

Mike Johnson iz Toleda, država Ohio,

didn't lose his jobs at the factory

nije izgubio svoj posao u tvornici

to Miguel Sanchez in Monterrey, Mexico.

zbog Miguela Sancheza u Monterreyu, u Meksiku.

No.

Ne.

Mike lost his job to a machine.

Mike je izgubio svoje radno mjesto zbog stroja.

87 percent of lost manufacturing jobs

87% izgubljenih radnih mjesta u proizvodnji

have been eliminated because we've made improvements

ukinuto je jer smo unaprijedili

in our own productivity through automation.

vlastitu produktivnost pomoću automatizacije.

So that means that one out of 10 lost manufacturing jobs

To znači da je jedno od deset izgubljenih radnih mjesta u proizvodnji

was due to offshoring.

izgubljeno zbog premještanja u druge zemlje.

Now, this is not just a US phenomenon.

Ovo nije slučaj samo u SAD-u.

No.

Ne.

In fact, automation is spreading to every production line

Zapravo, automatizacija se širi na sve proizvodne linije,

in every country around the world.

po svim zemljama svijeta.

But look, I get it:

No, razumijem,

if you just lost your job

ako ste upravo izgubili posao,

and then you read in the newspaper

a onda u novinama pročitate

da je vaša bivša kompanija upravo sklopila dogovor s Kinom,

that your old company just struck up a deal with China,

it's easy to think you were just replaced

lako je pomisliti da ste jednostavno zamijenjeni

in a one-for-one deal.

nekim drugim.

When I hear stories like this, I think that what people picture

Kada čujem ovakve priče, pomislim da ljudi imaju predodžbu

is that trade happens between only two countries.

da se trgovina odvija između samo dvije zemlje.

Manufacturers in one country

Proizvođači u jednoj zemlji

produce products and they export them

stvaraju proizvode i izvoze ih

to consumers in other countries,

prema potrošačima u drugim zemljama,

and it feels like the manufacturing countries win

pa izgleda kao da su zemlje proizvođača na dobitku,

and the importing countries lose.

a zemlje uvoznika na gubitku.

Well, reality's a little bit different.

No, stvarnost je nešto drugačija.

I'm a supply chain professional,

Moj posao je vezan za nabavni lanac,

and I live and work in Mexico.

a živim i radim u Meksiku.

And I work in the middle

Radim usred

of a highly connected network of manufacturers

vrlo povezane mreže proizvođača,

all collaborating from around the world

koji surađuju sa svih strana svijeta,

to produce many of the products we use today.

kako bi proizveli mnogo toga što danas koristimo.

What I see

Ono što vidim

from my front-row seat in Mexico City

iz prve ruke u Mexico Cityju,

actually looks more like this.

zapravo izgleda više poput ovog.

And this is a more accurate depiction of what trade really looks like.

A ovo je točniji prikaz onoga kako trgovina zaista izgleda.

I've had the pleasure of being able to see

Imao sam zadovoljstvo vidjeti

how many different products are manufactured,

kako nastaju razni proizvodi,

from golf clubs to laptop computers

od palica za golf do laptopa,

to internet servers, automobiles

internet servera, automobila,

and even airplanes.

čak i aviona.

And believe me, none of it happens in a straight line.

I vjerujete mi, ništa od toga ne dešava se pravocrtno.

Let me give you an example.

Dat ću vam primjer.

A few months ago, I was touring the manufacturing plant

Prije par mjeseci obilazio sam proizvodni pogon

of a multinational aerospace company

multinacionalne zrakoplovne kompanije

in Querétaro, Mexico,

u Querétarou, u Meksiku,

and the VP of logistics points out a completed tail assembly.

i voditelj logistike pokazao je sklopljeni rep aviona.

It turns out the tail assemblies are assembled from panels

Ispada da se za to sklapanje koriste paneli

that are manufactured in France,

proizvedeni u Francuskoj,

and they're assembled in Mexico

sklopljeni u Meksiku,

using components imported from the US.

koristeći dijelove uvezene iz SAD-a.

When those tail assemblies are done,

Kada je sklapanje repa završeno,

they're exported via truck to Canada

sklopove kamionom izvoze u Kanadu,

to their primary assembly plant

do njihovog glavnog pogona za sklapanje,

where they come together

gdje se sastavljaju

with thousands of other parts,

s tisućama drugih dijelova,

like the wings and the seats

poput krila aviona i sjedala,

and the little shades over the little windows,

te malih zaslona na prozorima aviona,

all coming in to become a part of a new airplane.

svi postaju dio novog aviona.

Think about it.

Razmislite.

These new airplanes,

Ti novi avioni,

before they even take their first flight,

prije nego uopće krenu na svoj prvi let,

they have more stamps in their passports

imaju više pečata u svojim putovnicama

than Angelina Jolie.

od Angeline Jolie.

Now, this approach to processing goes on all around the world

Ovakav pristup procesu odvija se diljem svijeta,

to manufacture many of the products

kako bi se stvorili mnogi proizvodi

we use every day,

koje svakodnevno koristimo,

from skin cream to airplanes.

od kreme za kožu do aviona.

When you go home tonight, take a look in your house.

Kada večerak dođete kući, pogledajte malo oko sebe.

You might be surprised to find a label that looks like this one:

Mogli biste se iznenaditi i naći oznaku sličnu ovoj:

"Manufactured in the USA from US and foreign parts."

"Proizvedeno u SAD-u od dijelova iz SAD-a i inozemstva."

Economist Michael Porter

Ekonomist Michael Porter

described what's going on here best.

najbolje je opisao što se ovdje događa.

Many decades ago, he said that it's most beneficial for a country

Prije mnogo desetljeća, rekao je da je za državu najbolje

to focus on producing the products it can produce most efficiently

fokusirati se na stvaranje proizvoda koje može najučinkovitije proizvesti,

and trading for the rest.

a trgovati za sve ostalo.

So what he's talking about here is shared production,

On, zapravo, govori o dijeljenoj proizvodnji,

and efficiency is the name of the game.

gdje je ključna učinkovitost.

You've probably seen an example of this

Ovaj primjer ste vjerojatno vidjeli

at home or at work.

kod kuće ili na poslu.

Let's take a look at an example.

Pogledajmo primjer.

Think about how your house was built

Razmislite kako je izgrađena vaša kuća

or your kitchen renovated.

ili preuređena vaša kuhinja.

Typically, there's a general contractor

Najčešće, postoji voditelj projekta,

who is responsible for coordinating the efforts

odgovoran za koordiniranje radova

svih ostalih podizvođača:

of all the different contractors:

an architect to draw the plans,

arhitekte koji izrađuje skice,

an earth-moving company to dig the foundation,

tvrtke zadužene za postavljanje temelja,

a plumber, a carpenter and so on.

vodoinstalatera, stolara itd.

So why doesn't the general contractor

Zašto onda voditelj projekta

pick just one company

ne odabere samo jednu tvrtku

to do all the work,

da odradi cijeli posao,

like, say, the architect?

na primjer, arhitekta?

Because this is silly.

Jer je to smiješno.

The general contractor selects experts

Voditelj projekta odabire stručnjake

because it takes years

jer su potrebne godine

to learn and master

da se stekne i usavrši zanat

how to do each of the tasks it takes to build a house or renovate a kitchen,

kako odraditi svaki zadatak pri gradnji kuće ili renoviranju kuhinje,

some of them requiring special training.

neki od njih zahtijevaju posebnu obuku.

Think about it:

Razmislite:

Would you want your architect to install your toilet?

Biste li željeli da vam arhitekta postavi WC?

Of course not.

Naravno da ne biste.

So let's apply this process to the corporate world.

Primijenimo, stoga, ovaj proces na korporativni svijet.

Companies today focus on manufacturing

Kompanije se danas fokusiraju na proizvodnju onoga,

what they produce best and most efficiently,

što izrađuju najbolje i najučinkovitije,

and they trade for everything else.

a za sve ostalo trguju.

So this means they rely

To znači da se oslanjaju

on a global, interconnected, interdependent network of manufacturers

na globalnu, povezanu, neovisnu mrežu proizvođača,

to produce these products.

da bi proizveli te proizvode.

In fact, that network is so interconnected

Ta mreža je toliko međusobno povezana,

it's almost impossible

da je gotovo nemoguće

to dismantle and produce products in just one country.

rastaviti ili proizvesti nešto u samo jednoj zemlji.

Let's take a look at the interconnected web

Bacimo pogled na tu povezanu mrežu

we saw a few moments ago,

koju smo maloprije vidjeli

and let's focus on just one strand

i pogledajmo samo jednu stranu,

between the US and Mexico.

između SAD-a i Meksika.

The Wilson Institute says that shared production represents

Wilson Institute kaže da dijeljena proizvodnja predstavlja

40 percent of the half a trillion dollars in trade between the US and Mexico.

40% od pola trilijuna dolara vrijednosti trgovine između SAD-a i Meksika.

That's about 200 billion dollars,

To je oko 200 milijardi dolara,

or the same as the GDP for Portugal.

ili ukupni BDP Portugala.

So let's just imagine

Zato zamislimo samo

that the US decides to impose

da SAD odluči nametnuti

a 20 percent border tax on all imports from Mexico.

granični porez od 20% na sve uvezeno iz Meksika.

OK, fine.

U redu.

But do you think Mexico is just going to stand by and let that happen?

No, mislite li da će Meksiko samo stajati po strani i to dozvoliti?

No. No way.

Neće. Nema šanse.

So in retaliation, they impose a similar tax

Za osvetu, nametnut će sličan porez

on all goods being imported from the US,

na svu robu koja se uvozi iz SAD-a

and a little game of tit-for-tat ensues,

i onda slijedi igra međusobne osvete,

and 20 percent -- just imagine that 20 percent duties

a onih 20%, samo zamislite da se 20% carine

are added to every good, product, product component

doda na svu robu, sve proizvode, dijelove proizvoda

crossing back and forth across the border,

koji prelaze granicu u oba smjera,

and you could be looking at more than a 40 percent increase in duties,

i svjedočili biste povećanju carine za više od 40%,

or 80 billion dollars.

ili 80 milijardi dolara.

Now, don't kid yourself,

No, ne zavaravajte se,

these costs are going to be passed along

ti troškovi će biti prebačeni

to you and to me.

na vaša i moja leđa.

Now, let's think about what impact that might have on some of the products,

Promislimo sada kakav utjecaj bi to moglo imati na neke proizvode,

or the prices of the products, that we buy every day.

ili cijene proizvoda koje svakodnevno kupujemo.

So if a 30 percent increase in duties were actually passed along,

Ako se 30%-tno povećanje carine prebaci na druge,

we would be looking at some pretty important increases in prices.

uočili bismo neka prilično važna poskupljenja.

A Lincoln MKZ would go from 37,000 dollars to 48,000.

Automobil Lincoln MKZ poskupio bi s 37.000 na 48.000 dolara.

And the price of a Sharp 60-inch HDTV

A cijena 60'' Sharpovog HDTV-a

would go from 898 dollars to 1,167 dollars.

skočila bi s 898 na 1167 dolara.

And the price of a 16-ounce jar of CVS skin moisturizer

A cijena kutije hidratantne kreme

would go from 13 dollars to 17 dollars.

narasla bi s 13 na 17 dolara.

Now, remember, this is only looking at one strand of the production chain

Zapamtite, ovo se odnosi na jednu stranu proizvodnog lanca,

between the US and Mexico,

onu između SAD-a i Meksika,

so multiply this out across all of the strands.

a onda to pomnožite s brojem ostalih uključenih strana.

The impact could be considerable.

Mogao bi to biti znatan utjecaj.

Now, just think about this:

Samo razmislite o ovome:

even if we were able to dismantle this network

čak i da smo mogli razbiti tu mrežu

and produce products in just one country,

i proizvoditi u samo jednoj zemlji,

which by the way is easier said than done,

što je, zapravo, lakše reći nego postići,

we would still only be saving or protecting

i dalje bismo čuvali ili štitili

one out of 10 lost manufacturing jobs.

samo jedno od 10 ugašenih proizvodnih radnih mjesta.

That's right, because remember,

Tako je, jer, zapamtite,

most of those jobs, 87 percent,

većina tih poslova, njih 87%,

were lost due to improvements in our own productivity.

izgubljeno je zbog unaprijeđenja vlastite produktivnosti.

And unfortunately, those jobs, they're gone for good.

I nažalost, ta su radna mjesta zauvijek izgubljena.

So the real question is,

Stoga je pravo pitanje,

does it make sense for us to drive up prices

ima li smisla da podižemo cijene,

to the point where many of us can't afford the basic goods we use every day

gdje si mnogi od nas ne mogu priuštiti ni osnovno, što koriste svaki dan,

for the purpose of saving a job

samo da bi se sačuvala radna mjesta,

that might be eliminated in a couple of years anyway?

koja bi se i ovako mogla ukinuti za nekoliko godina?

The reality is that shared production

Stvarnost je da nam dijeljena proizvodnja

allows us to manufacture higher quality products

omogućuje stvaranje proizvoda više kvalitete,

at lower costs.

uz niže troškove.

It's that simple.

O tome se radi.

It allows us to get more

Omogućuje nam da dobijemo više

out of the limited resources and expertise we have

iz ograničenih izvora i stručnosti koju imamo,

and at the same time benefit from lower prices.

a da u isto vrijeme imamo koristi zbog nižih cijena.

It's really important to remember

Zaista je važno zapamtiti

that for shared production to be effective,

da se učinkovita dijeljena proizvodnja

it relies on efficient cross-border movement of raw materials,

oslanja na učinkovit prekogranični promet sirovina,

components and finished products.

dijelova i krajnjih proizvoda.

So remember this:

Stoga zapamtite:

the next time you're hearing somebody try to sell you on the idea

sljedeći puta kada vam netko pokušava prodati priču

that protectionism is a good deal,

da je protekcionizam dobra stvar,

it's just not.

jednostavno nije.

Thank you.

Hvala.

(Applause)

(Pljesak)