How to rob a bank (from the inside, that is) | William Black

147,044 views ・ 2014-05-12

TED


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翻译人员: Zachary Lin Zhao 校对人员: Wei Wu
00:12
So today's top chef class is in how to rob a bank,
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今天的“顶级大厨”寓教于食,揭秘怎么抢银行,
00:16
and it's clear that the general public needs guidance,
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显然,大众对这个外行。
00:20
because the average bank robbery nets
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因为一般的劫匪抢一次银行,
00:23
only 7,500 dollars.
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平均只能抢到区区7500刀,
00:26
Rank amateurs who know nothing
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这是完全不懂做假帐的
00:28
about how to cook the books.
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业余会计的水平。
00:30
The folks who know, of course,
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当然,懂行的专业人士
00:32
run our largest banks,
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全是大银行的头头们,
00:34
and in the last go-around,
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上次他们出手,
00:36
they cost us over 11 trillion dollars.
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我们损失11万亿刀。
00:41
That's what 11 trillion looks like.
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11万亿看起来是酱紫的。
00:43
That's how many zeros?
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数数多少个0?
00:45
And cost us over 10 million jobs as well.
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还让我们损失1000万个工作岗位。
00:48
So our task is to educate ourselves
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所以我们的当务之急是
00:51
so that we can understand
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好好学习,长长见识,搞清楚
00:52
why we have these recurrent,
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金融危机一再出现
00:54
intensifying financial crises,
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并且愈演愈烈的原因,
00:56
and how we can prevent them in the future.
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以及未来如何防范。
01:00
And the answer to that is
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答案就是
01:02
that we have to stop epidemics of control fraud.
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我们需要制止大面积的管理欺诈行为。
01:06
Control fraud is what happens
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何为管理欺诈?
01:08
when the people who control,
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管理人员,
01:10
typically a CEO,
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通常是CEO
01:12
a seemingly legitimate entity,
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在管理一个貌似合法的金融机构时,
01:14
use it as a weapon to defraud.
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把这个机构当成武器来使,搞诈骗。
01:17
And these are the weapons of mass destruction
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这些算是金融界的
01:20
in the financial world.
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大规模杀伤性武器。
01:22
They also follow in finance a particular strategy,
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在金融领域,他们还采取一种特定的策略,
01:27
because the weapon of choice in finance
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因为他们所使用的武器是会计(accounting),
01:30
is accounting,
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这是金融领域的不二之选。
01:31
and there is a recipe for accounting
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会计管理欺诈行为及其发生
01:35
control fraud, and how it occurs.
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都有固定的“套路”。
01:37
And we discovered this recipe
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我们发现这一点
01:39
in quite an odd way that I'll come back to in a moment.
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也是不期而然。我稍后再谈。
01:42
First ingredient in the recipe: grow like crazy;
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这一套路不可缺少的“原料”:首先是疯狂地膨胀扩张。
01:46
second, by making or buying really crappy loans,
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其次是放出或者购买“垃圾贷款”,
01:51
but loans that are made at a very high interest rate
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不过这种贷款的利率或者收益
01:54
or yield;
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非常之高。
01:56
three, while employing extreme leverage --
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第三,大肆利用金融杠杆,
01:58
that just means a lot of debt --
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也就是相对于资产而言不成比例
01:59
compared to your equity;
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的大量债务。
02:01
and four, while providing only trivial loss reserves
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第四,为应对必然发生的坏账
02:05
against the inevitable losses.
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提供少之又少的准备金。
02:07
If you follow those four simple steps,
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只要遵循这四个简单的步骤,
02:11
and any bank can follow them,
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任何银行都做得到,
02:13
then you are mathematically guaranteed
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就会确定无疑地出现以下
02:15
to have three things occur.
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三种情况。
02:18
The first thing is
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第一,银行的账面利润
02:19
you will report record bank profits --
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将会是史无前例的高
02:23
not just high, record.
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不是一般的高,是史无前例的高。
02:25
Two, the CEO will immediately be made incredibly wealthy
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第二,鉴于现代的高管薪酬结构,
02:30
by modern executive compensation.
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CEO会一夜暴富。
02:33
And three, farther down the road,
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第三,长此以往
02:36
the bank will suffer catastrophic losses
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银行就会遭受巨额损失,
02:39
and will fail unless it is bailed out.
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除非获得救助,不然就将倒闭。
02:42
And that's a hint as to how
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因为我们对整个流程进行了“解剖”。
02:46
we discovered this recipe,
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顺藤摸瓜,
02:48
because we discovered it through an autopsy process.
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我们才发现了这个固定的套路。
02:52
During the savings and loan debacle in 1984,
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1984年储贷危机期间,
02:57
we looked at every single failure,
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我们仔细研究了每一个破产案例。
02:59
and we looked for common characteristics,
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寻找其中的共同点,
03:02
and we discovered this recipe was common
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我们发现这一套路在每个欺诈案例中
03:06
to each of these frauds.
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都存在。
03:08
In other words, a coroner could find these things
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换言之,“验尸官”能够找到这些东西。
03:11
because this is a fatal recipe
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因为这是致命的“毒方”,
03:14
that will destroy the banks
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不仅会毁掉银行,
03:16
as well as the economy.
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也会毁掉我们的经济。
03:18
And it also turns out to be precisely
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这也正是可以阻止
03:21
what could have stopped this crisis,
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这场危机发生的东西,
03:23
the one that cost us 11 trillion dollars
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这一危机仅在经济的私人部门就让我们
03:26
just in the household sector,
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损失11万亿,
03:28
that cost us 10 million jobs,
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丢掉1000万个工作岗位,
03:30
was the easiest financial crisis by far
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如果我们能够运用这一固定套路
03:33
to have avoided completely
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从大面积的管理欺诈行为中吸取教训,
03:36
if we had simply learned the lessons
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我们就可以
03:38
of epidemics of control fraud,
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轻而易举地
03:40
particularly using this recipe.
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避免这场危机的发生。
03:43
So let's go to this crisis,
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现在我们来看看这场危机
03:45
and the two huge epidemics
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以及导致它发生的
03:47
of loan origination fraud that drove the crisis --
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两种大面积借贷欺诈行为:
03:51
appraisal fraud and liar's loans --
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估价欺诈和欺骗性贷款。
03:54
and what we're going to see
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研究这两者,
03:55
in looking at both of these is
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我们发现:
03:58
we got warnings that were incredibly early
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第一,对于这些欺诈行为,我们接到的预警信号
04:01
about these frauds.
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非常之早。
04:03
We got warnings that we could have taken advantage of easily,
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第二,我们可以轻而易举地利用这些预警信号采取措施,
04:07
because back in the savings and loan debacle,
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因为早在储贷危机时期,
04:09
we had figured out how to respond
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我们就知道了如何应对,
04:12
and prevent these crises.
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从而避免危机的发生。
04:14
And three, the warnings were unambiguous.
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第三,这些预警信号确切不疑。
04:17
They were obvious that what was going on
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它们清楚地表明了
04:20
was an epidemic of accounting control fraud building up.
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大面积的会计管理欺诈行为正在升级。
04:25
Let's take appraisal fraud first.
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我们先来看估价欺诈
04:27
This is simply where you inflate the value
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简单地说,估价欺诈就是
04:29
of the home that is being pledged
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夸大用作贷款担保的
04:32
as security for the loan.
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房屋的价值。
04:35
In 2000, the year 2000,
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在2000年,
04:38
that is over a year before Enron fails, by the way,
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也就是安然破产一年多前,
04:43
the honest appraisers got together a formal petition
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有节操的估价师聚在一起,起草了一份正式的请愿书。
04:47
begging the federal government to act,
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要求联邦政府采取措施,
04:50
and the industry to act,
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要求行业自身采取措施,
04:52
to stop this epidemic of appraisal fraud.
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制止这种大面积的估价欺诈行为。
04:56
And the appraisers explained how it was occurring,
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这些估价师解释问题是如何发生的:
04:59
that banks were demanding that appraisers
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银行要求估价师弄虚作假
05:03
inflate the appraisal,
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夸大估值,
05:04
and that if the appraisers refused to do so,
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一旦估价师拒绝配合,
05:08
they, the banks, would blacklist
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银行就把这些有节操的估价师
05:12
honest appraisers
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拉入黑名单,
05:14
and refuse to use them.
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不再雇佣他们。
05:16
Now, we've seen this before
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在储贷危机期间,
05:19
in the savings and loan debacle,
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我们就遇到过这种情况,
05:20
and we know that this kind of fraud
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我们知道这种欺诈行为的
05:22
can only originate from the lenders,
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罪魁祸首就是借方,
05:25
and that no honest lender would ever inflate
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有节操的借方绝对不会
05:28
the appraisal,
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为估值灌水,
05:29
because it's the great protection against loss.
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因为拒绝灌水才是防止损失的上策。
05:32
So this was an incredibly early warning, 2000.
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所以说,预警信号早在2000年就已出现。
05:36
It was something we'd seen before,
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这是我们之前见到过,
05:38
and it was completely unambiguous.
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并且确切不疑。
05:40
This was an epidemic of accounting control fraud
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这就是银行主导的
05:44
led by the banks.
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大面积会计管理欺诈行为。
05:45
What about liar's loans?
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欺骗性贷款又是神马呢?
05:47
Well, that warning actually comes earlier.
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实际上,它的预警信号来得更早。
05:51
The savings and loan debacle is basically
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储贷危机基本上从1980年代早期开始
05:54
the early 1980s through 1993,
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持续到1993年,
05:57
and in the midst of fighting that wave
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在打击那波会计管理欺诈
06:00
of accounting control fraud,
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的行动中,我们在1990年
06:02
in 1990, we found that a second front
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发现欺诈行为出现了
06:07
of fraud was being started.
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第二波。
06:09
And like all good financial frauds in America,
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果不其然,和美国的所有牛逼的金融欺诈行为一样,
06:11
it began in Orange County, California.
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发源地又是加州橙县。
06:15
And we happened to be the regional regulators for it.
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我们刚好是当地的监管机构。
06:18
And our examiners said,
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我们的检查人员说,
06:20
they are making loans without even checking
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当地银行根本不核实借款人的收入情况
06:23
what the borrower's income is.
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直接就发放借款。
06:25
This is insane, it has to lead to massive losses,
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这太没底线了,必然会导致大规模损失,
06:30
and it only makes sense for entities engaged
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这种情况只可能是金融机构进行了
06:34
in these accounting control frauds.
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会计管理欺诈行为。
06:36
And we said, yeah, you're absolutely right,
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我们对检查人员说,没错,你们说的对,
06:38
and we drove those liar's loans
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然后就在90、91年,我们在银行业取缔了
06:41
out of the industry in 1990 and 1991,
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这些欺诈性的贷款。
06:46
but we could only deal with the industry
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但是,我们只能处理我们有权
06:48
we had jurisdiction over,
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管理的业务,
06:50
which was savings and loans,
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也就是储蓄和贷款业务。
06:52
and so the biggest and the baddest of the frauds,
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业内最大最狡猾的诈骗银行
06:55
Long Beach Savings, voluntarily gave up
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“长滩储蓄”主动放弃
06:58
its federal savings and loan charter,
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联邦政府颁发的储蓄和借贷执照,
07:01
gave up federal deposit insurance,
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放弃联邦存款保险,
07:03
converted to become a mortgage bank
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变身一家抵押银行,
07:06
for the sole purpose of escaping our jurisdiction,
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煞费苦心,只为了逃避我们的监管,
07:09
and changed its name to Ameriquest,
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“长滩储蓄”后来更名为Ameriquest,
07:11
and became the most notorious
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是早期欺骗性借贷欺诈行为中
07:13
of the liar's loans frauds early on,
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最为臭名昭著的。
07:17
and to add to that,
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此外,
07:18
they deliberately predated upon minorities.
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他们还故意欺骗美国的少数族裔。
07:23
So we knew again about this crisis.
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所以这样的诈骗性贷款危机也是我们所了解的,
07:27
We'd seen it before. We'd stopped it before.
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我们之前见过,我们之前也阻止过。
07:31
We had incredibly early warnings of it,
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我们接到的预警信号非常之早,
07:34
and it was absolutely unambiguous
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预警信号确切不疑:
07:36
that no honest lender would make loans in this fashion.
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有节操的借方绝不会这样放款。
07:40
So let's take a look at the reaction
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我们来看看面对这些完全可以
07:43
of the industry and the regulators
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阻止危机发生的清晰预警信号,
07:46
and the prosecutors to these clear
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从行业自身、监管机构到
07:48
early warnings that could have prevented the crisis.
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检调人员都做了些什么。
07:53
Start with the industry.
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先看行业本身。
07:55
The industry responded between 2003 and 2006
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从2003年到2006年,金融行业
08:01
by increasing liar's loans
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的欺骗性借贷业务增加了
08:04
by over 500 percent.
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5倍之多。
08:09
These were the loans
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正是这些贷款
08:11
that hyperinflated the bubble
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使泡沫飞速膨大,
08:12
and produced the economic crisis.
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造成了经济危机。
08:16
By 2006, half of all the loans called subprime
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截至2006年,半数被称为次贷的借款,
08:21
were also liar's loans.
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同时也是欺骗性借贷。
08:23
They're not mutually exclusive, it's just that together,
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这两者并不互斥,而是交织在一起
08:26
they're the most toxic combination
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共同构成你所能想象出的
08:29
you can possibly imagine.
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最坏组合。
08:31
By 2006, 40 percent of all the loans
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截至2006年,当年发放的所有贷款,
08:34
made that year, all the home loans made that year,
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当年的所有房屋贷款中,
08:37
were liar's loans,
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四成是欺骗性贷款。
08:40
40 percent.
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高达四成啊,亲。
08:41
And this is despite a warning
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行业自身的反欺诈专家
08:44
from the industry's own antifraud experts
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曾经警告,
08:47
that said that these loans were an open invitation
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这些贷款简直是引狼入室,
08:50
to fraudsters,
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诈骗率高达九成,百分之九十。
08:52
and that they had a fraud incidence
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尽管有这些警告,
08:54
of 90 percent,
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问题
08:56
nine zero.
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还是发生了。
08:59
In response to that, the industry
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作为回应,金融行业
09:02
first started calling these loans liar's loans,
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首先开始称呼这些贷款为欺骗性借贷,
09:07
which lacks a certain subtlety,
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3569
听上去不太悦耳。
09:11
and second, massively increased them,
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551345
3050
其次,大幅增加这种贷款。
09:14
and no government regulator ever
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3261
没有任何政府监管机构
09:17
required or encouraged any lender
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557656
3690
要求或者鼓励任何借方
09:21
to make a liar's loan
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1296
放出欺骗性贷款
09:22
or anyone to purchase a liar's loan,
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2687
要求或鼓励任何人去购买欺骗性借贷,
09:25
and that explicitly includes Fannie and Freddie.
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3170
这当然也包括房利美和房地美。
09:28
This came from the lenders
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568499
2122
由于欺诈的成因和模式,
09:30
because of the fraud recipe.
197
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3169
借方难辞其咎。
09:33
What happened to appraisal fraud?
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2434
估价欺诈行为又是怎样呢?
09:36
It expanded remarkably as well.
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576224
3136
同样膨胀得非常了得。
09:39
By 2007, when a survey of appraisers was done,
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579360
4397
2007年,有份针对估价师的调查,
09:43
90 percent of appraisers reported
201
583757
2701
9成受访的估价师表示,
09:46
that they had been subject to coercion
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586458
2440
他们受到借方的胁迫,
09:48
from the lenders trying to get them
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588898
2492
要求他们对估值进行
09:51
to inflate an appraisal.
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1570
灌水(夸大价值)。
09:52
In other words, both forms of fraud
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2990
换言之,两种形式的欺诈行为
09:55
became absolutely endemic and normal,
206
595950
3774
成为常态,疯狂肆虐,
09:59
and this is what drove the bubble.
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599724
2229
泡沫于是成型。
10:01
What happened in the governmental sector?
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2192
政府部门的情况呢?
10:04
Well, the government, as I told you,
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2604
政府啊,不提也罢,说多了都是泪,
10:06
when we were the savings and loan regulators,
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2716
我们监管储贷的时候,
10:09
we could only deal with our industry,
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2678
我们只能处理我们负责的行业,
10:12
and if people gave up their federal deposit insurance,
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2438
如果借方放弃他们的联邦存款保险,
10:14
we couldn't do anything to them.
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2263
我们就将束手无策。
10:16
Congress, it may strike you as impossible,
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3329
国会,说起来你们可能不信,
10:20
but actually did something intelligent in 1994,
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3248
在1994年实际上倒是干了点实事,
10:23
and passed the Home Ownership and Equity Protection Act
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3553
通过了《房屋所有权和股权保护法》,
10:26
that gave the Fed, and only the Federal Reserve,
217
626974
3253
法案赋权美联储,仅限美联储
10:30
the explicit, statutory authority to ban liar's loans
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630227
4027
明确的法律权力去取缔来自任何借方的
10:34
by every lender,
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2106
欺骗性贷款业务,
10:36
whether or not they had federal deposit insurance.
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636360
2998
无论这些借方有无联邦存款保险。
10:39
So what did Ben Bernanke and Alan Greenspan,
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639358
3535
在接到这些预警信号:
10:42
as chairs of the Fed, do
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642893
1967
这些大面积的欺诈性贷款
10:44
when they got these warnings
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644860
1906
这些要转售给次级市场的欺骗性贷款
10:46
that these were massively fraudulent loans
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646766
3010
作为美联储主席
10:49
and that they were being sold to the secondary market?
225
649776
3354
到底做了些什么?
10:53
Remember, there's no fraud exorcist.
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2220
请记住,没有神人能将这些欺诈行为消失。
10:55
Once it starts out a fraudulent loan,
227
655350
2048
欺骗性贷款一旦出现,
10:57
it can only be sold to the secondary market
228
657398
2312
只能通过更多的欺诈行为,
10:59
through more frauds,
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659710
1196
如编造合约声明和保证条款
11:00
lying about the reps and warrantees,
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660906
2548
把这一借款转售给次级市场。
11:03
and then those people are going to produce
231
663454
1608
然后借方再推出
11:05
mortgage-backed securities
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1428
抵押贷款证券和
11:06
and exotic derivatives
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666490
1268
衍生产品,
11:07
which are also going to be supposedly backed
234
667758
3222
而为这些产品进行担保的正是
11:10
by those fraudulent loans.
235
670980
1723
欺骗性借款。
11:12
So the fraud is going to progress
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672703
1541
欺诈行为将贯穿
11:14
through the entire system,
237
674244
1464
整个系统的始终,
11:15
hyperinflate the bubble, produce a disaster.
238
675708
3253
使泡沫急剧膨胀,进而造成灾难。
11:18
And remember, we had experience with this.
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678961
3301
想想看,这事我们之前经历过。
11:22
We had seen significant losses,
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682262
2288
我们遭受了巨大的损失,
11:24
and we had experience of competent regulators
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684550
3446
职能监管机构也有阻止危机出现的
11:27
in stopping it.
242
687996
1490
先例。
11:29
Greenspan and Bernanke refused
243
689486
2896
但是格林斯潘和伯南克拒绝
11:32
to use the authority under the statute
244
692382
2411
使用法律赋予他们的权力来取缔
11:34
to stop liar's loans.
245
694793
2317
欺骗性借贷。
11:37
And this was a matter first of dogma.
246
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2564
首先,这完全是意识形态在作祟。
11:39
They're just horrifically opposed
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699674
2851
他们反对任何形式的监管措施,
11:42
to anything regulatory.
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702525
1819
令人震惊和深恶痛绝。
11:44
But it is also the international competition in laxity,
249
704344
4716
但同时也是国际上放松监管的竞争,
11:49
the race to the bottom
250
709060
1284
力争下游。
11:50
between the United States and the United Kingdom,
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710344
4035
这场竞争在美国和英国,确切说是
11:54
the city of London, in particular,
252
714379
1601
伦敦之间展开,
11:55
and the city of London won that race to the bottom,
253
715980
2970
伦敦获胜,监管最松。
11:58
but it meant that all regulation in the West
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718950
3852
这也意味着,
12:02
was completely degraded
255
722802
2004
从这场看谁的监控最松的愚蠢竞争中
12:04
in this stupid competition to be
256
724806
2084
可以看出在西方社会,
12:06
who could have the weakest regulation.
257
726890
2072
监管措施是多么的不受待见。
12:08
So that was the regulatory response.
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2050
这就是监管层面的反应。
12:11
What about the response of the prosecutors
259
731012
3657
这场让我们损失11万亿
12:14
after the crisis,
260
734669
1735
1000万个工作岗位,
12:16
after 11 trillion dollars in losses,
261
736404
4198
损失和欺诈规模
12:20
after 10 million jobs lost,
262
740602
2040
超过储贷危机
12:22
a crisis in which the losses and the frauds
263
742642
3284
70倍的危机之后,
12:25
were more than 70 times larger
264
745926
3455
检调人员
12:29
than the savings and loan debacle?
265
749381
2304
又做了些什么呢?
12:31
Well, in the savings and loan debacle,
266
751685
1891
在储贷危机中,
12:33
our agency that regulated savings and loans, OTS,
267
753576
3970
负责储贷监管的机构-储蓄管理局
12:37
made over 30,000 criminal referrals,
268
757546
4084
提出3万起刑事诉讼,
12:41
produced over 1,000 felony convictions
269
761630
2636
1千人被判以重罪,
12:44
just in cases designated as major,
270
764266
2674
这还仅是大案要案方面,
12:46
and that understates the degree of prioritization,
271
766940
3138
而且还没反映问题的严重性,
12:50
because we worked with the FBI
272
770078
1796
因为我们跟联邦调查局携手,
12:51
to create the list of the top 100 fraud schemes,
273
771874
4264
开列了一个清单,上面是全国范围内
12:56
the absolute worst of the worst, nationwide.
274
776138
3264
最没节操最无底线的100种诈骗伎俩。
12:59
Roughly 300 savings and loans involved,
275
779402
2784
差不多300个储贷机构,
13:02
roughly 600 senior officials.
276
782186
3314
600个高级官员涉案。
13:05
Virtually all of them were prosecuted.
277
785500
2340
几乎全被起诉,
13:07
We had a 90 percent conviction rate.
278
787840
2831
定罪率9成。
13:10
It's the greatest success against
279
790671
1830
堪称针对白领精英犯罪的
13:12
elite white collar criminals ever,
280
792501
2602
一场漂亮仗,史无前例,
13:15
and it was because of this understanding
281
795103
2236
原因无他,我们掌握了管理欺诈及
13:17
of control fraud
282
797339
1335
会计管理欺诈的内幕
13:18
and the accounting control fraud mechanism.
283
798674
2511
和伎俩。
13:21
Flash forward to the current crisis.
284
801185
3172
再回到当前的这场危机。
13:24
The same agency, Office of Thrift Supervision,
285
804357
2573
同一个机构-储蓄管理局,
13:26
which was supposed to regulate
286
806930
1630
本应该监管全国
13:28
many of the largest makers of liar's loans
287
808560
2097
欺骗性贷款祸首的各大银行。
13:30
in the country,
288
810657
1107
到今天,什么都没做,
13:31
has made, even today -- it no longer exists,
289
811764
4694
好像一切不曾发生过,
13:36
but as of a year ago,
290
816458
1808
一年前,提出的
13:38
it had made zero criminal referrals.
291
818266
4844
刑事诉讼案件数还是零。
13:43
The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency,
292
823110
1696
负责全国性大银行
13:44
which is supposed to regulate the largest national banks,
293
824806
2516
监管任务的金融管理局,
13:47
has made zero criminal referrals.
294
827322
2551
提出的刑事诉讼案件数同样为零。
13:49
The Fed appears to have made
295
829873
1626
美联储提出的刑事诉讼案件貌似
13:51
zero criminal referrals.
296
831499
1995
也是零。
13:53
The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation
297
833494
1955
联邦存款保险公司更刁钻,顾左右而言他,
13:55
is smart enough to refuse to answer the question.
298
835449
4534
根本不回答这个问题。
13:59
Without any guidance from the regulators,
299
839983
5535
没有监管机构的协助,
14:05
there's no expertise in the FBI
300
845518
2882
联邦调查局在调查复杂的欺诈案件上
14:08
to investigate complex frauds.
301
848400
2472
无能为力。
14:10
It isn't simply that they've had
302
850872
1932
提出诉讼不是什么难事,
14:12
to reinvent the wheel
303
852804
1822
不过是举手之劳,易如反掌。
14:14
of how to do these prosecutions;
304
854626
1918
只是他们忘了怎么举,
14:16
they've forgotten that the wheel exists,
305
856544
4756
忘了怎么反。
14:21
and therefore, we have zero prosecutions,
306
861300
4098
因而,
14:25
and of course, zero convictions,
307
865398
2602
造成这场危机的
14:28
of any of the elite bank frauds,
308
868000
2790
华尔街顶尖银行诈骗犯们
14:30
the Wall Street types,
309
870790
1537
没有一个被起诉
14:32
that drove this crisis.
310
872327
3132
没有一个被定罪。
14:35
With no expertise coming from the regulators,
311
875459
2237
监管机构不愿伸出援手,
14:37
the FBI formed what it calls a partnership
312
877696
3091
联邦调查局2007年与抵押贷款银行家协会
14:40
with the Mortgage Bankers Association in 2007.
313
880787
4323
携起手来。
14:45
The Mortgage Bankers Association
314
885110
1833
抵押贷款银行家协会
14:46
is the trade association of the perps.
315
886943
3751
是这些祸首的行业组织。
14:50
And the Mortgage Bankers Association
316
890694
2416
抵押贷款银行家协会
14:53
set out, it had the audacity and the success
317
893110
3790
出手了,他们不仅有能力也有动机
14:56
to con the FBI.
318
896900
1678
去欺骗联邦调查局。
14:58
It had created a supposed definition
319
898578
3077
抵押贷款银行家协会为抵押欺诈行为
15:01
of mortgage fraud, in which, guess what,
320
901655
2875
下了个定义,不出所料,按照这个定义,
15:04
its members are always the victim
321
904530
1862
这个协会的成员都是欺诈行为的受害者,
15:06
and never the perpetrators.
322
906392
2017
没一个是欺诈行为的加害者。
15:08
And the FBI has bought this hook, line, sinker,
323
908409
4514
联邦调查局不疑有他
15:12
rod, reel and the boat they rode out in.
324
912923
4081
照单全收。
15:17
And so the FBI,
325
917004
3056
就这样,
15:20
under the leadership of an attorney general
326
920060
3098
在一个非裔司法部长
15:23
who is African-American
327
923158
1174
和一个非裔美国总统的
15:24
and a president of the United States who is African-American,
328
924332
2462
领导之下,联邦调查局完全相信了
15:26
have adopted the Tea Party definition of the crisis,
329
926794
3500
茶党对这场危机的说辞,
15:30
in which it is the first virgin crisis in history,
330
930294
3482
成了破天荒的“圣女生子案”,
15:33
conceived without sin in the executive ranks.
331
933776
3678
高管层人人清白。
15:37
And it's those oh-so-clever hairdressers
332
937454
3396
问题出在狡猾的临时工身上,
15:40
who were able to defraud the poor, pitiful banks,
333
940850
3218
他们在欺骗穷人,他们在欺骗对金融行业一无所知
15:44
who lack any financial sophistication.
334
944068
2384
的银行业者。
15:46
It is the silliest story you can conceive of,
335
946452
3358
这简直是最奇葩的谎话,
15:49
and so they go and they prosecute the hairdressers,
336
949810
3901
然后他们把临时工抓起来了,
15:53
and they leave the banksters alone entirely.
337
953711
4179
银行家们毫发未损。
15:57
And so, while lions are roaming the campsite,
338
957890
2910
就这样,满地西瓜
16:00
the FBI is chasing mice.
339
960800
3210
联邦调查局却在那里捡芝麻。
16:04
What do we need to do?
340
964010
1430
我们该怎么办?
16:05
What can we do in all of this?
341
965440
2504
面对这一切,我们能做什么?
16:07
We need to change the perverse incentive structures
342
967944
3819
我们需要改革不正常的激励机制,
16:11
that produce these recurrent epidemics
343
971763
2996
正是这种机制在催生一再出现的大面积
16:14
of accounting control fraud
344
974759
1329
会计管理欺诈行为,
16:16
that are driving our crises.
345
976088
2014
进而导致危机的发生。
16:18
So we have to first get rid
346
978102
2888
第一,我们要排除这种具有
16:20
of the systemically dangerous institutions.
347
980990
2488
系统性危险的金融机构。
16:23
These are the so-called too-big-to-fail institutions.
348
983478
3485
所谓“尾大不掉”的金融机构。
16:26
We need to shrink them to the point,
349
986963
2142
在接下来的五年里,
16:29
within the next five years,
350
989105
1595
我们要给它们大幅瘦身,
16:30
that they no longer pose a systemic risk.
351
990700
2735
让它们不再具有系统性风险。
16:33
Right now, they are ticking time bombs
352
993435
2137
现在,它们就是定时炸弹,
16:35
that will cause a global crisis
353
995572
3343
其中一个破产倒闭,
16:38
as soon as the next one fails --
354
998915
2349
就会引发全球性危机。
16:41
not if, when.
355
1001264
1796
而且问题还不是会不会倒,而是什么时候倒的问题。
16:43
Second thing we need to do is completely reform
356
1003060
2911
第二,我们要彻底改革
16:45
modern executive and professional compensation,
357
1005971
2992
当前的高管人员薪酬制度,
16:48
which is what they use to suborn the appraisers.
358
1008963
4343
这也是他们用来胁迫估价师的工具和手段。
16:53
Remember, they were pressuring the appraisers
359
1013306
1888
想想看,他们在通过薪酬体系
16:55
through the compensation system,
360
1015194
1782
向估价师施压,
16:56
trying to produce what we call a Gresham's dynamic,
361
1016976
2662
造成“劣币驱逐良币”的
16:59
in which bad ethics drives good ethics
362
1019638
2579
格雷欣效应,
17:02
out of the marketplace.
363
1022217
1366
市场上道德节操无人问津。
17:03
And they largely succeeded,
364
1023583
1936
很大程度上,他们得逞了。
17:05
which is how the fraud became endemic.
365
1025519
2883
这就是为什么欺诈行为如此猖獗。
17:08
And the third thing that we need to do
366
1028402
2698
第三,我们要解决三“无”问题:
17:11
is deal with what we call the three D's:
367
1031100
2638
无规章制度、无有效监管
17:13
deregulation, desupervision,
368
1033738
2581
出事后,无人担责被绳之以法
17:16
and the de facto decriminalization.
369
1036319
4021
的问题。
17:20
Because we can make
370
1040340
2097
因为我们可以
17:22
all three of these changes, and if we do so,
371
1042437
3674
从这三方面进行改革,只要我们这样做,
17:26
we can dramatically reduce
372
1046111
2809
就能大幅降低危机
17:28
how often we have a crisis
373
1048920
2192
发生的频率和危机发生后的
17:31
and how severe those crises are.
374
1051112
3627
危害程度。
17:34
That is not simply critical to our economy.
375
1054739
2981
这不仅事关我们的经济。
17:37
You can see what these crises do to inequality
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3426
看看这些危机对贫富差距的影响,
17:41
and what they do to our democracy.
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2320
对我们的民主制度的破坏。
17:43
They have produced crony capitalism,
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危机产生了裙带资本主义,
17:46
American-style,
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1382
有美国特色的裙带资本主义,
17:47
in which the largest financial institutions
380
1067592
3278
最大的金融机构是
17:50
are the leading financial donors of both parties,
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3644
两党的最大金主。
17:54
and that's the reason why
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1920
这就是为什么
17:56
even after this crisis,
383
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3975
这场比储贷危机严重
18:00
70 times larger than the savings and loan crisis,
384
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5285
70倍的危机发生之后,
18:05
we have no meaningful reforms
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2854
在我提到的三个方面依然没有
18:08
in any of the three areas that I've talked about,
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1088548
3374
任何实质性的改革。
18:11
other than banning liar's loans,
387
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1792
除了欺骗性贷款被取缔,
18:13
which is good,
388
1093714
1076
这当然是好事
18:14
but that's just one form of ammunition
389
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2424
但欺骗性贷款只是他们手中的
18:17
for this fraud weapon.
390
1097214
1396
一种武器。
18:18
There are many forms of ammunition they can use.
391
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3981
他们可用的武器还很多。
18:22
That's why we need to learn
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1751
这就是为什么我们需要
18:24
what the bankers have learned:
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2112
求教银行家的地方:
18:26
the recipe for the best way to rob a bank,
394
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3423
抢银行的最佳“秘方”,
18:29
so that we can stop that recipe,
395
1109877
2865
这样我们才能除掉它。
18:32
because our legislators,
396
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1762
因为我们的国会议员
18:34
who are dependent on political contributions,
397
1114504
2690
离不开政治献金,
18:37
will not do it on their own.
398
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2194
所以他们不会主动来做这一切。
18:39
Thank you very much.
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2070
谢谢,多谢。
18:41
(Applause)
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2127
(掌声)
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