How to rob a bank (from the inside, that is) | William Black

147,686 views ・ 2014-05-12

TED


請雙擊下方英文字幕播放視頻。

譯者: Yamei Huang 審譯者: Adrienne Lin
00:12
So today's top chef class is in how to rob a bank,
0
12739
3795
今天的頂尖主廚要教大家 如何搶銀行,
00:16
and it's clear that the general public needs guidance,
1
16534
4285
很顯然一般民眾需要一些指導,
00:20
because the average bank robbery nets
2
20819
2873
因為銀行搶案
00:23
only 7,500 dollars.
3
23692
2538
平均只搶到美金 7,500 元。
00:26
Rank amateurs who know nothing
4
26230
1970
這完全是不懂得如何做假帳
00:28
about how to cook the books.
5
28200
2339
業餘等級的水準。
00:30
The folks who know, of course,
6
30539
2060
當然,那些內行的人,
00:32
run our largest banks,
7
32599
1791
都是大銀行的高層,
00:34
and in the last go-around,
8
34390
2518
上一次他們一出手,
00:36
they cost us over 11 trillion dollars.
9
36908
4236
我們就損失 11 兆美元。
00:41
That's what 11 trillion looks like.
10
41144
2417
11 兆美元看起來像這樣 。
00:43
That's how many zeros?
11
43561
1547
這個金額有幾個零?
00:45
And cost us over 10 million jobs as well.
12
45108
3436
也讓我們損失超過 1000 萬個 工作機會。
00:48
So our task is to educate ourselves
13
48544
2651
所以當務之急是自我教育,
00:51
so that we can understand
14
51195
1208
以了解
00:52
why we have these recurrent,
15
52403
2450
為何金融危機一再發生,
00:54
intensifying financial crises,
16
54853
2077
而且變本加厲,
00:56
and how we can prevent them in the future.
17
56930
3195
以及如何防範於未來。
01:00
And the answer to that is
18
60125
2390
答案就是
01:02
that we have to stop epidemics of control fraud.
19
62515
4406
我們必須杜絶大規模 管理詐欺的行為,
01:06
Control fraud is what happens
20
66921
1949
管理詐欺是指
01:08
when the people who control,
21
68870
1820
管理者,
01:10
typically a CEO,
22
70690
1725
尤其是執行長,
01:12
a seemingly legitimate entity,
23
72415
2573
管理一個貌似合法的機構時,
01:14
use it as a weapon to defraud.
24
74988
2256
把這個機構當成詐騙的武器。
01:17
And these are the weapons of mass destruction
25
77244
3595
這是金融界裡
01:20
in the financial world.
26
80839
2100
最具殺傷力的武器。
01:22
They also follow in finance a particular strategy,
27
82939
4730
在金融界裡, 他們也採用一種特定的策略,
01:27
because the weapon of choice in finance
28
87669
2372
因為他們在財務上所用的武器
01:30
is accounting,
29
90041
1470
就是會計方法,
01:31
and there is a recipe for accounting
30
91511
3894
以會計方法管理詐欺行為
01:35
control fraud, and how it occurs.
31
95405
2330
及其發生有個秘訣,
01:37
And we discovered this recipe
32
97735
1633
我們在很不尋常的情況下
01:39
in quite an odd way that I'll come back to in a moment.
33
99368
2694
發現了這個秘訣, 我稍後再談。
01:42
First ingredient in the recipe: grow like crazy;
34
102062
3977
第一個秘訣是: 瘋狂地擴張公司資本;
01:46
second, by making or buying really crappy loans,
35
106039
5038
第二個秘訣是: 放出或購買高風險貸款,
01:51
but loans that are made at a very high interest rate
36
111077
3483
這種貸款的利率
01:54
or yield;
37
114560
1478
或收益非常高;
01:56
three, while employing extreme leverage --
38
116038
2232
第三個秘訣是:利用高度財務槓桿
01:58
that just means a lot of debt --
39
118270
1715
這意味著對資產而言
01:59
compared to your equity;
40
119985
1234
有著很大比率的負債;
02:01
and four, while providing only trivial loss reserves
41
121219
4020
第四個秘訣是:提供極少的準備金
02:05
against the inevitable losses.
42
125239
2184
去因應呆帳損失。
02:07
If you follow those four simple steps,
43
127423
3666
如果你遵循這四個簡單的步驟,
02:11
and any bank can follow them,
44
131089
2301
任何銀行都做得到,
02:13
then you are mathematically guaranteed
45
133390
2508
保證一定會發生
02:15
to have three things occur.
46
135898
2190
以下三種情況,
02:18
The first thing is
47
138088
1560
第一是:
02:19
you will report record bank profits --
48
139648
3364
銀行有很高的帳面利潤
02:23
not just high, record.
49
143012
2511
不只是高,而是史無前例地高。
02:25
Two, the CEO will immediately be made incredibly wealthy
50
145523
5257
第二:以目前管理階層的薪資結構,
02:30
by modern executive compensation.
51
150780
2896
執行長將一夕致富。
02:33
And three, farther down the road,
52
153676
2870
第三:長久以來,
02:36
the bank will suffer catastrophic losses
53
156546
3061
銀行將蒙受巨大的損失
02:39
and will fail unless it is bailed out.
54
159607
3196
除非獲得金援,不然就會倒閉。
02:42
And that's a hint as to how
55
162803
3740
了解事情的來龍去脈後,
02:46
we discovered this recipe,
56
166543
1736
我們才發現了這個秘訣,
02:48
because we discovered it through an autopsy process.
57
168279
4076
這是經過我們抽絲剝繭分析出的。
02:52
During the savings and loan debacle in 1984,
58
172355
4912
1984 年貸款危機期間,
02:57
we looked at every single failure,
59
177267
2455
我們研究每一個破產案例,
02:59
and we looked for common characteristics,
60
179722
2417
尋找其中的共同點,
03:02
and we discovered this recipe was common
61
182139
4259
我們發現這個秘訣
普遍存在於每一個詐欺案例中。
03:06
to each of these frauds.
62
186398
2314
03:08
In other words, a coroner could find these things
63
188712
3078
換句話說, 稽查員能夠查到這些事項
03:11
because this is a fatal recipe
64
191790
2860
因為這致命秘訣
03:14
that will destroy the banks
65
194650
1424
不但摧毀銀行
03:16
as well as the economy.
66
196074
2091
也會摧毀經濟。
03:18
And it also turns out to be precisely
67
198165
3513
結果它正是
03:21
what could have stopped this crisis,
68
201678
2262
可以阻止這類危機的方法,
03:23
the one that cost us 11 trillion dollars
69
203940
2522
這危機讓我們損失 11 兆美元,
03:26
just in the household sector,
70
206462
1936
這只是住房領域(房貸部門)而已,
03:28
that cost us 10 million jobs,
71
208398
2104
也讓我們失去 1000 萬個 工作機會,
03:30
was the easiest financial crisis by far
72
210502
3454
這是目前為止最輕而易舉
03:33
to have avoided completely
73
213956
2471
完全解決金融危機,
03:36
if we had simply learned the lessons
74
216427
2072
只要我們從大規模管理詐欺中
03:38
of epidemics of control fraud,
75
218499
2105
記取教訓,
03:40
particularly using this recipe.
76
220604
2491
善加運用這個秘訣。
03:43
So let's go to this crisis,
77
223095
1907
接下來我們開始討論這類危機,
03:45
and the two huge epidemics
78
225002
2849
二種大規模貸款詐欺
03:47
of loan origination fraud that drove the crisis --
79
227851
3664
導致發生危機的來源是:
03:51
appraisal fraud and liar's loans --
80
231515
2833
估價詐欺和欺騙性貸款。
03:54
and what we're going to see
81
234348
1445
我們將發現:
03:55
in looking at both of these is
82
235793
2347
第一:對於這些詐欺行為
03:58
we got warnings that were incredibly early
83
238140
3253
在相當早之前
04:01
about these frauds.
84
241393
1969
就會獲得警訊。
04:03
We got warnings that we could have taken advantage of easily,
85
243362
4138
第二:藉由這些警訊 我們可以輕易採取預防措施,
04:07
because back in the savings and loan debacle,
86
247500
2470
早在儲貨危機發生時,
04:09
we had figured out how to respond
87
249970
2620
我們就知道如何因應
04:12
and prevent these crises.
88
252590
2078
以避免發生這些危機。
04:14
And three, the warnings were unambiguous.
89
254668
3304
第三:這些警訊相當明確。
04:17
They were obvious that what was going on
90
257972
2569
清楚顯示
04:20
was an epidemic of accounting control fraud building up.
91
260541
4879
大規模的會計管理詐欺行為 正在擴大。
04:25
Let's take appraisal fraud first.
92
265420
1773
我們先來看估價詐欺。
04:27
This is simply where you inflate the value
93
267193
2708
簡單地說,估價詐欺就是
04:29
of the home that is being pledged
94
269901
2729
誇大用來擔保貸款
04:32
as security for the loan.
95
272630
2597
的房屋價值。
04:35
In 2000, the year 2000,
96
275227
3506
在 2000 年,
04:38
that is over a year before Enron fails, by the way,
97
278733
4334
這是安隆破產的一年多前,
04:43
the honest appraisers got together a formal petition
98
283067
4236
正直的估價師共同擬定一份請願書
04:47
begging the federal government to act,
99
287303
3102
要求聯邦政府採取措施,
04:50
and the industry to act,
100
290405
1855
及相關業者採取措施,
04:52
to stop this epidemic of appraisal fraud.
101
292260
3809
去阻止大規模的估價詐欺行為。
04:56
And the appraisers explained how it was occurring,
102
296069
3304
估價師解釋這類詐欺行為如何發生,
04:59
that banks were demanding that appraisers
103
299373
3637
銀行要求估價師
05:03
inflate the appraisal,
104
303010
1910
誇大其估價,
05:04
and that if the appraisers refused to do so,
105
304920
3301
如果估價師拒絕配合,
05:08
they, the banks, would blacklist
106
308221
3856
銀行就會將這些正直的估價師
05:12
honest appraisers
107
312077
2222
列入黑名單。
05:14
and refuse to use them.
108
314299
2552
不再僱用他們。
05:16
Now, we've seen this before
109
316851
2562
在儲貸危機期間
05:19
in the savings and loan debacle,
110
319413
1528
我們已經看過這種情形,
05:20
and we know that this kind of fraud
111
320941
1824
我們知道這種詐欺行為
05:22
can only originate from the lenders,
112
322765
2596
只可能來自貸方,
05:25
and that no honest lender would ever inflate
113
325361
3044
不誠實的貸方
05:28
the appraisal,
114
328405
1309
想要為估價灌水,
05:29
because it's the great protection against loss.
115
329714
3096
因為這是防止損失的最好方法。
05:32
So this was an incredibly early warning, 2000.
116
332810
3631
所以,這個預警訊號 早在 2000 年就出現,
05:36
It was something we'd seen before,
117
336441
2181
這是我們之前看過,
05:38
and it was completely unambiguous.
118
338622
2239
且是相當明確的警訊。
05:40
This was an epidemic of accounting control fraud
119
340861
3392
這些大規模會計管理詐欺行為
05:44
led by the banks.
120
344253
1597
是由銀行所主導的。
05:45
What about liar's loans?
121
345850
1673
接下來,什麼是詐欺貸款呢?
05:47
Well, that warning actually comes earlier.
122
347523
3849
實際上,這個警訊出現的更早。
05:51
The savings and loan debacle is basically
123
351372
2629
儲貨危機基本上是發生於
05:54
the early 1980s through 1993,
124
354001
3547
1980 年代的早期 一直到 1993 年,
05:57
and in the midst of fighting that wave
125
357548
2755
在打擊會計管理詐欺
06:00
of accounting control fraud,
126
360303
2667
的行動中,
06:02
in 1990, we found that a second front
127
362970
4188
在 1990 年,我們發現
出現第二波的詐欺行為。
06:07
of fraud was being started.
128
367158
2045
06:09
And like all good financial frauds in America,
129
369203
2155
如同美國所有經過精心策畫 的金融詐欺,
06:11
it began in Orange County, California.
130
371358
3852
起源於加州橘縣,
06:15
And we happened to be the regional regulators for it.
131
375210
3011
我們恰巧是當地的監管單位
06:18
And our examiners said,
132
378221
1789
我們的稽查人員說,
06:20
they are making loans without even checking
133
380010
3355
銀行根本沒有查核
06:23
what the borrower's income is.
134
383365
2503
借款人的收入情況就放款。
06:25
This is insane, it has to lead to massive losses,
135
385868
4583
真是太離譜了, 必定會導致巨大的損失,
06:30
and it only makes sense for entities engaged
136
390451
3632
這種情況只有金融機構
06:34
in these accounting control frauds.
137
394083
2241
參與會計管理詐欺。
06:36
And we said, yeah, you're absolutely right,
138
396324
2271
我們對稽核人員說,你們說的對,
06:38
and we drove those liar's loans
139
398595
3298
於 1990 及 1991 年
06:41
out of the industry in 1990 and 1991,
140
401893
4444
我們將詐欺借款逐出金融業,
06:46
but we could only deal with the industry
141
406337
2052
但是,我們只能處理
06:48
we had jurisdiction over,
142
408389
2049
權限範圍內的業務,
06:50
which was savings and loans,
143
410438
1705
也就是儲蓄和貸款業務,
06:52
and so the biggest and the baddest of the frauds,
144
412143
3380
其中最大、最惡劣的銀行-
06:55
Long Beach Savings, voluntarily gave up
145
415523
2906
長灘儲貸銀行,主動放棄此業務,
06:58
its federal savings and loan charter,
146
418429
2869
主動放棄聯邦政府頒發的 儲蓄和借貸執照,
07:01
gave up federal deposit insurance,
147
421298
2443
放棄聯邦銀行的存款保險,
07:03
converted to become a mortgage bank
148
423741
2259
變成一家抵押銀行,
07:06
for the sole purpose of escaping our jurisdiction,
149
426000
3200
只為了逃避我們的監管,
07:09
and changed its name to Ameriquest,
150
429200
2573
並把公司名稱改為 Ameriquest,
07:11
and became the most notorious
151
431773
1672
是早期欺騙性借貸詐欺行為中
07:13
of the liar's loans frauds early on,
152
433445
3625
最為惡名昭彰的銀行。
07:17
and to add to that,
153
437070
1536
此外,
07:18
they deliberately predated upon minorities.
154
438606
5220
他們還故意欺騙少數民族。
07:23
So we knew again about this crisis.
155
443826
4091
所以我們了解這類詐欺性貸款危機。
07:27
We'd seen it before. We'd stopped it before.
156
447917
3234
我們之前看過,也阻止過。
07:31
We had incredibly early warnings of it,
157
451151
3190
在相當早之前就接獲警訊,
07:34
and it was absolutely unambiguous
158
454341
1852
此警訊相當明確
07:36
that no honest lender would make loans in this fashion.
159
456193
4206
正直的貸方絶不會做這種放款。
07:40
So let's take a look at the reaction
160
460399
2842
我們看一下銀行業,
07:43
of the industry and the regulators
161
463241
2946
監管機關,
07:46
and the prosecutors to these clear
162
466187
2803
檢調單位的反應
07:48
early warnings that could have prevented the crisis.
163
468990
4467
就能夠及早獲得警訊, 預防危機的發生。
07:53
Start with the industry.
164
473457
1849
先從金融業開始,
07:55
The industry responded between 2003 and 2006
165
475306
5954
從 2003 年到 2006 年,
08:01
by increasing liar's loans
166
481260
2841
金融業的詐騙性貸款業務
08:04
by over 500 percent.
167
484101
5232
增加超過 500%。
08:09
These were the loans
168
489333
1895
這些貸款
08:11
that hyperinflated the bubble
169
491228
1755
過度膨漲,泡沬化,
08:12
and produced the economic crisis.
170
492983
3648
造成經濟危機。
08:16
By 2006, half of all the loans called subprime
171
496631
4851
截至 2006 年,半數所謂的次級貸款
08:21
were also liar's loans.
172
501482
2026
就是詐欺性貸款。
08:23
They're not mutually exclusive, it's just that together,
173
503508
3285
這兩者非獨立運作,而是互相影響,
08:26
they're the most toxic combination
174
506793
2440
形成你所能想像的
08:29
you can possibly imagine.
175
509233
1860
致命組合。
08:31
By 2006, 40 percent of all the loans
176
511093
3754
於 2006 年,有 40% 的貸款,
08:34
made that year, all the home loans made that year,
177
514847
2617
所申請的房屋貸款
08:37
were liar's loans,
178
517464
2722
是屬於詐欺性貸款,
08:40
40 percent.
179
520186
1311
高達 40%!
08:41
And this is despite a warning
180
521497
2704
儘管銀行業的
08:44
from the industry's own antifraud experts
181
524201
3423
反詐欺專家警告
08:47
that said that these loans were an open invitation
182
527624
3155
這些詐欺性貸款
08:50
to fraudsters,
183
530779
1960
有如引狼入室,
08:52
and that they had a fraud incidence
184
532739
1742
詐騙率
08:54
of 90 percent,
185
534481
2488
達到 90%,
08:56
nine zero.
186
536969
2692
是九十喔。
08:59
In response to that, the industry
187
539661
3067
金融業的反應是,
09:02
first started calling these loans liar's loans,
188
542728
5048
首先:一開始稱這種貸款 為詐欺性貸款,
09:07
which lacks a certain subtlety,
189
547776
3569
這個稱呼不是很好,
09:11
and second, massively increased them,
190
551345
3050
第二是:大幅地增加這種貸款,
09:14
and no government regulator ever
191
554395
3261
政府監管機關沒有
09:17
required or encouraged any lender
192
557656
3690
要求或鼓勵貸方
09:21
to make a liar's loan
193
561346
1296
去做詐騙性貸款
09:22
or anyone to purchase a liar's loan,
194
562642
2687
或買入詐騙性貸款,
09:25
and that explicitly includes Fannie and Freddie.
195
565329
3170
當然包括房利美和房地美。
09:28
This came from the lenders
196
568499
2122
這詐欺性貸款的手法
09:30
because of the fraud recipe.
197
570621
3169
歸咎於貸方的問題。
09:33
What happened to appraisal fraud?
198
573790
2434
估價詐欺又是怎麼一回事呢?
09:36
It expanded remarkably as well.
199
576224
3136
同樣也是非常快速地膨漲起來。
09:39
By 2007, when a survey of appraisers was done,
200
579360
4397
2007 年, 有一份估價師的調查報告,
09:43
90 percent of appraisers reported
201
583757
2701
90% 的估價師表示,
09:46
that they had been subject to coercion
202
586458
2440
貸方曾向他們施壓
09:48
from the lenders trying to get them
203
588898
2492
要求將估價
09:51
to inflate an appraisal.
204
591390
1570
灌水。
09:52
In other words, both forms of fraud
205
592960
2990
換句話說,這兩種型態的詐欺,
09:55
became absolutely endemic and normal,
206
595950
3774
已變成通病和常態,
09:59
and this is what drove the bubble.
207
599724
2229
這是造成經濟泡沫化的原因。
10:01
What happened in the governmental sector?
208
601953
2192
政府單位又是怎麼一回事?
10:04
Well, the government, as I told you,
209
604145
2604
至於政府,就如我所說的,
10:06
when we were the savings and loan regulators,
210
606749
2716
我們在執行儲貸監管業務時,
10:09
we could only deal with our industry,
211
609465
2678
只能處理我們負責的業務,
10:12
and if people gave up their federal deposit insurance,
212
612143
2438
如果貸方放棄聯邦政府存款保險
10:14
we couldn't do anything to them.
213
614581
2263
我們也束手無策。
10:16
Congress, it may strike you as impossible,
214
616844
3329
至於國會議員,或許你不相信,
10:20
but actually did something intelligent in 1994,
215
620173
3248
事實上,他們在 1994 年 做了一點聰明事,
10:23
and passed the Home Ownership and Equity Protection Act
216
623421
3553
通過了「房屋所有權和權益保護法」
10:26
that gave the Fed, and only the Federal Reserve,
217
626974
3253
賦予美國聯邦儲備局(美聯儲), 只限美聯儲
10:30
the explicit, statutory authority to ban liar's loans
218
630227
4027
明確的法定權力,禁止貸款人的
10:34
by every lender,
219
634254
2106
詐欺貸款業務,
10:36
whether or not they had federal deposit insurance.
220
636360
2998
無論貸款人是否擁有聯邦存款保險,
10:39
So what did Ben Bernanke and Alan Greenspan,
221
639358
3535
當柏南奇和葛林斯潘
10:42
as chairs of the Fed, do
222
642893
1967
任職美聯儲主席時, 是採取何種措施
10:44
when they got these warnings
223
644860
1906
以回應以下的警訊:
10:46
that these were massively fraudulent loans
224
646766
3010
大規模的詐欺貸款
10:49
and that they were being sold to the secondary market?
225
649776
3354
以及把這些貸款賣給次級市場?
10:53
Remember, there's no fraud exorcist.
226
653130
2220
請記住,沒有人可以讓這些詐欺消失。
10:55
Once it starts out a fraudulent loan,
227
655350
2048
一旦發生詐欺貸款,
10:57
it can only be sold to the secondary market
228
657398
2312
只能透過更多的詐欺貸款
10:59
through more frauds,
229
659710
1196
轉賣給次級市場,
11:00
lying about the reps and warrantees,
230
660906
2548
捏造財務報告和保證條款,
11:03
and then those people are going to produce
231
663454
1608
然後再包裝成
11:05
mortgage-backed securities
232
665062
1428
不動產抵押貸款證券
11:06
and exotic derivatives
233
666490
1268
和衍生性金融商品
11:07
which are also going to be supposedly backed
234
667758
3222
而為這些產品擔保的是
11:10
by those fraudulent loans.
235
670980
1723
詐欺貸款。
11:12
So the fraud is going to progress
236
672703
1541
所以詐欺貸款
11:14
through the entire system,
237
674244
1464
貫穿整個金融借貸系統,
11:15
hyperinflate the bubble, produce a disaster.
238
675708
3253
惡性通貨膨脹造成泡沬化, 造成災難。
11:18
And remember, we had experience with this.
239
678961
3301
請記得,這類災難我們經歷過,
11:22
We had seen significant losses,
240
682262
2288
我們遭受巨大的損失,
11:24
and we had experience of competent regulators
241
684550
3446
監管機關也阻止
11:27
in stopping it.
242
687996
1490
這類危機的發生。
11:29
Greenspan and Bernanke refused
243
689486
2896
葛林斯潘和柏克南拒絕
11:32
to use the authority under the statute
244
692382
2411
法律賦予他們的權力
11:34
to stop liar's loans.
245
694793
2317
去阻止詐欺貸款。
11:37
And this was a matter first of dogma.
246
697110
2564
首先,這是完全是其個人武斷的看法。
11:39
They're just horrifically opposed
247
699674
2851
他們只竭盡所能地
11:42
to anything regulatory.
248
702525
1819
反對任何監管措施。
11:44
But it is also the international competition in laxity,
249
704344
4716
國際之間的寬鬆政策競爭,
11:49
the race to the bottom
250
709060
1284
競相降低貨款的門檻,
11:50
between the United States and the United Kingdom,
251
710344
4035
尤其是美國和英國,
11:54
the city of London, in particular,
252
714379
1601
特別是倫敦,
11:55
and the city of London won that race to the bottom,
253
715980
2970
倫敦贏得最低貸款門檻的封號,
11:58
but it meant that all regulation in the West
254
718950
3852
這表示西方國家的監管制度,
12:02
was completely degraded
255
722802
2004
在這場誰是最鬆散監管的
12:04
in this stupid competition to be
256
724806
2084
愚蠢競賽中,
12:06
who could have the weakest regulation.
257
726890
2072
已徹底退化。
12:08
So that was the regulatory response.
258
728962
2050
這是監管機關的反應。
12:11
What about the response of the prosecutors
259
731012
3657
檢調單位對金融危機發生後
12:14
after the crisis,
260
734669
1735
的反應又是什麼呢?
12:16
after 11 trillion dollars in losses,
261
736404
4198
在 11 兆美金的損失之後,
12:20
after 10 million jobs lost,
262
740602
2040
喪失 1000 萬個工作之後,
12:22
a crisis in which the losses and the frauds
263
742642
3284
在這場損失和詐欺的規模,
12:25
were more than 70 times larger
264
745926
3455
比儲貸危機
12:29
than the savings and loan debacle?
265
749381
2304
還要大上 70 倍之後呢?
12:31
Well, in the savings and loan debacle,
266
751685
1891
好,在儲貸危機當中,
12:33
our agency that regulated savings and loans, OTS,
267
753576
3970
負責監管儲貸的機關, 也就是 OTS(儲蓄管理局),
12:37
made over 30,000 criminal referrals,
268
757546
4084
提出 30,000 個刑事訴訟,
12:41
produced over 1,000 felony convictions
269
761630
2636
超過 1,000 人被判以重罪,
12:44
just in cases designated as major,
270
764266
2674
這只是重大刑案部分,
12:46
and that understates the degree of prioritization,
271
766940
3138
嚴重的問題尚未浮上枱面,
12:50
because we worked with the FBI
272
770078
1796
因為我們與聯邦調查局 (FBI) 併肩合作
12:51
to create the list of the top 100 fraud schemes,
273
771874
4264
列出國內最惡劣的
12:56
the absolute worst of the worst, nationwide.
274
776138
3264
前 100 個詐欺名單。
12:59
Roughly 300 savings and loans involved,
275
779402
2784
大約有 300 件儲貸違法,
13:02
roughly 600 senior officials.
276
782186
3314
600 名高階主管涉案。
13:05
Virtually all of them were prosecuted.
277
785500
2340
他們幾乎全部被起訴。
13:07
We had a 90 percent conviction rate.
278
787840
2831
90% 被判有罪。
13:10
It's the greatest success against
279
790671
1830
這是有史以來,對抗白領犯罪
13:12
elite white collar criminals ever,
280
792501
2602
最大的勝利,
13:15
and it was because of this understanding
281
795103
2236
那是因為我們了解這類
13:17
of control fraud
282
797339
1335
詐欺的手法,
13:18
and the accounting control fraud mechanism.
283
798674
2511
以及會計管理詐欺機制。
13:21
Flash forward to the current crisis.
284
801185
3172
回到當前的金融危機。
13:24
The same agency, Office of Thrift Supervision,
285
804357
2573
同一個機構,儲蓄管理局,
13:26
which was supposed to regulate
286
806930
1630
應該要去監管
13:28
many of the largest makers of liar's loans
287
808560
2097
國內許多
13:30
in the country,
288
810657
1107
詐欺貸款的銀行,
13:31
has made, even today -- it no longer exists,
289
811764
4694
直至今天,雖然該局已經不存在了,
13:36
but as of a year ago,
290
816458
1808
但直到一年前,
13:38
it had made zero criminal referrals.
291
818266
4844
刑事訴訟案件掛零。
13:43
The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency,
292
823110
1696
應該要去監管國內各大銀行
13:44
which is supposed to regulate the largest national banks,
293
824806
2516
的金融管理局,
13:47
has made zero criminal referrals.
294
827322
2551
提出的刑事訴訟案件掛零。
13:49
The Fed appears to have made
295
829873
1626
美聯儲提出的
13:51
zero criminal referrals.
296
831499
1995
刑事訴訟案件也是掛零。
13:53
The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation
297
833494
1955
聯邦存款保險公司狡滑地
13:55
is smart enough to refuse to answer the question.
298
835449
4534
迴避了這個問題。
13:59
Without any guidance from the regulators,
299
839983
5535
沒有任何監管機關的協助,
14:05
there's no expertise in the FBI
300
845518
2882
聯邦調查局沒有相關專業知識,
14:08
to investigate complex frauds.
301
848400
2472
來調查如此複雜的詐欺案件。
14:10
It isn't simply that they've had
302
850872
1932
原因不是單純地
14:12
to reinvent the wheel
303
852804
1822
必須重新擬定
14:14
of how to do these prosecutions;
304
854626
1918
提出訴訟的策略;
14:16
they've forgotten that the wheel exists,
305
856544
4756
他們是忘了訴訟這件事,
14:21
and therefore, we have zero prosecutions,
306
861300
4098
所以造成這場危機的
14:25
and of course, zero convictions,
307
865398
2602
頂尖銀行詐欺高手,
14:28
of any of the elite bank frauds,
308
868000
2790
沒有人被起訴,
14:30
the Wall Street types,
309
870790
1537
華爾街的詐欺高手,
14:32
that drove this crisis.
310
872327
3132
當然也沒有人被定罪,
14:35
With no expertise coming from the regulators,
311
875459
2237
在監管機關沒有提供專業的協助下,
14:37
the FBI formed what it calls a partnership
312
877696
3091
聯邦調查局在 2007 年
14:40
with the Mortgage Bankers Association in 2007.
313
880787
4323
與抵押貸款協會合作。
14:45
The Mortgage Bankers Association
314
885110
1833
抵押貸款協會
14:46
is the trade association of the perps.
315
886943
3751
正是幹這些壞事的同業公會。
14:50
And the Mortgage Bankers Association
316
890694
2416
抵押貸款協會
14:53
set out, it had the audacity and the success
317
893110
3790
開始行動後,膽大妄為
並成功地欺瞞聯邦調查局。
14:56
to con the FBI.
318
896900
1678
14:58
It had created a supposed definition
319
898578
3077
為抵押貸款詐欺 下了一個似是而非的定義,
15:01
of mortgage fraud, in which, guess what,
320
901655
2875
你知道他們怎麼說嗎,
15:04
its members are always the victim
321
904530
1862
協會的成員是受害者,
15:06
and never the perpetrators.
322
906392
2017
沒有詐欺的行為。
15:08
And the FBI has bought this hook, line, sinker,
323
908409
4514
聯邦調查局不疑有他,
15:12
rod, reel and the boat they rode out in.
324
912923
4081
抵押貸款協會闖關成功。
15:17
And so the FBI,
325
917004
3056
至於聯邦調查局,
15:20
under the leadership of an attorney general
326
920060
3098
在非裔美籍的
15:23
who is African-American
327
923158
1174
司法部長,
15:24
and a president of the United States who is African-American,
328
924332
2462
及非裔美籍總統的領導下,
15:26
have adopted the Tea Party definition of the crisis,
329
926794
3500
採信茶黨對金融危機的說詞,
15:30
in which it is the first virgin crisis in history,
330
930294
3482
這是歷史上第一宗
15:33
conceived without sin in the executive ranks.
331
933776
3678
管理高層沒被定罪的 怪異金融危機事件。
15:37
And it's those oh-so-clever hairdressers
332
937454
3396
問題在那些聰明狡滑的小角色,
15:40
who were able to defraud the poor, pitiful banks,
333
940850
3218
他們能夠欺騙毫無金融經驗,
15:44
who lack any financial sophistication.
334
944068
2384
可憐的銀行業者,
15:46
It is the silliest story you can conceive of,
335
946452
3358
這是你能想像的最愚蠢說法,
15:49
and so they go and they prosecute the hairdressers,
336
949810
3901
所以他們起訴那些小角色,
15:53
and they leave the banksters alone entirely.
337
953711
4179
銀行高層毫髮未傷。
15:57
And so, while lions are roaming the campsite,
338
957890
2910
因此,那些詐欺者仍然逍遙法外,
16:00
the FBI is chasing mice.
339
960800
3210
聯邦調查局只是追逐小老鼠, 而不去抓大獅子。
16:04
What do we need to do?
340
964010
1430
我們該怎麼做?
16:05
What can we do in all of this?
341
965440
2504
面對這一切,我們該做些什麼?
16:07
We need to change the perverse incentive structures
342
967944
3819
我們必須改變不正當的激勵機制,
16:11
that produce these recurrent epidemics
343
971763
2996
正是因為這種機制
讓大規模會計管理詐欺 的事件一再發生,
16:14
of accounting control fraud
344
974759
1329
16:16
that are driving our crises.
345
976088
2014
因而造成財務危機。
16:18
So we have to first get rid
346
978102
2888
所以首先必需排除
16:20
of the systemically dangerous institutions.
347
980990
2488
具有系統危險性的金融機構。
16:23
These are the so-called too-big-to-fail institutions.
348
983478
3485
是所謂的「大到不能倒」的金融機構,
16:26
We need to shrink them to the point,
349
986963
2142
在未來的 5 年當中,
16:29
within the next five years,
350
989105
1595
我們必須縮小它們的規模,
16:30
that they no longer pose a systemic risk.
351
990700
2735
使它們不再有系統性風險。
16:33
Right now, they are ticking time bombs
352
993435
2137
現在它們是定時炸彈,
16:35
that will cause a global crisis
353
995572
3343
一旦其中一家銀行倒閉,
16:38
as soon as the next one fails --
354
998915
2349
將引發全球性金融危機。
16:41
not if, when.
355
1001264
1796
不是會不會倒, 而是何時會倒的問題。
16:43
Second thing we need to do is completely reform
356
1003060
2911
第二:必須徹底改革
16:45
modern executive and professional compensation,
357
1005971
2992
當今高階管理人員的酬薪制度,
16:48
which is what they use to suborn the appraisers.
358
1008963
4343
他們以高薪來收買估價師。
16:53
Remember, they were pressuring the appraisers
359
1013306
1888
請記住,他們透過酬薪制度
16:55
through the compensation system,
360
1015194
1782
對估價師施壓,
16:56
trying to produce what we call a Gresham's dynamic,
361
1016976
2662
試圖產生所謂的 格萊欣 (Gresham) 效應,
16:59
in which bad ethics drives good ethics
362
1019638
2579
在市場上
17:02
out of the marketplace.
363
1022217
1366
以劣幣趨逐良幣。
17:03
And they largely succeeded,
364
1023583
1936
他們獲得大勝利,
17:05
which is how the fraud became endemic.
365
1025519
2883
這是為何詐欺行為 像流行病般蔓延開來,
17:08
And the third thing that we need to do
366
1028402
2698
第三件們必需做的事是:
17:11
is deal with what we call the three D's:
367
1031100
2638
去處理我們所謂的 3D:
17:13
deregulation, desupervision,
368
1033738
2581
放寬管制 (Deregulation), 放寬監督 (Desupervision),
17:16
and the de facto decriminalization.
369
1036319
4021
事實上的合法化 (De Facto Decriminalization )。
17:20
Because we can make
370
1040340
2097
我們能改革以上三件事,
17:22
all three of these changes, and if we do so,
371
1042437
3674
如果我們這麼做,
17:26
we can dramatically reduce
372
1046111
2809
就能夠大幅減少
17:28
how often we have a crisis
373
1048920
2192
危機發生的頻率
17:31
and how severe those crises are.
374
1051112
3627
以及危機發生後的危害程度。
17:34
That is not simply critical to our economy.
375
1054739
2981
這不僅對經濟而言相當重要。
17:37
You can see what these crises do to inequality
376
1057720
3426
你可以看出危機造成貧富不均
17:41
and what they do to our democracy.
377
1061146
2320
以及對民主制度的影響。
17:43
They have produced crony capitalism,
378
1063466
2744
它造成美國式的
17:46
American-style,
379
1066210
1382
親信資本主義,
17:47
in which the largest financial institutions
380
1067592
3278
其中最大型的金融機構
17:50
are the leading financial donors of both parties,
381
1070870
3644
是兩黨的主要金主,
17:54
and that's the reason why
382
1074514
1920
這就是為何
17:56
even after this crisis,
383
1076434
3975
比儲貸危機還嚴重 70 倍
18:00
70 times larger than the savings and loan crisis,
384
1080409
5285
的危機發生後,
18:05
we have no meaningful reforms
385
1085694
2854
除了取締詐欺性貸款外,
18:08
in any of the three areas that I've talked about,
386
1088548
3374
以上我提到的 3 個層面
18:11
other than banning liar's loans,
387
1091922
1792
依然沒有實際上的改革。
18:13
which is good,
388
1093714
1076
這是好事,
18:14
but that's just one form of ammunition
389
1094790
2424
詐欺性貸款只是
18:17
for this fraud weapon.
390
1097214
1396
其中一種武器。
18:18
There are many forms of ammunition they can use.
391
1098610
3981
他們可使用的武器相當多。
18:22
That's why we need to learn
392
1102591
1751
這就是為何我們需要學習
18:24
what the bankers have learned:
393
1104342
2112
銀行家們的手法:
18:26
the recipe for the best way to rob a bank,
394
1106454
3423
搶銀行的最佳秘訣,
18:29
so that we can stop that recipe,
395
1109877
2865
這樣我們才能遏止這種做法,
18:32
because our legislators,
396
1112742
1762
因為我們的立法者,
18:34
who are dependent on political contributions,
397
1114504
2690
仰賴政治獻金,
18:37
will not do it on their own.
398
1117194
2194
他們不會主動採取行動。
18:39
Thank you very much.
399
1119388
2070
謝謝各位。
18:41
(Applause)
400
1121458
2127
(掌聲)
關於本網站

本網站將向您介紹對學習英語有用的 YouTube 視頻。 您將看到來自世界各地的一流教師教授的英語課程。 雙擊每個視頻頁面上顯示的英文字幕,從那裡播放視頻。 字幕與視頻播放同步滾動。 如果您有任何意見或要求,請使用此聯繫表與我們聯繫。

https://forms.gle/WvT1wiN1qDtmnspy7


This website was created in October 2020 and last updated on June 12, 2025.

It is now archived and preserved as an English learning resource.

Some information may be out of date.

隱私政策

eng.lish.video

Developer's Blog