How to rob a bank (from the inside, that is) | William Black

146,459 views ・ 2014-05-12

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譯者: Yamei Huang 審譯者: Adrienne Lin
00:12
So today's top chef class is in how to rob a bank,
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今天的頂尖主廚要教大家 如何搶銀行,
00:16
and it's clear that the general public needs guidance,
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很顯然一般民眾需要一些指導,
00:20
because the average bank robbery nets
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因為銀行搶案
00:23
only 7,500 dollars.
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平均只搶到美金 7,500 元。
00:26
Rank amateurs who know nothing
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這完全是不懂得如何做假帳
00:28
about how to cook the books.
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業餘等級的水準。
00:30
The folks who know, of course,
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當然,那些內行的人,
00:32
run our largest banks,
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都是大銀行的高層,
00:34
and in the last go-around,
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上一次他們一出手,
00:36
they cost us over 11 trillion dollars.
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我們就損失 11 兆美元。
00:41
That's what 11 trillion looks like.
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11 兆美元看起來像這樣 。
00:43
That's how many zeros?
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這個金額有幾個零?
00:45
And cost us over 10 million jobs as well.
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也讓我們損失超過 1000 萬個 工作機會。
00:48
So our task is to educate ourselves
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所以當務之急是自我教育,
00:51
so that we can understand
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以了解
00:52
why we have these recurrent,
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為何金融危機一再發生,
00:54
intensifying financial crises,
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而且變本加厲,
00:56
and how we can prevent them in the future.
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以及如何防範於未來。
01:00
And the answer to that is
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答案就是
01:02
that we have to stop epidemics of control fraud.
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我們必須杜絶大規模 管理詐欺的行為,
01:06
Control fraud is what happens
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管理詐欺是指
01:08
when the people who control,
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管理者,
01:10
typically a CEO,
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尤其是執行長,
01:12
a seemingly legitimate entity,
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管理一個貌似合法的機構時,
01:14
use it as a weapon to defraud.
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把這個機構當成詐騙的武器。
01:17
And these are the weapons of mass destruction
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這是金融界裡
01:20
in the financial world.
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最具殺傷力的武器。
01:22
They also follow in finance a particular strategy,
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在金融界裡, 他們也採用一種特定的策略,
01:27
because the weapon of choice in finance
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因為他們在財務上所用的武器
01:30
is accounting,
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就是會計方法,
01:31
and there is a recipe for accounting
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以會計方法管理詐欺行為
01:35
control fraud, and how it occurs.
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及其發生有個秘訣,
01:37
And we discovered this recipe
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我們在很不尋常的情況下
01:39
in quite an odd way that I'll come back to in a moment.
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發現了這個秘訣, 我稍後再談。
01:42
First ingredient in the recipe: grow like crazy;
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第一個秘訣是: 瘋狂地擴張公司資本;
01:46
second, by making or buying really crappy loans,
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第二個秘訣是: 放出或購買高風險貸款,
01:51
but loans that are made at a very high interest rate
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這種貸款的利率
01:54
or yield;
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或收益非常高;
01:56
three, while employing extreme leverage --
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第三個秘訣是:利用高度財務槓桿
01:58
that just means a lot of debt --
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這意味著對資產而言
01:59
compared to your equity;
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有著很大比率的負債;
02:01
and four, while providing only trivial loss reserves
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第四個秘訣是:提供極少的準備金
02:05
against the inevitable losses.
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去因應呆帳損失。
02:07
If you follow those four simple steps,
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如果你遵循這四個簡單的步驟,
02:11
and any bank can follow them,
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任何銀行都做得到,
02:13
then you are mathematically guaranteed
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保證一定會發生
02:15
to have three things occur.
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以下三種情況,
02:18
The first thing is
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第一是:
02:19
you will report record bank profits --
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銀行有很高的帳面利潤
02:23
not just high, record.
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不只是高,而是史無前例地高。
02:25
Two, the CEO will immediately be made incredibly wealthy
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第二:以目前管理階層的薪資結構,
02:30
by modern executive compensation.
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執行長將一夕致富。
02:33
And three, farther down the road,
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第三:長久以來,
02:36
the bank will suffer catastrophic losses
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銀行將蒙受巨大的損失
02:39
and will fail unless it is bailed out.
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除非獲得金援,不然就會倒閉。
02:42
And that's a hint as to how
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了解事情的來龍去脈後,
02:46
we discovered this recipe,
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我們才發現了這個秘訣,
02:48
because we discovered it through an autopsy process.
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這是經過我們抽絲剝繭分析出的。
02:52
During the savings and loan debacle in 1984,
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1984 年貸款危機期間,
02:57
we looked at every single failure,
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我們研究每一個破產案例,
02:59
and we looked for common characteristics,
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尋找其中的共同點,
03:02
and we discovered this recipe was common
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我們發現這個秘訣
普遍存在於每一個詐欺案例中。
03:06
to each of these frauds.
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03:08
In other words, a coroner could find these things
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換句話說, 稽查員能夠查到這些事項
03:11
because this is a fatal recipe
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因為這致命秘訣
03:14
that will destroy the banks
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不但摧毀銀行
03:16
as well as the economy.
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也會摧毀經濟。
03:18
And it also turns out to be precisely
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結果它正是
03:21
what could have stopped this crisis,
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可以阻止這類危機的方法,
03:23
the one that cost us 11 trillion dollars
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這危機讓我們損失 11 兆美元,
03:26
just in the household sector,
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這只是住房領域(房貸部門)而已,
03:28
that cost us 10 million jobs,
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也讓我們失去 1000 萬個 工作機會,
03:30
was the easiest financial crisis by far
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這是目前為止最輕而易舉
03:33
to have avoided completely
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完全解決金融危機,
03:36
if we had simply learned the lessons
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只要我們從大規模管理詐欺中
03:38
of epidemics of control fraud,
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記取教訓,
03:40
particularly using this recipe.
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善加運用這個秘訣。
03:43
So let's go to this crisis,
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接下來我們開始討論這類危機,
03:45
and the two huge epidemics
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二種大規模貸款詐欺
03:47
of loan origination fraud that drove the crisis --
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導致發生危機的來源是:
03:51
appraisal fraud and liar's loans --
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估價詐欺和欺騙性貸款。
03:54
and what we're going to see
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我們將發現:
03:55
in looking at both of these is
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第一:對於這些詐欺行為
03:58
we got warnings that were incredibly early
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在相當早之前
04:01
about these frauds.
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就會獲得警訊。
04:03
We got warnings that we could have taken advantage of easily,
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第二:藉由這些警訊 我們可以輕易採取預防措施,
04:07
because back in the savings and loan debacle,
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早在儲貨危機發生時,
04:09
we had figured out how to respond
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我們就知道如何因應
04:12
and prevent these crises.
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以避免發生這些危機。
04:14
And three, the warnings were unambiguous.
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第三:這些警訊相當明確。
04:17
They were obvious that what was going on
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清楚顯示
04:20
was an epidemic of accounting control fraud building up.
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大規模的會計管理詐欺行為 正在擴大。
04:25
Let's take appraisal fraud first.
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我們先來看估價詐欺。
04:27
This is simply where you inflate the value
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簡單地說,估價詐欺就是
04:29
of the home that is being pledged
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誇大用來擔保貸款
04:32
as security for the loan.
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的房屋價值。
04:35
In 2000, the year 2000,
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在 2000 年,
04:38
that is over a year before Enron fails, by the way,
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這是安隆破產的一年多前,
04:43
the honest appraisers got together a formal petition
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正直的估價師共同擬定一份請願書
04:47
begging the federal government to act,
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要求聯邦政府採取措施,
04:50
and the industry to act,
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及相關業者採取措施,
04:52
to stop this epidemic of appraisal fraud.
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去阻止大規模的估價詐欺行為。
04:56
And the appraisers explained how it was occurring,
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估價師解釋這類詐欺行為如何發生,
04:59
that banks were demanding that appraisers
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銀行要求估價師
05:03
inflate the appraisal,
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誇大其估價,
05:04
and that if the appraisers refused to do so,
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如果估價師拒絕配合,
05:08
they, the banks, would blacklist
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銀行就會將這些正直的估價師
05:12
honest appraisers
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列入黑名單。
05:14
and refuse to use them.
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不再僱用他們。
05:16
Now, we've seen this before
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在儲貸危機期間
05:19
in the savings and loan debacle,
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我們已經看過這種情形,
05:20
and we know that this kind of fraud
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我們知道這種詐欺行為
05:22
can only originate from the lenders,
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只可能來自貸方,
05:25
and that no honest lender would ever inflate
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不誠實的貸方
05:28
the appraisal,
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想要為估價灌水,
05:29
because it's the great protection against loss.
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因為這是防止損失的最好方法。
05:32
So this was an incredibly early warning, 2000.
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所以,這個預警訊號 早在 2000 年就出現,
05:36
It was something we'd seen before,
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這是我們之前看過,
05:38
and it was completely unambiguous.
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且是相當明確的警訊。
05:40
This was an epidemic of accounting control fraud
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這些大規模會計管理詐欺行為
05:44
led by the banks.
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是由銀行所主導的。
05:45
What about liar's loans?
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接下來,什麼是詐欺貸款呢?
05:47
Well, that warning actually comes earlier.
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實際上,這個警訊出現的更早。
05:51
The savings and loan debacle is basically
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儲貨危機基本上是發生於
05:54
the early 1980s through 1993,
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1980 年代的早期 一直到 1993 年,
05:57
and in the midst of fighting that wave
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在打擊會計管理詐欺
06:00
of accounting control fraud,
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的行動中,
06:02
in 1990, we found that a second front
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在 1990 年,我們發現
出現第二波的詐欺行為。
06:07
of fraud was being started.
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06:09
And like all good financial frauds in America,
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如同美國所有經過精心策畫 的金融詐欺,
06:11
it began in Orange County, California.
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起源於加州橘縣,
06:15
And we happened to be the regional regulators for it.
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我們恰巧是當地的監管單位
06:18
And our examiners said,
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我們的稽查人員說,
06:20
they are making loans without even checking
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銀行根本沒有查核
06:23
what the borrower's income is.
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借款人的收入情況就放款。
06:25
This is insane, it has to lead to massive losses,
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真是太離譜了, 必定會導致巨大的損失,
06:30
and it only makes sense for entities engaged
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這種情況只有金融機構
06:34
in these accounting control frauds.
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參與會計管理詐欺。
06:36
And we said, yeah, you're absolutely right,
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我們對稽核人員說,你們說的對,
06:38
and we drove those liar's loans
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於 1990 及 1991 年
06:41
out of the industry in 1990 and 1991,
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我們將詐欺借款逐出金融業,
06:46
but we could only deal with the industry
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但是,我們只能處理
06:48
we had jurisdiction over,
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權限範圍內的業務,
06:50
which was savings and loans,
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也就是儲蓄和貸款業務,
06:52
and so the biggest and the baddest of the frauds,
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其中最大、最惡劣的銀行-
06:55
Long Beach Savings, voluntarily gave up
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長灘儲貸銀行,主動放棄此業務,
06:58
its federal savings and loan charter,
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主動放棄聯邦政府頒發的 儲蓄和借貸執照,
07:01
gave up federal deposit insurance,
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放棄聯邦銀行的存款保險,
07:03
converted to become a mortgage bank
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變成一家抵押銀行,
07:06
for the sole purpose of escaping our jurisdiction,
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只為了逃避我們的監管,
07:09
and changed its name to Ameriquest,
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並把公司名稱改為 Ameriquest,
07:11
and became the most notorious
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是早期欺騙性借貸詐欺行為中
07:13
of the liar's loans frauds early on,
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最為惡名昭彰的銀行。
07:17
and to add to that,
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此外,
07:18
they deliberately predated upon minorities.
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他們還故意欺騙少數民族。
07:23
So we knew again about this crisis.
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所以我們了解這類詐欺性貸款危機。
07:27
We'd seen it before. We'd stopped it before.
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我們之前看過,也阻止過。
07:31
We had incredibly early warnings of it,
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在相當早之前就接獲警訊,
07:34
and it was absolutely unambiguous
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此警訊相當明確
07:36
that no honest lender would make loans in this fashion.
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正直的貸方絶不會做這種放款。
07:40
So let's take a look at the reaction
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我們看一下銀行業,
07:43
of the industry and the regulators
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監管機關,
07:46
and the prosecutors to these clear
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檢調單位的反應
07:48
early warnings that could have prevented the crisis.
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就能夠及早獲得警訊, 預防危機的發生。
07:53
Start with the industry.
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先從金融業開始,
07:55
The industry responded between 2003 and 2006
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從 2003 年到 2006 年,
08:01
by increasing liar's loans
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金融業的詐騙性貸款業務
08:04
by over 500 percent.
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增加超過 500%。
08:09
These were the loans
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這些貸款
08:11
that hyperinflated the bubble
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過度膨漲,泡沬化,
08:12
and produced the economic crisis.
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造成經濟危機。
08:16
By 2006, half of all the loans called subprime
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截至 2006 年,半數所謂的次級貸款
08:21
were also liar's loans.
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就是詐欺性貸款。
08:23
They're not mutually exclusive, it's just that together,
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這兩者非獨立運作,而是互相影響,
08:26
they're the most toxic combination
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形成你所能想像的
08:29
you can possibly imagine.
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致命組合。
08:31
By 2006, 40 percent of all the loans
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於 2006 年,有 40% 的貸款,
08:34
made that year, all the home loans made that year,
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所申請的房屋貸款
08:37
were liar's loans,
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是屬於詐欺性貸款,
08:40
40 percent.
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高達 40%!
08:41
And this is despite a warning
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儘管銀行業的
08:44
from the industry's own antifraud experts
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反詐欺專家警告
08:47
that said that these loans were an open invitation
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這些詐欺性貸款
08:50
to fraudsters,
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有如引狼入室,
08:52
and that they had a fraud incidence
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詐騙率
08:54
of 90 percent,
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達到 90%,
08:56
nine zero.
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是九十喔。
08:59
In response to that, the industry
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金融業的反應是,
09:02
first started calling these loans liar's loans,
188
542728
5048
首先:一開始稱這種貸款 為詐欺性貸款,
09:07
which lacks a certain subtlety,
189
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3569
這個稱呼不是很好,
09:11
and second, massively increased them,
190
551345
3050
第二是:大幅地增加這種貸款,
09:14
and no government regulator ever
191
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3261
政府監管機關沒有
09:17
required or encouraged any lender
192
557656
3690
要求或鼓勵貸方
09:21
to make a liar's loan
193
561346
1296
去做詐騙性貸款
09:22
or anyone to purchase a liar's loan,
194
562642
2687
或買入詐騙性貸款,
09:25
and that explicitly includes Fannie and Freddie.
195
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3170
當然包括房利美和房地美。
09:28
This came from the lenders
196
568499
2122
這詐欺性貸款的手法
09:30
because of the fraud recipe.
197
570621
3169
歸咎於貸方的問題。
09:33
What happened to appraisal fraud?
198
573790
2434
估價詐欺又是怎麼一回事呢?
09:36
It expanded remarkably as well.
199
576224
3136
同樣也是非常快速地膨漲起來。
09:39
By 2007, when a survey of appraisers was done,
200
579360
4397
2007 年, 有一份估價師的調查報告,
09:43
90 percent of appraisers reported
201
583757
2701
90% 的估價師表示,
09:46
that they had been subject to coercion
202
586458
2440
貸方曾向他們施壓
09:48
from the lenders trying to get them
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588898
2492
要求將估價
09:51
to inflate an appraisal.
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591390
1570
灌水。
09:52
In other words, both forms of fraud
205
592960
2990
換句話說,這兩種型態的詐欺,
09:55
became absolutely endemic and normal,
206
595950
3774
已變成通病和常態,
09:59
and this is what drove the bubble.
207
599724
2229
這是造成經濟泡沫化的原因。
10:01
What happened in the governmental sector?
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601953
2192
政府單位又是怎麼一回事?
10:04
Well, the government, as I told you,
209
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2604
至於政府,就如我所說的,
10:06
when we were the savings and loan regulators,
210
606749
2716
我們在執行儲貸監管業務時,
10:09
we could only deal with our industry,
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609465
2678
只能處理我們負責的業務,
10:12
and if people gave up their federal deposit insurance,
212
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2438
如果貸方放棄聯邦政府存款保險
10:14
we couldn't do anything to them.
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2263
我們也束手無策。
10:16
Congress, it may strike you as impossible,
214
616844
3329
至於國會議員,或許你不相信,
10:20
but actually did something intelligent in 1994,
215
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3248
事實上,他們在 1994 年 做了一點聰明事,
10:23
and passed the Home Ownership and Equity Protection Act
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3553
通過了「房屋所有權和權益保護法」
10:26
that gave the Fed, and only the Federal Reserve,
217
626974
3253
賦予美國聯邦儲備局(美聯儲), 只限美聯儲
10:30
the explicit, statutory authority to ban liar's loans
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630227
4027
明確的法定權力,禁止貸款人的
10:34
by every lender,
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634254
2106
詐欺貸款業務,
10:36
whether or not they had federal deposit insurance.
220
636360
2998
無論貸款人是否擁有聯邦存款保險,
10:39
So what did Ben Bernanke and Alan Greenspan,
221
639358
3535
當柏南奇和葛林斯潘
10:42
as chairs of the Fed, do
222
642893
1967
任職美聯儲主席時, 是採取何種措施
10:44
when they got these warnings
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644860
1906
以回應以下的警訊:
10:46
that these were massively fraudulent loans
224
646766
3010
大規模的詐欺貸款
10:49
and that they were being sold to the secondary market?
225
649776
3354
以及把這些貸款賣給次級市場?
10:53
Remember, there's no fraud exorcist.
226
653130
2220
請記住,沒有人可以讓這些詐欺消失。
10:55
Once it starts out a fraudulent loan,
227
655350
2048
一旦發生詐欺貸款,
10:57
it can only be sold to the secondary market
228
657398
2312
只能透過更多的詐欺貸款
10:59
through more frauds,
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659710
1196
轉賣給次級市場,
11:00
lying about the reps and warrantees,
230
660906
2548
捏造財務報告和保證條款,
11:03
and then those people are going to produce
231
663454
1608
然後再包裝成
11:05
mortgage-backed securities
232
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1428
不動產抵押貸款證券
11:06
and exotic derivatives
233
666490
1268
和衍生性金融商品
11:07
which are also going to be supposedly backed
234
667758
3222
而為這些產品擔保的是
11:10
by those fraudulent loans.
235
670980
1723
詐欺貸款。
11:12
So the fraud is going to progress
236
672703
1541
所以詐欺貸款
11:14
through the entire system,
237
674244
1464
貫穿整個金融借貸系統,
11:15
hyperinflate the bubble, produce a disaster.
238
675708
3253
惡性通貨膨脹造成泡沬化, 造成災難。
11:18
And remember, we had experience with this.
239
678961
3301
請記得,這類災難我們經歷過,
11:22
We had seen significant losses,
240
682262
2288
我們遭受巨大的損失,
11:24
and we had experience of competent regulators
241
684550
3446
監管機關也阻止
11:27
in stopping it.
242
687996
1490
這類危機的發生。
11:29
Greenspan and Bernanke refused
243
689486
2896
葛林斯潘和柏克南拒絕
11:32
to use the authority under the statute
244
692382
2411
法律賦予他們的權力
11:34
to stop liar's loans.
245
694793
2317
去阻止詐欺貸款。
11:37
And this was a matter first of dogma.
246
697110
2564
首先,這是完全是其個人武斷的看法。
11:39
They're just horrifically opposed
247
699674
2851
他們只竭盡所能地
11:42
to anything regulatory.
248
702525
1819
反對任何監管措施。
11:44
But it is also the international competition in laxity,
249
704344
4716
國際之間的寬鬆政策競爭,
11:49
the race to the bottom
250
709060
1284
競相降低貨款的門檻,
11:50
between the United States and the United Kingdom,
251
710344
4035
尤其是美國和英國,
11:54
the city of London, in particular,
252
714379
1601
特別是倫敦,
11:55
and the city of London won that race to the bottom,
253
715980
2970
倫敦贏得最低貸款門檻的封號,
11:58
but it meant that all regulation in the West
254
718950
3852
這表示西方國家的監管制度,
12:02
was completely degraded
255
722802
2004
在這場誰是最鬆散監管的
12:04
in this stupid competition to be
256
724806
2084
愚蠢競賽中,
12:06
who could have the weakest regulation.
257
726890
2072
已徹底退化。
12:08
So that was the regulatory response.
258
728962
2050
這是監管機關的反應。
12:11
What about the response of the prosecutors
259
731012
3657
檢調單位對金融危機發生後
12:14
after the crisis,
260
734669
1735
的反應又是什麼呢?
12:16
after 11 trillion dollars in losses,
261
736404
4198
在 11 兆美金的損失之後,
12:20
after 10 million jobs lost,
262
740602
2040
喪失 1000 萬個工作之後,
12:22
a crisis in which the losses and the frauds
263
742642
3284
在這場損失和詐欺的規模,
12:25
were more than 70 times larger
264
745926
3455
比儲貸危機
12:29
than the savings and loan debacle?
265
749381
2304
還要大上 70 倍之後呢?
12:31
Well, in the savings and loan debacle,
266
751685
1891
好,在儲貸危機當中,
12:33
our agency that regulated savings and loans, OTS,
267
753576
3970
負責監管儲貸的機關, 也就是 OTS(儲蓄管理局),
12:37
made over 30,000 criminal referrals,
268
757546
4084
提出 30,000 個刑事訴訟,
12:41
produced over 1,000 felony convictions
269
761630
2636
超過 1,000 人被判以重罪,
12:44
just in cases designated as major,
270
764266
2674
這只是重大刑案部分,
12:46
and that understates the degree of prioritization,
271
766940
3138
嚴重的問題尚未浮上枱面,
12:50
because we worked with the FBI
272
770078
1796
因為我們與聯邦調查局 (FBI) 併肩合作
12:51
to create the list of the top 100 fraud schemes,
273
771874
4264
列出國內最惡劣的
12:56
the absolute worst of the worst, nationwide.
274
776138
3264
前 100 個詐欺名單。
12:59
Roughly 300 savings and loans involved,
275
779402
2784
大約有 300 件儲貸違法,
13:02
roughly 600 senior officials.
276
782186
3314
600 名高階主管涉案。
13:05
Virtually all of them were prosecuted.
277
785500
2340
他們幾乎全部被起訴。
13:07
We had a 90 percent conviction rate.
278
787840
2831
90% 被判有罪。
13:10
It's the greatest success against
279
790671
1830
這是有史以來,對抗白領犯罪
13:12
elite white collar criminals ever,
280
792501
2602
最大的勝利,
13:15
and it was because of this understanding
281
795103
2236
那是因為我們了解這類
13:17
of control fraud
282
797339
1335
詐欺的手法,
13:18
and the accounting control fraud mechanism.
283
798674
2511
以及會計管理詐欺機制。
13:21
Flash forward to the current crisis.
284
801185
3172
回到當前的金融危機。
13:24
The same agency, Office of Thrift Supervision,
285
804357
2573
同一個機構,儲蓄管理局,
13:26
which was supposed to regulate
286
806930
1630
應該要去監管
13:28
many of the largest makers of liar's loans
287
808560
2097
國內許多
13:30
in the country,
288
810657
1107
詐欺貸款的銀行,
13:31
has made, even today -- it no longer exists,
289
811764
4694
直至今天,雖然該局已經不存在了,
13:36
but as of a year ago,
290
816458
1808
但直到一年前,
13:38
it had made zero criminal referrals.
291
818266
4844
刑事訴訟案件掛零。
13:43
The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency,
292
823110
1696
應該要去監管國內各大銀行
13:44
which is supposed to regulate the largest national banks,
293
824806
2516
的金融管理局,
13:47
has made zero criminal referrals.
294
827322
2551
提出的刑事訴訟案件掛零。
13:49
The Fed appears to have made
295
829873
1626
美聯儲提出的
13:51
zero criminal referrals.
296
831499
1995
刑事訴訟案件也是掛零。
13:53
The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation
297
833494
1955
聯邦存款保險公司狡滑地
13:55
is smart enough to refuse to answer the question.
298
835449
4534
迴避了這個問題。
13:59
Without any guidance from the regulators,
299
839983
5535
沒有任何監管機關的協助,
14:05
there's no expertise in the FBI
300
845518
2882
聯邦調查局沒有相關專業知識,
14:08
to investigate complex frauds.
301
848400
2472
來調查如此複雜的詐欺案件。
14:10
It isn't simply that they've had
302
850872
1932
原因不是單純地
14:12
to reinvent the wheel
303
852804
1822
必須重新擬定
14:14
of how to do these prosecutions;
304
854626
1918
提出訴訟的策略;
14:16
they've forgotten that the wheel exists,
305
856544
4756
他們是忘了訴訟這件事,
14:21
and therefore, we have zero prosecutions,
306
861300
4098
所以造成這場危機的
14:25
and of course, zero convictions,
307
865398
2602
頂尖銀行詐欺高手,
14:28
of any of the elite bank frauds,
308
868000
2790
沒有人被起訴,
14:30
the Wall Street types,
309
870790
1537
華爾街的詐欺高手,
14:32
that drove this crisis.
310
872327
3132
當然也沒有人被定罪,
14:35
With no expertise coming from the regulators,
311
875459
2237
在監管機關沒有提供專業的協助下,
14:37
the FBI formed what it calls a partnership
312
877696
3091
聯邦調查局在 2007 年
14:40
with the Mortgage Bankers Association in 2007.
313
880787
4323
與抵押貸款協會合作。
14:45
The Mortgage Bankers Association
314
885110
1833
抵押貸款協會
14:46
is the trade association of the perps.
315
886943
3751
正是幹這些壞事的同業公會。
14:50
And the Mortgage Bankers Association
316
890694
2416
抵押貸款協會
14:53
set out, it had the audacity and the success
317
893110
3790
開始行動後,膽大妄為
並成功地欺瞞聯邦調查局。
14:56
to con the FBI.
318
896900
1678
14:58
It had created a supposed definition
319
898578
3077
為抵押貸款詐欺 下了一個似是而非的定義,
15:01
of mortgage fraud, in which, guess what,
320
901655
2875
你知道他們怎麼說嗎,
15:04
its members are always the victim
321
904530
1862
協會的成員是受害者,
15:06
and never the perpetrators.
322
906392
2017
沒有詐欺的行為。
15:08
And the FBI has bought this hook, line, sinker,
323
908409
4514
聯邦調查局不疑有他,
15:12
rod, reel and the boat they rode out in.
324
912923
4081
抵押貸款協會闖關成功。
15:17
And so the FBI,
325
917004
3056
至於聯邦調查局,
15:20
under the leadership of an attorney general
326
920060
3098
在非裔美籍的
15:23
who is African-American
327
923158
1174
司法部長,
15:24
and a president of the United States who is African-American,
328
924332
2462
及非裔美籍總統的領導下,
15:26
have adopted the Tea Party definition of the crisis,
329
926794
3500
採信茶黨對金融危機的說詞,
15:30
in which it is the first virgin crisis in history,
330
930294
3482
這是歷史上第一宗
15:33
conceived without sin in the executive ranks.
331
933776
3678
管理高層沒被定罪的 怪異金融危機事件。
15:37
And it's those oh-so-clever hairdressers
332
937454
3396
問題在那些聰明狡滑的小角色,
15:40
who were able to defraud the poor, pitiful banks,
333
940850
3218
他們能夠欺騙毫無金融經驗,
15:44
who lack any financial sophistication.
334
944068
2384
可憐的銀行業者,
15:46
It is the silliest story you can conceive of,
335
946452
3358
這是你能想像的最愚蠢說法,
15:49
and so they go and they prosecute the hairdressers,
336
949810
3901
所以他們起訴那些小角色,
15:53
and they leave the banksters alone entirely.
337
953711
4179
銀行高層毫髮未傷。
15:57
And so, while lions are roaming the campsite,
338
957890
2910
因此,那些詐欺者仍然逍遙法外,
16:00
the FBI is chasing mice.
339
960800
3210
聯邦調查局只是追逐小老鼠, 而不去抓大獅子。
16:04
What do we need to do?
340
964010
1430
我們該怎麼做?
16:05
What can we do in all of this?
341
965440
2504
面對這一切,我們該做些什麼?
16:07
We need to change the perverse incentive structures
342
967944
3819
我們必須改變不正當的激勵機制,
16:11
that produce these recurrent epidemics
343
971763
2996
正是因為這種機制
讓大規模會計管理詐欺 的事件一再發生,
16:14
of accounting control fraud
344
974759
1329
16:16
that are driving our crises.
345
976088
2014
因而造成財務危機。
16:18
So we have to first get rid
346
978102
2888
所以首先必需排除
16:20
of the systemically dangerous institutions.
347
980990
2488
具有系統危險性的金融機構。
16:23
These are the so-called too-big-to-fail institutions.
348
983478
3485
是所謂的「大到不能倒」的金融機構,
16:26
We need to shrink them to the point,
349
986963
2142
在未來的 5 年當中,
16:29
within the next five years,
350
989105
1595
我們必須縮小它們的規模,
16:30
that they no longer pose a systemic risk.
351
990700
2735
使它們不再有系統性風險。
16:33
Right now, they are ticking time bombs
352
993435
2137
現在它們是定時炸彈,
16:35
that will cause a global crisis
353
995572
3343
一旦其中一家銀行倒閉,
16:38
as soon as the next one fails --
354
998915
2349
將引發全球性金融危機。
16:41
not if, when.
355
1001264
1796
不是會不會倒, 而是何時會倒的問題。
16:43
Second thing we need to do is completely reform
356
1003060
2911
第二:必須徹底改革
16:45
modern executive and professional compensation,
357
1005971
2992
當今高階管理人員的酬薪制度,
16:48
which is what they use to suborn the appraisers.
358
1008963
4343
他們以高薪來收買估價師。
16:53
Remember, they were pressuring the appraisers
359
1013306
1888
請記住,他們透過酬薪制度
16:55
through the compensation system,
360
1015194
1782
對估價師施壓,
16:56
trying to produce what we call a Gresham's dynamic,
361
1016976
2662
試圖產生所謂的 格萊欣 (Gresham) 效應,
16:59
in which bad ethics drives good ethics
362
1019638
2579
在市場上
17:02
out of the marketplace.
363
1022217
1366
以劣幣趨逐良幣。
17:03
And they largely succeeded,
364
1023583
1936
他們獲得大勝利,
17:05
which is how the fraud became endemic.
365
1025519
2883
這是為何詐欺行為 像流行病般蔓延開來,
17:08
And the third thing that we need to do
366
1028402
2698
第三件們必需做的事是:
17:11
is deal with what we call the three D's:
367
1031100
2638
去處理我們所謂的 3D:
17:13
deregulation, desupervision,
368
1033738
2581
放寬管制 (Deregulation), 放寬監督 (Desupervision),
17:16
and the de facto decriminalization.
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事實上的合法化 (De Facto Decriminalization )。
17:20
Because we can make
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我們能改革以上三件事,
17:22
all three of these changes, and if we do so,
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如果我們這麼做,
17:26
we can dramatically reduce
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就能夠大幅減少
17:28
how often we have a crisis
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危機發生的頻率
17:31
and how severe those crises are.
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以及危機發生後的危害程度。
17:34
That is not simply critical to our economy.
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這不僅對經濟而言相當重要。
17:37
You can see what these crises do to inequality
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你可以看出危機造成貧富不均
17:41
and what they do to our democracy.
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以及對民主制度的影響。
17:43
They have produced crony capitalism,
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它造成美國式的
17:46
American-style,
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親信資本主義,
17:47
in which the largest financial institutions
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其中最大型的金融機構
17:50
are the leading financial donors of both parties,
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是兩黨的主要金主,
17:54
and that's the reason why
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這就是為何
17:56
even after this crisis,
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比儲貸危機還嚴重 70 倍
18:00
70 times larger than the savings and loan crisis,
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的危機發生後,
18:05
we have no meaningful reforms
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除了取締詐欺性貸款外,
18:08
in any of the three areas that I've talked about,
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以上我提到的 3 個層面
18:11
other than banning liar's loans,
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依然沒有實際上的改革。
18:13
which is good,
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這是好事,
18:14
but that's just one form of ammunition
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詐欺性貸款只是
18:17
for this fraud weapon.
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其中一種武器。
18:18
There are many forms of ammunition they can use.
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他們可使用的武器相當多。
18:22
That's why we need to learn
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這就是為何我們需要學習
18:24
what the bankers have learned:
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銀行家們的手法:
18:26
the recipe for the best way to rob a bank,
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搶銀行的最佳秘訣,
18:29
so that we can stop that recipe,
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這樣我們才能遏止這種做法,
18:32
because our legislators,
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因為我們的立法者,
18:34
who are dependent on political contributions,
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仰賴政治獻金,
18:37
will not do it on their own.
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他們不會主動採取行動。
18:39
Thank you very much.
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謝謝各位。
18:41
(Applause)
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(掌聲)
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