Geoff Mulgan: Post-crash, investing in a better world

38,104 views ・ 2009-09-02

TED


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翻译人员: Heidi Haibin Xu 校对人员: Tony Yet
00:19
It's hard to believe that it's less than a year since the extraordinary moment
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很难相信那个特殊时刻已过去将近一年
00:23
when the finance, the credit, which drives our economies froze.
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当时驱动经济的金融,信贷都停滞了。
00:27
A massive cardiac arrest.
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就像一次严重心脏骤停般的影响。
00:30
The effect, the payback, perhaps, for years of vampire predators like Bernie Madoff,
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它也许是对像伯纳德•麦道夫,我们刚才看到的,这样的多年的
00:34
whom we saw earlier.
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吸血鬼的惩罚。
00:36
Abuse of steroids, binging and so on.
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还有滥用类固醇,狂欢作乐,等等。
00:39
And it's only a few months since governments
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政府投入巨额资金试图维持
00:41
injected enormous sums of money to try and keep the whole system afloat.
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整个系统,至今才短短几个月。
00:47
And we're now in a very strange sort of twilight zone,
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我们现在正处在一个很奇怪的有点模糊的地带,
00:49
where no one quite knows what's worked, or what doesn't.
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没有人确切知道什么有效,什么没有。
00:53
We don't have any very clear maps, any compass to guide us.
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我们没有任何清晰的地图,或是指南针来指引我们。
00:58
We don't know which experts to believe anymore.
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我们不知道再去相信哪些专家。
01:01
What I'm going to try and do is to give some pointers
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我想尝试和做的是,
01:04
to what I think is the landscape on the other side of the crisis,
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给危机另一面上的景观画一些指示箭头,
01:08
what things we should be looking out for
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有哪些事我们应该注意
01:10
and how we can actually use the crisis.
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还有我们如何真正利用这次危机。
01:13
There's a definition of leadership which says,
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有一个关于领导才能的定义是这么说的,
01:15
"It's the ability to use the smallest possible crisis
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“它是利用最小危机
01:19
for the biggest possible effect."
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来达到最大效果的能力
01:21
And I want to talk about how we ensure that this crisis,
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我就是想谈一下我们如何确保
01:24
which is by no means small, really is used to the full.
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这次决不小的危机能真正被充分利用。
01:28
I want to start just by saying a bit about where I'm coming from.
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我想先稍微谈谈我自己的经历
01:31
I've got a very confused background
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我有非常混乱的经历
01:34
which perhaps makes me appropriate for confused times.
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这也有可能使我比较适合混乱的时代
01:38
I've got a Ph.D. in Telecoms, as you can see.
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我是电信博士,你们可以看到。
01:41
I trained briefly as a Buddhist monk under this guy.
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我曾经短期师从此人,作一个佛教徒
01:44
I've been a civil servant,
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我曾经是一名公务员
01:46
and I've been in charge of policy for this guy as well.
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也曾为这个人出谋划策,
01:49
But what I want to talk about begins when I was at this city, this university, as a student.
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但我想从我在这个城市,这所大学,作为一个学生开始说起。
01:54
And then as now, it was a beautiful place of balls and punts, beautiful people,
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和现在一样,当时这也是一个美丽的地方,有球类运动,划船,有美丽的人,
02:00
many of whom took to heart Ronald Reagan's comment
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他们很多人真心相信里根总统的这句话
02:03
that, "even if they say hard work doesn't do you any harm,
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"尽管他们说努力工作并不会害了你,
02:06
why risk it?"
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但为什么要冒这个险?
02:09
But when I was here,
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但我在这里的时候,
02:11
a lot of my fellow teenagers were in a very different situation,
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我的许多青少年伙伴处在非常不一样的形势下,
02:15
leaving school at a time then of rapidly growing youth unemployment,
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他们在年轻人失业飙升的时候毕业离开了学校,
02:19
and essentially hitting a brick wall in terms of their opportunities.
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在就业机会上他们等于撞上了南墙。
02:23
And I spent quite a lot of time with them rather than in punts.
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我没有去划船,而是花了大量时间和他们在一起
02:27
And they were people who were not short of wit, or grace or energy,
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他们不是缺少智慧,风度或是活力,
02:32
but they had no hope, no jobs, no prospects.
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可他们没有希望,没有工作,没有前途。
02:35
And when people aren't allowed to be useful,
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当人们不被允许有用时,
02:37
they soon think that they're useless.
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很快他们就会认为自己是无用的。
02:40
And although that was great for the music business at the time,
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尽管当时这种情况对音乐产业很不错,
02:43
it wasn't much good for anything else.
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但对任何其他行业来说并不太好
02:45
And ever since then, I've wondered why it is that capitalism
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从那时起,我就在考虑,为什么资本主义
02:48
is so amazingly efficient at some things, but so inefficient at others,
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对某些事情极其有效,但是对另一些事情却并不这么有效呢?
02:52
why it's so innovative in some ways and so un-innovative in others.
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又为什么它在某些方面很创新,但在另些方面却没有呢?
02:57
Now, since that time,
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那段时间以后,
02:59
we've actually been through an extraordinary boom,
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我们事实上经历了一段特殊的繁荣时期,
03:02
the longest boom ever in the history of this country.
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这个国家有史以来最长的繁荣时期
03:06
Unprecedented wealth and prosperity,
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史无前例的富裕和繁荣
03:08
but that growth hasn't always delivered what we needed.
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但是这种增长并没有一直带来我们所需要的
03:12
H.L. Mencken once said that, "to every complex problem,
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门肯曾经说过,“每一个复杂的问题,
03:15
there is a simple solution and it's wrong."
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都有一个简单的解“,但这是错的。
03:19
But I'm not saying growth is wrong,
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我并不是说增长是错误的,
03:21
but it's very striking that throughout the years of growth,
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但是值得注意的是经过这么多年的增长,
03:24
many things didn't get better.
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许多事情并没有好转。
03:26
Rates of depression carried on up, right across the Western world.
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在整个西方世界,抑郁症的比例在不断上升。
03:30
If you look at America, the proportion of Americans
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看一下美国,美国人中
03:32
with no one to talk to about important things
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无人可以谈心的人口比例
03:34
went up from a tenth to a quarter.
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从十分之一增长到了四分之一
03:37
We commuted longer to work, but as you can see from this graph,
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我们花更多时间在上下班的路上,但从这个图中你会看到,
03:40
the longer you commute the less happy you're likely to be.
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在路上花的时间越长,你就有可能越不快乐
03:44
And it became ever clearer that economic growth
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更清晰的一点是经济进步
03:47
doesn't automatically translate into social growth or human growth.
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并不能自动转化为社会进步或者人类进步。
03:52
We're now at another moment
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我们现在正处在另一个时刻、
03:54
when another wave of teenagers are entering a cruel job market.
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又一拨青少年正在进入这个残酷的就业市场
03:59
There will be a million unemployed young people here
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到今年底,这里会有一百万的
04:01
by the end of the year,
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年轻失业人口。
04:03
thousands losing their jobs everyday in America.
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而在美国每天都有数千人失去他们的工作
04:06
We've got to do whatever we can to help them,
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我们必须极尽所能去帮助他们
04:09
but we've also got to ask, I think, a more profound question
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但我们也必须问这样一个问题,我想,一个更深刻的问题
04:12
of whether we use this crisis to jump forward
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我们是否能利用这次危机向前跳跃
04:15
to a different kind of economy that's more suited to human needs,
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到一个不同的,更适合人类需要的经济制度,
04:19
to a better balance of economy and society.
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达到经济和社会的更和谐状态。
04:23
And I think one of the lessons of history is that
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我认为历史的重要一课就是,
04:25
even the deepest crises can be moments of opportunity.
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即使最深的危机也能带来机遇
04:30
They bring ideas from the margins into the mainstream.
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它们把边缘的想法带入主流
04:33
They often lead to the acceleration of much-needed reforms.
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他们往往加速了急需的改革
04:37
And you saw that in the '30s,
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你们看到这在三十年代发生过,
04:40
when the Great Depression paved the way
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当时的经济大萧条
04:43
for Bretton Woods, welfare states and so on.
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为布雷顿森林,福利国家等铺平了道路。
04:47
And I think you can see around us now,
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你们也可以看到现在在我们周围
04:49
some of the green shoots of a very different kind of economy and capitalism
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一种完全不同的经济制度和资本主义已萌生出绿芽
04:52
which could grow.
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并可能生长
04:54
You can see it in daily life.
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你们在日常生活中就能发现这些。
04:56
When times are hard, people have to do things for themselves,
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当时势艰难,人们不得不为自己做点什么
04:58
and right across the world, Oxford, Omaha, Omsk,
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在全世界,从牛津,奥马哈到鄂木斯克,
05:02
you can see an extraordinary explosion of urban farming,
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你们会发现城市化务农的激增
05:05
people taking over land, taking over roofs,
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人们借用土地, 借用房顶
05:08
turning barges into temporary farms.
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把游艇变作临时农场。
05:10
And I'm a very small part of this.
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我本人也是其中之一。
05:12
I have 60,000 of these things in my garden.
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在我的花园里我养了六万只这个家伙。
05:15
A few of these. This is Atilla the hen.
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还有一些这个。这是母鸡Atilla。
05:18
And I'm a very small part of a very large movement,
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我只是这巨大运动的一小份子,
05:21
which for some people is about survival,
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对某些人来说是为了生存
05:24
but is also about values, about a different kind of economy,
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但同时它也涉及到价值观,涉及到不同类型的经济,
05:27
which isn't so much about consumption and credit,
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它并不是那么关系到消费和信用
05:29
but about things which matter to us.
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而是关系到对我们真正重要的事。
05:32
And everywhere too, you can see a proliferation of time banks
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到处你们可以看到时间银行
05:35
and parallel currencies,
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和并行货币的激增,
05:37
people using smart technologies to link up
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人们运用高科技联系起
05:40
all the resources freed up by the market -- people, buildings, land --
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各种被市场,人,楼房和土地解放的资源
05:43
and linking them to whomever has got the most compelling needs.
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把它们和有最强烈需求的人联系起来。
05:48
There's a similar story, I think, for governments.
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这里有个类似的故事,关于政府的,
05:51
Ronald Reagan, again, said the two funniest sentences
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又是里根总统,他说在英语里
05:54
in the English language are,
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最滑稽的两句话是,
05:56
"I'm from the government. And I'm here to help."
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“我是政府的。我来这儿帮助你们。”
06:00
But I think last year when governments did step in,
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不过去年当政府真的介入,
06:02
people were quite glad that they were there, that they did act.
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人们还是很高兴有政府在,并且他们有所行动。
06:05
But now, a few months on,
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但是现在,几个月后,
06:07
however good politicians are at swallowing frogs
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再好的政治家都像在活吞青蛙
06:10
without pulling a face, as someone once put it,
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还不能拉着脸,像某些人形容的那样,
06:12
they can't hide their uncertainty.
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他们隐藏不了心中的无把握。
06:14
Because it's already clear
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因为已经很明显
06:16
how much of the enormous amount of money they put into the economy,
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他们投入到经济中的大量资金,无论多少
06:20
really went into fixing the past, bailing out the banks, the car companies,
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都只是在修补过去,帮助那些银行和汽车公司脱离困境,
06:25
not preparing us for the future.
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而不是为将来做好准备。
06:27
How much of the money is going into concrete and boosting consumption,
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到底有多少钱投入到了具体的消费增长中,
06:31
not into solving the really profound problems we have to solve.
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而不是用来去解决我们必须解决的真正严重的问题
06:35
And everywhere, as people think about the unprecedented sums
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到处,当人们想到那些空前的巨额资金
06:38
which are being spent of our money and our children's money,
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那些被花掉的我们的钱,我们孩子的钱
06:41
now, in the depth of this crisis, they're asking:
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现在,在这个危机深处,他们在问:
06:43
Surely, we should be using this with a longer-term vision
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想必,我们应该用更长远的眼光
06:47
to accelerate the shift to a green economy,
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来加速朝绿色经济的转变
06:49
to prepare for aging, to deal with some of the inequalities
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来为衰老做好准备,来对付有些不平等
06:52
which scar countries like this and the United States
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这些不平等给这个国家还有美国留下了伤疤
06:56
rather than just giving the money to the incumbents?
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而不只是把钱都给现任者?
06:59
Surely, we should be giving the money to entrepreneurs, to civil society,
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想必,我们应该把钱给企业家,给公民社会
07:02
for people able to create the new,
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使人们能够创新
07:04
not to the big, well-connected companies,
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而不是把钱给大的,关系好的公司,
07:07
big, clunky government programs.
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和庞大的笨重的政府项目。
07:10
And, after all this, as the great Chinese sage Lao Tzu said,
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总而言之,中国伟大的哲人老子说过,
07:14
"Governing a great country is like cooking a small fish.
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“治大国如烹小鲜。"
07:17
Don't overdo it."
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不要做过头。
07:20
And I think more and more people are also asking:
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我觉得越来越多人还在问:
07:23
Why boost consumption, rather than change what we consume?
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为什么刺激消费,而不是改变一下我们所消费的?
07:26
Like the mayor of São Paulo who's banned advertising billboards,
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就像圣保罗的市长,他取缔了广告牌
07:30
or the many cities like San Francisco
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还有许多其他城市,像旧金山
07:32
putting in infrastructures for electric cars.
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进行了电动汽车基础设施的建设
07:35
You can see a bit of the same thing happening in the business world.
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你能看到在商业社会里零星的同样的事情在发生
07:41
Some, I think some of the bankers
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有一些,我觉得有一些银行家
07:43
who have appear to have learned nothing and forgotten nothing.
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好像什么都没有学到,也什么都没忘掉
07:46
But ask yourselves: What will be the biggest sectors of the economy
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但是问一下你们自己:经济中最大的领域将会是什么
07:49
in 10, 20, 30 years time? It won't be the ones lining up for handouts,
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在10,20,30年后?不会是排队等着领救济品的行业
07:53
like cars and aerospace and so on.
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比如汽车,航空航天工业,等等。
07:55
The biggest sector, by far, will be health --
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最大的领域,从目前来看,会是健康-
07:58
already 18 percent of the American economy,
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已占美国经济的百分之十八
08:01
predicted to grow to 30, even 40 percent by mid-century.
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预计到本世纪中会增长到百分之三十,甚至四十。
08:05
Elder care, child care, already much bigger employers than cars.
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老年人护理,儿童护理已经比汽车行业多雇佣很多人
08:09
Education: six, seven, eight percent of the economy and growing.
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教育,占经济的百分之六,七,八,会持续增长
08:13
Environmental services, energy services, the myriad of green jobs,
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环境服务,能源服务,各式各样的绿色工作
08:17
they're all pointing to a very different kind of economy
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它们都指向了一个非常不同的经济形式
08:20
which isn't just about products, but is using distributed networks,
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这种经济形式不只是关于产品,而是要利用分散式网络
08:25
and it's founded above all on care, on relationships,
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并且它首先是建立在关怀和关系之上
08:29
on what people do to other people, often one to one,
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建立在人们对他人的服务之上,而且经常是一对一的服务
08:32
rather than simply selling them a product.
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而不是简单的卖给他们商品
08:37
And I think that what connects the challenge for civil society,
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还有,我认为,现在把对公民社会的挑战
08:40
the challenge for governments and the challenge for business now
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对政府的挑战和对商业的挑战联系起来的
08:43
is, in a way, a very simple one, but quite a difficult one.
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是从某方面来说非常简单的,但也是非常困难的一种东西。
08:47
We know our societies have to radically change.
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我们知道我们的社会必须从根本上改变
08:51
We know we can't go back to where we were before the crisis.
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我们知道我们不能再回到危机之前
08:55
But we also know it's only through experiment
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但同时我们也知道只有通过实验
08:58
that we'll discover exactly how to run a low carbon city,
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我们才会发现怎样运行一个低碳的城市,
09:02
how to care for a much older population,
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怎样照料更大的老龄化人口,
09:05
how to deal with drug addiction and so on.
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怎样解决吸毒问题,等等。
09:09
And here's the problem.
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这里还有个问题。
09:11
In science, we do experiments systematically.
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在科学领域,我们系统的做实验
09:14
Our societies now spend two, three, four percent of GDP
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我们的社会现在会花GDP的百分之二,三,四
09:19
to invest systematically in new discovery, in science, in technology,
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系统地投资新发现,投资科学和技术
09:22
to fuel the pipeline of brilliant inventions
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为杰出发明的输油管道加油
09:25
which illuminate gatherings like this.
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照亮像我们这样的聚会
09:28
It's not that our scientists are necessarily much smarter
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并不是我们的科学家一定
09:30
than they were a hundred years ago, maybe they are,
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比一百年前的更加聪明,他们也许是的,
09:33
but they have a hell of a lot more backing than they ever did.
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但他们以前从没有过这么多的支持
09:37
And what's striking though,
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不过打击人的是,
09:39
is that in society there's almost nothing comparable,
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在社会里我们几乎没什么可以拿来比较的,
09:41
no comparable investment,
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没有可比较的投资,
09:43
no systematic experiment, in the things capitalism isn't very good at,
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在资本主义不擅长事情上,比如热情,或者同情,或者关心,
09:47
like compassion, or empathy, or relationships or care.
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或者关怀上没有过系统的实验。
09:52
Now, I didn't really understand that until I met this guy
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直到我碰到这个人我才真正了解这些
09:55
who was then an 80-year-old, slightly shambolic man
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这个人那时80岁,是个有点散漫的人
09:58
who lived on tomato soup and thought ironing was very overrated.
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靠喝罗宋汤过活,并且认为人们太把熨烫衣服平整当回事
10:03
He had helped shape Britain's post-war institutions,
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他帮助重塑了英国的战后机构,
10:06
its welfare state, its economy,
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它的福利状况,它的经济制度,
10:09
but had sort of reinvented himself as a social entrepreneur,
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但是在某种程度上也重塑了他自己,作为一个社会企业家
10:12
became an inventor of many, many different organizations.
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成为非常多的不同组织的创造者。
10:15
Some famous ones like the Open University, which has 110,000 students,
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有一些非常有名,比如开放大学(Open University),有110,000个学生,
10:20
the University of the Third Age, which has nearly half a million older people
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老年大学有将近50万老年人
10:23
teaching other older people,
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教另外一些老年人,
10:25
as well as strange things like DIY garages and language lines
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还有一些新奇的像在车库里DIY, 电话教授语言
10:30
and schools for social entrepreneurs.
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还有培养社会企业家的学校。
10:32
And he ended his life selling companies to venture capitalists.
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他在生命结束之际把他的公司卖给了风投
10:36
He believed if you see a problem, you shouldn't tell someone to act,
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他相信如果你发现一个问题,你不应该告诉别人去行动,
10:39
you should act on it yourself, and he lived long enough
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你应该自己行动起来,他活得足够长
10:41
and saw enough of his ideas first scorned and then succeed
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看到了足够多的自己的想法先是被嘲笑后来被实现。
10:45
that he said you should always take no as a question and not as an answer.
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他说你应该把“不”当成一个问题,而不是一个答案。
10:51
And his life was a systematic experiment to find better social answers,
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他的一生就是一个寻找更好社会答案的系统实验
10:55
not from a theory, but from experiment, and experiment involving the people
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不是从一个理论中寻找,而是从实验中寻找,这些实验是涉及到对
11:00
with the best intelligence on social needs,
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社会需求最有智慧的人的实验,
11:02
which were usually the people living with those needs.
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这些人通常是有那些有那样需求的人。
11:04
And he believed we live with others, we share the world with others
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他还相信我们和他人一起生活,我们和他人分享世界
11:07
and therefore our innovation must be done with others too,
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因此我们的创新也必须"和"他人一起实现,
11:11
not doing things at people, for them, and so on.
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而不是"对"他人,"为"他人做什么,等等。
11:15
Now, what he did didn't used to have a name,
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他所做的曾经默默无名,
11:19
but I think it's rapidly becoming quite mainstream.
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但我觉得它正在很快地成为主流。
11:22
It's what we do in the organization named after him
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我们在以他名字命名的机构中做的就是这样的事,
11:25
where we try and invent, create, launch new ventures,
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在那里我们尝试,发明,创新,从事新的项目,
11:28
whether it's schools, web companies, health organizations and so on.
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不管是学校,网络公司还是健康机构,等等。
11:32
And we find ourselves part of a very rapidly growing global movement
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我们发现我们是这些机构飞速发展的全球运动的一部分,
11:36
of institutions working on social innovation,
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这些机构致力于社会创新
11:39
using ideas from design or technology or community organizing
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利用设计,科技,或社区团体的想法
11:43
to develop the germs of a future world, but through practice and through demonstration
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孕育出未来世界的幼芽,但是是通过实践,通过论证
11:48
and not through theory.
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而不是通过理论。
11:51
And they're spreading from Korea to Brazil to India to the USA
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它们从韩国传播到巴西,到印度,到美国,
11:54
and across Europe.
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传遍欧洲。
11:57
And they've been given new momentum by the crisis, by the need for better answers
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危机给了它们新的动力,还有对解决诸如失业,社区失效等问题
12:03
to joblessness, community breakdown and so on.
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的需求也给了它们新的动力
12:06
Some of the ideas are strange.
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有些想法很新奇。
12:08
These are complaints choirs.
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这些是抱怨合唱班。
12:10
People come together to sing about the things that really bug them.
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人们聚到一起来歌唱真正使他们烦恼的东西。
12:13
(Laughter)
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(笑声)
12:15
Others are much more pragmatic: health coaches, learning mentors, job clubs.
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还有一些更加实际的,像健康教练,学习辅导员,工作俱乐部。
12:19
And some are quite structural, like social impact bonds
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还有一些是非常结构性的, 像社会影响债券
12:22
where you raise money to invest in diverting teenagers from crime
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你筹钱投资让年轻人远离犯罪
12:26
or helping old people keep out of hospital,
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或者帮助老年人远离医院,
12:28
and you get paid back according to how successful your projects are.
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根据你的项目有多成功,你来收取回报
12:34
Now, the idea that all of this represents,
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现在,所有这些代表了一种观点
12:36
I think, is rapidly becoming a common sense
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我认为已经很快变成了一种常识
12:39
and part of how we respond to the crisis,
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和我们如何应对危机的一部分
12:41
recognizing the need to invest in innovation for social progress
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就是意识到有这种投资需求,要投资在使社会进步的创新上
12:45
as well as technological progress.
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和使科技进步的创新上。
12:47
There were big health innovation funds
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大笔健康创新资金
12:50
launched earlier this year in this country,
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在今年早些时候在这个国家投入使用
12:52
as well as a public service innovation lab.
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还有一个公共服务创新实验室
12:54
Across northern Europe, many governments
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在整个北欧,许多政府
12:56
now have innovation laboratories within them.
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现在在国内都有了创新实验室
12:59
And just a few months ago, President Obama
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就在几个月前,美国总统奥巴马
13:01
launched the Office of Social Innovation in the White House.
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在白宫启动了社会创新办公室
13:04
And what people are beginning to ask is:
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人们开始问这样的问题:
13:06
Surely, just as we invest in R and D, two, three, four percent,
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想必,就像我们用经济的,GDP的百分之二,三,四
13:10
of our GDP, of our economy,
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投资于研发,
13:12
what if we put, let's say, one percent of public spending
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如果我们可以把公共消费的百分之一
13:15
into social innovation, into elder care, new kinds of education,
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投入到社会创新中去,投入到老年护理,和各种教育中
13:19
new ways of helping the disabled?
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还有帮助残疾人的新的途径中去,会发生什么?
13:21
Perhaps we'd achieve similar productivity gains in society
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也许,我们能获得的社会生产力收益
13:25
to those we've had in the economy and in technology.
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和我们投入到经济和科技中得到的收益差不多
13:29
And if, a generation or two ago, the big challenges
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如果说一两代人以前,巨大的挑战
13:31
were ones like getting a man on the moon,
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是把人送上月球
13:34
perhaps the challenges we need to set ourselves now
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那可能现在我们需要应对的挑战
13:37
are ones like eliminating child malnutrition, stopping trafficking,
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就是消除儿童营养失调,人口买卖
13:42
or one, I think closer to home for America or Europe,
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或者是一个对美国或对欧洲来说离家近一点的挑战,
13:44
why don't we set ourselves the goal
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我们为什么不为自己制定这样一个目标
13:46
of achieving a billion extra years of life for today's citizens.
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为今天的公民多赢得十亿年的寿命
13:49
Now those are all goals which could be achieved within a decade,
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这些都是十年内可以实现的目标
13:53
but only with radical and systematic experiment,
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但都必须经过根本上的系统性的实验,
13:57
not just with technologies, but also with lifestyles and culture
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不只是利用科技,还要用生活方式和文化
14:01
and policies and institutions too.
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还有政策和机构来实现
14:05
Now, I want to end by saying a little bit about what I think this means for capitalism.
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最后,作为结束语,我想稍微谈一下这对资本主义的意义。
14:11
I think what this is all about, this whole movement
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我认为这场运动
14:13
which is growing from the margins, remains quite small.
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从边缘开始的运动,仍然很小。
14:16
Nothing like the resources of a CERN or a DARPA or an IBM or a Dupont.
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它不像欧洲核组织,国防先进研究计划局,IBM或者杜邦那样资源丰富♪
14:20
What it's telling us is that capitalism is going to become more social.
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它告诉我们资本主义将变得更加社会化。
14:24
It's already immersed in social networks.
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它已经扎根于社会网络中。
14:26
It will become more involved in social investment, and social care
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它将会更多参与社会投资和社会护理
14:31
and in industries where the value comes from what you do with others,
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参与到这样一些行业,它的价值体现在你和他人一起做了什么,
14:35
not just from what you sell to them,
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而不是你卖给他们什么商品,
14:38
and from relationships as well as from consumption.
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体现在消费也体现在人们的关系上。
14:41
But interestingly too, it implies a future where society learns a few tricks from capitalism
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有趣的是,它暗示了这样一种未来,社会从资本主义中学习到一些窍门
14:46
about how you embed the DNA of restless continual innovation
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有关如何把持续创新的DNA根植于
14:50
into society, trying things out and then growing and scaling the ones that work.
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社会,尝试新的东西,然后发展壮大那些有效的。
14:57
Now, I think this future will be quite surprising to many people.
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我认为这样的未来对很多人来说都是令人惊奇的。
15:01
In recent years, a lot of intelligent people thought that capitalism had basically won.
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近些年来,一大批聪明人认为资本主义基本上赢了。
15:06
History was over
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历史结束了,
15:08
and society would inevitably have to take second place to economy.
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社会不可避免地在经济后屈居二位。
15:13
But I've been struck with a parallel in how people often talk about capitalism today
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但是今天听到人们如何经常谈论资本主义, 谈论200年前的君主制
15:18
and how they talked about the monarchy 200 years ago,
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在法国大革命和君主制在法国复辟后
15:21
just after the French Revolution and the restoration of the monarchy in France.
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我还是被他们类似的观点击倒了。
15:25
Then, people said monarchy dominated everywhere
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当时,人们说君主制统治了所有地方
15:28
because it was rooted in human nature.
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因为它是根生在人性里的。
15:30
We were naturally deferential. We needed hierarchy.
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我们天生是顺从的。我们需要阶层统治。
15:33
Just as today, the enthusiasts of unrestrained capitalism
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就像今天,那些热衷于完全自由的资本主义的人
15:37
say it's rooted in human nature,
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说的资本主义根植于人性中。
15:39
only now it's individualism, inquisitiveness, and so on.
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只是现在是个人主义,爱打听别人隐私,等等。
15:42
Then monarchy had seen off its big challenger, mass democracy,
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后来君主制打败了它的挑战者,大众民主,♪
15:47
which was seen as a well-intentioned but doomed experiment,
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大众民主被认为是善意的,但是注定会失败的实验
15:50
just as capitalism has seen off socialism.
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就像现在资本主义打败了社会主义。
15:53
Even Fidel Castro now says that the only thing worse
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甚至卡斯特罗现在也说,只有一件事
15:56
than being exploited by multinational capitalism
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被比跨国资本主义剥削还要坏
15:58
is not being exploited by multinational capitalism.
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那就是不被跨国资本主义剥削。
16:03
And whereas then monarchies, palaces and forts dominated every city skyline
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尽管当时君主制,宫殿,堡垒战领了每一个城市的地平线,
16:07
and looked permanent and confident,
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而且看上去永久和自信,
16:09
today it's the gleaming towers of the banks which dominate every big city.
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但今天却是银行大楼的闪亮塔尖占领了每一个大城市。
16:13
I'm not suggesting the crowds are about to storm the barricades
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我不是建议人群去冲击街垒
16:16
and string up every investment banker from the nearest lamppost,
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并且在最近的路灯柱上吊死每一个投资银行家,
16:20
though that might be quite tempting.
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尽管那听上去确实蛮诱人的。
16:22
But I do think we're on the verge of a period when,
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但我真的认为我们正处在一个时代的边上,
16:25
just as happened to the monarchy and, interestingly, the military too,
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就像发生在君主制,还有军事上一样,
16:29
the central position of finance capital is going to come to an end,
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当金融资本的中心位置将要结束,
16:33
and it's going to steadily move to the sides, the margins of our society,
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它将会逐步移到边上,移向社会的边缘,
16:37
transformed from being a master into a servant,
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从主人变成仆人,
16:40
a servant to the productive economy and of human needs.
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一个服务于生产性经济和人类需要的仆人。
16:44
And as that happens,
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当那发生时,
16:46
we will remember something very simple and obvious about capitalism,
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我们会想起一些有关资本主义的简单而又明显的事实,
16:49
which is that, unlike what you read in economics textbooks,
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就是,并不像你在经济教科书中读到的,
16:52
it's not a self-sufficient system.
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它并不是一个自给自足的系统。
16:55
It depends on other systems,
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它依靠于其他系统,
16:57
on ecology, on family, on community,
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依靠生态学,依靠家庭,依靠社区,
17:00
and if these aren't replenished, capitalism suffers too.
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当这些都没有补足,资本主义也会变糟。
17:04
And our human nature isn't just selfish, it's also compassionate.
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我们的人性中并不只有自私,它还有同情心。
17:09
It's not just competitive, it's also caring.
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不光有竞争,还有关怀。
17:14
Because of the depth of the crisis, I think we are at a moment of choice.
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因为这次危机之深,我们处在一个选择的时刻。
17:19
The crisis is almost certainly deepening around us.
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危机几乎在我们周围不断深化。
17:22
It will be worse at the end of this year,
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到今年年底将更糟,
17:24
quite possibly worse in a year's time than it is today.
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很有可能一年后更加糟糕。
17:27
But this is one of those very rare moments
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但是这也是那种稀有时刻之一
17:30
when we have to choose whether we're just pedaling furiously
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当我们必须选择是愤怒地踏步
17:33
to get back to where we were a year or two ago,
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回到我们一年或两年前
17:36
and a very narrow idea of what the economy is for,
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对经济到底是为什么服务有一个很狭隘的想法
17:40
or whether this is a moment to jump ahead, to reboot
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还是这是一个向前跳跃的时刻,重新启动
17:45
and to do some of the things we probably should have been doing anyway.
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做一些我们很可能原来就应该做的事情。
17:48
Thank you.
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谢谢。
17:50
(Applause)
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(掌声)
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