Geoff Mulgan: Post-crash, investing in a better world

38,104 views ・ 2009-09-02

TED


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譯者: Pin-hsien Kuo 審譯者: Marie Wu
00:19
It's hard to believe that it's less than a year since the extraordinary moment
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很難相信金融危機是不到一年前發生的事,
00:23
when the finance, the credit, which drives our economies froze.
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我們的經濟凍結了,
00:27
A massive cardiac arrest.
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像一場嚴重的心臟病發作。
00:30
The effect, the payback, perhaps, for years of vampire predators like Bernie Madoff,
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也許這是馬多夫這種吸血鬼,在吸了我們多年的血之後,
00:34
whom we saw earlier.
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必然會發生的結果。
00:36
Abuse of steroids, binging and so on.
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就像濫用類固醇,狂歡等等。
00:39
And it's only a few months since governments
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僅僅幾個月前,政府才
00:41
injected enormous sums of money to try and keep the whole system afloat.
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投入鉅額資金試圖維持系統運作,
00:47
And we're now in a very strange sort of twilight zone,
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而我們現在處於一個很奇怪、像是陰陽魔界的地帶,
00:49
where no one quite knows what's worked, or what doesn't.
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沒人確定什麼有用,什麼沒用。
00:53
We don't have any very clear maps, any compass to guide us.
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我們沒有明確的地圖或指南針指引,
00:58
We don't know which experts to believe anymore.
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我們也不知道哪個專家可以信賴。
01:01
What I'm going to try and do is to give some pointers
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我想做的是指出
01:04
to what I think is the landscape on the other side of the crisis,
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金融危機的另一面,
01:08
what things we should be looking out for
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就是我們該小心什麼,
01:10
and how we can actually use the crisis.
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以及我們能怎樣利用這次危機。
01:13
There's a definition of leadership which says,
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有一種對領導力的定義是說:
01:15
"It's the ability to use the smallest possible crisis
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「將最小的危機
01:19
for the biggest possible effect."
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轉化成最大效能的能力。」
01:21
And I want to talk about how we ensure that this crisis,
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我也要說說我們該怎麼把這不算小的危機
01:24
which is by no means small, really is used to the full.
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用到極盡。
01:28
I want to start just by saying a bit about where I'm coming from.
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我想先講講我的經歷。
01:31
I've got a very confused background
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我的背景很複雜,
01:34
which perhaps makes me appropriate for confused times.
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可能就是這樣,我很適合活在複雜的時代。
01:38
I've got a Ph.D. in Telecoms, as you can see.
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我有一個電訊博士學位,
01:41
I trained briefly as a Buddhist monk under this guy.
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我曾短期拜這位為師,接受成為佛僧的訓練,
01:44
I've been a civil servant,
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我當過公務員,
01:46
and I've been in charge of policy for this guy as well.
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也負責過這個人的政策。
01:49
But what I want to talk about begins when I was at this city, this university, as a student.
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但我要說的起始於我在這城市當大學生時,
01:54
And then as now, it was a beautiful place of balls and punts, beautiful people,
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跟現在一樣,那是個美麗的地方,有人踢球、划船、還有帥哥美女,
02:00
many of whom took to heart Ronald Reagan's comment
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很多人都對雷根(Ronald Reagan)的說法深感同意:
02:03
that, "even if they say hard work doesn't do you any harm,
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「即使大家都說辛苦工作無害,
02:06
why risk it?"
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但也沒必要冒險吧?」
02:09
But when I was here,
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但我在那裡時,
02:11
a lot of my fellow teenagers were in a very different situation,
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我很多的青少年同儕處境相差很多,
02:15
leaving school at a time then of rapidly growing youth unemployment,
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他們畢業時,正好處於青年失業率劇增的時機,
02:19
and essentially hitting a brick wall in terms of their opportunities.
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在尋求機會上總是碰釘子。
02:23
And I spent quite a lot of time with them rather than in punts.
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我花好多時間在他們身上,而不是在平底船上。
02:27
And they were people who were not short of wit, or grace or energy,
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他們這些人不是不夠聰明、不夠優雅或體力不足,
02:32
but they had no hope, no jobs, no prospects.
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而是他們沒有希望、沒有工作、沒有前景。
02:35
And when people aren't allowed to be useful,
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而當人們無法一展所長時,
02:37
they soon think that they're useless.
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他們很快就會覺得自己沒用。
02:40
And although that was great for the music business at the time,
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雖然當時的音樂事業發展得很好,
02:43
it wasn't much good for anything else.
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其他的產業則不然。
02:45
And ever since then, I've wondered why it is that capitalism
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從那時開始,我不禁納悶為什麼資本主義
02:48
is so amazingly efficient at some things, but so inefficient at others,
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在某方面能出奇地有效率,在其他方面則又不然,
02:52
why it's so innovative in some ways and so un-innovative in others.
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在某方面可以如此創新,在其他方面又恰恰相反。
02:57
Now, since that time,
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那段時間過後,
02:59
we've actually been through an extraordinary boom,
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我們的景氣確實蓬勃發展了一陣子,
03:02
the longest boom ever in the history of this country.
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是我國有史以來最久的一次,
03:06
Unprecedented wealth and prosperity,
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史無前例的富裕和繁榮,
03:08
but that growth hasn't always delivered what we needed.
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但那成長並不總是帶來我們所需要的。
03:12
H.L. Mencken once said that, "to every complex problem,
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孟肯(H.L.Mencken,美國知名社會評論家)曾說:「每個複雜的問題,
03:15
there is a simple solution and it's wrong."
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都有個簡單的解法,但那個解法是不對的。」
03:19
But I'm not saying growth is wrong,
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我不是說經濟成長不好,
03:21
but it's very striking that throughout the years of growth,
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然而駭人的是,經過這些年的成長,
03:24
many things didn't get better.
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很多事並沒有好轉。
03:26
Rates of depression carried on up, right across the Western world.
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憂鬱症比例節節升高,遍及整個西方世界。
03:30
If you look at America, the proportion of Americans
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看看美國,原本只有十分之一的人
03:32
with no one to talk to about important things
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找不到可以傾訴重要事情的對象,
03:34
went up from a tenth to a quarter.
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現在已經升到1/4了。
03:37
We commuted longer to work, but as you can see from this graph,
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人們通勤的時間增長,而你們可以從這張圖表看出,
03:40
the longer you commute the less happy you're likely to be.
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通勤的時間越長,就越不可能快樂。
03:44
And it became ever clearer that economic growth
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我們漸漸明白,經濟成長
03:47
doesn't automatically translate into social growth or human growth.
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並不一定等於社會成長、或人性提升。
03:52
We're now at another moment
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我們現在又再次面臨
03:54
when another wave of teenagers are entering a cruel job market.
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青少年即將進入殘忍的就業市場的一刻,
03:59
There will be a million unemployed young people here
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年底前即將有一百萬名
04:01
by the end of the year,
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失業的年輕人。
04:03
thousands losing their jobs everyday in America.
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美國每天有上千人失去工作,
04:06
We've got to do whatever we can to help them,
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我們必須盡其所能幫助這些人,
04:09
but we've also got to ask, I think, a more profound question
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但我們同時也該提出一個更深層的問題:
04:12
of whether we use this crisis to jump forward
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我們能否利用這次危機將我們的經濟
04:15
to a different kind of economy that's more suited to human needs,
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轉型成一個更符合人性需求、
04:19
to a better balance of economy and society.
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讓社會與經濟更協調的狀態。
04:23
And I think one of the lessons of history is that
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我覺得歷史的教訓之一就是:
04:25
even the deepest crises can be moments of opportunity.
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即便是最大的危機,也可以是轉機。
04:30
They bring ideas from the margins into the mainstream.
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危機可以為主流思想帶入新觀念,
04:33
They often lead to the acceleration of much-needed reforms.
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並加速必要改革的腳步。
04:37
And you saw that in the '30s,
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這在三十年代就曾發生過,
04:40
when the Great Depression paved the way
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大蕭條造就了
04:43
for Bretton Woods, welfare states and so on.
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布雷頓森林協議、福利國家等等。
04:47
And I think you can see around us now,
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我想你們現在可以看看周遭,
04:49
some of the green shoots of a very different kind of economy and capitalism
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我們可以培育某些不同的經濟
04:52
which could grow.
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和資本主義的幼苗。
04:54
You can see it in daily life.
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在日常生活裡就可以看見這些幼苗,
04:56
When times are hard, people have to do things for themselves,
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每當時機不好,人們凡事就得自己來,
04:58
and right across the world, Oxford, Omaha, Omsk,
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現在整個世界,包括牛津、奧馬哈、歐姆斯克等地,
05:02
you can see an extraordinary explosion of urban farming,
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你都可以見到都市耕作大量增加,
05:05
people taking over land, taking over roofs,
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人們把土地、屋頂、
05:08
turning barges into temporary farms.
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大型平底船改造成暫時性農場。
05:10
And I'm a very small part of this.
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我也參加了一小部分,
05:12
I have 60,000 of these things in my garden.
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我花園裡有六萬隻這類的東西,
05:15
A few of these. This is Atilla the hen.
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很多,這是母雞阿提拉。
05:18
And I'm a very small part of a very large movement,
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我在這個大趨勢中,只不過是一個非常小的參與者,
05:21
which for some people is about survival,
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但對某些人來說卻攸關生死,
05:24
but is also about values, about a different kind of economy,
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關係到價值觀和不同類型的經濟體,
05:27
which isn't so much about consumption and credit,
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不再只是繞著消費和信貸打轉,
05:29
but about things which matter to us.
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而是回到對我們來說更重要的事。
05:32
And everywhere too, you can see a proliferation of time banks
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各地都可以見到時間銀行(貢獻彼此專長的社群網站)
05:35
and parallel currencies,
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及平行貨幣逐漸普及,
05:37
people using smart technologies to link up
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人們開始用先進科技連結
05:40
all the resources freed up by the market -- people, buildings, land --
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被市場、人群、建築、土地釋放出來的資源,
05:43
and linking them to whomever has got the most compelling needs.
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並連結到那些需求最迫切的人們。
05:48
There's a similar story, I think, for governments.
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我想政府那邊也有類似的故事。
05:51
Ronald Reagan, again, said the two funniest sentences
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雷根用英語說過
05:54
in the English language are,
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最好笑的兩句話是:
05:56
"I'm from the government. And I'm here to help."
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「我是政府派來的,而且我是來幫忙的。」
06:00
But I think last year when governments did step in,
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但我認為去年政府介入時,
06:02
people were quite glad that they were there, that they did act.
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民眾對政府有挺身而出還蠻高興的,
06:05
But now, a few months on,
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但是現在過了幾個月,
06:07
however good politicians are at swallowing frogs
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即使有人說這些政客厲害到連吞青蛙
06:10
without pulling a face, as someone once put it,
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也面不改色,
06:12
they can't hide their uncertainty.
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但他們也沒辦法隱藏自己的不確定感。
06:14
Because it's already clear
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因為事實就擺在眼前,
06:16
how much of the enormous amount of money they put into the economy,
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丟了那麼多錢在救經濟,
06:20
really went into fixing the past, bailing out the banks, the car companies,
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其實大部分都用來補以前的洞、拯救銀行、拯救汽車公司,
06:25
not preparing us for the future.
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而不是在為我們的未來鋪路。
06:27
How much of the money is going into concrete and boosting consumption,
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花了這麼多錢在鞏固和刺激消費,
06:31
not into solving the really profound problems we have to solve.
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卻沒有治到我們應該治的根。
06:35
And everywhere, as people think about the unprecedented sums
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當我們想著我們所支出的空前鉅額款項,
06:38
which are being spent of our money and our children's money,
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全都是我們以及我們小孩的錢時,
06:41
now, in the depth of this crisis, they're asking:
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處在水深火熱危機中的我們該問:
06:43
Surely, we should be using this with a longer-term vision
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「我們應該要用更有遠見的方法,
06:47
to accelerate the shift to a green economy,
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來加速轉型成綠色經濟,
06:49
to prepare for aging, to deal with some of the inequalities
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為人口老化做準備,解決這個把美國和其他國家
06:52
which scar countries like this and the United States
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搞得坑坑疤疤的不均衡問題,
06:56
rather than just giving the money to the incumbents?
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而不是一味把錢送給闖禍的人吧?」
06:59
Surely, we should be giving the money to entrepreneurs, to civil society,
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我們當然也該提供資金給那些能夠創新的
07:02
for people able to create the new,
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企業、社團或個人,
07:04
not to the big, well-connected companies,
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而不是給那些又大又到處有關係的公司,
07:07
big, clunky government programs.
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或既大又笨重的政府計畫。
07:10
And, after all this, as the great Chinese sage Lao Tzu said,
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畢竟,偉大的中國聖人老子也說過:
07:14
"Governing a great country is like cooking a small fish.
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「治大國,
07:17
Don't overdo it."
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若烹小鮮。」
07:20
And I think more and more people are also asking:
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我覺得越來越多人在問:
07:23
Why boost consumption, rather than change what we consume?
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為什麼寧願刺激消費,卻不願意改變我們消費的東西?
07:26
Like the mayor of São Paulo who's banned advertising billboards,
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像聖保羅的市長就禁用廣告看板,
07:30
or the many cities like San Francisco
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或很多跟舊金山一樣的城市,
07:32
putting in infrastructures for electric cars.
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都為電動車裝設了基礎設施,
07:35
You can see a bit of the same thing happening in the business world.
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你也可以在商場上看到類似的演變。
07:41
Some, I think some of the bankers
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我認為有些銀行家
07:43
who have appear to have learned nothing and forgotten nothing.
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似乎什麼都沒學到,也全都忘記了,
07:46
But ask yourselves: What will be the biggest sectors of the economy
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但請捫心自問:在未來的10、20、30年間,
07:49
in 10, 20, 30 years time? It won't be the ones lining up for handouts,
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整個經濟體中貢獻最大的產業會是什麼?不會是那些排隊領取
07:53
like cars and aerospace and so on.
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政府補助的汽車業或航太工業;
07:55
The biggest sector, by far, will be health --
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最大塊的是,以目前來講,是醫療產業~
07:58
already 18 percent of the American economy,
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已經佔美國總體經濟的18%,
08:01
predicted to grow to 30, even 40 percent by mid-century.
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預計將在世紀中期成長到30%甚至40%。
08:05
Elder care, child care, already much bigger employers than cars.
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老人照顧、孩童照顧產業的從業人員,都已超過汽車業。
08:09
Education: six, seven, eight percent of the economy and growing.
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教育,佔總體經濟的6%、7%或8%,且仍在成長。
08:13
Environmental services, energy services, the myriad of green jobs,
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環保服務、能源服務、數不清的綠色工作,
08:17
they're all pointing to a very different kind of economy
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都指向一個截然不同的經濟產業,
08:20
which isn't just about products, but is using distributed networks,
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這個產業提供的不只是產品,還搭配運用了配銷網路,
08:25
and it's founded above all on care, on relationships,
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強調關懷、關係、
08:29
on what people do to other people, often one to one,
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和人們對他人做了什麼,通常是一對一,
08:32
rather than simply selling them a product.
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而不只是銷售產品。
08:37
And I think that what connects the challenge for civil society,
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我認為現在各個社團、
08:40
the challenge for governments and the challenge for business now
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政府及企業所面臨的挑戰,
08:43
is, in a way, a very simple one, but quite a difficult one.
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看起來很簡單,但其實又蠻難的。
08:47
We know our societies have to radically change.
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大家都知道我們的社會必須徹底改變,
08:51
We know we can't go back to where we were before the crisis.
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也知道再也不能回到金融危機發生之前的過去,
08:55
But we also know it's only through experiment
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但我們也知道只有透過不斷嚐試,
08:58
that we'll discover exactly how to run a low carbon city,
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才能打造低碳城市、
09:02
how to care for a much older population,
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照顧老年人口、
09:05
how to deal with drug addiction and so on.
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解決毒品上癮等問題。
09:09
And here's the problem.
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問題就來了。
09:11
In science, we do experiments systematically.
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在科學上,我們會有系統地做實驗,
09:14
Our societies now spend two, three, four percent of GDP
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現在國內生產總值的2%、3%、或4%
09:19
to invest systematically in new discovery, in science, in technology,
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是有系統地投資在新發現、科學及科技領域上,
09:22
to fuel the pipeline of brilliant inventions
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給優秀的發明加加火力,
09:25
which illuminate gatherings like this.
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就像照亮這些的東西。
09:28
It's not that our scientists are necessarily much smarter
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現代的科學家不一定就比
09:30
than they were a hundred years ago, maybe they are,
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一百年前的科學家聰明,即便如此,
09:33
but they have a hell of a lot more backing than they ever did.
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那是因為他們有以前科學家留下的知識做後盾。
09:37
And what's striking though,
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但令人驚訝的是,
09:39
is that in society there's almost nothing comparable,
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社會科學是沒法比較的,
09:41
no comparable investment,
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我們沒有投入對稱的資金,
09:43
no systematic experiment, in the things capitalism isn't very good at,
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我們也不能針對同情心、同理心、關懷或關心等
09:47
like compassion, or empathy, or relationships or care.
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這些資本主義所不擅長的事物,進行系統化的實驗。
09:52
Now, I didn't really understand that until I met this guy
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在我遇見這個人之前,我還不太明白這個道理。
09:55
who was then an 80-year-old, slightly shambolic man
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他那時候80歲了,是個有點雜亂無章的男人,
09:58
who lived on tomato soup and thought ironing was very overrated.
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他喝蕃茄湯過活,還認為燙衣服太高級。
10:03
He had helped shape Britain's post-war institutions,
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他曾幫忙塑造英國戰後的機構,
10:06
its welfare state, its economy,
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包括福利國家、經濟等,
10:09
but had sort of reinvented himself as a social entrepreneur,
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但是有點像是重新把自己改造成一個社團創辦者,
10:12
became an inventor of many, many different organizations.
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成為一個發明許多許多不同組織的人。
10:15
Some famous ones like the Open University, which has 110,000 students,
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其中一些有名的像是開放大學,有十一萬個學生,
10:20
the University of the Third Age, which has nearly half a million older people
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還有第三年代大學,大概有50萬位年長者
10:23
teaching other older people,
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傳授學問給其他年長者。
10:25
as well as strange things like DIY garages and language lines
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也有一些奇怪的組織,像是自製車庫和語言學校,
10:30
and schools for social entrepreneurs.
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以及給社團創辦者的學校。
10:32
And he ended his life selling companies to venture capitalists.
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他的生命在把公司賣給創投業者後畫下終點。
10:36
He believed if you see a problem, you shouldn't tell someone to act,
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他相信如果你看到問題,不應該去叫別人行動,
10:39
you should act on it yourself, and he lived long enough
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你應該自己起而行。而他活的夠久,
10:41
and saw enough of his ideas first scorned and then succeed
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看得到他那些一開始被人譏笑的想法修成正果,
10:45
that he said you should always take no as a question and not as an answer.
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他說你應該總是把「不行」看做問句,而不是答案。
10:51
And his life was a systematic experiment to find better social answers,
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而他的一生就是系統化的實驗,找出更好的社會解答,
10:55
not from a theory, but from experiment, and experiment involving the people
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不根據定理,而是實驗。他的實驗涵蓋那些
11:00
with the best intelligence on social needs,
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最瞭解社會需求的人,
11:02
which were usually the people living with those needs.
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也通常就是亟需這些需求的人。
11:04
And he believed we live with others, we share the world with others
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他也相信,我們和他人生活在一起,我們和他人分享這世界,
11:07
and therefore our innovation must be done with others too,
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因此我們的創新也必須借助他人的力量才能完成,
11:11
not doing things at people, for them, and so on.
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而不單只是為某人而做、或是為別人而做等等。
11:15
Now, what he did didn't used to have a name,
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他原本沒沒無名,
11:19
but I think it's rapidly becoming quite mainstream.
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但我認為現在正快速演變成主流了。
11:22
It's what we do in the organization named after him
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我們在組織裡做的事是以他命名,
11:25
where we try and invent, create, launch new ventures,
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在那裡我們試著發明、創造、開始新冒險,
11:28
whether it's schools, web companies, health organizations and so on.
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無論是學校、網路公司、健保機構等都一樣。
11:32
And we find ourselves part of a very rapidly growing global movement
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我們還發現自己已捲入一個急速成長的全球趨勢,
11:36
of institutions working on social innovation,
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成為致力於社會創新的機構,
11:39
using ideas from design or technology or community organizing
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利用設計、科技或社群組織引發的想法,
11:43
to develop the germs of a future world, but through practice and through demonstration
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培育未來世界的幼苗,但我們不靠理論空談,
11:48
and not through theory.
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而是實際演練和展示。
11:51
And they're spreading from Korea to Brazil to India to the USA
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這個趨勢從韓國傳到巴西,再傳到印度和美國,
11:54
and across Europe.
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並橫跨整個歐洲。
11:57
And they've been given new momentum by the crisis, by the need for better answers
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金融危機帶給這股新趨勢新的動能,
12:03
to joblessness, community breakdown and so on.
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為失業、社群崩解等提出更好的解釋。
12:06
Some of the ideas are strange.
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有些想法怪怪的。
12:08
These are complaints choirs.
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這是抱怨合唱團,
12:10
People come together to sing about the things that really bug them.
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人們聚集起來唱唱他們厭煩的事情。
12:13
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
12:15
Others are much more pragmatic: health coaches, learning mentors, job clubs.
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其他的就比較務實,像健康教練、學習輔導員、就業俱樂部等。
12:19
And some are quite structural, like social impact bonds
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還有一些蠻有架構的,像「社會影響債券」,
12:22
where you raise money to invest in diverting teenagers from crime
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就是籌錢去資助青少年改邪歸正,
12:26
or helping old people keep out of hospital,
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或幫助老人遠離醫院,
12:28
and you get paid back according to how successful your projects are.
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然後你所得的報酬是依照你計畫成功的程度來計價。
12:34
Now, the idea that all of this represents,
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我認為,這所有的想法,
12:36
I think, is rapidly becoming a common sense
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正迅速地發展成一種常識,
12:39
and part of how we respond to the crisis,
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成為我們面臨危機時的應對方法,
12:41
recognizing the need to invest in innovation for social progress
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讓我們體認到我們必須為社會的創新改革投入資金,
12:45
as well as technological progress.
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就如同我們為科技發展所投入的資金一樣。
12:47
There were big health innovation funds
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一些鉅額的健康創新基金,
12:50
launched earlier this year in this country,
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早就在今年發行了,
12:52
as well as a public service innovation lab.
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同時也啟動了公益服務創新實驗室。
12:54
Across northern Europe, many governments
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北歐有很多政府部門,
12:56
now have innovation laboratories within them.
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現在都有了自己的創新實驗室。
12:59
And just a few months ago, President Obama
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就在幾個月前,歐巴馬總統
13:01
launched the Office of Social Innovation in the White House.
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啟用了白宮「社會創新辦公室」。
13:04
And what people are beginning to ask is:
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大家開始會問:
13:06
Surely, just as we invest in R and D, two, three, four percent,
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我們既然花2%、3%、或4%的國內生產總值
13:10
of our GDP, of our economy,
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在研發上,
13:12
what if we put, let's say, one percent of public spending
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為何不把1%的公共支出經費
13:15
into social innovation, into elder care, new kinds of education,
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用在社會創新、老年照護、新式教育、
13:19
new ways of helping the disabled?
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和新的幫助殘疾人士的方法上?
13:21
Perhaps we'd achieve similar productivity gains in society
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或許我們可以達成類似在經濟和科技上
13:25
to those we've had in the economy and in technology.
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所獲得的生產報酬。
13:29
And if, a generation or two ago, the big challenges
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在一兩個世代前,人類最大的挑戰是
13:31
were ones like getting a man on the moon,
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像送太空人上月球之類的,
13:34
perhaps the challenges we need to set ourselves now
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也許我們現在所該設定的挑戰,
13:37
are ones like eliminating child malnutrition, stopping trafficking,
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應該是根絕孩童營養失衡問題、阻止走私等,
13:42
or one, I think closer to home for America or Europe,
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或者,我想設立一個貼近美國人民
13:44
why don't we set ourselves the goal
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和歐洲人民想法的目標,
13:46
of achieving a billion extra years of life for today's citizens.
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就是給現在的人民多十億年的壽命。
13:49
Now those are all goals which could be achieved within a decade,
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這些呢,都是十年內可以達到的目標,
13:53
but only with radical and systematic experiment,
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但絕對要有徹底而系統化的實驗精神,
13:57
not just with technologies, but also with lifestyles and culture
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不能只靠科技,也要靠我們改變生活型態、文化、
14:01
and policies and institutions too.
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政策和組織機構等。
14:05
Now, I want to end by saying a little bit about what I think this means for capitalism.
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最後,我想談談金融危機對資本主義有什麼意義。
14:11
I think what this is all about, this whole movement
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我覺得我們所談的這整個趨勢,
14:13
which is growing from the margins, remains quite small.
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還在發展階段,規模還很小,
14:16
Nothing like the resources of a CERN or a DARPA or an IBM or a Dupont.
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吸引不到像歐洲核子研究組織(CERN)、美國國防高級研究計畫局(DARPA)、IBM或杜邦所會投入的資源,
14:20
What it's telling us is that capitalism is going to become more social.
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這代表的是資本主義會變得比較社會化。
14:24
It's already immersed in social networks.
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資本主義已經融入了社交網絡,
14:26
It will become more involved in social investment, and social care
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資本主義會參與更多的社會投資和社會關懷,
14:31
and in industries where the value comes from what you do with others,
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而對於那些價值來自你和他人互動的產業,
14:35
not just from what you sell to them,
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價值不只在於你賣出的東西,
14:38
and from relationships as well as from consumption.
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而在於關係的建立,也在於消費。
14:41
But interestingly too, it implies a future where society learns a few tricks from capitalism
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但同樣有趣的是,這意味著未來整個社會會向資本主義學習,
14:46
about how you embed the DNA of restless continual innovation
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學習如何把持續創新求變的基因植入社會,
14:50
into society, trying things out and then growing and scaling the ones that work.
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嘗試不同方法之後,培育和擴大那些可行方案。
14:57
Now, I think this future will be quite surprising to many people.
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我想這種未來對很多人來說會蠻出乎意料的。
15:01
In recent years, a lot of intelligent people thought that capitalism had basically won.
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近年來,很多聰明的人都認為資本主義基本上贏了。
15:06
History was over
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歷史已經過去,
15:08
and society would inevitably have to take second place to economy.
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而社會難免要墊在經濟之後。
15:13
But I've been struck with a parallel in how people often talk about capitalism today
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但我很訝異的是,人們談起現今的資本主義,
15:18
and how they talked about the monarchy 200 years ago,
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竟和他們談起200年前法國大革命之後,
15:21
just after the French Revolution and the restoration of the monarchy in France.
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要求法國君主復辟的論調一樣。
15:25
Then, people said monarchy dominated everywhere
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那時候,人們說各地都需要君主制度,
15:28
because it was rooted in human nature.
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因為這是基於人性考量,
15:30
We were naturally deferential. We needed hierarchy.
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我們天生擅於順從,我們需要階級。
15:33
Just as today, the enthusiasts of unrestrained capitalism
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就像現在,無限制資本主義的擁護者
15:37
say it's rooted in human nature,
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也說這是基於人性考量,
15:39
only now it's individualism, inquisitiveness, and so on.
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因為我們愛好個人主義、愛探別人隱私。
15:42
Then monarchy had seen off its big challenger, mass democracy,
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然後君主制被民主這個挑戰者擊敗,
15:47
which was seen as a well-intentioned but doomed experiment,
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我們認為民主是立意良善、一定要進行的實驗,
15:50
just as capitalism has seen off socialism.
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就像資本主義送走社會主義一樣。
15:53
Even Fidel Castro now says that the only thing worse
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連卡斯楚現在都說,
15:56
than being exploited by multinational capitalism
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唯一比被各國資本主義剝削更糟的事,
15:58
is not being exploited by multinational capitalism.
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是沒有被各國資本主義剝削。
16:03
And whereas then monarchies, palaces and forts dominated every city skyline
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以前的君主用皇宮和堡壘,統治著各個城市,
16:07
and looked permanent and confident,
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看起來恆久又自信,
16:09
today it's the gleaming towers of the banks which dominate every big city.
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今天則是閃耀的銀行大樓,主宰著各個大城市。
16:13
I'm not suggesting the crowds are about to storm the barricades
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我不是在暗示群眾去攻擊這些銀行大樓,
16:16
and string up every investment banker from the nearest lamppost,
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或是把所有投資銀行家綁在最近的路燈柱上,
16:20
though that might be quite tempting.
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雖然這可能蠻吸引人的。
16:22
But I do think we're on the verge of a period when,
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但我想我們目前所處的階段,
16:25
just as happened to the monarchy and, interestingly, the military too,
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就像是要結束君主制度和軍事政權一樣,
16:29
the central position of finance capital is going to come to an end,
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金融首都的中心地位即將告一段落,
16:33
and it's going to steadily move to the sides, the margins of our society,
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它將漸漸地移轉到旁邊,移到我們社會的邊緣,
16:37
transformed from being a master into a servant,
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從主人轉變成僕人,
16:40
a servant to the productive economy and of human needs.
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為生產性經濟和人類需求效力。
16:44
And as that happens,
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當這件事實現時,
16:46
we will remember something very simple and obvious about capitalism,
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我們將會記得資本主義是一個相當簡單又明白的事,
16:49
which is that, unlike what you read in economics textbooks,
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不像你在經濟學教科書上讀的,
16:52
it's not a self-sufficient system.
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這並不是自給自足的系統,
16:55
It depends on other systems,
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還必須依賴其他系統,
16:57
on ecology, on family, on community,
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像生態學、家庭、社群等,
17:00
and if these aren't replenished, capitalism suffers too.
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而如果這些系統沒有滿足,資本主義也會跟著遭殃。
17:04
And our human nature isn't just selfish, it's also compassionate.
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我們的人性不只有自私,還有同情;
17:09
It's not just competitive, it's also caring.
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不只會競爭,還會關懷。
17:14
Because of the depth of the crisis, I think we are at a moment of choice.
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這次的金融危機衝擊很大,我認為我們選擇的時刻到了。
17:19
The crisis is almost certainly deepening around us.
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這次的金融危機幾乎可以說愈來愈糟,
17:22
It will be worse at the end of this year,
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今年年底會更糟,
17:24
quite possibly worse in a year's time than it is today.
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一年以後可能還會更糟。
17:27
But this is one of those very rare moments
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但這也是史上少見的時刻,
17:30
when we have to choose whether we're just pedaling furiously
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我們必須選擇,我們到底是要瘋狂地
17:33
to get back to where we were a year or two ago,
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找回我們一、兩年前的處境,
17:36
and a very narrow idea of what the economy is for,
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回到我們自以為是的狹隘經濟理念,
17:40
or whether this is a moment to jump ahead, to reboot
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還是我們要利用此刻往前跳,重新出發,
17:45
and to do some of the things we probably should have been doing anyway.
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並做一些我們或許本來就該去做的事情。
17:48
Thank you.
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謝謝。
17:50
(Applause)
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(掌聲)
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