Can clouds buy us more time to solve climate change? | Kate Marvel

Prevodilac: Milenka Okuka Lektor: Mile Živković

I am a climate scientist,

Ja sam klimatološkinja

and I hate weather.

i mrzim vremenske prilike.

I have spent too much time in California,

Provela sam previše vremena u Kaliforniji

and I strongly feel that weather should be optional.

i čvrsto verujem da bi vreme trebalo da bude opciono.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

So I don't want to experience clouds,

Dakle, ne želim da vidim oblake,

let alone study them.

još manje da ih izučavam.

But clouds seem to follow me wherever I go.

Međutim, čini se da me oblaci prate kuda god da krenem.

The thing is, clouds are a real challenge for climate science.

Radi se o tome da su oblaci istinski izazov za klimatologiju.

We don't know how they're going to react as the planet heats up,

Ne znamo kako će da reaguju kako se planeta bude zagrevala,

and hidden in that uncertainty

a skrivena u toj neizvesnosti

might be hope.

bi mogla da bude nada.

Maybe, just maybe,

Možda, ali možda,

clouds could slow down global warming,

oblaci bi mogli da uspore globalno zagrevanje

and buy us a little bit more time to get our act together,

i da nam kupe još malo vremena da se organizujemo,

which would be very convenient right now.

a to bi nam prilično odgovaralo u ovom trenutku.

I mean, even I could put up with a few more cloudy days

Mislim, čak i ja bih mogla da podnesem još nekoliko oblačnih dana,

if clouds saved the planet.

kad bi oblaci spasili planetu.

Now, we are sure about some things.

Sad, sigurni smo u vezi s nekim stvarima.

Carbon dioxide is a greenhouse gas,

Ugljen-dioksid izaziva efekat staklene bašte,

we're emitting a lot of it,

otpuštamo ga previše,

and the planet is heating up.

i planeta se zagreva.

Case closed.

Slučaj zaključen.

But I still go to work every day.

Ali ja i dalje idem na posao svaki dan.

It turns out that there is a lot that we don't understand

Ispostavlja se da ima mnogo toga što ne razumemo

about climate change.

kod klimatskih promena.

In particular, we haven't answered

Tačnije, nismo odgovorili

what seems to be a very fundamental question.

na nešto što se čini krajnje temeljnim pitanjem.

We know it's going to get hot,

Znamo da će da bude vruće,

but we don't know exactly how hot it's going to get.

ali ne znamo tačno koliko vruće će da bude.

Now, this is a really easy question to answer

Sad, na ovo pitanje je zaista lako odgovoriti,

if one of you would like to give me a time machine.

kad bi mi neko od vas dao vremeplov.

But I'm going to be honest with you:

Ali reći ću vam iskreno:

if I had a time machine,

kad bih imala vremeplov,

I would not be hanging out at this particular point in history.

ne bih se vrzmala baš po ovoj tački u istoriji.

So in order to see the future,

Pa, kako bismo videli budućnost,

we have to rely on the output of computer simulations --

moramo da se oslonimo na izveštaje kompjuterskih simulacija -

climate models, like this one.

klimatske modele, poput ovog.

Now, in my line of work,

Sad, u mom poslu,

I encounter many very charming people on the internet

susrećem mnoge veoma šarmantne ljude na internetu

who like to tell me that climate models are all wrong.

koji vole da mi kažu da su klimatski modeli skroz pogrešni.

And I would just like to say:

I ja bih samo želela da kažem:

no kidding!

ne zezajte!

Seriously? I get paid to complain about climate models.

Ozbiljno? Plaćaju me da se žalim na klimatske modele.

But we don't want models to be perfect.

Međutim, mi ne želimo da modeli budu savršeni.

We want them to be useful.

Želimo da budu korisni.

I mean, think about it:

Mislim, razmislite o tome:

a computer simulation

kompjuterska simulacija

that's able to exactly reproduce all of reality.

koja je u stanju da tačno reprodukuje kompletnu stvarnost.

That's not a climate model;

To nije klimatski model;

That's "The Matrix."

to je "Matriks".

So, models are not crystal balls.

Dakle, modeli nisu kristalne kugle.

They're research tools,

Oni su istraživačko oruđe,

and the ways in which they're wrong can actually teach us a lot.

a tipovi grešaka koje prave zapravo su poprilično poučni.

For example:

Na primer:

different climate models are largely able to capture

različiti klimatski modeli su velikim delom u satanju da obuhvate

the warming that we've seen so far.

zagrevanje koje smo do sad videli.

But fast-forward to the end of the century

Međutim, premotajte do kraja veka,

under a business-as-usual scenario,

pri uobičajenom scenariju,

and climate models don't really agree anymore.

i klimatski modeli se više zaista ne podudaraju.

Yeah, they're all warming; that's just basic physics.

Da, svi pokazuju zagrevanje; to je prosto osnovna fizika.

But some of them project catastrophe --

Ali neki od njih prikazuju katastrofu -

more than five times the warming we've seen already.

zagrevanje pet puta veće od onog koje smo videli.

And others are literally more chill.

A drugi su bukvalno opušteniji.

So why don't climate models agree on how warm it's going to get?

Dakle, zašto se klimatski modeli ne slažu oko toga koliko toplo će da bude?

Well, to a large extent,

Pa, u velikoj meri

it's because they don't agree on what clouds will do in the future.

je tako jer se ne slažu oko toga kako će se oblaci ponašati u budućnosti.

And that is because, just like me,

A to je zato što, baš kao i ja,

computers hate clouds.

kompjuteri mrze oblake.

Computers hate clouds because they're simultaneously very large

Kompjuteri mrze oblake jer su istovremeno veoma veliki

and very small.

i veoma mali.

Clouds are formed

Oblaci nastaju

when microscopic water droplets or ice crystals coalesce

kada se mikroskopske kapljice vode ili kristali leda sjedine

around tiny particles.

oko sićušnih čestica.

But at the same time, they cover two-thirds of the earth's surface.

A istovremeno, prekrivaju dve trećine zemljine površine.

In order to really accurately model clouds,

Kako bismo zaista precizno napravili model oblaka,

we'd need to track the behavior of every water droplet and dust grain

morali bismo da pratimo ponašanje svake vodene kapljice i zrna prašine

in the entire atmosphere,

u čitavoj atmosferi,

and there's no computer powerful enough to do that.

a ne postoji dovoljno jak kompjuter da to obavi.

So instead, we have to make a trade-off:

Te, umesto toga moramo da pravimo kompromis:

we can zoom in and get the details right,

možemo da zumiramo i pravilno razumemo detalje,

but have no idea what's going on worldwide;

ali nemamo predstavu o tome šta se dešava širom sveta;

or, we could sacrifice realism at small scales

ili možemo da žrtvujemo realizam na manjim razmerama,

in order to see the bigger picture.

kako bismo videli širi okvir.

Now, there's no one right answer,

Sad, nema tačnog odgovora,

no perfect way to do this,

nema savršenog načina za to,

and different climate models make different choices.

a različiti klimatski modeli donose različite odluke.

Now, it is unfortunate

Sad, nije dobro

that computers struggle with clouds,

to što se kompjuteri muče s oblacima

because clouds are crucially important

jer su oblaci zapravo veoma važni

in regulating the temperature of the planet.

za regulisanje temperature naše planete.

In fact, if all the clouds went away,

Zapravo, kad bi svi oblaci nestali,

we would experience profound climate changes.

doživeli bismo suštinske klimatske promene.

But without clouds,

Međutim, da li bi bez oblaka

would it be warmer or colder?

bilo toplije ili hladnije?

The answer is both.

Odgovor je oboje.

So I'm going to be honest with you, I am not a cloud spotter.

Biću iskrena prema vama, nisam ljubiteljka oblaka.

My favorite type of cloud is none.

Moj omiljeni tip oblaka ne postoji.

But even I know that clouds come in all shapes and sizes.

Ali čak i ja znam da oblaci dolaze u svim oblicima i veličinama.

Low, thick clouds like these are really good at blocking out the sun

Niski, gusti oblaci, poput ovih, zaista su dobri u blokiranju sunca

and ruining your barbecue,

i uništavanju roštilja,

and high, wispy clouds like these cirrus

a visoki, paperjasti oblaci, poput ovih cirusa,

largely let that sunlight stream through.

uglavnom propuštaju sunčeve zrake.

Every sunny day is the same,

Svaki sunčani dan je isti,

but every cloudy day is cloudy in its own way.

ali svaki oblačan dan je oblačan na svoj način.

And it's this diversity

A zbog ove različitosti

that can make the global impact of clouds very hard to understand.

može da bude teško shvatiti globalni uticaj oblaka.

So to see this global effect of clouds,

Da bi se video globalni efekat oblaka,

it really helps to take a selfie.

zaista pomaže kad se napravi selfi.

It will never cease to blow my mind

Uvek će me oduševljavati

that we can see our planet from outer space,

to što možemo da vidimo našu planetu iz svemira,

but we can't see all of it.

ali ne možemo da je vidimo celu.

Clouds are blocking the view.

Oblaci blokiraju pogled.

That's what they do.

Takvi su oni.

These low, thick clouds are extremely effective sunshades.

Ovi niski, gusti oblaci su izuzetno efikasan suncobran.

They turn back about 20 percent of everything the sun sends us.

Oni vraćaju oko 20 procenata svega što nam sunce šalje.

That is a lot of wasted solar power.

To je mnogo protraćene sunčeve energije.

So, low clouds are powerful sunshades,

Dakle, niski oblaci su moćan suncobran,

making the planet cooler.

rashlađuju planetu.

But that's not the only effect of clouds.

Međutim, to nije jedini efekat oblaka.

Our planet has a temperature,

Naša planeta ima temperaturu

and like anything with a temperature,

i, kao i sve sa temperaturom,

it's giving off heat.

otpušta toplotu.

We are radiating thermal energy away into space,

Zračimo toplotnu energiju u svemir

and we can see this in the infrared.

i to je vidljivo na infracrvenom snimku.

Once again, clouds are blocking the view.

Još jednom, oblaci blokiraju vidik.

That's because high clouds live in the upper reaches of the atmosphere,

To je zato što visoki oblaci obitavaju u gornjim dometima atmosfere,

where it's very cold.

gde je veoma hladno.

And this means that they lose very little heat to space themselves.

A to znači da oni sami gube veoma malo toplote u svemiru.

But at the same time, they block the heat coming up from the planet below.

Ali istovremeno blokiraju toplotu koja dolazi sa planete ispod.

The earth is trying to cool itself off,

Zemlja pokušava samu sebe da rashladi,

and high clouds are getting in the way.

a visoki oblaci joj preprečuju put.

The result is a very powerful greenhouse effect.

Rezultat je veoma snažan efekat staklene bašte.

So, clouds play this very large and dual role

Dakle, oblaci igraju tu veoma veliku i dvostruku igru

in the climate system.

u klimatskom sistemu.

We've got low clouds that act like a sunshade,

Imamo niske oblake koji se ponašaju kao suncobran,

cooling the planet,

rashlađuju planetu,

and high clouds which act like a greenhouse,

i visoke oblake koji se ponašaju poput staklene bašte,

warming the planet.

zagrevaju planetu.

Right now, these two effects -- they don't cancel out.

Upravo sad, ova dva efekta - ne poništavaju se.

That sunshade -- it's a little bit more powerful.

Taj suncobran - malčice je moćniji.

So if we got rid of all the clouds tomorrow,

Pa, kad bismo se otarasili svih oblaka sutra,

which, for the record, I am not advocating,

za šta se, samo da se zna, ne zalažem,

our planet would get warmer.

naša planeta bi bila toplija.

So clearly, all of the clouds are not going away.

Dakle, očito, svi oblaci neće nestati.

But climate change is change.

Ali klimatska promena je promena.

So we can ask:

Pa, možemo da se zapitamo:

How will global warming change clouds?

kako će globalno zagrevanje da promeni oblake?

But remember, clouds are so important

Zapamtite, oblaci su veoma važni

in regulating the earth's temperature,

za regulisanje zemljine temperature

and they both warm and cool the planet.

i oni i zagrevaju i rashlađuju planetu.

So even small changes to cloud cover

Te čak i male promene u oblačnom prekrivaču

could have profound consequences.

mogu da imaju suštinske posledice.

So we might also ask:

Pa bismo takođe mogli da se zapitamo:

How will clouds change global warming?

kako će oblaci da promene globalno zagrevanje?

And that is where there might be space for hope.

A tu možda ima prostora za nadu.

If global warming triggers cloud changes

Ako globalno zagrevanje pokrene promene u oblacima

that make for a less powerful greenhouse or a more effective sunshade,

koje će da uzrokuju manje snažan efekat staklene bašte ili efikasniji suncobran,

then that would enhance the cooling power of clouds.

onda će to da poveća rashladnu moć oblaka.

It would act in opposition to global warming,

To će da deluje u suprotnosti sa globalnim zagrevanjem,

and that's what's happening in those climate models

a to se dešava na klimatskim modelima

that project relatively muted warming.

koji predskazuju relativno ublaženo zagrevanje.

But climate models struggle with clouds,

Međutim, klimatski modeli se muče s oblacima,

and this uncertainty -- it goes both ways.

a ova neizvesnost - kreće se u oba pravca.

Clouds could help us out with global warming.

Oblaci bi mogli da nam pomognu kod globalnog zagrevanja.

They could also make it worse.

Takođe bi mogli da ga pogoršaju.

Now, we know that climate change is happening

Sad, znamo da su klimatske promene u toku

because we can see it:

jer možemo da ih vidimo:

rising temperatures, melting icecaps, shifts in rainfall patterns.

porast temperature, topljenje lednika, izmene u obrascu kišnih padavina.

And you might think that we could also see it in the clouds.

I rekli biste da takođe možemo da ih vidimo u slučaju oblaka.

But here's something else unfortunate:

Međutim, tu imamo još jednu nesreću:

clouds are really hard to see.

oblake je zaista teško videti.

I see everybody from the Pacific Northwest

Vidim da su svi sa pacifičkog severozapada

is like, "I have some suggestions for you."

u fazonu: "Imam par predloga za tebe."

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

And you guys, we have tried looking up.

I, ljudi, probali smo da gledamo nagore.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

But in order to do climate science,

Ali, kako bismo se bavili klimatologijom,

we need to see all of the clouds, everywhere, for a very long time.

moramo da vidimo sve oblake, svuda, tokom veoma dugog perioda.

And that's what makes it hard.

A zbog toga je teško.

Now, nothing sees more clouds than a satellite --

Sad, ništa ne gleda više oblaka od satelita -

not even a British person.

čak ni Britanci.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

And fortunately, we do have satellite observations of clouds

I srećom imamo satelitska posmatranja oblaka

that, like me, date back to the 1980s.

koja, baš kao i ja, potiču iz 1980-ih.

But these satellites were designed for weather,

Ali ovi sateliti su napravljeni za vremenske prilike,

not climate.

ne za klimatske.

They weren't in it for the long haul.

Nije trebalo da se time bave dugoročno.

So to get that long-term trend information,

Kako bismo dobili informacije o dugoročnom trendu,

we need to do climate science.

moramo da se bavimo klimatologijom.

We have to stitch together the output of multiple satellites

Moramo da spojimo rezultate velikog broja satelita

with different viewing angles and orbits

sa različitim uglovima posmatranja i orbitama

and carrying different camera equipment.

i onima koji nose različitu optičku opremu.

And as a result,

A rezultat toga

there are gaps in our knowledge.

su rupe u našem znanju.

But even from this very cloudy picture,

No čak i iz ove krajnje nejasne slike,

we're starting to get hints of a possible future.

počinjemo da dobijamo nagoveštaje izgledne budućnosti.

When we looked at the observations,

Kada smo proveravali opservacije,

one thing jumped out at us:

jedno se izdvojilo:

the clouds are moving.

oblaci se pomeraju.

As the planet's temperature increases,

Kako se temperatura planete povećava,

high clouds rise up.

visoki oblaci se dižu.

They move to the colder upper reaches of the atmosphere,

Pomeraju se ka hladnijim, gornjim domašajima atmosfere,

and this means that even as the planet heats up,

a to znači da čak i kad se planeta zagreva,

high clouds don't.

visoki oblaci se ne zagrevaju.

They remain at roughly the same temperature.

Ostaju sa otprilike istom temperaturom.

So they are not losing more heat to space.

Dakle, ne odaju više toplote u svemir.

But at the same time, they're trapping more heat

Ali istovremeno zarobljavaju više toplote

from the warming planet below.

od planete ispod koja se zagrejava.

This intensifies the greenhouse effect.

Ovo pojačava efekat staklene bašte.

High clouds are making global warming worse.

Zbog visokih oblaka globalno zagrevanje postaje gore.

Clouds are moving in other dimensions, too.

Oblaci se pomeraju i u drugim dimenzijama.

The atmospheric circulation, that large-scale motion

Atmosfersko kruženje, to kretanje velikih razmera

of air and water in the atmosphere,

vazduha i vode u atmosferi,

is changing,

menja se,

and clouds are going with it.

a oblaci ga prate.

On large scales,

Na velikim razmerama,

clouds seem to be moving from the tropics toward the poles.

čini se da se oblaci sele iz tropskih oblasti ka polovima.

It's kind of like your grandparents in reverse.

Nalik obrnutom kretanju vaših deka i baka.

And this matters,

A ovo je važno

because if your job is to block incoming sunlight,

jer, ako vam je posao da blokirate sunčevu svetlost,

you are going to be much more effective in the tropics

bićete daleko efikasniji u tropskim predelima

under that intense tropical sun

ispod jakog tropskog sunca

than you are in higher latitudes.

nego na višim geografskim širinama.

So if this keeps up,

Pa, ako se ovo nastavi,

this will also make global warming worse.

i ono će da pogorša globalno zagrevanje.

And what we have not found,

A nismo pronašli,

despite years of looking,

uprkos traganja godinama,

is any indication of the opposite.

nagoveštaj da će se desiti suprotno.

There is no observational evidence

Nema zabeleženih dokaza

that clouds will substantially slow down global warming.

da će oblaci značajno da uspore globalno zagrevanje.

The earth is not going to break its own fever.

Zemlja neće samoj sebi da izleči groznicu.

Now, there are still uncertainties here.

Sad, ovde imamo neke neizvesnosti.

We don't know for sure

Ne znamo zasigurno

what the future holds.

šta će da se desi u budućnosti.

But we are sending our kids there,

Ali šaljemo decu tamo,

and they are never coming back.

i za njih nema povratka.

I want them to be prepared for what they'll face,

Želim da budu spremna za ono sa čim će se suočiti

and that is why it is so important

i zato je toliko važno

to keep our earth-observing satellites up there

da održavamo satelite gore koji posmatraju zemlju

and to hire diverse and smart and talented people

i da zapošljavamo različite, pametne i talentovane ljude

who do not hate clouds

koji ne mrze oblake

to improve the climate models.

kako bismo unapredili klimatske modele.

But uncertainty is not ignorance.

Međutim, neizvesnost nije neznanje.

We don't know everything,

Ne znamo sve,

but we don't know nothing,

ali znamo više od ništa

and we know what carbon dioxide does.

i znamo šta uzrokuje ugljen-dioksid.

I started my career as an astrophysicist,

Započela sam karijeru kao astrofizičarka,

so you can believe me

pa možete da mi verujete

when I say that this is the greatest place in the universe.

kad kažem da je ovo najbolje mesto u univerzumu.

Other planets might have liquid water.

Druge planete možda i imaju tečnu vodu.

On earth, we have whiskey.

Na zemlji imamo viski.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

(Applause)

(Aplauz)

We are so lucky to live here,

Veoma smo srećni što živimo ovde,

but let's not push our luck.

ali ne izazivajmo sreću.

I don't think that clouds will save the planet.

Ne mislim da će oblaci da spase planetu.

I think that's probably up to us.

Mislim da je to verovatno na nama.

Thank you.

Hvala vam.

(Applause)

(Aplauz)