Pankaj Ghemawat: Actually, the world isn't flat

181,970 views ・ 2012-10-22

TED


μ•„λž˜ μ˜λ¬Έμžλ§‰μ„ λ”λΈ”ν΄λ¦­ν•˜μ‹œλ©΄ μ˜μƒμ΄ μž¬μƒλ©λ‹ˆλ‹€.

00:00
Translator: Joseph Geni Reviewer: Morton Bast
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λ²ˆμ—­: jaehee cho κ²€ν† : ahra cho
00:15
I'm here to talk to you about how globalized we are,
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이 μžλ¦¬μ—μ„œ μ €λŠ” μš°λ¦¬κ°€ μ–Όλ§ˆλ‚˜ μ„Έκ³„ν™”λ˜μ–΄ μžˆλŠ”μ§€
00:20
how globalized we aren't,
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ν˜Ήμ€ 그렇지 μ•Šμ€μ§€μ— κ΄€ν•΄μ„œ 이야기λ₯Ό ν•΄ 볼까 ν•©λ‹ˆλ‹€.
00:22
and why it's important to actually be accurate
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그리고 μ„Έκ³„ν™”μ˜ μˆ˜μ€€μ„ 평가 내릴 λ•Œ
00:26
in making those kinds of assessments.
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κ·Έκ²ƒμ˜ 정확도가 μ™œ μ€‘μš”ν•œκ°€μ— κ΄€ν•΄μ„œλ„ μ΄μ•ΌκΈ°ν•˜κ³ μž ν•©λ‹ˆλ‹€.
00:29
And the leading point of view on this, whether measured
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이 μ΄μ•ΌκΈ°μ˜ μ£Όμš” 관점은
00:32
by number of books sold, mentions in media,
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세계화λ₯Ό 닀룬 μ±…μ˜ νŒλ§€λΆ€μˆ˜λ‚˜ λ―Έλ””μ–΄μ˜ μ–ΈκΈ‰ 횟수,
00:37
or surveys that I've run with groups ranging from
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λ˜λŠ” 제 학생듀뢀터 WTO λŒ€ν‘œλ“€μ— 이λ₯΄κΈ°κΉŒμ§€μ˜ μ‚¬λžŒλ“€μ„
00:40
my students to delegates to the World Trade Organization,
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λŒ€μƒμœΌλ‘œ μ‹€μ‹œν•œ 섀문쑰사 λ“± λ‹€μ–‘ν•œ μ—°κ΅¬μ—μ„œ
00:44
is this view that national borders
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μ‚¬λžŒλ“€μ˜ 생각이 λ‚˜λΌκ°„μ˜ ꡭ경은
00:47
really don't matter very much anymore,
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μ •λ§λ‘œ 더 이상 μ€‘μš”ν•˜μ§€ μ•Šλ‹€λŠ” μ‹œκ°μž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
00:50
cross-border integration is close to complete,
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ꡭ경의 톡합은 거의 μ™„μ„±λ˜κΈ° μ§μ „μ—κΉŒμ§€ 와 있고,
00:55
and we live in one world.
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μš°λ¦¬λŠ” 사싀상 ν•˜λ‚˜μ˜ 세계 μ†μ—μ„œ μ‚΄κ³  μžˆλ‹€λŠ” 생각이죠.
00:57
And what's interesting about this view
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μ΄λŸ¬ν•œ μ‹œκ°μ—μ„œ ν₯미둜운 점은,
00:59
is, again, it's a view that's held by pro-globalizers
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ν†° ν”„λ¦¬λ“œλ§Œ 같은 세계화 μ˜Ήν˜Έλ‘ μžλ“€μ˜ μ±…μ—μ„œ 발췌된
01:03
like Tom Friedman, from whose book this quote is obviously excerpted,
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것듀이 λΆ„λͺ…ν•œ μ‹œκ°λ“€μ΄λΌλŠ” κ²ƒμž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
01:07
but it's also held by anti-globalizers, who see this giant
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ν•˜μ§€λ§Œ λ°˜μ„Έκ³„ν™”μ£Όμ˜μžλ“€μ—κ²Œλ„ μ΄λŸ¬ν•œ κ±°λŒ€ν•œ μ„Έκ³„ν™”μ˜ μ“°λ‚˜λ―Έκ°€ 우리의 삢을 λ§κ°€λœ¨λ¦¬μ§€ μ•Šμ•˜λ‹€λ©΄,
01:11
globalization tsunami that's about to wreck all our lives
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우리의 λͺ¨λ“  삢을 λ§κ°€λœ¨λ¦¬κΈ° μ§μ „μž„μ„ λ³΄μ—¬μ£ΌλŠ” 근거둜 인용되고 μžˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
01:16
if it hasn't already done so.
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섀사 아직 그런 κ·Ήλ‹¨μ˜ 상황이 λ˜μ§€ μ•Šμ•˜λ”λΌ ν•˜λ”λΌλ„μš”.
01:19
The other thing I would add is that this is not a new view.
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μ œκ°€ μΆ”κ°€λ‘œ λ§μ”€λ“œλ¦¬κ³  싢은 것은 이것이 μ „ν˜€ μƒˆλ‘œμš΄ μ‹œκ°μ΄ μ•„λ‹ˆλΌλŠ” μ μž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
01:23
I'm a little bit of an amateur historian, so I've spent
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μ €λŠ” λ‹€μ†Œ μ•„λ§ˆμΈ„μ–΄ μ—­μ‚¬ν•™μžμ— 가깝기 λ•Œλ¬Έμ—,
01:27
some time going back, trying to see the first mention
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μ‹œκ°„μ„ 거슬러 μ˜¬λΌκ°€, 이와 같은 것듀을 처음으둜 μ–ΈκΈ‰ν•œ 자료λ₯Ό
01:31
of this kind of thing. And the best, earliest quote
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μ°Ύμ•„λ³΄μ•˜μŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€. μ œκ°€ λ°œκ²¬ν•œ 졜초의 μžλ£ŒλŠ”
01:35
that I could find was one from David Livingstone,
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데이빗 λ¦¬λΉ™μŠ€ν†€μ΄ 1850λ…„λŒ€μ— 철도와 증기선 그리고
01:38
writing in the 1850s about how the railroad, the steam ship,
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전보가 μ–΄λ–»κ²Œ 동아프리카와 κ·Έλ°–μ˜ 세상을
01:44
and the telegraph were integrating East Africa perfectly
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μ™„λ²½ν•˜κ²Œ ν†΅ν•©μ‹œν‚€κ³  μžˆλŠ”μ§€μ— λŒ€ν•΄
01:49
with the rest of the world.
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μ“΄ κΈ€μ΄μ—ˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
01:52
Now clearly, David Livingstone
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λΆ„λͺ…νžˆ 데이빗 λ¦¬λΉ™μŠ€ν†€μ€
01:54
was a little bit ahead of his time,
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μ–Όλ§ˆμ •λ„ μ‹œλŒ€λ₯Ό μ•žμ„œκ°„ μ‚¬λžŒμ΄μ—ˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
01:57
but it does seem useful to ask ourselves,
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ν•˜μ§€λ§Œ μš°λ¦¬κ°€ μ–΄λ””μ—μ„œ μ–΄λ””λ‘œ κ°€λŠ”μ§€λ₯Ό μƒκ°ν•˜κΈ°μ— μ•žμ„œ
02:01
"Just how global are we?"
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"μš°λ¦¬λŠ” κ³Όμ—° μ–Όλ§ˆλ‚˜ 세계적인가?"
02:03
before we think about where we go from here.
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라고 μŠ€μŠ€λ‘œμ—κ²Œ λ¬Όμ–΄λ³΄λŠ” 것이 더 μœ μš©ν•΄ λ³΄μž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
02:06
So the best way I've found of trying to get people
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μ €λŠ” μ‚¬λžŒλ“€λ‘œ ν•˜μ—¬κΈˆ μ„Έκ³„λŠ” μ–΄μ©Œλ©΄ ν‰ν‰ν•˜μ§€λ„ μ•Šμ„ λΏλ”λŸ¬(세계화가 λ˜μ§€ μ•Šμ•˜μœΌλ©°),
02:10
to take seriously the idea that the world may not be flat,
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평평해지기 직전도 μ•„λ‹ˆλΌλŠ” 생각을 λ°›μ•„ 듀이도둝 ν•˜λŠ”λ° μžˆμ–΄
02:15
may not even be close to flat, is with some data.
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λͺ‡κ°€μ§€ 자료λ₯Ό λ³΄μ—¬μ£ΌλŠ” 것이 μ΅œμ„ μ˜ λ°©λ²•μž„μ„ μ•Œκ²Œ λ˜μ—ˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
02:19
So one of the things I've been doing over the last few years
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μ œκ°€ μ§€λ‚œ λͺ‡λ…„κ°„ μ—°κ΅¬ν•œ 자료 κ°€μš΄λ° ν•˜λ‚˜λŠ”
02:22
is really compiling data on things that could either happen
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κ΅­κ²½μ΄λ‚˜ ꡭ경을 λ„˜μ–΄μ„œ λ²Œμ–΄μ§ˆ 수 μžˆλŠ” 일듀에 λŒ€ν•΄
02:26
within national borders or across national borders,
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μ‘°μ‚¬ν•œ 것을 μ’…ν•©ν•œ κ²ƒμž…λ‹ˆλ‹€. 여기에 덧뢙여
02:31
and I've looked at the cross-border component
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ꡭ경을 λ›°μ–΄λ„˜λŠ” 것듀도 세계화에 κ΄€ν•œ μ „μ²΄μ˜ λΆ€λΆ„μ—μ„œ
02:34
as a percentage of the total.
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μ°¨μ§€ν•˜λŠ” 비쀑에 λŒ€ν•΄μ„œ λ§ν•΄λ³΄κ² μŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
02:36
I'm not going to present all the data that I have here today,
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였늘 μ œκ°€ κ°–κ³  μžˆλŠ” 자료λ₯Ό λ‹€ λ³΄μ—¬λ“œλ¦¬μ§€λŠ” μ•Šκ² μŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
02:40
but let me just give you a few data points.
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λŒ€μ‹  λͺ‡ 가지 μ€‘μš”ν•œ κ²ƒλ§Œ λ³΄μ—¬λ“œλ¦¬μ£ .
02:44
I'm going to talk a little bit about one kind of information flow,
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정보와 인ꡬ 그리고 자본의 이동에 κ΄€ν•œ
02:48
one kind of flow of people, one kind of flow of capital,
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이야기λ₯Ό ν•΄λ³ΌκΉŒ ν•©λ‹ˆλ‹€.
02:53
and, of course, trade in products and services.
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λ¬Όλ‘  μƒν’ˆκ³Ό μ„œλΉ„μŠ€μ˜ ꡐ역에 κ΄€ν•œ κ²ƒλ„μš”.
02:57
So let's start off with plain old telephone service.
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자, μ΄μ œλŠ” ꡬ식이라고 ν•  수 μžˆλŠ” μ „ν™” 사업뢀터 μ‚΄νŽ΄λ³΄κ² μŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
03:01
Of all the voice-calling minutes in the world last year,
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μ§€λ‚œν•΄ μ „μ„Έκ³„μ˜ λͺ¨λ“  μŒμ„± μ „ν™” μ‚¬μš© μ‹œκ°„ κ°€μš΄λ°
03:06
what percentage do you think were accounted for
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κ³Όμ—° λͺ‡ νΌμ„ΌνŠΈλ‚˜ ꡭ제 μ „ν™”μ˜€μœΌλ¦¬λΌ
03:11
by cross-border phone calls?
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μƒκ°ν•˜μ‹­λ‹ˆκΉŒ?
03:13
Pick a percentage in your own mind.
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ν•œλ²ˆ μƒκ°ν•΄λ³΄μ‹œκΈ° λ°”λžλ‹ˆλ‹€.
03:17
The answer turns out to be two percent.
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정닡은 2νΌμ„ΌνŠΈμž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
03:21
If you include Internet telephony, you might be able
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인터넷 μ „ν™”λ₯Ό ν¬ν•¨ν•˜λ©΄
03:25
to push this number up to six or seven percent,
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6~7νΌμ„ΌνŠΈλ‘œ μ˜¬λΌκ°ˆμ§€λ„ λͺ¨λ¦…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
03:28
but it's nowhere near what people tend to estimate.
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ν•˜μ§€λ§Œ μ‚¬λžŒλ“€μ΄ μƒκ°ν•˜λŠ” κ²ƒκ³ΌλŠ” 큰 차이가 μžˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
03:33
Or let's turn to people moving across borders.
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이제 ꡭ경을 λ„˜λ‚˜λ“œλŠ” μ‚¬λžŒλ“€ μ°¨λ‘€μž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
03:36
One particular thing we might look at, in terms of
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μš°λ¦¬κ°€ μ‚΄νŽ΄λ³Ό ν•œ 가지,
03:40
long-term flows of people, is what percentage
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μž₯기간에 걸친 인ꡬ의 이동 μΈ‘λ©΄μ—μ„œ 보면
03:43
of the world's population is accounted for
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κ³Όμ—° 이민 1μ„ΈλŒ€λŠ” 전세계 인ꡬ의
03:47
by first-generation immigrants?
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λͺ‡ νΌμ„ΌνŠΈλ‚˜ λ κΉŒμš”?
03:50
Again, please pick a percentage.
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자, ν•œλ²ˆ 생각 ν•΄λ³΄μ‹œκΈ° λ°”λžλ‹ˆλ‹€.
03:54
Turns out to be a little bit higher.
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μ „ν™”λ³΄λ‹€λŠ” μ•½κ°„ 더 λ†’κ²Œ λ‚˜μ™”λŠ”λ°μš”,
03:57
It's actually about three percent.
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μ•½ 3νΌμ„ΌνŠΈ κ°€λŸ‰μ΄ λ©λ‹ˆλ‹€.
04:00
Or think of investment. Take all the real investment
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νˆ¬μžμ— λŒ€ν•΄μ„œλ„ ν•œλ²ˆ 생각해 λ΄…μ‹œλ‹€.
04:05
that went on in the world in 2010.
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2010λ…„ μ „μ„Έκ³„μ—μ„œ 이루어진 λͺ¨λ“  투자λ₯Όμš”.
04:08
What percentage of that was accounted for
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κ³Όμ—° 전체 투자 λŒ€λΉ„ 외ꡭ인 νˆ¬μžλŠ”
04:11
by foreign direct investment?
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λͺ‡ νΌμ„ΌνŠΈμΌκΉŒμš”?
04:15
Not quite ten percent.
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10 νΌμ„ΌνŠΈκ°€ 채 λ˜μ§€ μ•ŠμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
04:18
And then finally, the one statistic
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λ§ˆμ§€λ§‰μœΌλ‘œ λ³΄μ—¬λ“œλ¦΄ μžλ£ŒλŠ”,
04:21
that I suspect many of the people in this room have seen:
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μ•„λ§ˆ μ—¬κΈ° 계신 λͺ¨λ“  뢄듀이 λ³΄μ…¨μœΌλ¦¬λΌ μƒκ°ν•˜λŠ”
04:24
the export-to-GDP ratio.
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GDP λŒ€λΉ„ 수좜 λΉ„μœ¨μž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
04:26
If you look at the official statistics, they typically indicate
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λ§Œμ•½ 곡식 ν†΅κ³„μžλ£Œλ₯Ό λ³Έλ‹€λ©΄, κ·Έ μˆ˜μΉ˜λŠ”
04:30
a little bit above 30 percent.
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30νΌμ„ΌνŠΈλ₯Ό μ•½κ°„ μ›ƒλŒ κ²ƒμž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
04:33
However, there's a big problem with the official statistics,
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ν•˜μ§€λ§Œ 곡식 μžλ£Œμ—λŠ” 큰 λ¬Έμ œκ°€ μžˆλŠ”λ°μš”,
04:38
in that if, for instance, a Japanese component supplier
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예λ₯Ό λ“€μ–΄ 일본 λΆ€ν’ˆ κ³΅κΈ‰μ—…μžκ°€
04:43
ships something to China to be put into an iPod,
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μ•„μ΄νŒŸμ— λ“€μ–΄κ°ˆ μ œν’ˆμ„ μ€‘κ΅­μœΌλ‘œ μˆ˜μΆœν•˜κ³ 
04:46
and then the iPod gets shipped to the U.S.,
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또 μ€‘κ΅­μ—μ„œ 쑰립된 μ•„μ΄νŒŸμ΄ 미ꡭ으둜 μˆ˜μΆœλœλ‹€λ©΄,
04:49
that component ends up getting counted multiple times.
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κ·Έ λΆ€ν’ˆμ˜ μˆ˜μΆœμ€ λͺ‡λ°°λ‘œ λΆˆμ–΄λ‚˜κ²Œ λ©λ‹ˆλ‹€.
04:53
So nobody knows how bad this bias
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κ·Έλž˜μ„œ 이와 같은 곡식 자료λ₯Ό ν†΅ν•œ νŒλ‹¨μ΄ μ–Όλ§ˆλ‚˜
04:56
with the official statistics actually is, so I thought I would
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치우쳐져 μžˆλŠ” κ²ƒμΈμ§€λŠ” 아무도 λͺ¨λ₯΄κ²Œ λ˜λŠ” κ²ƒμž…λ‹ˆλ‹€. κ·Έλž˜μ„œ μ „
05:00
ask the person who's spearheading the effort
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μ΄λŸ¬ν•œ μžλ£Œλ“€μ„ λ§Œλ“œλŠ”λ° μ•žμž₯ μ„  μ‚¬λžŒμ—κ²Œ
05:02
to generate data on this, Pascal Lamy,
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직접 λ¬Όμ–΄λ³΄μ•˜μŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
05:05
the Director of the World Trade Organization,
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WTO 의 쀑역 파슀칼 λΌλ―Έμ—κ²Œ 말이죠.
05:08
what his best guess would be
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κ·Έκ°€ μ˜ˆμƒν•˜λŠ”
05:10
of exports as a percentage of GDP,
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2,3배둜 뢀풀렀진 μˆ˜μΉ˜κ°€ μ•„λ‹Œ,
05:14
without the double- and triple-counting,
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전체 GDP λŒ€λΉ„ 수좜 λΉ„μœ¨μ€
05:16
and it's actually probably a bit under 20 percent, rather than
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μš°λ¦¬κ°€ μ•Œκ³  μžˆλŠ” 30 νΌμ„ΌνŠΈλ₯Ό μ›ƒλŒκΈ°λŠ” 컀녕
05:20
the 30 percent-plus numbers that we're talking about.
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20 νΌμ„ΌνŠΈμ— λͺ»λ―Έμ³€μŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
05:24
So it's very clear that if you look at these numbers
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λ§Œμ•½ μ—¬λŸ¬λΆ„μ΄ 이와 같은 μˆ˜μΉ˜λ‚˜ μ œκ°€ μ“΄ 'World 3.0' μ—μ„œ
05:28
or all the other numbers that I talk about in my book,
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μ–ΈκΈ‰ν•œ λͺ¨λ“  μˆ˜μΉ˜λ“€μ„ 보신닀면,
05:32
"World 3.0," that we're very, very far from
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사싀상 μš°λ¦¬λŠ” 85, 90, 95 νΌμ„ΌνŠΈ 순으둜 λ“œλŸ¬λ‚œ
05:36
the no-border effect benchmark, which would imply
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κ΅­μ œν™” μ§€μˆ˜λ₯Ό μ˜λ―Έν•˜λŠ” 'ꡭ경이 사라진 효과'μ™€λŠ”
05:40
internationalization levels of the order of 85, 90, 95 percent.
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μ „ν˜€ 상관이 μ—†λ‹€λŠ” 점을 λͺ…λ°±ν•˜κ²Œ μ•Œ 수 μžˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
05:47
So clearly, apocalyptically-minded authors
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λ¬΅μ‹œλ‘ μ μΈ μ €μžλ“€μ΄μ•Όλ§λ‘œ
05:51
have overstated the case.
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일뢀 사둀λ₯Ό 뢀풀리고 μžˆλ‹€λŠ” κ²ƒλ„μš”.
05:54
But it's not just the apocalyptics, as I think of them,
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ν•˜μ§€λ§Œ μ΄λŸ¬ν•œ μ’…λ₯˜μ˜ ν—ˆν’μ—
05:58
who are prone to this kind of overstatement.
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빠지기 μ‰¬μš΄ μ‚¬λžŒλ“€μ€ 이런 λ¬΅μ‹œλ‘ μ  μ €μžλ“€λΏλ§Œμ΄ μ•„λ‹™λ‹ˆλ‹€.
06:01
I've also spent some time surveying audiences
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μ΄λŸ¬ν•œ 세계화에 κ΄€ν•œ μˆ˜μΉ˜λ“€μ΄ μ–΄λŠ μ •λ„λ‚˜ 될지
06:05
in different parts of the world
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전세계 곳곳의 μ‚¬λžŒλ“€μ„ λŒ€μƒμœΌλ‘œ
06:07
on what they actually guess these numbers to be.
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쑰사λ₯Ό ν•΄λ³΄μ•˜μŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
06:11
Let me share with you the results of a survey
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ν•˜λ²„λ“œ λΉ„μ§€λ‹ˆμŠ€ 리뷰지가 λ…μžλ“€μ„ λŒ€μƒμœΌλ‘œ
06:14
that Harvard Business Review was kind enough to run
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일반 μ‚¬λžŒλ“€μ˜ 세계화에 λŒ€ν•œ 인식이 μ‹€μ œμ™€
06:17
of its readership as to what people's guesses
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μ–Όλ§ˆλ‚˜ λ‹€λ₯Έμ§€ μ„€λ¬Έμ‘°μ‚¬ν•œ κ²°κ³Όλ₯Ό
06:21
along these dimensions actually were.
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μ—¬λŸ¬λΆ„κ»˜ λ³΄μ—¬λ“œλ¦¬κ² μŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
06:25
So a couple of observations stand out for me from this slide.
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이 λ„ν‘œμ—μ„œ λˆˆμ— λ„λŠ” 뢀뢄이 λͺ‡ 개 μžˆλŠ”λ°μš”,
06:31
First of all, there is a suggestion of some error.
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첫번째둜, 였λ₯˜κ°€ 적지 μ•Šλ‹€λŠ” κ²ƒμž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
06:36
Okay. (Laughter)
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그리고 (μ›ƒμŒ)
06:39
Second, these are pretty large errors. For four quantities
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λ‘λ²ˆμ§Έλ‘œ, μ œλ²• μ»€λ‹€λž€ 였λ₯˜κ°€ μžˆλ‹€λŠ” κ²ƒμž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
06:44
whose average value is less than 10 percent,
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λ„ν‘œμ—μ„œ 4개 λΆ€λ¬Έμ˜ 평균값은 10νΌμ„ΌνŠΈ λ―Έλ§Œμ΄μ—ˆμŒμ—λ„
06:47
you have people guessing three, four times that level.
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μ‚¬λžŒλ“€μ€ μ‹€μ œ κ°’μ˜ 3, 4λ°° 이상이라고 μ˜ˆμƒν–ˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
06:51
Even though I'm an economist, I find that
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μ œκ°€ κ²½μ œν•™μžμž„μ—λ„
06:54
a pretty large error.
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κ½€λ‚˜ 큰 였λ₯˜λ“€μ„ λ°œκ²¬ν•  μ •λ„λ‘œ 말이죠.
06:57
And third, this is not just confined to the readers
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그리고 μ„Έλ²ˆμ§Έλ‘œ, 비단 ν•˜λ²„λ“œ λΉ„μ§€λ‹ˆμŠ€ 리뷰의
07:01
of the Harvard Business Review.
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λ…μžλ“€μ—κ²Œλ§Œ ν•œμ •λœ 것이 μ•„λ‹Œλ°μš”,
07:03
I've run several dozen such surveys in different parts
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전세계 κ³³κ³³μ—μ„œ μ΄λŸ¬ν•œ 쑰사듀을 ν•΄λ³Έ κ²°κ³Ό,
07:06
of the world, and in all cases except one,
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μ‚¬λžŒλ“€μ΄ GDP λŒ€λΉ„ ꡐ역 λΉ„μœ¨μ„ κ³Όμ†Œν‰κ°€ν•œ 곳을
07:09
where a group actually underestimated
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μ œμ™Έν•œ λͺ¨λ“  κ²½μš°μ—μ„œ
07:12
the trade-to-GDP ratio, people have this tendency
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μ‚¬λžŒλ“€μ€ 세계화에 λŒ€ν•œ 수치λ₯Ό κ³ΌλŒ€ν‰κ°€ν•˜λŠ”
07:17
towards overestimation, and so I thought it important
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κ²½ν–₯을 κ°–κ³  있고, κ·Έλž˜μ„œ 이와 같은 ν˜„μƒμ—
07:20
to give a name to this, and that's what I refer to
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이름을 λΆ™μ—¬μ£ΌλŠ” 것이 μ€‘μš”ν•˜λ‹€κ³  μƒκ°ν•©λ‹ˆλ‹€.
07:23
as globaloney, the difference between the dark blue bars
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μ „ 그것을 'Globaloney(globalization+baloney λ©μ²­ν•œ 세계화)' 라고 λΆ€λ¦…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
07:28
and the light gray bars.
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짙은 청색 λ§‰λŒ€μ™€ μ˜…μ€ νšŒμƒ‰ λ§‰λŒ€μ˜ 차이가 λ°”λ‘œ 그것이죠.
07:31
Especially because, I suspect, some of you may still be
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μ—¬κΈ° 계신 λͺ‡λͺ‡ 뢄듀은 μ•„λ§ˆλ„ μœ„μ™€ 같은 μ£Όμž₯에 λŒ€ν•΄
07:35
a little bit skeptical of the claims, I think it's important
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λ―Έμ‹¬μ©μ–΄ν•˜μ‹€ κ²ƒμž…λ‹ˆλ‹€. κ·Έλž˜μ„œ μ™œ μš°λ¦¬κ°€ 'λ©μ²­ν•œ 세계화' λ₯Ό
07:39
to just spend a little bit of time thinking about
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κ³§μ΄κ³§λŒ€λ‘œ λ―ΏκΈ° μ‰¬μš΄μ§€μ— λŒ€ν•΄ 쑰금만 더 생각을 ν•΄λ³΄λŠ” μ‹œκ°„μ„
07:42
why we might be prone to globaloney.
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κ°–λŠ” 것이 μ€‘μš”ν•˜λ‹€κ³  μƒκ°ν•©λ‹ˆλ‹€.
07:46
A couple of different reasons come to mind.
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μš°μ„  λͺ‡κ°€μ§€ λ‹€λ₯Έ μ΄μœ λ“€μ΄ λ– μ˜€λ₯΄λŠ”λ°μš”,
07:49
First of all, there's a real dearth of data in the debate.
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첫번째둜, 세계화에 κ΄€ν•œ λ…ΌμŸμ—μ„œ μ‹€μ œ μžλ£Œκ°€ λΆ€μ‘±ν•œ κ²½μš°μž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
07:53
Let me give you an example. When I first published
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ν•œ 가지 예λ₯Ό 듀어보죠.
07:56
some of these data a few years ago
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λͺ‡ λ…„ μ „ Foreign Policy λž€ μž‘μ§€μ— 이와 같은 자료λ₯Ό
07:59
in a magazine called Foreign Policy,
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κΈ°κ³ ν–ˆμ„ λ•Œμ˜ μΌμž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
08:01
one of the people who wrote in, not entirely in agreement,
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제 글에 μ „μ μœΌλ‘œ λ™μ˜ν•˜μ§€ μ•Šμ•˜λ˜ μ‚¬λžŒλ“€ 쀑 ν•œλͺ…이 λ°”λ‘œ
08:05
was Tom Friedman. And since my article was titled
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ν†°ν”„λ¦¬λ“œλ§Œμ΄μ—ˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€. 제 기고문의 제λͺ©μ΄ 'μ™œ μ„Έκ³„λŠ” ν‰ν‰ν•˜μ§€ μ•Šμ€κ°€' μ˜€κΈ° λ•Œλ¬Έμ—
08:09
"Why the World Isn't Flat," that wasn't too surprising. (Laughter)
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그닀지 λ†€λž„λ§Œν•œ 일은 μ•„λ‹ˆμ—ˆμ£  (μ›ƒμŒ)
08:14
What was very surprising to me was Tom's critique,
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무엇보닀 λ†€λžλ˜ 점은 제 μžλ£ŒλŠ” 맀우 νŽΈν˜‘ν•˜λ‹€κ³ 
08:18
which was, "Ghemawat's data are narrow."
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μ§€μ ν•œ ν†°μ˜ λΉ„νŒμ΄μ—ˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
08:23
And this caused me to scratch my head, because
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그의 λΉ„νŒμ€ μ €λ‘œ ν•˜μ—¬κΈˆ 머리λ₯Ό μ₯μ–΄λœ―게 λ§Œλ“€μ—ˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
08:26
as I went back through his several-hundred-page book,
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μ™œλƒν•˜λ©΄ 그의 700μ—¬ νŽ˜μ΄μ§€μ— 이λ₯΄λŠ” 책을 λ‹€μ‹œ λ’€μ μ˜€μ§€λ§Œ
08:29
I couldn't find a single figure, chart, table,
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단 ν•˜λ‚˜μ˜ 수치, λ„ν‘œ, λͺ©λ‘, 참고자료 그리고
08:34
reference or footnote.
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각주 같은 것을 찾을 수 μ—†μ—ˆκΈ° λ•Œλ¬Έμž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
08:37
So my point is, I haven't presented a lot of data here
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μ—¬κΈ°μ„œ μ œκ°€ μ˜³λ‹€λŠ” 것을 증λͺ…ν•˜κΈ° μœ„ν•΄
08:41
to convince you that I'm right, but I would urge you
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μ–΄λ§ˆμ–΄λ§ˆν•œ 자료λ₯Ό λ³΄μ—¬λ“œλ¦¬μ§€λŠ” μ•Šκ² μŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€. λŒ€μ‹  ν•œ 가지 λΆ€νƒλ“œλ¦¬κ³  μ‹ΆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
08:45
to go away and look for your own data
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제 λ°œν‘œκ°€ λλ‚œ 뒀에 집에 κ°€μ…”μ„œ
08:48
to try and actually assess whether some of these
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맀일 같이 μŸμ•„μ§€λŠ” 세계화에 λŒ€ν•œ 기쑴의 인식이
08:51
hand-me-down insights that we've been bombarded with
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κ³Όμ—° μ˜³μ€μ§€μ— λŒ€ν•΄ μ—¬λŸ¬λΆ„λ“€μ΄ 직접
08:55
actually are correct.
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자료λ₯Ό μ°Ύμ•„λ³΄μ‹œκΈ° λ°”λžλ‹ˆλ‹€.
08:57
So dearth of data in the debate is one reason.
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세계화 λ…ΌμŸμ—μ„œ μœ„μ™€ 같은 자료의 뢀쑱이 첫번째 이유이고,
09:01
A second reason has to do with peer pressure.
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λ‘λ²ˆμ§Έ μ΄μœ λŠ” μΌμ’…μ˜ '동λ₯˜ 집단 μ••λ ₯' λ•Œλ¬Έμž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
09:05
I remember, I decided to write my
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μ œκ°€ κΈ°μ–΅ν•˜κΈ°λ‘œ,
09:08
"Why the World Isn't Flat" article, because
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'μ™œ μ„Έκ³„λŠ” ν‰ν‰ν•˜μ§€ μ•Šμ€κ°€'λ₯Ό μ“°κΈ°λ‘œ κ²°μ‹¬ν•œ μ΄μœ λŠ”
09:11
I was being interviewed on TV in Mumbai,
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λ­„λ°”μ΄μ—μ„œ ν•œ TV 인터뷰 λ•Œλ¬ΈμΈλ°μš”,
09:14
and the interviewer's first question to me was,
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κ·Έ λ‹Ήμ‹œ μΈν„°λ·°μ–΄μ˜ 첫번째 μ§ˆλ¬Έμ€,
09:17
"Professor Ghemawat, why do you still believe
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'Ghemawat κ΅μˆ˜λ‹˜, μ™œ κ΅μˆ˜λ‹˜κ»˜μ„œλŠ” 아직도 μ§€κ΅¬λŠ” λ‘₯κΈ€λ‹€κ³  λ―ΏμœΌμ„Έμš”?' μ˜€κ³ ,
09:21
that the world is round?" And I started laughing,
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μ €λŠ” λ°”λ‘œ μ›ƒμŒμ„ ν„°λœ¨λ ΈμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
09:26
because I hadn't come across that formulation before. (Laughter)
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μ™œλƒν•˜λ©΄ 그런 직접적인 ν‘œν˜„μ„ λ“€μ–΄λ³Έ 적이 μ—†μ—ˆκΈ° λ•Œλ¬Έμž…λ‹ˆλ‹€. (μ›ƒμŒ)
09:29
And as I was laughing, I was thinking,
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어쨋든 μ›ƒμœΌλ©΄μ„œ μƒκ°ν–ˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
09:32
I really need a more coherent response, especially
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여기에 κ΄€ν•΄ 보닀 λ…Όλ¦¬μ •μ—°ν•œ 닡변이 ν•„μš”ν•˜κ² κ΅¬λ‚˜,
09:35
on national TV. I'd better write something about this. (Laughter)
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특히 ꡭ영 λ°©μ†‘μ—μ„œ 인터뷰할 λ•ŒλŠ” 말이죠. 여기에 κ΄€ν•΄ λ­”κ°€ 써야겠닀고 μƒκ°ν–ˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€. (μ›ƒμŒ)
09:39
But what I can't quite capture for you
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κ·ΈλŸ¬λ‚˜ μ œκ°€ 미처 λ§ν•˜μ§€ λͺ»ν–ˆλ˜ 것은
09:42
was the pity and disbelief
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인터뷰어가 μ§ˆλ¬Έμ„ ν•  λ•Œ 그의 νƒœλ„μ—μ„œ λ“œλŸ¬λ‚˜κ³  μžˆλŠ”
09:44
with which the interviewer asked her question.
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저에 λŒ€ν•œ μ—°λ―Όκ³Ό λΆˆμ‹ μ΄μ—ˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
09:48
The perspective was, here is this poor professor.
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그것은 마치
09:52
He's clearly been in a cave for the last 20,000 years.
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"μ—¬κΈ° 이 λΆˆμŒν•œ ꡐ수λ₯Ό 봐, 2λ§Œλ…„λ™μ•ˆ 동꡴속에 κ°‡ν˜€μžˆλ˜ 것이 λΆ„λͺ…ν•΄.
09:57
He really has no idea
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μ§€κΈˆ 이 μ„Έκ³„μ—μ„œ 무슨 일이 μΌμ–΄λ‚˜κ³  μžˆλŠ”μ§€
09:59
as to what's actually going on in the world.
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μ „ν˜€ λͺ¨λ₯΄κ³  μžˆμœΌλ‹ˆ 말야" 같은 κ²ƒμ΄μ—ˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
10:02
So try this out with your friends and acquaintances,
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μ—¬λŸ¬λΆ„μ˜ μΉœκ΅¬λ‚˜ μ§€μΈλ“€μ—κ²Œ ν•œλ²ˆ ν…ŒμŠ€νŠΈν•΄λ³΄μ‹œλ©΄,
10:06
if you like. You'll find that it's very cool
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ν•˜λ‚˜μ˜ 세계에 λŒ€ν•΄ μ΄μ•ΌκΈ°ν•˜λŠ” 것이 μ–Όλ§ˆλ‚˜
10:09
to talk about the world being one, etc.
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멋진 것인지 μ•Œκ²Œλ  κ²ƒμž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
10:13
If you raise questions about that formulation,
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λ§Œμ•½ 이와 같은 ν‘œν˜„μ— μ˜λ¬Έμ„ μ œκΈ°ν•œλ‹€λ©΄,
10:16
you really are considered a bit of an antique.
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살짝 μ‹œλŒ€μ— 뒀떨어진 μ‚¬λžŒμ²˜λŸΌ 취급을 λ°›κΈ° μ‰½μŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
10:20
And then the final reason, which I mention,
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그리고 λ§ˆμ§€λ§‰ μ΄μœ κ°€ μžˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
10:23
especially to a TED audience, with some trepidation,
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특히 μ•½κ°„μ˜ 두렀움과 ν•¨κ²Œ TED μ²­μ€‘λ“€μ—κ²Œ λ§ν•˜κ³ μž ν•˜λŠ” 것은
10:27
has to do with what I call "techno-trances."
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세계화 λ…ΌμŸμ€ μ œκ°€ 'ν…Œν¬λ…Έ 트랜슀'라고 λΆ€λ₯΄λŠ” 것과 연관이 μžˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
10:30
If you listen to techno music for long periods of time,
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ν…Œν¬λ…Έ μŒμ•…μ„ μž₯μ‹œκ°„μ— 걸쳐 λ“€μœΌλ©΄,
10:34
it does things to your brainwave activity. (Laughter)
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그것은 λ‡ŒνŒŒμ— 영ν–₯을 미치게 λ©λ‹ˆλ‹€. (μ›ƒμŒ)
10:37
Something similar seems to happen
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세계화 λ…ΌμŸμ—μ„œλ„ 이와 λΉ„μŠ·ν•œ 것이 μΌμ–΄λ‚˜κ³  μžˆλŠ”κ²ƒμ²˜λŸΌ λ³΄μž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
10:41
with exaggerated conceptions of how technology
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μ–΄λ–»κ²Œ 기술이 맀우 짧은 κΈ°κ°„ 내에
10:46
is going to overpower in the very immediate run
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λͺ¨λ“  λ¬Έν™”, μ •μΉ˜, 지리적 벽을 ν—ˆλ¬Ό 것인지에 λŒ€ν•œ
10:50
all cultural barriers, all political barriers,
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κ³Όμž₯된 신념 λ§μž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
10:53
all geographic barriers, because at this point
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μ—¬κΈ°μ—μ„œ 제게 μ§ˆλ¬Έμ„ ν•˜λŠ” 것이 ν—ˆμš©λ˜μ§€
10:57
I know you aren't allowed to ask me questions,
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μ•ŠλŠ”λ‹€λŠ” 건 잘 μ•Œκ³  μžˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
11:00
but when I get to this point in my lecture with my students,
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ν•˜μ§€λ§Œ μˆ˜μ—… μ‹œκ°„μ— 이와 같은 말을 ν–ˆμ„ λ•Œ
11:03
hands go up, and people ask me,
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학생듀이 손을 λ“€κ³  λ¬Όμ–΄λ³΄λ”κ΅°μš”,
11:05
"Yeah, but what about Facebook?"
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'ν•˜μ§€λ§Œ νŽ˜μ΄μŠ€λΆμ€ μ–΄λ–»κ΅¬μš”, μ„ μƒλ‹˜?'
11:09
And I got this question often enough that I thought
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이와 같은 μ§ˆλ¬Έμ€ νŽ˜μ΄μŠ€λΆμ— λŒ€ν•΄ 연ꡬλ₯Ό ν•œλ²ˆ ν•΄λ΄μ•Όκ² λ‹€λŠ”
11:11
I'd better do some research on Facebook.
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생각이 λ“€ μ •λ„λ‘œ 많이 λ‚˜μ˜€λŠ”λ°μš”,
11:14
Because, in some sense, it's the ideal kind of technology
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μ™œλƒν•˜λ©΄, μ–΄λ–€ μ˜λ―Έμ—μ„œ νŽ˜μ΄μŠ€λΆμ€ 생각을 ν•΄λ³Όλ§Œν•œ
11:18
to think about. Theoretically, it makes it
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κ½€ 이상적인 μ’…λ₯˜μ˜ 기술이기 λ•Œλ¬Έμž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
11:22
as easy to form friendships halfway around the world
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이둠적으둜, νŽ˜μ΄μŠ€λΆμ€ λ°”λ‘œ μ˜†μ§‘μ— μ‚¬λŠ” μΉœκ΅¬κ°€ μ•„λ‹Œ 전세계에 걸쳐
11:25
as opposed to right next door.
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친ꡬλ₯Ό μ‰½κ²Œ μ‚¬κ·ˆ 수 있게 λ§Œλ“€μ–΄μ€λ‹ˆλ‹€.
11:28
What percentage of people's friends on Facebook
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κ·Έλ ‡λ‹€λ©΄ μš°λ¦¬κ°€ 뢄석할 μ‚¬λžŒλ“€μ΄ 어디에 μžˆλŠ”μ§€κ°€ μ•„λ‹Œ,
11:34
are actually located in countries other than where
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μ‹€μ œλ‘œ 페이슀뢁 μ΄μš©μžλ“€μ˜ μΉœκ΅¬λ“€ 쀑
11:37
people we're analyzing are based?
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λͺ‡ νΌμ„ΌνŠΈλ‚˜ λ‹€λ₯Έ λ‚˜λΌ μ‚¬λžŒλ“€μΌκΉŒμš”?
11:40
The answer is probably somewhere between
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닡은 μ•„λ§ˆλ„ 10μ—μ„œ 15νΌμ„ΌνŠΈ
11:44
10 to 15 percent.
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사이 μ–΄λ”˜κ°€μ―€ λ©λ‹ˆλ‹€.
11:47
Non-negligible, so we don't live in an entirely local
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λ¬΄μ‹œν•  μ •λ„λŠ” μ•„λ‹ˆκ΅¬μš”, κ·Έλž˜μ„œ μš°λ¦¬λŠ” μ™„λ²½ν•˜κ²Œ μ§€μ—­μ μ΄κ±°λ‚˜
11:50
or national world, but very, very far from the 95 percent level
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세계적인 세상에 μ‚΄κ³  μžˆμ§€ μ•ŠμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€. μ•„λ§ˆλ„ μ‚¬λžŒλ“€μ΄ μ˜ˆμƒν•˜λŠ”
11:55
that you would expect, and the reason's very simple.
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95νΌμ„ΌνŠΈμ™€λŠ” 맀우 동떨어진 수치죠. κ·Έ μ΄μœ λŠ” λ‹¨μˆœν•©λ‹ˆλ‹€.
11:59
We don't, or I hope we don't, form friendships at random
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μš°λ¦¬λŠ” νŽ˜μ΄μŠ€λΆμ—μ„œ λ¬΄μž‘μœ„λ‘œ 친ꡬλ₯Ό 사귀고 μ‹Άμ–΄ν•˜μ§€ μ•ŠκΈ° λ•Œλ¬Έμž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
12:03
on Facebook. The technology is overlaid
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νŽ˜μ΄μŠ€λΆμ€ κ·Έμ € μš°λ¦¬κ°€ 이미 λ§Ίκ³  μžˆλŠ” 기쑴의 관계듀 μœ„μ—
12:08
on a pre-existing matrix of relationships that we have,
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λ§μ”Œμ›Œμ ΈμžˆλŠ” 것일 λΏμž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
12:12
and those relationships are what the technology
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그리고 κ·ΈλŸ¬ν•œ 관계듀은 페이슀뢁이 μ™„λ²½νžˆ λŒ€μ²΄ν•  μˆ˜κ°€ μ—†λŠ” κ²ƒμž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
12:16
doesn't quite displace. Those relationships are why
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κ·ΈλŸ¬ν•œ 관계듀은 λ˜ν•œ μ™œ μš°λ¦¬κ°€
12:19
we get far fewer than 95 percent of our friends
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μ—¬λŸ¬ λ‚˜λΌμ— μ‚΄κ³  μžˆλŠ” μΉœκ΅¬λ“€λ³΄λ‹€
12:23
being located in countries other than where we are.
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μš°λ¦¬κ°€ μ‚΄κ³  μžˆλŠ” κ³³μ—μ„œ 사귄 μΉœκ΅¬λ“€μ΄ 더 λ§Žμ€μ§€ μ„€λͺ…ν•΄μ€λ‹ˆλ‹€.
12:27
So does all this matter? Or is globaloney
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κ·Έλž˜μ„œ 이런 것듀이 μ€‘μš”ν•˜λƒκ΅¬μš”? 'λ©μ²­ν•œ 세계화'λŠ”
12:32
just a harmless way of getting people to pay more attention
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단지 μ‚¬λžŒλ“€λ‘œ ν•˜μ—¬κΈˆ 세계화 κ΄€λ ¨ μ΄μŠˆλ“€μ— 보닀 μ£Όλͺ©μ„ ν•˜κ²Œ
12:37
to globalization-related issues?
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λ§Œλ“€κ³ μž ν•˜λŠ”, ν•˜μ§€λ§Œ ν•΄λ‘­μ§€λŠ” μ•Šμ€ 방법이 μ•„λ‹ˆλƒκ΅¬μš”?
12:40
I want to suggest that actually,
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μ €λŠ” 'λ©μ²­ν•œ 세계화'κ°€ μ—¬λŸ¬λΆ„μ˜ 건강에
12:42
globaloney can be very harmful to your health.
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맀우 ν•΄λ‘œμšΈ 수 μžˆλ‹€λŠ” 점만 μ§€μ ν•˜κ³  μ‹ΆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
12:47
First of all, recognizing that the glass
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무엇보닀, μ„Έκ³„ν™”λ‘œμ˜ 톡합이
12:50
is only 10 to 20 percent full is critical to seeing
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뢀가적인 μ†Œλ“μ— μœ μš©ν•  μˆ˜λ„ μžˆμŒμ€
12:55
that there might be potential for additional gains
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단지 10μ—μ„œ 20νΌμ„ΌνŠΈλ§Œμ΄ 그렇닀라고
12:58
from additional integration,
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μΈμ‹ν•˜λŠ” κ²ƒμž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
13:00
whereas if we thought we were already there,
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λ°˜λ©΄μ— μš°λ¦¬κ°€ 이미 이상적인 세계화에 도달해 μžˆλ‹€λ©΄
13:03
there would be no particular point to pushing harder.
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이런 세계화에 λŒ€ν•œ μ΄μ•ΌκΈ°λŠ” κ°•ν•˜κ²Œ λ°€μ–΄λΆ€μΉ  ν•„μš”λ„ μ—†λŠ” 것이겠죠
13:06
It's a little bit like, we wouldn't be having a conference
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그것은 마치 이 μ»¨νΌλŸ°μŠ€μ—μ„œ μ΄μ•ΌκΈ°λ˜κ³  μžˆλŠ” λͺ¨λ“  μ’…λ₯˜μ˜
13:09
on radical openness if we already thought we were totally open
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영ν–₯λ ₯에 λŒ€ν•΄ μš°λ¦¬κ°€ μ™„μ „ν•˜κ²Œ μ—΄λ¦° μžμ„Έλ‘œ μž„ν•œλ‹€κ³ 
13:14
to all the kinds of influences that are being talked about
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μ—¬κΈ΄λ‹€λ©΄, μš°λ¦¬κ°€ 이와 같은 급진적인 κ°œλ°©μ„±μ— κ΄€ν•œ
13:17
at this conference.
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컨퍼런슀λ₯Ό ν•˜κ³ μžˆμ§€ μ•Šμ„ 것이라 λ§ν•˜λŠ” 것과 κ°™μŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
13:18
So being accurate about how limited globalization levels are
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κ·ΈλŸ¬λ―€λ‘œ μ–Όλ§ˆλ‚˜ μ„Έκ³„ν™”μ˜ μˆ˜μ€€μ΄ μ œν•œλ˜μ–΄ μžˆλŠ”μ§€
13:23
is critical to even being able to notice
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μ •ν™•ν•˜κ²Œ μ§€μ ν•˜λŠ” 것은 세계화에 무언가 더, 무언가
13:26
that there might be room for something more,
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세계적인 λ²ˆμ˜μ„ μœ„ν•΄ κΈ°μ—¬ν•  수 μžˆλŠ” 것 같은 여지λ₯Ό
13:30
something that would contribute further to global welfare.
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μ•Œμ•„μ°¨λ¦¬κ²Œ ν•˜λŠ”λ° μ•„μ£Ό 결정적인 κ²ƒμž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
13:34
Which brings me to my second point.
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그것은 제 λ‘λ²ˆμ§Έ 지적과 λ§žλ‹Ώμ•„ μžˆλŠ” κ²ƒμΈλ°μš”,
13:37
Avoiding overstatement is also very helpful
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세계화에 λŒ€ν•œ κ³Όμž₯된 언급을 μ‚Όκ°€λŠ” 편이 맀우 μœ μš©ν•©λ‹ˆλ‹€.
13:41
because it reduces and in some cases even reverses
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μ™œλƒν•˜λ©΄ 그것은 λͺ‡λͺ‡μ˜ κ²½μš°μ— 세계화에 λŒ€ν•΄ μ‚¬λžŒλ“€μ΄
13:46
some of the fears that people have about globalization.
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κ°–κ³  μžˆλŠ” 곡포심을 쀄여쀄 수 있기 λ•Œλ¬Έμž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
13:51
So I actually spend most of my "World 3.0" book
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κ·Έλž˜μ„œ 제 μ±… "World 3.0"의 λŒ€λΆ€λΆ„μ€
13:54
working through a litany of market failures and fears
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세계화가 점점 악화될 것이라고 μš°λ €ν•˜λŠ” μ‚¬λžŒλ“€μ˜
13:58
that people have that they worry globalization is going to exacerbate.
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곡포와 μ‹œμž₯ μ‹€νŒ¨μ— κ΄€ν•œ μ§€λ£¨ν•œ μ„€λͺ…λ“€λ‘œ μ΄λ£¨μ–΄μ ΈμžˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
14:04
I'm obviously not going to be able to do that for you today,
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였늘 이 μžλ¦¬μ—μ„œ μ—¬λŸ¬λΆ„κ»˜ 그런 μ„€λͺ…을 λ“œλ¦¬μ§„ μ•Šμ„ κ²ƒμž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
14:07
so let me just present to you two headlines
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단지 μ œκ°€ μƒκ°ν•˜λŠ” 것 쀑 두 가지 정도λ₯Ό
14:11
as an illustration of what I have in mind.
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λ³΄μ—¬λ“œλ¦¬κ² μŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
14:14
Think of France and the current debate about immigration.
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ν”„λž‘μŠ€μ™€ 이민 정책을 λ‘˜λŸ¬μ‹Ό 토둠에 λŒ€ν•΄ μƒκ°ν•΄λ³΄μ„Έμš”.
14:18
When you ask people in France what percentage
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λ§Œμ•½ μ—¬λŸ¬λΆ„μ΄ ν”„λž‘μŠ€ 전체 인ꡬ의 λͺ‡ νΌμ„ΌνŠΈκ°€
14:21
of the French population is immigrants,
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μ΄λ―Όμžλƒκ³  ν”„λž‘μŠ€μΈμ—κ²Œ λ¬»λŠ”λ‹€λ©΄,
14:24
the answer is about 24 percent. That's their guess.
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μ•„λ§ˆ 24νΌμ„ΌνŠΈμ―€ λœλ‹€κ³  λ‹΅ν•  κ²ƒμž…λ‹ˆλ‹€. 그듀은 그쯀으둜 μΆ”μΈ‘ν•©λ‹ˆλ‹€.
14:28
Maybe realizing that the number is just eight percent
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μ•„λ§ˆλ„ 전체 ν”„λž‘μŠ€ 인ꡬ λŒ€λΉ„ 이민자 λΉ„μœ¨μ€ κ³ μž‘ 8νΌμ„ΌνŠΈλΌλŠ” 것을 μ•ˆλ‹€λ©΄,
14:33
might help cool some of the superheated rhetoric
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μš°λ¦¬κ°€ μ’…μ’… λ³΄λŠ”, 이민 정책을 λ‘˜λŸ¬μ‹Ό κ³Όμž₯된 μˆ˜μ‚¬λ“€λ‘œλΆ€ν„°
14:37
that we see around the immigration issue.
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쒀더 거리λ₯Ό 두고 생각할 수 있게 해쀄 κ²ƒμž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
14:40
Or to take an even more striking example,
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μ•„λ‹ˆλ©΄, 쒀더 단적인 예λ₯Ό λ“€μ–΄λ³΄κ² μŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
14:45
when the Chicago Council on Foreign Relations
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μ‹œμΉ΄κ³  ꡭ제 관계 μœ„μ›νšŒμ—μ„œ 미ꡭ인듀을 λŒ€μƒμœΌλ‘œ
14:47
did a survey of Americans, asking them to guess
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μ—°λ°© μ •λΆ€ μ˜ˆμ‚° 쀑 κ³Όμ—° λͺ‡ νΌμ„ΌνŠΈλ‚˜ ν•΄μ™Έ 원쑰 λΉ„μš©μœΌλ‘œ
14:50
what percentage of the federal budget went to foreign aid,
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μ“°μ΄λŠ”μ§€ μ„€λ¬Έμ‘°μ‚¬ν•œ κ²°κ³Ό, μ‚¬λžŒλ“€μ€ 30νΌμ„ΌνŠΈμ―€ λœλ‹€κ³  λ‹΅ν–ˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
14:54
the guess was 30 percent, which is
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사싀은 λ―Έκ΅­ μ •λΆ€μ˜ μ—°λ°© μ§€μ›κΈˆμ„
14:58
slightly in excess of the actual level β€” ("actually about ... 1%") (Laughter) β€”
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(μ‹€μ œλ‘œλŠ” 1νΌμ„ΌνŠΈ 정도) (μ›ƒμŒ)
15:03
of U.S. governmental commitments to federal aid.
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살짝 μ΄ˆκ³Όν•œ 수치 정도 λ©λ‹ˆλ‹€.
15:07
The reassuring thing about this particular survey was,
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이런 섀문쑰사에 λŒ€ν•΄ μ•ˆμ‹¬μ΄ λ˜λŠ” 것은,
15:10
when it was pointed out to people how far
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μ„€λ¬Έμ‘°μ‚¬μ—μ„œ μ‚¬λžŒλ“€μ—κ²Œ κ·Έλ“€μ˜ μ˜ˆμƒμ΄ μ‹€μ œμ™€
15:13
their estimates were from the actual data,
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μ–Όλ§ˆλ‚˜ λ‹€λ₯Έμ§€ 보여쀄 λ•Œ,
15:16
some of them β€” not all of them β€” seemed to become
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λͺ¨λ“  μ΄λŠ” μ•„λ‹ˆκ³ , 그쀑 λͺ‡λͺ‡μ€ ν•΄μ™Έ 원쑰 κΈˆμ•‘μ„
15:19
more willing to consider increases in foreign aid.
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λŠ˜λ¦¬λŠ” 것을 기꺼이 κ³ λ €ν•˜λŠ” κ²ƒμ²˜λŸΌ λ³΄μΈλ‹€λŠ” μ‚¬μ‹€μž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
15:23
So foreign aid is actually a great way
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κ·ΈλŸ¬λ―€λ‘œ ν•΄μ™Έ μ›μ‘°λŠ”, 이λ₯Όν…Œλ©΄ 이런 μ’…λ₯˜μ˜
15:26
of sort of wrapping up here, because
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쒋은 포μž₯지가 λ˜λŠ” μ…ˆμž…λ‹ˆλ‹€. μ™œλƒν•˜λ©΄,
15:29
if you think about it, what I've been talking about today
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그것에 λŒ€ν•΄ μƒκ°ν•œλ‹€λ©΄, 였늘 μ œκ°€ 이제껏 μ΄μ•ΌκΈ°ν•œ 것은
15:33
is this notion -- very uncontroversial amongst economists --
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이런 관념이기 λ•Œλ¬Έμž…λ‹ˆλ‹€. λ°”λ‘œ κ²½μ œν•™μžλ“€ μ‚¬μ΄μ—μ„œλ„
15:37
that most things are very home-biased.
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λ…Όλž€μ˜ 여지가 제일 적은, λŒ€λΆ€λΆ„μ˜ 것듀은 맀우 'κ΅­λ‚΄ 쀑심적'μž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
15:40
"Foreign aid is the most aid to poor people,"
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"ν•΄μ™Έ μ›μ‘°λŠ” κ°€λ‚œν•œμ΄λ“€μ„ μœ„ν•œ κ°€μž₯ 큰 규λͺ¨μ˜ 원쑰야"
15:43
is about the most home-biased thing you can find.
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같은 것이 μ‰½κ²Œ 찾을 수 μžˆλŠ” κ·Έ μ˜ˆμž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
15:47
If you look at the OECD countries and how much
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λ§Œμ•½ OECD ꡭ가듀이 μ–Όλ§ˆλ‚˜ λ§Žμ€ κΈˆμ•‘μ„
15:50
they spend per domestic poor person,
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μžκ΅­λ‚΄ λΉˆλ―ΌμΈ΅μ—κ²Œ μ“°κ³  있고,
15:53
and compare it with how much they spend
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λ˜ν•œ ν•΄μ™Έ 빈ꡭ의 λΉˆλ―ΌμΈ΅μ—κ²ŒλŠ” μ–Όλ§ˆλ‚˜ μ›μ‘°ν•˜κ³  μžˆλŠ”μ§€
15:55
per poor person in poor countries,
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비ꡐ해본닀면, κ·Έ λΉ„μœ¨μ€
15:59
the ratio β€” Branko Milanovic at the World Bank did the calculations β€”
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μ„Έκ³„μ€ν–‰μ˜ Branko Milanovic의 계산에 λ”°λ₯΄λ©΄,
16:03
turns out to be about 30,000 to one.
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30,000 : 1 정도쯀 λ©λ‹ˆλ‹€.
16:08
Now of course, some of us, if we truly are cosmopolitan,
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자, μš°λ¦¬κ°€ μ§„μ •ν•œ 세계인이라면,
16:14
would like to see that ratio being brought down
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μš°λ¦¬λ“€ 쀑 λͺ‡λͺ‡μ€ λ¬Όλ‘  κ·ΈλŸ¬ν•œ λΉ„μœ¨μ΄
16:18
to one-is-to-one.
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1:1 μ •λ„λ‘œ λ‚΄λ €κ°€μ•Όν•œλ‹€κ³  생각할 κ²ƒμž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
16:20
I'd like to make the suggestion that we don't need to aim
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ν•˜μ§€λ§Œ μ €λŠ” μš°λ¦¬κ°€ μžˆλŠ” κ³³μœΌλ‘œλΆ€ν„° μ‹€μ§ˆμ μΈ λ°œμ „μ„ 이루기 μœ„ν•΄
16:23
for that to make substantial progress from where we are.
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κ·Έ μ •λ„λ‘œ 원쑰λ₯Ό ν•  ν•„μš”λŠ” μ—†λ‹€κ³  μ œμ•ˆν•˜κ³  μ‹ΆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
16:27
If we simply brought that ratio down to 15,000 to one,
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μš°λ¦¬κ°€ 기쑴의 μžκ΅­λ‚΄ 빈민측 지원 λŒ€λΉ„ ν•΄μ™Έ 원쑰 λΉ„μœ¨μ„
16:32
we would be meeting those aid targets that were agreed
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15,000 λŒ€ 1 μ •λ„λ‘œλ§Œ λŒμ–΄λ‚΄λ¦°λ‹€λ©΄, μš°λ¦¬λŠ” 20λ…„ 전에
16:36
at the Rio Summit 20 years ago that the summit
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리였 μ •μƒνšŒμ˜, μ§€λ‚œμ£Όμ— μ–΄λ–€ 진전도 없이 λλ‚˜λ²„λ¦° κ·Έ νšŒμ˜μ—μ„œ
16:39
that ended last week made no further progress on.
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λͺ¨λ‘ λ™μ˜ν•œ ν•΄μ™Έ 원쑰 λΉ„μœ¨μ„ μΆ©μ‘±μ‹œν‚¬ 수 μžˆμ„ κ²ƒμž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
16:43
So in summary, while radical openness is great,
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μš”μ•½ν•˜μžλ©΄, κ·ΈλŸ¬ν•œ 급진적인 κ°œλ°©μ„±μ€ ν›Œλ₯­ν•©λ‹ˆλ‹€.
16:47
given how closed we are,
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μ–Όλ§ˆλ‚˜ μš°λ¦¬κ°€ κ°€κΉκ²Œ λΆ™μ–΄μžˆλŠ”μ§€λ₯Ό κ³ λ €ν•œλ‹€λ©΄,
16:49
even incremental openness could make things
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그보닀 λ”ν•œ 급진적인 κ°œλ°©μ„±μ€ μš°λ¦¬κ°€ μ‚΄κ³  μžˆλŠ” μ‹œλŒ€λ₯Ό
16:52
dramatically better. Thank you very much. (Applause)
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쒀더 극적으둜 λ‚˜μ€ 곳으둜 λ§Œλ“€μ–΄μ€„ κ²ƒμž…λ‹ˆλ‹€. κ°μ‚¬ν•©λ‹ˆλ‹€. (λ°•μˆ˜)
16:56
(Applause)
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(λ°•μˆ˜)
이 μ›Ήμ‚¬μ΄νŠΈ 정보

이 μ‚¬μ΄νŠΈλŠ” μ˜μ–΄ ν•™μŠ΅μ— μœ μš©ν•œ YouTube λ™μ˜μƒμ„ μ†Œκ°œν•©λ‹ˆλ‹€. μ „ 세계 졜고의 μ„ μƒλ‹˜λ“€μ΄ κ°€λ₯΄μΉ˜λŠ” μ˜μ–΄ μˆ˜μ—…μ„ 보게 될 κ²ƒμž…λ‹ˆλ‹€. 각 λ™μ˜μƒ νŽ˜μ΄μ§€μ— ν‘œμ‹œλ˜λŠ” μ˜μ–΄ μžλ§‰μ„ 더블 ν΄λ¦­ν•˜λ©΄ κ·Έκ³³μ—μ„œ λ™μ˜μƒμ΄ μž¬μƒλ©λ‹ˆλ‹€. λΉ„λ””μ˜€ μž¬μƒμ— 맞좰 μžλ§‰μ΄ μŠ€ν¬λ‘€λ©λ‹ˆλ‹€. μ˜κ²¬μ΄λ‚˜ μš”μ²­μ΄ μžˆλŠ” 경우 이 문의 양식을 μ‚¬μš©ν•˜μ—¬ λ¬Έμ˜ν•˜μ‹­μ‹œμ˜€.

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