Iqbal Quadir: The power of the mobile phone to end poverty

イクバル・カディーア 貧困と戦う携帯を語る

翻訳: Hiroyuki Mori 校正: Aiko McLean

I'll just take you to Bangladesh for a minute.

バングラデシュをしばしご覧下さい

Before I tell that story, we should ask ourselves the question:

本題に入る前に 一緒に考えてください

Why does poverty exist?

なぜ貧困があるのか？

I mean, there is plenty of knowledge and scientific breakthroughs.

我々は多くの知識を持ち 科学は発展し

We all live in the same planet,

ひとつの同じ星に暮らしているのに

but there's still a great deal of poverty in the world.

今も世界中に貧困がはびこっています

And I think -- so I want to throw a perspective that I have,

まず 私の視点を聞いて下さい

so that we can assess this project, or any other project, for that matter,

今から話す事業や その他の事業が

to see whether it's contributing or --

貧困撲滅や緩和に貢献しているのか

contributing to poverty or trying to alleviate it.

見極めてみましょう

Rich countries have been sending aid to poor countries for the last 60 years.

過去60年間 豊かな国は貧しい国を援助してきました

And by and large, this has failed.

でも全体的に見て失敗でした

And you can see this book,

この本を見て下さい

written by someone who worked in the World Bank for 20 years,

世界銀行に20年勤めた人が書いたもので

and he finds economic growth in this country to be elusive.

“この国の経済成長の理由は不明だが

By and large, it did not work.

援助の結果ではない”と示しています

So the question is, why is that?

それはなぜでしょうか

In my mind, there is something to learn from the history of Europe.

欧州の歴史が参考になると私は考えています

I mean, even here, yesterday I was walking across the street,

昨日通りを歩いていて見つけたのですが

and they showed three bishops were executed 500 years ago,

5百年前に処刑された3人の主教を

right across the street from here.

通りの向かいで展示しています

So my point is, there's a lot of struggle has gone in Europe,

つまり 欧州で多くの闘争が繰り広げられ

where citizens were empowered by technologies.

市民は技術に支えられ力をつけました

And they demanded authorities from --

市民は権力者が馬の背から降り

to come down from their high horses.

市民と同じ土俵に立つことを求めました

And in the end, there's better bargaining

最後にはよりよい妥協が

between the authorities and citizens,

権力者と市民との間で成立し

and democracies, capitalism -- everything else flourished.

民主主義や資本主義などが花開きました

And so you can see, the real process of --

真の発展に必要なことは

and this is backed up by this 500-page book --

この本にも書かれているように

that the authorities came down and citizens got up.

権力者に代わり市民が力を得ることです

But if you look, if you have that perspective,

この視点から考えると この60年間

then you can see what happened in the last 60 years.

援助が逆方向に注がれていたと分かります

Aid actually did the opposite.

つまり援助によって権力者が力をつけ

It empowered authorities,

結果的に市民をのけ者にした

and, as a result, marginalized citizens.

権力者は経済成長などいりませんでした

The authorities did not have the reason to make economic growth happen

人々に税金を課し

so that they could tax people

国の事業資金を稼ぐ必要がなかったのです

and make more money for to run their business.

海外から資金が得られたからです

Because they were getting it from abroad.

事実 石油収入が豊富で

And in fact, if you see oil-rich countries,

市民の力が弱い国でも同じ事が起こっています

where citizens are not yet empowered, the same thing goes --

ナイジェリアやサウジアラビアのような国です

Nigeria, Saudi Arabia, all sorts of countries.

援助は石油や鉱物の収入と同じです

Because the aid and oil or mineral money acts the same way.

権力者に力を与え 市民は活性化されない

It empowers authorities, without activating the citizens --

市民の労働力や才能が活かされない

their hands, legs, brains, what have you.

そうであるなら 国の発展に最も必要なことは

And if you agree with that, then I think the best way to improve these countries

経済発展とは 人々の 人々による

is to recognize that economic development is of the people,

人々のためのもの と認識することです

by the people, for the people.

人々のつながりが発展をもたらします

And that is the real network effect.

市民がつながり 組織化され より生産的になることで

If citizens can network and make themselves more organized and productive,

市民の声が社会に反映され

so that their voices are heard,

世の中はよくなるのです

so then things would improve.

反して 世界で最も影響力のある機関－

And to contrast that, you can see the most important institution in the world,

世界銀行は 政府の 政府による

the World Bank, is an organization of the government,

政府のための組織です

by the government, for the governments.

まさに正反対です

Just see the contrast.

以上が私の視点です それでは私の物語を始めましょう

And that is the perspective I have, and then I can start my story.

どうすれば市民が力を持てるのでしょう？

Of course, how would you empower citizens?

携帯のような技術が使えます

There could be all sorts of technologies. And one is cell phones.

英エコノミスト誌も最近認めていますが

Recently "The Economist" recognized this,

私は12年前にこのアイデアを思いつきました

but I stumbled upon the idea 12 years ago,

以後この事業に取り組んでいます

and that's what I've been working on.

ニューヨークで投資銀行家を目指していた12年前

So 12 years ago, I was trying to be an investment banker in New York.

多くの同業者とコンピュータネットワークでつながっていました

We had -- quite a few our colleagues were connected by a computer network.

フロッピーディスクを交換する必要もなく より効率的に

And we got more productive because we didn't have to exchange floppy disks;

最新の情報を交換することが出来ました

we could update each other more often.

ある時 ネットワークが故障しました

But one time it broke down.

その時 1971年の出来事を思い出しました

And it reminded me of a day in 1971.

当時私の国は戦争のさなかにあり

There was a war going on in my country.

私たち家族はそれまで暮らしていた都会を離れ

And my family moved out of an urban place, where we used to live,

より安全な地方の田舎に引越していました

to a remote rural area where it was safer.

ある時 弟の薬を取りに行くよう母に頼まれました

And one time my mother asked me to get some medicine for a younger sibling.

午前一杯16キロ歩き 薬屋に辿り着きましたが

And I walked 10 miles or so, all morning, to get there, to the medicine man.

不在で 仕方なく半日歩いて戻りました

And he wasn't there, so I walked all afternoon back.

全く無駄な一日でした

So I had another unproductive day.

ニューヨークの高層ビルの中にいた私は

So while I was sitting in a tall building in New York,

この2つの出来事を比較して

I put those two experiences together side by side,

つながりこそが生産力を高めると気づいたのです

and basically concluded that connectivity is productivity --

近代的なオフィスも昔ながらの農村も同じなのです

whether it's in a modern office or an underdeveloped village.

どういうことかと言うと

So naturally, I -- the implication of that is

電話は貧困に対する武器になるということです

that the telephone is a weapon against poverty.

さて そうだとすると

And if that's the case, then the question is

当時 何台の電話があったでしょうか？

how many telephones did we have at that time?

調べてみると 当時のバングラデシュには

And it turns out, that there was one telephone in Bangladesh

5百人に1台だけでした

for every 500 people.

それも都会のみでした

And all those phones were in the few urban places.

１億人の人々が住む広大な地方には

The vast rural areas, where 100 million people lived,

電話がなかったのです

there were no telephones.

かなりの人月 人年の無駄ですね

So just imagine how many man-months or man-years are wasted,

私が無駄にしたあの日のように

just like I wasted a day.

月1日の無駄でも 1億人を掛け算すると

If you just multiply by 100 million people, let's say losing one day a month,

どれだけの資源が無駄になるか分かりますね

whatever, and you see a vast amount of resource wasted.

つまり 貧富に関係なく平等にあるもの

And after all, poor countries, like rich countries, one thing we've got equal,

それは一日の長さであり 24時間です

is their days are the same length: 24 hours.

この時間という貴重な資源を失うと

So if you lose that precious resource,

豊かな国となんら変わりなく

where you are somewhat equal to the richer countries,

莫大な損失です

that's a huge waste.

そこで 私は何か証拠がないか探し始めました

So I started looking for any evidence that --

つながりが本当に生産性を向上させるのか？

does connectivity really increase productivity?

証拠に限りはありましたが このグラフを見つけました

And I couldn't find much, really, but I found this graph produced by the ITU,

ITU ジュネーブにある国際電気電信連合が作成したものです

which is the International Telecommunication Union, based in Geneva.

興味深いことを示しています

They show an interesting thing.

ここを見て下さい 横軸は所得レベルです

That you see, the horizontal axis is where you place your country.

米国や英国はこのあたり 図の外になります

So the United States or the UK would be here, outside.

縦軸は電話1台の経済効果です

And so the impact of one new telephone,

大変小さいですね

which is on the vertical axis, is very little.

一方 一人当たりのGNPが

But if you come back to a poorer country, where the GNP per capita is,

5百ドルや3百ドルの貧しい国だと

let's say, 500 dollars, or 300 dollars,

5～6千ドルの大きな経済効果があります

then the impact is huge: 6,000 dollars. Or 5,000 dollars.

では 一方

The question was,

バングラデシュで電話設置に幾らかかるか？

how much did it cost to install a new telephone in Bangladesh?

調べると2千ドルでした

It turns out: 2,000 dollars.

2千ドル払い 10年使えるとします

So if you spend 2,000 dollars, and let's say the telephone lasts 10 years,

1年5千ドルなら10年で5万ドルです

and if 5,000 dollars every year -- so that's 50,000 dollars.

これはもう明らかに相当の品物です

So obviously this was a gadget to have.

事実 デジタル革命が進んでいますから

And of course, if the cost of installing a telephone is going down,

仮に電話の設置費用が下がれば

because there's a digital revolution going on,

これは益々素晴しい

then it would be even more dramatic.

私も経済学をかじっていましたが

And I knew a little economics by then --

アダム スミス曰く 専門化が生産性を高める

it says Adam Smith taught us that specialization leads to productivity.

では どうすれば専門化が進むか？

But how would you specialize?

私が魚も獲る農家だとしましょう

Let's say I'm a fisherman and a farmer.

仕事の相方も同様に色んな仕事をする

And Chris is a fisherman farmer. Both are generalists.

専門を伸ばし相互依存するには

So the point is that we could only -- the only way we could depend on each other,

二人がつながっていることが不可欠です

is if we can connect with each other.

二人が近所に住んでれば 彼の家に歩いて行けばいい

And if we are neighbors, I could just walk over to his house.

でも経済活動は狭い範囲に制限されます

But then we are limiting our economic sphere to something very small area.

拡大するには 川が必要です

But in order to expand that, you need a river,

高速道路や電話が必要です

or you need a highway, or you need telephone lines.

いずれにせよ つながりによって相互依存が可能になり

But in any event, it's connectivity that leads to dependability.

相互依存が専門化を促し

And that leads to specialization.

さらに生産性が向上します

That leads to productivity.

私はこの課題に取り組み始め

So the question was, I started looking at this issue,

バングラデシュとニューヨークを行き来しました

and going back and forth between Bangladesh and New York.

バングラデシュに十分な電話がないのは

There were a lot of reasons people told me

沢山の理由があると人々は言いました

why we don't have enough telephones.

１つは購買力がないこと

And one of them is the lacking buying power.

貧しい人は確かに購買力に乏しい

Poor people apparently don't have the power to buy.

でも電話が生産手段なら心配無用です

But the point is, if it's a production tool, why do we have to worry about that?

つまり アメリカで車を購入する時

I mean, in America, people buy cars,

わずかばかりの頭金を払って

and they put very little money down.

車を手に入れ 仕事に行く

They get a car, and they go to work.

仕事によって給料が入る

The work pays them a salary;

給料で車の費用は時間をかけて払えばいい

the salary allows them to pay for the car over time.

車があれば元が取れる

The car pays for itself.

電話も生産手段であれば

So if the telephone is a production tool,

購買力の心配は無用です

then we don't quite have to worry about the purchasing power.

頭金を払うのは簡単ではないかもしれない

And of course, even if that's true, then what about initial buying power?

そこで ある種の共有ができないかと考えました

So then the question is, why can't we have some kind of shared access?

米国では誰もが銀行を必要としますが

In the United States, we have -- everybody needs a banking service,

銀行を買う人はほとんどいません

but very few of us are trying to buy a bank.

つまり銀行は 地域に貢献しているのです

So it's -- a bank tends to serve a whole community.

同じことを電話でもできるのではないか？

So we could do that for telephones.

衣食住の基本的ニーズが優先だと言う人もいましたが

And also people told me that we have a lot of important primary needs to meet:

それは過保護で

food, clothing, shelter, whatever.

干渉的な考えです

But again, it's very paternalistic.

まず収入を確保することが大事で

You should be raising income

何が必要かは 個々がを決めるべきなのです

and let people decide what they want to do with their money.

本当の問題はインフラの不足でした

But the real problem is the lack of other infrastructures.

新しいものの導入には基盤インフラが必要です

See, you need some kind of infrastructure to bring a new thing.

米国ではインターネット利用者が急増しましたが

For instance, the Internet was booming in the U.S.

みんなコンピュータを持っていて

because there were -- there were people who had computers.

モデムや電話線もあったので

They had modems.

インターネットのようなアイデアが簡単に広まりました

They had telephone lines, so it's very easy to bring in a new idea, like the Internet.

貧しい国はこうしたものがない

But that's what's lacking in a poor country.

例えば 信用調査をする方法がなかったし

So for example, we didn't have ways to have credit checks,

集金してくれる銀行もほとんどない

few banks to collect bills, etc.

で 貧困者向けのグラミン銀行に目を向けました

But that's why I noticed Grameen Bank, which is a bank for poor people,

1,100の支店を持ち 1万2千人のスタッフと230万人の借り手がいる

and had 1,100 branches, 12,000 employees, 2.3 million borrowers.

この支店網を

And they had these branches.

携帯基地局にしたネットワーク化を考えました

I thought I could put cell towers and create a network.

途中を省きますが 私は乗り出したわけです

And anyway, to cut the time short -- so I started --

まず グラミン銀行に出向いて提案しました

I first went to them and said,

”支店網をつなげれば効率的にできますよ”

"You know, perhaps I could connect all your branches and make you more efficient."

でも 彼らは電話のない国で発展を遂げた組織です

But you know, they have, after all, evolved in a country without telephones,

組織は分権化されていました

so they are decentralized. I mean, of course there might be other good reasons,

その必要性があったのでしょう

but this was one of the reasons -- they had to be.

支店間のネットワーク化で混乱するより

And so they were not that interested to connect all their branches,

今のままでよいと彼らは考えた

and then to be -- and rock the boat.

そこで銀行のしくみに焦点を絞ってみました

So I started focusing. What is it that they really do?

銀行でお金を借ります

So what happens is that somebody borrows money from the bank.

彼女は牛を買い 牛はミルクを出します

She typically buys a cow. The cow gives milk.

ミルクを村人に売り それで銀行に返済します

And she sells the milk to the villagers, and pays off the loan.

これが典型的な商売―食料流通のしくみです

And this is a business for her, but it's milk for everybody else.

携帯が牛になると閃いた

And suddenly I realized that a cell phone could be a cow.

つまり 彼女は2百ドルを銀行から借りる

Because some way she could borrow 200 dollars from the bank,

電話を購入し その電話をみんなに使ってもらう

get a phone and have the phone for everybody.

それを商売にするのです

And it's a business for her.

グラミン銀行に手紙を出し しばらくして返事がきました

So I wrote to the bank, and they thought for a while, and they said,

”少し突飛な話ですが 筋は通っていますね

"It's a little crazy, but logical.

実現可能なら事業化させましょう”

If you think it can be done, come and make it happen."

私は仕事を辞め バングラデシュに帰ってきました

So I quit my job; I went back to Bangladesh.

ベンガリ語でみんなの電話という意味の

I created a company in America called Gonofone,

ゴノフォンという会社を設立し

which in Bengali means "people's phone."

米国投資家の資金を集めました

And angel investors in America put in money into that.

私は世界を飛び回りました

I flew around the world.

あちこちで断られました

After about a million -- I mean, I got rejected from lots of places,

貧しい国の最貧層が対象なので

because I was not only trying to go to a poor country,

無理もありません

I was trying to go to the poor of the poor country.

世界中を飛び回り 髪の毛をたっぷり失い

After about a million miles, and a meaningful --

ついにグラミンフォンを設立しました

a substantial loss of hair, I eventually put together a consortium, and --

ノルウェーの電話会社が

which involved the Norwegian telephone company,

ノウハウを提供し

which provided the know-how,

グラミン銀行が地方展開に必要なインフラを提供しました

and the Grameen Bank provided the infrastructure to spread the service.

経緯は省きますが これが現在の受信地域です

To make the story short, here is the coverage of the country.

ほとんどの地域をカバーしています

You can see it's pretty much covered.

バングラデシュにも 過疎地域があります

Even in Bangladesh, there are some empty places.

でも 今年は更に約3億ドルの投資を行い

But we are also investing around another 300 million dollars this year

過疎地域にもサービスを広げるつもりです

to extend that coverage.

先ほどお話した牛のモデルですが

Now, about that cow model I talked about.

11万5千人が 電話サービスを近所の人たちに

There are about 115,000 people who are retailing telephone services

提供しています

in their neighborhoods.

5万2千の村 つまり8千万人が利用しています

And it's serving 52,000 villages, which represent about 80 million people.

これらの電話が稼ぎ出す収入は

And these phones are generating

グラミンフォンに1億ドルをもたらし

about 100 million dollars for the company.

販売員の収入は1日2ドル 年間で7百ドルになります

And two dollars profit per entrepreneur per day, which is like 700 dollars per year.

電話は万能ですから

And of course, it's very beneficial in a lot of ways.

所得や福祉を向上させます

It increases income, improves welfare, etc.

グラミンフォンは350万人の加入者を持つ―

And the result is, right now, this company is the largest telephone company,

最大手の電話会社になりました

with 3.5 million subscribers,

先ほどの11万5千台の電話が

115,000 of these phones I talked about --

全体3分の1の通話を担っています

that produces about a third of the traffic in the network.

2004年の税引き利益は1億2千万ドル

And 2004, the net profit, after taxes --

かなり莫大な税額を課されました

very serious taxes -- was 120 million dollars.

当社は政府財政に1億9千万ドルの貢献をしました

And the company contributed about 190 million dollars to the government coffers.

ここで検討してみましょう

And again, here are some of the lessons.

政府の経済向上事業は必要か？

"The government needs to provide economically viable services."

実は 民間企業にも実行可能なのです

Actually, this is an instance where private companies can provide that.

政府が企業を補助する必要があると―

"Governments need to subsidize private companies."

考える人もいますが

This is what some people think.

企業が納税で政府を助けているのです

And actually, private companies help governments with taxes.

貧しい人々は受益者でしかない？

"Poor people are recipients."

いいえ 貧しい人々も資源なのです

Poor people are a resource.

貧困地域のサービスはコスト高？

"Services cost too much for the poor."

貧しい人の関与がコストを下げるのです

Their involvement reduces the cost.

彼らは教育もなく力にならない？

"The poor are uneducated and cannot do much."

有能で向学心もある逆境に強い人たちです

They are very eager learners and very capable survivors.

実際驚くほどでした

I've been very surprised.

多くが電話の使い方を1日で覚えました

Most of them learn how to operate a telephone within a day.

貧しい国には援助が必要？

"Poor countries need aid."

いいえ必要なのはビジネスです

Businesses -- this one company has raised the --

当社のもたらした経済効果の5％だけでも

if the ideal figures are even five percent true, this one company

海外援助の総額を上回るGNP拡大効果をあげました

is raising the GNP of the country much more than the aid the country receives.

先にも話したように

And as I was trying to show you, as far as I'm concerned,

援助には政府と市民を分断する弊害があるのです

aid does damages because it removes the government from its citizens.

こちらは米国人発明家ディーン ケーメンとの新事業です

And this is a new project I have with Dean Kamen, the famous inventor in America.

彼は発電機を作ってきたのですが

He has produced some power generators,

今 バングラデシュの二つの村で実験をしています

which we are now doing an experiment in Bangladesh,

牛の糞から発生する―

in two villages where cow manure is producing biogas,

バイオガスで動く発電機です

which is running these generators.

1つの発電機で20家庭分の電気を販売しています

And each of these generators is selling electricity to 20 houses each.

これはまだほんの実験です

It's just an experiment.

どう発展していくかまだ分かりませんが

We don't know how far it will go,

すでに動き始めています

but it's going on.

以上です　ありがとう

Thank you.