Daniel Kraft: Medicine's future? There's an app for that

62,358 views ・ 2011-06-13

TED


Please double-click on the English subtitles below to play the video.

00:16
A couple of years ago,
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when I was attending the TED conference in Long Beach,
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I met Harriet.
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We'd actually met online before -- not the way you're thinking.
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We were introduced because we both knew Linda Avey,
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one of the founders of the first online personal genomic companies.
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And because we shared our genetic information with Linda,
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she could see that Harriet and I shared
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a very rare type of mitochondrial DNA, haplotype K1a1b1a,
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which meant we were distantly related.
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We actually share the same genealogy with Ötzi the Iceman.
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So -- Ötzi, Harriet and me.
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And being the current day, of course, we started our own Facebook group.
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You're all welcome to join.
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When I met Harriet in person the next year at the TED conference,
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she'd gone online and ordered our own happy haplotype T-shirts.
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(Laughter)
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Why am I telling you this story?
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What does it have to do with the future of health?
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Well, the way I met Harriet is an example
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of how leveraging cross-disciplinary, exponentially growing technologies
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is affecting our future of health and wellness --
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from low-cost gene analysis
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to the ability to do powerful bioinformatics
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to the connection of the Internet and social networking.
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What I'd like to talk about today
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is understanding these exponential technologies.
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We often think linearly.
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But if you think about it, if you have a lily pad
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and it just divided every single day --
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two, four, eight, sixteen -- in 15 days, you'd have 32,000.
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What do you think you'd have in a month?
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We're at a billion.
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If we start to think exponentially,
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we can see how this is starting to affect all the technologies around us.
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Many of these technologies, speaking as a physician and innovator,
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we can start to leverage, to impact the future of our own health
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and of health care,
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and to address many of the major challenges in health care today,
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ranging from the exponential costs to the aging population,
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the way we really don't use information very well today,
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the fragmentation of care
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and the often very difficult course of adoption of innovation.
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And one of the major things we can do is move the curve to the left.
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We spend most of our money on the last 20 percent of life.
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What if we could incentivize physicians in the health care system
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and our own selves
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to move the curve to the left and improve our health,
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leveraging technology as well?
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Now my favorite example of exponential technology,
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we all have in our pocket.
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If you think about it, these are really dramatically improving.
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I mean, this is the iPhone 4.
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Imagine what the iPhone 8 will be able to do.
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Now, I've gained some insight into this.
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I've been the track share for the medicine portion
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of a new institution called Singularity University,
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based in Silicon Valley.
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We bring together each summer about 100 very talented students
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from around the world.
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And we look at these exponential technologies from medicine,
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biotech, artificial intelligence, robotics, nanotechnology, space,
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and address how we can cross-train and leverage these
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to impact major unmet goals.
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We also have seven-day executive programs.
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And coming up next month is FutureMed,
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a program to help cross-train and leverage technologies into medicine.
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Now, I mentioned the phone.
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These mobile phones have over 20,000 different mobile apps available.
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There's one out of the UK where you can pee on a little chip,
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connect it to your iPhone,
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and check for an STD.
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I don't know if I'd try that, but it's available.
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There are other sorts of applications.
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Merging your phone and diagnostics, for example,
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measuring your blood glucose on your iPhone
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and sending that to your physician,
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so they can better understand and you can better understand
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your blood sugars as a diabetic.
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So let's see how exponential technologies are taking health care.
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Let's start with faster.
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It's no secret that computers, through Moore's law,
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are speeding up faster and faster.
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We can do more powerful things with them.
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They're really approaching -- in many cases, surpassing --
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the ability of the human mind.
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But where I think computational speed is most applicable is in imaging.
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The ability now to look inside the body in real time
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with very high resolution
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is really becoming incredible.
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And we're layering multiple technologies -- PET scans, CT scans
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and molecular diagnostics --
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to find and seek things at different levels.
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Here you're going to see the very highest resolution MRI scan done today,
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of Marc Hodosh, the curator of TEDMED.
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And now we can see inside of the brain
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at a resolution and ability never before available,
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and essentially learn how to reconstruct and maybe even reengineer
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or backwards engineer the brain,
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so we can better understand pathology, disease and therapy.
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We can look inside with real-time fMRI in the brain at real time.
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And by understanding these sorts of processes and these connections,
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we're going to understand the effects of medication or meditation
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and better personalize and make effective, for example,
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psychoactive drugs.
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The scanners for these are getting smaller, less expensive
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and more portable.
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And this sort of data explosion available from these
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is really almost becoming a challenge.
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The scan of today takes up about 800 books, or 20 gigabytes.
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The scan in a couple of years will be one terabyte, or 800,000 books.
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How do you leverage that information?
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Let's get personal.
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I won't ask who here's had a colonoscopy, but if you're over age 50,
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it's time for your screening colonoscopy.
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How'd you like to avoid the pointy end of the stick?
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Now there's essentially virtual colonoscopy.
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Compare those two pictures.
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As a radiologist, you can basically fly through your patient's colon,
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and augmenting that with artificial intelligence,
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potentially identify a lesion that we might have missed,
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but using AI on top of radiology,
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we can find lesions that were missed before.
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Maybe this will encourage people to get colonoscopies
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that wouldn't have otherwise.
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This is an example of this paradigm shift.
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We're moving to this integration of biomedicine, information technology,
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wireless and, I would say, mobile now -- this era of digital medicine.
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Even my stethoscope is now digital, and of course, there's an app for that.
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We're moving, obviously, to the era of the tricorder.
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So the handheld ultrasound is basically surpassing
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and supplanting the stethoscope.
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These are now at a price point of what used to be 100,000 euros
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or a couple hundred-thousand dollars.
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For about 5,000 dollars,
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I can have the power of a very powerful diagnostic device in my hand.
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Merging this now with the advent of electronic medical records --
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in the US, we're still less than 20 percent electronic;
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here in the Netherlands, I think it's more than 80 percent.
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Now that we're switching to merging medical data,
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making it available electronically,
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we can crowd-source the information, and as a physician,
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I can access my patients' data from wherever I am,
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just through my mobile device.
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And now, of course, we're in the era of the iPad, even the iPad 2.
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Just last month,
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the first FDA-approved application was approved
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to allow radiologists to do actual reading on these sorts of devices.
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So certainly, the physicians of today, including myself,
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are completely reliable on these devices.
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And as you saw just about a month ago,
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Watson from IBM beat the two champions in "Jeopardy."
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So I want you to imagine when, in a couple of years,
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we've started to apply this cloud-based information,
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when we really have the AI physician and leverage our brains to connectivity
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to make decisions and diagnostics at a level never done.
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Already today, you don't need to go to your physician in many cases.
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Only in about 20 percent of visits do you need to lay hands on the patient.
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We're now in the era of virtual visits.
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From Skype-type visits you can do with American Well,
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to Cisco, that's developed a very complex health presence system,
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the ability to interact with your health care provider is different.
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And these are being augmented even by our devices, again, today.
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My friend Jessica sent me a picture of her head laceration,
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so I can save her a trip to the emergency room,
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and do diagnostics that way.
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Or maybe we can leverage today's gaming technology,
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like the Microsoft Kinect,
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hack that to enable diagnostics, for example, in diagnosing stroke,
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using simple motion detection, using $100 devices.
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We can actually now visit our patients robotically.
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This is the RP7;
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if I'm a hematologist, I can visit another clinic or hospital.
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These are being augmented by a whole suite of tools
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actually in the home now.
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We already have wireless scales.
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You step on the scale, tweet your weight to your friends,
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they can keep you in line.
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We have wireless blood pressure cuffs.
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A whole gamut of technologies are being put together.
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Instead of wearing kludgy devices, we put on a simple patch.
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This was developed at Stanford.
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It's called iRhythm; it completely supplants the prior technology
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at a much lower price point, with much more effectivity.
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We're also in the era today of quantified self.
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Consumers now can basically buy $100 devices, like this little Fitbit.
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I can measure my steps, my caloric outtake.
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I can get insight into that on a daily basis
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and share it with my friends or physician.
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There's watches that measure your heart rate, Zeo sleep monitors,
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a suite of tools that enable you to leverage
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and have insight into your own health.
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As we start to integrate this information,
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we'll know better what to do with it, and have better insight
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into our own pathologies, health and wellness.
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There's even mirrors that can pick up your pulse rate.
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And I would argue, in the future,
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we'll have wearable devices in our clothes, monitoring us 24/7.
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And just like the OnStar system in cars, your red light might go on.
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It won't say "check engine"; it'll be a "check your body" light,
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and you'll go get it taken care of.
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Probably in a few years,
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you'll look in your mirror and it'll be diagnosing you.
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(Laughter)
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For those of you with kiddos at home,
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how would you like a wireless diaper that supports your --
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(Laughter)
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More information, I think, than you might need,
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but it's going to be here.
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Now, we've heard a lot today about technology and connection.
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And I think some of these technologies
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will enable us to be more connected with our patients, to take more time
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and do the important human-touch elements of medicine,
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as augmented by these technologies.
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Now, we've talked about augmenting the patient.
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How about augmenting the physician?
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We're now in the era of super-enabling the surgeon,
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who can now go into the body and do robotic surgery, which is here today,
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at a level that was not really possible even five years ago.
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And now this is being augmented with further layers of technology,
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like augmented reality.
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So the surgeon can see inside the patient, through their lens,
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where the tumor is, where the blood vessels are.
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This can be integrated with decision support.
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A surgeon in New York can help a surgeon in Amsterdam, for example.
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And we're entering an era of truly scarless surgery called NOTES,
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where the robotic endoscope can come out the stomach
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and pull out that gallbladder,
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all in a scarless way and robotically.
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This is called NOTES, and it's coming -- basically scarless surgery,
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as mediated by robotic surgery.
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Now, how about controlling other elements?
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For those who have disabilities -- the paraplegic,
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there's the brain-computer interface, or BCI,
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where chips have been put on the motor cortex
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of completely quadriplegic patients,
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and they can control a cursor or a wheelchair
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or, potentially, a robotic arm.
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These devices are getting smaller
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and going into more and more of these patients.
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Still in clinical trials,
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but imagine when we can connect these, for example,
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to the amazing bionic limb,
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such as the DEKA Arm, built by Dean Kamen and colleagues,
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which has 17 degrees of motion and freedom,
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and can allow the person who's lost a limb
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to have much higher dexterity or control than they've had in the past.
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So we're really entering the era of wearable robotics, actually.
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If you haven't lost a limb but had a stroke,
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you can wear these augmented limbs.
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Or if you're a paraplegic -- I've visited the folks at Berkeley Bionics --
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they've developed eLEGS.
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I took this video last week.
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Here's a paraplegic patient, walking by strapping on these exoskeletons.
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He's otherwise completely wheelchair-bound.
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This is the early era of wearable robotics.
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And by leveraging these sorts of technologies,
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we're going to change the definition of disability
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to, in some cases, be superability, or super-enabling.
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This is Aimee Mullins, who lost her lower limbs as a young child,
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and Hugh Herr, who's a professor at MIT,
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who lost his limbs in a climbing accident.
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And now both of them can climb better, move faster, swim differently
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with their prosthetics than us normal-abled persons.
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How about other exponentials?
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Clearly the obesity trend is exponentially going in the wrong direction,
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including with huge costs.
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But the trend in medicine is to get exponentially smaller.
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A few examples: we're now in the era of "Fantastic Voyage," the iPill.
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You can swallow this completely integrated device.
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It can take pictures of your GI system,
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help diagnose and treat as it moves through your GI tract.
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We get into even smaller micro-robots
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that will eventually, autonomously, move through your system,
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and be able to do things surgeons can't do
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in a much less invasive manner.
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Sometimes these might self-assemble in your GI system,
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and be augmented in that reality.
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On the cardiac side, pacemakers are getting smaller
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and much easier to place,
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so no need to train an interventional cardiologist to place them.
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And they'll be wirelessly telemetered to your mobile devices,
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so you can go places and be monitored remotely.
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These are shrinking even further.
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This one is in prototyping by Medtronic; it's smaller than a penny.
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Artificial retinas, the ability to put arrays on the back of the eyeball
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and allow the blind to see --
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also in early trials, but moving into the future.
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These are going to be game-changing.
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Or for those of us who are sighted,
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how about having the assisted-living contact lens?
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Bluetooth, Wi-Fi available -- beams back images to your eye.
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(Laughter)
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Now, if you have trouble maintaining your diet,
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it might help to have some extra imagery
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to remind you how many calories are going to be coming at you.
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How about enabling the pathologist to use their cell phone
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to see at a microscopic level
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and to lumber that data back to the cloud and make better diagnostics?
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In fact, the whole era of laboratory medicine
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is completely changing.
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We can now leverage microfluidics,
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like this chip made by Steve Quake at Stanford.
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Microfluidics can replace an entire lab of technicians;
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put it on a chip, enable thousands of tests at the point of care,
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anywhere in the world.
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This will really leverage technology to the rural and the underserved
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and enable what used to be thousand-dollar tests to be done for pennies,
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and at the point of care.
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If we go down the small pathway a little bit further,
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we're entering the era of nanomedicine,
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the ability to make devices super-small,
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to the point where we can design red blood cells
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or microrobots that monitor our blood system or immune system,
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or even those that might clear out the clots from our arteries.
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Now how about exponentially cheaper?
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Not something we usually think about in the era of medicine,
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but hard disks used to be 3,400 dollars for 10 megabytes -- exponentially cheaper.
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In genomics now, the genome cost about a billion dollars
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about 10 years ago, when the first one came out.
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We're now approaching essentially a $1,000 genome, probably next year.
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And in two years, a $100 genome.
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What will we do with $100 genomes?
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Soon we'll have millions of these tests available.
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Then it gets interesting, when we start to crowd-source that information,
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and enter the era of true personalized medicine:
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the right drug for the right person at the right time,
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instead of what we're doing now, which is the same drug for everybody,
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blockbuster drug medications, which don't work for the individual.
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Many different companies are working on leveraging these approaches.
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I'll show you a simple example, from 23andMe again.
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My data indicates I've got about average risk
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for developing macular degeneration, a kind of blindness.
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But if I take that same data, upload it to deCODEme,
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I can look at my risk for type 2 diabetes; I'm at almost twice the risk.
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I might want to watch how much dessert I have at lunch, for example.
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It might change my behavior.
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Leveraging my knowledge of my pharmacogenomics:
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how my genes modulate, what my drugs do and what doses I need
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will become increasingly important,
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and once in the hands of individuals and patients,
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will make better drug dosing and selection available.
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So again, it's not just genes, it's multiple details --
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our habits, our environmental exposures.
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When was the last time your doctor asked where you've lived?
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Geomedicine: where you live, what you've been exposed to,
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can dramatically affect your health.
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We can capture that information.
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Genomics, proteomics, the environment --
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all this data streaming at us individually and as physicians:
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How do we manage it?
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We're now entering the era of systems medicine, systems biology,
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where we can start to integrate all this information.
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And by looking at the patterns, for example, in our blood,
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of 10,000 biomarkers in a single test,
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we can look at patterns and detect disease at a much earlier stage.
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This is called by Lee Hood, the father of the field, P4 Medicine.
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We'll be predictive and know what you're likely to have.
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We can be preventative; that prevention can be personalized.
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More importantly, it'll be increasingly participatory.
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Through websites like PatientsLikeMe
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or managing your data on Microsoft HealthVault or Google Health,
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leveraging this together in participatory ways
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will be increasingly important.
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I'll finish up with exponentially better.
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We'd like to get therapies better and more effective.
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Today we treat high blood pressure mostly with pills.
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What if we take a new device,
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knock out the nerve vessels that help mediate blood pressure,
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and in a single therapy, basically cure hypertension?
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This is a new device doing essentially that.
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It should be on the market in a year or two.
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How about more targeted therapies for cancer?
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I'm an oncologist and know that most of what we give is essentially poison.
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We learned at Stanford and other places that we can discover cancer stem cells,
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the ones that seem to be really responsible for disease relapse.
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So if you think of cancer as a weed,
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we often can whack the weed away and it seems to shrink,
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but it often comes back.
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So we're attacking the wrong target.
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The cancer stem cells remain,
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and the tumor can return months or years later.
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We're now learning to identify the cancer stem cells
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and identify those as targets and go for the long-term cure.
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We're entering the era of personalized oncology,
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the ability to leverage all of this data together,
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analyze the tumor
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and come up with a real, specific cocktail for the individual patient.
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I'll close with regenerative medicine.
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I've studied a lot about stem cells.
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Embryonic stem cells are particularly powerful.
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We have adult stem cells throughout our body;
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we use those in bone marrow transplantation.
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Geron, last year, started the first trial using human embryonic stem cells
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to treat spinal cord injuries.
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Still a phase I trial, but evolving.
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We've been using adult stem cells in clinical trials for about 15 years
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to approach a whole range of topics, particularly cardiovascular disease.
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16:21
If we take our own bone marrow cells and treat a patient with a heart attack,
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we can see much improved heart function and better survival
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using our own bone marrow derived cells after a heart attack.
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I invented a device called the MarrowMiner,
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a much less invasive way for harvesting bone marrow.
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16:35
It's now been FDA approved; hopefully on the market in the next year.
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Hopefully you can appreciate the device
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going through the patient's body removing bone marrow, not with 200 punctures,
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but with a single puncture, under local anesthesia.
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16:46
Where is stem-cell therapy going?
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If you think about it,
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16:49
every cell in your body has the same DNA you had when you were an embryo.
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16:53
We can now reprogram your skin cells
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to actually act like a pluripotent embryonic stem cell
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and utilize those, potentially, to treat multiple organs in the same patient,
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making personalized stem cell lines.
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I think there'll be a new era of your own stem cell banking
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to have in the freezer your own cardiac cells, myocytes and neural cells
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17:09
to use them in the future, should you need them.
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We're integrating this now with a whole era of cellular engineering,
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and integrating exponential technologies for essentially 3D organ printing,
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replacing the ink with cells,
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and essentially building and reconstructing a 3D organ.
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17:23
That's where things are heading.
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Still very early days,
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but I think, as integration of exponential technologies,
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this is the example.
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So in closing, as you think about technology trends
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and how to impact health and medicine,
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we're entering an era of miniaturization,
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17:36
decentralization and personalization.
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And by pulling these things together,
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if we start to think about how to understand and leverage them,
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we're going to empower the patient, enable the doctor, enhance wellness
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and begin to cure the well before they get sick.
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Because I know as a doctor, if someone comes to me with stage I disease,
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I'm thrilled; we can often cure them.
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But often it's too late,
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and it's stage III or IV cancer, for example.
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So by leveraging these technologies together,
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I think we'll enter a new era that I like to call stage 0 medicine.
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And as a cancer doctor, I'm looking forward to being out of a job.
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Thanks very much.
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(Applause)
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Host: Thank you. Thank you.
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(Applause)
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Take a bow, take a bow.
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