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00:00
Translator: Joseph Geni
Reviewer: Joanna Pietrulewicz
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譯者: 易帆 余
審譯者: jackson leo
00:12
So what if I could make for you
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如果我可以幫你做出一個訂製嬰兒,
那會發生甚麼事?
00:14
a designer baby?
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00:17
What if you as a parent-to-be
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要是身為父母的你,
00:20
and I as a scientist decided
to go down that road together?
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與身為科學家的我
決定一起合作完成呢?
00:25
What if we didn't?
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要是我們沒這樣做呢?
00:27
What if we thought, "That's a bad idea,"
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如果我們認為「訂製寶寶不對」,
00:29
but many of our family,
friends and coworkers
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但我們的家人、朋友、同仁
00:33
did make that decision?
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很多人卻做了那個決定,
那又會如何呢?
00:36
Let's fast-forward just 15 years from now.
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讓我們快進到 15 年之後,
00:39
Let's pretend it's the year 2030,
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假設現在是 2030 年,
00:42
and you're a parent.
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你已經為人父母,
00:44
You have your daughter,
Marianne, next to you,
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坐在你旁邊的是你女兒,瑪麗安,
00:47
and in 2030, she is what we call a natural
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2030 年,我們稱她為自然人
00:51
because she has no genetic modifications.
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因為她沒有被基因改造過,
00:55
And because you and your partner
consciously made that decision,
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而因為你和你的另一半所做的決定,
00:59
many in your social circle,
they kind of look down on you.
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使你在很多社交場合中,
讓人有點瞧不起你。
01:02
They think you're, like,
a Luddite or a technophobe.
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他們認為你是個反對新科技
或排斥科技產品的人。
01:07
Marianne's best friend Jenna,
who lives right next door,
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你女兒最好的朋友珍娜,
就住在你家隔壁,
01:10
is a very different story.
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完全是另一回事。
01:12
She was born a genetically modified
designer baby with numerous upgrades.
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她是一個基因改造寶寶,
而且升級了很多功能。
01:20
Yeah. Upgrades.
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是的,升級。
01:22
And these enhancements were introduced
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而這些改造,是經由一種
01:25
using a new genetic
modification technology
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全新的基因改造技術所完成,
01:28
that goes by the funny name CRISPR,
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它有一個好笑的名稱,
叫做「CRISPR」,
01:30
you know, like something's crisp,
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有點像脆薯的感覺,
01:32
this is CRISPR.
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這是 CRISPR 。
01:35
The scientist that Jenna's parents
hired to do this
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珍娜父母親聘請科學家來做這件事情
01:38
for several million dollars
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需要花他們數百萬美元,
01:41
introduced CRISPR
into a whole panel of human embryos.
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因為他們要在一整盤的胚胎上
使用 CRISPR 技術,
01:46
And then they used genetic testing,
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且之後還要進行基因檢測,
01:47
and they predicted that
that little tiny embryo, Jenna's embryo,
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並確定篩選出來的小胚胎,
珍娜的胚胎,
01:51
would be the best of the bunch.
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會是當中最棒的一個。
01:54
And now, Jenna is an actual, real person.
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現在,珍娜長大了,
01:58
She's sitting on the carpet
in your living room
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她坐在你家客廳的地毯上,
02:01
playing with your daughter Marianne.
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跟你女兒瑪麗安一起玩。
02:04
And your families have known
each other for years now,
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你們雙方家庭認識好幾年了,
02:08
and it's become very clear to you
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你們都很清楚,
02:10
that Jenna is extraordinary.
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珍娜相當優秀。
02:13
She's incredibly intelligent.
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她聰明絕頂。
02:15
If you're honest with yourself,
she's smarter than you,
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如果你夠自覺的話,
她的確比你聰明,
02:18
and she's five years old.
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而且她才五歲。
02:20
She's beautiful, tall, athletic,
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她長得很漂亮、身材高挑,
又有運動細胞,
02:24
and the list goes on and on.
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還有一大堆說不完的優點。
02:28
And in fact, there's
a whole new generation
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實際上,到時候整個世代
02:30
of these GM kids like Jenna.
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會像珍娜一樣,都是基改小孩。
02:33
And so far it looks like
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到時候,他們看起來
02:35
they're healthier
than their parents' generation,
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似乎比他們父母
那個世代的人更健康,
02:38
than your generation.
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比你這個世代的人更健康。
02:40
And they have lower health care costs.
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而且他們的醫療照顧成本也比較低,
02:43
They're immune to a host
of health conditions,
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他們在健康條件方面,
對疾病是免疫的,
02:46
including HIV/AIDS and genetic diseases.
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包括愛滋病及其它基因上的疾病。
02:50
It all sounds so great,
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聽起來相當完美,
02:53
but you can't help but have
this sort of unsettling feeling,
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但你難免會有一種不安的感覺。
02:56
a gut feeling, that there's something
just not quite right about Jenna,
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一種覺得珍娜好像不太對勁的直覺,
03:01
and you've had the same feeling
about other GM kids that you've met.
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而且你對其他你遇到的
基改小孩都有同樣的感受。
03:06
You were also reading
in the newspaper earlier this week
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那個禮拜稍早,你讀到了一篇新聞,
03:10
that a study of these children
who were born as designer babies
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一篇有關於基因改造小孩的研究,
03:14
indicates they may have some issues,
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研究指出他們可能有一些狀況了,
03:16
like increased aggressiveness
and narcissism.
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像是越來越好鬥、自戀。
03:21
But more immediately on your mind
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但你腦袋立刻想到的是……
03:23
is some news that you just got
from Jenna's family.
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你從珍娜家人那邊聽到的事情。
03:26
She's so smart,
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珍娜很聰明,
03:28
she's now going to be going
to a special school,
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她準備上特殊學校,
03:31
a different school
than your daughter Marianne,
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不同於你女兒的學校,
03:34
and this is kind of throwing
your family into a disarray.
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這件事讓你的家人陷入一場混亂。
03:37
Marianne's been crying,
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瑪麗安一直哭,
03:39
and last night when you took her to bed
to kiss her goodnight,
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昨晚妳跟女兒在床上道晚安時,
03:42
she said, "Daddy, will Jenna
even be my friend anymore?"
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她問你:「爸爸,珍娜不會
再跟我做朋友了嗎?」
03:48
So now, as I've been telling you
this imagined 2030 story,
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雖然,我現在說的是
2030 年想像出來的場景,
03:51
I have a feeling
that I may have put some of you
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我在想,各位是不是覺得我所說的
03:54
into this sci-fi
frame of reference. Right?
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像是一種科幻情節,對吧?
03:57
You think you're reading a sci-fi book.
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一種好像在讀科幻小說一樣的感覺。
03:59
Or maybe, like,
in Halloween mode of thinking.
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或者,像是萬聖節前夕的場景。
04:02
But this is really
a possible reality for us,
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但從現在起 15 年內,
04:05
just 15 years from now.
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以上是真的有可能發生的。
04:07
I'm a stem cell and genetics researcher
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我是一位幹細胞基因研究人員,
04:10
and I can see this new CRISPR technology
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我已經可以看到 CRISPR 這項新技術
04:13
and its potential impact.
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它潛在的影響力。
04:15
And we may find ourselves in that reality,
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而我們人類也許可以
在那個實境當中找到自己,
04:19
and a lot will depend
on what we decide to do today.
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而這取決於我們今天所做的決定。
04:23
And if you're still
kind of thinking in sci-fi mode,
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如果你還在想,這有點科幻,
04:26
consider that the world of science
had a huge shock earlier this year,
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思考一下今年稍早
科學界發生的重大事件,
04:30
and the public largely
doesn't even know about it.
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大部分的人都不知道這件事,
04:33
Researchers in China just a few months ago
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幾個月前,中國的研究人員,
04:36
reported the creation
of genetically modified human embryos.
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發表了他們已經創造出
人類基改胚胎。
04:41
This was the first time in history.
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這是史上第一次。
04:43
And they did it using
this new CRISPR technology.
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他們就是運用 CRISPR 這項技術。
04:47
It didn't work perfectly,
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雖然做得不怎麼完美,
04:49
but I still think
they sort of cracked the door ajar
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但我在想,
他們已經掀開了潘朵拉盒的秘密了。
04:52
on a Pandora's box here.
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04:56
And I think some people
are going to run with this technology
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我認為已經有人要用這項技術
04:59
and try to make designer babies.
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嘗試做出訂製嬰兒。
05:02
Now, before I go on, some of you
may hold up your hands and say,
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在我繼續說明之前,
你們有些人可能會想舉手說,
05:05
"Stop, Paul, wait a minute.
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「停,保羅,等一下。
05:07
Wouldn't that be illegal?
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這不是不合法的嗎?
05:09
You can't just go off
and create a designer baby."
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你不能不管法律,
執意要做這件事吧?」
05:13
And in fact, to some extent, you're right.
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沒錯,在某種程度上,你是對的。
05:15
In some countries, you couldn't do that.
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有些國家,你確實不能做。
05:18
But in many other countries,
including my country, the US,
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但有很多國家,
包括我的國家,美國,
05:21
there's actually no law on this,
so in theory, you could do it.
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實際上根本都還沒有
相關的法律規範,
所以理論上,你可以做。
05:26
And there was another development
this year that resonates in this area,
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今年,在這個領域
有另外一個重要的事件發生,
05:30
and that happened
not so far from here over in the UK.
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這件事就發生在離這兒不遠的英國。
05:34
And the UK traditionally
has been the strictest country
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英國傳統上是個非常嚴謹的國家,
05:37
when it comes to human
genetic modification.
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一旦涉及到有關人類的基改問題,
05:40
It was illegal there,
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在英國,是不合法的,
05:42
but just a few months ago,
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但就在幾個月前,
05:43
they carved out an exception to that rule.
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他們在這條規則上
增訂了一條豁免條款。
05:46
They passed a new law
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他們通過了一條新的法律,
05:47
allowing the creation
of genetically modified humans
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有條件允許製造基改人類,
05:51
with the noble goal of trying
to prevent a rare kind of genetic disease.
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只要你有預防類似
罕見基因疾病這樣的崇高目的。
05:56
But still I think in combination
these events are pushing us
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但我依然認為,這些綜合事件,
05:59
further towards an acceptance
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目的都是要強迫我們接受
06:02
of human genetic modification.
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人類的基因改造。
06:05
So I've been talking
about this CRISPR technology.
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我一直在談 CRISPR 技術。
06:08
What actually is CRISPR?
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那 CRISPR 到底是甚麼?
06:11
So if you think about the GMOs
that we're all more familiar with,
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如果你想像一下
我們都孰悉的基改生物,
06:14
like GMO tomatoes and wheat
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像是基改的番茄、小麥,
06:17
and things like that,
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等等類似的東西,
06:19
this technology
is similar to the technologies
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這項技術的原理
就跟我們製造基改食物的技術類似,
06:22
that were used to make those,
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06:24
but it's dramatically better,
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但它表現得更好,
06:26
cheaper and faster.
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更便宜、更快速。
06:29
So what is it?
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那它的原理是甚麼?
06:31
It's actually like
a genetic Swiss army knife.
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它有點像是瑞士基因軍用刀。
06:33
We can pretend this is a Swiss army knife
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我們假裝它就是瑞士軍用刀,
06:36
with different tools in it,
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裡面有各種不同的工具,
06:37
and one of the tools
is kind of like a magnifying glass
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其中一個工具像是放大鏡,
06:40
or a GPS for our DNA,
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或是說我們 DNA 的導航器,
06:43
so it can home in on a certain spot.
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它可以導引到某個
特定的 DNA 位置片段。
06:46
And the next tool is like scissors
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下一個工具像是一把剪刀,
06:47
that can cut the DNA right in that spot.
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它可以準確地把該位置的
DNA 片段剪下來。
06:51
And finally we have a pen
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最後,我們會有一隻筆,
06:52
where we can literally rewrite
the genetic code in that location.
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我們完全可以在截斷點處
重新編寫基因碼。
06:57
It's really that simple.
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真的就這麼簡單。
06:59
And this technology, which came
on the scene just three years ago,
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這項科技,才剛誕生三年,
07:03
has taken science by storm.
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但已經造成科學界的轟動。
07:05
It's evolving so fast, and it's
so freaking exciting to scientists,
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它演化地相當快,
科學家們都相當興奮,
07:10
and I admit I'm fascinated by it
and we use it in my own lab,
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我承認我對這項技術也很著迷,
我們也會在自己的實驗室裡使用它,
07:14
that I think someone
is going to go that extra step
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所以我認為已經有人
要跨出下一步了,
07:18
and continue the GM human embryo work
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並開始進行人類胚胎的
基因改造工程了,
07:21
and maybe make designer babies.
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且很有可能會製造出訂製嬰兒。
07:24
This is so ubiquitous now.
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類似的現象到處都是,
07:26
It just came on the scene three years ago.
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而這只不過才三年的時間,
07:29
Thousands of labs
literally have this in hand today,
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已經有好幾千個實驗室
掌握了這項技術,
07:33
and they're doing important research.
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他們已經開始進行重要的研究。
07:35
Most of them are not interested
in designer babies.
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他們大部分的人對訂製嬰兒
並不感到興趣。
07:38
They're studying human disease
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他們研究人類的疾病,
07:40
and other important elements of science.
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以及其它重要的科學議題。
07:43
So there's a lot of good research
going on with CRISPR.
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所以,已經有很多、很棒的
有關 CRISPR 技術方面的應用。
07:46
And the fact that we can
now do genetic modifications
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實際上,我們現在已經可以把
07:50
that used to take years
and cost millions of dollars
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過去要花好幾年、
好幾百萬的基改工程,
07:54
in a few weeks
for a couple thousand bucks,
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減少到只要花幾個禮拜、
幾千美金就能辦到,
07:57
to me as a scientist that's fantastic,
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對我這樣的科學家而言,
這真的太神奇了,
07:59
but again, at the same time,
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但,與此同時,
08:01
it opens the door to people going too far.
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這項技術也會讓人走火入魔。
08:05
And I think for some people
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我認為有些人,
08:06
the focus is not going to be
so much on science.
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並不會把焦點放在科學研究上,
08:09
That's not what's going
to be driving them.
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那些不是驅動他們的原因。
08:11
It's going to be ideology
or the chase for a profit.
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驅使他們的會是
意識形態或者想賺大錢。
08:15
And they're going to go
for designer babies.
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他們只對訂製嬰兒感興趣。
08:20
So why should we be concerned about this?
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那麼,我們為什麼要在意這件事情?
08:23
We know from Darwin,
if we go back two centuries,
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回到兩個世紀前,
從達爾文年代開始,
08:27
that evolution and genetics
profoundly have impacted humanity,
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我們就知道演化及基因學
深深地影響著人類,
08:31
who we are today.
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並造就出我們現在的世界。
08:33
And some think there's like
a social Darwinism at work in our world,
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有些人認為,我們的世界
似乎是由社會達爾文主義運作,
08:37
and maybe even a eugenics as well.
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甚至也許有優生學主義
在影響著這個世界。
08:40
Imagine those trends, those forces,
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想像一下這些趨勢、這股勢力
08:44
with a booster rocket
of this CRISPR technology
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加上了 CRISPR 這個
08:47
that is so powerful and so ubiquitous.
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無所不在、強大的技術會變成怎樣。
08:50
And in fact, we can just go back
one century to the last century
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實際上,我們只要回到上個世紀,
08:54
to see the power that eugenics can have.
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就能看到優生學帶來了甚麼影響。
08:58
So my father, Peter Knoepfler,
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我的父親,彼得納佛勒,
09:01
was actually born right here in Vienna.
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就出生在維也納。
09:03
He was Viennese,
and he was born here in 1929.
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他是維也納人,
1929 年在這出生的。
09:08
And when my grandparents
had little baby Peter,
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當我的爺爺有了我爸爸小彼得,
09:12
the world was very different. Right?
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世界又變了樣了,對吧?
09:14
It was a different Vienna.
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維也納變不一樣了。
09:15
The United States was different.
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美國也變不一樣了。
09:17
The world was different.
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世界變不一樣了。
09:18
There was a eugenics rising,
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當時優生學正在興起,
09:20
and my grandparents realized,
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我想我爺爺
09:22
pretty quickly I think,
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應該很快就明白,
09:24
that they were on the wrong side
of the eugenics equation.
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在優生學方面,他們選錯邊站了。
09:28
And so despite this being their home
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所以除了他們的家人,
09:31
and their whole extended family's home,
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還有整個親戚家族,
09:33
and this area being their family's
home for generations,
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都被優生學主義影響了好幾世代,
09:37
they decided because of eugenics
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因為優生學,
他們必須選擇離開家鄉。
09:40
that they had to leave.
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09:42
And they survived,
but they were heartbroken,
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他們存活下來了,但他們心也碎了,
09:44
and I'm not sure my dad
ever really got over leaving Vienna.
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我不確定我爸是不是
真的想離開維也納。
09:48
He left when he was just eight years old
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1938 年,他當時才 8 歲。
09:51
in 1938.
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09:54
So today, I see a new eugenics
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今日,我看到一個新的優生學
09:57
kind of bubbling to the surface.
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正浮出檯面。
09:59
It's supposed to be a kinder,
gentler, positive eugenics,
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它必須是個仁慈、
溫和正面的優生學,
10:04
different than all that past stuff.
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一個不同於以往的優生學。
10:08
But I think even though it's focused
on trying to improve people,
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但我認為即使我們把重點
擺在改進人類,
10:12
it could have negative consequences,
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很可能也會造成負面的結果,
10:15
and it really worries me
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我真的很擔心,
10:16
that some of the top proponents
of this new eugenics,
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有一些支持新優生學主義的
頂尖人士認為,
10:19
they think CRISPR is the ticket
to make it happen.
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CRISPR 技術就是他們發展
新優生學的入門票。
10:24
So I have to admit, you know,
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所以,我必須承認,各位知道,
10:25
eugenics, we talk
about making better people.
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我們談的優生學只是要讓人變好。
10:29
It's a tough question.
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這是個很難回答的問題,
10:30
What is better when we're talking
about a human being?
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一提到人類,
哪些才是對人類比較好的?
10:34
But I admit I think maybe a lot of us
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我承認,我們大部分的人
10:36
could agree that human beings,
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應該都會同意
10:39
maybe we could use a little betterment.
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我們可以做一些小改善。
10:41
Look at our politicians
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看一下我們的政治人物,
10:44
here, you know, back in the US --
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這邊的、美國的──
10:46
God forbid we go there right now.
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天啊就別提了。
10:49
Maybe even if we just look in the mirror,
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或許如果我們面對著鏡子裡的自己,
10:51
there might be ways
we think we could be better.
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我們都會希望有可以讓自己
更好看一點的方法。
10:54
I might wish, honestly, that I had
more hair here, instead of baldness.
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我可能會希望,老實說,
我會希望這邊頭髮多點,不要禿頭。
10:59
Some people might wish they were taller,
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有些人會希望可以再高一些,
11:01
have a different weight, a different face.
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有個適當的體重、不同的臉蛋。
11:05
If we could do those things,
we could make those things happen,
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如果我們要做這些事,
我們就一定能辦到,
11:09
or we could make them happen
in our children,
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或者讓我們的孩子擁有這些優點,
11:11
it would be very seductive.
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這樣真的會很吸引人。
11:13
And yet coming with it
would be these risks.
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2896
但這也伴隨了風險。
11:16
I talked about eugenics,
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我談論的優生學,
11:18
but there would be risks
to individuals as well.
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對個人而言可能也會造成風險。
11:21
So if we forget about enhancing people
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先不談改進人類的議題,
11:24
and we just try to make them
healthier using genetic modification,
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就只是嘗試著用基因改造
來讓人類更健康這件事,
11:28
this technology is so new
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這項技術這麼的新、
11:30
and so powerful,
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這麼的強而有力,
11:32
that by accident
we could make them sicker.
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一旦發生意外,
我們可能會更容易生病。
11:36
That easily could happen.
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這是很有可能會發生的。
11:38
And there's another risk,
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還有另外一個風險,
11:39
and that is that all of the legitimate,
important genetic modification research
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就是所有合法、重要的基改研究
11:44
going on just in the lab --
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只能在實驗室進行──
11:46
again, no interest in designer babies --
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我再強調一次,
他們對訂製嬰兒沒興趣──
11:49
a few people going
the designer baby route,
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少數人鑽進訂製嬰兒這條路,
11:51
things go badly,
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如果事情搞砸了,
11:53
that entire field could be damaged.
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整個產業可能會被摧毀掉。
11:57
I also think it's not that unlikely
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我也認為政府
11:59
that governments might start taking
an interest in genetic modification.
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不太可能不對基因改造有興趣。
12:04
So for example our imagined GM Jenna child
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比如,我們想像的基改小孩珍娜,
12:09
who is healthier,
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她是比較健康的,
12:10
if there's a generation that looks
like they have lower health care costs,
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如果可以降低一個世代的
醫療照顧成本,
12:14
it's possible that governments
may start trying to compel their citizens
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那政府很有可能會強制他們的市民
12:19
to go the GM route.
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走向基改這條路。
12:21
Look at China's one-child policy.
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看一下中國的一胎政策。
12:23
It's thought that that prevented
the birth of 400 million human beings.
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他們限制了將近四億人口的出生。
12:30
So it's not beyond the realm of possible
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所以極有可能
12:32
that genetic modification
could be something that governments push.
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基改工程是由政府來推動的。
12:37
And if designer babies become popular,
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一旦訂製嬰兒變成流行的代名詞,
12:40
in our digital age --
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在我們這個數位年代──
12:42
viral videos, social media --
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像病毒瘋傳的影片,社群媒體──
12:45
what if designer babies
are thought to be fashionable,
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要是訂製嬰兒被認為是
跟得上流行的腳步,
12:47
and they kind of become
the new glitterati,
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一旦他們變成了新世代的社會名流,
12:49
the new Kardashians or something?
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下一個卡戴珊之類的
12:51
(Laughter)
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1016
(笑聲)
12:52
You know, are those trends
that we really could control?
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這樣的趨勢我們真能掌控嗎?
12:57
I'm not convinced that we could.
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我不覺得我們有辦法掌控。
13:00
So again, today it's Halloween
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我再說一遍,
這件事現在看起來像萬聖節,
13:03
and when we talk
about genetic modification,
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而當我們在談論基因改造時,
13:06
there's one Halloween-associated character
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還有一個萬聖節相關的字眼,
13:09
that is talked about
or invoked more than anything else,
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而且常常被人提到的,
13:11
and that is Frankenstein.
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1840
就是「科學怪人」。
13:14
Mostly that's been Frankenfoods
and all this other stuff.
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像是基改食品這樣
被很多人懷疑的東西等等,
13:18
But if we think about this now
and we think about it in the human context
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但如果我們現在好好思考,
想像人類有這麼一天,
13:23
on a day like Halloween,
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比如像是萬聖節的情節,
13:24
if parents can in essence
costume their children genetically,
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5416
如果父母可以像訂製
萬聖節服裝一樣訂製小孩,
13:30
are we going to be talking about
a Frankenstein 2.0 kind of situation?
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我們現在談論的會不會就是
人類「科學怪人 2.0 版」的情節?
13:36
I don't think so. I don't think
it's going to get to that extreme.
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我想應該不至於會
走到那樣極端的地步。
13:39
But when we are going about
hacking the human code,
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但一旦我們準備開始
竄改人類的基因編碼,
13:43
I think all bets are off
in terms of what might come of that.
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進了賭場,就一番兩瞪眼了。
13:46
There would still be dangers.
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還是很危險的。
13:49
And we can look in the past
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我們可以回顧一下歷史,
13:50
to other elements
of transformative science
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仔細觀察科技變革所帶來的影響,
13:53
and see how they can
basically go out of control
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並看看它們是如何失去控制
13:57
and permeate society.
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並瀰漫到整個社會的。
13:59
So I'll just give you one example,
and that is in vitro fertilization.
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3800
我就給各位舉個例子,人工授精。
14:04
Almost exactly 40 years ago,
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3616
大約就在 40 年前,
14:07
test tube baby number one
Louise Brown was born,
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史上第一個試管嬰兒
路易斯布朗誕生了,
14:11
and that's a great thing,
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這是一件很偉大的事,
14:12
and I think since then
five million IVF babies have been born,
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我在想在那之後,
大約有 500 萬個試管嬰兒誕生,
14:18
bringing immeasurable happiness.
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帶來了無限的幸福,
14:20
A lot of parents now can love those kids.
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3136
讓很多雙親都可以享天倫之樂。
14:23
But if you think about it,
in four decades,
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但如果你仔細想想,
才 40 年的時間,
14:25
five million babies being born
from a new technology
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3896
新科技就為我們
帶來了 500 萬個寶寶,
14:29
is pretty remarkable,
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1816
真的很了不起,
14:31
and the same kind of thing could happen
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同樣的狀況也有可能
14:33
with human genetic modification
and designer babies.
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3576
在基改人類與訂製嬰兒上發生。
14:37
So depending on the decisions
we make in the next few months,
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3176
接下來幾個月或幾年的變化,
都取決於我們今日所做的決定,
14:40
the next year or so,
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14:41
if designer baby number one is born,
288
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3136
如果第一個訂製嬰兒出生,
14:44
within a few decades,
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只要幾十年的時間,
14:45
there could well be millions
of genetically modified humans.
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3656
可能就有上百萬的基改人類誕生。
14:49
And there's a difference there too,
because if we, you in the audience, or I,
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4456
但這有點差別,因為如果我們、
台下的你或者是我,
14:54
if we decide to have a designer baby,
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如果我們都決定要訂製嬰兒,
14:57
then their children will also
be genetically modified, and so on,
293
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4016
他們的後代也會被基因改造,
一代接一代,
15:01
because it's heritable.
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因為它會一直遺傳下去,
15:02
So that's a big difference.
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這就大不同了。
15:05
So with all of this in mind,
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所以仔細想想,
15:07
what should we do?
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我們該怎麼做?
15:09
There's actually going to be a meeting
298
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實際上,從明天開始,下一個月
15:11
a month from tomorrow in Washington, D.C.
299
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在華盛頓哥倫比亞特區有一場會議,
15:14
by the US National Academy of Sciences
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914700
1936
這場會議是由美國國家科學院舉辦,
15:16
to tackle that exact question.
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會議主旨就是要解決這些問題。
15:19
What is the right path forward
with human genetic modification?
302
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3680
人類的基因改造之路
應該怎麼走才是正確的?
15:23
I believe at this time
303
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我相信在這個節骨眼,
15:26
we need a moratorium.
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1456
我們需要再緩一緩。
15:27
We have to ban this.
305
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我們必須先禁止這個。
15:29
We should not allow
creating genetically modified people,
306
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3576
我們不應該允許基改人類的誕生,
15:32
because it's just too dangerous
and too unpredictable.
307
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3320
因為太危險、太無法預測了。
15:37
But there's a lot of people --
308
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1456
但,有很多人──
15:38
(Applause)
309
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1136
15:39
Thanks.
310
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(掌聲)
謝謝。
15:41
(Applause)
311
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3400
(掌聲)
15:47
And let me say, just as a scientist,
312
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2296
說真的,身為一位科學家,
15:50
it's a little bit scary
for me to say that in public,
313
950020
2496
我實在有點害怕
在大眾面前講出這件事,
15:52
because science generally doesn't like
self-regulation and things like that.
314
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5240
因為科學的發展普遍都不會
自我設限或自我規範之類的。
15:59
So I think we need to put a hold on this,
315
959060
3136
所以,我認為這件事,
我們還要再等等,
16:02
but there are many people
who not only disagree with me,
316
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2736
但很多人並不同意我的觀點,
16:04
they feel the exact opposite.
317
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他們完全是相反的。
16:06
They're like, step on the gas,
full speed ahead,
318
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3336
他們像是,馬力全開,全力衝刺,
16:09
let's make designer babies.
319
969860
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讓我們開始製造訂製嬰兒吧!
16:11
And so in the meeting in December
320
971500
2936
所以,12 月的會議,
16:14
and other meetings that are likely
to follow in the next few months,
321
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3456
以及接下來幾個月類似的會議,
16:17
it's very possible
there may be no moratorium.
322
977940
3136
很有可能我們
再也沒有機會可以延緩了。
16:21
And I think part
of the problem that we have
323
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3056
我認為這個問題的部分原因
16:24
is that all of this trend,
324
984180
2056
是這樣的趨勢,
16:26
this revolution in genetic modification
applying to humans,
325
986260
4096
在人體上做基因改造的變革,
16:30
the public hasn't known about it.
326
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社會大眾根本都不知道有這些事,
16:32
Nobody has been saying,
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沒有人站出來說,等等,
16:33
look, this is a big deal,
this is a revolution,
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這是很重大的決定,重大的變革,
16:37
and this could affect you
in very personal ways.
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而這會對每個人
造成不同程度的影響。
16:40
And so part of my goal
is actually to change that
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所以我其中的目標是希望
可以改變這件事,
16:43
and to educate and engage with the public
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並教育大眾、呼籲大眾
16:46
and get you guys talking about this.
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邀請所有人一起來討論這件事。
16:49
And so I hope at these meetings
that there will be a role for the public
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所以,我希望在這些會議中,
能有大眾參與的空間,
16:53
to bring their voice to bear as well.
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讓大眾的聲音也能被聽見。
16:57
So if we kind of circle back now
to 2030 again, that imagined story,
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讓我們回到 2030 年的故事場景,
17:03
and depending on the decisions
we make, again, today --
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由於我們所做的決定,
我再說一遍,今日──
17:06
literally we don't have a lot of time --
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基本上我們時間不多了──
17:08
in the next few months,
the next year or so,
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無論接下來幾個月、幾年,
17:10
because this technology
is spreading like wildfire.
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因為這項科技已經像
野火般地蔓延開來了。
17:13
Let's pretend we're back in that reality.
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讓我們假裝回到了那個真實的場景,
17:16
We're at a park,
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我們在公園裡,
17:18
and our kid is swinging on the swing.
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我們的孩子正在盪鞦韆。
17:22
Is that kid a regular old kid,
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我們的小孩會是正常的小孩?
17:25
or did we decide to have a designer baby?
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或者,我們決定
要一個訂製的小孩呢?
17:28
And let's say we went
the sort of traditional route,
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又或者,我們選擇了傳統的道路,
17:32
and there's our kid swinging on the swing,
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我們的孩子一樣在盪鞦韆,
17:34
and frankly, they're kind of a mess.
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坦白說,他們有點糟,
17:37
Their hair is all over
the place like mine.
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他們的頭髮跟我一樣多,
17:40
They have a stuffy nose.
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鼻子還留著鼻涕。
17:42
They're not the best student in the world.
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他們不是世上最好的學生。
17:45
They're adorable, you love them,
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但他們很可愛,你很愛他們,
17:47
but there on the swing next to them,
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但隔壁鞦韆上的孩子,
17:49
their best friend is a GM kid,
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他們最好的朋友
是一位基改過的孩子,
17:52
and the two of them
are kind of swinging like this,
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兩個都在盪鞦韆,
17:54
and you can't help
but compare them, right?
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你會忍不住比較,對吧?
17:56
And the GM kid is swinging higher,
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基改的小朋友盪得比較高,
17:59
they look better,
they're a better student,
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他們長得比較好看,功課又比他好,
18:01
they don't have that stuffy nose
you need to wipe.
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你不用擦鼻涕,
因為他們不會流鼻涕。
18:04
How is that going to make you feel
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你當下會有怎樣的感受?
18:06
and what decision
might you make next time?
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下個孩子,你會做出甚麼樣的決定?
18:10
Thank you.
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謝謝。
18:11
(Applause)
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(掌聲)
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