Dean Kamen: Rolling along, helping students and the third world

33,106 views ・ 2007-05-14

TED


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譯者: Marie Wu 審譯者: Adrienne Lin
00:25
As you pointed out, every time you come here, you learn something.
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正如你所說,每次來這裡都有一些收穫。
00:29
This morning, the world's experts
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今天早上,大概有三至四家
00:31
from I guess three or four different companies on building seats,
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世界級座椅製作公司的專家告訴我們,
00:35
I think concluded that ultimately, the solution is, people shouldn't sit down.
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人類不應該坐下,
00:40
I could have told them that.
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我早就知道了!
00:42
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
00:44
Yesterday, the automotive guys gave us some new insights.
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昨天那些車商提出一些新的見解,
00:50
They pointed out that, I believe it was between 30 and 50 years from today,
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他們說,在未來的30年到50年,
00:56
they will be steering cars by wire,
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人們的車子將會以電線驅動,
00:59
without all that mechanical stuff.
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不再需要那些機械了。
01:01
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
01:03
That's reassuring.
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這真讓我鬆了一口氣!
01:05
(Applause)
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(掌聲)
01:09
They then pointed out that there'd be, sort of, the other controls by wire,
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然後他們又說會有其他一組以電線操縱的裝置,
01:14
to get rid of all that mechanical stuff.
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來取代現有的機械零件。
01:16
That's pretty good, but why not get rid of the wires?
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那也很好,但為什麼不拿掉電線呢?
01:21
Then you don't need anything to control the car, except thinking about it.
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既然不用任何東西就能操縱車子,為什麼不用意志來操縱呢?
01:29
I would love to talk about the technology,
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我想談一下科技,
01:31
and sometime, in what's past the 15 minutes,
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大概會用去十五分鐘,
01:35
I'll be happy to talk to all the techno-geeks around here
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我想跟在座愛好科技的朋友談一下,
01:37
about what's in here.
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這裡面有什麼。
01:41
But if I had one thing to say about this, before we get to first,
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可是在開始之前,
01:45
it would be that from the time we started building this,
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我要先說,在我們開始打造這台車的時候,
01:51
the big idea wasn't the technology.
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重點並不在於技術本身,
01:53
It really was a big idea in technology when we started applying it
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重點在於我們想將iBOT這項技術
01:56
in the iBOT for the disabled community.
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應用到殘障朋友身上,
01:58
The big idea here is, I think, a new piece of a solution
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我們希望這項創新發明,
02:04
to a fairly big problem in transportation.
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能改善這項嚴重的交通問題。
02:08
And maybe to put that in perspective: there's so much data on this,
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長遠來看,有很多構面,
02:13
I'll be happy to give it to you in different forms.
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我很樂意從不同構面來解釋這件事情。
02:15
You never know what strikes the fancy of whom,
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不知道為了什麼,
02:18
but everybody is perfectly willing to believe the car changed the world.
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大家都相信汽車改變了世界。
02:23
And Henry Ford, just about 100 years ago, started cranking out Model Ts.
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大約在100年前,福特開始生產T型車,
02:27
What I don't think most people think about
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我認為大部分的人不會去想
02:29
is the context of how technology is applied.
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汽車裡面到底放了什麼了不起的科技。
02:33
For instance, in that time, 91 percent of America
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舉例來說,當時有91%的美國人
02:36
lived either on farms or in small towns.
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住在農村和小鎮,
02:39
So, the car --
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所以汽車
02:42
the horseless carriage that replaced the horse and carriage -- was a big deal;
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這種不需要馬拉的車輛,代替了馬車,那是很了不起的!
02:46
it went twice as fast as a horse and carriage.
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汽車的速度比馬車快上一倍,
02:48
It was half as long.
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車身又只有馬車的一半,
02:50
And it was an environmental improvement, because, for instance,
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還可以改善環境衛生,因為在1903年,
02:54
in 1903 they outlawed horses and buggies in downtown Manhattan,
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政府禁止市民在曼哈頓區內駕駛馬車,
02:59
because you can imagine what the roads look like
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想像一下那些馬路的模樣,
03:02
when you have a million horses,
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當路上有百萬匹馬在走,
03:05
and a million of them urinating and doing other things,
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隨時都在便溺或做些什麼其他的事,
03:09
and the typhoid and other problems created were almost unimaginable.
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那會引發傷寒,還有其他我們無法想像的問題。
03:15
So the car was the clean environmental alternative to a horse and buggy.
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所以與馬車相較,汽車是讓環境更衛生的交通工具。
03:19
It also was a way for people to get from their farm to a farm,
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汽車也可以讓人來往農莊之間、
03:23
or their farm to a town, or from a town to a city.
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讓人從農莊走進城鎮,
03:26
It all made sense, with 91 percent of the people living there.
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因為那時有91%的人住在農莊,所以這很合理。
03:31
By the 1950s, we started connecting all the towns together
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但自1950年代起,我們開始以被世人稱為
03:35
with what a lot of people claim is the eighth wonder of the world, the highway system.
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世界第八奇景的公路系統,將所有城鎮連接起來,
03:39
And it is certainly a wonder.
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形成另一奇景。
03:42
And by the way, as I take shots at old technologies,
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對了,在我談論舊式科技的時候,
03:46
I want to assure everybody, and particularly the automotive industry --
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我想向各位保證,尤其是對一向非常支持我們的
03:50
who's been very supportive of us --
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汽車業保證,
03:52
that I don't think this in any way competes with airplanes, or cars.
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我不認為這台車能與飛機或汽車競爭。
04:00
But think about where the world is today.
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但請想想目前世界的狀況,
04:04
50 percent of the global population now lives in cities.
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有一半人口住在城市裡,
04:07
That's 3.2 billion people.
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足足有32億人。
04:11
We've solved all the transportation problems
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所有交通問題都已被汽車和飛機解決,
04:13
that have changed the world to get it to where we are today.
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他們改變了世界,讓我們得以享有今日的一切。
04:16
500 years ago, sailing ships started getting reliable enough;
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500年前,發展成熟的造船技術
04:19
we found a new continent.
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讓我們發現新大陸;
04:21
150 years ago, locomotives got efficient enough, steam power,
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150年前,蒸汽火車發展得很好,
04:25
that we turned the continent into a country.
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讓我們把一片大陸變成一個國家;
04:28
Over the last hundred years, we started building cars,
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在過去的100年裡,我們開始製造汽車,
04:31
and then over the 50 years we've connected every city to every other city
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然後在後來的50年裡,以極有效率的方式,
04:34
in an extraordinarily efficient way,
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將所有城市連結起來,
04:36
and we have a very high standard of living as a consequence of that.
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也為我們帶來極高水準生活品質。
04:39
But during that entire process, more and more people have been born,
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但在這段時間裡,有大量的人口出生,
04:44
and more and more people are moving to cities.
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也有越來越多人搬進城市。
04:46
China alone is going to move four to six hundred million people
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在未來15年,單是中國就有
04:50
into cities in the next decade and a half.
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四至六億人會遷入城市。
04:54
And so, nobody, I think, would argue that airplanes, in the last 50 years,
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所以我認為,沒有人會否認在過去50年間,
05:00
have turned the continent and the country now into a neighborhood.
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飛機已把大陸和國家轉化為一個社區。
05:04
And if you just look at how technology has been applied,
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如果觀察科技運用的情形,
05:06
we've solved all the long-range, high-speed, high-volume,
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你會發現,無論距離、速度、數量、
05:10
large-weight problems of moving things around.
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重量,我們都能進行運輸,
05:13
Nobody would want to give them up.
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沒有人會想放棄這些技術。
05:15
And I certainly wouldn't want to give up my airplane,
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當然,我也捨不得我的飛機、
05:18
or my helicopter, or my Humvee, or my Porsche.
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直升機、悍馬或保時捷,
05:22
I love them all. I don't keep any of them in my living room.
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雖然我沒法把它們放在客廳裡,但我還是很喜歡它們。
05:25
The fact is, the last mile is the problem,
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問題是出在最後那一段路,
05:30
and half the world now lives in dense cities.
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因為有一半的人居住在城市裡。
05:33
And people spend, depending on who they are,
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雖然每一個人的狀況不同,但大多數的人
05:35
between 90 and 95 percent of their energy getting around on foot.
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會花90%至95%的體力徒步行走。
05:40
I think there's -- I don't know what data would impress you,
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我不知道哪種數據會讓你印象深刻,
05:43
but how about, 43 percent of the refined fuel produced in the world
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但美國市區的汽車就用掉了
05:49
is consumed by cars in metropolitan areas in the United States.
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全球43%的汽油;
05:55
Three million people die every year in cities due to bad air,
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每年有三百萬市民死於空氣污染;
06:00
and almost all particulate pollution on this planet
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而幾乎地球上所有的微粒污染
06:03
is produced by transportation devices, particularly sitting in cities.
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都是源於交通工具,尤其是市區裡的交通工具。
06:08
And again, I say that not to attack any industry,
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我再一次說明,我不是在抨擊任何產業,
06:12
I think -- I really do -- I love my airplane,
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我真的很喜歡我的飛機,
06:15
and cars on highways moving 60 miles an hour
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也喜歡在公路上以時速100公里奔馳的車子,
06:18
are extraordinarily efficient,
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他們的效率都非常好,
06:20
both from an engineering point of view,
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不管是從工程的角度、
06:23
an energy consumption point of view, and a utility point of view.
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能源消耗的角度,或從效用的角度上看都一樣。
06:26
And we all love our cars, and I do.
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我們都愛自己的車子,我也是。
06:29
The problem is, you get into the city and you want to go four blocks,
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問題是,當你在市區裡,想走過四個街區,
06:33
it's neither fun nor efficient nor productive.
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那既無聊又沒有效率,也沒有生產力,
06:36
It's not sustainable.
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更不可能持久。
06:38
If -- in China, in the year 1998, 417 million people used bicycles;
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1998年的中國,有四億一千七百萬人騎自行車,
06:44
1.7 million people used cars.
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170萬人開車。
06:48
If five percent of that population became, quote, middle class,
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如果當中有5%的人成為了所謂的中產階級,
06:52
and wanted to go the way we've gone in the last hundred years
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希望走上我們過去100年的發展路徑,
06:57
at the same time that 50 percent of their population are moving into cities
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同時當中有一半的人每隔六週
07:00
of the size and density of Manhattan, every six weeks --
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就會遷入面積和密度跟曼哈頓一樣城市,
07:04
it isn't sustainable environmentally;
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那麼整個環境會撐不住、
07:06
it isn't sustainable economically -- there just ain't enough oil --
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經濟也撐不住,因為汽油不夠;
07:10
and it's not sustainable politically.
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政治上也撐不住。
07:12
I mean, what are we fighting over right now?
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我想說的是,我們現在到底在爭什麼呢?
07:14
We can make it complicated, but what's the world fighting over right now?
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我們可以把問題變得再複雜一點,但大家到底在爭什麼呢?
07:18
So it seemed to me that somebody had to work on that last mile,
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對我來說,總有人要負責那最後一哩路,
07:25
and it was dumb luck. We were working on iBOTs,
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所以我們決定研發iBOT;
07:28
but once we made this, we instantly decided
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但當我們做出iBOT後,我們馬上發現
07:30
it could be a great alternative to jet skis. You don't need the water.
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iBOT就像是陸地上的水上摩托車,
07:34
Or snowmobiles. You don't need the snow.
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或是不用在雪地裡駕駛的雪車,
07:36
Or skiing. It's just fun, and people love to move around doing fun things.
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甚至像是純為好玩的滑雪工具,大家都喜歡跑來跑去做些有趣的事。
07:43
And every one of those industries, by the way --
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話說回來,在水上摩托車或雪車等行業中,
07:45
just golf carts alone is a multi-billion-dollar industry.
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只有高球車才是價值數十億元以上的行業。
07:48
But rather than go license this off, which is what we normally do,
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我們平常都會幫研發出來的東西申請執照,
07:51
it seemed to me that if we put all our effort not into the technology,
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但除此之外,我認為我們也不應該太強調這裡頭的科技,
07:55
but into an understanding of a world that's solved all its other problems,
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反而應該讓大眾瞭解我們解決了大部分人們的問題,
07:59
but has somehow come to accept that cities -- which,
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讓大家可以融入這個城市,
08:04
right back from ancient Greece on, were meant to walk around,
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就像古希臘人所創造的城市一樣,那是要讓人走入的城市,
08:07
cities that were architected and built for people --
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是為居民打造的城市,
08:10
now have a footprint that,
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我們讓人可以走入其間,
08:12
while we've solved every other transportation problem --
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我們讓現在交通工具改進的速度
08:14
and it's like Moore's law.
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就如摩爾定律一般。
08:16
I mean, look at the time it took to cross a continent in a Conestoga wagon,
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我是說,以前我們是以寬輪篷車穿越大陸,
08:21
then on a railroad, then an airplane.
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然後是火車,接下來是飛機,
08:24
Every other form of transportation's been improved.
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每一種交通工具都進步一點。
08:28
In 5,000 years, we've gone backwards in getting around cities.
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五千年來,我們慢慢聚集到城市裡,
08:32
They've gotten bigger; they're spread out.
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城市變得更大、更廣,
08:35
The most expensive real estate on this planet in every city --
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地球上最昂貴的房地產是在城市裡,
08:40
Wilshire Boulevard, or Fifth Avenue, or Tokyo, or Paris --
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無論是威爾夏大道、第五大道、東京還是巴黎,
08:44
the most expensive real estate is their downtowns.
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最貴的房地產就位於市中心。
08:47
65 percent of the landmass of our cities are parked cars.
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市區內有65%的土地是用來停車的,
08:51
The 20 largest cities in the world.
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全球二十大城市都是如此。
08:53
So you wonder, what if cities could give to their pedestrians
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你或許會想,如果城市裡的行人
08:58
what we take for granted as we now go between cities?
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也能像我們現在開車在城市裡自由行走,那該有多好?
09:02
What if you could make them fun, attractive, clean,
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如果我們可以讓城市變得更有趣、更吸引人、更整潔、
09:06
environmentally friendly?
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更環保,那該有多好?
09:10
What if it would make it a little bit more palatable
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如果我們能讓大眾更方便地到達
09:13
to have access via this, as that last link to mass transit,
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大眾運輸系統,或是更方便地從捷運下車
09:19
to get out to your cars so we can all live in the suburbs
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回到車上,那麼大家都可以住在郊外,
09:22
and use our cars the way we want,
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更有效率地使用我們的車輛,
09:24
and then have our cities energized again?
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讓我們的城市再次充滿活力,那該有多好?
09:29
We thought it would be really neat to do that,
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我們覺得能達到這些目標會很棒,
09:31
and one of the problems we really were worried about
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但真正困擾我們的是,
09:33
is: how do we get legal on the sidewalk?
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如何合法地在人行道上使用這台車,
09:36
Because technically I've got motors; I've got wheels -- I'm a motor vehicle.
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因為技術上來說,這台車有馬達和車輪,這是一輛機動車,
09:40
I don't look like a motor vehicle.
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但它根本不像是台機動車輛,
09:42
I have the same footprint as a pedestrian;
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它跟行人一樣會留下足跡,
09:44
I have the same unique capability
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它也同樣可以
09:48
to deal with other pedestrians in a crowded space.
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在擁擠的環境中前進。
09:50
I took this down to Ground Zero,
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我曾駕駛這台車去911之後的世貿大樓遺址,
09:52
and knocked my way through crowds for an hour.
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花了一個小時才從人群中擠出來,
09:55
I'm a pedestrian. But the law typically lags technology by a generation or two,
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我就是行人。但法律通常比科技落後一至兩代,
10:00
and if we get told we don't belong on the sidewalk, we have two choices.
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如果我們不能走人行道,我們還有兩個選擇,
10:06
We're a recreational vehicle that doesn't really matter,
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其一是成為微不足道的休閒車,
10:08
and I don't spend my time doing that kind of stuff.
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但我不會把時間花在這種事情上;
10:13
Or maybe we should be out in the street
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其二是我們應該行走在公路上,
10:15
in front of a Greyhound bus or a vehicle.
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就走在灰狗巴士或汽車的前面。
10:19
We've been so concerned about that,
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我們很擔心這個問題,
10:21
we went to the Postmaster General of the United States,
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所以我們去拜訪美國的郵政署長,
10:23
as the first person we ever showed on the outside,
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那是我們第一次對外發表這台車,
10:26
and said, "Put your people on it. Everybody trusts their postman.
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我們說:「讓郵差試試看吧,大家都信任郵差,
10:30
And they belong on the sidewalks, and they'll use it seriously."
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郵差本來就可以走在人行道上,他們會認真地看待這台車。」
10:35
He agreed. We went to a number of police departments
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他同意了。我們還去拜訪了好幾個警察局,
10:38
that want their police officers back in the neighborhood
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請他們讓員警駕駛這台車到社區巡邏,
10:40
on the beat, carrying 70 pounds of stuff. They love it.
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員警身上本來就有三十多公斤的配備,他們愛死這台車了,
10:44
And I can't believe a policeman is going to give themselves a ticket.
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我才不相信有哪個警察會給自己開罰單。
10:48
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
10:51
So we've been working really, really hard,
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所以我們真的下了很多、很多工夫,
10:53
but we knew that the technology would not be as hard to develop
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但我們知道開發這項科技並不是最難的,
10:56
as an attitude about what's important, and how to apply the technology.
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最難的是培養知所輕重的態度,以及運用科技的正確心態。
11:01
We went out and we found some visionary people
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我們找到了一些有夢想的投資者,
11:04
with enough money to let us design and build these things,
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他們提供了足夠的資金讓我們研發這東西,
11:09
and in hopefully enough time to get them accepted.
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大家都希望能儘快推出上市。
11:13
So, I'm happy, really, I am happy to talk about this technology as much as you want.
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我很高興,我真的很願意盡可能地與各位討論這項技術,
11:18
And yes, it's really fun, and yes, you should all go out and try it.
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這真的很有趣,你該出去試一試!
11:22
But if I could ask you to do one thing,
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我只拜託各位一件事,
11:24
it's not to think about it as a piece of technology,
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不要只把這台車當成是一種技術,
11:26
but just imagine that, although we all understand somehow
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我請各位想像一下,我們都知道
11:30
that it's reasonable that we use our 4,000-pound machine,
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重達約二噸的汽車是很好用的,
11:34
which can go 60 miles an hour,
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時速有100公里,
11:36
that can bring you everywhere you want to go,
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你可以開你的車子到任何地方去,
11:38
and somehow it's also what we used for the last mile,
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但就在快到達目的地時,
11:44
and it's broken, and it doesn't work.
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車子卻壞了,不能動了。
11:47
One of the more exciting things that occurred to us
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我們遇過最興奮的事情之一,
11:50
about why it might get accepted, happened out here in California.
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就是在加州這裡,那件事讓我們覺得一般人應該會接受這台車。
11:55
A few weeks ago, after we launched it,
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就在幾個星期前,那時我們剛剛才公開這台車,
11:57
we were here with a news crew on Venice Beach, zipping up and back,
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我們在威尼斯海灘與一位新聞採訪人員一起試乘這台車,
12:02
and he's marveling at the technology,
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他對這項技術讚歎不已,
12:04
and meanwhile bicycles are zipping by,
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這時候騎腳踏車的人也停了下來,
12:06
and skateboarders are zipping by,
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溜滑板的也靠了過來,
12:08
and a little old lady -- I mean, if you looked in the dictionary,
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還有一位矮小的老婦人,就是一個矮小的老婦人,
12:12
a little old lady -- came by me --
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也靠到我身邊,
12:15
and now that I'm on this, I'm the height of a normal adult now --
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當時我站在這上面,跟一般成年人一樣高,
12:19
and she just stops, and the camera is there, and she looks up at me
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她停了下來,鏡頭就在那邊,她抬頭看著我,
12:25
and says, "Can I try that?"
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說:「我可以試嗎?」
12:28
And what was I -- you know, how are you going to say anything?
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你覺得我可以說什麼嗎?
12:31
And so I said, "Sure."
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所以我說:「當然可以。」
12:33
So I get off, and she gets on, and with a little bit of the usual, ah,
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我從車上下來,她站上去,和平常人一樣東摸西摸,
12:39
then she turns around, and she goes about 20 feet,
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在附近繞了大約五、六公尺,
12:44
and she turns back around, and she's all smiles.
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又繞回來,臉上一直保持著微笑。
12:47
And she comes back to me and she stops, and she says,
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她回到我旁邊停下來說:
12:53
"Finally, they made something for us."
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「終於有專門為我們打造的東西了。」
12:57
And the camera is looking down at her.
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鏡頭往下對著她拍,
12:59
I'm thinking, "Wow, that was great --
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我心想:「哇,太好了!
13:01
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
13:02
-- please lady, don't say another word."
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拜託,不要再說別的了!」
13:04
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
13:07
And the camera is down at her,
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鏡頭仍然對著她拍,
13:09
and this guy has to put the microphone in her face,
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那位採訪員把麥克風對著她問:
13:11
said, "What do you mean by that?"
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「你這麼說是什麼意思?」
13:13
And I figured, "It's all over now,"
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我想著:「完蛋了!」
13:15
and she looks up and she says, "Well,"
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她抬起頭說:「嗯,」
13:19
she's still watching these guys go; she says, "I can't ride a bike," no,
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她還在看著附近的人來來去去,說:「我不會騎腳踏車」,不,
13:22
she says, "I can't use a skateboard, and I've never used roller blades,"
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她是說:「我不會溜滑板,也沒玩過溜冰鞋,」
13:26
she knew them by name;
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她還知道這些東西的名字哩...
13:28
she says, "And it's been 50 years since I rode a bicycle."
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她說:「我上次騎腳踏車已經是五十年前的事了。」
13:31
Then she looks up, she's looking up, and she says,
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然後她抬起頭,看著鏡頭說:
13:35
"And I'm 81 years old, and I don't drive a car anymore.
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「我今年81歲了,已經不能開車了,
13:39
I still have to get to the store, and I can't carry a lot of things."
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但我還是得去超級市場,只是不能帶太多東西。」
13:43
And it suddenly occurred to me, that among my many fears,
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我突然發覺,我最怕的
13:47
were not just that the bureaucracy and the regulators
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不是官僚體系、法令規範者、
13:50
and the legislators might not get it --
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或立法的人不能接受這台車,
13:53
it was that, fundamentally, you believe there's pressure among the people
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而是我相信人們會給我們壓力,
13:58
not to invade the most precious little bit of space left,
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要我們不得侵佔城市中僅剩的一點空間,
14:01
the sidewalks in these cities.
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也就是行人的人行道。
14:03
When you look at the 36 inches of legal requirement for sidewalk,
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法令規定人行道最少要有90公分寬,
14:07
then the eight foot for the parked car, then the three lanes,
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然後加上停一台車的寬度是2.5公尺,再加上三線車道,
14:10
and then the other eight feet -- it's --
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再過來是對向車道的停車位2.5公尺,
14:12
that little piece is all that's there.
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人行道就只有那麼一點空間。
14:16
But she looks up and says this,
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可是她對著鏡頭這麼說,
14:18
and it occurs to me, well, kids aren't going to mind these things,
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我突然覺得,嗯,孩子們不會介意,
14:20
and they don't vote, and business people and then young adults
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而且他們沒有投票權;商人和年輕的成人
14:24
aren't going to mind these things -- they're pretty cool --
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也不會介意,他們只在乎酷不酷;
14:26
so I guess subliminally I was worried
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因此潛意識裡,我所擔心的
14:28
that it's the older population that's going to worry.
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是老人家們會反對。
14:31
So, having seen this, and having worried about it for eight years,
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所以,在看到這個老婦人的反應後,在我擔心了八年之後,
14:36
the first thing I do is pick up my phone and ask our marketing and regulatory guys,
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我立刻撥電話給我們的行銷人員和法律顧問,
14:40
call AARP, get an appointment right away.
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要他們和AARP(美國退休人員協會)立刻安排時間會面,
14:43
We've got to show them this thing.
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我們得給他們看看這個東西。
14:45
And they took it to Washington; they showed them;
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然後他們把這台車帶到華盛頓,做了一番展示,
14:48
and they're going to be involved now,
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現在他們也想要參與這個計畫,
14:50
watching how these things get absorbed in a number of cities,
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他們想看看著這台車在幾個大城市的反應,
14:54
like Atlanta, where we're doing trials to see if it really can, in fact,
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像是亞特蘭大,我們目前正在當地進行試乘,
14:58
help re-energize their downtown.
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我們想看看是否能為市區注入新的活力。
15:01
(Applause)
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(掌聲)
15:08
The bottom line is, whether you believe the United Nations,
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最後,不管你相不相信聯合國,
15:13
or any of the other think tanks --
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也不管你相不相信其他智庫組織所說的,
15:15
in the next 20 years, all human population growth on this planet
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在未來的二十年內,人口的增長
15:19
will be in cities.
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將會集中於城市。
15:21
In Asia alone, it will be over a billion people.
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單是亞洲就會有超過十億人口居住在城市,
15:24
They learned to start with cell phones.
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這些新的城市居民一開始就會用手機,
15:28
They didn't have to take the 100-year trip we took.
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不用走回我們過去100年走過的老路,
15:31
They start at the top of the technology food chain.
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他們所使用的全是最尖端的科技產品。
15:34
We've got to start building cities and human environments
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我們要打造的城市或環境,
15:37
where a 150-pound person can go a couple of miles
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必須可以讓一個70公斤的人在密集、富庶、
15:40
in a dense, rich, green-space environment,
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綠化的環境中走上個幾公里路,
15:43
without being in a 4,000-pound machine to do it.
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而不需要倚賴重達2噸的汽車來載送。
15:47
Cars were not meant for parallel parking;
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汽車不是用來停的,
15:50
they're wonderful machines to go between cities, but just think about it:
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汽車是讓我們得以穿梭城市的美好工具,但請試著想一下:
15:54
we've solved all the long-range, high-speed problems.
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我們用汽車解決了遠距離和高速的問題。
15:59
The Greeks went from the theater of Dionysus to the Parthenon in their sandals.
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古希臘人穿著涼鞋從戴奧尼索斯劇場走到帕德嫩神廟,
16:04
You do it in your sneakers.
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你現在只不過換成運動鞋而已,
16:06
Not much has changed.
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沒什麼變化。
16:08
If this thing goes only three times as fast as walking -- three times --
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如果有東西能讓人提升行走速度三倍--三倍--
16:13
a 30-minute walk becomes 10 minutes.
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也就是把30分鐘的路程縮減為10分鐘,
16:15
Your choice, when living in a city, if it's now 10 minutes --
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如果你住在市區,而路程只有10分鐘,你會選擇什麼?
16:20
because at 30 minutes you want an alternative, whether it's a bus, a train --
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如果是30分鐘的路程,你可能會想搭公車或火車,
16:24
we've got to build an infrastructure -- a light rail --
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或者蓋個簡便的輕軌捷運,
16:26
or you're going to keep parking those cars.
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或者選擇開車去。
16:28
But if you could put a pin in most cities,
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如果你注意觀察大部分的城市,
16:31
and imagine how far you could, if you had the time, walk in one half-hour, it's the city.
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在你有空閒的時候,走上30分鐘,看看你能在城裡走多遠。
16:37
If you could make it fun, and make it eight or 10 minutes,
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如果路程可以變得更有趣,時間又可以縮到8至10分鐘,
16:39
you can't find your car, un-park your car, move your car,
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這點時間還不夠你找到車子、開車、到某個定點、
16:42
re-park your car and go somewhere;
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再把車子停好;
16:44
you can't get to a cab or a subway.
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這點時間也不適合搭計程車或捷運。
16:47
We could change the way people allocate their resources,
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我們可以改變分配資源的方法,
16:50
the way this planet uses its energy,
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改變世人消耗能源的方法,
16:53
make it more fun.
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讓它變得更有趣。
16:55
And we're hoping to some extent history will say we were right.
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同時我們希望,在某個程度上,未來歷史會證明我們是對的。
17:00
That's Segway. This is a Stirling cycle engine;
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那是賽格威,這是史特林引擎,
17:03
this had been confused by a lot of things we're doing.
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很多人搞不清楚我們在做什麼。
17:07
This little beast, right now, is producing a few hundred watts of electricity.
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這個小怪獸現在正在產出數百瓦的電力,
17:12
Yes, it could be attached to this,
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對,它能夠接在這個後面,
17:14
and yes, on a kilogram of propane,
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只需要用一公斤的丙烷,
17:17
you could drive from New York to Boston if you so choose.
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你願意的話,就可以從紐約走到波士頓。
17:22
Perhaps more interesting about this little engine is it'll burn any fuel,
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也許更有趣的地方是,這台小機器可以燃燒任何燃料,
17:26
because some of you might be skeptical
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你們之中可能有人會懷疑
17:28
about the capability of this to have an impact,
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這台車是否會對環境造成影響,
17:32
where most of the world you can't simply plug into your 120-volt outlet.
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因為除了美國之外,其他國家都不能插入120伏特的插座。
17:36
We've been working on this,
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我們現在正在想辦法解決這個問題,
17:38
actually, as an alternative energy source,
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想要為iBOT找到替代能源,
17:40
starting way back with Johnson & Johnson, to run an iBOT,
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我們開始和嬌生公司合作,
17:42
because the best batteries you could get --
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我們所能取得最好的電池是:
17:46
10 watt-hours per kilogram in lead,
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每公斤鉛10瓦小時,
17:48
20 watt-hours per kilogram nickel-cadmium,
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每公斤鎳鎘20瓦小時,
17:50
40 watt-hours per kilogram in nickel-metal hydride,
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每公斤鎳金屬氫化物40瓦小時,
17:52
60 watt-hours per kilogram in lithium,
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每公斤鋰60瓦小時,
17:55
8,750 watt-hours of energy in every kilogram of propane or gasoline --
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每公斤丙烷或汽油8千750瓦小時,
18:00
which is why nobody drives electric cars.
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這就是為什麼大家都不開電動車的原因。
18:02
But, in any event, if you can burn it with the same efficiency --
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如果有其他東西燃燒後可以產生相同效果--
18:08
because it's external combustion -- as your kitchen stove,
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因為它是外部燃燒--跟你家的爐灶一樣,
18:11
if you can burn any fuel, it turns out to be pretty neat.
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所以不管燃燒什麼燃料,都不會有污染。
18:14
It makes just enough electricity to, for instance, do this,
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它所產生的電力恰好可以發動這台車,
18:17
which at night is enough electricity, in the rest of the world,
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對世界上其他地方來說,也足夠支應晚上所需電力,
18:20
as Mr. Holly -- Dr. Holly -- pointed out,
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正如何利先生--何利博士所指出的,
18:23
can run computers and a light bulb.
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剛好足以啟動電腦和一盞燈泡。
18:26
But more interestingly, the thermodynamics of this say,
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更有趣的是,這方面的熱電學家說,
18:30
you're never going to get more than 20 percent efficiency.
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這個東西的效能,絕對不會超過20%,
18:33
It doesn't matter much -- it says if you get 200 watts of electricity,
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這樣也沒關係,也就是說如果產生了200瓦的電力,
18:36
you'll get 700 or 800 watts of heat.
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就會產生700到800瓦的熱能。
18:39
If you wanted to boil water and re-condense it at a rate of 10 gallons an hour,
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如果我們想要以每小時40公升的速度煮沸水,
18:44
it takes about 25, a little over 25.3 kilowatt --
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就需要大概25,或比25.3千瓦再多一點,
18:47
25,000 watts of continuous power -- to do it.
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大概要持續維持在二萬五千瓦的熱能才能辦到。
18:51
That's so much energy, you couldn't afford to desalinate
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這會耗去大量的能源,根本無法用此法淡化海水,
18:53
or clean water in this country that way.
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或以此法清潔水源。
18:55
Certainly, in the rest of the world, your choice is to devastate the place,
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當然,在世界上其他地方,這樣做無疑是摧毁當地資源,
18:59
turning everything that will burn into heat, or drink the water that's available.
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把所有可燃的物質都轉化為熱能,或把所有可喝的水都喝光。
19:04
The number one cause of death on this planet among humans is bad water.
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世界上首要的致命原因就是水質不良,
19:08
Depending on whose numbers you believe,
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端看你採信什麼數據,
19:10
it's between 60 and 85,000 people per day.
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實際上每天有六萬至八萬五千人因此死亡。
19:13
We don't need sophisticated heart transplants around the world.
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我們還不需要技術成熟的心臟移植手術,
19:16
We need water.
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我們需要水源。
19:18
And women shouldn't have to spend four hours a day looking for it,
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婦女們不該再每天花四個小時尋找水源,
19:21
or watching their kids die.
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或看著孩子們死去。
19:23
We figured out how to put a vapor-compression distiller on this thing,
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我們想出該怎麼樣把蒸汽壓縮蒸餾器放在這上面,
19:26
with a counter-flow heat exchanger to take the waste heat,
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再以反流式換熱器採集剩餘的熱能,
19:29
then using a little bit of the electricity control that process,
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然後只要用少量電力控制整個過程,
19:33
and for 450 watts, which is a little more than half of its waste heat,
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大約是450瓦,就是比剩餘熱能的一半再多一點,
19:39
it will make 10 gallons an hour of distilled water
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如此每小時就能造出十加侖蒸餾水,
19:41
from anything that comes into it to cool it.
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任何東西都能發揮冷卻的作用。
19:43
So if we put this box on here in a few years,
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所以,如果我們把這個盒子放在這裡,
19:46
could we have a solution to transportation, electricity,
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放個幾年看看,我們能否在這不到30公斤重的盒子裡,
19:52
and communication, and maybe drinkable water
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創造出能夠有效解決交通、電力、
19:56
in a sustainable package that weighs 60 pounds?
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通訊、甚或飲用水問題的方案?
20:00
I don't know, but we'll try it.
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我不知道,但我們會試試看。
20:02
I better shut up.
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我該住口了。
20:04
(Applause)
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(掌聲)
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