Adam Davidson: What we learned from teetering on the fiscal cliff

37,339 views ・ 2012-12-20

TED


請雙擊下方英文字幕播放視頻。

00:00
Translator: Morton Bast Reviewer: Thu-Huong Ha
0
0
7000
譯者: Chengrui Wang 審譯者: Jamie Wang
00:16
So a friend of mine who's a political scientist,
1
16769
2316
我有個朋友是政治學家
00:19
he told me several months ago
2
19085
1603
幾個月前 他告訴我
00:20
exactly what this month would be like.
3
20688
2068
這個月大概是什麼光景
00:22
He said, you know, there's this fiscal cliff coming,
4
22756
2914
他說:「財政懸崖快來了。」
00:25
it's going to come at the beginning of 2013.
5
25670
3606
估計在 2013 年初到來
00:29
Both parties absolutely need to resolve it,
6
29276
2760
兩黨都必須解決這問題
00:32
but neither party wants to be seen as the first to resolve it.
7
32036
2825
但沒有一方願意先採取行動
00:34
Neither party has any incentive to solve it a second before it's due,
8
34861
4217
也沒有一方想要在危機到來以前解決
00:39
so he said, December, you're just going to see lots of
9
39078
2620
所以他說,在十二月時你會看到一堆
00:41
angry negotiations, negotiations breaking apart,
10
41698
3220
激烈爭執、協商破局
00:44
reports of phone calls that aren't going well,
11
44918
2749
一些在電話上相談不歡的報導
00:47
people saying nothing's happening at all,
12
47667
2162
有人說什麼結果都沒有
00:49
and then sometime around Christmas or New Year's,
13
49829
2546
到了聖誕節或是新年的時候
00:52
we're going to hear, "Okay, they resolved everything."
14
52375
2608
我們會聽說:「他們解決所有問題了。」
00:54
He told me that a few months ago. He said he's 98 percent positive they're going to resolve it,
15
54983
4588
他幾個月前告訴我 他有98%的把握 他們會解決問題
00:59
and I got an email from him today saying, all right,
16
59571
2434
今天我收到他的電子郵件說
01:02
we're basically on track, but now I'm 80 percent positive
17
62005
3979
「好吧,大致上猜的沒錯 但現在我只有80%的把握
01:05
that they're going to resolve it.
18
65984
1676
他們會解決這件事情。」
01:07
And it made me think. I love studying
19
67660
2544
所以我開始思考,我喜歡研究
01:10
these moments in American history
20
70204
1993
美國歷史上這種分歧的時期
01:12
when there was this frenzy of partisan anger,
21
72197
3900
不同黨派彼此爭論不休
01:16
that the economy was on the verge of total collapse.
22
76097
3141
經濟正值崩盤的邊緣
01:19
The most famous early battle was Alexander Hamilton
23
79238
4240
早期最有名的爭論是 亞歷山大•漢彌爾頓
01:23
and Thomas Jefferson over what the dollar would be
24
83478
3561
和湯瑪斯•傑弗遜對於美元會如何
01:27
and how it would be backed up, with Alexander Hamilton
25
87039
2321
以及 該用什麼方式儲存而爭論
01:29
saying, "We need a central bank, the First Bank of the United States,
26
89360
3244
亞歷山大•漢彌爾頓說 「我們需要一個中央銀行,美國第一銀行
01:32
or else the dollar will have no value.
27
92604
1799
不然美元就毫無價值了」
01:34
This economy won't work,"
28
94403
1625
湯瑪斯•傑弗遜則說
01:36
and Thomas Jefferson saying, "The people won't trust that.
29
96028
2409
「這經濟體系行不通,人民不信這一套」
01:38
They just fought off a king. They're not going to accept some central authority."
30
98437
3788
「他們才剛推翻一個王朝 才不會接受一個中央集權組織。」
01:42
This battle defined the first 150 years of the U.S. economy,
31
102225
5522
這個爭論奠定了美國前期 一百五十年的經濟
01:47
and at every moment, different partisans saying,
32
107747
3650
每一次,當不同黨派說
01:51
"Oh my God, the economy's about to collapse,"
33
111397
2188
「老天,經濟要崩盤了。」
01:53
and the rest of us just going about, spending our bucks
34
113585
2149
有些人就開始盡情揮霍
01:55
on whatever it is we wanted to buy.
35
115734
3224
把錢花在所有想買的東西上
01:58
To give you a quick primer on where we are,
36
118958
2733
先來了解一下我們現在的處境
02:01
a quick refresher on where we are.
37
121691
1779
快速地回顧一下
02:03
So the fiscal cliff, I was told
38
123470
2564
有人叫我別叫它財政懸崖
02:06
that that's too partisan a thing to say,
39
126034
2466
因為黨派色彩太重
02:08
although I can't remember which party it's supporting or attacking.
40
128500
3422
我記不得 到底誰贊成誰反對
02:11
People say we should call it the fiscal slope,
41
131922
2361
有人說 應該叫財政斜坡才對
02:14
or we should call it an austerity crisis,
42
134283
2046
或稱為緊縮危機
02:16
but then other people say, no, that's even more partisan.
43
136329
2386
但就有人反對 說這樣反而更不中立
02:18
So I just call it the self-imposed, self-destructive
44
138715
2777
所以我乾脆叫它設立自我導致 自我毀滅
02:21
arbitrary deadline about resolving an inevitable problem.
45
141492
4697
沒有明確期限的方案 來解決不可避免的問題
02:26
And this is what the inevitable problem looks like.
46
146189
3627
這就是一個不可避免的問題的真實模樣
02:29
So this is a projection of U.S. debt as a percentage
47
149816
4358
這是美國國債百分比圖
02:34
of our overall economy, of GDP.
48
154174
2362
佔整體經濟 國內生產毛額(GDP)的比例高低
02:36
The light blue dotted line represents
49
156536
3368
藍色虛線代表
02:39
the Congressional Budget Office's best guess
50
159904
2129
國會預算局最樂觀的估計
02:42
of what will happen if Congress really doesn't do anything,
51
162033
4075
如果國會什麼都沒做的情形
02:46
and as you can see, sometime around 2027,
52
166108
3516
可以看到 大概在2027年
02:49
we reach Greek levels of debt,
53
169624
2288
我們的債務會跟希臘有得拚
02:51
somewhere around 130 percent of GDP,
54
171912
2888
債務約佔GDP的130%
02:54
which tells you that some time in the next 20 years,
55
174800
3360
顯示出未來20年內
02:58
if Congress does absolutely nothing,
56
178160
2370
如果國會什麼事都沒做
03:00
we're going to hit a moment where the world's investors,
57
180530
3674
我們在國際上的地位會動搖
03:04
the world's bond buyers, are going to say,
58
184204
1601
全球的投資人 債券買家 將會說
03:05
"We don't trust America anymore. We're not going to lend them any money,
59
185805
2790
「我們再也不信任美國人了 也不會借他們錢」
03:08
except at really high interest rates."
60
188595
2039
「除非利率真的夠高」
03:10
And at that moment our economy collapses.
61
190634
2866
到時我們的經濟就崩盤了
03:13
But remember, Greece is there today.
62
193500
1849
但記得 這是希臘現在的狀況
03:15
We're there in 20 years. We have lots and lots of time
63
195349
3902
我們要過20年才會到那 我們有十分充裕的時間
03:19
to avoid that crisis,
64
199251
2221
來避免危機
03:21
and the fiscal cliff was just one more attempt
65
201472
3695
而財政懸崖 再次
03:25
at trying to force the two sides to resolve the crisis.
66
205167
3537
逼迫兩黨一起解決危機
03:28
Here's another way to look at exactly the same problem.
67
208704
3408
其實可以換個角度來看同樣的問題
03:32
The dark blue line is how much the government spends.
68
212112
2944
藍色實線是政府的開銷
03:35
The light blue line is how much the government gets in.
69
215056
3457
淺藍色線是政府收入
03:38
And as you can see, for most of recent history,
70
218513
2760
由此可見 近幾年來
03:41
except for a brief period, we have consistently spent
71
221273
3632
除了短暫的時期 我們一直
03:44
more than we take in. Thus the national debt.
72
224905
3200
入不敷出 所以國債才會這麼高
03:48
But as you can also see, projected going forward,
73
228105
3879
但可以看出 隨著時間的增長
03:51
the gap widens a bit and raises a bit,
74
231984
3016
收支的落差也越來越大
03:55
and this graph is only through 2021.
75
235000
2049
這張圖只統計到2021年
03:57
It gets really, really ugly out towards 2030.
76
237049
3663
到了2030年 數據會變得很難看
04:00
And this graph sort of sums up what the problem is.
77
240712
4125
從圖表中可以總結出問題所在
04:04
The Democrats, they say, well, this isn't a big deal.
78
244837
3089
民主黨認為 這沒啥大不了
04:07
We can just raise taxes a bit and close that gap,
79
247926
4118
只要稍微提高稅率 縮短收支差就好
04:12
especially if we raise taxes on the rich.
80
252044
2256
提高有錢人的賦稅尤其有效
04:14
The Republicans say, hey, no, no, we've got a better idea.
81
254300
2623
共和黨則說:「不 我們有更好的方法」
04:16
Why don't we lower both lines?
82
256923
1439
「為何不要讓兩種數據都降低?」
04:18
Why don't we lower government spending and lower government taxes,
83
258362
3955
「何不降低政府支出和賦稅?」
04:22
and then we'll be on an even more favorable
84
262317
3449
如此一來 就有更完善的
04:25
long-term deficit trajectory?
85
265766
2479
長期赤字規劃
04:28
And behind this powerful disagreement between
86
268245
4579
而在彼此爭論不休
04:32
how to close that gap,
87
272824
1780
該如何縮小收支差距的背後
04:34
there's the worst kind of cynical party politics,
88
274604
3385
有種最糟 最憤世嫉俗的政黨政治
04:37
the worst kind of insider baseball, lobbying, all of that stuff,
89
277989
5373
最醜陋的內幕 遊說政治 等黑暗面
04:43
but there's also this powerfully interesting,
90
283362
4261
但這場爭論也有非常有趣
04:47
respectful disagreement between
91
287623
2433
正大光明的一面
04:50
two fundamentally different economic philosophies.
92
290056
3527
因為這包含兩種截然不同 的經濟理念
04:53
And I like to think, when I picture how Republicans
93
293583
4823
而我希望 在我描繪出共和黨
04:58
see the economy, what I picture is just some amazingly
94
298406
5131
對經濟的看法時 所描出的只是
05:03
well-engineered machine, some perfect machine.
95
303537
3311
一台構造完整的機器 一台傑作
05:06
Unfortunately, I picture it made in Germany or Japan,
96
306848
4478
不幸的是 這是德國或曰本製
05:11
but this amazing machine that's constantly scouring
97
311326
2853
但這完美的機器不斷地侵蝕
05:14
every bit of human endeavor and taking resources,
98
314179
5096
人類的每分努力並拿走資源
05:19
money, labor, capital, machinery,
99
319275
2349
錢財 勞工 資本和機械等
05:21
away from the least productive parts and towards the more productive parts,
100
321624
4250
把它們從最沒生產力的部份 移到生產力最高的地方
05:25
and while this might cause temporary dislocation,
101
325874
1596
雖然會造成短暫的混亂
05:27
what it does is it builds up the more productive areas
102
327470
3494
卻能增強生產力較高的區塊
05:30
and lets the less productive areas fade away and die,
103
330964
2630
讓低生產力的區塊 慢慢地淘汰
05:33
and as a result the whole system is so much more efficient,
104
333594
2776
如此一來 整個系統就更有效率
05:36
so much richer for everybody.
105
336370
2338
所以大家就更富有了
05:38
And this view generally believes that there is a role for government,
106
338708
3913
此觀點也認為政府佔有一席之地
05:42
a small role, to set the rules so people aren't lying
107
342621
2820
一個訂定規則的小角色 以免人們
05:45
and cheating and hurting each other,
108
345441
2249
說謊 欺騙及傷害彼此
05:47
maybe, you know, have a police force and a fire department
109
347690
3304
政府機關像是警察 消防隊
05:50
and an army, but to have a very limited reach
110
350994
3000
或軍隊等 但這些機關影響很有限
05:53
into the mechanisms of this machinery.
111
353994
3000
難以深入此機器內部
05:56
And when I picture how Democrats and Democratic-leaning
112
356994
4176
而當我描繪民主黨或偏民主黨
06:01
economists picture this economy,
113
361170
2968
經濟學家對此種經濟的看法時
06:04
most Democratic economists are, you know, they're capitalists,
114
364138
2556
大部份的民主黨派經濟學家是資本主義者
06:06
they believe, yes, that's a good system a lot of the time.
115
366694
2740
他們深信:「對 以目前情況來說 這是理想的體制」
06:09
It's good to let markets move resources to their more productive use.
116
369434
4120
讓市場自動把資源做有效的利用是很好
06:13
But that system has tons of problems.
117
373554
3916
但這體制有一大堆的問題
06:17
Wealth piles up in the wrong places.
118
377470
2329
財富都聚集在不對的地方
06:19
Wealth is ripped away from people who shouldn't be called unproductive.
119
379799
4274
那些被不當稱為沒有生產力的人們被剝奪了財富
06:24
That's not going to create an equitable, fair society.
120
384073
2868
這樣沒法創造一個合理公平的社會
06:26
That machine doesn't care about the environment,
121
386941
2872
這種運作模式沒考慮到周遭環境
06:29
about racism, about all these issues
122
389813
2066
例如種族歧視等負面議題
06:31
that make this life worse for all of us,
123
391879
2798
這些讓我們的生活更糟的問題
06:34
and so the government does have a role to take resources
124
394677
3079
所以政府有義務從
06:37
from more productive uses, or from richer sources,
125
397756
3281
較高生產力或擁有較多資源的地方
06:41
and give them to other sources.
126
401037
2668
將其資源分配給其它地方
06:43
And when you think about the economy through these two different lenses,
127
403705
5055
如果你用這兩種不同的觀點 來探討經濟的話
06:48
you understand why this crisis is so hard to solve,
128
408760
4058
你就懂為何危機這麼難解決
06:52
because the worse the crisis gets, the higher the stakes are,
129
412818
3989
因為情況如果越嚴重 風險就越高
06:56
the more each side thinks they know the answer
130
416807
2768
兩方都認為自己有解決之道
06:59
and the other side is just going to ruin everything.
131
419575
3353
並對彼此嗤之以鼻
07:02
And I can get really despairing. I've spent a lot
132
422928
3135
我感到絕望
07:06
of the last few years really depressed about this,
133
426063
3063
過去幾年 我對此感到沮喪
07:09
until this year, I learned something that
134
429126
3049
直到今年 我發現了一些使我非常興奮的事
07:12
I felt really excited about. I feel like it's really good news,
135
432175
3480
我認為這是很好的消息
07:15
and it's so shocking, I don't like saying it, because I think
136
435655
2861
而且非常震撼 我不常談論它
07:18
people won't believe me.
137
438516
1505
因為我覺得沒人會相信我的話
07:20
But here's what I learned.
138
440021
1318
我所發現的是
07:21
The American people, taken as a whole,
139
441339
2420
整體來說 當美國人
07:23
when it comes to these issues, to fiscal issues,
140
443759
3200
遇到跟財政有關的問題時
07:26
are moderate, pragmatic centrists.
141
446959
3723
就變成溫和 務實的中立派
07:30
And I know that's hard to believe, that the American people
142
450682
2265
沒錯 很不可思議 美國人
07:32
are moderate, pragmatic centrists.
143
452947
1433
竟會是溫和 務實的中立派
07:34
But let me explain what I'm thinking.
144
454380
2581
但讓我解釋一下我的看法
07:36
When you look at how the federal government spends money,
145
456961
3297
當你看看聯邦政府的支出比例
07:40
so this is the battle right here,
146
460258
2574
這裡是問題所在
07:42
55 percent, more than half, is on Social Security,
147
462832
2693
55% 超過一半用在社會福利
07:45
Medicare, Medicaid, a few other health programs,
148
465525
2368
醫療保險 醫療補助 及其他的健保
07:47
20 percent defense, 19 percent discretionary,
149
467893
3019
20%國防 19%自由支配支出
07:50
and six percent interest.
150
470912
1906
利息則是6%
07:52
So when we're talking about cutting government spending,
151
472818
4718
所以我們在討論如何 減少政府支出時
07:57
this is the pie we're talking about,
152
477536
2006
就是看這統計圖
07:59
and Americans overwhelmingly, and it doesn't matter
153
479542
3587
絕大多數的美國人 無論
08:03
what party they're in, overwhelmingly like
154
483129
3533
支持哪一黨 大都喜歡
08:06
that big 55 percent chunk.
155
486662
2439
55%這一塊
08:09
They like Social Security. They like Medicare.
156
489101
1992
他們喜歡社會福利 醫療健保
08:11
They even like Medicaid, even though that goes to the poor and indigent,
157
491093
3528
甚至喜歡醫療補助 (低收入戶用) 即使這些支出只補助貧困的人
08:14
which you might think would have less support.
158
494621
2424
你本來可能以為 醫療補助的支持度較低
08:17
And they do not want it fundamentally touched,
159
497045
3951
他們都不希望以上支出比例變動
08:20
although the American people are remarkably comfortable,
160
500996
4191
雖然美國人民對此非常滿意
08:25
and Democrats roughly equal to Republicans,
161
505187
2912
兩黨選民基本上意見一致
08:28
with some minor tweaks to make the system more stable.
162
508099
4765
只要稍做調整 系統會更穩定
08:32
Social Security is fairly easy to fix.
163
512864
2761
社會福利很好調整
08:35
The rumors of its demise are always greatly exaggerated.
164
515625
3784
社會福利會倒的謠言 往往都是誇大的說法
08:39
So gradually raise Social Security retirement age,
165
519409
2294
所以對於把逐漸提高退休福利年齡的政策
08:41
maybe only on people not yet born.
166
521703
2373
加諸到未出世的下一代人的這個方法
08:44
Americans are about 50/50,
167
524076
2425
不管是支持民主黨還是共和黨
08:46
whether they're Democrats or Republicans.
168
526501
1996
贊成和反對人數都差不多
08:48
Reduce Medicare for very wealthy seniors,
169
528497
2352
減少高收入老人健保支出
08:50
seniors who make a lot of money. Don't even eliminate it. Just reduce it.
170
530849
3321
就是給老富翁的福利金 根本不用廢除 減少即可
08:54
People generally are comfortable with it, Democrats and Republicans.
171
534170
5015
人們大都接受這個政策 不管哪一黨的都如此認為
08:59
Raise medical health care contributions?
172
539185
2307
提高健保費呢?
09:01
Everyone hates that equally, but Republicans
173
541492
2429
大家都恨死了此方法 可是共和黨
09:03
and Democrats hate that together.
174
543921
2672
和民主黨支持者都一致反對
09:06
And so what this tells me is, when you look at
175
546593
3114
所以這個事實告訴我
09:09
the discussion of how to resolve our fiscal problems,
176
549707
3830
當我們仔細探討 如何解決財政問題
09:13
we are not a nation that's powerfully divided on the major, major issue.
177
553537
7385
我們的國民在主要議題方面並沒有意見分歧
09:20
We're comfortable with it needing some tweaks, but we want to keep it.
178
560922
3281
做點改變的話我們能接受 但卻不想廢除整個系統
09:24
We're not open to a discussion of eliminating it.
179
564203
2795
不太可能去討論是否要廢除整個系統
09:26
Now there is one issue that is hyper-partisan,
180
566998
4286
針對一個議題 政黨的意見分歧非常嚴重
09:31
and where there is one party that is just spend, spend, spend,
181
571284
3482
有一黨說花錢消災就好
09:34
we don't care, spend some more,
182
574766
1883
多花點錢無傷大雅
09:36
and that of course is Republicans
183
576649
1906
這當然是共和黨對於
09:38
when it comes to military defense spending.
184
578555
1980
減少國防預算的看法
09:40
They way outweigh Democrats.
185
580535
2495
他們的反對聲浪就比民主黨還強勢
09:43
The vast majority want to protect military defense spending.
186
583030
4795
多數共和黨支持者贊成不改變國防支出
09:47
That's 20 percent of the budget,
187
587825
2221
國防支出佔了國家預算的20%
09:50
and that presents a more difficult issue.
188
590046
3683
而它代表一個更複雜的議題
09:53
I should also note that the [discretionary] spending,
189
593729
2925
我也要提一下自由性支出的部份
09:56
which is about 19 percent of the budget,
190
596654
2134
佔了預算的19%
09:58
that is Democratic and Republican issues,
191
598788
2370
這是兩黨共同的議題
10:01
so you do have welfare, food stamps, other programs
192
601158
2368
福利 食物券等種種福利制度
10:03
that tend to be popular among Democrats,
193
603526
2034
在民主黨眼裡較受重視
10:05
but you also have the farm bill and all sorts of Department of Interior
194
605560
2965
但農田法案等以及 內政部的福利制度
10:08
inducements for oil drilling and other things,
195
608525
2945
例如石油鑽探之類的
10:11
which tend to be popular among Republicans.
196
611470
3615
就比較受共和黨青睞
10:15
Now when it comes to taxes, there is more disagreement.
197
615085
3324
至於納稅方面 分歧就比較嚴重
10:18
That's a more partisan area.
198
618409
1864
這方面黨派色彩比較嚴重
10:20
You have Democrats overwhelmingly supportive
199
620273
3394
民主黨民眾大力支持
10:23
of raising the income tax on people who make 250,000 dollars a year,
200
623667
4049
提高年收入25萬元以上 高收入族群的所得稅
10:27
Republicans sort of against it, although if you break it out by income,
201
627716
5240
共和黨支持者基本上是反對的 但如果用收入分開來看的話
10:32
Republicans who make less than 75,000 dollars a year like this idea.
202
632956
4693
年收入在7萬5以下的支持者 還滿喜歡這提議的
10:37
So basically Republicans who make more than 250,000 dollars a year don't want to be taxed.
203
637649
4355
也就是說 年收入高於25萬的 共和黨民眾不想多繳稅
10:42
Raising taxes on investment income, you also see
204
642004
3256
提高投資所得稅 你也看得出
10:45
about two thirds of Democrats but only one third of Republicans
205
645260
2864
贊成的人數 民主黨大約2/3 共和黨只有1/3
10:48
are comfortable with that idea.
206
648124
3799
接受這個主意
10:51
This brings up a really important point, which is that
207
651923
3025
這反映出非常重要的迷思 就是
10:54
we tend in this country to talk about Democrats
208
654948
2616
在美國 我們往往只討論民主黨和共和黨
10:57
and Republicans and think there's this little group
209
657564
1811
剩下有一小部分的人
10:59
over there called independents that's, what, two percent?
210
659375
2365
也就是獨立派所組成 獨立派大概只有2%吧
11:01
If you add Democrats, you add Republicans,
211
661740
2112
只要你把共和黨與民主黨支持者加起來
11:03
you've got the American people.
212
663852
1494
就等於全美國人民了
11:05
But that is not the case at all.
213
665346
2946
但事實並非如此
11:08
And it has not been the case for most of modern American history.
214
668292
5145
美國近代歷史裡也沒這樣的情況
11:13
Roughly a third of Americans say that they are Democrats.
215
673437
3817
大約有1/3的美國人說 他們支持民主黨
11:17
Around a quarter say that they are Republicans.
216
677254
2849
大概1/4的人則說他們是共和黨的
11:20
A tiny little sliver call themselves libertarians, or socialists,
217
680103
4480
另有一小區塊的人則傾向 是自由或社會主義黨
11:24
or some other small third party,
218
684583
2687
或是支持其他小黨派
11:27
and the largest block, 40 percent, say they're independents.
219
687270
5207
而最大的區塊占了40% 這裡的人 認為自己是獨立派
11:32
So most Americans are not partisan,
220
692477
2921
所以大多美國人都不特別支持哪一黨
11:35
and most of the people in the independent camp
221
695398
2168
大多屬於獨立陣營的人
11:37
fall somewhere in between, so even though we have
222
697566
3691
都沒有偏向某一黨 即使我們
11:41
tremendous overlap between the views on these fiscal issues
223
701257
3560
在這些財政議題上 從支持民主及共和黨的民眾來看
11:44
of Democrats and Republicans,
224
704817
2296
大家有很多一致的想法
11:47
we have even more overlap when you add in the independents.
225
707113
3792
一旦你把獨立派的人加進來 就會有更多共同的想法
11:50
Now we get to fight about all sorts of other issues.
226
710905
3240
我們常常為其他問題起爭執
11:54
We get to hate each other on gun control
227
714145
2113
我們因為槍枝管制 而厭惡彼此
11:56
and abortion and the environment,
228
716258
2280
墮胎還有環境議題也是
11:58
but on these fiscal issues, these important fiscal issues,
229
718538
2872
但講到財政問題時 重要的財政議題
12:01
we just are not anywhere nearly as divided as people say.
230
721410
3832
我們並沒有像其他人說的那樣 彼此意見不合
12:05
And in fact, there's this other group of people
231
725242
2032
事實上 有另外一群人
12:07
who are not as divided as people might think,
232
727274
3338
並沒有我們想像中 內部分裂的那麼嚴重
12:10
and that group is economists.
233
730612
2013
那群人就是經濟學家
12:12
I talk to a lot of economists, and back in the '70s
234
732625
5303
我跟很多經濟學家談過 在70年代
12:17
and '80s it was ugly being an economist.
235
737928
3098
到80年代時 當經濟學家非常不好過
12:21
You were in what they called the saltwater camp,
236
741026
3175
當時你會被貼上一個「鹹水學派」的標籤
12:24
meaning Harvard, Princeton, MIT, Stanford, Berkeley,
237
744201
4614
指的是哈佛 普林斯頓 麻省 史丹佛 柏克萊等學派
12:28
or you were in the freshwater camp, University of Chicago,
238
748815
2968
或者你被標為「淡水學派」 例如芝加哥大學
12:31
University of Rochester.
239
751783
1452
羅徹斯特大學等派
12:33
You were a free market capitalist economist
240
753235
2996
你可能是個支持市場資本主義的經濟學家
12:36
or you were a Keynesian liberal economist,
241
756231
2133
或是支持凱恩斯自由派主義的經濟學家
12:38
and these people didn't go to each other's weddings,
242
758364
2175
這些人仇視到不去對方的婚禮
12:40
they snubbed each other at conferences.
243
760539
1892
在會議上也互不理睬
12:42
It's still ugly to this day, but in my experience,
244
762431
3009
現在還有這種醜陋面 但就我的經驗
12:45
it is really, really hard to find an economist under 40
245
765440
3601
真的 真的很難找到一個 不到40歲的經濟學家
12:49
who still has that kind of way of seeing the world.
246
769041
4024
有這種過時的世界觀
12:53
The vast majority of economists -- it is so uncool
247
773065
2952
大多的經濟學家 如果稱自己是
12:56
to call yourself an ideologue of either camp.
248
776017
2841
某學派的擁護者 就遜掉了
12:58
The phrase that you want, if you're a graduate student
249
778858
2521
什麼樣的稱謂才是你想要的 如果你是研究生
13:01
or a postdoc or you're a professor,
250
781379
2527
博士 或是教授
13:03
a 38-year-old economics professor, is, "I'm an empiricist.
251
783906
2977
一個38歲的經濟學教授會說: 「我是經驗主義者」
13:06
I go by the data."
252
786883
1544
「我只相信數據資料。」
13:08
And the data is very clear.
253
788427
2404
而數據顯示非常清楚
13:10
None of these major theories have been completely successful.
254
790831
4021
沒有任何的理論真正成功過
13:14
The 20th century, the last hundred years,
255
794852
1648
20世紀或過去一百年來
13:16
is riddled with disastrous examples
256
796500
2951
有數不清的慘痛案例
13:19
of times that one school or the other tried to explain
257
799451
3672
過去有學派或其他人試圖分析
13:23
the past or predict the future
258
803123
2320
過去或預估未來經濟
13:25
and just did an awful, awful job,
259
805443
1886
結果慘不忍睹
13:27
so the economics profession has acquired some degree of modesty.
260
807329
5189
所以經濟學界變得比較謙虛了
13:32
They still are an awfully arrogant group of people, I will assure you,
261
812518
3594
我敢保證 他們的人還是 臭屁到不行
13:36
but they're now arrogant about their impartiality,
262
816112
2877
但現在令他們自豪的是公正的態度
13:38
and they, too, see a tremendous range of potential outcomes.
263
818989
6791
而他們也看到未來 一片光明的極大潛能
13:45
And this nonpartisanship is something that exists,
264
825780
5100
這樣無黨派立場的存在
13:50
that has existed in secret
265
830880
1739
必須是不為人知的
13:52
in America for years and years and years.
266
832619
1716
在美國好幾年來都是如此
13:54
I've spent a lot of the fall talking to the three major
267
834335
3964
我大概整個秋天 都在跟美國三大
13:58
organizations that survey American political attitudes:
268
838299
3896
政治態度民調機構討論
14:02
Pew Research,
269
842195
1554
其中包括皮尤研究中心
14:03
the University of Chicago's National Opinion Research Center,
270
843749
3648
芝加哥大學全國意見研究中心
14:07
and the most important but the least known
271
847397
2848
還有最舉足輕重卻鮮為人知的
14:10
is the American National Election Studies group
272
850245
2975
美國選舉研究中心
14:13
that is the world's longest, most respected poll of political attitudes.
273
853220
4346
它是全世界歷史最悠久 最具公信力的 政治態度民調中心
14:17
They've been doing it since 1948,
274
857566
1962
從1948年就開始做調查
14:19
and what they show consistently throughout
275
859528
3487
調查中顯出一個共通點
14:23
is that it's almost impossible to find Americans
276
863015
4447
就是美國幾乎找不到
14:27
who are consistent ideologically,
277
867462
3161
完全忠於某種主義的人
14:30
who consistently support, "No we mustn't tax,
278
870623
3736
始終認為:「不能課稅
14:34
and we must limit the size of government,"
279
874359
2680
我們要限制政府的權力範圍。」
14:37
or, "No, we must encourage government to play a larger role
280
877039
3700
或是「不 我們堅持政府 扮演要角
14:40
in redistribution and correcting the ills of capitalism."
281
880739
3996
政府要重新分配資源並改掉 資本主義的壞毛病。」
14:44
Those groups are very, very small.
282
884735
1878
這種群體少之又少
14:46
The vast majority of people, they pick and choose,
283
886613
2996
大多數人都東挑西揀
14:49
they see compromise and they change over time
284
889609
2564
找到折衷方案並在發現
14:52
when they hear a better argument or a worse argument.
285
892173
2533
更好或更糟的論點時 改變立場
14:54
And that part of it has not changed.
286
894706
3361
這種現象一如往昔
14:58
What has changed is how people respond to vague questions.
287
898067
3953
改變的是人們回答 籠統問題的方式
15:02
If you ask people vague questions, like,
288
902020
2598
如果你問別人籠統的問題 例如
15:04
"Do you think there should be more government or less government?"
289
904618
2992
「你認為政府要多干涉還少干涉經濟?」
15:07
"Do you think government should" — especially if you use loaded language --
290
907610
4314
「你認為政府應該...」尤其是 你用有偏見的方式去問時
15:11
"Do you think the government should provide handouts?"
291
911924
2479
「你認為政府應該提供救濟金嗎?」
15:14
Or, "Do you think the government should redistribute?"
292
914403
1929
或是「你認為政府應該重組嗎?」
15:16
Then you can see radical partisan change.
293
916332
2601
如此你就會發現極端的政治立場
15:18
But when you get specific, when you actually ask
294
918933
2694
但若你再更具體一點 如果你問
15:21
about the actual taxing and spending issues under consideration,
295
921627
4040
關於實際稅制與開銷等 值得注意的議題
15:25
people are remarkably centrist,
296
925667
2608
人們很明顯地變中立
15:28
they're remarkably open to compromise.
297
928275
2865
他們很樂意妥協
15:31
So what we have, then, when you think about the fiscal cliff,
298
931140
3785
所以以後談到政治懸崖的時候
15:34
don't think of it as the American people fundamentally
299
934925
4526
別想說這是美國人民完全
15:39
can't stand each other on these issues
300
939451
2176
不能達成共識的議題
15:41
and that we must be ripped apart
301
941627
1555
而我們一定得選邊站
15:43
into two separate warring nations.
302
943182
2322
把國家一分為二
15:45
Think of it as a tiny, tiny number of ancient economists
303
945504
5926
應該想說這只是一小群 老不修的經濟學家
15:51
and misrepresentative ideologues have captured the process.
304
951430
3846
和不誠實的理論家利用了這個議題
15:55
And they've captured the process through familiar ways,
305
955276
2576
他們用似曾相似的方法 來利用這個爭議
15:57
through a primary system which encourages
306
957852
2952
用主要體系來慫恿
16:00
that small group of people's voices,
307
960804
2232
某一小群人發聲
16:03
because that small group of people,
308
963036
2105
因為那一小群人
16:05
the people who answer all yeses or all noes
309
965141
3072
那群對於思想面的問題
16:08
on those ideological questions,
310
968213
2407
全部答是或否的激進份子
16:10
they might be small but every one of them has a blog,
311
970620
2607
他們可能是少數 但是每個人 都有一個部落格
16:13
every one of them has been on Fox or MSNBC in the last week.
312
973227
3754
每個人上禮拜至少都上過 Fox或MSNBC的節目
16:16
Every one of them becomes a louder and louder voice,
313
976981
3153
每個人說話的份量也越來越大
16:20
but they don't represent us.
314
980134
2132
但他們不能代表我們
16:22
They don't represent what our views are.
315
982266
3101
他們的想法不代表就是我們的
16:25
And that gets me back to the dollar,
316
985367
1806
這讓我回想到美元的問題
16:27
and it gets me back to reminding myself that
317
987173
3225
我不禁回想 提醒自己說
16:30
we know this experience.
318
990398
2010
我們有過類似經驗
16:32
We know what it's like
319
992408
1645
我們了解實際情況
16:34
to have these people on TV, in Congress,
320
994053
5355
那些在電視上 國會上的人
16:39
yelling about how the end of the world is coming
321
999408
2727
威脅說如果我們 不全盤採納他們的意見
16:42
if we don't adopt their view completely,
322
1002135
3226
世界末日就會到來
16:45
because it's happened about the dollar
323
1005361
1994
因為從我們開始有美元以來
16:47
ever since there's been a dollar.
324
1007355
2003
他們一直是如此
16:49
We had the battle between Jefferson and Hamilton.
325
1009358
3894
傑佛遜和漢密爾頓的爭論也是如此
16:53
In 1913, we had this ugly battle over the Federal Reserve,
326
1013252
4670
也就是1913年關於聯準會的那場惡鬥
16:57
when it was created, with vicious, angry arguments
327
1017922
3874
成立聯準會時 掀起一股 惡毒憤怒的爭論
17:01
over how it would be constituted,
328
1021796
1872
吵著聯準會要如何組成
17:03
and a general agreement that the way it was constituted
329
1023668
1777
而多數人同意的組成方式
17:05
was the worst possible compromise,
330
1025445
2907
其實是最糟的妥協辦法
17:08
a compromise guaranteed to destroy this valuable thing,
331
1028352
3360
這個辦法絕對會瓦解一個寶貴的東西
17:11
this dollar, but then everyone agreeing, okay,
332
1031712
2357
也就是美元 但大家又互相附和說
17:14
so long as we're on the gold standard, it should be okay.
333
1034069
2511
只要有金本位制度即可
17:16
The Fed can't mess it up so badly.
334
1036580
2050
聯準會不可能會搞砸的那麼嚴重
17:18
But then we got off the gold standard for individuals
335
1038630
4137
但接下來我們脫離金本位 因為
17:22
during the Depression and we got off the gold standard
336
1042767
2414
經濟大蕭條的引響 我們脫離金本位
17:25
as a source of international currency coordination
337
1045181
4098
認為這是國際貨幣一致性的開端
17:29
during Richard Nixon's presidency.
338
1049279
2232
尼克森總統任職期間廢除了金本位制
17:31
Each of those times, we were on the verge of complete collapse.
339
1051511
3973
每次危機時我們都如履薄冰
17:35
And nothing happened at all.
340
1055484
2154
但其實什麼事也沒發生
17:37
Throughout it all, the dollar has been
341
1057638
1938
整體來說 美元一直是
17:39
one of the most long-standing,
342
1059576
2308
最長效
17:41
stable, reasonable currencies,
343
1061884
2135
最穩定 最理性的貨幣
17:44
and we all use it every single day,
344
1064019
2167
而我們每天都會用到美元
17:46
no matter what the people screaming about tell us,
345
1066186
3025
無論別人怎麼激動的對我們說
17:49
no matter how scared we're supposed to be.
346
1069211
3044
無論我們有多害怕
17:52
And this long-term fiscal picture that we're in right now,
347
1072255
3945
我們目前的長期財政規劃
17:56
I think what is most maddening about it is,
348
1076200
3929
我認為最令人生氣的是
18:00
if Congress were simply able
349
1080129
3939
如果國會能夠
18:04
to show not that they agree with each other,
350
1084068
2373
不要一味的爭論到底誰贊同誰反對
18:06
not that they're able to come up with the best possible compromise,
351
1086441
3280
也不是告訴我們如何 達成最好的協議
18:09
but that they are able to just begin the process
352
1089721
3082
而是他們能夠實際開始
18:12
towards compromise, we all instantly are better off.
353
1092803
4481
妥協的過程 情況馬上就改善了
18:17
The fear is that the world is watching.
354
1097284
4134
真正恐怖的是 全世界都在看
18:21
The fear is that the longer we delay any solution,
355
1101418
3457
恐怖的是 越慢找到解決方法
18:24
the more the world will look to the U.S.
356
1104875
1788
美國留給別人的印象
18:26
not as the bedrock of stability in the global economy,
357
1106663
3620
再也不是全球經濟的穩定基石
18:30
but as a place that can't resolve its own fights,
358
1110283
3575
而是一個連自家內鬨也解決不了的笑話
18:33
and the longer we put that off, the more we make the world nervous,
359
1113858
3826
我們把問題拖得越久 就會讓全世界更緊張
18:37
the higher interest rates are going to be,
360
1117684
1783
利率會節節攀升
18:39
the quicker we're going to have to face a day
361
1119467
2704
我們得更早被迫面對
18:42
of horrible calamity.
362
1122171
2107
危機爆發的一天
18:44
And so just the act of compromise itself,
363
1124278
3564
只有真正去執行妥協的動作
18:47
and sustained, real compromise,
364
1127842
1901
執行真正能永續的協議
18:49
would give us even more time,
365
1129743
1814
才能爭取更多時間
18:51
would allow both sides even longer to spread out the pain
366
1131557
2962
也能讓兩黨有更多時間 分散疼痛
18:54
and reach even more compromise down the road.
367
1134519
2635
在未來才能繼續達成更多協議
18:57
So I'm in the media. I feel like my job to make this happen
368
1137154
3112
而我在媒體界工作 我想我有義務實現理想
19:00
is to help foster the things that seem to lead to compromise,
369
1140266
4293
就是促成可能的解決之道
19:04
to not talk about this in those vague and scary terms
370
1144559
4112
不是用含糊半帶威脅的態度去討論
19:08
that do polarize us,
371
1148671
1561
那樣只會加劇分裂
19:10
but to just talk about it like what it is,
372
1150232
2609
我們應該單純就當前情況去討論
19:12
not an existential crisis,
373
1152841
1943
不是把赤字懸崖看成已發生的樣子
19:14
not some battle between two fundamentally different religious views,
374
1154784
4973
也不是把危機看成 兩種信仰之間的鬥爭
19:19
but a math problem, a really solvable math problem,
375
1159757
2602
而是看成一道可以解決的數學題目
19:22
one where we're not all going to get what we want
376
1162359
2076
一個我們無法解決的面面俱到的問題
19:24
and one where, you know, there's going to be a little pain to spread around.
377
1164435
3955
而這個解決辦法需要大家一起分擔一點痛苦
19:28
But the more we address it as a practical concern,
378
1168390
3515
但用越實際的眼光去看待這個問題
19:31
the sooner we can resolve it,
379
1171905
1511
就越快可以解決
19:33
and the more time we have to resolve it, paradoxically.
380
1173416
3467
相對的 我們如此以來會有更多時間可以解決問題
19:36
Thank you. (Applause)
381
1176883
4984
謝謝 (掌聲)
關於本網站

本網站將向您介紹對學習英語有用的 YouTube 視頻。 您將看到來自世界各地的一流教師教授的英語課程。 雙擊每個視頻頁面上顯示的英文字幕,從那裡播放視頻。 字幕與視頻播放同步滾動。 如果您有任何意見或要求,請使用此聯繫表與我們聯繫。

https://forms.gle/WvT1wiN1qDtmnspy7