Adam Davidson: What we learned from teetering on the fiscal cliff

37,339 views ใƒป 2012-12-20

TED


์•„๋ž˜ ์˜๋ฌธ์ž๋ง‰์„ ๋”๋ธ”ํด๋ฆญํ•˜์‹œ๋ฉด ์˜์ƒ์ด ์žฌ์ƒ๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.

00:00
Translator: Morton Bast Reviewer: Thu-Huong Ha
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๋ฒˆ์—ญ: K Bang ๊ฒ€ํ† : Jieun Shin
00:16
So a friend of mine who's a political scientist,
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์ •์น˜ํ•™์ž์ธ ์ œ ์นœ๊ตฌ๊ฐ€
00:19
he told me several months ago
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์ด๋ฒˆ ๋‹ฌ์— ๋ฌด์Šจ ์ผ์ด ์ผ์–ด๋‚ ์ง€
00:20
exactly what this month would be like.
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๋ช‡ ๋‹ฌ ์ „์— ์ •ํ™•ํžˆ ์˜ˆ์ธกํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
00:22
He said, you know, there's this fiscal cliff coming,
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๊ทธ ์นœ๊ตฌ๊ฐ€ ์ด๋Ÿฌ๋”๊ตฐ์š”, ์žฌ์ • ์ ˆ๋ฒฝ(fiscal cliff)์ด ์šฐ๋ ค๋œ๋‹ค๊ณ ์š”.
00:25
it's going to come at the beginning of 2013.
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2013๋…„ ์ดˆ์— ์žฌ์ • ์ ˆ๋ฒฝ์ด ๋ฐœ์ƒํ•  ๊ฒƒ์ด๊ณ ,
00:29
Both parties absolutely need to resolve it,
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์–‘ ์ •๋‹น์ด ๋ฐ˜๋“œ์‹œ ํ•ด๊ฒฐํ•ด์•ผ ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ,
00:32
but neither party wants to be seen as the first to resolve it.
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์–ด๋Š ์ชฝ๋„ ๋จผ์ € ๋‚˜์„œ์ง€ ์•Š์„ ๊ฒƒ์ด๋ผ๊ตฌ์š”.
00:34
Neither party has any incentive to solve it a second before it's due,
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๋งˆ๊ฐ ์ง์ „์— ํ•ด๊ฒฐํ•œ๋‹ค๊ณ  ํ•ด๋„ ์–ด๋Š ๋‹น์—๋„ ์ด๋“์ด ์—†๋‹ค๊ณ ์š”.
00:39
so he said, December, you're just going to see lots of
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๊ทธ๋ž˜์„œ 12์›”์ด ๋˜๋ฉด ์ˆ˜๋งŽ์€
00:41
angry negotiations, negotiations breaking apart,
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์„ฑ๋‚œ ํ˜‘์ƒ, ํ˜‘์ƒ ํŒŒ๊ฒฐ์„ ๋ณด๊ฒŒ ๋  ๊ฒƒ์ด๊ณ 
00:44
reports of phone calls that aren't going well,
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๋ฌธ์ œ๊ฐ€ ํ•ด๊ฒฐ๋˜๊ณ  ์žˆ์ง€ ์•Š๋‹ค๋Š” ์ „ํ™”๋ฅผ ๋ฐ›์„ ๊ฒƒ์ด๊ณ ,
00:47
people saying nothing's happening at all,
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์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์€ ์•„๋ฌด ๊ฒƒ๋„ ์ง„์ „๋˜๊ณ  ์žˆ์ง€ ์•Š๋‹ค๊ณ  ํ•  ๊ฒƒ์ด๋ผ๊ณ ์š”.
00:49
and then sometime around Christmas or New Year's,
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๊ทธ๋Ÿฌ๋‹ค๊ฐ€ ๊ฐ‘์ž๊ธฐ ํฌ๋ฆฌ์Šค๋งˆ์Šค๋‚˜ ์ƒˆํ•ด์—
00:52
we're going to hear, "Okay, they resolved everything."
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'๋ชจ๋“  ๊ฒƒ์ด ํ•ด๊ฒฐ๋˜์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค'๋ผ๋Š” ์–˜๊ธฐ๋ฅผ ๋“ฃ๊ฒŒ ๋ ๊ฑฐ๋ผ๊ณ ์š”.
00:54
He told me that a few months ago. He said he's 98 percent positive they're going to resolve it,
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๋ช‡๋‹ฌ ์ „๊นŒ์ง€๋งŒ ํ•ด๋„ ๊ทธ๋Š” ์ด ๋ฌธ์ œ๊ฐ€ ํ•ด๊ฒฐ๋  ๊ฑฐ๋ผ๊ณ  98ํผ์„ผํŠธ ํ™•์‹ ํ•œ๋‹ค๊ณ  ํ–ˆ์ง€๋งŒ
00:59
and I got an email from him today saying, all right,
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์˜ค๋Š˜ ์ด ์นœ๊ตฌ๋กœ๋ถ€ํ„ฐ ๋ฐ›์€ ์ด๋ฉ”์ผ์— ๋”ฐ๋ฅด๋ฉด
01:02
we're basically on track, but now I'm 80 percent positive
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์ผ์ด ์˜ˆ์ •๋Œ€๋กœ ์ง„ํ–‰๋˜๊ณ  ์žˆ๊ธด ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ, ์ด์   ์ด ๋ฌธ์ œ๊ฐ€
01:05
that they're going to resolve it.
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ํ•ด๊ฒฐ๋  ๊ฑฐ๋ผ๋Š”๋ฐ์— 80ํผ์„ผํŠธ๋งŒ ํ™•์‹ ํ•œ๋‹ค๋”๊ตฐ์š”.
01:07
And it made me think. I love studying
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์ €๋Š” ์ƒ๊ฐํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
01:10
these moments in American history
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์ €๋Š” ๊ฒฝ์ œ๊ฐ€ ๋ถ•๊ดด ๋˜๊ธฐ ์ง์ „์—
01:12
when there was this frenzy of partisan anger,
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์ด๋ ‡๊ฒŒ ๋‹นํŒŒ๋ผ๋ฆฌ ๊ด‘๋ž€์˜ ๋…ผ์Ÿ์„ ํ•˜๋Š”
01:16
that the economy was on the verge of total collapse.
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๋ฏธ๊ตญ์˜ ์ด๋Ÿฐ ์ˆœ๊ฐ„์„ ์—ฐ๊ตฌํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ด ํฅ๋ฏธ๋กœ์› ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
01:19
The most famous early battle was Alexander Hamilton
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์ดˆ๊ธฐ์˜ ๊ฐ€์žฅ ์œ ๋ช…ํ•œ ๋…ผ์Ÿ์€ ์•Œ๋ ‰์‚ฐ๋” ํ•ด๋ฐ€ํ„ด๊ณผ
01:23
and Thomas Jefferson over what the dollar would be
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ํ† ๋จธ์Šค ์ œํผ์Šจ์ด ๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ๊ฐ€ ๋ฌด์—‡์ด์–ด์•ผ ํ•˜๋ฉฐ
01:27
and how it would be backed up, with Alexander Hamilton
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์–ด๋–ป๊ฒŒ ๊ทธ๊ฒƒ์„ ๋ณด์กฐํ•ด์•ผ ํ•˜๋Š”์ง€์— ๊ด€ํ•ด ๋ฒŒ์ธ ๋…ผ์Ÿ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
01:29
saying, "We need a central bank, the First Bank of the United States,
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์•Œ๋ ‰์‚ฐ๋” ํ•ด๋ฐ€ํ„ด์€ ์ด๋Ÿฐ ๋ง์„ ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. "์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ์ค‘์•™์€ํ–‰์ด ํ•„์š”ํ•˜๋‹ค, ๋ฏธ๊ตญ์˜ ์ฒซ๋ฒˆ์งธ ์€ํ–‰์œผ๋กœ,
01:32
or else the dollar will have no value.
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์ค‘์•™์€ํ–‰์ด ์—†๋‹ค๋ฉด ๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ๋Š” ์•„๋ฌด๋Ÿฐ ๊ฐ€์น˜๊ฐ€ ์—†์„ ๊ฒƒ์ด๋‹ค.
01:34
This economy won't work,"
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์ด ๊ฒฝ์ œ๋Š” ์ œ๋Œ€๋กœ ๋Œ์•„๊ฐ€์ง€ ์•Š์„ ๊ฒƒ์ด๋‹ค."
01:36
and Thomas Jefferson saying, "The people won't trust that.
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ํ† ๋งˆ์Šค ์ œํผ์Šจ์€ ์ด๋ ‡๊ฒŒ ๋งํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค "์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์€ ๊ทธ๊ฒƒ์„ ๋ฏฟ์ง€ ์•Š์„ ๊ฒƒ์ด๋‹ค.
01:38
They just fought off a king. They're not going to accept some central authority."
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๊ทธ๋“ค์€ ๋ฐฉ๊ธˆ ์™•์„ ๋ชฐ์•„๋‚ธ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์ด๋‹ค. ๊ทธ๋“ค์€ ๋˜ ๋‹ค๋ฅธ ์ค‘์•™ ๊ถŒ๋ ฅ์„ ์ธ์ •ํ•˜์ง€ ์•Š์„ ๊ฒƒ์ด๋‹ค."
01:42
This battle defined the first 150 years of the U.S. economy,
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์ด ๋…ผ์Ÿ์€ ๋ฏธ๊ตญ ๊ฒฝ์ œ์˜ ์ดˆ๊ธฐ 150๋…„์„ ๊ฒฐ์ •์ง€์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
01:47
and at every moment, different partisans saying,
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ๋งค ์ˆœ๊ฐ„ ์„œ๋กœ ๋‹ค๋ฅธ ์—ด๋ ฌํ•œ ์ง€์ง€์ž๋“ค์€
01:51
"Oh my God, the economy's about to collapse,"
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"์˜ค, ์„ธ์ƒ์—, ๊ฒฝ์ œ๊ฐ€ ๊ณง ๋ถ•๊ดด๋ ๊ฑฐ์•ผ" ๋ผ๊ณ  ๋งํ•˜๋ฉฐ
01:53
and the rest of us just going about, spending our bucks
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ๋‚˜๋จธ์ง€ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์€ ๋‚˜๊ฐ€์„œ
01:55
on whatever it is we wanted to buy.
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์•„๋ฌด ๋ฌผ๊ฑด์ด๋‚˜ ์‚ฌ๋ฉด์„œ ๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ๋ฅผ ํŽ‘ํŽ‘ ์จ๋Œ”์ง€์š”.
01:58
To give you a quick primer on where we are,
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ์–ด๋–ค ์ƒํ™ฉ์— ์žˆ๋Š”์ง€
02:01
a quick refresher on where we are.
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์—ฌ๋Ÿฌ๋ถ„๊ป˜ ๊ฐ„๋žตํ•˜๊ฒŒ ์งš์–ด๋“œ๋ฆฌ๊ฒ ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
02:03
So the fiscal cliff, I was told
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์ž, ์ œ๊ฐ€ ๋“ค์€ ๋ฐ”๋กœ๋Š”, ์žฌ์ • ์ ˆ๋ฒฝ์€
02:06
that that's too partisan a thing to say,
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์ •ํ™•ํžˆ ์–ด๋–ค ์ •๋‹น์ด ์ง€์ง€ํ•˜๋Š”์ง€ ๋ฐ˜๋Œ€ํ•˜๋Š”์ง€๋Š” ๋ชจ๋ฅด๊ฒ ์ง€๋งŒ,
02:08
although I can't remember which party it's supporting or attacking.
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์žฌ์ • ์ ˆ๋ฒฝ์€ ๋„ˆ๋ฌด๋‚˜๋„ ๋‹นํŒŒ์ ์ธ ์ด๋ฆ„์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
02:11
People say we should call it the fiscal slope,
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๊ทธ๋ž˜์„œ ์–ด๋–ค ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์€ ๊ทธ๊ฒƒ์„ '์žฌ์ • ๊ฒฝ์‚ฌ'๋ผ๊ณ  ๋ถˆ๋Ÿฌ์•ผ ํ•œ๋‹ค๊ณ  ํ•˜๊ณ 
02:14
or we should call it an austerity crisis,
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ํ˜น์€ ์–ด๋–ค ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์€ '๊ถํ•ํ•œ ์ƒํ™œ ์œ„๊ธฐ'๋ผ๊ณ  ๋ถˆ๋Ÿฌ์•ผ ํ•œ๋‹ค๊ณ  ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
02:16
but then other people say, no, that's even more partisan.
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ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ ๋‹ค๋ฅธ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์€, "์•„๋‹ˆ์•ผ, ๊ทธ๊ฒŒ ๋” ๋‹นํŒŒ์ ์ด์•ผ"๋ผ๊ณ  ๋งํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
02:18
So I just call it the self-imposed, self-destructive
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๊ทธ๋ž˜์„œ ์ „ ๊ทธ๋ƒฅ ๊ทธ๊ฒƒ์„ "ํ”ผํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์—†๋Š” ๋ฌธ์ œ๋“ค์„ ํ•ด๊ฒฐํ•ด์•ผ ํ•˜๋Š”
02:21
arbitrary deadline about resolving an inevitable problem.
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์Šค์Šค๋กœ ๋„์ž…๋˜๊ณ  ์Šค์Šค๋กœ ํŒŒ๊ดด๋˜๋Š” ์ž„์˜์˜ ๋งˆ๊ฐ ๊ธฐํ•œ"์ด๋ผ๊ณ  ๋ถ€๋ฆ…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
02:26
And this is what the inevitable problem looks like.
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๊ทธ 'ํ”ผํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์—†๋Š” ๋ฌธ์ œ'๋ž€ ์ด๋Ÿฐ ๊ฒ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
02:29
So this is a projection of U.S. debt as a percentage
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์ด๊ฒƒ์€ ๋ฏธ๊ตญ ๋ถ€์ฑ„์˜ ์ „๋ง์„ ์šฐ๋ฆฌ์˜ GDP ๋Œ€๋น„ ๋น„์œจ๋กœ
02:34
of our overall economy, of GDP.
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๋‚˜ํƒ€๋‚ธ ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
02:36
The light blue dotted line represents
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ํ•˜๋Š˜์ƒ‰ ์ ์„ ์€
02:39
the Congressional Budget Office's best guess
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์˜ํšŒ ์˜ˆ์‚ฐ๊ตญ์ด ์˜ˆ์ƒํ•œ,
02:42
of what will happen if Congress really doesn't do anything,
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์˜ํšŒ๊ฐ€ ์ •๋ง ์•„๋ฌด๋Ÿฐ ์กฐ์น˜๋„ ์ทจํ•˜์ง€ ์•Š์•˜์„ ๋•Œ ์ผ์–ด๋‚  ์ผ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
02:46
and as you can see, sometime around 2027,
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์—ฌ๋Ÿฌ๋ถ„์ด ๋ณด์‹œ๋‹ค์‹œํ”ผ, 2027๋…„ ์ฏค์—๋Š”
02:49
we reach Greek levels of debt,
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ์˜ ๋ถ€์ฑ„๊ฐ€ ๊ทธ๋ฆฌ์Šค ์ˆ˜์ค€์— ๋„๋‹ฌํ•˜๊ฒŒ ๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
02:51
somewhere around 130 percent of GDP,
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GDP์˜ 130%์ฏค ๋˜๋Š” ์ง€์ ์— ๋ง์ด์ง€์š”.
02:54
which tells you that some time in the next 20 years,
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๊ทธ๋Ÿฌ๋‹ˆ๊นŒ ๋งŒ์•ฝ ์˜ํšŒ๊ฐ€ ์•„๋ฌด๊ฒƒ๋„ ํ•˜์ง€ ์•Š๋Š”๋‹ค๋ฉด
02:58
if Congress does absolutely nothing,
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20๋…„์ฏค ๋’ค์—๋Š”
03:00
we're going to hit a moment where the world's investors,
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์„ธ๊ณ„์˜ ํˆฌ์ž์ž๋“ค๊ณผ
03:04
the world's bond buyers, are going to say,
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์„ธ๊ณ„์˜ ์ฑ„๊ถŒ ๊ตฌ๋งค์ž๋“ค์ด ์ด๋Ÿฐ ๋ง์„ ํ• ์ง€๋„ ๋ชจ๋ฆ…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค,
03:05
"We don't trust America anymore. We're not going to lend them any money,
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"์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ๋”์ด์ƒ ๋ฏธ๊ตญ์„ ๋ฏฟ์„ ์ˆ˜ ์—†์–ด. ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ๋”์ด์ƒ ๋ฏธ๊ตญ์— ๋ˆ์„ ๋นŒ๋ ค์ฃผ์ง€ ์•Š์„๊ฑฐ์•ผ,
03:08
except at really high interest rates."
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์ด์ž๋ฅผ ์—„์ฒญ๋‚˜๊ฒŒ ๋งŽ์ด ์ค€๋‹ค๋ฉด ๋˜ ๋ชจ๋ฅผ๊นŒ."
03:10
And at that moment our economy collapses.
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๊ทธ ์ˆœ๊ฐ„ ์šฐ๋ฆฌ ๊ฒฝ์ œ๋Š” ์ถ”๋ฝํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
03:13
But remember, Greece is there today.
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ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ ๊ธฐ์–ตํ•˜์„ธ์š”. ๊ทธ๋ฆฌ์Šค๋Š” ํ˜„์žฌ ๊ทธ๋Ÿฐ ์ƒํ™ฉ์„ ๊ฒช๊ณ  ์žˆ์–ด์š”.
03:15
We're there in 20 years. We have lots and lots of time
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” 20๋…„ ๋’ค์— ๊ฐ™์€ ์ผ์„ ๊ฒช๊ฒŒ ๋˜๊ฒ ์ฃ .
03:19
to avoid that crisis,
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ์—๊ฒŒ๋Š” ๊ทธ ์œ„๊ธฐ๋ฅผ ํ”ผํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋Š” ์‹œ๊ฐ„์ด ์•„์ฃผ ๋งŽ์•„์š”
03:21
and the fiscal cliff was just one more attempt
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์žฌ์ • ์ ˆ๋ฒฝ์€ ๋‘ ๋‹นํŒŒ๊ฐ€ ์œ„๊ธฐ๋ฅผ ํ•ด๊ฒฐํ•˜๋„๋ก ํ•˜๊ธฐ ์œ„ํ•œ
03:25
at trying to force the two sides to resolve the crisis.
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ํ•˜๋‚˜์˜ ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•์— ์ง€๋‚˜์ง€ ์•Š์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
03:28
Here's another way to look at exactly the same problem.
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๋˜‘๊ฐ™์€ ๋ฌธ์ œ๋ฅผ ์ด๋ ‡๊ฒŒ ๋ณผ ์ˆ˜๋„ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
03:32
The dark blue line is how much the government spends.
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์ง™์€ ํŒŒ๋ž€์ƒ‰ ์„ ์€ ์ •๋ถ€์˜ ์ง€์ถœ์„ ๋‚˜ํƒ€๋‚ด๋Š” ์„ ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
03:35
The light blue line is how much the government gets in.
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ํ•˜๋Š˜์ƒ‰ ์„ ์€ ์ •๋ถ€์˜ ์ˆ˜์ž…์„ ๋‚˜ํƒ€๋ƒ…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
03:38
And as you can see, for most of recent history,
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๋ณด์‹œ๋‹ค์‹œํ”ผ, ์งง์€ ๊ธฐ๊ฐ„์„ ์ œ์™ธํ•˜๊ณ  ์ตœ๊ทผ์—๋Š”
03:41
except for a brief period, we have consistently spent
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๊ณ„์† ์ •๋ถ€์˜ ์ง€์ถœ์ด ์ˆ˜์ž…๋ณด๋‹ค ๋งŽ์•˜์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
03:44
more than we take in. Thus the national debt.
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๊ทธ๋ž˜์„œ ๋นš์„ ์ง€๊ฒŒ ๋˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ด์ง€์š”.
03:48
But as you can also see, projected going forward,
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ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ ๋ณด์‹œ๋‹ค์‹œํ”ผ, ์ด๊ฒƒ์€ ๋” ๋‚˜์•„๊ฐ€์„œ
03:51
the gap widens a bit and raises a bit,
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๊ฒฉ์ฐจ๊ฐ€ ๋” ์ปค์ง€๊ฒŒ ๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
03:55
and this graph is only through 2021.
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์—ฌ๊ธฐ์„œ ์ด ๊ทธ๋ž˜ํ”„๋Š” 2021๋…„๊นŒ์ง€๋งŒ ๋ณด์—ฌ์ฃผ์ง€๋งŒ
03:57
It gets really, really ugly out towards 2030.
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2030๋…„์—๋Š” ์ •๋ง ์ตœ์•…์ด ๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
04:00
And this graph sort of sums up what the problem is.
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์ด ๊ทธ๋ž˜ํ”„๋Š” ์šฐ๋ฆฌ์˜ ๋ฌธ์ œ๊ฐ€ ๋ฌด์—‡์ธ์ง€๋ฅผ ์ž˜ ์š”์•ฝํ•ด ์ค๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
04:04
The Democrats, they say, well, this isn't a big deal.
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๋ฏผ์ฃผ๋‹น์€ ์ด๊ฒƒ์€ ๋ณ„์ผ์ด ์•„๋‹ˆ๋ผ๊ณ  ๋งํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
04:07
We can just raise taxes a bit and close that gap,
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"์„ธ๊ธˆ์„ ์กฐ๊ธˆ ์ธ์ƒํ•˜๋ฉด ์ € ๊ฐ„๊ทน์„ ๋ฉ”์šธ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์–ด.
04:12
especially if we raise taxes on the rich.
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ํŠนํžˆ ๋ถ€์ž์—๊ฒŒ ์„ธ๊ธˆ์„ ๋Š˜์ธ๋‹ค๋ฉด ๋ง์ด์•ผ."
04:14
The Republicans say, hey, no, no, we've got a better idea.
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๊ทธ๋Ÿฌ๋ฉด ๊ณตํ™”๋‹น์€, "์ž ๊น๋งŒ, ์šฐ๋ฆฌํ•œํ…Œ ๋” ์ข‹์€ ์ƒ๊ฐ์ด ์žˆ์–ด.
04:16
Why don't we lower both lines?
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๋‘ ์„ ์„ ๋‹ค ๋‚ด๋ฆฌ๋ฉด ๋˜์ž–์•„?
04:18
Why don't we lower government spending and lower government taxes,
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์ •๋ถ€ ์ง€์ถœ๊ณผ ์„ธ๊ธˆ์„ ๋‘˜๋‹ค ๋‚ฎ์ถ”๋Š” ๊ฑฐ์ง€.
04:22
and then we'll be on an even more favorable
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๊ทธ๋Ÿฌ๋ฉด ์ ์ž๋ฅผ ๋” ๋งŽ์ด
04:25
long-term deficit trajectory?
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๊ฐ์†Œ์‹œํ‚ฌ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์ž–์•„."
04:28
And behind this powerful disagreement between
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์žฌ์ • ์ ์ž๋ฅผ ๋ฉ”๊ฟ€ ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ
04:32
how to close that gap,
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๋‘ ์ •๋‹น์˜ ์˜๊ฒฌ ์ฐจ์ด ๋’ค์—๋Š”,
04:34
there's the worst kind of cynical party politics,
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์•„์ฃผ ์ด๊ธฐ์ ์ธ ์ •์น˜ ๊ณต์ž‘์ด ์ˆจ์–ด์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
04:37
the worst kind of insider baseball, lobbying, all of that stuff,
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๋‚ด๋ถ€์ž๋“ค๋ผ๋ฆฌ ๋กœ๋น„ํ•˜๊ณ  ๊ทธ๋Ÿฐ ์ข…๋ฅ˜์˜ ์ผ๋“ค ๋ง์ด์—์š”.
04:43
but there's also this powerfully interesting,
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ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ ์ด ์ค‘์š”ํ•œ
04:47
respectful disagreement between
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์˜๊ฒฌ ๋ถˆ์ผ์น˜ ๋’ค์—๋Š”
04:50
two fundamentally different economic philosophies.
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๋‘ ๊ฐœ์˜ ๊ทผ๋ณธ์ ์œผ๋กœ ๋‹ค๋ฅธ ๊ฒฝ์ œ ์ฒ ํ•™๋„ ์ˆจ์–ด์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
04:53
And I like to think, when I picture how Republicans
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์ €๋Š”, ๊ณตํ™”๋‹น์ด ๊ฒฝ์ œ์— ๋Œ€ํ•ด
04:58
see the economy, what I picture is just some amazingly
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์–ด๋–ป๊ฒŒ ์ƒ๊ฐํ•˜๋Š”์ง€ ์ƒ์ƒํ•  ๋•Œ,
05:03
well-engineered machine, some perfect machine.
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์—„์ฒญ๋‚˜๊ฒŒ ์ž˜ ๋งŒ๋“ค์–ด์ง„ ๊ธฐ๊ณ„๋ฅผ ์ƒ๊ฐํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์™„๋ฒฝํ•œ ๊ธฐ๊ณ„ ๋ง์ด์˜ˆ์š”.
05:06
Unfortunately, I picture it made in Germany or Japan,
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์‚ฌ์‹ค ๋…์ผ์‚ฐ, ์ผ๋ณธ์‚ฐ ๊ธฐ๊ณ„๊ฐ€ ๋จผ์ € ๋– ์˜ค๋ฅด์ง€๋งŒ์š”. (์›ƒ์Œ)
05:11
but this amazing machine that's constantly scouring
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์ด ๋†€๋ผ์šด ๊ธฐ๊ณ„๋Š” ์ง€์†์ ์œผ๋กœ ๋ชจ๋“  ์ธ๊ฐ„์˜ ๋…ธ๋ ฅ๊ณผ
05:14
every bit of human endeavor and taking resources,
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๋ˆ, ๋…ธ๋™, ์ž๋ณธ, ๊ธฐ๊ณ„ ๊ฐ™์€
05:19
money, labor, capital, machinery,
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์ž์›๋“ค์„
05:21
away from the least productive parts and towards the more productive parts,
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๋œ ์ƒ์‚ฐ์ ์ธ ๊ณณ์—์„œ ๋” ์ƒ์‚ฐ์ ์ธ ๊ณณ์œผ๋กœ ์˜ฎ๊น๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
05:25
and while this might cause temporary dislocation,
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์ด๊ฒƒ์€ ์ผ์‹œ์ ์œผ๋กœ ํ˜ผ๋ž€์„ ์•ผ๊ธฐํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์ง€๋งŒ,
05:27
what it does is it builds up the more productive areas
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์ด๊ฒƒ์ด ํ•˜๋Š” ์ผ์€, ์ƒ์‚ฐ์ ์ธ ๋ถ€๋ถ„์€ ๋” ๋ฐœ์ „์‹œํ‚ค๊ณ 
05:30
and lets the less productive areas fade away and die,
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๋œ ์ƒ์‚ฐ์ ์ธ ๋ถ€๋ถ„์€ ์ ์  ์‚ฌ๋ผ์ง€๊ฒŒ ํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
05:33
and as a result the whole system is so much more efficient,
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๊ฒฐ๊ณผ์ ์œผ๋กœ ์ „์ฒด ์‹œ์Šคํ…œ์€ ํ›จ์”ฌ ๋” ํšจ์œจ์ ์ด๊ฒŒ ๋˜๊ณ 
05:36
so much richer for everybody.
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ ๋ชจ๋‘๋Š” ์ด์ต์„ ๋ด…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
05:38
And this view generally believes that there is a role for government,
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์ด๋Ÿฌํ•œ ๊ด€์ ์„ ๊ฐ€์ง„ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์€ ์ •๋ถ€๊ฐ€ ํ•ด์ค˜์•ผ ํ•  ์ผ์ด ์žˆ๋‹ค๊ณ  ์ฃผ์žฅํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
05:42
a small role, to set the rules so people aren't lying
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์ž‘์€ ์—ญํ• . ์ฆ‰, ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์ด ๊ฑฐ์ง“๋งํ•˜๊ณ  ๋‚˜์œ์ง“์„ ํ•˜๊ฑฐ๋‚˜
05:45
and cheating and hurting each other,
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์„œ๋กœ๋ฅผ ๋‹ค์น˜๊ฒŒ ํ•˜์ง€ ์•Š๋„๋ก ๊ทœ์น™์„ ์ •ํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ ๋ง์ด์ง€์š”.
05:47
maybe, you know, have a police force and a fire department
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๊ฒฝ์ฐฐ์ด๋‚˜ ์†Œ๋ฐฉ์„œ, ๊ตฐ๋Œ€ ๊ฐ™์ด ๋ง์ด์—์š”.
05:50
and an army, but to have a very limited reach
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ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ ์ด ๊ธฐ๊ณ„์˜ ์ฒด๊ณ„์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ์ ‘๊ทผ์€
05:53
into the mechanisms of this machinery.
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์ œํ•œ๋˜์–ด ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
05:56
And when I picture how Democrats and Democratic-leaning
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ๋ฏผ์ฃผ๋‹น๊ณผ ๋ฏผ์ฃผ๋‹น ๊ฒฝ์ œํ•™์ž๋“ค์ด
06:01
economists picture this economy,
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์ด๋Ÿฐ ๊ฒฝ์ œ๋ฅผ ์–ด๋–ป๊ฒŒ ๋ณผ์ง€ ์ƒ๊ฐํ•ด๋ณด๋ฉด ์ด๋ ‡์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
06:04
most Democratic economists are, you know, they're capitalists,
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๋Œ€๋ถ€๋ถ„์˜ ๋ฏผ์ฃผ๋‹น ๊ฒฝ์ œํ•™์ž๋“ค์€ ์ž๋ณธ์ฃผ์˜์ž์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
06:06
they believe, yes, that's a good system a lot of the time.
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๊ทธ๋“ค์€, "๊ทธ๋ž˜, ์ด๊ฑด ์ข‹์€ ์‹œ์Šคํ…œ์ด์•ผ.
06:09
It's good to let markets move resources to their more productive use.
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์‹œ์žฅ์ด ์ž์›์„ ์•Œ์•„์„œ ๋ถ„๋ฐฐํ•˜๋„๋ก ๋‘๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์€ ์ข‹์€๊ฑฐ์•ผ." ๋ผ๊ณ  ์ƒ๊ฐํ•˜๊ฒ ์ฃ .
06:13
But that system has tons of problems.
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ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ ๊ทธ ์‹œ์Šคํ…œ์€ ๋ฌธ์ œ๊ฐ€ ์•„์ฃผ ๋งŽ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
06:17
Wealth piles up in the wrong places.
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๋ถ€๊ฐ€ ์ž˜๋ชป๋œ ๊ณณ์— ์Œ“์ด๊ฒŒ ๋˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
06:19
Wealth is ripped away from people who shouldn't be called unproductive.
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์—ด์‹ฌํžˆ ์ผํ•˜๋Š” ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์—๊ฒŒ์„œ ๋ถ€๊ฐ€ ์‚ฌ๋ผ์ง€๊ฒŒ ๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
06:24
That's not going to create an equitable, fair society.
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์ด๊ฒƒ์€ ์ ˆ๋Œ€ ๊ณตํ‰ํ•˜๊ณ  ๊ณต์ •ํ•œ ์‚ฌํšŒ๋ฅผ ๋งŒ๋“ค์ง€ ๋ชปํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
06:26
That machine doesn't care about the environment,
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๊ทธ ๊ธฐ๊ณ„๋Š” ์šฐ๋ฆฌ์˜ ์‚ถ์„ ์•…ํ™”์‹œํ‚ค๋Š”
06:29
about racism, about all these issues
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์ธ์ข…์ฐจ๋ณ„์ด๋‚˜ ํ™˜๊ฒฝ ๊ฐ™์€ ์ผ์— ๋Œ€ํ•ด์„œ๋Š”
06:31
that make this life worse for all of us,
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์‹ ๊ฒฝ์„ ์“ฐ์ง€ ์•Š์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
06:34
and so the government does have a role to take resources
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๊ทธ๋Ÿฌ๋ฏ€๋กœ ์ •๋ถ€๋Š” ๋ถ€์œ ํ•˜๊ณ  ์ƒ์‚ฐ์ ์ธ ๊ณณ์—์„œ
06:37
from more productive uses, or from richer sources,
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์ž์›์„ ๊ฐ€์ ธ์™€์„œ
06:41
and give them to other sources.
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๊ทธ๊ฒƒ์„ ๋‹ค๋ฅธ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์—๊ฒŒ ๋ถ„๋ฐฐํ•˜๋Š” ์ผ์„ ํ•ด์•ผ ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
06:43
And when you think about the economy through these two different lenses,
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์ด๋ ‡๊ฒŒ ๋‘๊ฐœ์˜ ๋‹ค๋ฅธ ์‹œ๊ฐ์—์„œ ๊ฒฝ์ œ๋ฅผ ๋ฐ”๋ผ๋ณด๋ฉด
06:48
you understand why this crisis is so hard to solve,
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์—ฌ๋Ÿฌ๋ถ„์€ ์™œ ์ด ๋ฌธ์ œ๊ฐ€ ๊ทธํ† ๋ก ํ•ด๊ฒฐํ•˜๊ธฐ ์–ด๋ ค์šด ๋ฌธ์ œ์ธ์ง€ ์•Œ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
06:52
because the worse the crisis gets, the higher the stakes are,
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์œ„๊ธฐ๊ฐ€ ๋” ๊ณ ์กฐ๋ ์ˆ˜๋ก ๊ทธ๋“ค์€
06:56
the more each side thinks they know the answer
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์„œ๋กœ ์ž๊ธฐ๊ฐ€ ์ •๋‹ต์„ ์•Œ๊ณ  ์žˆ๋‹ค๊ณ  ์ƒ๊ฐํ•˜๊ณ 
06:59
and the other side is just going to ruin everything.
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์ƒ๋Œ€ํŽธ์˜ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์ด ์ด ์‚ฌํƒœ๋ฅผ ์•…ํ™”์‹œํ‚ค๊ณ  ์žˆ๋‹ค๊ณ  ์ƒ๊ฐํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
07:02
And I can get really despairing. I've spent a lot
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์ €๋Š” ๊ต‰์žฅํžˆ ์šฐ์šธํ•ด์กŒ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
07:06
of the last few years really depressed about this,
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์ €๋Š” ์ง€๋‚œ ๋ช‡๋…„์„ ์ด๋Ÿฐ ๊ฒƒ๋“ค ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์— ์šฐ์šธํ•˜๊ฒŒ ๋ณด๋ƒˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค
07:09
until this year, I learned something that
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์˜ฌํ•ด์— ์ œ๊ฐ€ ๋ญ”๊ฐ€๋ฅผ ๋ฐฐ์šฐ๊ธฐ ์ „๊นŒ์ง€๋Š” ๋ง์ด์ฃ .
07:12
I felt really excited about. I feel like it's really good news,
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์ €๋Š” ์ •๋ง ํฅ๋ถ„๋์—ˆ์ฃ . ์ด๊ฑด ์ •๋ง ์ข‹์€ ์†Œ์‹์ธ ๊ฒƒ ๊ฐ™์•„์š”.
07:15
and it's so shocking, I don't like saying it, because I think
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ๋งค์šฐ ์ถฉ๊ฒฉ์ ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์ €๋Š” ์ด๊ฑธ ๋งํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์„ ๋ณ„๋กœ ์ข‹์•„ํ•˜์ง€ ์•Š๋Š”๋ฐ,
07:18
people won't believe me.
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์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์ด ์ €๋ฅผ ๋ฏฟ์ง€ ์•Š์„ ๊ฒƒ ๊ฐ™์•„์„œ ๊ทธ๋ ‡์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
07:20
But here's what I learned.
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์•„๋ฌดํŠผ, ์ œ๊ฐ€ ์•Œ๊ฒŒ๋œ ๊ฒƒ์€ ์ด๋ ‡์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
07:21
The American people, taken as a whole,
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์ „๋ฐ˜์ ์œผ๋กœ ๋ฏธ๊ตญ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์€
07:23
when it comes to these issues, to fiscal issues,
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์žฌ์ • ์ ˆ๋ฒฝ๊ฐ™์€ ๋ฌธ์ œ์— ๋Œ€ํ•ด์„œ๋Š”
07:26
are moderate, pragmatic centrists.
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๋ณดํ†ต์˜ ์‹ค์šฉ์ ์ธ ์ค‘๋„์ฃผ์˜์ž๊ฐ€ ๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
07:30
And I know that's hard to believe, that the American people
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๋ฌผ๋ก  ์ €๋„ ๋ฏธ๊ตญ์ธ๋“ค์ด ๋ณดํ†ต์˜ ์‹ค์šฉ์ ์ธ ์ค‘๋„์ฃผ์˜์ž๋ผ๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ด
07:32
are moderate, pragmatic centrists.
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๋ฏฟ๊ธฐ ์–ด๋ ต๋‹ค๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์„ ์•Œ๊ณ  ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
07:34
But let me explain what I'm thinking.
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๊ทธ๋ž˜์„œ ํ•œ๋ฒˆ ์„ค๋ช…์„ ํ•ด๋ณด๊ฒ ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
07:36
When you look at how the federal government spends money,
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์—ฐ๋ฐฉ ์ •๋ถ€๊ฐ€ ์ง€์ถœํ•˜๋Š” ๋ˆ์— ๋Œ€ํ•ด ์‚ดํŽด๋ณด๋ฉด,
07:40
so this is the battle right here,
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์ž, ์ด๊ฒƒ์ด ๋ฐ”๋กœ ๋…ผ์Ÿ ๊ฑฐ๋ฆฌ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
07:42
55 percent, more than half, is on Social Security,
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์ ˆ๋ฐ˜ ์ด์ƒ์ธ 55%๊ฐ€ ์‚ฌํšŒ ๋ณด์žฅ ์ œ๋„์— ์“ฐ์ด๊ณ  ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
07:45
Medicare, Medicaid, a few other health programs,
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์˜๋ฃŒ ๋ณดํ—˜, ์˜๋ฃŒ ๋ณด์žฅ ์ œ๋„, ๋ช‡๋ช‡ ๊ฑด๊ฐ• ๊ด€๋ จ ํ”„๋กœ๊ทธ๋žจ๋“ค์ด์ฃ .
07:47
20 percent defense, 19 percent discretionary,
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ๊ตญ๋ฐฉ๋น„ 20%, ๊ธฐํƒ€ 19%,
07:50
and six percent interest.
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  6 %์˜ ์ด์ž์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
07:52
So when we're talking about cutting government spending,
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๊ทธ๋Ÿฌ๋‹ˆ๊นŒ ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ์ •๋ถ€ ์ง€์ถœ์— ๋Œ€ํ•ด ์ด์•ผ๊ธฐ ํ• ๋•Œ
07:57
this is the pie we're talking about,
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์ด์•ผ๊ธฐํ•˜๋Š” ํŒŒ์ด๊ฐ€ ์ด๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
07:59
and Americans overwhelmingly, and it doesn't matter
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ๋ฏธ๊ตญ์ธ๋“ค์€ ์–ด๋Š ์ •๋‹น์— ์†ํ•ด์žˆ๊ฑด
08:03
what party they're in, overwhelmingly like
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์ €๊ธฐ ์ € 55%์˜ ํŒŒ์ด๋ฅผ ์••๋„์ ์œผ๋กœ
08:06
that big 55 percent chunk.
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์ข‹์•„ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
08:09
They like Social Security. They like Medicare.
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๊ทธ๋“ค์€ ์‚ฌํšŒ ๋ณด์žฅ ์ œ๋„์™€ ์˜๋ฃŒ ๋ณดํ—˜์„ ์ข‹์•„ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
08:11
They even like Medicaid, even though that goes to the poor and indigent,
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์‹ฌ์ง€์–ด ๋ฏธ๊ตญ์ธ๋“ค์€ ๊ฐ€๋‚œํ•˜๊ณ  ๊ถํ•ํ•œ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์ด ์ฃผ๋กœ ํ˜œํƒ์„ ๋ณด์•„์„œ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์˜ ์ง€์ง€๊ฐ€ ์ ์„ ๊ฒƒ ๊ฐ™์€
08:14
which you might think would have less support.
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์˜๋ฃŒ ๋ณด์กฐ๋„ ์ข‹์•„ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค,
08:17
And they do not want it fundamentally touched,
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ๊ทธ๋“ค์€ ์ด๊ฒƒ์ด ๊ทผ๋ณธ์ ์œผ๋กœ ๋ณ€ํ™”๋˜๋Š”๊ฒƒ์„ ์›ํ•˜์ง€ ์•Š์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
08:20
although the American people are remarkably comfortable,
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๋ฏธ๊ตญ์ธ๋“ค์€ ๋†€๋ž„ ์ •๋„๋กœ ๋งŒ์กฑํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ
08:25
and Democrats roughly equal to Republicans,
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๋ฏผ์ฃผ๋‹น๊ณผ ๊ณตํ™”๋‹น์€
08:28
with some minor tweaks to make the system more stable.
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์ด ์‹œ์Šคํ…œ์„ ๋” ์•ˆ์ •์ ์œผ๋กœ ๋งŒ๋“ค๊ธฐ ์œ„ํ•ด ์ž‘์€ ๋ณ€ํ™”๋ฅผ ์ฃผ๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์— ์ฐฌ์„ฑํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
08:32
Social Security is fairly easy to fix.
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์‚ฌํšŒ ๋ณด์žฅ ๋ฌธ์ œ๋ฅผ ํ•ด๊ฒฐ ํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์€ ๊ฝค ์‰ฝ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
08:35
The rumors of its demise are always greatly exaggerated.
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์‚ฌํšŒ ๋ณด์žฅ ์ œ๋„์˜ ์•ˆ์ข‹์€ ๊ฒฐ๋ง์— ๊ด€ํ•œ ์†Œ๋ฌธ์€ ์–ธ์ œ๋‚˜ ๊ณผ์žฅ๋˜์–ด ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
08:39
So gradually raise Social Security retirement age,
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์ด์ œ๋ถ€ํ„ฐ ํƒœ์–ด๋‚  ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์— ๋Œ€ํ•ด์„œ
08:41
maybe only on people not yet born.
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์€ํ‡ด ์—ฐ๋ น์„ ์ ์ฐจ ์˜ฌ๋ฆฌ๋Š”๊ฒƒ์— ๋Œ€ํ•ด
08:44
Americans are about 50/50,
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๋ฏธ๊ตญ์ธ๋“ค์€ 50 ๋Œ€ 50์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
08:46
whether they're Democrats or Republicans.
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๋ฏผ์ฃผ๋‹น์ด๊ฑด ๊ณตํ™”๋‹น์ด๊ฑด ๋ง์ด์ฃ .
08:48
Reduce Medicare for very wealthy seniors,
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๋ˆ์ด ๋งŽ์€ ๋…ธ์ธ๋“ค์—๊ฒŒ ์˜๋ฃŒ ๋ณดํ—˜ ํ˜œํƒ์„
08:50
seniors who make a lot of money. Don't even eliminate it. Just reduce it.
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์ถ•์†Œํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์— ๋Œ€ํ•ด์„œ๋Š”
08:54
People generally are comfortable with it, Democrats and Republicans.
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์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค๊ณผ ๋ฏผ์ฃผ๋‹น๊ณผ ๊ณตํ™”๋‹น ๋ชจ๋‘ ๋Œ€๋ถ€๋ถ„ ์ฐฌ์„ฑํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
08:59
Raise medical health care contributions?
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์˜๋ฃŒ ๊ฑด๊ฐ• ๋ณดํ—˜๋ฃŒ๋ฅผ ์ธ์ƒํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์€์š”?
09:01
Everyone hates that equally, but Republicans
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์ด๊ฒƒ์€ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค ๋ชจ๋‘๊ฐ€ ์‹ซ์–ดํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
09:03
and Democrats hate that together.
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๊ณตํ™”๋‹น๊ณผ ๋ฏผ์ฃผ๋‹น ๋ชจ๋‘ ์ด๊ฒƒ์€ ์‹ซ์–ดํ•˜์ฃ .
09:06
And so what this tells me is, when you look at
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์ด๊ฒƒ์€ ์ œ๊ฒŒ ์ด๋Ÿฐ ์ƒ๊ฐ์„ ํ•˜๊ฒŒ ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
09:09
the discussion of how to resolve our fiscal problems,
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์žฌ์ • ์ ˆ๋ฒฝ ๋ฌธ์ œ๋ฅผ ์–ด๋–ป๊ฒŒ ํ•ด๊ฒฐํ•  ๊ฒƒ์ธ๊ฐ€์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ๋…ผ์˜๋ฅผ ๋ณด๋ฉด
09:13
we are not a nation that's powerfully divided on the major, major issue.
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ์ฃผ์š” ๋ฌธ์ œ์— ๋Œ€ํ•ด ์™„์ „ํžˆ ๋‚˜๋ˆ„์–ด์ ธ ์žˆ๋Š” ๋‚˜๋ผ๊ฐ€ ์•„๋‹™๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
09:20
We're comfortable with it needing some tweaks, but we want to keep it.
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๊ทธ๊ฒƒ์— ์กฐ๊ทธ๋งŒ ๋ณ€ํ™”๋ฅผ ์ฃผ๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์—๋Š” ์ฐฌ์„ฑํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ๊ทธ๊ฒƒ์„ ๊ทธ๋Œ€๋กœ ๋‘๊ณ  ์‹ถ์–ดํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
09:24
We're not open to a discussion of eliminating it.
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๊ทธ๊ฒƒ์„ ์™„์ „ํžˆ ์—†์• ๋ฒ„๋ฆฌ์ž๋Š” ๋…ผ์˜๋Š” ํ•˜์ง€ ์•Š์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
09:26
Now there is one issue that is hyper-partisan,
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์ž, ์—ฌ๊ธฐ์— ์•„์ฃผ ์ •์น˜์ ์œผ๋กœ ํŽธํ–ฅ๋˜์–ด ์žˆ๋Š” ๋ฌธ์ œ๊ฐ€ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
09:31
and where there is one party that is just spend, spend, spend,
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ํ•œ ์ •๋‹น์€ ๊ณ„์† ์ง€์ถœํ•˜๋ผ๊ณ  ์ง€์ถœํ•˜๋ผ๊ณ ,
09:34
we don't care, spend some more,
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๋” ์ง€์ถœ, ์ง€์ถœ, ์ง€์ถœ ํ•˜๋ผ๊ณ  ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
09:36
and that of course is Republicans
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๋ฌผ๋ก  ๊ทธ ์ •๋‹น์€ ๊ณตํ™”๋‹น์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
09:38
when it comes to military defense spending.
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๊ตญ๋ฐฉ ์ง€์ถœ์— ๊ด€ํ•œ ๋ฌธ์ œ์—์„œ
09:40
They way outweigh Democrats.
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๊ทธ๋“ค์€ ๋ฏผ์ฃผ๋‹น์„ ํ›จ์”ฌ ๋Šฅ๊ฐ€ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
09:43
The vast majority want to protect military defense spending.
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๊ทธ๋“ค ๋Œ€๋ถ€๋ถ„์€ ๊ตญ๋ฐฉ ์ง€์ถœ์„ ๋ณด์ „ํ•˜๋ ค ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
09:47
That's 20 percent of the budget,
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๊ทธ๊ฑด ์˜ˆ์‚ฐ์˜ 20% ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
09:50
and that presents a more difficult issue.
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์ด๊ฒƒ์€ ๋” ์–ด๋ ค์šด ๋ฌธ์ œ๋ฅผ ์šฐ๋ฆฌ์—๊ฒŒ ์•ˆ๊ฒจ์ค๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
09:53
I should also note that the [discretionary] spending,
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์ œ๊ฐ€ ํ•œ๊ฐ€์ง€ ๋” ๋ง์”€๋“œ๋ ค์•ผ ํ•  ๊ฒƒ์€
09:56
which is about 19 percent of the budget,
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์˜ˆ์‚ฐ์˜ ์•ฝ 19%๋ฅผ ์ฐจ์ง€ํ•˜๋Š” ๊ธฐํƒ€์˜ ์žฌ๋Ÿ‰ ์ง€์ถœ์€
09:58
that is Democratic and Republican issues,
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๋ฏผ์ฃผ๋‹น๊ณผ ๊ณตํ™”๋‹น ๋ชจ๋‘์˜ ์ผ์ด๋ผ๋Š” ์ ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
10:01
so you do have welfare, food stamps, other programs
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๊ทธ๋Ÿฌ๋‹ˆ๊นŒ ์žฌ๋Ÿ‰ ์ง€์ถœ์—๋Š” ๋ณต์ง€, ์‹๋ฃŒํ’ˆ ํ• ์ธ ๊ตฌ๋งค๊ถŒ ๋“ฑ
10:03
that tend to be popular among Democrats,
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๋ฏผ์ฃผ๋‹น์›์—๊ฒŒ ์ธ๊ธฐ๊ฐ€ ๋งŽ์•˜๋˜ ํ”„๋กœ๊ทธ๋žจ๋“ค๋„ ์žˆ์ง€๋งŒ
10:05
but you also have the farm bill and all sorts of Department of Interior
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๋†์—…๋ฒ•์ด๋‚˜ ๋‚ด๋ฌด์„ฑ์—์„œ
10:08
inducements for oil drilling and other things,
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์„์œ  ์‹œ์ถ”๋ฅผ ์œ ๋„ํ•˜๊ธฐ ์œ„ํ•ด ํ•˜๋Š” ์ผ์ฒ˜๋Ÿผ
10:11
which tend to be popular among Republicans.
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๊ณตํ™”๋‹น์—๊ฒŒ ์ธ๊ธฐ๊ฐ€ ๋งŽ์€ ์ •์ฑ…๋“ค๋„ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
10:15
Now when it comes to taxes, there is more disagreement.
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์„ธ๊ธˆ์— ๊ด€ํ•ด์„œ๋Š” ์˜๊ฒฌ์ด ๋” ๋งŽ์ด ๊ฐˆ๋ฆฝ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
10:18
That's a more partisan area.
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๋” ๋‹นํŒŒ์ ์ธ ์ด์•ผ๊ธฐ์ด์ง€์š”.
10:20
You have Democrats overwhelmingly supportive
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๋ฏผ์ฃผ๋‹น์€ ์—ฐ๊ฐ„ ์†Œ๋“์ด 25๋งŒ๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ(์•ฝ 2์–ต 5์ฒœ๋งŒ์›)๊ฐ€ ๋„˜๋Š” ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์˜
10:23
of raising the income tax on people who make 250,000 dollars a year,
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์†Œ๋“์„ธ๋ฅผ ์ธ์ƒํ•˜๋Š”๋ฐ ์ง€๋‚˜์น˜๊ฒŒ ์ ๊ทน์ ์ด๊ณ 
10:27
Republicans sort of against it, although if you break it out by income,
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๊ณตํ™”๋‹น์›๋“ค์€ ๋ฐ˜๋Œ€ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๋ฌผ๋ก , ๊ณตํ™”๋‹น์›๋“ค์„ ์†Œ๋“๋ณ„๋กœ ๋‚˜๋ˆ„์–ด ๋ณด๋ฉด
10:32
Republicans who make less than 75,000 dollars a year like this idea.
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์—ฐ๊ฐ„ ์†Œ๋“์ด 75,000๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ(7์ฒœ 5๋ฐฑ๋งŒ์›)์ดํ•˜์ธ ๊ณตํ™”๋‹น์›๋“ค์€ ์ด ์ •์ฑ…์— ์ฐฌ์„ฑํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
10:37
So basically Republicans who make more than 250,000 dollars a year don't want to be taxed.
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๊ธฐ๋ณธ์ ์œผ๋กœ ์ผ๋…„์— 25๋งŒ๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ(์•ฝ 2์–ต 5์ฒœ ๋งŒ์›)์ด์ƒ์„ ๋ฒ„๋Š” ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์€ ์„ธ๊ธˆ์„ ๋” ๋‚ด๊ณ  ์‹ถ์ง€ ์•Š์€ ๊ฒƒ์ด์ง€์š”.
10:42
Raising taxes on investment income, you also see
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ํˆฌ์ž ์ˆ˜์ž…์— ์„ธ๊ธˆ์„ ๋งค๊ธฐ๋Š” ๊ฒƒ ์—ญ์‹œ
10:45
about two thirds of Democrats but only one third of Republicans
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์•ฝ 2/3 ์ •๋„์˜ ๋ฏผ์ฃผ๋‹น์›๋“ค์€ ์ฐฌ์„ฑํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ
10:48
are comfortable with that idea.
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๊ณตํ™”๋‹น์›๋“ค์€ 1/3 ์ •๋„๋งŒ ์ฐฌ์„ฑํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
10:51
This brings up a really important point, which is that
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์ด๊ฒƒ์€ ์šฐ๋ฆฌ์—๊ฒŒ ์ค‘์š”ํ•œ ์ ์„ ์‹œ์‚ฌํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
10:54
we tend in this country to talk about Democrats
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ๋ฏธ๊ตญ์ด๋ผ๋Š” ๋‚˜๋ผ๊ฐ€
10:57
and Republicans and think there's this little group
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๋ฏผ์ฃผ๋‹น๊ณผ ๊ณตํ™”๋‹น์œผ๋กœ ์ด๋ฃจ์–ด์ ธ ์žˆ๊ณ  ๊ทธ ์‚ฌ์ด์—
10:59
over there called independents that's, what, two percent?
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2% ์ •๋„ ๋˜๋Š” ๋ฌด์†Œ์† ๊ทธ๋ฃน์ด ์žˆ๋‹ค๊ณ  ์ƒ๊ฐํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
11:01
If you add Democrats, you add Republicans,
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๋ฏผ์ฃผ๋‹น์›๊ณผ ๊ณตํ™”๋‹น์›์ด
11:03
you've got the American people.
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๋ฏธ๊ตญ ๊ตญ๋ฏผ ์ „์ฒด๋ฅผ ์–‘๋ถ„ํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ๋‹ค๊ณ  ์ƒ๊ฐํ•˜์ง€์š”.
11:05
But that is not the case at all.
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ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ ๊ทธ๊ฒƒ์€ ์‚ฌ์‹ค์ด ์•„๋‹™๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
11:08
And it has not been the case for most of modern American history.
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ๋Œ€๋ถ€๋ถ„์˜ ํ˜„๋Œ€ ๋ฏธ๊ตญ ์—ญ์‚ฌ์—์„œ๋„ ์ด๊ฒƒ์€ ์‚ฌ์‹ค์ด ์•„๋‹ˆ์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
11:13
Roughly a third of Americans say that they are Democrats.
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๋Œ€๋žต 3๋ถ„์˜ 1์ •๋„์˜ ๋ฏธ๊ตญ์ธ์ด ๋ฏผ์ฃผ๋‹น์„ ์ง€์ง€ํ•œ๋‹ค๊ณ  ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
11:17
Around a quarter say that they are Republicans.
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4๋ถ„์˜ 1์ •๋„์˜ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์€ ๊ณตํ™”๋‹น์„ ์ง€์ง€ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
11:20
A tiny little sliver call themselves libertarians, or socialists,
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์†Œ์ˆ˜์˜ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์€ ์ž์‹ ์„ ์ž์œ ์ฃผ์˜์ž๋‚˜ ์‚ฌํšŒ์ฃผ์˜์ž ํ˜น์€
11:24
or some other small third party,
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์ œ 3์ •๋‹น์˜ ์ง€์ง€์ž๋ผ๊ณ  ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
11:27
and the largest block, 40 percent, say they're independents.
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ๊ฐ€์žฅ ๋งŽ์€ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค, 40% ์ •๋„๋Š”, ์ง€์ง€ํ•˜๋Š” ์ •๋‹น์ด ์—†๋‹ค๊ณ  ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
11:32
So most Americans are not partisan,
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๊ทธ๋Ÿฌ๋‹ˆ๊นŒ ๋Œ€๋ถ€๋ถ„์˜ ๋ฏธ๊ตญ์ธ๋“ค์€ ์ •์น˜์ ์œผ๋กœ ํŽธํ–ฅ๋˜์ง€ ์•Š์€ ๊ฒƒ์ด์ง€์š”.
11:35
and most of the people in the independent camp
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์ด๋“ค ๋Œ€๋ถ€๋ถ„์€ ์–‘ ๊ทน๋‹จ ์‚ฌ์ด ์–ด๋”˜๊ฐ€์— ์กด์žฌํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
11:37
fall somewhere in between, so even though we have
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๊ทธ๋Ÿฌ๋‹ˆ๊นŒ ์žฌ์ • ์ ˆ๋ฒฝ์— ๊ด€ํ•œ ๊ฒฌํ•ด์—์„œ
11:41
tremendous overlap between the views on these fiscal issues
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๋ฏผ์ฃผ๋‹น๊ณผ ๊ณตํ™”๋‹น์€ ๊ณตํ†ต๋œ ๊ฒฌํ•ด๋ฅผ ๋งŽ์ด
11:44
of Democrats and Republicans,
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๊ฐ€์ง€๊ณ  ์žˆ์ง€๋งŒ,
11:47
we have even more overlap when you add in the independents.
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ๋ฌด์†Œ์†์„ ์ถ”๊ฐ€ํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒฝ์šฐ์—๋Š” ๋” ๋งŽ์€ ์˜๊ฒฌ ์ผ์น˜๋ฅผ ๋ณผ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
11:50
Now we get to fight about all sorts of other issues.
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๊ทธ๋Ÿผ ์ด์ œ ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ๋‹ค๋ฅธ ๋ฌธ์ œ์—์„œ ์˜๊ฒฌ์ด ๊ฐˆ๋ฆฌ๊ฒŒ ๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
11:54
We get to hate each other on gun control
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์ด๊ธฐ ๊ทœ์ œ๋‚˜
11:56
and abortion and the environment,
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๋‚™ํƒœ์™€ ํ™˜๊ฒฝ๋ฌธ์ œ ๊ฐ™์€ ์ด์Šˆ์—์„œ ๋ง์ด์ง€์š”.
11:58
but on these fiscal issues, these important fiscal issues,
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๊ทธ๋Ÿฌ๋‚˜ ์ด๋ ‡๊ฒŒ ์ค‘์š”ํ•œ ์žฌ์ • ๋ฌธ์ œ์— ๋Œ€ํ•ด์„œ๋Š”
12:01
we just are not anywhere nearly as divided as people say.
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์ด ์ƒ๊ฐํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ ์ฒ˜๋Ÿผ ํฌ๊ฒŒ ๋‚˜๋‰˜์–ด ์žˆ์ง€ ์•Š์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
12:05
And in fact, there's this other group of people
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์‚ฌ์‹ค, ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์ด ์ƒ๊ฐํ•˜๋Š”๊ฒƒ ์ฒ˜๋Ÿผ
12:07
who are not as divided as people might think,
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ํŒŒ๊ฐ€ ๊ฐˆ๋ ค์žˆ์ง€ ์•Š์€ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์ด ๋˜ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
12:10
and that group is economists.
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๊ทธ๋“ค์€ ๋ฐ”๋กœ ๊ฒฝ์ œํ•™์ž๋“ค์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
12:12
I talk to a lot of economists, and back in the '70s
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๋งŽ์€ ๊ฒฝ์ œํ•™์ž๋“ค๊ณผ ์ด์•ผ๊ธฐํ•ด ๋ณด๋ฉด,
12:17
and '80s it was ugly being an economist.
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70๋…„๋Œ€์™€ 80๋…„๋Œ€์— ๊ฒฝ์ œํ•™์ž๋กœ ์‚ฌ๋Š”๊ฒƒ์€ ์ถ”์•…ํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
12:21
You were in what they called the saltwater camp,
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๊ทธ๋“ค์€ ์ง ๋ฌผ ๊ฒฝ์ œํ•™ํŒŒ์ธ
12:24
meaning Harvard, Princeton, MIT, Stanford, Berkeley,
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ํ•˜๋ฒ„๋“œ, ํ”„๋ฆฐ์Šคํ„ด, MIT, ์Šคํƒ ํฌ๋“œ, ๋ฒ„ํด๋ฆฌ์— ์†ํ•ด ์žˆ๊ฑฐ๋‚˜,
12:28
or you were in the freshwater camp, University of Chicago,
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ํ˜น์€ ์‹œ์นด๊ณ ๋Œ€ํ•™๊ต, ๋กœ์ฒด์Šคํ„ฐ๋Œ€ํ•™ ๊ฐ™์€
12:31
University of Rochester.
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๋ฏผ๋ฌผ ๊ฒฝ์ œํ•™ํŒŒ์— ์†ํ•ด ์žˆ์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
12:33
You were a free market capitalist economist
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๊ทธ๋“ค์€ ์ž์œ  ์‹œ์žฅ ์ž๋ณธ์ฃผ์˜์ž๋“ค์ด๊ฑฐ๋‚˜
12:36
or you were a Keynesian liberal economist,
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์ผ€์ธ์ฆˆ์  ์ž์œ ์ฃผ์˜ ๊ฒฝ์ œํ•™์ž์˜€์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
12:38
and these people didn't go to each other's weddings,
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์ด๋“ค์€ ์„œ๋กœ์˜ ๊ฒฐํ˜ผ์‹์— ๊ฐ€์ง€ ์•Š์•˜๊ณ 
12:40
they snubbed each other at conferences.
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ํšŒ์˜์—์„œ ์„œ๋กœ๋ฅผ ๋ชจ์š•ํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
12:42
It's still ugly to this day, but in my experience,
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์ด๊ฒƒ์€ ์•„์ง๋„ ์กฐ๊ธˆ ๊ทธ๋Ÿฐ ๊ฒฝํ–ฅ์ด ์žˆ์ง€๋งŒ, ์ œ ๊ฒฝํ—˜์— ์˜ํ•˜๋ฉด
12:45
it is really, really hard to find an economist under 40
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๊ทธ๋Ÿฐ ๋ฐฉ์‹์œผ๋กœ ์„ธ๊ณ„๋ฅผ ๋ฐ”๋ผ๋ณด๋Š” ์‹œ๊ฐ์„ ๊ฐ€์ง„
12:49
who still has that kind of way of seeing the world.
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40์„ธ ์ดํ•˜์˜ ๊ฒฝ์ œํ•™์ž๋ฅผ ์ฐพ๊ธฐ๋ž€ ์‰ฝ์ง€ ์•Š์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
12:53
The vast majority of economists -- it is so uncool
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๊ทธ๋“ค ๋Œ€๋ถ€๋ถ„์—๊ฒŒ๋Š” ์ž์‹ ์ด ํŠน์ • ์ด๋… ์ง‘๋‹จ์—
12:56
to call yourself an ideologue of either camp.
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์†ํ•ด์žˆ๋‹ค๊ณ  ๋งํ•˜๋Š”๊ฒƒ์ด ๋ฉ‹์ง€์ง€ ์•Š๋‹ค๊ณ  ์ƒ๊ฐํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
12:58
The phrase that you want, if you're a graduate student
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๊ทธ๋“ค์ด ๋Œ€ํ•™์›์ƒ์ด๋“ , ์—ฐ๊ตฌ์›์ด๋“ ,
13:01
or a postdoc or you're a professor,
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38์‚ด์˜ ๊ฒฝ์ œํ•™ ๊ต์ˆ˜์ด๊ฑด,
13:03
a 38-year-old economics professor, is, "I'm an empiricist.
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"์ €๋Š” ๊ฒฝํ—˜์ฃผ์˜์ž์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์ €๋Š” ์ •๋ณด์— ์˜ํ•ด ์›€์ง์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค"
13:06
I go by the data."
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๋ผ๊ณ  ๋งํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์„ ์ข‹์•„ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
13:08
And the data is very clear.
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์ •๋ณด๋Š” ๋งค์šฐ ๋ช…ํ™•ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
13:10
None of these major theories have been completely successful.
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์˜ˆ์ „์˜ ๋‘ ์ด๋ก  ๋ชจ๋‘ ์™„์ „ํžˆ ์„ฑ๊ณต์ ์ด์ง€๋Š” ์•Š์•˜์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
13:14
The 20th century, the last hundred years,
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20์„ธ๊ธฐ, ์ฆ‰, ์ง€๋‚œ 100๋…„์€
13:16
is riddled with disastrous examples
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ํ•œ ํ•™ํŒŒ๊ฐ€ ๊ณผ๊ฑฐ๋ฅผ ์„ค๋ช…ํ•˜๊ฑฐ๋‚˜
13:19
of times that one school or the other tried to explain
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๋ฏธ๋ž˜๋ฅผ ์˜ˆ์ธกํ•˜๋ ค๋‹ค๊ฐ€
13:23
the past or predict the future
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์‹คํŒจํ•œ ์˜ˆ๋“ค๋กœ
13:25
and just did an awful, awful job,
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๊ฐ€๋“ ์ฐจ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
13:27
so the economics profession has acquired some degree of modesty.
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๊ทธ๋ž˜์„œ ๊ฒฝ์ œํ•™์ž๋“ค์€ ์–ด๋Š์ •๋„ ๊ฒธ์†ํ•ด์กŒ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
13:32
They still are an awfully arrogant group of people, I will assure you,
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๊ทธ๋“ค์€ ์—ฌ์ „ํžˆ ๋”์ฐํžˆ ์ฝง๋Œ€๊ฐ€ ๋†’์€ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์ด์ง€๋งŒ
13:36
but they're now arrogant about their impartiality,
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์ด์ œ ๊ทธ๋“ค์€ ์ž์‹ ์˜ ๊ณตํ‰์„ฑ์— ๋Œ€ํ•ด ์ž๋ถ€์‹ฌ์„ ๋Š๋‚๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
13:38
and they, too, see a tremendous range of potential outcomes.
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ๊ทธ๋“ค๋„ ์—ญ์‹œ ๋งค์šฐ ํฐ ์ž ์žฌ์  ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ์— ๋Œ€ํ•ด ์˜ˆ์ƒํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
13:45
And this nonpartisanship is something that exists,
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์ด๋ ‡๊ฒŒ ์ •์น˜์ ์œผ๋กœ ํŽธํ–ฅ๋˜์ง€ ์•Š์€ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์€ ์กด์žฌํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
13:50
that has existed in secret
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๊ธด ์‹œ๊ฐ„๋™์•ˆ ๊ทธ๋“ค์€
13:52
in America for years and years and years.
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๋ฏธ๊ตญ์—์„œ ๋น„๋ฐ€์Šค๋Ÿฝ๊ฒŒ ์กด์žฌํ•ด ์™”์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
13:54
I've spent a lot of the fall talking to the three major
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์ €๋Š” ๋ฏธ๊ตญ์ธ๋“ค์˜ ์ •์น˜์  ํƒœ๋„๋ฅผ ์กฐ์‚ฌํ•˜๋Š”
13:58
organizations that survey American political attitudes:
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์„ธ๊ฐœ์˜ ์ฃผ์š” ๊ธฐ๊ด€๋“ค๊ณผ ๋Œ€ํ™”ํ•˜๋ฉฐ ๋งŽ์€ ์‹œ๊ฐ„์„ ๋ณด๋ƒˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
14:02
Pew Research,
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"ํ“จ ๋ฆฌ์„œ์น˜"(Pew Research),
14:03
the University of Chicago's National Opinion Research Center,
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์‹œ์นด๊ณ  ๋Œ€ํ•™์˜ "๊ตญ๊ฐ€ ์˜๊ฒฌ ์—ฐ๊ตฌ ์„ผํ„ฐ",
14:07
and the most important but the least known
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ๊ฐ€์žฅ ์ค‘์š”ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ ๊ฐ€์žฅ ๋œ ์•Œ๋ ค์ง„
14:10
is the American National Election Studies group
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"๋ฏธ๊ตญ ์ „๊ตญ ์„ ๊ฑฐ ์—ฐ๊ตฌ" ๊ทธ๋ฃน์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
14:13
that is the world's longest, most respected poll of political attitudes.
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๊ทธ๊ฒƒ์€ ์„ธ๊ณ„์—์„œ ๊ฐ€์žฅ ์˜ค๋ž˜ ๋๊ณ  ๊ฐ€์žฅ ๊ถŒ์œ„์žˆ๋Š” ์ •์น˜์  ํƒœ๋„ ์กฐ์‚ฌ ๋‹จ์ฒด์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
14:17
They've been doing it since 1948,
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๊ทธ๋“ค์€ ์ด ์ผ์„ 1948๋…„๋ถ€ํ„ฐ ํ•ด ์™”์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
14:19
and what they show consistently throughout
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ๊ทธ๋“ค์ด ์ผ๊ด€๋˜๊ฒŒ ์ฐพ์€ ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ๋Š” ๋ฐ”๋กœ
14:23
is that it's almost impossible to find Americans
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์ด๋…์ ์œผ๋กœ ํŽธํ–ฅ๋œ ๋ฏธ๊ตญ์ธ๋“ค์„
14:27
who are consistent ideologically,
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์ฐพ๊ธฐ๊ฐ€ ์–ด๋ ต๋‹ค๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
14:30
who consistently support, "No we mustn't tax,
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์˜ˆ๋ฅผ๋“ค์–ด, ์„ธ๊ธˆ์„ ๊ฑท์œผ๋ฉด ์•ˆ๋œ๋‹ค๊ณ ๋งŒ ๊ณ„์† ์ฃผ์žฅํ•˜๊ฑฐ๋‚˜
14:34
and we must limit the size of government,"
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์ •๋ถ€์˜ ์—ญํ• ์„ ์ œํ•œํ•ด์•ผ ํ•œ๋‹ค๊ณ  ํ•˜๋Š” ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์ด๋‚˜
14:37
or, "No, we must encourage government to play a larger role
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์ •๋ถ€๊ฐ€ ๋ถ€์˜ ์žฌ๋ถ„๋ฐฐ์™€ ์ž๋ณธ์ฃผ์˜์˜ ๋‹จ์ ์„ ๋ณด์™„ํ•˜๋Š” ์—ญํ• ์„
14:40
in redistribution and correcting the ills of capitalism."
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ํ•ด์•ผ ํ•œ๋‹ค๊ณ ๋งŒ ๊ณ„์† ์ฃผ์žฅํ•˜๋Š” ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค ๋ง์ด์ง€์š”.
14:44
Those groups are very, very small.
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์ด๋Ÿฐ ๋ถ€๋ฅ˜์˜ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์€ ๋งค์šฐ ์†Œ์ˆ˜์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
14:46
The vast majority of people, they pick and choose,
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๋Œ€๋ถ€๋ถ„์˜ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์€ ์„ ํƒ์„ ํ•˜๊ณ 
14:49
they see compromise and they change over time
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ํƒ€ํ˜‘ํ•˜๊ณ  ๋” ๋‚˜์€ ์˜๊ฒฌ์„ ๋“ค์„ ๋•Œ๋งˆ๋‹ค
14:52
when they hear a better argument or a worse argument.
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๊ณ„์† ์ •์น˜์  ํƒœ๋„๋ฅผ ๋ฐ”๊ฟ‰๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
14:54
And that part of it has not changed.
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์ด๊ฒƒ์€ ๋ณ€ํ•˜์ง€ ์•Š์•˜์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
14:58
What has changed is how people respond to vague questions.
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๋ณ€ํ™”ํ•œ ๊ฒƒ์€ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์ด ๋ง‰์—ฐํ•œ ์งˆ๋ฌธ์— ๋Œ€๋‹ตํ•˜๋Š” ๋ฐฉ์‹์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
15:02
If you ask people vague questions, like,
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๋งŒ์•ฝ ๋‹น์‹ ์ด ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์—๊ฒŒ ๋ง‰์—ฐํ•œ ์งˆ๋ฌธ์„ ํ•˜๋ฉด, ์˜ˆ๋ฅผ ๋“ค์–ด,
15:04
"Do you think there should be more government or less government?"
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"๋‹น์‹ ์€ ์ •๋ถ€์˜ ์—ญํ• ์ด ํ™•๋Œ€๋˜์•ผ ํ•œ๋‹ค๊ณ  ์ƒ๊ฐํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๊นŒ, ์•„๋‹ˆ๋ฉด ์ถ•์†Œ๋˜์–ด์•ผ ํ•œ๋‹ค๊ณ  ์ƒ๊ฐํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๊นŒ?"๋ผ๋Š” ์งˆ๋ฌธ์ด๋‚˜
15:07
"Do you think government should" โ€” especially if you use loaded language --
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ํŠนํžˆ ์˜๋„๋œ ์งˆ๋ฌธ๋“ค, ์˜ˆ๋ฅผ ๋“ค๋ฉด
15:11
"Do you think the government should provide handouts?"
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"๋‹น์‹ ์€ ์ •๋ถ€๊ฐ€ ์ง€์›๊ธˆ์„ ์ค˜์•ผํ•œ๋‹ค๊ณ  ์ƒ๊ฐ ํ•˜์‹ญ๋‹ˆ๊นŒ?"
15:14
Or, "Do you think the government should redistribute?"
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"๋‹น์‹ ์€ ์ •๋ถ€๊ฐ€ ์žฌ๋ถ„๋ฐฐ๋ฅผ ํ•ด์•ผ ํ•œ๋‹ค๊ณ  ์ƒ๊ฐํ•˜์‹ญ๋‹ˆ๊นŒ?" ์ด๋Ÿฐ ์งˆ๋ฌธ๋“ค์—์š”.
15:16
Then you can see radical partisan change.
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๊ทธ๋Ÿฌ๋ฉด ๊ธ‰์ง„์ ์ธ ๋‹นํŒŒ์˜ ๋ณ€ํ™”๋ฅผ ๋ณผ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค..
15:18
But when you get specific, when you actually ask
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๊ทธ๋Ÿฌ๋‚˜ ์งˆ๋ฌธ์ด ๋” ๊ตฌ์ฒด์ ์ด๋ฉด, ์˜ˆ๋ฅผ ๋“ค์–ด
15:21
about the actual taxing and spending issues under consideration,
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์‹ค์ œ ์ ์šฉ์„ ๊ณ ๋ คํ•œ ์„ธ๊ธˆ ๋ถ€๊ณผ์™€ ์ง€์ถœ์— ๊ด€ํ•œ ์งˆ๋ฌธ์„ ํ•˜๋ฉด
15:25
people are remarkably centrist,
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์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์€ ๋ˆˆ์— ๋„๊ฒŒ ์ค‘๋„๊ฐ€ ๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
15:28
they're remarkably open to compromise.
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๊ทธ๋“ค์€ ํƒ€ํ˜‘์„ ์ž˜ ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
15:31
So what we have, then, when you think about the fiscal cliff,
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์ž, ๊ทธ๋Ÿฌ๋ฉด, ์žฌ์ • ์ ˆ๋ฒฝ์— ๋Œ€ํ•ด ์ƒ๊ฐํ• ๋•Œ,
15:34
don't think of it as the American people fundamentally
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์„œ๋กœ์˜ ์˜๊ฒฌ์„ ์ˆ˜์šฉํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์—†๋Š”
15:39
can't stand each other on these issues
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๋ฏธ๊ตญ์ธ๋“ค์„ ๋– ์˜ฌ๋ฆฌ๊ณ 
15:41
and that we must be ripped apart
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ๋‘๊ฐœ์˜ ๋‚˜๋ผ๋กœ ๊ฐˆ๋ผ์„œ์„œ
15:43
into two separate warring nations.
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์ „์Ÿ์„ ํ•ด์•ผ ํ•œ๋‹ค๊ณ  ์ƒ๊ฐํ•˜์ง€ ๋งˆ์‹ญ์‹œ์˜ค.
15:45
Think of it as a tiny, tiny number of ancient economists
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๊ทนํžˆ ์†Œ์ˆ˜์˜ ์˜› ๊ฒฝ์ œํ•™์ž๋“ค๊ณผ
15:51
and misrepresentative ideologues have captured the process.
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์ž˜๋ชป ์ „๋‹ฌ๋œ ์ด๋…๋“ค์ด ์ด๋Ÿฐ ์ผ์„ ๋ฐœ์ƒ์‹œ์ผฐ๋‹ค๊ณ  ์ƒ๊ฐํ•˜์‹ญ์‹œ์˜ค.
15:55
And they've captured the process through familiar ways,
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ๊ทธ๋“ค์€ ์นœ์ˆ™ํ•œ ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•์„ ํ†ตํ•ด ๊ณผ์ •์„ ์•Œ์•„๋ƒˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
15:57
through a primary system which encourages
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์†Œ์ˆ˜์˜ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์˜ ์˜๊ฒฌ์„
16:00
that small group of people's voices,
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์ค‘์š”์‹œํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์„ ํ†ตํ•ด ๋ง์ด์ง€์š”.
16:03
because that small group of people,
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์™œ๋ƒํ•˜๋ฉด ๋ชจ๋“  ์ด๋…์  ์งˆ๋ฌธ์— ๋˜‘๊ฐ™์€ ๋‹ต์„ ํ•˜๋Š”
16:05
the people who answer all yeses or all noes
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๊ทธ ์†Œ์ˆ˜์˜ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์€,
16:08
on those ideological questions,
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๋งค์šฐ ์ ์„ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์ง€๋งŒ
16:10
they might be small but every one of them has a blog,
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๊ทธ๋“ค์€ ๋ชจ๋‘ ๋ธ”๋กœ๊ทธ๋ฅผ ๊ฐ€์ง€๊ณ  ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
16:13
every one of them has been on Fox or MSNBC in the last week.
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๊ทธ๋“ค์€ ๋ชจ๋‘ ๋‰ด์Šค๋ฅผ ๋ณด๊ณ  ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
16:16
Every one of them becomes a louder and louder voice,
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๊ทธ๋“ค์€ ์ ์  ๋” ๋ชฉ์†Œ๋ฆฌ๋ฅผ ํ‚ค์›Œ๊ฐ€๊ณ  ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
16:20
but they don't represent us.
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ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ ๊ทธ๋“ค์€ ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋ฅผ ๋Œ€ํ‘œํ•˜์ง€ ์•Š์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
16:22
They don't represent what our views are.
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๊ทธ๋“ค์€ ์šฐ๋ฆฌ์˜ ๊ฒฌํ•ด๊ฐ€ ๋ฌด์—‡์ธ์ง€ ๋Œ€ํ‘œํ•˜์ง€ ์•Š์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
16:25
And that gets me back to the dollar,
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์ด๊ฒƒ์€ ๋‹ค์‹œ ๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ์— ๊ด€ํ•œ ๋ฌธ์ œ๋กœ ๋Œ์•„๊ฐ‘๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
16:27
and it gets me back to reminding myself that
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์ด๊ฒƒ์€ ์ €์—๊ฒŒ ์ด๋Ÿฐ ์‚ฌ์‹ค์„ ์ƒ๊ธฐ์‹œ์ผœ ์ค๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
16:30
we know this experience.
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ์ด๊ฒƒ์„ ์ด๋ฏธ ๊ฒฝํ—˜ํ–ˆ์–ด์š”
16:32
We know what it's like
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” TV์—์„œ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์ด,
16:34
to have these people on TV, in Congress,
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์˜ํšŒ์—์„œ ๊ทธ๋“ค์˜ ์˜๊ฒฌ์„ ๋ฐ›์•„๋“ค์ด์ง€ ์•Š์œผ๋ฉด
16:39
yelling about how the end of the world is coming
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๋‚˜๋ผ๊ฐ€ ๋งํ•ด๋ฒ„๋ฆด ๊ฒƒ์ด๋ผ๊ณ 
16:42
if we don't adopt their view completely,
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์†Œ๋ฆฌ ์ง€๋ฅด๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์„ ๋ณด๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ด ์–ด๋–ค ๋Š๋‚Œ์ธ์ง€ ์ž˜ ์•Œ๊ณ  ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
16:45
because it's happened about the dollar
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๊ทธ๊ฒƒ์ด ์ด๋ฏธ ๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ์— ๋Œ€ํ•ด์„œ๋„ ์ผ์–ด๋‚ฌ์—ˆ๊ธฐ ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์ด์ง€์š”.
16:47
ever since there's been a dollar.
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๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ๊ฐ€ ์ƒ๊ฒจ๋‚œ ์ดํ›„๋ถ€ํ„ฐ ์ง€๊ธˆ๊นŒ์ง€ ๋ง์ด์—์š”.
16:49
We had the battle between Jefferson and Hamilton.
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ์ œํผ์Šจ๊ณผ ํ•ด๋ฐ€ํ„ด์ด ๋…ผ์Ÿํ•˜๋˜ ๊ฒƒ์„ ๋ณด์•˜์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
16:53
In 1913, we had this ugly battle over the Federal Reserve,
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1913๋…„, ์—ฐ๋ฐฉ ์ค€๋น„ ์ œ๋„ ์ด์‚ฌํšŒ์—์„œ ์ถ”์•…ํ•œ ๋…ผ์Ÿ์ด ์žˆ์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
16:57
when it was created, with vicious, angry arguments
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๊ทธ๊ฒƒ์ด ์–ด๋–ป๊ฒŒ ๊ตฌ์„ฑ๋  ๊ฒƒ์ธ์ง€์— ๋Œ€ํ•ด์„œ
17:01
over how it would be constituted,
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๊ณต๊ฒฉ์ ์ด๊ณ  ์‚ฌ๋‚˜์šด ๋…ผ์Ÿ์ด ์žˆ์—ˆ์ฃ .
17:03
and a general agreement that the way it was constituted
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๊ตฌ์„ฑ ๋ฐฉ์‹์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ํ•ฉ์˜๋Š”
17:05
was the worst possible compromise,
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๊ฐ€๋Šฅํ•œ ํ•ฉ์˜ ์ค‘์— ์ตœ์•…์ด์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
17:08
a compromise guaranteed to destroy this valuable thing,
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๊ทธ ํ•ฉ์˜๋Š” ์ด ๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ๋ผ๋Š” ์†Œ์ค‘ํ•œ ๊ฒƒ์„ ํŒŒ๊ดดํ•˜๊ฒŒ ๋งŒ๋“ค์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
17:11
this dollar, but then everyone agreeing, okay,
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ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ ๊ทธ๋•Œ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์€ ๋ชจ๋‘ ๋™์˜ํ•˜๋ฉฐ,
17:14
so long as we're on the gold standard, it should be okay.
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"์šฐ๋ฆฐ ๊ธˆ๋ณธ์œ„์ œ๊ฐ€ ์žˆ์œผ๋‹ˆ ๊ดœ์ฐฎ์„๊ฑฐ์•ผ"๋ผ๊ณ  ํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
17:16
The Fed can't mess it up so badly.
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์—ฐ๋ฐฉ ์ค€๋น„ ์ œ๋„ ์ด์‚ฌํšŒ๋Š” ๋ชจ๋“  ๊ฒƒ์„ ๋ง์ณ๋†“์•˜์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
17:18
But then we got off the gold standard for individuals
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๊ทธ๋Ÿฌ๋‚˜ ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ๋Œ€๊ณตํ™ฉ ๋•Œ ๊ธˆ๋ณธ์œ„ ์ œ๋„์—์„œ ๋ฒ—์–ด๋‚ฌ๊ณ ,
17:22
during the Depression and we got off the gold standard
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๋ฆฌ์ฒ˜๋“œ ๋‹‰์Šจ์ด ๋Œ€ํ†ต๋ ฅ์ง์— ์žˆ์„๋•Œ
17:25
as a source of international currency coordination
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๊ตญ์ œ ํ†ตํ™” ์กฐ์ •์— ์˜ํ•ด์„œ
17:29
during Richard Nixon's presidency.
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๊ธˆ๋ณธ์œ„์ œ๋„์—์„œ ๋ฒ—์–ด๋‚ฌ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
17:31
Each of those times, we were on the verge of complete collapse.
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์ด ๊ฐ๊ฐ์˜ ์‚ฌ๊ฑด ๋•Œ๋งˆ๋‹ค, ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ๋ถ•๊ดด ์ง์ „์— ์žˆ์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
17:35
And nothing happened at all.
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ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ ์•„๋ฌด ์ผ๋„ ์ผ์–ด๋‚˜์ง€ ์•Š์•˜์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
17:37
Throughout it all, the dollar has been
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๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ๋Š” ์—ญ์‚ฌ์ƒ
17:39
one of the most long-standing,
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๊ฐ€์žฅ ์˜ค๋ž˜ ์‚ฌ์šฉ๋œ ํ†ตํ™”์ค‘์— ํ•˜๋‚˜์ด๋ฉฐ
17:41
stable, reasonable currencies,
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์•ˆ์ •์ ์ด๊ณ  ํ•ฉ๋ฆฌ์ ์ธ ํ†ตํ™”์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
17:44
and we all use it every single day,
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ๊ทธ๊ฒƒ์„ ๋งค์ผ ์‚ฌ์šฉํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
17:46
no matter what the people screaming about tell us,
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์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์ด ์–ผ๋งˆ๋‚˜ ๋ฌด์‹œ๋ฌด์‹œํ•˜๊ฒŒ ๋งํ–ˆ๋“ ์ง€ ๊ฐ„์—
17:49
no matter how scared we're supposed to be.
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ์–ผ๋งˆ๋‚˜ ๊ฒ๋จน์—ˆ์–ด์•ผ ํ•˜๋Š”์ง€์— ์ƒ๊ด€์—†์ด ๋ง์ด์—์š”.
17:52
And this long-term fiscal picture that we're in right now,
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์ง€๊ธˆ ์šฐ๋ฆฌ์˜ ๋ฌธ์ œ์ธ ์žฌ์ • ๋ฌธ์ œ์— ๋Œ€ํ•ด
17:56
I think what is most maddening about it is,
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋ฅผ ํ™”๋‚˜๊ฒŒ ํ•˜๋Š”๊ฒƒ์€
18:00
if Congress were simply able
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๋งŒ์•ฝ ์˜ํšŒ๊ฐ€ ๋‹จ์ˆœํžˆ
18:04
to show not that they agree with each other,
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๊ทธ๋“ค์ด ์„œ๋กœ ๋™์˜ํ•˜์ง€ ์•Š๋Š”๋‹ค๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์„ ์ดํ•ดํ•˜๊ณ 
18:06
not that they're able to come up with the best possible compromise,
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์ตœ์„ ์˜ ํ•ฉ์˜๋ฅผ ๋„์ถœํ•ด๋‚ด์ง€๋Š” ๋ชปํ•˜๋”๋ผ๋„
18:09
but that they are able to just begin the process
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ํ•ฉ์˜๋ฅผ ์œ„ํ•œ ๊ณผ์ •์„ ํ–ฅํ•ด ๋‚˜์•„๊ฐ€๊ธฐ๋งŒ ํ–ˆ๋”๋ผ๋ฉด
18:12
towards compromise, we all instantly are better off.
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ์ง€๊ธˆ ํ˜•ํŽธ์ด ๋” ๋‚˜์•„์กŒ์„ ํ…๋ฐ์š”.
18:17
The fear is that the world is watching.
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๋‘๋ ค์šด๊ฒƒ์€ ์ „์„ธ๊ณ„๊ฐ€ ์ง€์ผœ๋ณด๊ณ  ์žˆ๋‹ค๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
18:21
The fear is that the longer we delay any solution,
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๋‘๋ ค์šด ๊ฒƒ์€ ํ•ด๊ฒฐ ๋ฐฉ์•ˆ์„ ๋„์ถœํ•ด ๋‚ด๋Š”๋ฐ ์‹œ๊ฐ„์ด ๊ฑธ๋ฆฌ๋ฉด ๊ฑธ๋ฆด์ˆ˜๋ก
18:24
the more the world will look to the U.S.
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์ „์„ธ๊ณ„๊ฐ€ ๋ฏธ๊ตญ์„ ๋ฐ”๋ผ๋ณด๋Š” ์‹œ๊ฐ„์ด ๊ธธ์–ด์ง‘๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
18:26
not as the bedrock of stability in the global economy,
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์„ธ๊ณ„ ๊ฒฝ์ œ์˜ ๊ธฐ๋ฐ˜์œผ๋กœ์„œ์˜ ๋ฏธ๊ตญ์„ ๋ฐ”๋ผ๋ณด๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ด ์•„๋‹ˆ๋ผ,
18:30
but as a place that can't resolve its own fights,
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์Šค์Šค๋กœ์˜ ๋ฌธ์ œ๋„ ํ•ด๊ฒฐํ•˜์ง€ ๋ชปํ•˜๋Š” ๋ฏธ๊ตญ์„ ๋ฐ”๋ผ๋ด…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
18:33
and the longer we put that off, the more we make the world nervous,
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์ด ๋ฌธ์ œ๊ฐ€ ๋” ๊ธธ์–ด์ง€๋ฉด ๊ธธ์–ด์งˆ์ˆ˜๋ก ์„ธ๊ณ„๋Š” ๋” ๊ธด์žฅํ•˜๊ฒŒ ๋  ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค
18:37
the higher interest rates are going to be,
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๊ธˆ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ๋” ๋†’์•„์งˆ ๊ฒƒ์ด๊ณ 
18:39
the quicker we're going to have to face a day
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๋Œ€์žฌ์•™์˜ ๋‚ ์„ ๋” ๋นจ๋ฆฌ
18:42
of horrible calamity.
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๋งž๋‹ฅ๋œจ๋ฆฌ๊ฒŒ ๋ ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
18:44
And so just the act of compromise itself,
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๊ทธ๋Ÿฌ๋‹ˆ๊นŒ ํƒ€ํ˜‘์„ ํ•˜๋ ค๋Š” ์‹œ๋„์™€
18:47
and sustained, real compromise,
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์ง€์†์ ์ธ ์ง„์งœ ํ•ฉ์˜๊ฐ€
18:49
would give us even more time,
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ์—๊ฒŒ ๋” ๋งŽ์€ ์‹œ๊ฐ„์„ ์ค„ ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
18:51
would allow both sides even longer to spread out the pain
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๊ณ ํ†ต์„ ๋‹ค๋ฅธ ๊ณณ์œผ๋กœ ๋ถ„์‚ฐ์‹œํ‚ฌ ์‹œ๊ฐ„์„ ์–ป๊ฒŒ ๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
18:54
and reach even more compromise down the road.
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ๊ทธ ๊ณผ์ •์—์„œ ๋” ๋งŽ์€ ํ•ฉ์˜๋ฅผ ํ•˜๊ฒŒ ๋˜์ฃ .
18:57
So I'm in the media. I feel like my job to make this happen
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์ €๋Š” ์–ธ๋ก ์ธ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์ €๋Š” ํƒ€ํ˜‘์„ ์ด๋Œ์–ด๋„๋ก
19:00
is to help foster the things that seem to lead to compromise,
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์ผ์„ ๋” ์ด‰์ง„์‹œํ‚ค๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ด ์ €์˜ ์ผ์ด๋ผ๊ณ  ์ƒ๊ฐํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
19:04
to not talk about this in those vague and scary terms
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋ฅผ ๊ทน๋‹จ์œผ๋กœ ๊ฐ€๋ฅด๋Š” ๋ชจํ˜ธํ•˜๊ณ  ๋ฌด์„œ์šด
19:08
that do polarize us,
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๋‹จ์–ด๋“ค์„ ์‚ฌ์šฉํ•˜์ง€ ์•Š๊ณ 
19:10
but to just talk about it like what it is,
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๊ทธ๋ƒฅ ์žˆ๋Š” ๊ทธ๋Œ€๋กœ๋ฅผ ๋งํ•˜๊ณ 
19:12
not an existential crisis,
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๊ทธ๊ฒƒ์ด ์–ด๋–ค์ง€์— ๋Œ€ํ•ด์„œ ์„ค๋ช…ํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ.
19:14
not some battle between two fundamentally different religious views,
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๋‘ ๊ฐœ์˜ ๊ทผ๋ณธ์ ์œผ๋กœ ๋‹ค๋ฅธ ์ข…๊ต์  ๊ฒฌํ•ด ์‚ฌ์ด์˜ ๋…ผ์Ÿ์ด ์•„๋‹ˆ๋ผ
19:19
but a math problem, a really solvable math problem,
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ํ’€ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋Š” ์ˆ˜ํ•™ ๋ฌธ์ œ๋กœ ๋ฐ”๋ผ๋ณด๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
19:22
one where we're not all going to get what we want
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ ๋ชจ๋‘๊ฐ€ ์›ํ•˜๋Š”๊ฒƒ์„ ๊ฐ–์ง€๋„ ๋ชปํ•˜๊ณ 
19:24
and one where, you know, there's going to be a little pain to spread around.
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๋ชจ๋‘๊ฐ€ ๋ถ„๋‹ดํ•ด์•ผ ํ•  ์•ฝ๊ฐ„์˜ ๊ณ ํ†ต์€ ์žˆ๊ฒ ์ฃ .
19:28
But the more we address it as a practical concern,
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ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ๊ทธ๊ฒƒ์„ ์‹ค์šฉ์ ์ธ ๋ฌธ์ œ๋กœ ํ•ด๊ฒฐํ•˜๋ ค ํ•œ๋‹ค๋ฉด
19:31
the sooner we can resolve it,
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ๊ทธ๊ฒƒ์„ ๋” ๋นจ๋ฆฌ ํ•ด๊ฒฐํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
19:33
and the more time we have to resolve it, paradoxically.
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์—ญ์„ค์ ์œผ๋กœ ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ๊ทธ๊ฒƒ์„ ํ•ด๊ฒฐํ•  ์‹œ๊ฐ„์ด ๋” ๋งŽ์•„์ง‘๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
19:36
Thank you. (Applause)
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๊ฐ์‚ฌํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. (๋ฐ•์ˆ˜)
์ด ์›น์‚ฌ์ดํŠธ ์ •๋ณด

์ด ์‚ฌ์ดํŠธ๋Š” ์˜์–ด ํ•™์Šต์— ์œ ์šฉํ•œ YouTube ๋™์˜์ƒ์„ ์†Œ๊ฐœํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์ „ ์„ธ๊ณ„ ์ตœ๊ณ ์˜ ์„ ์ƒ๋‹˜๋“ค์ด ๊ฐ€๋ฅด์น˜๋Š” ์˜์–ด ์ˆ˜์—…์„ ๋ณด๊ฒŒ ๋  ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๊ฐ ๋™์˜์ƒ ํŽ˜์ด์ง€์— ํ‘œ์‹œ๋˜๋Š” ์˜์–ด ์ž๋ง‰์„ ๋”๋ธ” ํด๋ฆญํ•˜๋ฉด ๊ทธ๊ณณ์—์„œ ๋™์˜์ƒ์ด ์žฌ์ƒ๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๋น„๋””์˜ค ์žฌ์ƒ์— ๋งž์ถฐ ์ž๋ง‰์ด ์Šคํฌ๋กค๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์˜๊ฒฌ์ด๋‚˜ ์š”์ฒญ์ด ์žˆ๋Š” ๊ฒฝ์šฐ ์ด ๋ฌธ์˜ ์–‘์‹์„ ์‚ฌ์šฉํ•˜์—ฌ ๋ฌธ์˜ํ•˜์‹ญ์‹œ์˜ค.

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