请双击下面的英文字幕来播放视频。
翻译人员: psjmz mz
校对人员: Wanting Zhong
00:13
I'm going to tell you a story.
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让我给你们讲一个故事。
00:16
I'm going to tell you a story
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这个故事讲的是
00:17
about how the deadliest
consumer product imaginable
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你能想象的最致命的消费品
00:20
came to be.
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是如何出现的。
00:22
It's the cigarette.
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我指的是香烟。
00:24
The cigarette is the only consumer product
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香烟是独一无二的消费品,
00:27
that, when used as intended,
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当按照预期使用时,
00:29
will kill half of all long-term users
prematurely, later in life.
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它会让半数长期使用者在
日后的生活中过早死亡。
00:34
But this is also a story
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但这个故事也是关于
00:35
about the work that we're doing
at the Food and Drug Administration,
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我们在美国食品和药物
管理局(FDA)的工作,
00:39
and specifically,
the work that we're doing
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具体来说,就是我们正进行的
00:41
to create the cigarette of the future,
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制造未来香烟的工作,
00:44
that is no longer capable
of creating or sustaining addiction.
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使其无法再造成或维持上瘾。
00:49
A lot of people think that
the tobacco problem or the smoking problem
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很多人认为烟草问题
或者吸烟问题
00:53
has been solved in the United States
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在美国已经解决了,
00:55
because of the great progress
that's been made
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因为过去四五十年间
00:57
over the last 40, 50 years,
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我们在(烟草的)消费和使用率方面
00:59
when it comes to both
consumption and prevalence.
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都取得了巨大进步。
01:02
And it's true;
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确实如此;
01:04
smoking rates are at historic lows.
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吸烟率处于历史低位。
01:07
It's true for both adults and for kids.
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对于成年人和儿童都是如此。
01:11
And it's true that those
who continue to smoke
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另外那些继续吸烟的人
01:14
are smoking far fewer cigarettes per day
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每天吸的香烟数量
01:16
than at any time in history.
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确实比历史任何时候都少。
01:20
But what if I told you
that tobacco use,
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但如果我告诉你们烟草使用,
01:23
primarily because of firsthand
and secondhand exposure
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主要是暴露在香烟烟雾中
吸入的一手烟和二手烟,
01:27
to the smoke in cigarettes,
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仍然是这个国家完全可预防
的疾病和死亡的主要原因时,
01:30
remains the leading cause of completely
preventable disease and death
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01:33
in this country?
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你会怎么想?
01:36
Well, that's true.
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是的,这是真的。
01:38
And what if I told you
that it's actually killing more people
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如果再我告诉你,其实它杀害的人
01:42
than we thought
to be the case ever before?
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比我们想象的要多呢?
01:45
That's true, too.
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这也是真的。
01:48
Smoking kills more people each year
than alcohol, AIDS, car accidents,
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每年死于吸烟的人数
比酒精、艾滋、车祸、
01:53
illegal drugs, murders
and suicides combined.
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非法毒品、谋杀和自杀
加在一起还多。
01:57
Year in and year out.
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年复一年。
01:59
In 2014,
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2014 年,
亚当斯博士
【注:美国现任卫生局局长】
02:03
Dr. Adams's predecessor released
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02:04
the 50th anniversary
Surgeon General's report
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的前任发表了美国卫生总署
关于吸烟与健康的
02:07
on smoking and health.
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五十周年报告。
02:10
And that report upped the annual
death toll from smoking,
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这份报告还增加了每年
因吸烟而死亡的人数,
02:13
because the list
of smoking-related illnesses
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因为与吸烟有关的疾病
02:16
got bigger.
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越来越多。
02:18
And so it is now conservatively estimated
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依据目前的保守估计,
02:20
that smoking kills
480,000 Americans every year.
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美国每年因吸烟致死
的人数为 48 万。
02:25
These are completely preventable deaths.
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这些全是可预防的死亡。
02:28
How do we wrap our heads around
a statistic like this?
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我们该如何理解这样的数据呢?
02:32
So much of what we've heard
at this conference
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我们在这次会议上听到很多
02:34
is about individual experiences
and personal experiences.
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个体经历和个人经验。
02:39
How do we deal with this
at a population level,
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我们如何在人口水平上
处理这个问题,
02:41
when there are 480,000 moms,
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当每年有 48 万母亲、
02:44
dads, sisters, brothers, aunts and uncles
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父亲、姐妹、兄弟、阿姨和叔叔
02:49
dying unnecessary deaths
every year from tobacco?
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不必要地死于烟草?
02:54
And then what happens
when you think about this trajectory
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当你思考未来的趋势时
02:57
for the future?
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会发生什么?
02:59
And just do the simple math:
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只要做简单的计算:
03:01
from the time of the 50th anniversary
Surgeon General's report five years ago,
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从五年前卫生总署的
五十周年报道开始,
03:06
when this horrible statistic was raised,
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那是这个可怕的统计数据
发表的时间,
03:09
just through mid-century --
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只用了半个世纪——
03:11
that's more than 17 million
avoidable deaths in the United States
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美国就有超过 1700 万例可避免的
03:17
from tobacco use,
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因烟草引起的死亡,
03:19
primarily because of cigarettes.
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主要是由于香烟。
03:21
The Surgeon General concluded
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卫生总署总结道,
03:24
that 5.6 million children
alive in the United States in 2014
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2014 年美国有 560 万儿童
03:31
will die prematurely later in life
because of cigarettes.
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日后将会因香烟过早死亡。
03:36
Five point six million children.
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560 万儿童。
03:39
So this is an enormous
public health problem for all of us
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所以这对我们所有人都是
巨大的公共健康问题,
03:44
but especially for us as regulators
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尤其对我们这些在 FDA
03:46
at the Food and Drug Administration
and the Center for Tobacco Products.
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和烟草制品中心的监管者而言。
03:50
What can we do about it?
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我们对此能做些什么呢?
03:52
What can we do to reverse this trajectory
of disease and death?
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我们应如何扭转这种
疾病和死亡的趋势?
03:58
Well, we have an interesting guide
to help unravel issues
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我们有个有趣的指南
来帮助解决问题,
04:04
like: How did the cigarette
as we know it come to be?
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比如:我们所知道的
香烟是怎么来的?
04:08
What is the true nature
of the tobacco and cigarette business?
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烟草和卷烟业的真正性质是什么?
04:13
How did the industry behave
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该行业在历史上不受监管
04:14
in the historically
unregulated marketplace?
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的市场中是如何运作的?
04:18
And our guide
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我们的指南来自
04:20
is previously secret internal documents
from the tobacco industry.
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烟草行业曾经保持机密的内部文件。
04:25
Come with me
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和那么请我一起
04:26
in a tobacco industry
document time machine.
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进入烟草业文件的时间机器。
04:31
Nineteen sixty-three
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1963 年,
04:33
was 25 years before the Surgeon General
was finally able to conclude
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那是在卫生总署于
04:39
that the nicotine
and cigarettes was addictive.
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1998 年得出结论表明
04:42
That did not happen until
the Surgeon General's report in 1998.
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尼古丁和烟草会导致上瘾的 25 年前。
04:47
Nineteen sixty-three
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1963 年,
04:49
was one year before the first-ever
Surgeon General's report in 1964.
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是 1964 年史上卫生总署
第一次发布报告的前一年。
04:56
I remember 1964.
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我记得 1964 年。
04:58
I don't remember
the Surgeon General's report,
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我不记得卫生总署的报告了,
05:00
but I remember 1964.
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但我记得 1964 年。
05:02
I was a kid growing up
in Brooklyn, New York.
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我是个在纽约布鲁克林长大的孩子。
05:05
This was at a time
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那个时候
05:07
when almost one in two adults
in the United States smoked.
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几乎一半的美国成年人吸烟。
05:12
Both of my parents
were heavy smokers at the time.
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那时我父母都是重度烟民。
05:16
Tobacco use was so incredibly normalized
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烟草使用极为正常
05:19
that -- and this wasn't North Carolina,
Virginia or Kentucky,
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——这里不是北卡罗莱纳,
不是弗吉尼亚,也不是肯塔基,
05:22
this was Brooklyn --
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这是布鲁克林——
05:24
we made ashtrays for our parents
in arts and crafts class.
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我们甚至在工艺美术课上
为父母做烟灰缸。
05:28
(Laughter)
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(笑声)
05:31
The ashtrays I made were pretty awful,
but they were ashtrays.
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我做的烟灰缸很难看,但倒是能用。
05:34
(Laughter)
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(笑声)
05:36
So normalized that I remember seeing
a bowl of loose cigarettes in the foyer
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平常到我记得在我们家
和其他房子的门厅里
05:42
of our house and other houses
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有一碗散装香烟
05:44
as a welcoming gesture
when friends came over for a visit.
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作为朋友来访时的招待品。
05:49
OK, we're back in 1963.
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好了,我们回到 1963 年。
05:53
The top lawyer for Brown and Williamson,
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当时美国的第三大烟草公司,
05:55
which was then the third-largest
cigarette company in the United States,
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布朗和威廉姆森的首席律师,
05:58
wrote the following:
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写下了如下句子:
05:59
"Nicotine is addictive.
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“尼古丁会上瘾。
06:01
We are, then, in the business
of selling nicotine -- an addictive drug."
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我们的业务是出售尼古丁,
一种会让人上瘾的毒品。”
06:05
It's a remarkable statement,
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这个声明很不可思议,
06:06
as much for what it doesn't say
as for what it does say.
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不仅在于它说出的话,
还在于它没说的内容。
06:09
He didn't say they were
in the cigarette business.
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他没说他们是做香烟生意。
06:11
He didn't say they were
in the tobacco business.
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他没说他们在烟草行业。
06:13
He said they were in the business
of selling nicotine.
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他说他们是销售尼古丁的行业。
06:17
Philip Morris in 1972:
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1972 年,菲利普·莫里斯公司说:
【注:烟草公司】
06:19
"The cigarette isn't a product,
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“香烟不是一种产品,
06:20
it's a package.
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它是个包装。
06:22
The product is nicotine.
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产品是尼古丁。
06:24
The pack is a storage container
for a day's supply of nicotine.
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烟盒是储存一天所需
尼古丁的容器。
06:28
The cigarette, a dispenser
for a dose unit of nicotine."
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香烟是一剂量单位
尼古丁的分配器。”
06:34
We'll come back to this
dose unit notion later.
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我们稍后会回到剂量单位的概念。
06:37
And R.J. Reynolds in 1972:
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还有 1972 年的雷诺兹烟草公司:
06:39
"In a sense, the tobacco industry
may be thought of as being a specialized,
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“在某种意义上,烟草行业
可以说是制药行业中
06:43
highly ritualized and stylized segment
of the pharmaceutical industry.
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一个专业化、高度仪式化
和风格化的部门。
06:47
Tobacco products uniquely
contain and deliver nicotine,
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香烟制品独一无二地
包含并投送尼古丁,
06:50
a potent drug with a variety
of physiological effects."
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一种具有多种生理效应的强效药物。”
06:53
At the time, and for many
decades, publicly,
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当时,并且几十年来,
06:56
the industry completely denied addiction
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这个行业公开地
完全否认上瘾,
06:59
and completely denied causality.
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完全否认背后的因果关系。
07:02
But they knew the true nature
of their business.
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但他们知道他们生意的真正本质。
07:04
And from time to time,
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时不时地,
07:06
there have been health scares
made public about cigarettes,
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有关于香烟的健康恐慌
被公诸于众,
07:09
going back many decades.
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早在几十年前就是如此。
07:11
How did the industry respond?
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这个行业是如何回应的?
07:14
And how did they respond
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它们在这个历史上
07:15
in this historically
unregulated marketplace?
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不受监管的市场中是如何反应的?
07:18
Going back to the 1930s,
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回到 1930 年代,
07:20
it was with advertising
that heavily featured imagery of doctors
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他们在广告中
让医生和其他医护人员
07:26
and other health care professionals
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传达安抚信息的画面
07:27
sending messages of reassurance.
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占据了显著位置。
07:30
This is an ad for Lucky Strikes,
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这是美国好彩公司的一则广告,
07:32
the popular cigarette
of the time in the '30s:
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它是 30 年代流行的香烟产品:
07:34
[20,679 physicians
say "Luckies are less irritating."
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【20679 名医生说:“好彩刺激性更低。”
07:39
Your throat protection
against irritation, against cough.]
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保护喉咙免受刺激,防止咳嗽。】
07:43
(Laughter)
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(笑声)
07:46
We laugh,
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我们笑了,
07:47
but this was the kind of advertising
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但这就是那类广告
07:49
that was there to send
a health message of reassurance.
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用来传递让人放心的健康信息。
07:52
Fast-forward to 1950s, '60s and '70s.
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快进到 1950 年代,
60 年代和 70 年代。
07:56
And here, again,
in the absence of regulation,
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同样缺乏监管,
07:59
what we're going to see
is modifications to the product
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我们看到了商家通过修改产品
08:01
and product design
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和产品设计
08:03
to respond to the health
concerns of the day.
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来响应当时的健康顾虑。
08:07
This is the Kent Micronite filter.
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这是肯特微型过滤器。
08:11
And here, the innovation, if you will,
was the filtered cigarette.
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这里所谓的创新是过滤香烟。
08:16
[Full smoking pleasure ...
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【吸烟的全部乐趣……
08:18
plus proof of the greatest
health protection ever.]
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再加上有史以来最有效的
健康保护措施。】
08:22
What the smoker
of this product didn't know,
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这个产品的烟民不知道,
08:25
what their doctor didn't know,
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他们的医生不知道,
08:27
what the government didn't know,
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他们的政府不知道,
08:29
is that this was a filter
that was lined with asbestos --
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这个过滤器的内衬是石棉——
08:32
(Gasps)
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(惊呼)
08:33
so that when smokers
were smoking this filtered cigarette
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所以当吸烟者
吸食过滤香烟时
08:36
and still inhaling the chemicals and smoke
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仍然吸入化学物质和烟雾,
08:39
that we know are associated
with cancer and lung disease
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这些我们知道跟癌症、肺病
08:42
and heart disease,
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和心脏病相关的东西,
08:43
they were also sucking down
asbestos fibers.
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他们还在吮吸石棉纤维。
08:46
(Gasps)
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(惊呼)
08:48
In the 1960s and the 1970s,
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在 1960 和 1970 年代,
08:50
the so-called innovation
was the light cigarette.
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所谓的创新是淡味香烟。
08:55
This is a typical brand
of the day called True.
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3479
这是当时一个典型品牌,
叫做 True。
08:59
And this is after the Surgeon General's
reports have started coming out.
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这是在卫生总署报告
开始发行后出现的。
09:02
And you see the look
of concern on her face.
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你可以看到她脸上的担忧。
09:05
[Considering all I'd heard,
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【考虑到我听到的一切,
09:06
I decided to either quit
or smoke True.
174
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我决定,要么不戒烟,
要么抽 True。
09:09
I smoke True.]
175
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1406
我选择 True。】
09:10
(Laughter)
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(笑声)
09:12
[The low tar, low nicotine cigarette.]
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【低焦油,低尼古丁香烟。】
09:15
And then it says, "Think about it."
178
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然后它说,“考虑一下。”
09:17
And then even below that
in the small print
179
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3278
然后在更下面的地方,
用小字写着
09:20
are tar numbers and nicotine numbers.
180
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焦油和尼古丁数据。
09:24
What was a light cigarette?
181
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什么是淡味香烟?
09:27
How did it work?
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它的原理是什么?
09:30
This is an illustration
of the product modification
183
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2698
这个图例展示了
被称为“过滤通风”的产品修改设计。
09:33
known as "filter ventilation."
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这并不是真正过滤器的放大图。
09:36
That's not a real filter blown up.
185
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1659
09:37
That's just a picture
186
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1190
这只是张图示,能让你看到
09:39
so that you could see the rows
of laser-perforated ventilation holes
187
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3206
在过滤器上的
一排排激光穿孔的通风孔。
09:42
that were put on the filter.
188
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1356
09:43
When you look at a real cigarette,
189
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1632
现实中你观察香烟时,
09:45
it's harder to see.
190
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1516
它很难看到。
09:46
Every patent for this product shows
191
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这种产品的每一项专利都说明
09:48
that the ventilation holes
should be 12 millimeters
192
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3402
通风孔应和过滤器的唇端
相距 12 毫米。
09:52
from the lip end of the filter.
193
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1769
09:54
How did it work?
194
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1308
它的原理是怎样的?
09:56
The cigarette got stuck into a machine.
195
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2238
把香烟塞进机器里。
09:59
The machine started
puffing away on the cigarette
196
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2341
机器开始吞云吐雾地吸烟,
10:02
and recording tar and nicotine levels.
197
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2437
并记录下焦油和尼古丁的含量。
10:05
As the machine smoked,
198
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1730
当机器抽烟时,
10:06
outside air came through
those ventilation holes
199
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3445
外部空气进入这些通风孔,
10:10
and diluted the amount of smoke
that was coming through the cigarette.
200
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3912
稀释了香烟产生的烟雾。
10:14
So as the machine smoked,
201
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2087
所以当机器抽烟时,
10:16
there really was less tar
and nicotine being delivered
202
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2543
确实比常规香烟输送的
10:18
compared to a regular cigarette.
203
618898
1847
焦油和尼古丁要少。
10:21
What the tobacco industry knew
204
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1785
烟草工业知道
10:23
was that human beings
don't smoke like machines.
205
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3064
人类不像机器那样抽烟。
10:27
How do human beings smoke this?
206
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2066
人类是如何抽烟的?
10:30
Where do the fingers go?
207
630816
1600
手指放在哪里呢?
10:32
(Murmurs)
208
632440
1240
(低语)
10:33
Where do the lips go?
209
633704
1400
嘴唇应该放在哪里?
10:35
I told you that the patent said
210
635474
1492
我说过,专利说
10:36
that the holes are 12 millimeters
from the lip end.
211
636990
3024
通风孔距唇端 12 毫米。
10:40
The smoker didn't even know
they were there,
212
640038
2238
吸烟者甚至不知道它们在那里,
10:42
but between fingers and lips,
the holes get blocked.
213
642300
3799
但在手指和嘴唇之间,
通风孔被挡住了。
10:46
And when the holes get blocked,
it's no longer a light cigarette.
214
646505
3714
当这些小孔被堵住时,
它就不再是淡味香烟了。
10:50
Turns out that there's actually
215
650807
1532
结果实际上,
10:52
basically as much nicotine
inside a light cigarette
216
652363
2706
淡味香烟里面的尼古丁含量
其实跟常规香烟一样。
10:55
as a regular cigarette.
217
655093
1206
10:56
The difference was what's on the outside.
218
656323
1966
差异在于外面的东西。
10:58
But once you block what's on the outside,
219
658313
3246
但一旦你挡住外面的东西,
11:01
it's a regular cigarette.
220
661583
1547
它就是一支常规的香烟。
11:04
Congress put FDA in the business
of regulating tobacco products
221
664821
3011
10 年前的六月,国会让 FDA
11:07
10 years ago this June.
222
667856
1475
介入烟草监管。
11:09
So you heard the statistics
at the beginning
223
669355
2325
于是你在开头听到了那些
11:11
about the extraordinary contribution
to disease and death that cigarettes make.
224
671704
4660
香烟导致疾病和死亡的惊人统计。
11:16
We've also been paying a lot of attention
225
676754
2028
我们也把很多注意力放到
11:18
to how the cigarette works
as a drug-delivery device
226
678806
3860
香烟作为药物传输设备的工作原理
11:22
and the remarkable efficiency
with which it delivers nicotine.
227
682690
3558
以及它传递尼古丁的非凡效率。
11:26
So let's take a look.
228
686272
1400
那么让我们看看。
11:28
When the smoker puffs on the cigarette,
229
688844
2761
当吸烟者吸一口烟时,
11:31
the nicotine from that puff
gets up into the brain
230
691629
3207
这口烟里的尼古丁
会在不到 10 秒内
11:34
in less than 10 seconds.
231
694860
1809
进入大脑。
11:37
Less than 10 seconds.
232
697252
1476
不到 10 秒。
11:39
Up in the brain,
233
699300
1729
在大脑里,
11:41
there are these things
called "nicotinic receptors."
234
701053
2865
有叫“尼古丁受体”的东西。
11:44
They're there ...
235
704929
1475
它们在那里……
11:46
waiting.
236
706428
1164
等待着。
11:47
They're waiting for, in the words
of that Philip Morris document,
237
707945
3262
它们在等待,用菲利普·莫里斯
公司那份文件的话来说,
11:51
the next "dose unit of nicotine."
238
711231
2066
下一个“剂量单位”的尼古丁。
11:55
The smoker that you see outside,
239
715252
2666
你看到在外面的吸烟者,
11:57
huddled with other smokers,
240
717942
1889
跟其他吸烟者挤在一起,
11:59
in the cold,
241
719855
1484
在寒冷中,
12:01
in the wind,
242
721363
1262
在风中,
12:02
in the rain,
243
722649
1693
在雨中,
12:04
is experiencing craving
244
724366
2254
正在经历渴望,
12:06
and may be experiencing
the symptoms of withdrawal.
245
726644
2698
并可能正在经历戒断症状。
12:10
Those symptoms of withdrawal
are a chemical message
246
730564
3561
戒断症状是这些受体
12:14
that these receptors
are sending to the body,
247
734149
2140
传递给身体的化学信息,
12:16
saying, "Feed me!"
248
736313
1556
说,“喂我!”
12:20
And a product that can deliver the drug
in less than 10 seconds
249
740490
5848
一个可以在10 秒内
传递药物的产品
12:27
turns out to be an incredibly efficient
and incredibly addictive product.
250
747230
4730
结果成为一种难以置信
的高效和上瘾的产品。
12:33
We've spoken to so many
addiction treatment experts
251
753379
3087
多年来,我们跟很多成瘾治疗专家
12:36
over the years.
252
756490
1150
交谈过。
12:38
And the story I hear is the same
over and over again:
253
758053
3306
我听到同样的故事不断重复:
12:41
"Long after I was able
to get somebody off of heroin
254
761383
2484
“我早就能让某人戒掉海洛因、
12:43
or cocaine or crack cocaine,
255
763891
2714
可卡因或强效纯可卡因,
12:46
I can't get them to quit cigarettes."
256
766629
2048
但我无法让他们戒烟。”
12:49
A large part of the explanation
is the 10-second thing.
257
769145
3187
很大一部分解释是
那个 10 秒钟。
12:54
FDA has it within its regulatory reach
258
774081
3754
FDA 已经在监管范围内
12:57
to use the tools of product regulation
259
777859
2374
使用产品监管工具
13:00
to render cigarettes as we know them
minimally or nonaddictive.
260
780257
4370
让我们所知的香烟
成瘾性最低或不成瘾。
13:06
We're working on this.
261
786030
1466
我们正在为此努力。
13:08
And this could have a profound
impact at a population level
262
788046
4046
这一个政策可能在人口层面上
13:12
from this one policy.
263
792116
1461
产生深远的影响。
13:14
We did dynamic population-level
modeling a year ago,
264
794124
2463
一年前我们做了人口层面
的动态建模,
13:16
and we published the results
in "The New England Journal."
265
796611
2734
我们在《新英格兰杂志》
上发表了研究结果。
13:19
And because of the generational
effect of this policy,
266
799369
2553
因为这项政策的世代效应,
13:21
which I'll explain in a minute,
267
801946
1491
我马上会解释,
13:23
here's what we project out
through the end of the century:
268
803461
2807
这是我们预测到的本世纪末的情况:
13:26
more than 33 million people
269
806292
1682
超过 3300 万
13:27
who would otherwise have gone on
to become regular smokers won't,
270
807998
3682
本来会成为常规吸烟者的人
不会成为吸烟者,
13:31
because the cigarette
that they'll be experimenting with
271
811704
2641
因为他们将要试验的香烟
13:34
can't create or sustain addiction.
272
814369
1740
不会产生或维持成瘾。
13:36
This would drive the adult smoking rate
down to less than one and a half percent.
273
816569
3913
这将使成人吸烟率
下降到 1.5% 以下。
13:41
And these two things combined
274
821450
1883
这两件事情相结合
13:44
would result in the saving of more than
eight million cigarette-related deaths
275
824107
5484
可以拯救那些本会因
世代影响而导致的
13:49
that would otherwise have occurred
276
829615
2229
800 多万例吸烟有关的死亡。
13:51
from the generational impact of this.
277
831868
2023
13:53
Now, why am I saying "generational"?
278
833915
2267
为什么我提到“世代”?
13:57
It's about kids.
279
837367
1389
这跟儿童有关。
14:00
Ninety percent of adult smokers
started smoking when they were kids.
280
840090
3318
90% 的成人吸烟者
从孩童时期就开始吸烟。
14:04
Half of them became regular smokers
281
844121
2103
其中一半人在合法购烟年龄前
14:06
before they were legally old enough
to buy a pack of cigarettes.
282
846248
3409
就成为了老烟民。
14:10
Half of them became regular smokers
before they were 18 years old.
283
850287
3179
其中一半人在 18 岁之前
就成为了老烟民。
14:13
Experimentation.
284
853490
1150
尝试。
14:15
Regular smoking.
285
855212
1150
惯常吸烟。
14:16
Addiction.
286
856728
1150
上瘾。
14:18
Decades of smoking.
287
858522
1341
数十年烟龄。
14:19
And then the illness,
288
859887
1603
然后是疾病,
14:21
and that's why we're talking
about a product
289
861514
2147
这就是为什么我们讨论的这个产品
14:23
that will kill half of all long-term users
prematurely later in life.
290
863685
3969
会让一半的长期使用者
在以后过早死亡。
14:28
The generational impact
of this nicotine-reduction policy
291
868880
3306
这个减少尼古丁的政策会带来深远
14:32
is profound.
292
872210
1324
的世代影响。
14:34
Those old industry documents
had a word for young people.
293
874817
2925
那些旧的行业文件中用
一个词形容年轻人。
14:38
They were described as
"the replacement smokers."
294
878323
2953
他们被称为“替代吸烟者”。
14:42
The replacement smokers
for addicted adult smokers
295
882577
2365
替代那些死亡或戒烟
14:44
who died or quit.
296
884966
1150
的成年烟民。
14:46
Future generations of kids,
especially teens,
297
886533
3770
未来世代的小孩,尤其是青少年,
14:50
are going to engage in risky behavior.
298
890327
1968
将会进行高风险行为。
14:52
We can't stop that.
299
892319
1267
我们无法阻止他们。
14:54
But what if the only cigarette
that they could get their hands on
300
894010
4001
但如果他们唯一能入手的香烟
14:58
could no longer create
or sustain addiction?
301
898035
2289
无法产生或维持上瘾会怎样?
15:00
That's the public health
return on investment
302
900839
2611
这是长期在人口层面上投资
15:03
at a population level over time.
303
903474
2412
的公共健康回报。
15:07
Haven't said anything about e-cigarettes.
304
907132
2064
我还没有说到任何有关
电子烟的事情。
15:09
But I have to say something
about e-cigarettes.
305
909521
2206
但我得谈一下电子烟。
15:11
(Laughter)
306
911751
1017
(笑声)
15:12
We are dealing with an epidemic
of kids' use of e-cigarettes.
307
912792
2872
我们正在应对电子烟
在小孩中的流行使用。
15:15
And what troubles us the most,
308
915688
2159
最让我们感到困扰的,
15:17
in combination with the rising numbers
when it comes to prevalence,
309
917871
4381
是与不断上升的流行率相结合的
15:22
is frequency.
310
922276
1404
使用频率。
15:23
Not only are more kids using e-cigarettes,
311
923704
2329
不仅有更多小孩在使用电子烟,
15:26
but more kids are using e-cigarettes
20 or more days in the past 30 days
312
926057
4080
而且自电子烟推出市场以来,
在过去 30 天中
使用电子烟 20 天以上
的小孩数目达到了新高。
15:30
than at any time since e-cigarettes
came onto the market.
313
930161
2777
15:32
And at FDA, we're doing
everything that we can
314
932962
2222
在 FDA,我们正倾尽全力
使用项目和政策,
15:35
using program and policy,
315
935208
1258
15:36
first to get the word out to kids
316
936490
1619
首先向小孩传递信息说,
15:38
that this is not a harmless product
317
938133
2071
这不是一种无害的产品,
15:40
and to make sure that kids
aren't initiating and experimenting
318
940228
2935
并确保孩子不会主动开始或尝试
15:43
on any tobacco product,
319
943187
1160
任何烟草制品,
15:44
whether combustion is present or not.
320
944371
1880
无论是否需要点燃。
15:46
But think about e-cigarettes
in a properly regulated marketplace
321
946569
3121
但是想想电子烟在
一个合理监管的市场上,
15:49
as something that could be of benefit
322
949714
1923
对于那些试图戒掉香烟
15:51
to addicted adult cigarette smokers
323
951661
2120
的上瘾成年吸烟者来说
15:53
who are trying to transition
away from cigarettes.
324
953805
2356
可能是有益的。
15:56
So, I'll leave you with this vision:
325
956185
3531
所以,我将留给你们如下的愿景:
16:01
imagine a world
326
961748
1651
想象这样一个世界,
16:04
where the only cigarette
that future generations of kids
327
964077
2672
因为一个政策,
未来世代的儿童
16:06
could experiment with
328
966773
1161
16:07
could no longer create
or sustain addiction
329
967958
2238
唯一能够尝试到的香烟
无法再产生或维持上瘾。
16:10
because of a single policy.
330
970220
1737
16:12
Imagine a world
331
972585
1178
想象这样一个世界,
16:14
where health-concerned cigarette smokers,
332
974534
2686
关注健康的吸烟者
可以过渡到危害更小的
16:17
especially if a policy goes into effect
333
977244
2896
其它尼古丁传递形式,
16:20
that takes the nicotine levels down
to minimally or nonaddictive levels,
334
980164
3604
尤其是在让尼古丁水平降低到
最低或不上瘾程度
16:23
could transition to alternative
and less harmful forms
335
983792
2542
的政策开始生效时。
16:26
of nicotine delivery,
336
986358
1315
16:27
starting with FDA-approved
nicotine medications,
337
987697
2253
他们可以从 FDA 批准的
尼古丁药物开始,
16:29
like the gum, patch and lozenge.
338
989974
1937
比如口香糖、贴片和嚼锭。
16:32
And finally,
339
992704
1191
最后,
16:33
imagine a world and a properly
regulated marketplace,
340
993919
2849
想象这样一个世界和
一个合理监管的市场,
16:36
whether it's e-cigarettes
or whatever the technology of the day,
341
996792
3214
无论是电子烟还是
任何当时的科技,
16:40
it's not the product developers
and the marketers
342
1000030
2301
都不是由产品开发者和市场营销者
决定什么产品进入市场
16:42
who decide which products come to market
343
1002355
1945
16:44
and what claims get made for them,
344
1004324
1809
以及对产品做出声明,
16:46
it's review scientists at FDA,
345
1006157
2872
而是由 FDA 的审批科学家
16:49
who look at applications
346
1009053
1580
审查申请,
16:50
and decide, using the standard
that Congress has entrusted us
347
1010657
3674
并使用国会委托我们
实现和执行的标准,
16:54
to implement and enforce,
348
1014355
2055
来决定一个特定的产品
是否能够进入市场,
16:56
whether a particular product
should come to market,
349
1016434
2833
16:59
because the marketing of that product
and the words of our law
350
1019291
3238
因为那个产品的营销
和我们遵循的法律
17:02
would be appropriate for the protection
of the public health.
351
1022553
3172
应当有益于保护公众健康。
17:06
These are the kinds
of powerful regulatory tools
352
1026297
2305
这些都是我们可以使用的
17:08
that are within our reach
353
1028626
2988
强有力的监管工具,
17:11
to deal with what remains
354
1031638
1376
可以用来处理这个国家的
17:13
the leading cause of completely
preventable disease and death
355
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3253
完全可预防的疾病和死亡
17:16
in the country.
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1159
的要因。
17:17
If we get this right,
357
1037498
1267
如果我们正确处理,
17:19
that trajectory,
those 5.6 million kids,
358
1039657
4589
就能打破那个趋势,
拯救那 560 万儿童。
17:24
is breakable.
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1044270
1341
17:25
Thank you.
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1151
谢谢。
17:26
(Applause)
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2713
(鼓掌)
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