The past, present and future of nicotine addiction | Mitch Zeller

123,324 views ・ 2020-01-22

TED


请双击下面的英文字幕来播放视频。

翻译人员: psjmz mz 校对人员: Wanting Zhong
00:13
I'm going to tell you a story.
0
13143
1658
让我给你们讲一个故事。
00:16
I'm going to tell you a story
1
16048
1391
这个故事讲的是
00:17
about how the deadliest consumer product imaginable
2
17463
3179
你能想象的最致命的消费品
00:20
came to be.
3
20666
1150
是如何出现的。
00:22
It's the cigarette.
4
22413
1266
我指的是香烟。
00:24
The cigarette is the only consumer product
5
24572
2532
香烟是独一无二的消费品,
00:27
that, when used as intended,
6
27128
2539
当按照预期使用时,
00:29
will kill half of all long-term users prematurely, later in life.
7
29691
3809
它会让半数长期使用者在 日后的生活中过早死亡。
00:34
But this is also a story
8
34347
1225
但这个故事也是关于
00:35
about the work that we're doing at the Food and Drug Administration,
9
35596
3426
我们在美国食品和药物 管理局(FDA)的工作,
00:39
and specifically, the work that we're doing
10
39046
2404
具体来说,就是我们正进行的
00:41
to create the cigarette of the future,
11
41474
3151
制造未来香烟的工作,
00:44
that is no longer capable of creating or sustaining addiction.
12
44649
4420
使其无法再造成或维持上瘾。
00:49
A lot of people think that the tobacco problem or the smoking problem
13
49823
3699
很多人认为烟草问题 或者吸烟问题
00:53
has been solved in the United States
14
53546
1738
在美国已经解决了,
00:55
because of the great progress that's been made
15
55308
2166
因为过去四五十年间
00:57
over the last 40, 50 years,
16
57498
1889
我们在(烟草的)消费和使用率方面
00:59
when it comes to both consumption and prevalence.
17
59411
2843
都取得了巨大进步。
01:02
And it's true;
18
62278
1158
确实如此;
01:04
smoking rates are at historic lows.
19
64205
3031
吸烟率处于历史低位。
01:07
It's true for both adults and for kids.
20
67673
2801
对于成年人和儿童都是如此。
01:11
And it's true that those who continue to smoke
21
71339
2786
另外那些继续吸烟的人
01:14
are smoking far fewer cigarettes per day
22
74149
2634
每天吸的香烟数量
01:16
than at any time in history.
23
76807
1867
确实比历史任何时候都少。
01:20
But what if I told you that tobacco use,
24
80035
3901
但如果我告诉你们烟草使用,
01:23
primarily because of firsthand and secondhand exposure
25
83960
3308
主要是暴露在香烟烟雾中
吸入的一手烟和二手烟,
01:27
to the smoke in cigarettes,
26
87292
2714
仍然是这个国家完全可预防 的疾病和死亡的主要原因时,
01:30
remains the leading cause of completely preventable disease and death
27
90030
3758
01:33
in this country?
28
93812
1150
你会怎么想?
01:36
Well, that's true.
29
96196
1200
是的,这是真的。
01:38
And what if I told you that it's actually killing more people
30
98988
3960
如果再我告诉你,其实它杀害的人
01:42
than we thought to be the case ever before?
31
102972
2508
比我们想象的要多呢?
01:45
That's true, too.
32
105956
1278
这也是真的。
01:48
Smoking kills more people each year than alcohol, AIDS, car accidents,
33
108903
4087
每年死于吸烟的人数 比酒精、艾滋、车祸、
01:53
illegal drugs, murders and suicides combined.
34
113014
3182
非法毒品、谋杀和自杀 加在一起还多。
01:57
Year in and year out.
35
117154
1400
年复一年。
01:59
In 2014,
36
119979
1895
2014 年,
亚当斯博士 【注:美国现任卫生局局长】
02:03
Dr. Adams's predecessor released
37
123177
1694
02:04
the 50th anniversary Surgeon General's report
38
124895
2420
的前任发表了美国卫生总署 关于吸烟与健康的
02:07
on smoking and health.
39
127339
1467
五十周年报告。
02:10
And that report upped the annual death toll from smoking,
40
130133
3730
这份报告还增加了每年 因吸烟而死亡的人数,
02:13
because the list of smoking-related illnesses
41
133887
2650
因为与吸烟有关的疾病
02:16
got bigger.
42
136561
1481
越来越多。
02:18
And so it is now conservatively estimated
43
138066
2194
依据目前的保守估计,
02:20
that smoking kills 480,000 Americans every year.
44
140284
4653
美国每年因吸烟致死 的人数为 48 万。
02:25
These are completely preventable deaths.
45
145414
2904
这些全是可预防的死亡。
02:28
How do we wrap our heads around a statistic like this?
46
148811
3222
我们该如何理解这样的数据呢?
02:32
So much of what we've heard at this conference
47
152057
2644
我们在这次会议上听到很多
02:34
is about individual experiences and personal experiences.
48
154725
4365
个体经历和个人经验。
02:39
How do we deal with this at a population level,
49
159114
2674
我们如何在人口水平上 处理这个问题,
02:41
when there are 480,000 moms,
50
161812
2971
当每年有 48 万母亲、
02:44
dads, sisters, brothers, aunts and uncles
51
164807
4540
父亲、姐妹、兄弟、阿姨和叔叔
02:49
dying unnecessary deaths every year from tobacco?
52
169371
3375
不必要地死于烟草?
02:54
And then what happens when you think about this trajectory
53
174329
3095
当你思考未来的趋势时
02:57
for the future?
54
177448
1258
会发生什么?
02:59
And just do the simple math:
55
179274
1866
只要做简单的计算:
03:01
from the time of the 50th anniversary Surgeon General's report five years ago,
56
181831
4667
从五年前卫生总署的 五十周年报道开始,
03:06
when this horrible statistic was raised,
57
186522
2698
那是这个可怕的统计数据 发表的时间,
03:09
just through mid-century --
58
189244
1747
只用了半个世纪——
03:11
that's more than 17 million avoidable deaths in the United States
59
191857
5490
美国就有超过 1700 万例可避免的
03:17
from tobacco use,
60
197371
1771
因烟草引起的死亡,
03:19
primarily because of cigarettes.
61
199166
1992
主要是由于香烟。
03:21
The Surgeon General concluded
62
201855
2451
卫生总署总结道,
03:24
that 5.6 million children alive in the United States in 2014
63
204330
6955
2014 年美国有 560 万儿童
03:31
will die prematurely later in life because of cigarettes.
64
211309
4428
日后将会因香烟过早死亡。
03:36
Five point six million children.
65
216301
2158
560 万儿童。
03:39
So this is an enormous public health problem for all of us
66
219783
4604
所以这对我们所有人都是 巨大的公共健康问题,
03:44
but especially for us as regulators
67
224411
2297
尤其对我们这些在 FDA
03:46
at the Food and Drug Administration and the Center for Tobacco Products.
68
226732
3655
和烟草制品中心的监管者而言。
03:50
What can we do about it?
69
230411
1600
我们对此能做些什么呢?
03:52
What can we do to reverse this trajectory of disease and death?
70
232752
4611
我们应如何扭转这种 疾病和死亡的趋势?
03:58
Well, we have an interesting guide to help unravel issues
71
238942
5775
我们有个有趣的指南 来帮助解决问题,
04:04
like: How did the cigarette as we know it come to be?
72
244741
3820
比如:我们所知道的 香烟是怎么来的?
04:08
What is the true nature of the tobacco and cigarette business?
73
248942
4081
烟草和卷烟业的真正性质是什么?
04:13
How did the industry behave
74
253650
1310
该行业在历史上不受监管
04:14
in the historically unregulated marketplace?
75
254984
3000
的市场中是如何运作的?
04:18
And our guide
76
258325
1722
我们的指南来自
04:20
is previously secret internal documents from the tobacco industry.
77
260071
4451
烟草行业曾经保持机密的内部文件。
04:25
Come with me
78
265015
1857
和那么请我一起
04:26
in a tobacco industry document time machine.
79
266896
2801
进入烟草业文件的时间机器。
04:31
Nineteen sixty-three
80
271150
1445
1963 年,
04:33
was 25 years before the Surgeon General was finally able to conclude
81
273612
5653
那是在卫生总署于
04:39
that the nicotine and cigarettes was addictive.
82
279289
2754
1998 年得出结论表明
04:42
That did not happen until the Surgeon General's report in 1998.
83
282067
4106
尼古丁和烟草会导致上瘾的 25 年前。
04:47
Nineteen sixty-three
84
287062
2365
1963 年,
04:49
was one year before the first-ever Surgeon General's report in 1964.
85
289451
5341
是 1964 年史上卫生总署 第一次发布报告的前一年。
04:56
I remember 1964.
86
296688
2095
我记得 1964 年。
04:58
I don't remember the Surgeon General's report,
87
298807
2159
我不记得卫生总署的报告了,
05:00
but I remember 1964.
88
300990
1333
但我记得 1964 年。
05:02
I was a kid growing up in Brooklyn, New York.
89
302625
2418
我是个在纽约布鲁克林长大的孩子。
05:05
This was at a time
90
305532
1690
那个时候
05:07
when almost one in two adults in the United States smoked.
91
307246
4041
几乎一半的美国成年人吸烟。
05:12
Both of my parents were heavy smokers at the time.
92
312094
3163
那时我父母都是重度烟民。
05:16
Tobacco use was so incredibly normalized
93
316177
3189
烟草使用极为正常
05:19
that -- and this wasn't North Carolina, Virginia or Kentucky,
94
319390
2930
——这里不是北卡罗莱纳, 不是弗吉尼亚,也不是肯塔基,
05:22
this was Brooklyn --
95
322344
1629
这是布鲁克林——
05:24
we made ashtrays for our parents in arts and crafts class.
96
324828
3551
我们甚至在工艺美术课上 为父母做烟灰缸。
05:28
(Laughter)
97
328403
2277
(笑声)
05:31
The ashtrays I made were pretty awful, but they were ashtrays.
98
331970
2913
我做的烟灰缸很难看,但倒是能用。
05:34
(Laughter)
99
334907
1666
(笑声)
05:36
So normalized that I remember seeing a bowl of loose cigarettes in the foyer
100
336597
5895
平常到我记得在我们家 和其他房子的门厅里
05:42
of our house and other houses
101
342516
2254
有一碗散装香烟
05:44
as a welcoming gesture when friends came over for a visit.
102
344794
3968
作为朋友来访时的招待品。
05:49
OK, we're back in 1963.
103
349609
3093
好了,我们回到 1963 年。
05:53
The top lawyer for Brown and Williamson,
104
353204
1968
当时美国的第三大烟草公司,
05:55
which was then the third-largest cigarette company in the United States,
105
355196
3384
布朗和威廉姆森的首席律师,
05:58
wrote the following:
106
358580
1207
写下了如下句子:
05:59
"Nicotine is addictive.
107
359811
1190
“尼古丁会上瘾。
06:01
We are, then, in the business of selling nicotine -- an addictive drug."
108
361025
3523
我们的业务是出售尼古丁, 一种会让人上瘾的毒品。”
06:05
It's a remarkable statement,
109
365184
1340
这个声明很不可思议,
06:06
as much for what it doesn't say as for what it does say.
110
366548
2623
不仅在于它说出的话, 还在于它没说的内容。
06:09
He didn't say they were in the cigarette business.
111
369195
2365
他没说他们是做香烟生意。
06:11
He didn't say they were in the tobacco business.
112
371584
2293
他没说他们在烟草行业。
06:13
He said they were in the business of selling nicotine.
113
373901
2642
他说他们是销售尼古丁的行业。
06:17
Philip Morris in 1972:
114
377267
1858
1972 年,菲利普·莫里斯公司说: 【注:烟草公司】
06:19
"The cigarette isn't a product,
115
379149
1721
“香烟不是一种产品,
06:20
it's a package.
116
380894
1452
它是个包装。
06:22
The product is nicotine.
117
382712
1600
产品是尼古丁。
06:24
The pack is a storage container for a day's supply of nicotine.
118
384768
4088
烟盒是储存一天所需 尼古丁的容器。
06:28
The cigarette, a dispenser for a dose unit of nicotine."
119
388880
4505
香烟是一剂量单位 尼古丁的分配器。”
06:34
We'll come back to this dose unit notion later.
120
394055
2836
我们稍后会回到剂量单位的概念。
06:37
And R.J. Reynolds in 1972:
121
397906
1881
还有 1972 年的雷诺兹烟草公司:
06:39
"In a sense, the tobacco industry may be thought of as being a specialized,
122
399811
3539
“在某种意义上,烟草行业 可以说是制药行业中
06:43
highly ritualized and stylized segment of the pharmaceutical industry.
123
403374
3746
一个专业化、高度仪式化 和风格化的部门。
06:47
Tobacco products uniquely contain and deliver nicotine,
124
407144
2858
香烟制品独一无二地 包含并投送尼古丁,
06:50
a potent drug with a variety of physiological effects."
125
410026
3299
一种具有多种生理效应的强效药物。”
06:53
At the time, and for many decades, publicly,
126
413764
3103
当时,并且几十年来,
06:56
the industry completely denied addiction
127
416891
2631
这个行业公开地 完全否认上瘾,
06:59
and completely denied causality.
128
419546
2133
完全否认背后的因果关系。
07:02
But they knew the true nature of their business.
129
422163
2581
但他们知道他们生意的真正本质。
07:04
And from time to time,
130
424768
1508
时不时地,
07:06
there have been health scares made public about cigarettes,
131
426300
3641
有关于香烟的健康恐慌 被公诸于众,
07:09
going back many decades.
132
429965
1600
早在几十年前就是如此。
07:11
How did the industry respond?
133
431989
1934
这个行业是如何回应的?
07:14
And how did they respond
134
434330
1199
它们在这个历史上
07:15
in this historically unregulated marketplace?
135
435553
3080
不受监管的市场中是如何反应的?
07:18
Going back to the 1930s,
136
438657
2230
回到 1930 年代,
07:20
it was with advertising that heavily featured imagery of doctors
137
440911
5079
他们在广告中 让医生和其他医护人员
07:26
and other health care professionals
138
446014
1912
传达安抚信息的画面
07:27
sending messages of reassurance.
139
447950
2134
占据了显著位置。
07:30
This is an ad for Lucky Strikes,
140
450617
1635
这是美国好彩公司的一则广告,
07:32
the popular cigarette of the time in the '30s:
141
452276
2412
它是 30 年代流行的香烟产品:
07:34
[20,679 physicians say "Luckies are less irritating."
142
454712
4298
【20679 名医生说:“好彩刺激性更低。”
07:39
Your throat protection against irritation, against cough.]
143
459322
4202
保护喉咙免受刺激,防止咳嗽。】
07:43
(Laughter)
144
463548
2442
(笑声)
07:46
We laugh,
145
466014
1857
我们笑了,
07:47
but this was the kind of advertising
146
467895
1746
但这就是那类广告
07:49
that was there to send a health message of reassurance.
147
469665
2991
用来传递让人放心的健康信息。
07:52
Fast-forward to 1950s, '60s and '70s.
148
472680
3516
快进到 1950 年代, 60 年代和 70 年代。
07:56
And here, again, in the absence of regulation,
149
476220
2952
同样缺乏监管,
07:59
what we're going to see is modifications to the product
150
479196
2777
我们看到了商家通过修改产品
08:01
and product design
151
481997
1698
和产品设计
08:03
to respond to the health concerns of the day.
152
483719
2685
来响应当时的健康顾虑。
08:07
This is the Kent Micronite filter.
153
487664
3429
这是肯特微型过滤器。
08:11
And here, the innovation, if you will, was the filtered cigarette.
154
491117
4538
这里所谓的创新是过滤香烟。
08:16
[Full smoking pleasure ...
155
496395
1682
【吸烟的全部乐趣……
08:18
plus proof of the greatest health protection ever.]
156
498101
2912
再加上有史以来最有效的 健康保护措施。】
08:22
What the smoker of this product didn't know,
157
502244
2928
这个产品的烟民不知道,
08:25
what their doctor didn't know,
158
505196
1921
他们的医生不知道,
08:27
what the government didn't know,
159
507141
2159
他们的政府不知道,
08:29
is that this was a filter that was lined with asbestos --
160
509324
3496
这个过滤器的内衬是石棉——
08:32
(Gasps)
161
512844
1056
(惊呼)
08:33
so that when smokers were smoking this filtered cigarette
162
513924
2714
所以当吸烟者 吸食过滤香烟时
08:36
and still inhaling the chemicals and smoke
163
516662
2516
仍然吸入化学物质和烟雾,
08:39
that we know are associated with cancer and lung disease
164
519202
3206
这些我们知道跟癌症、肺病
08:42
and heart disease,
165
522432
1209
和心脏病相关的东西,
08:43
they were also sucking down asbestos fibers.
166
523665
2433
他们还在吮吸石棉纤维。
08:46
(Gasps)
167
526112
1000
(惊呼)
08:48
In the 1960s and the 1970s,
168
528236
2555
在 1960 和 1970 年代,
08:50
the so-called innovation was the light cigarette.
169
530815
3524
所谓的创新是淡味香烟。
08:55
This is a typical brand of the day called True.
170
535490
3479
这是当时一个典型品牌, 叫做 True。
08:59
And this is after the Surgeon General's reports have started coming out.
171
539477
3437
这是在卫生总署报告 开始发行后出现的。
09:02
And you see the look of concern on her face.
172
542938
2309
你可以看到她脸上的担忧。
09:05
[Considering all I'd heard,
173
545271
1312
【考虑到我听到的一切,
09:06
I decided to either quit or smoke True.
174
546607
2796
我决定,要么不戒烟, 要么抽 True。
09:09
I smoke True.]
175
549427
1406
我选择 True。】
09:10
(Laughter)
176
550857
1538
(笑声)
09:12
[The low tar, low nicotine cigarette.]
177
552419
2942
【低焦油,低尼古丁香烟。】
09:15
And then it says, "Think about it."
178
555385
1916
然后它说,“考虑一下。”
09:17
And then even below that in the small print
179
557325
3278
然后在更下面的地方, 用小字写着
09:20
are tar numbers and nicotine numbers.
180
560627
2880
焦油和尼古丁数据。
09:24
What was a light cigarette?
181
564333
2119
什么是淡味香烟?
09:27
How did it work?
182
567474
1468
它的原理是什么?
09:30
This is an illustration of the product modification
183
570474
2698
这个图例展示了
被称为“过滤通风”的产品修改设计。
09:33
known as "filter ventilation."
184
573196
2534
这并不是真正过滤器的放大图。
09:36
That's not a real filter blown up.
185
576128
1659
09:37
That's just a picture
186
577811
1190
这只是张图示,能让你看到
09:39
so that you could see the rows of laser-perforated ventilation holes
187
579025
3206
在过滤器上的
一排排激光穿孔的通风孔。
09:42
that were put on the filter.
188
582255
1356
09:43
When you look at a real cigarette,
189
583635
1632
现实中你观察香烟时,
09:45
it's harder to see.
190
585291
1516
它很难看到。
09:46
Every patent for this product shows
191
586831
2114
这种产品的每一项专利都说明
09:48
that the ventilation holes should be 12 millimeters
192
588969
3402
通风孔应和过滤器的唇端
相距 12 毫米。
09:52
from the lip end of the filter.
193
592395
1769
09:54
How did it work?
194
594188
1308
它的原理是怎样的?
09:56
The cigarette got stuck into a machine.
195
596458
2238
把香烟塞进机器里。
09:59
The machine started puffing away on the cigarette
196
599950
2341
机器开始吞云吐雾地吸烟,
10:02
and recording tar and nicotine levels.
197
602315
2437
并记录下焦油和尼古丁的含量。
10:05
As the machine smoked,
198
605061
1730
当机器抽烟时,
10:06
outside air came through those ventilation holes
199
606815
3445
外部空气进入这些通风孔,
10:10
and diluted the amount of smoke that was coming through the cigarette.
200
610284
3912
稀释了香烟产生的烟雾。
10:14
So as the machine smoked,
201
614220
2087
所以当机器抽烟时,
10:16
there really was less tar and nicotine being delivered
202
616331
2543
确实比常规香烟输送的
10:18
compared to a regular cigarette.
203
618898
1847
焦油和尼古丁要少。
10:21
What the tobacco industry knew
204
621975
1785
烟草工业知道
10:23
was that human beings don't smoke like machines.
205
623784
3064
人类不像机器那样抽烟。
10:27
How do human beings smoke this?
206
627713
2066
人类是如何抽烟的?
10:30
Where do the fingers go?
207
630816
1600
手指放在哪里呢?
10:32
(Murmurs)
208
632440
1240
(低语)
10:33
Where do the lips go?
209
633704
1400
嘴唇应该放在哪里?
10:35
I told you that the patent said
210
635474
1492
我说过,专利说
10:36
that the holes are 12 millimeters from the lip end.
211
636990
3024
通风孔距唇端 12 毫米。
10:40
The smoker didn't even know they were there,
212
640038
2238
吸烟者甚至不知道它们在那里,
10:42
but between fingers and lips, the holes get blocked.
213
642300
3799
但在手指和嘴唇之间, 通风孔被挡住了。
10:46
And when the holes get blocked, it's no longer a light cigarette.
214
646505
3714
当这些小孔被堵住时, 它就不再是淡味香烟了。
10:50
Turns out that there's actually
215
650807
1532
结果实际上,
10:52
basically as much nicotine inside a light cigarette
216
652363
2706
淡味香烟里面的尼古丁含量
其实跟常规香烟一样。
10:55
as a regular cigarette.
217
655093
1206
10:56
The difference was what's on the outside.
218
656323
1966
差异在于外面的东西。
10:58
But once you block what's on the outside,
219
658313
3246
但一旦你挡住外面的东西,
11:01
it's a regular cigarette.
220
661583
1547
它就是一支常规的香烟。
11:04
Congress put FDA in the business of regulating tobacco products
221
664821
3011
10 年前的六月,国会让 FDA
11:07
10 years ago this June.
222
667856
1475
介入烟草监管。
11:09
So you heard the statistics at the beginning
223
669355
2325
于是你在开头听到了那些
11:11
about the extraordinary contribution to disease and death that cigarettes make.
224
671704
4660
香烟导致疾病和死亡的惊人统计。
11:16
We've also been paying a lot of attention
225
676754
2028
我们也把很多注意力放到
11:18
to how the cigarette works as a drug-delivery device
226
678806
3860
香烟作为药物传输设备的工作原理
11:22
and the remarkable efficiency with which it delivers nicotine.
227
682690
3558
以及它传递尼古丁的非凡效率。
11:26
So let's take a look.
228
686272
1400
那么让我们看看。
11:28
When the smoker puffs on the cigarette,
229
688844
2761
当吸烟者吸一口烟时,
11:31
the nicotine from that puff gets up into the brain
230
691629
3207
这口烟里的尼古丁 会在不到 10 秒内
11:34
in less than 10 seconds.
231
694860
1809
进入大脑。
11:37
Less than 10 seconds.
232
697252
1476
不到 10 秒。
11:39
Up in the brain,
233
699300
1729
在大脑里,
11:41
there are these things called "nicotinic receptors."
234
701053
2865
有叫“尼古丁受体”的东西。
11:44
They're there ...
235
704929
1475
它们在那里……
11:46
waiting.
236
706428
1164
等待着。
11:47
They're waiting for, in the words of that Philip Morris document,
237
707945
3262
它们在等待,用菲利普·莫里斯 公司那份文件的话来说,
11:51
the next "dose unit of nicotine."
238
711231
2066
下一个“剂量单位”的尼古丁。
11:55
The smoker that you see outside,
239
715252
2666
你看到在外面的吸烟者,
11:57
huddled with other smokers,
240
717942
1889
跟其他吸烟者挤在一起,
11:59
in the cold,
241
719855
1484
在寒冷中,
12:01
in the wind,
242
721363
1262
在风中,
12:02
in the rain,
243
722649
1693
在雨中,
12:04
is experiencing craving
244
724366
2254
正在经历渴望,
12:06
and may be experiencing the symptoms of withdrawal.
245
726644
2698
并可能正在经历戒断症状。
12:10
Those symptoms of withdrawal are a chemical message
246
730564
3561
戒断症状是这些受体
12:14
that these receptors are sending to the body,
247
734149
2140
传递给身体的化学信息,
12:16
saying, "Feed me!"
248
736313
1556
说,“喂我!”
12:20
And a product that can deliver the drug in less than 10 seconds
249
740490
5848
一个可以在10 秒内 传递药物的产品
12:27
turns out to be an incredibly efficient and incredibly addictive product.
250
747230
4730
结果成为一种难以置信 的高效和上瘾的产品。
12:33
We've spoken to so many addiction treatment experts
251
753379
3087
多年来,我们跟很多成瘾治疗专家
12:36
over the years.
252
756490
1150
交谈过。
12:38
And the story I hear is the same over and over again:
253
758053
3306
我听到同样的故事不断重复:
12:41
"Long after I was able to get somebody off of heroin
254
761383
2484
“我早就能让某人戒掉海洛因、
12:43
or cocaine or crack cocaine,
255
763891
2714
可卡因或强效纯可卡因,
12:46
I can't get them to quit cigarettes."
256
766629
2048
但我无法让他们戒烟。”
12:49
A large part of the explanation is the 10-second thing.
257
769145
3187
很大一部分解释是 那个 10 秒钟。
12:54
FDA has it within its regulatory reach
258
774081
3754
FDA 已经在监管范围内
12:57
to use the tools of product regulation
259
777859
2374
使用产品监管工具
13:00
to render cigarettes as we know them minimally or nonaddictive.
260
780257
4370
让我们所知的香烟 成瘾性最低或不成瘾。
13:06
We're working on this.
261
786030
1466
我们正在为此努力。
13:08
And this could have a profound impact at a population level
262
788046
4046
这一个政策可能在人口层面上
13:12
from this one policy.
263
792116
1461
产生深远的影响。
13:14
We did dynamic population-level modeling a year ago,
264
794124
2463
一年前我们做了人口层面 的动态建模,
13:16
and we published the results in "The New England Journal."
265
796611
2734
我们在《新英格兰杂志》 上发表了研究结果。
13:19
And because of the generational effect of this policy,
266
799369
2553
因为这项政策的世代效应,
13:21
which I'll explain in a minute,
267
801946
1491
我马上会解释,
13:23
here's what we project out through the end of the century:
268
803461
2807
这是我们预测到的本世纪末的情况:
13:26
more than 33 million people
269
806292
1682
超过 3300 万
13:27
who would otherwise have gone on to become regular smokers won't,
270
807998
3682
本来会成为常规吸烟者的人 不会成为吸烟者,
13:31
because the cigarette that they'll be experimenting with
271
811704
2641
因为他们将要试验的香烟
13:34
can't create or sustain addiction.
272
814369
1740
不会产生或维持成瘾。
13:36
This would drive the adult smoking rate down to less than one and a half percent.
273
816569
3913
这将使成人吸烟率 下降到 1.5% 以下。
13:41
And these two things combined
274
821450
1883
这两件事情相结合
13:44
would result in the saving of more than eight million cigarette-related deaths
275
824107
5484
可以拯救那些本会因
世代影响而导致的
13:49
that would otherwise have occurred
276
829615
2229
800 多万例吸烟有关的死亡。
13:51
from the generational impact of this.
277
831868
2023
13:53
Now, why am I saying "generational"?
278
833915
2267
为什么我提到“世代”?
13:57
It's about kids.
279
837367
1389
这跟儿童有关。
14:00
Ninety percent of adult smokers started smoking when they were kids.
280
840090
3318
90% 的成人吸烟者 从孩童时期就开始吸烟。
14:04
Half of them became regular smokers
281
844121
2103
其中一半人在合法购烟年龄前
14:06
before they were legally old enough to buy a pack of cigarettes.
282
846248
3409
就成为了老烟民。
14:10
Half of them became regular smokers before they were 18 years old.
283
850287
3179
其中一半人在 18 岁之前 就成为了老烟民。
14:13
Experimentation.
284
853490
1150
尝试。
14:15
Regular smoking.
285
855212
1150
惯常吸烟。
14:16
Addiction.
286
856728
1150
上瘾。
14:18
Decades of smoking.
287
858522
1341
数十年烟龄。
14:19
And then the illness,
288
859887
1603
然后是疾病,
14:21
and that's why we're talking about a product
289
861514
2147
这就是为什么我们讨论的这个产品
14:23
that will kill half of all long-term users prematurely later in life.
290
863685
3969
会让一半的长期使用者 在以后过早死亡。
14:28
The generational impact of this nicotine-reduction policy
291
868880
3306
这个减少尼古丁的政策会带来深远
14:32
is profound.
292
872210
1324
的世代影响。
14:34
Those old industry documents had a word for young people.
293
874817
2925
那些旧的行业文件中用 一个词形容年轻人。
14:38
They were described as "the replacement smokers."
294
878323
2953
他们被称为“替代吸烟者”。
14:42
The replacement smokers for addicted adult smokers
295
882577
2365
替代那些死亡或戒烟
14:44
who died or quit.
296
884966
1150
的成年烟民。
14:46
Future generations of kids, especially teens,
297
886533
3770
未来世代的小孩,尤其是青少年,
14:50
are going to engage in risky behavior.
298
890327
1968
将会进行高风险行为。
14:52
We can't stop that.
299
892319
1267
我们无法阻止他们。
14:54
But what if the only cigarette that they could get their hands on
300
894010
4001
但如果他们唯一能入手的香烟
14:58
could no longer create or sustain addiction?
301
898035
2289
无法产生或维持上瘾会怎样?
15:00
That's the public health return on investment
302
900839
2611
这是长期在人口层面上投资
15:03
at a population level over time.
303
903474
2412
的公共健康回报。
15:07
Haven't said anything about e-cigarettes.
304
907132
2064
我还没有说到任何有关 电子烟的事情。
15:09
But I have to say something about e-cigarettes.
305
909521
2206
但我得谈一下电子烟。
15:11
(Laughter)
306
911751
1017
(笑声)
15:12
We are dealing with an epidemic of kids' use of e-cigarettes.
307
912792
2872
我们正在应对电子烟 在小孩中的流行使用。
15:15
And what troubles us the most,
308
915688
2159
最让我们感到困扰的,
15:17
in combination with the rising numbers when it comes to prevalence,
309
917871
4381
是与不断上升的流行率相结合的
15:22
is frequency.
310
922276
1404
使用频率。
15:23
Not only are more kids using e-cigarettes,
311
923704
2329
不仅有更多小孩在使用电子烟,
15:26
but more kids are using e-cigarettes 20 or more days in the past 30 days
312
926057
4080
而且自电子烟推出市场以来, 在过去 30 天中
使用电子烟 20 天以上 的小孩数目达到了新高。
15:30
than at any time since e-cigarettes came onto the market.
313
930161
2777
15:32
And at FDA, we're doing everything that we can
314
932962
2222
在 FDA,我们正倾尽全力
使用项目和政策,
15:35
using program and policy,
315
935208
1258
15:36
first to get the word out to kids
316
936490
1619
首先向小孩传递信息说,
15:38
that this is not a harmless product
317
938133
2071
这不是一种无害的产品,
15:40
and to make sure that kids aren't initiating and experimenting
318
940228
2935
并确保孩子不会主动开始或尝试
15:43
on any tobacco product,
319
943187
1160
任何烟草制品,
15:44
whether combustion is present or not.
320
944371
1880
无论是否需要点燃。
15:46
But think about e-cigarettes in a properly regulated marketplace
321
946569
3121
但是想想电子烟在 一个合理监管的市场上,
15:49
as something that could be of benefit
322
949714
1923
对于那些试图戒掉香烟
15:51
to addicted adult cigarette smokers
323
951661
2120
的上瘾成年吸烟者来说
15:53
who are trying to transition away from cigarettes.
324
953805
2356
可能是有益的。
15:56
So, I'll leave you with this vision:
325
956185
3531
所以,我将留给你们如下的愿景:
16:01
imagine a world
326
961748
1651
想象这样一个世界,
16:04
where the only cigarette that future generations of kids
327
964077
2672
因为一个政策,
未来世代的儿童
16:06
could experiment with
328
966773
1161
16:07
could no longer create or sustain addiction
329
967958
2238
唯一能够尝试到的香烟
无法再产生或维持上瘾。
16:10
because of a single policy.
330
970220
1737
16:12
Imagine a world
331
972585
1178
想象这样一个世界,
16:14
where health-concerned cigarette smokers,
332
974534
2686
关注健康的吸烟者
可以过渡到危害更小的
16:17
especially if a policy goes into effect
333
977244
2896
其它尼古丁传递形式,
16:20
that takes the nicotine levels down to minimally or nonaddictive levels,
334
980164
3604
尤其是在让尼古丁水平降低到 最低或不上瘾程度
16:23
could transition to alternative and less harmful forms
335
983792
2542
的政策开始生效时。
16:26
of nicotine delivery,
336
986358
1315
16:27
starting with FDA-approved nicotine medications,
337
987697
2253
他们可以从 FDA 批准的 尼古丁药物开始,
16:29
like the gum, patch and lozenge.
338
989974
1937
比如口香糖、贴片和嚼锭。
16:32
And finally,
339
992704
1191
最后,
16:33
imagine a world and a properly regulated marketplace,
340
993919
2849
想象这样一个世界和 一个合理监管的市场,
16:36
whether it's e-cigarettes or whatever the technology of the day,
341
996792
3214
无论是电子烟还是 任何当时的科技,
16:40
it's not the product developers and the marketers
342
1000030
2301
都不是由产品开发者和市场营销者
决定什么产品进入市场
16:42
who decide which products come to market
343
1002355
1945
16:44
and what claims get made for them,
344
1004324
1809
以及对产品做出声明,
16:46
it's review scientists at FDA,
345
1006157
2872
而是由 FDA 的审批科学家
16:49
who look at applications
346
1009053
1580
审查申请,
16:50
and decide, using the standard that Congress has entrusted us
347
1010657
3674
并使用国会委托我们
实现和执行的标准,
16:54
to implement and enforce,
348
1014355
2055
来决定一个特定的产品 是否能够进入市场,
16:56
whether a particular product should come to market,
349
1016434
2833
16:59
because the marketing of that product and the words of our law
350
1019291
3238
因为那个产品的营销 和我们遵循的法律
17:02
would be appropriate for the protection of the public health.
351
1022553
3172
应当有益于保护公众健康。
17:06
These are the kinds of powerful regulatory tools
352
1026297
2305
这些都是我们可以使用的
17:08
that are within our reach
353
1028626
2988
强有力的监管工具,
17:11
to deal with what remains
354
1031638
1376
可以用来处理这个国家的
17:13
the leading cause of completely preventable disease and death
355
1033038
3253
完全可预防的疾病和死亡
17:16
in the country.
356
1036315
1159
的要因。
17:17
If we get this right,
357
1037498
1267
如果我们正确处理,
17:19
that trajectory, those 5.6 million kids,
358
1039657
4589
就能打破那个趋势,
拯救那 560 万儿童。
17:24
is breakable.
359
1044270
1341
17:25
Thank you.
360
1045635
1151
谢谢。
17:26
(Applause)
361
1046810
2713
(鼓掌)
关于本网站

这个网站将向你介绍对学习英语有用的YouTube视频。你将看到来自世界各地的一流教师教授的英语课程。双击每个视频页面上显示的英文字幕,即可从那里播放视频。字幕会随着视频的播放而同步滚动。如果你有任何意见或要求,请使用此联系表与我们联系。

https://forms.gle/WvT1wiN1qDtmnspy7