Gregory Stock: To upgrade is human

44,263 views ・ 2009-04-14

TED


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翻译人员: Yeno Rosenbluth 校对人员: Jenny Yang
00:12
The future of life, where the unraveling of our biology --
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未来的生活,以及目前生物学发展方向的——
00:16
and bring up the lights a little bit. I don't have any slides.
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请把灯调亮一点,我不打算使用幻灯片。
00:18
I'm just going to talk --
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只是单纯的谈论——
00:21
about where that's likely to carry us.
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生物学的发展可能把我们引向何方。
00:23
And you know, I saw all the visions
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在看过前面这些演讲
00:27
of the first couple of sessions.
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对于未来的构想之后。
00:29
It almost made me feel a little bit guilty about having an uplifting talk
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我甚至有一点负罪感,因为你们即将听到的
00:32
about the future.
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是对于未来的乐观估计。
00:34
It felt wrong to do that in some way.
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这样做感觉好像有点怪。
00:36
And yet, I don't really think it is
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然而,实际上我并不这样想,
00:38
because when it comes down to it,
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因为尘埃落定之后,争论会烟消云散
00:40
it's this larger trajectory that is really what is going to remain --
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只有重大的轨迹才会真正存留
00:44
what people in the future are going to remember about this period.
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成为未来人们对这段时期的唯一记忆。
00:48
I want to talk to you a little bit about
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我想对你们谈论的事情包括
00:51
why the visions of Jeremy Rivkins,
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为什么Jeremy Rivkins
00:55
who would like to ban these sorts of technologies,
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禁止这些技术的理论
00:58
or of the Bill Joys who would like to relinquish them,
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或者Bill Joys关于放弃这些技术的想法
01:02
are actually -- to follow those paths would be such a tragedy for us.
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实际上对我们是一场悲剧。
01:07
I'm focusing on biology,
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我正在关注的是生物学,
01:10
the biological sciences.
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关于生命的科学。
01:12
The reason I'm doing that is because those are going to be
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我这样做是因为将对我们产生重大意义的领域
01:15
the areas that are the most significant to us.
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正集中在生物学之中。
01:19
The reason for that is really very simple.
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理由很简单,
01:21
It's because we're flesh and blood.
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因为我们都是血肉之躯。
01:23
We're biological creatures.
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我们就是生命。
01:25
And what we can do with our biology
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因此生物学的进展
01:29
is going to shape our future
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将塑造我们的未来
01:31
and that of our children and that of their children --
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以及我们子子孙孙的未来——
01:34
whether we gain control over aging,
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我们能否控制衰老?
01:36
whether we learn to protect ourselves from Alzheimer's,
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是否能保护自己不受阿尔兹海默症的侵扰?
01:40
and heart disease, and cancer.
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或者远离心血管疾病以及癌症?
01:42
I think that Shakespeare really put it very nicely.
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我认为莎士比亚说得很好,
01:46
And I'm actually going to use his words in the same order that he did.
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所以我就原封不动的引用一下。
01:49
(Laughter)
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(笑)
01:51
He said, "And so from hour to hour
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他说:“每时每刻,
01:54
we ripe and ripe.
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我们在成长。
01:57
And then from hour to hour we rot and rot.
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每时每刻,我们在衰老。
01:59
And thereby hangs a tale."
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我们的故事就在这每时每刻之间。
02:01
Life is short, you know.
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瞧,人生是短暂的。
02:03
And we need to think about planning a little bit.
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所以我们需要一点点规划。
02:05
We're all going to eventually, even in the developed world,
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即使在最发达的国家,我们最终也将
02:10
going to have to lose everything that we love.
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失去所有自己珍爱的东西。
02:13
When you're beginning to rot a little bit,
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当我们开始衰老,
02:16
all of the videos crammed into your head,
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各种回忆就开始将脑袋塞得满满当当,
02:18
all of the extensions that extend your various powers,
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你的权利、地位、财富等等,曾经是你生命力的延伸,
02:22
are going to being to seem a little secondary.
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那时看来将变得无足轻重。
02:26
And you know, I'm getting a little bit gray -- so is Ray Kurzweil,
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你看,我变得有点儿悲观了,就像Ray Kurzweil(计算机科学家,认为人工智能终会超越人类智能),
02:30
so is Eric Drexler.
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或者Eric Drexler(纳米技术先驱,预言失去控制的自我复制机器将耗尽地球资源,带来世界末日)。
02:32
This is where it's really central to our lives.
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这才是我们生命的关键。
02:35
Now I know there's been a whole lot of hype
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我知道,现在已经有太多的炒作
02:37
about our power to control biology.
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针对于我们控制生命的能力。
02:40
You just have to look at the Human Genome Project.
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以人类基因组计划为例。
02:42
It wasn't two years ago
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就在不到两年前
02:44
that everybody was talking about --
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每个人都在谈论着
02:46
we've found the Holy Grail of biology.
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我们找到了生物学的圣杯。
02:48
We're deciphering the code of codes.
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我们破译了生命的密码。
02:50
We're reading the book of life.
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我们正在阅读生命之书。
02:53
It's a little bit reminiscent of 1969 when Neil Armstrong walked on the moon,
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这是人不禁想起1969年尼尔·阿姆斯特朗在月球行走时的情形。
02:57
and everybody was about to race out toward the stars.
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当时每个人都认为我们即将奔向浩瀚星空。
03:01
And we've all seen "2001: A Space Odyssey."
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我们也都看过2001太空漫游。
03:04
You know it's 2003, and there is no HAL.
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然而现在已经是2003年了,HAL仍不见踪影。
03:08
And there is no odyssey to our own moon, much less the moons of Jupiter.
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我们还不能在自己的卫星上漫游,更别说去木星的卫星了。
03:12
And we're still picking up pieces of the Challenger.
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我们至今还在收拾挑战者号的残骸
03:15
So it's not surprising that some people would wonder
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所以,我不会感到奇怪有些人会疑惑
03:19
whether maybe 30 or 40 years from now,
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30或40年后
03:22
we'll look back at this instant in time,
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我们再回首此刻
03:24
and all of the sort of talk about
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我们讨论的的这一切
03:27
the Human Genome Project,
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关于人类基因组计划的争论
03:29
and what all this is going to mean to us --
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到底对我们意味着什么
03:31
well, it will really mean precious little.
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它的意义是否微乎其微
03:35
And I just want to say that that is absolutely not going to be the case.
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我想说的是,这种事情不会发生。
03:39
Because when we talk about our genetics and our biology,
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因为当我们谈论遗传学和生物学,
03:44
and modifying and altering and adjusting these things,
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谈论基因修饰、改造和调整时,
03:46
we're talking about changing ourselves.
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我们谈论的实际是改造我们自己。
03:49
And this is very critical stuff.
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这就非同小可了。
03:51
If you have any doubts about how technology affects our lives,
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关于科技对我们生活的影响,如果你有任何疑问,
03:55
you just have to go to any major city.
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就随便去个大城市看看吧。
03:57
This is not the stomping ground
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这已经不是我们的爪哇人祖先
03:59
of our Pleistocene ancestors.
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所熟悉的故土了。
04:01
What's happening is we're taking this technology --
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当我们谈论这些科技,
04:04
it's becoming more precise, more potent --
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科技本身正愈加精细和强大,
04:06
and we're turning it back upon ourselves.
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并正在对我们自己造成影响。
04:09
Before it's all done
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不久之后,
04:11
we are going to alter ourselves
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我们对自身的改造,
04:13
every bit as much as we have changed the world around us.
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就将像对周围世界的改造一样巨大。
04:16
It's going to happen a lot sooner
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所有这些,都会在人们所预想的
04:18
than people imagine.
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时间之前发生。
04:20
On the way there it's going to
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随之而来的
04:23
completely revolutionize medicine and health care; that's obvious.
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是医药和卫生的革命性变化。这显而易见。
04:26
It's going to change the way we have children.
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这将会改变我们生孩子的方式。
04:28
It's going to change the way we manage
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改变我们控制
04:30
and alter our emotions.
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和调整自我情绪的途径。
04:32
It's going to probably change the human lifespan.
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很有可能还会改变人类寿命。
04:34
It will really make us question
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所有这些都促使我们思考,
04:36
what it is to be a human being.
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到底什么才是人类的本质。
04:40
The larger context of this is that are
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这个问题的背景,
04:42
two unprecedented revolutions that are going on today.
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是现在正在发生的、史无前例的两种变革。
04:48
The first of them is the obvious one,
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第一种,很明显,
04:50
the silicon revolution,
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是计算机革命。
04:52
which you all are very, very familiar with.
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这我们都很熟悉。
04:55
It's changing our lives in so many ways,
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计算机在太多方面改变了我们的生活,
04:57
and it will continue to do that.
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并将继续给我们带来更多改变。
04:59
What the essence of that is, is that we're taking
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这种变化的本质,
05:01
the sand at our feet, the inert silicon at our feet,
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是我们取出脚下的泥土,无生命的硅,
05:05
and we're breathing a level of complexity into it
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赋予它一定的复杂性。
05:07
that rivals that of life itself,
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这种复杂性可以与生命相当,
05:09
and may even surpass it.
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甚至可能超过生命。
05:12
As an outgrowth of that, as a child of that revolution,
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上述计算机革命的结果,是作为计算机革命之子的
05:15
is the revolution in biology.
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生物学的变革。
05:17
The genomics revolution,
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基因组学革命,
05:19
proteomics, metabolomics, all of these "omics"
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蛋白质组学,代谢组学,所有这些字眼
05:22
that sound so terrific on grants and on business plans.
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在经费申请和商业计划中显得如此漂亮。
05:25
What we're doing is we are
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我们正在做的,
05:30
seizing control of our evolutionary future.
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是努力获取自身未来进化的控制权。
05:33
I mean we're essentially using technology
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归根到底,是在用科技
05:35
to just jam evolution into fast-forward.
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将进化速率调快。
05:38
It's not at all clear where it's going to take us.
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这种改变的结果还不清晰。
05:41
But in five to ten years we're going to start see
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但是在5到10年之内,我们会看到
05:44
some very profound changes.
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许多深刻变化。
05:46
The most immediate changes that we'll see
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最容易被观察到的,
05:48
are things like in medicine.
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是医药等的变化。
05:50
There is going to be a big shift towards preventative medicine
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预防医药将会占越来越大的比例,
05:53
as we start to be able to identify
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因为我们开始能够
05:55
all of the risk factors that we have as individuals.
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确认个体的患病因素。
05:58
But who is going to pay for all this?
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但是,谁在为此买单?
06:00
And how are we going to understand all this complex information?
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我们如何理解这些繁杂的信息?
06:04
That is going to be the IT challenge
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这将是下一代面临的巨大挑战——
06:07
of the next generation, is communicating all this information.
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信息的交流。
06:11
There's pharmacogenomics, the combination of pharmacology
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这就是医药遗传学——医药学与
06:13
and genetics:
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遗传学的结合——
06:16
tailoring drugs to our individual constitutions
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针对个体体质的医药,
06:18
that Juan talked about a little bit earlier.
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Juan在前面已经有所涉及。
06:21
That's going to have amazing impacts.
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这种变化的影响是巨大的。
06:24
And it's going to be used for diet as well,
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个体差异化还会被应用在饮食上,
06:27
and nutritional supplements and such.
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以及营养摄入等领域。
06:29
But it's going to have a big impact because
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这将会产生巨大影响,
06:31
we're going to have niche drugs.
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因为我们将会拥有针对性药品,
06:33
And we aren't going to be able to support
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以后,我们也不会再承担
06:36
the kinds of expenses that we have to create blockbuster drugs today.
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用以制作畅销药品的种种费用。
06:39
The approval process is going to fall apart, actually.
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药品的批准过程将会瓦解。
06:44
It's too slow.
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因为它太慢。
06:46
It's too risk-averse.
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过于惧怕风险,
06:48
And it is really not suited for the future
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实在不适合我们的未来,
06:51
that we're moving into.
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我们即将进入的未来。
06:53
Another thing is that we're just going to have to deal with this knowledge.
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另外,对于新的生物学知识,我们要学会如何处理。
06:55
It's really wonderful when we hear,
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有些论断让我们倾心不已:
06:57
"Oh, 99.9 percent of the letters in the code are the same.
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“哇!我们共享着生命密码的99.9%。
07:02
We're all identical to each other. Isn't it wonderful?"
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我们跟其他人是一样的。难道这不是太奇妙了吗?”
07:06
And look around you and know
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但是当你转过头,你就会知道
07:08
that what we really care about is
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我们真正关心的
07:10
that little bit of difference.
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却是那一点点不同。
07:12
We look the same to a visitor from another planet, maybe,
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也许从外星人看来我们都是一样的,
07:15
but not to each other
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但是我们却不这样认为,
07:17
because we compete with each other all time.
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因为我们一直在与其他人竞争。
07:19
And we're going to have to come to grips with the fact
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我们将不得不认识到,
07:22
that there are differences between us as individuals that we will know about,
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将来我们之间会有许多不同,无论是个人与个人之间
07:25
and between subpopulations of humans as well.
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还是人类各亚群之间。
07:29
To deny that that's the case is not a very good start on that.
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否认并不是很好的开始。
07:33
A generation or so away
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再过一代左右,
07:36
there are going to be even more profound things that are going to happen.
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更加影响深远的事情会发生。
07:39
That's when we're going to begin to use this knowledge to modify ourselves.
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那时我们将会开始利用这些知识来改变我们自身。
07:43
Now I don't mean extra gills or something --
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我说的可不是多一个鳃什么的——
07:46
something we care about, like aging.
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而是我们关心的事情,例如衰老。
07:48
What if we could unravel aging and understand it --
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如果我们可以揭开衰老的秘密,理解衰老,进而阻止甚至逆转衰老的过程,
07:52
begin to retard the process or even reverse it?
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世界将会怎样?
07:55
It would change absolutely everything.
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那时一切都会被改变。
07:57
And it's obvious to anyone,
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任何人都会明白,
07:59
that if we can do this, we absolutely will do this,
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如果我们可以这样做,我们肯定是会这样做的,
08:02
whatever the consequences are.
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无论结果如何。
08:04
The second is modifying our emotions.
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第二点是修饰我们的情感。
08:08
I mean Ritalin, Viagra,
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我指的是Ritalin, Viagra这样的药,
08:12
things of that sort, Prozac.
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还有Prozac。
08:14
You know, this is just clumsy little baby steps.
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你瞧,这只是开始,就像婴儿笨拙的爬行。
08:16
What if you could take a little
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但是假如我们可以
08:19
concoction of pharmaceuticals
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通过服用一点儿混合药品,
08:22
that would make you feel really contented,
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来感到真正的满足,
08:25
just happy to be you.
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感到生而为人的由衷喜悦,又会如何呢?
08:27
Are you going to be able to resist that if it doesn't have any overt side effects?
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如果没有任何副作用,你能拒绝它吗?
08:30
Probably not.
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大概不能。
08:32
And if you don't, who are you going to be?
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但是既然你没有拒绝,你将会变得怎样?
08:34
Why do you do what you do?
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为什么你会这样做?
08:36
We're sort of circumventing evolutionary programs that guide our behavior.
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某种程度上,我们是在回避用于指导我们行为的进化程序。
08:39
It's going to be very challenging to deal with.
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面对这一点很有挑战性。
08:41
The third area is reproduction.
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第三个领域是生育。
08:45
The idea that we're going to chose our children's genes,
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概括来说,既然我们可以知道各种基因的作用,
08:48
as we begin to understand what genes say about who we are.
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我们就可以选择自己孩子的基因。
08:52
That's the focus of my book "Redesigning Humans,"
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这就是我的《人类再设计》这本书所关注的。
08:54
where I talk about the kinds of choices we'll make,
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书中谈论了我们将要面临的种种选择,
08:56
and the challenges it's going to present to society.
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以及这种情况对未来社会所造成的挑战。
08:59
There are three obvious ways of doing this.
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为实现这一点,有三条明显的道路。
09:01
The first is cloning.
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第一是克隆。
09:03
It didn't happen.
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这并没有发生。
09:05
It's a total media circus.
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完全是媒体在杂耍
09:07
It will happen in five to 10 years.
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克隆将在未来5到10年内发生。
09:09
And when it does it's not going to be that big a deal.
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到那时,并不会成为什么大事情。
09:12
The birth of a delayed identical twin
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一个延迟出生的同卵双胞胎
09:14
is not going to shake western civilization.
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将不会动摇西方文明。
09:19
But there are more important things that are already occurring:
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更加重要的事情正在发生:
09:22
embryo screening.
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胚胎筛选。
09:24
You take a six to eight cell embryo,
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一个6-8细胞胚胎,
09:27
you tease out one of the cells, you run a genetic test on that cell,
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你从中取出一个细胞,对它进行基因测试,
09:30
and depending on the results of that test
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依照测试的结果,
09:32
you either implant that embryo or you discard it.
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你选择植入这个胚胎或者丢弃它。
09:35
It's already done to avoid rare diseases today.
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今天,这种操作已经被用于避免罕见疾病。
09:38
And pretty soon it's going to be possible
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不久之后,所有遗传疾病都有可能
09:41
to avoid virtually all genetic diseases in that way.
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通过这种途径来避免。
09:45
As that becomes possible
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那时,
09:48
this is going to move from something that is used by those who
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进行这种操作的人群将会从
09:51
have infertility problems and are already doing in vitro fertilization,
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因为有生育问题而进行人工受精的人
09:54
to the wealthy who want to protect their children,
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发展到有钱人用它来保留自己的下一代
09:57
to just about everybody else.
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并最终转移至几乎所有人。
09:59
And in that process that's going to morph
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在这个过程中,
10:01
from being just for diseases,
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一开始对于疾病的避免,
10:03
to being for lesser vulnerabilities,
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降低易感性,
10:05
like risk of manic depression or something,
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比如抑郁症等等,
10:08
to picking personalities,
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会逐渐发展成对于个性的挑选,
10:11
temperaments, traits, these sorts of things.
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对性格、特征等等的挑选。
10:14
Of course there is going to be genetic engineering.
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基因工程将不可避免。
10:17
Directly going in -- it's a little bit further away, but not that far away --
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发展的方向将是——现在说有点早,但离我们也不太远——
10:20
going in and altering the genes in the first cell in an embryo.
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改变胚胎第一个细胞的基因。
10:25
The way I suspect it will happen
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我猜测
10:28
is using artificial chromosomes
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这将会通过人工染色体
10:30
and extra chromosomes, so we go from 46
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或者额外染色体来实现。所以染色体的数目会从46条
10:33
to 47 or 48.
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变成47条或48条。
10:35
And one that is not heritable
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这些染色体将是不遗传的,
10:37
because who would want to pass on to their children
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因为谁会愿意遗传给他们的孩子
10:40
the archaic enhancement modules
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如此古老的增强模块呢?
10:43
that they got 25 years earlier from their parents?
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要知道这是25年前父母传给他们的。
10:46
It's a joke; of course they wouldn't want to do that.
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只是一个玩笑。他们当然不会这样做。
10:49
They'll want the new release.
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他们想要的是新的染色体。
10:51
Those kinds of loose analogies with
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这可以大略类比于
10:54
(Laughter)
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(笑)
10:55
computers, and with programming,
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电脑或者编程,
10:57
are actually much deeper than that.
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但实际上比这些都要深刻得多。
11:00
They are really going to come to operate in this realm.
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人们真的会在这个领域展开行动。
11:03
Now not everything that can be done should be done.
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现在要说的是,并非所有可以做的事情都是应该做的,
11:06
And it won't be done.
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有些事情不会成为现实。
11:08
But when something is feasible in thousands of
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但是当很多东西在世界上几千个实验室内
11:10
laboratories all over the world,
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都已经可以被实现时,
11:12
which is going to be the case with these technologies,
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这些技术会被怎样应用呢?
11:14
when there are large numbers of people who see them as beneficial,
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尤其是像现在的情况一样,
11:16
which is already the case,
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许多人把这些技术视为有益的尝试,
11:18
and when they're almost impossible to police,
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对他们进行监管又近乎不可能,
11:21
it's not a question of if this is going to happen,
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某些事情的发生与否就不再是一个疑问,
11:23
it's when and where and how it's going to happen.
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问题是它们发生的地点和方式。
11:25
Humanity is going to go down this path.
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人类会沿着这条道路走下去。
11:29
And it's going to do so for two reasons.
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原因有两条:
11:31
The first is that all these technologies
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首先是所有这些技术
11:34
are just a spin-off of mainstream medical research
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都是主流医学研究的衍生物,
11:36
that everybody wants to see happen.
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人人都渴望看到它们出现。
11:38
It is being funded very very --
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对它们的经费支持非常非常
11:41
in a big way.
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极为丰厚。
11:43
The second is, we're human.
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其次,我们是人类。
11:45
That's what we do.
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这样做是我们的本性。
11:47
We try and use our technology to
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我们试图通过我们的技术
11:49
improve our lives in one way or another.
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从方方面面来改进我们的生活。
11:51
To imagine that we're not going to use these technologies
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臆想想我们在可以应用这些技术时
11:54
when they become available,
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却主动放弃,
11:56
is as much a denial of who we are
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是对人性的否认,
11:58
as to imagine
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至于想象到
12:00
that we'll use these technologies and not fret
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我们能在应用这些技术时不担心
12:02
and worry about it a great deal.
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不忧心忡忡
12:05
The lines are going to blur. And they already are
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分界线将变模糊。如今,
12:08
between therapy and enhancement,
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疗养与增强之间的界限,
12:10
between treatment and prevention,
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治疗与预防之间的界限,
12:12
between need and desire.
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需求与渴望之间的界限,都日益模糊不清。
12:15
That's really the central one, I believe.
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我相信这才是事情的关键。
12:18
People can try and ban these things.
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人们可以试图禁止它们。
12:20
They undoubtedly will. They have.
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毫无疑问他们会这样干。有些人已经这样做了。
12:22
But ultimately all this is going to do
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但最终这些行为的结果,
12:24
is just shift development elsewhere.
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只是将发展导向别处。
12:27
It's going to drive these things from view.
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这些事情将躲到视线之外。
12:29
It's going to reserve the technology for the wealthy
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科技将会为富人保留,
12:31
because they are in the best position
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因为他们处于最好的位置
12:33
to circumvent any of these sorts of laws.
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来逃脱任何法律的管辖。
12:36
And it's going to deny us
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对技术的禁止也会使我们失去
12:38
the information that we need to make wise decisions
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获得必要知识的机会,
12:40
about how to use these technologies.
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同时失去正确决策技术利用方式的机会。
12:43
So, sure, we need to debate these things.
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所以,我们对这些事情的讨论无疑是必要的。
12:45
And I think it's wonderful that we do.
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我为我们正在进行的讨论感到高兴。
12:47
But we shouldn't kid ourselves
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然而我们不能掩耳盗铃,
12:50
and think that we're going to reach a consensus about these things.
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认为一致的结论将会出现。
12:53
That is simply not going to happen.
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因为那是不可能的。
12:55
They touch us too deeply.
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这种争论对我们自身的触动太大。
12:57
And they depend too much upon history, upon philosophy,
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并且,高度依赖于历史、哲学
13:00
upon religion, upon culture, upon politics.
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宗教、文化和政治。
13:03
Some people are going to see this
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在有些人看来,
13:06
as an abomination,
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这是令人深恶痛绝的,
13:08
as the worst thing, as just awful.
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是最邪恶的东西,骇人听闻。
13:11
Other people are going to say, "This is great.
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但有的人会说:“这太棒了!
13:14
This is the flowering of human endeavor."
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简直是人类成就中的奇葩。”
13:18
The one thing though that is really dangerous
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关于这些技术,
13:21
about these sorts of technologies,
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唯一真正可怕之处,
13:24
is that it's easy to become seduced by them.
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是它们对我们的诱惑是如此之大。
13:28
And to focus too much on all
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我们会轻易将注意力
13:30
the high-technology possibilities that exist.
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集中在所有可能的高科技发展上。
13:33
And to lose touch
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并因此失去
13:36
with the basic rhythms of our biology and our health.
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对于基本生命和健康基本规律的感受。
13:38
There are too many people that think that high-technology medicine
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太多人认为高科技药物
13:41
is going to keep them, save them,
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会为他们带来福音,会拯救他们
13:43
from overeating,
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于暴饮暴食之中。
13:45
from eating a lot of fast foods,
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以为大量食用速食不再有害健康,
13:47
from not getting any exercise.
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或者完全不锻炼也没有关系。
13:49
It's not going to happen.
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这是不可能的。
13:51
In the midst of all this amazing technology,
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就在令人眼花缭乱的技术之中,
13:53
and all these things that are occurring, it's really interesting
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在层出不穷的新事物中,有意思的是
13:56
because there is sort of a counter-revolution that is going on:
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一股相反的变革正在进行。
13:59
a resurgence of interest in remedies from the past,
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对古老疗法的兴趣开始复苏。
14:04
in nutraceuticals, in all of these sorts of things
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这些兴趣着眼于营养制品。
14:07
that some people, in the pharmaceutical industry particularly,
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包括许多人,尤其是医药行业的人认为
14:10
like to brand as non-science.
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非科学的事物。
14:12
But this whole effort is generated,
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但是这种现象之所以产生,
14:15
is driven, by IT as well
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也是受信息技术的驱动,
14:18
because that is how we're gathering all this information,
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因为IT是我们获得所有这些信息,
14:21
and linking it, and integrating it together.
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并且联系、整合它们的方式。
14:23
There is a lot in this rich biota that is going to serve us well.
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这个丰富的资源宝藏将会很好的为我们服务。
14:28
And that's where about half of our drugs come.
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而这是大约半数药品的来源。
14:30
So we shouldn't dismiss this
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所以我们不应该对此嗤之以鼻,
14:32
because it's an enormous opportunity to use
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因为此时正是
14:34
these sorts of results,
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利用这些资源的巨大机会。
14:37
or these random loose trials from the last thousand years
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通过这些过去数千年间进行的无计划试验,
14:40
about what has impacts on our health.
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我们可以了解它们对于人类健康的影响。
14:42
And to use our advanced technologies
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进而利用现代科技
14:44
to pull out what is beneficial from this
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来从大量嘈杂信息中
14:46
sea of noise, basically.
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剥离出对我们有益的成分。
14:49
In fact this isn't just abstract.
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这实际上并不是空想。
14:52
I just formed a biotechnology company
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我刚刚成立了一个生物科技公司,
14:54
that is using
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这个公司的业务方式
14:56
this sort of an approach to develop
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就是利用这种途径
14:58
therapeutics for Alzheimer's and other diseases of aging,
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来开发针对阿尔兹海默症或其它衰老相关的疾病。
15:01
and we're making some real progress.
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我们已经取得了一些实际进展。
15:03
So here we are.
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现在我们已经进入了新的时代。
15:05
It's the beginning of a new millennium.
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一个新千年的开始。
15:08
If you look forward,
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向前看,
15:10
I mean future humans,
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你会看到未来的人类,
15:12
far before the end of this millennium,
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在这个千年远未结束之时,
15:15
in a few hundred years, they are going to look back at this moment.
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在仅仅几百年之后,他们将回首现在。
15:17
And from the beginning of today's sessions
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从今天的一系列演讲之中,
15:20
you'd think that they're going to see this as this horrible
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你可以猜想到,他们会把现在视为一段艰辛
15:23
difficult, painful period
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困难和痛苦的时代,
15:25
that we struggled through.
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我们正在其中努力挣扎。
15:27
And I don't think that's what's going to happen.
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但是我不这样想。
15:30
They're going to do like everybody does. They are going to forget about all that stuff.
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我认为他们会像所有人一样,将会忘记这些争论。
15:34
And they are actually going to romanticize this moment in time.
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实际上,这段日子会成为未来的传说。
15:37
They are going to think about it
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将来,他们会认为
15:39
as this glorious instant
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这是一段光辉的瞬间,
15:41
when we laid down
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在这瞬间里,
15:43
the very foundations of their lives,
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我们为他们的生活打下了基础,
15:46
of their society, of their future.
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为他们的社会和未来打下了基础。
15:48
You know it's a little bit like a birth.
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有点像出生,你看。
15:52
Where there is this bloody, awful mess happens.
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虽然血腥,虽然混乱。
15:55
And then what comes out of it? New life.
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但是我们得到了什么?新生命。
15:59
Actually as was pointed out earlier,
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就像先前指出的那样,
16:02
we forget about all the struggle there was in getting there.
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我们会忘记从前有过的所有挣扎。
16:05
So to me,
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对我来说,
16:09
it's clear that one of the foundations of that future
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很明显未来生活的基础之一
16:11
is going to be the reworking of our biology.
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将是生物学的再次发展。
16:15
It's going to come gradually at first. It's going to pick up speed.
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开始会比较缓慢,但后来会加速进行。
16:17
We're going to make lots of errors.
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我们将会犯许多错误。
16:19
That's the way these things work.
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这就是事情发展的方式。
16:21
To me it's an incredible privilege
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对我来说,
16:24
to be alive now
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我为能活在现在感到荣幸,
16:26
and to be able to witness this thing.
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因为我将有幸见证这一切。
16:29
It is something that is a unique instant
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这是所有生命中
16:31
in the history of all of life.
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独一无二的瞬间。
16:34
It will always be remembered.
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这瞬间将被永远铭记。
16:36
And what's extraordinary is that
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更了不起的是,
16:38
we're not just observing this,
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我们不仅仅是在观察这一切,
16:40
we are the architects of this.
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我们正在缔造这一切。
16:42
I think that we should be proud of it.
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我认为我们该为此而自豪。
16:44
What is so difficult and challenging
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之所以有困难和挑战,是因为
16:47
is that we are also the objects of these changes.
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我们同时也是这些变化的影响目标。
16:50
It's our health, it's our lives, it's our future, it's our children.
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影响我们的健康,我们的生命,我们的未来,我们的孩子。
16:53
And that is why they are so very troubling to so many people
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这就是为什么对于太多人来说这种改变如此令人苦恼,
16:57
who would pull back in fear.
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他们甘愿在恐惧中阻止改变的发生。
17:00
I think that our choice
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我认为,我们的选择,
17:03
in the choice of life,
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对于生命的选择,
17:05
is not whether we're going to go down this path.
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不是是否要在这条路上走下去。
17:08
We are, definitely.
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因为我们必定会前行。
17:10
It's how we hold it in our hearts.
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而是我们怎样接受,
17:13
It's how we look at it.
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怎样评价。
17:15
I think Thucydides really spoke to us very clearly
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公元前430年,
17:18
in 430 B.C. He put it nicely.
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Thucidites 就已经清楚的告诉我们这个道理。
17:22
Again, I'll use the words in the same order he did.
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我将再一次原样引用如下:
17:25
"The bravest are surely those
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“最勇敢的人,
17:29
who have the clearest vision of what is before them,
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是看得最清楚的人,
17:32
both glory and danger alike.
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他将荣誉和危险等量齐观。
17:35
And yet notwithstanding, they go out and they meet it."
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他不会退缩,他会前进,他会拥抱未来。”
17:39
Thank you.
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谢谢!
17:41
(Applause)
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(掌声)
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