Gregory Stock: To upgrade is human

44,017 views ・ 2009-04-14

TED


請雙擊下方英文字幕播放視頻。

譯者: Shuang Carol Jin 審譯者: chufung dou
00:12
The future of life, where the unraveling of our biology --
0
12160
4000
生命的未來,以及生物的奧秘一次次揭開──
00:16
and bring up the lights a little bit. I don't have any slides.
1
16160
2000
把燈開亮一點,我不用投影片
00:18
I'm just going to talk --
2
18160
3000
只是要和大家談談─
00:21
about where that's likely to carry us.
3
21160
2000
這些將把我們帶向何方。
00:23
And you know, I saw all the visions
4
23160
4000
我聽了最開始兩部分的演講
00:27
of the first couple of sessions.
5
27160
2000
聽了裡面的那些觀點。
00:29
It almost made me feel a little bit guilty about having an uplifting talk
6
29160
3000
讓我有一點罪惡感,因為我今天的這場演講
00:32
about the future.
7
32160
2000
對未來持以樂觀的態度。
00:34
It felt wrong to do that in some way.
8
34160
2000
這樣做感覺不太對。
00:36
And yet, I don't really think it is
9
36160
2000
但是我確實認為未來充滿希望,
00:38
because when it comes down to it,
10
38160
2000
因為煙消雲散的那天
00:40
it's this larger trajectory that is really what is going to remain --
11
40160
4000
只有大方向被記得
00:44
what people in the future are going to remember about this period.
12
44160
4000
這才是未來會記住這個時代的地方
00:48
I want to talk to you a little bit about
13
48160
3000
我想要說的是,
00:51
why the visions of Jeremy Rivkins,
14
51160
4000
為什麼Jeremy Rivkins提出的
00:55
who would like to ban these sorts of technologies,
15
55160
3000
禁止這些技術的要求
00:58
or of the Bill Joys who would like to relinquish them,
16
58160
4000
或是Bill Joys放棄這些技術的想法,
01:02
are actually -- to follow those paths would be such a tragedy for us.
17
62160
5000
對我們來說才是一場悲劇。
01:07
I'm focusing on biology,
18
67160
3000
我會把重點放在生物學
01:10
the biological sciences.
19
70160
2000
和生物科學上面。
01:12
The reason I'm doing that is because those are going to be
20
72160
3000
因為這兩個領域
01:15
the areas that are the most significant to us.
21
75160
4000
對我們來說將最為關鍵。
01:19
The reason for that is really very simple.
22
79160
2000
其中原因非常簡單,
01:21
It's because we're flesh and blood.
23
81160
2000
因為我們都是血肉之軀
01:23
We're biological creatures.
24
83160
2000
我們都是生物。
01:25
And what we can do with our biology
25
85160
4000
我們在生物學上的造化
01:29
is going to shape our future
26
89160
2000
將決定我們自己
01:31
and that of our children and that of their children --
27
91160
3000
以及子孫後代的未來──
01:34
whether we gain control over aging,
28
94160
2000
比如能否控制衰老,
01:36
whether we learn to protect ourselves from Alzheimer's,
29
96160
4000
能否防治老人癡呆症
01:40
and heart disease, and cancer.
30
100160
2000
心臟病,以及癌症。
01:42
I think that Shakespeare really put it very nicely.
31
102160
4000
我覺得莎翁有段話說得不錯。
01:46
And I'm actually going to use his words in the same order that he did.
32
106160
3000
照搬一下他老人家的一字一句。
01:49
(Laughter)
33
109160
2000
(笑聲)
01:51
He said, "And so from hour to hour
34
111160
3000
他說,“因此時間一點點流逝,
01:54
we ripe and ripe.
35
114160
3000
我們一點點成熟。
01:57
And then from hour to hour we rot and rot.
36
117160
2000
時間繼續一點點流逝,我們一點點老去。
01:59
And thereby hangs a tale."
37
119160
2000
故事這樣發生了。”
02:01
Life is short, you know.
38
121160
2000
人生苦短。
02:03
And we need to think about planning a little bit.
39
123160
2000
所以我們要好好規劃。
02:05
We're all going to eventually, even in the developed world,
40
125160
5000
即便科學非常發達,最終我們仍將
02:10
going to have to lose everything that we love.
41
130160
3000
失去摯愛的一切。
02:13
When you're beginning to rot a little bit,
42
133160
3000
當我們開始老去的時候,
02:16
all of the videos crammed into your head,
43
136160
2000
所有湧入你腦海的一幕幕,
02:18
all of the extensions that extend your various powers,
44
138160
4000
所有外在的能力、權力等等,
02:22
are going to being to seem a little secondary.
45
142160
4000
都變得次要起來。
02:26
And you know, I'm getting a little bit gray -- so is Ray Kurzweil,
46
146160
4000
你們可以看到,我變得有點悲觀了,Ray Kurzweil也是,
02:30
so is Eric Drexler.
47
150160
2000
還有Eric Drexler。
02:32
This is where it's really central to our lives.
48
152160
3000
這才是我們生命的核心。
02:35
Now I know there's been a whole lot of hype
49
155160
2000
現在我瞭解到,我們對生物學的控制能力
02:37
about our power to control biology.
50
157160
3000
並不像傳言所說的那樣強大。
02:40
You just have to look at the Human Genome Project.
51
160160
2000
只要看下人類基因工程你就知道了。
02:42
It wasn't two years ago
52
162160
2000
只不過兩年前,
02:44
that everybody was talking about --
53
164160
2000
人們就在說
02:46
we've found the Holy Grail of biology.
54
166160
2000
我們已經掌握了生物學的關鍵,
02:48
We're deciphering the code of codes.
55
168160
2000
我們已經破譯了基因密碼,
02:50
We're reading the book of life.
56
170160
3000
我們正在閱讀生命之書。
02:53
It's a little bit reminiscent of 1969 when Neil Armstrong walked on the moon,
57
173160
4000
這有點像1969年阿姆斯壯登錄月球時的情境,
02:57
and everybody was about to race out toward the stars.
58
177160
4000
每個人都以為我們要奔向外星球了。
03:01
And we've all seen "2001: A Space Odyssey."
59
181160
3000
我們都看過電影《2001太空漫游》
03:04
You know it's 2003, and there is no HAL.
60
184160
4000
可是現在都2003了,電影裡的超智能電腦仍然不見蹤影。
03:08
And there is no odyssey to our own moon, much less the moons of Jupiter.
61
188160
4000
我們還不能在月球上漫步,更別說木星的衛星了。
03:12
And we're still picking up pieces of the Challenger.
62
192160
3000
我們仍然在尋找挑戰者號的殘骸。
03:15
So it's not surprising that some people would wonder
63
195160
4000
所以不奇怪,有的人會懷疑
03:19
whether maybe 30 or 40 years from now,
64
199160
3000
是不是等到三四十年以後,
03:22
we'll look back at this instant in time,
65
202160
2000
我們回顧當年的時候
03:24
and all of the sort of talk about
66
204160
3000
如今這些各種各樣的演講,
03:27
the Human Genome Project,
67
207160
2000
有的關於人類基因工程,
03:29
and what all this is going to mean to us --
68
209160
2000
有的關於人類基因工程對我們的意義,
03:31
well, it will really mean precious little.
69
211160
4000
都會顯得微不足道。
03:35
And I just want to say that that is absolutely not going to be the case.
70
215160
4000
我想說的是這絕對不可能。
03:39
Because when we talk about our genetics and our biology,
71
219160
5000
因為當我們談及遺傳學與生物學,
03:44
and modifying and altering and adjusting these things,
72
224160
2000
以及在其中進行修飾、改變、調整的時候,
03:46
we're talking about changing ourselves.
73
226160
3000
我們談的其實是改變自己。
03:49
And this is very critical stuff.
74
229160
2000
這是非常重要的一點。
03:51
If you have any doubts about how technology affects our lives,
75
231160
4000
如果你還不能確定科技如何影響我們的生活,
03:55
you just have to go to any major city.
76
235160
2000
你只要隨便去哪座大城市看一看。
03:57
This is not the stomping ground
77
237160
2000
這已完全不同於我們數萬年前的祖先
03:59
of our Pleistocene ancestors.
78
239160
2000
生活的那片土地了。
04:01
What's happening is we're taking this technology --
79
241160
3000
如今,人類利用科技,
04:04
it's becoming more precise, more potent --
80
244160
2000
科技比原先更加精確,也更有威力,
04:06
and we're turning it back upon ourselves.
81
246160
3000
我們要把它用在自己身上。
04:09
Before it's all done
82
249160
2000
下一步,
04:11
we are going to alter ourselves
83
251160
2000
我們要一點一點地改變自己,
04:13
every bit as much as we have changed the world around us.
84
253160
3000
就像改變周遭世界一樣。
04:16
It's going to happen a lot sooner
85
256160
2000
這很快就會發生,
04:18
than people imagine.
86
258160
2000
遠比人們想象的要快。
04:20
On the way there it's going to
87
260160
3000
改變人類自己的過程中,
04:23
completely revolutionize medicine and health care; that's obvious.
88
263160
3000
醫療保健會徹底改革。這是顯而易見的。
04:26
It's going to change the way we have children.
89
266160
2000
生育子女的方式會改變。
04:28
It's going to change the way we manage
90
268160
2000
我們控制和改變自己情緒
04:30
and alter our emotions.
91
270160
2000
的方式也會改變。
04:32
It's going to probably change the human lifespan.
92
272160
2000
還有人類壽命,也許也會改變。
04:34
It will really make us question
93
274160
2000
這讓我們不禁要問
04:36
what it is to be a human being.
94
276160
4000
人類到底是什麼。
04:40
The larger context of this is that are
95
280160
2000
大環境就是
04:42
two unprecedented revolutions that are going on today.
96
282160
6000
兩場前所未有的革命正在進行。
04:48
The first of them is the obvious one,
97
288160
2000
第一場革命顯而易見,
04:50
the silicon revolution,
98
290160
2000
是矽土半導體的電子革命
04:52
which you all are very, very familiar with.
99
292160
3000
大家都非常之熟悉。
04:55
It's changing our lives in so many ways,
100
295160
2000
它從很多方面改變著我們的生活,
04:57
and it will continue to do that.
101
297160
2000
而且還會繼續改變我們。
04:59
What the essence of that is, is that we're taking
102
299160
2000
說到底就是,我們利用
05:01
the sand at our feet, the inert silicon at our feet,
103
301160
4000
腳邊的砂石和不活躍的矽元素,
05:05
and we're breathing a level of complexity into it
104
305160
2000
然後賦予它們一定的復雜性,
05:07
that rivals that of life itself,
105
307160
2000
這和生命本身的復雜性相當,
05:09
and may even surpass it.
106
309160
3000
甚至更加復雜。
05:12
As an outgrowth of that, as a child of that revolution,
107
312160
3000
這場革命的衍生物,如同它的下一代,
05:15
is the revolution in biology.
108
315160
2000
就是生物學革命。
05:17
The genomics revolution,
109
317160
2000
基因革命、
05:19
proteomics, metabolomics, all of these "omics"
110
319160
3000
蛋白質體、代謝體,所有這些生物科學名詞
05:22
that sound so terrific on grants and on business plans.
111
322160
3000
在撥款補助和商業計劃中都顯得非常漂亮。
05:25
What we're doing is we are
112
325160
5000
我們現在
05:30
seizing control of our evolutionary future.
113
330160
3000
想要控制住革命性的未來。
05:33
I mean we're essentially using technology
114
333160
2000
我的意思是,實際上我們是用科技
05:35
to just jam evolution into fast-forward.
115
335160
3000
向前推動革命。
05:38
It's not at all clear where it's going to take us.
116
338160
3000
我們到底會走向何方,仍然是個未知數。
05:41
But in five to ten years we're going to start see
117
341160
3000
但是五到十年之內,我們會逐漸看到
05:44
some very profound changes.
118
344160
2000
一些深遠的改變。
05:46
The most immediate changes that we'll see
119
346160
2000
其中最先改變的
05:48
are things like in medicine.
120
348160
2000
是諸如醫療等方面。
05:50
There is going to be a big shift towards preventative medicine
121
350160
3000
我們的重心會轉向預防,
05:53
as we start to be able to identify
122
353160
2000
因為我們開始認識到
05:55
all of the risk factors that we have as individuals.
123
355160
3000
個體發病的潛在原因。
05:58
But who is going to pay for all this?
124
358160
2000
但是誰來為這一切買單呢?
06:00
And how are we going to understand all this complex information?
125
360160
4000
我們怎樣才能理解這些復雜的信息呢?
06:04
That is going to be the IT challenge
126
364160
3000
這將是下一代的IT挑戰,
06:07
of the next generation, is communicating all this information.
127
367160
4000
也就是傳播信息。
06:11
There's pharmacogenomics, the combination of pharmacology
128
371160
2000
藥物學和遺傳學的結合──
06:13
and genetics:
129
373160
3000
藥物遺傳學
06:16
tailoring drugs to our individual constitutions
130
376160
2000
根據人的個體特徵製造藥物,
06:18
that Juan talked about a little bit earlier.
131
378160
3000
剛剛胡安提到了這點。
06:21
That's going to have amazing impacts.
132
381160
3000
藥物遺傳學會產生奇妙的改變。
06:24
And it's going to be used for diet as well,
133
384160
3000
還會被用於飲食,
06:27
and nutritional supplements and such.
134
387160
2000
營養補充劑等等。
06:29
But it's going to have a big impact because
135
389160
2000
但還有一個很大的影響,
06:31
we're going to have niche drugs.
136
391160
2000
因為以後不同的人用不同的藥,
06:33
And we aren't going to be able to support
137
393160
3000
與現在大規模制藥不可同日而語,
06:36
the kinds of expenses that we have to create blockbuster drugs today.
138
396160
3000
成本過高,我們難以支付。
06:39
The approval process is going to fall apart, actually.
139
399160
5000
藥品批審過程將會改變
06:44
It's too slow.
140
404160
2000
現在太慢了。
06:46
It's too risk-averse.
141
406160
2000
太保守了,
06:48
And it is really not suited for the future
142
408160
3000
與我們即將進入的未來
06:51
that we're moving into.
143
411160
2000
實在不相符。
06:53
Another thing is that we're just going to have to deal with this knowledge.
144
413160
2000
另一點就是我們還要處理這麼一個問題。
06:55
It's really wonderful when we hear,
145
415160
2000
有的東西聽起來是很棒的,比如
06:57
"Oh, 99.9 percent of the letters in the code are the same.
146
417160
5000
“我們的基因有99.9%都是一樣的。
07:02
We're all identical to each other. Isn't it wonderful?"
147
422160
4000
所有人都一樣。”聽起來不錯吧?
07:06
And look around you and know
148
426160
2000
可看看周圍你就會明白,
07:08
that what we really care about is
149
428160
2000
我們真正在意的
07:10
that little bit of difference.
150
430160
2000
其實是那微乎其微的不同之處。
07:12
We look the same to a visitor from another planet, maybe,
151
432160
3000
對外星人來說,我們看起來可能一模一樣,
07:15
but not to each other
152
435160
2000
但在這裡,人與人是不同的,
07:17
because we compete with each other all time.
153
437160
2000
因為我們無時無刻不在互相競爭,
07:19
And we're going to have to come to grips with the fact
154
439160
3000
我們還會了解到
07:22
that there are differences between us as individuals that we will know about,
155
442160
3000
個體之間存在差異,
07:25
and between subpopulations of humans as well.
156
445160
4000
亞群之間亦存在差異。
07:29
To deny that that's the case is not a very good start on that.
157
449160
4000
否認差異並不是個良好的開端。
07:33
A generation or so away
158
453160
3000
大概到我們的下一代,
07:36
there are going to be even more profound things that are going to happen.
159
456160
3000
還會發生影響更加深刻的事。
07:39
That's when we're going to begin to use this knowledge to modify ourselves.
160
459160
4000
到時我們將會開始依照已有的知識來修飾人類的基因。
07:43
Now I don't mean extra gills or something --
161
463160
3000
不是說會多長幾個器官之類的,
07:46
something we care about, like aging.
162
466160
2000
而是要用在我們關心的問題上,比如衰老。
07:48
What if we could unravel aging and understand it --
163
468160
4000
倘若我們可以揭開衰老的奧秘──
07:52
begin to retard the process or even reverse it?
164
472160
3000
延緩衰老甚至倒轉衰老的過程,會發生什麼呢?
07:55
It would change absolutely everything.
165
475160
2000
所有的一切都會改變,
07:57
And it's obvious to anyone,
166
477160
2000
對任何一個人而言,
07:59
that if we can do this, we absolutely will do this,
167
479160
3000
只要能做到,我們一定會這麼做,
08:02
whatever the consequences are.
168
482160
2000
結果怎樣不重要。
08:04
The second is modifying our emotions.
169
484160
4000
第二是修飾情感。
08:08
I mean Ritalin, Viagra,
170
488160
4000
比如利他靈、威而剛,
08:12
things of that sort, Prozac.
171
492160
2000
這一類的藥物,還有像百憂解。
08:14
You know, this is just clumsy little baby steps.
172
494160
2000
這只是我們一開始笨拙的步伐。
08:16
What if you could take a little
173
496160
3000
假如你
08:19
concoction of pharmaceuticals
174
499160
3000
服用一點藥物,
08:22
that would make you feel really contented,
175
502160
3000
就可以感到滿足,
08:25
just happy to be you.
176
505160
2000
感到幸福,
08:27
Are you going to be able to resist that if it doesn't have any overt side effects?
177
507160
3000
而且這種藥沒有明顯的副作用,你會反對嗎?
08:30
Probably not.
178
510160
2000
大概不會吧。
08:32
And if you don't, who are you going to be?
179
512160
2000
如果答案是否定的,你將會發生怎樣的改變呢?
08:34
Why do you do what you do?
180
514160
2000
你為什麼這樣做呢?
08:36
We're sort of circumventing evolutionary programs that guide our behavior.
181
516160
3000
我們似乎在逃避一些事情,逃避具有改革和指導意義的項目。
08:39
It's going to be very challenging to deal with.
182
519160
2000
相當棘手的問題。
08:41
The third area is reproduction.
183
521160
4000
第三個是繁殖領域。
08:45
The idea that we're going to chose our children's genes,
184
525160
3000
隨著我們逐漸認清基因怎樣反映出人的特徵,
08:48
as we begin to understand what genes say about who we are.
185
528160
4000
我們將能選擇孩子的基因。
08:52
That's the focus of my book "Redesigning Humans,"
186
532160
2000
這是我在《重新設計人類》這本書裡關注的重點,
08:54
where I talk about the kinds of choices we'll make,
187
534160
2000
書裡還談到我們會做怎樣的選擇,
08:56
and the challenges it's going to present to society.
188
536160
3000
以及它將給社會帶來什麼樣的挑戰。
08:59
There are three obvious ways of doing this.
189
539160
2000
有三個方法。
09:01
The first is cloning.
190
541160
2000
第一個是克隆。
09:03
It didn't happen.
191
543160
2000
其實克隆還沒成功,
09:05
It's a total media circus.
192
545160
2000
純粹是媒體炒作。
09:07
It will happen in five to 10 years.
193
547160
2000
五到十年內可以成功,
09:09
And when it does it's not going to be that big a deal.
194
549160
3000
但即便成功了也沒什麼了不起。
09:12
The birth of a delayed identical twin
195
552160
2000
兩個不同時間出生的完全相同的雙胞胎,
09:14
is not going to shake western civilization.
196
554160
5000
不會對西方文明產生太大影響。
09:19
But there are more important things that are already occurring:
197
559160
3000
反而一些更重要的事情已經發生了:
09:22
embryo screening.
198
562160
2000
胚胎篩選。
09:24
You take a six to eight cell embryo,
199
564160
3000
取一個含六到八個細胞的胚胎,
09:27
you tease out one of the cells, you run a genetic test on that cell,
200
567160
3000
提取一個細胞進行遺傳測試,
09:30
and depending on the results of that test
201
570160
2000
根據測試結果
09:32
you either implant that embryo or you discard it.
202
572160
3000
決定取捨。
09:35
It's already done to avoid rare diseases today.
203
575160
3000
目前已用於預防罕見疾病。
09:38
And pretty soon it's going to be possible
204
578160
3000
很快,這種方法可能可以
09:41
to avoid virtually all genetic diseases in that way.
205
581160
4000
預防所有的遺傳疾病。
09:45
As that becomes possible
206
585160
3000
如果實現這項技術,
09:48
this is going to move from something that is used by those who
207
588160
3000
受益人群不只是
09:51
have infertility problems and are already doing in vitro fertilization,
208
591160
3000
那些有生育疾病且已進行體外受精的人群,
09:54
to the wealthy who want to protect their children,
209
594160
3000
想保護孩子的富人
09:57
to just about everybody else.
210
597160
2000
以及所有人都能受惠於這種技術。
09:59
And in that process that's going to morph
211
599160
2000
它還會帶來一項改變,
10:01
from being just for diseases,
212
601160
2000
不只預防疾病,
10:03
to being for lesser vulnerabilities,
213
603160
2000
還能增強人的抵抗疾病的能力,
10:05
like risk of manic depression or something,
214
605160
3000
比如降低得狂躁抑鬱症的風險,
10:08
to picking personalities,
215
608160
3000
到挑選性格、
10:11
temperaments, traits, these sorts of things.
216
611160
3000
脾氣、特質這類事情,
10:14
Of course there is going to be genetic engineering.
217
614160
3000
當然,其中還要涉及基因工程。
10:17
Directly going in -- it's a little bit further away, but not that far away --
218
617160
3000
基因工程直接參與其中——這有點遙遠,但也不是那麼遙遠——
10:20
going in and altering the genes in the first cell in an embryo.
219
620160
5000
利用基因工程改變胚胎中第一個細胞內的基因。
10:25
The way I suspect it will happen
220
625160
3000
我覺得這項技術想要成功,
10:28
is using artificial chromosomes
221
628160
2000
要用到人造染色體
10:30
and extra chromosomes, so we go from 46
222
630160
3000
以及額外的染色體,所以我們的染色體數量將從46
10:33
to 47 or 48.
223
633160
2000
上升到47或48。
10:35
And one that is not heritable
224
635160
2000
還會有一條不可遺傳的染色體。
10:37
because who would want to pass on to their children
225
637160
3000
畢竟,誰想把25年前
10:40
the archaic enhancement modules
226
640160
3000
從父母那裡遺傳來的已經用不上的基因改善模塊
10:43
that they got 25 years earlier from their parents?
227
643160
3000
傳給自己的小孩?
10:46
It's a joke; of course they wouldn't want to do that.
228
646160
3000
開個玩笑,人們肯定不想這樣。
10:49
They'll want the new release.
229
649160
2000
他們想要的是新的模塊,
10:51
Those kinds of loose analogies with
230
651160
3000
這有點類似於
10:54
(Laughter)
231
654160
1000
(笑聲)
10:55
computers, and with programming,
232
655160
2000
電腦與編寫程式
10:57
are actually much deeper than that.
233
657160
3000
而比那還深刻些
11:00
They are really going to come to operate in this realm.
234
660160
3000
在這個領域,人們會有所行動。
11:03
Now not everything that can be done should be done.
235
663160
3000
如今,並不是所有能做的事就都應該做
11:06
And it won't be done.
236
666160
2000
有些是不會被實施的
11:08
But when something is feasible in thousands of
237
668160
2000
但是,當某項技術在全世界成千上萬的
11:10
laboratories all over the world,
238
670160
2000
實驗室中都可以實現的時候,
11:12
which is going to be the case with these technologies,
239
672160
2000
之前提到的那些技術以後會普及開來,
11:14
when there are large numbers of people who see them as beneficial,
240
674160
2000
當很多人發現某項技術大有裨益的時候,
11:16
which is already the case,
241
676160
2000
我們已經看到了這些技術的優點,
11:18
and when they're almost impossible to police,
242
678160
3000
還有,當某些技術幾乎無法管制的時候,
11:21
it's not a question of if this is going to happen,
243
681160
2000
這種技術到底會不會被應用已不是問題,
11:23
it's when and where and how it's going to happen.
244
683160
2000
真正緊要的是,它何時、何地以及怎樣開始被應用。
11:25
Humanity is going to go down this path.
245
685160
4000
人類將沿此前行,
11:29
And it's going to do so for two reasons.
246
689160
2000
原因有二。
11:31
The first is that all these technologies
247
691160
3000
其一,所有這些技術,
11:34
are just a spin-off of mainstream medical research
248
694160
2000
只是主流醫療研究的衍生物,
11:36
that everybody wants to see happen.
249
696160
2000
每個人都對它們充滿期待。
11:38
It is being funded very very --
250
698160
3000
資金來源
11:41
in a big way.
251
701160
2000
亦非常充沛。
11:43
The second is, we're human.
252
703160
2000
其二,我們都是人。
11:45
That's what we do.
253
705160
2000
這出於人的本性。
11:47
We try and use our technology to
254
707160
2000
我們努力用技術
11:49
improve our lives in one way or another.
255
709160
2000
來改善自己。
11:51
To imagine that we're not going to use these technologies
256
711160
3000
想像一下,等到這些技術成熟的時候,
11:54
when they become available,
257
714160
2000
我們卻不用,
11:56
is as much a denial of who we are
258
716160
2000
這簡直就是對我們本性的否定,
11:58
as to imagine
259
718160
2000
按照常理,
12:00
that we'll use these technologies and not fret
260
720160
2000
我們不僅要使用這些技術,
12:02
and worry about it a great deal.
261
722160
3000
而且用不著怎麼擔心它。
12:05
The lines are going to blur. And they already are
262
725160
3000
很多事物之間的界限會變得更加模糊,
12:08
between therapy and enhancement,
263
728160
2000
比如治療和提升之間,
12:10
between treatment and prevention,
264
730160
2000
治病和預防之間,
12:12
between need and desire.
265
732160
3000
需求和渴望之間。
12:15
That's really the central one, I believe.
266
735160
3000
我相信這才是核心問題。
12:18
People can try and ban these things.
267
738160
2000
人們可以試圖去阻止。
12:20
They undoubtedly will. They have.
268
740160
2000
毫無疑問他們會去阻止,其實已經在阻止。
12:22
But ultimately all this is going to do
269
742160
2000
但最終造成的後果只能是
12:24
is just shift development elsewhere.
270
744160
3000
讓發展導向別的地方,
12:27
It's going to drive these things from view.
271
747160
2000
將這些趕出人們目所能及之處,
12:29
It's going to reserve the technology for the wealthy
272
749160
2000
把技術留給富人,
12:31
because they are in the best position
273
751160
2000
因為富人佔據著有利地位,
12:33
to circumvent any of these sorts of laws.
274
753160
3000
可以操縱法律。
12:36
And it's going to deny us
275
756160
2000
阻止這些技術還會使我們
12:38
the information that we need to make wise decisions
276
758160
2000
無法得到需要的信息,作出明智的選擇,
12:40
about how to use these technologies.
277
760160
3000
合理使用這些技術。
12:43
So, sure, we need to debate these things.
278
763160
2000
所以,我們需要就這些進行辯論,
12:45
And I think it's wonderful that we do.
279
765160
2000
我們正在辯論,這點我非常欣賞。
12:47
But we shouldn't kid ourselves
280
767160
3000
但我們不應該欺騙自己,
12:50
and think that we're going to reach a consensus about these things.
281
770160
3000
以為我們會達成共識,
12:53
That is simply not going to happen.
282
773160
2000
因為這根本不會發生。
12:55
They touch us too deeply.
283
775160
2000
這些辯論與我們聯繫得太緊密,
12:57
And they depend too much upon history, upon philosophy,
284
777160
3000
與歷史、哲學、宗教、文化、政治
13:00
upon religion, upon culture, upon politics.
285
780160
3000
都聯繫得太過緊密。
13:03
Some people are going to see this
286
783160
3000
有人這樣看問題,
13:06
as an abomination,
287
786160
2000
認為墮胎
13:08
as the worst thing, as just awful.
288
788160
3000
是極其錯誤的,罪大惡極。
13:11
Other people are going to say, "This is great.
289
791160
3000
另一些人則說:“這是很好的啊。
13:14
This is the flowering of human endeavor."
290
794160
4000
簡直就是人類取得的成就中的奇葩。”
13:18
The one thing though that is really dangerous
291
798160
3000
這類技術暗含著
13:21
about these sorts of technologies,
292
801160
3000
一項極大的危險,
13:24
is that it's easy to become seduced by them.
293
804160
4000
就是我們會輕易被它吸引,
13:28
And to focus too much on all
294
808160
2000
將目光集中在
13:30
the high-technology possibilities that exist.
295
810160
3000
所有可能的高科技發展。
13:33
And to lose touch
296
813160
3000
相反卻不去管
13:36
with the basic rhythms of our biology and our health.
297
816160
2000
那些與我們的生物學和健康最息息相關的部分。
13:38
There are too many people that think that high-technology medicine
298
818160
3000
很多人以為,高科技醫療
13:41
is going to keep them, save them,
299
821160
2000
可以拯救他們,
13:43
from overeating,
300
823160
2000
以為暴飲暴食、
13:45
from eating a lot of fast foods,
301
825160
2000
吃快餐食品、
13:47
from not getting any exercise.
302
827160
2000
什麼運動都不做,也可以健康。
13:49
It's not going to happen.
303
829160
2000
但這是不可能的。
13:51
In the midst of all this amazing technology,
304
831160
2000
在所有令人稱奇的技術中,
13:53
and all these things that are occurring, it's really interesting
305
833160
3000
所有正在發生的事情中,
13:56
because there is sort of a counter-revolution that is going on:
306
836160
3000
有一股相反的改革力量,
13:59
a resurgence of interest in remedies from the past,
307
839160
5000
比如古老的醫學重獲青睞,
14:04
in nutraceuticals, in all of these sorts of things
308
844160
3000
主要集中在營養醫學這一類,
14:07
that some people, in the pharmaceutical industry particularly,
309
847160
3000
但有的人,特別是製藥業界的人
14:10
like to brand as non-science.
310
850160
2000
認為它是偽科學。
14:12
But this whole effort is generated,
311
852160
3000
但這種傾向的產生和發展
14:15
is driven, by IT as well
312
855160
3000
受到信息技術的影響,
14:18
because that is how we're gathering all this information,
313
858160
3000
因為我們通過信息技術收集信息、
14:21
and linking it, and integrating it together.
314
861160
2000
把信息聯繫在一起並加以整合。
14:23
There is a lot in this rich biota that is going to serve us well.
315
863160
5000
其實它的其中資源豐富,可以很好地為我們服務,
14:28
And that's where about half of our drugs come.
316
868160
2000
也是我們約一半藥物的來源,
14:30
So we shouldn't dismiss this
317
870160
2000
所以我們不應該加以拒絕,
14:32
because it's an enormous opportunity to use
318
872160
2000
因為現在正是絕佳的
14:34
these sorts of results,
319
874160
3000
利用這些資源的機會,
14:37
or these random loose trials from the last thousand years
320
877160
3000
或者說是千年來無數次不成功的嘗試,
14:40
about what has impacts on our health.
321
880160
2000
尋找影響健康的因素。
14:42
And to use our advanced technologies
322
882160
2000
運用先進的科技
14:44
to pull out what is beneficial from this
323
884160
2000
從各種不相關的東西中
14:46
sea of noise, basically.
324
886160
3000
找出對健康有益的因素。
14:49
In fact this isn't just abstract.
325
889160
3000
事實上這不僅僅只是抽象概念,
14:52
I just formed a biotechnology company
326
892160
2000
我剛剛成立了一家生物科技公司,
14:54
that is using
327
894160
2000
用類似的方法
14:56
this sort of an approach to develop
328
896160
2000
開發阿爾茨海默症的治療方案,
14:58
therapeutics for Alzheimer's and other diseases of aging,
329
898160
3000
以及其他老年疾病的解決方案。
15:01
and we're making some real progress.
330
901160
2000
我們已取得一些實質性的進展,
15:03
So here we are.
331
903160
2000
所以今天就像你們看到的這樣。
15:05
It's the beginning of a new millennium.
332
905160
3000
我們剛剛走進了一個新千年,
15:08
If you look forward,
333
908160
2000
展望未來,
15:10
I mean future humans,
334
910160
2000
我是說人類的未來,
15:12
far before the end of this millennium,
335
912160
3000
在這個千年走到中間的時候,
15:15
in a few hundred years, they are going to look back at this moment.
336
915160
2000
也就是幾百年之後,人們會回頭看此時此刻。
15:17
And from the beginning of today's sessions
337
917160
3000
從今天演講的一開始,
15:20
you'd think that they're going to see this as this horrible
338
920160
3000
你們可能意味,未來的人們眼中,現在是一個可怕的、
15:23
difficult, painful period
339
923160
2000
艱難的、痛苦的時期,
15:25
that we struggled through.
340
925160
2000
我們掙扎度過。
15:27
And I don't think that's what's going to happen.
341
927160
3000
我的觀點恰恰相反,
15:30
They're going to do like everybody does. They are going to forget about all that stuff.
342
930160
4000
他們和別人一樣,什麼都不會記得,
15:34
And they are actually going to romanticize this moment in time.
343
934160
3000
實際上,他們會把這一刻描繪得更加浪漫,
15:37
They are going to think about it
344
937160
2000
他們會把這一刻
15:39
as this glorious instant
345
939160
2000
想像成榮耀的一刻,
15:41
when we laid down
346
941160
2000
因為我們建立了基礎,
15:43
the very foundations of their lives,
347
943160
3000
在這個之上,才有了他們享有的
15:46
of their society, of their future.
348
946160
2000
生活、社會、未來。
15:48
You know it's a little bit like a birth.
349
948160
4000
這就有點像嬰兒出生,
15:52
Where there is this bloody, awful mess happens.
350
952160
3000
剛生出來的時候到處都是血跡,很噁心、很混亂,
15:55
And then what comes out of it? New life.
351
955160
4000
但隨之而來的是什麼?新的生命。
15:59
Actually as was pointed out earlier,
352
959160
3000
事實上正如之前所說,
16:02
we forget about all the struggle there was in getting there.
353
962160
3000
我們已經忘記了走到今天這一步所經歷的種種磨難。
16:05
So to me,
354
965160
4000
所以對我而言,
16:09
it's clear that one of the foundations of that future
355
969160
2000
這樣的未來需要一個基礎,
16:11
is going to be the reworking of our biology.
356
971160
4000
將是對我們生物學的改造發展,
16:15
It's going to come gradually at first. It's going to pick up speed.
357
975160
2000
一開始循序漸進,之後慢慢地加快速度。
16:17
We're going to make lots of errors.
358
977160
2000
我們會犯很多錯誤,
16:19
That's the way these things work.
359
979160
2000
但這就是成功的必經之路。
16:21
To me it's an incredible privilege
360
981160
3000
就我自己而言,活在世界上
16:24
to be alive now
361
984160
2000
親眼見證這一切,
16:26
and to be able to witness this thing.
362
986160
3000
就已經很不容易。
16:29
It is something that is a unique instant
363
989160
2000
這是所有生命的歷史上
16:31
in the history of all of life.
364
991160
3000
獨特的一刻。
16:34
It will always be remembered.
365
994160
2000
它會被永遠地記住。
16:36
And what's extraordinary is that
366
996160
2000
而且最不同尋常之初就是,
16:38
we're not just observing this,
367
998160
2000
我們不僅是在觀察它,
16:40
we are the architects of this.
368
1000160
2000
我們也參與建構它
16:42
I think that we should be proud of it.
369
1002160
2000
我覺得我們應當感到自豪。
16:44
What is so difficult and challenging
370
1004160
3000
真正困難之處,真正的挑戰
16:47
is that we are also the objects of these changes.
371
1007160
3000
在於我們自己是改變的對象,
16:50
It's our health, it's our lives, it's our future, it's our children.
372
1010160
3000
我們的健康、生活、未來、子孫,都要被改變。
16:53
And that is why they are so very troubling to so many people
373
1013160
4000
這也解釋了為什麼這麼多人感到困擾,
16:57
who would pull back in fear.
374
1017160
3000
在恐懼中後退。
17:00
I think that our choice
375
1020160
3000
我認為,
17:03
in the choice of life,
376
1023160
2000
關於選擇生命這個問題,
17:05
is not whether we're going to go down this path.
377
1025160
3000
並不在於我們是否要沿著這條路走下去。
17:08
We are, definitely.
378
1028160
2000
我們一定要走下去。
17:10
It's how we hold it in our hearts.
379
1030160
3000
關鍵是我們應當怎樣認識這個問題,
17:13
It's how we look at it.
380
1033160
2000
怎樣看待它。
17:15
I think Thucydides really spoke to us very clearly
381
1035160
3000
修昔底德早在公元前430年就說過一句話,道理非常清楚,
17:18
in 430 B.C. He put it nicely.
382
1038160
4000
他的措辭也很恰當。
17:22
Again, I'll use the words in the same order he did.
383
1042160
3000
我在這裡想一字一句地複述他的原話。
17:25
"The bravest are surely those
384
1045160
4000
最勇敢的人
17:29
who have the clearest vision of what is before them,
385
1049160
3000
一定對面前的事物有著最清晰的認識,
17:32
both glory and danger alike.
386
1052160
3000
無論是榮譽還是危險,
17:35
And yet notwithstanding, they go out and they meet it."
387
1055160
4000
但不管怎樣,他們都會走出去迎接它的到來。
17:39
Thank you.
388
1059160
2000
謝謝大家。
17:41
(Applause)
389
1061160
5000
(掌聲)
關於本網站

本網站將向您介紹對學習英語有用的 YouTube 視頻。 您將看到來自世界各地的一流教師教授的英語課程。 雙擊每個視頻頁面上顯示的英文字幕,從那裡播放視頻。 字幕與視頻播放同步滾動。 如果您有任何意見或要求,請使用此聯繫表與我們聯繫。

https://forms.gle/WvT1wiN1qDtmnspy7