The power to think ahead in a reckless age | Bina Venkataraman

翻译人员: 丹 李 校对人员: psjmz mz

So in the winter of 2012,

在2012年的冬天，

I went to visit my grandmother's house

我拜访了祖母，

in South India,

她住在印度南部，

a place, by the way,

顺便说一句，在这里，

where the mosquitos have a special taste for the blood of the American-born.

美国出生的人很招蚊子的喜欢。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

No joke.

不开玩笑。

When I was there, I got an unexpected gift.

我在那儿的时候， 收到了一份出乎意料的礼物。

It was this antique instrument

就是这个古董乐器，

made more than a century ago,

是一百多年前制造的，

hand-carved from a rare wood,

从罕见的木头中 手工雕刻出来的，

inlaid with pearls

上面镶嵌着珍珠，

and with dozens of metal strings.

还有几十根金属弦。

It's a family heirloom,

这是一件家传宝物，

a link between my past,

它连接着我的过去，

the country where my parents were born,

和我父母所出生的国家，

and the future,

以及未来，

那些我将带它游历的未知的地方。

the unknown places I'll take it.

I didn't actually realize it at the time I got it,

当我得到它时，并没有意识到，

but it would later become a powerful metaphor for my work.

这件物品后来会成为与我工作 相关的一个有力的隐喻。

We all know the saying,

我们都知道这句俗话，

"There's no time like the present."

“现在就是最好的时机。”

But nowadays, it can feel like there's no time but the present.

但是如今，我们可能会觉得 只有现在，没有其他了。

What's immediate and ephemeral seems to dominate our lives,

这些即时和转瞬即逝的东西 似乎主宰着我们的生活，

our economy and our politics.

我们的经济和政治。

It's so easy to get caught up in the number of steps we took today

我们很容易就为今天 走了多少步而兴奋，

or the latest tweet from a high-profile figure.

或为推特上某个网红 最新的推文而着迷。

It's easy for businesses to get caught up in making immediate profits

生意人也容易追逐短期利润

and neglect what's good for future invention.

而忽视对未来发明有益的那些东西。

And it's far too easy for governments to stand by

对政府而言，与为了 供养子孙后代而开展保护相比，

while fisheries and farmland are depleted

对渔场和农场被耗用枯竭

instead of conserved to feed future generations.

袖手旁观实在是再容易不过了。

I have a feeling that, at this rate,

我感觉，以这样的速度下去，

it's going to be hard for our generation to be remembered as good ancestors.

我们的子孙后代很难认为 我们是好的祖先。

If you think about it, our species evolved to think ahead,

想想看，我们这个 种族进化到能够提前计划，

to chart the stars,

绘制星系图，

dream of the afterlife,

幻想来世，

sow seeds for later harvest.

播下种子，以供未来收获。

Some scientists call this superpower that we have "mental time travel,"

有些科学家管这样的超能力 叫做“精神时空旅行。”

and it's responsible for pretty much everything we call human civilization,

这个能力几乎使得我们人类文明中 所有的东西成为了可能，

from farming to the Magna Carta

从农业到《大宪章》，

to the internet --

到互联网——

all first conjured in the minds of humans.

一切都首先是在人类的 头脑中被设想出来的。

But let's get real:

但让我们面对现实：

if we look around us today,

如果我们环顾四周，

we don't exactly seem to be using this superpower quite enough,

我们似乎并没有很好地 使用这个超能力，

and that begs the question: Why not?

那这就引出了问题：为什么？

What's wrong is how our communities, businesses and institutions are designed.

问题在于我们的社区、商业 和机构的设计方式。

They're designed in a way that's impairing our foresight.

它们的设计方式损害了我们的远见。

I want to talk to you about the three key mistakes

我想和你们谈谈三个我们正在

that I think we're making.

犯的主要错误。

The first mistake is what we measure.

第一个错误是我们所测量的东西。

When we look at the quarterly profits of a company

如果我们看看公司的季度收益

or its near-term stock price,

或者是近期的股票价格，

that's often not a great measure

这一般都不是衡量

of whether that company is going to grow its market share

公司未来市场份额会增长

或长期创造力的好标准。

or be inventive in the long run.

When we glue ourselves to the test scores that kids bring back from school,

当我们沉浸在孩子从学校 带回家的考试分数时，

that's not necessarily what's great for those kids' learning

这不一定对孩子们长期学习

and curiosity in the long run.

和好奇心有好处。

We're not measuring what really matters in the future.

我们没有测量那些对未来 真正重要的东西。

The second mistake we're making that impairs our foresight

我们正在犯的损害我们 远见的第二个错误

is what we reward.

是我们所回报的东西。

When we celebrate a political leader or a business leader

当我们为一位政治领袖或商界领袖

for the disaster she just cleaned up

庆祝她刚刚清理的灾难

or the announcement she just made,

或她刚刚发表的声明时，

we're not motivating that leader

我们并没有在激励这个领袖

to invest in preventing those disasters in the first place,

去投资长远的未来， 避免灾难的再次发生，

or to put down payments on the future by protecting communities from floods

比如通过保护社区免受洪水的侵袭， 为未来支付首付款，

or fighting inequality

或是对抗不平等

or investing in research and education.

或是投资研究和教育。

The third mistake that impairs our foresight

损害我们远见的第三个错误是

is what we fail to imagine.

缺乏想象力。

Now, when we do think about the future,

当我们讨论未来的时候，

we tend to focus on predicting exactly what's next,

我们倾向于关注在预测 接下来究竟会发生什么，

whether we're using horoscopes or algorithms to do that.

不管我们是用星座还是算法去预测。

But we spend a lot less time imagining all the possibilities the future holds.

但是我们不怎么花时间去 想象未来的所有可能性。

When the Ebola outbreak emerged in 2014 in West Africa,

2014年西非爆发埃博拉时，

public health officials around the world had early warning signs

全世界的公共卫生官员的预警

and predictive tools

和预测工具

that showed how that outbreak might spread,

都显示这场疫情可能如何传播，

but they failed to fathom that it would,

但是他们没有想到真的传播了，

and they failed to act in time to intervene,

于是他们没有及时采取措施去干预，

and the epidemic grew to kill more than 11,000 people.

这场疫情愈演愈烈， 超过一万一千人为之送命。

When people with lots of resources and good forecasts

当人们拥有资源和准确的预告

don't prepare for deadly hurricanes,

却不为致命的飓风做准备时，

they're often failing to imagine how dangerous they can be.

他们通常没有想象到 这些飓风有多危险。

Now, none of these mistakes that I've described,

我所说的这些错误

as dismal as they might sound,

听起十分令人沮丧，

are inevitable.

不可避免。

In fact, they're all avoidable.

但事实上，它们都是可以避免的。

What we need to make better decisions about the future

为未来做更好的决定，我们需要的

are tools that can aid our foresight,

是有助于我们的远见，

tools that can help us think ahead.

能帮助我们提前规划的工具。

Think of these as something like the telescopes

把这些工具想象成往昔的

that ship captains of yore used when they scanned the horizon.

船长们寻找地平线的望远镜。

Only instead of for looking across distance and the ocean,

区别仅在于这些工具不是 为了在海洋中寻找远方，

these tools are for looking across time to the future.

而是预见未来。

I want to share with you a few of the tools

我想和你们分享几个这样的工具，

that I've found in my research

在我的研究中，我发现

that I think can help us with foresight.

这些工具有助于提高我们的远见。

The first tool I want to share with you

第一个我想分享的工具是

I think of as making the long game pay now.

让长期的游戏现在有回报。

This is Wes Jackson, a farmer I spent some time with in Kansas.

这是 Wes Jackson， 一位堪萨斯州的农民。

And Jackson knows

Jackson知道

that the way that most crops are grown around the world today

当今全球大多数作物的生长方式

is stripping the earth of the fertile topsoil

都在剥离我们需要养活后代的

we need to feed future generations.

肥沃的表层土壤。

He got together with a group of scientists,

他和一些科学家一起

and they bred perennial grain crops which have deep roots

培育了多年生谷物， 这些作物有很深的根，

that anchor the fertile topsoil of a farm,

可以固定农场肥沃的表层土壤，

preventing erosion and protecting future harvests.

从而阻止水土流失， 保护未来的收成。

But they also knew

但是他们也知道

that in order to get farmers to grow these crops in the short run,

要让农民在短期内种植这些作物，

they needed to boost the annual yields of the crops

他们需要提高这些作物的年产量，

and find companies willing to make cereal and beer using the grains

并找到愿意用这些谷物 生产麦片和啤酒的公司。

so that farmers could reap profits today by doing what's good for tomorrow.

这样农民在做对明天有益的事情时， 今天也能获得利润。

And this is a tried-and-true strategy.

这是一个已经被证明可靠的策略。

In fact, it was used by George Washington Carver

实际上，早在二十世纪初期，

in the South of the United States after the Civil War

在美国内战后的南部，

in the early 20th century.

乔治·华盛顿·卡弗就用过这个策略。

A lot of people have probably heard of Carver's 300 uses for the peanut,

很多人也许都听过卡弗 的“花生的三百种用法”，

the products and recipes that he came up with

他所发明的这些产品和配方

that made the peanut so popular.

使得花生非常受欢迎。

But not everyone knows why Carver did that.

但是并不是每个人都知道 卡弗为什么要做这些。

He was trying to help poor Alabama sharecroppers

他当时想要帮助阿拉巴马 棉花产量在锐减

whose cotton yields were declining,

的贫穷佃农，

and he knew that planting peanuts in their fields

卡弗知道如果在田里种了花生，

would replenish those soils

土壤就能得到养分，

so that their cotton yields would be better a few years later.

这样棉花产量就可以 在几年后恢复。

But he also knew it needed to be lucrative for them in the short run.

但是卡弗也知道，在短期内 有利可图也是必要的。

Alright, so let's talk about another tool for foresight.

好的，让我们来聊聊另一个 能让我们有远见的工具。

This one I like to think of as keeping the memory of the past alive

我把这个工具比做是 保持过去的鲜活记忆

to help us imagine the future.

从而帮助我们想象未来。

So I went to Fukushima, Japan

所以我去了日本的福岛，

on the sixth anniversary of the nuclear reactor disaster there

在核电站灾难的第六个纪念日，

that followed the Tohoku earthquake and tsunami of 2011.

即2011年日本东北 大地震大海啸的六年后。

When I was there, I learned about the Onagawa Nuclear Power Station,

我在那里时了解到了女川核电站，

which was even closer to the epicenter of that earthquake

这个核电站比我们都知道 的福岛核电站

than the infamous Fukushima Daiichi that we all know about.

距离地震震中更近。

In Onagawa, people in the city actually fled to the nuclear power plant

事实上，当时女川市的居民还都

as a place of refuge.

撤离到核电站内避难。

It was that safe.

就是这么安全。

It was spared by the tsunamis.

这个核电站免受海啸的破坏。

It was the foresight of just one engineer,

全因为一个工程师的远见，

Yanosuke Hirai,

他就是

that made that happen.

平井弥之助。

In the 1960s, he fought to build that power plant

在六十年代，他力争

farther back from the coast

让核电站建在远离海岸，

at higher elevation and with a higher sea wall.

在海拔更高，海堤更高的地方。

He knew the story of his hometown shrine,

他知道他家乡的神社

which had flooded in the year 869 after a tsunami.

在869年的海啸后被水淹没的故事。

It was his knowledge of history that allowed him to imagine

对历史的了解使得他能够想到

what others could not.

其他人所想不到的。

OK, one more tool of foresight.

还有另一个关于远见的工具。

This one I think of as creating shared heirlooms.

我把这个工具想成 创造共享的传家宝。

These are lobster fishermen on the Pacific coast of Mexico,

在墨西哥的大西洋海岸， 有一群捕捉龙虾的渔民

and they're the ones who taught me this.

教会了我这个工具。

They have protected their lobster harvest there

他们在过去将近一个世纪的时间里

for nearly a century,

保护着龙虾的收成，

and they've done that by treating it as a shared resource

他们的做法是 将龙虾看作是共享的资源，

that they're passing on to their collected children and grandchildren.

而这个资源将传承给 他们的后代子孙，

They carefully measure what they catch

他们仔细地衡量这些收成，

so that they're not taking the breeding lobster out of the ocean.

这样就不会将还在繁殖中的 龙虾捕捉出来。

Across North America, there are more than 30 fisheries

横跨北美，有超过三十个渔场

that are doing something vaguely similar to this.

在做着多多少少相似的事情。

They're creating long-term stakes in the fisheries known as catch shares

他们在捕鱼业中建立了长期 的利益关系，即所谓的“捕捞份额”，

which get fishermen to be motivated

这激发了渔民

not just in taking whatever they can from the ocean today

不仅关注今天从海中 能够获得的东西，

but in its long-term survival.

还有海洋更长期的生存和回报。

Now there are many, many more tools of foresight

实际上有很多能够帮助 我们看得更远的工具，

I would love to share with you,

我很乐意与你们分享，

and they come from all kinds of places:

它们来自于各行各业：

investment firms that look beyond near-term stock prices,

投资公司不仅仅看短期股价，

states that have freed their elections

那些将选举从竞选资助者

from the immediate interests of campaign financiers.

眼前利益中解放出来的州。

And we're going to need to marshal as many of these tools as we can

如果我们想要重新思考 我们所衡量的东西，

if we want to rethink what we measure,

改变我们的奖励方式，

change what we reward

并勇敢地想象未来会发生什么，

and be brave enough to imagine what lies ahead.

我们就需要尽可能多地使用这些工具。

Not all this is going to be easy, as you can imagine.

你们可以料到，这些都不会容易。

Some of these tools we can pick up in our own lives,

有些工具是我们 在生活中可以学会的，

some we're going to need to do in businesses or in communities,

有些需要在行业或者团体中 才能发挥作用，

and some we need to do as a society.

有些则需要我们整个社会的合作。

The future is worth this effort.

未来是值得付出这些努力的。

My own inspiration to keep up this effort is the instrument I shared with you.

我自己继续努力的动力来自 我刚与你们分享的工具。

It's called a dilruba,

它叫迪尔鲁巴琴，

and it was custom-made for my great-grandfather.

这是我曾祖父找人定制的。

He was a well-known music and art critic in India

二十世纪初，我曾祖父 曾是印度知名的

in the early 20th century.

音乐家和艺术评论人。

My great-grandfather had the foresight to protect this instrument

我的曾祖父有保护这件乐器的远见，

at a time when my great-grandmother was pawning off all their belongings,

那时候我曾祖母不得不 当掉所有的东西维持生计，

but that's another story.

但这是另一个故事了。

He protected it by giving it to the next generation,

他通过把它传给下一代来保护它，

by giving it to my grandmother,

我的祖母获得了这件乐器，

and she gave it to me.

她又给了我。

When I first heard the sound of this instrument,

当我第一次听到这件乐器的声音时，

it haunted me.

我深受感动，

It felt like hearing a wanderer in the Himalayan fog.

仿佛漫步于喜马拉雅的晨雾之中，

It felt like hearing a voice from the past.

听见了历史的声音。

(Music)

（音乐响起）

(Music ends)

（音乐结束）

That's my friend Simran Singh playing the dilruba.

这是我的朋友 习慕兰·辛格所演奏的片段。

When I play it, it sounds like a cat's dying somewhere,

我试着弹奏的时候， 听起来好像有只猫濒临惨死，

so you're welcome.

所以不用感谢我 播放这段美妙的旋律。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

This instrument is in my home today,

这件乐器今天还在我家，

but it doesn't actually belong to me.

当实际上却不属于我。

It's my role to shepherd it in time,

我的角色是在时间的长河中照管它，

and that feels more meaningful to me than just owning it for today.

与只是今天拥有它相比， 这对我来说更有意义。

This instrument positions me as both a descendant and an ancestor.

这件乐器将我置身于 后人和祖先之间。

It makes me feel part of a story bigger than my own.

这使我感受到我是 历史长河的一部分。

And this, I believe,

我坚信，

is the single most powerful way we can reclaim foresight:

这是我们可以重新获得远见的 唯一最有力的方式：

by seeing ourselves as the good ancestors we long to be,

就是让自己渴望成为好的祖先，

ancestors not just to our own children

不仅仅是我们自己的子女，

but to all humanity.

而是全人类的祖先。

Whatever your heirloom is,

无论你的传家宝是什么，

however big or small,

无论或大或小，

protect it

保护好它，

and know that its music can resonate for generations.

要知道它的音乐可以 在代际之间产生共鸣。

Thank you.

谢谢。

(Applause)

（掌声）