The power to think ahead in a reckless age | Bina Venkataraman

譯者: Yukun Chen 審譯者: H_L Au

So in the winter of 2012,

2012 年冬天，

I went to visit my grandmother's house

我去拜訪祖母

in South India,

在印度南部的房子，

a place, by the way,

順便說一下，那個地方

where the mosquitos have a special taste for the blood of the American-born.

蚊子對美國出生的人 有著特別的胃口。

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

No joke.

不是開玩笑的。

When I was there, I got an unexpected gift.

我在那裡時，收到一份意外的禮物。

It was this antique instrument

是這個古董樂器，

made more than a century ago,

一個世紀前製造的，

hand-carved from a rare wood,

以罕見的木材手工刻製而成，

inlaid with pearls

鑲嵌滿了珍珠

and with dozens of metal strings.

和數十根金屬弦。

It's a family heirloom,

這是個傳家寶，

a link between my past,

一個連繫我的過去

the country where my parents were born,

──我父母出生的國家──

and the future,

和未來

the unknown places I'll take it.

──我將帶它到達的未知地。

I didn't actually realize it at the time I got it,

我剛得到它時並沒有意識到這一點，

but it would later become a powerful metaphor for my work.

但後來它成為了 我工作的有力隱喻。

We all know the saying,

我們都知道這句話，

"There's no time like the present."

「現在就是最好的時機」。

But nowadays, it can feel like there's no time but the present.

但現今，感覺除了現在， 就沒有其他時間。

What's immediate and ephemeral seems to dominate our lives,

立即和短暫似乎主宰了我們的生活、

our economy and our politics.

經濟和政治。

It's so easy to get caught up in the number of steps we took today

很容易就不知不覺被今天走了幾步，

or the latest tweet from a high-profile figure.

或是某高調人物的最新推特文吸引。

It's easy for businesses to get caught up in making immediate profits

企業很容易太過追求直接利潤，

and neglect what's good for future invention.

而忽視了對未來好的投資。

And it's far too easy for governments to stand by

正當漁業和農地在耗竭，

while fisheries and farmland are depleted

政府也非常容易就袖手旁觀，

instead of conserved to feed future generations.

而非為養育未來一代而做保育。

I have a feeling that, at this rate,

我有種感覺，以目前的速率，

it's going to be hard for our generation to be remembered as good ancestors.

我們這一代將很難 被後人銘記為好的祖先。

If you think about it, our species evolved to think ahead,

試想我們這個物種， 進化到了可以提前計劃、

to chart the stars,

可以畫星圖、

dream of the afterlife,

可以想像來世，

sow seeds for later harvest.

可以為未來的收成而播種。

Some scientists call this superpower that we have "mental time travel,"

有些科學家稱此超能力為 「思想的時間旅行」，

and it's responsible for pretty much everything we call human civilization,

它幾乎負責了我們所謂的人類文明，

from farming to the Magna Carta

從農業耕作到大憲章，

to the internet --

到網路，

all first conjured in the minds of humans.

所有都是在人的思想中起源的。

But let's get real:

但是，讓我們實際一點：

if we look around us today,

如果今天環顧四周，

we don't exactly seem to be using this superpower quite enough,

我們似乎還未能 充分地運用這個超能力。

and that begs the question: Why not?

這讓人不禁要問：為什麼沒有呢？

What's wrong is how our communities, businesses and institutions are designed.

問題在於我們的社群、 企業和機構的設計。

They're designed in a way that's impairing our foresight.

它們被設計出來的方式 損害了我們的前瞻。

I want to talk to you about the three key mistakes

我想和你們討論

我們所犯的三個關鍵錯誤。

that I think we're making.

The first mistake is what we measure.

第一個錯誤是我們所評量的事情。

When we look at the quarterly profits of a company

我們看一間公司的季度盈利報告

or its near-term stock price,

或是短期股票價格，

that's often not a great measure

這個通常並不是評量一家公司

of whether that company is going to grow its market share

其市場佔有率會否增長

or be inventive in the long run.

或長期創造力的好標準。

When we glue ourselves to the test scores that kids bring back from school,

當我們糾結於孩子的校內成績，

that's not necessarily what's great for those kids' learning

但成績卻並不一定有益於孩子的學習

and curiosity in the long run.

及好奇心的長遠發展。

We're not measuring what really matters in the future.

我們沒有評量對未來真正重要的事。

The second mistake we're making that impairs our foresight

損害我們前瞻的第二個錯誤

is what we reward.

是我們所給予的獎勵。

When we celebrate a political leader or a business leader

當我們因某位政治或企業領袖

for the disaster she just cleaned up

為災難善後，

or the announcement she just made,

或所發布的公告而慶祝時，

we're not motivating that leader

我們並沒有在激勵這位領袖

to invest in preventing those disasters in the first place,

去投資於預防災難的發生，

or to put down payments on the future by protecting communities from floods

或為了未來而投入經費， 透過保護社區免受水災之患、

or fighting inequality

對抗不平等，

or investing in research and education.

或是投資研究和教育等方式實現。

The third mistake that impairs our foresight

第三個損害我們前瞻的錯誤，

is what we fail to imagine.

是我們無法想像。

Now, when we do think about the future,

現在，當我們想到未來時，

we tend to focus on predicting exactly what's next,

我們傾向要準確預測接下來會怎樣，

whether we're using horoscopes or algorithms to do that.

不論是用星象還是演算法來預測。

But we spend a lot less time imagining all the possibilities the future holds.

但我們花太少時間 想像未來所有的可能性。

When the Ebola outbreak emerged in 2014 in West Africa,

當伊波拉病毒在 2014 年 開始在西非爆發時，

public health officials around the world had early warning signs

全世界的公共衛生官方 都有收到早期的警示訊息，

and predictive tools

也有預測工具

that showed how that outbreak might spread,

能顯示疾病的爆發會如何擴散，

but they failed to fathom that it would,

但他們卻沒理解到疾病確實會爆發。

and they failed to act in time to intervene,

而且他們未能即時應對，

and the epidemic grew to kill more than 11,000 people.

讓疫情擴大到超過一萬一千人喪生。

When people with lots of resources and good forecasts

當擁有很多資源和準確預報的人

don't prepare for deadly hurricanes,

不為致命的颶風做好準備，

they're often failing to imagine how dangerous they can be.

他們也往往未能想像到 颶風會多麼危險。

Now, none of these mistakes that I've described,

我所說的錯誤，雖然聽起來很慘，

as dismal as they might sound,

但沒有一個，

are inevitable.

是不可避免的。

In fact, they're all avoidable.

事實上，這些都可以避免。

What we need to make better decisions about the future

要為未來做出更好決定，

are tools that can aid our foresight,

我們需要的是 能幫助我們前瞻的工具，

tools that can help us think ahead.

這些工具可以幫助我們提前準備。

Think of these as something like the telescopes

把它們想像成類似望遠鏡的東西，

that ship captains of yore used when they scanned the horizon.

昔日船長用來掃視地平線的望遠鏡。

Only instead of for looking across distance and the ocean,

只是它們不是用來看距離和海洋，

these tools are for looking across time to the future.

而是用來看穿時間看到未來。

I want to share with you a few of the tools

我想和你分享幾個

that I've found in my research

在我研究裡面找到的工具，

that I think can help us with foresight.

這些工具可以幫助我們高瞻遠矚。

The first tool I want to share with you

第一個要分享給你們的工具

I think of as making the long game pay now.

是讓長期抗戰有立即的回報。

This is Wes Jackson, a farmer I spent some time with in Kansas.

這是韋斯·傑克遜， 我在堪薩斯認識的農夫。

And Jackson knows

傑克遜知道，

that the way that most crops are grown around the world today

如今全世界大部分的農作物

is stripping the earth of the fertile topsoil

都在剝削餵養未來世代所需的

we need to feed future generations.

肥沃表層土壤。

He got together with a group of scientists,

他集結了一群科學家，

and they bred perennial grain crops which have deep roots

他們培育了有深根的多年生穀物，

that anchor the fertile topsoil of a farm,

它們會穩固農場的肥沃表層土讓，

preventing erosion and protecting future harvests.

防止侵蝕並保護未來的收成。

But they also knew

但他們也知道，

that in order to get farmers to grow these crops in the short run,

為了要讓其他農夫 在短期內種植這些穀物，

they needed to boost the annual yields of the crops

他們需要提升穀物的年產量，

and find companies willing to make cereal and beer using the grains

和找到願意用這些穀物 做麥片和啤酒的公司，

so that farmers could reap profits today by doing what's good for tomorrow.

因此農夫可以藉由做對明天好的事， 並在今天就可以獲利。

And this is a tried-and-true strategy.

這是一個驗證過的策略。

In fact, it was used by George Washington Carver

事實上，喬治·華盛頓·卡佛

in the South of the United States after the Civil War

在 20 世紀初期

in the early 20th century.

內戰後的美國南部使用過這策略。

A lot of people have probably heard of Carver's 300 uses for the peanut,

很多人可能聽說過卡佛的 花生的三百種用途，

the products and recipes that he came up with

花生製品及他想出來的食譜

that made the peanut so popular.

使得花生如此的盛行。

But not everyone knows why Carver did that.

但並非人人都知道 卡佛這樣做的原因。

He was trying to help poor Alabama sharecroppers

他試著幫助貧窮的阿拉巴馬州佃農，

whose cotton yields were declining,

因為他們的棉花產量下降，

and he knew that planting peanuts in their fields

而他知道，在田裡種植花生

would replenish those soils

會讓土壤再次變得肥沃，

so that their cotton yields would be better a few years later.

這樣佃農的棉花產量 會在幾年後變好。

But he also knew it needed to be lucrative for them in the short run.

但他也知道， 佃農需要在短期內有利潤。

Alright, so let's talk about another tool for foresight.

好吧，讓我們來談談 高瞻遠矚的另一個工具。

This one I like to think of as keeping the memory of the past alive

我喜歡把這個當作 對過去的記憶的保鮮，

to help us imagine the future.

來幫助我們想像未來。

So I went to Fukushima, Japan

我去了日本福島，

on the sixth anniversary of the nuclear reactor disaster there

在東北部地震和海嘯造成的

that followed the Tohoku earthquake and tsunami of 2011.

2011 年核反應器災害 六週年之際。

When I was there, I learned about the Onagawa Nuclear Power Station,

我在那裡時，得知女川核電廠

which was even closer to the epicenter of that earthquake

比當時臭名昭著的福島第一核電廠

than the infamous Fukushima Daiichi that we all know about.

更接近當時地震的震央。

In Onagawa, people in the city actually fled to the nuclear power plant

在女川，城市的人都逃往那核電廠，

as a place of refuge.

把它視為避難所。

It was that safe.

它是這麼地安全。

It was spared by the tsunamis.

它在海嘯中倖免遇難。

It was the foresight of just one engineer,

全靠高瞻遠矚的工程師

Yanosuke Hirai,

平井彌之助，

that made that happen.

他做到了這一點。

In the 1960s, he fought to build that power plant

1960 年代，他爭取讓那個核電廠

farther back from the coast

遠離海岸線，

at higher elevation and with a higher sea wall.

在海拔較高的地方建造， 並同時建造了較高的海牆。

He knew the story of his hometown shrine,

他知道他家鄉神社的故事，

which had flooded in the year 869 after a tsunami.

神社在 869 年的海嘯被淹沒。

It was his knowledge of history that allowed him to imagine

對歷史的知識讓他可以想像到

what others could not.

其他人無法想像的事情。

OK, one more tool of foresight.

好，再一個高瞻遠矚的工具。

This one I think of as creating shared heirlooms.

這個工具我覺得是 創造共享的傳家寶。

These are lobster fishermen on the Pacific coast of Mexico,

照片裡的是在墨西哥 太平洋沿岸捕捉龍蝦的漁夫，

and they're the ones who taught me this.

是他們教我這個的。

They have protected their lobster harvest there

他們已保護當地的龍蝦資源

for nearly a century,

近一個世紀，

and they've done that by treating it as a shared resource

他們是透過把龍蝦當作共享的資源，

that they're passing on to their collected children and grandchildren.

而資源要傳給他們的子子孫孫 因此而做到的。

They carefully measure what they catch

他們小心地衡量他們所捕捉的龍蝦，

so that they're not taking the breeding lobster out of the ocean.

確保不會把繁殖中的龍蝦抓走。

Across North America, there are more than 30 fisheries

在北美，有超過三十多個水產業

that are doing something vaguely similar to this.

在做大致類似的事情。

They're creating long-term stakes in the fisheries known as catch shares

他們在魚塭中創造名為 「漁獲股票」的長期股權，

which get fishermen to be motivated

這種形式讓漁夫不僅

not just in taking whatever they can from the ocean today

有動機為當天的捕捉量努力，

but in its long-term survival.

也為保護海洋的長期生存而努力。

Now there are many, many more tools of foresight

現在有很多很多高瞻遠矚的工具

I would love to share with you,

我想和你分享，

and they come from all kinds of places:

它們來自各種不同的地方：

investment firms that look beyond near-term stock prices,

眼光超越短期股票價格的投資公司，

states that have freed their elections

讓選舉擺脫競選贊助商 所給予當下利益的州份。

from the immediate interests of campaign financiers.

And we're going to need to marshal as many of these tools as we can

而我們要盡可能編組這些工具，

if we want to rethink what we measure,

如果我們想重新思考所評量的事物、

change what we reward

改變我們獎勵的方式，

and be brave enough to imagine what lies ahead.

和夠勇敢去想像前方的路上有什麼。

Not all this is going to be easy, as you can imagine.

可想而知，這些都不容易。

Some of these tools we can pick up in our own lives,

有些工具可在自己生活中使用，

some we're going to need to do in businesses or in communities,

有些需要在企業或社區中使用，

and some we need to do as a society.

而有些則是需要 以社會的面向來使用。

The future is worth this effort.

未來值得這樣的努力。

My own inspiration to keep up this effort is the instrument I shared with you.

啟發我堅持這份努力的 是我剛才分享的樂器。

It's called a dilruba,

它叫迪爾魯巴琴，

and it was custom-made for my great-grandfather.

而且是為我曾祖父訂製的。

He was a well-known music and art critic in India

他是印度 20 世紀早期 知名的音樂和藝術評論家。

in the early 20th century.

My great-grandfather had the foresight to protect this instrument

我曾祖母要當掉他們所有的東西時，

at a time when my great-grandmother was pawning off all their belongings,

曾祖父就有遠見要保護這個樂器，

but that's another story.

不過那是另外一個故事了。

He protected it by giving it to the next generation,

他以代代相傳的方式保護了它，

by giving it to my grandmother,

先傳給了我的祖母，

and she gave it to me.

然後祖母又傳給了我，

When I first heard the sound of this instrument,

但我第一次聽到這個樂器的聲音時，

it haunted me.

就被它迷住了。

It felt like hearing a wanderer in the Himalayan fog.

就如聽見喜馬拉雅山脈 霧中的漫遊者。

It felt like hearing a voice from the past.

如同聽到來自過去的聲音。

(Music)

（音樂）

(Music ends)

（音樂結束）

That's my friend Simran Singh playing the dilruba.

這是我朋友辛蘭·辛格 在彈奏迪爾魯巴琴 。

When I play it, it sounds like a cat's dying somewhere,

我彈時，聽起來像是有隻貓要死了，

so you're welcome.

所以，不客氣。

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

This instrument is in my home today,

這個樂器如今在我家。

but it doesn't actually belong to me.

但它卻不屬於我。

It's my role to shepherd it in time,

我的角色是適時照顧它。

and that feels more meaningful to me than just owning it for today.

這對我來說 比現在擁有它更有意義。

This instrument positions me as both a descendant and an ancestor.

這樂器讓我成為了繼承者 同時也是個傳承者。

It makes me feel part of a story bigger than my own.

讓我覺得自己是一個比自己 大得多的故事的一部分。

And this, I believe,

而這，我相信，

is the single most powerful way we can reclaim foresight:

就是我們可以高瞻遠矚 最強大的唯一方式：

by seeing ourselves as the good ancestors we long to be,

把自己看成想要成為的好傳承者，

ancestors not just to our own children

不僅是我們自己孩子的傳承者

but to all humanity.

也是全人類的傳承者。

Whatever your heirloom is,

無論你的傳家寶是什麼，

however big or small,

是大是小，

protect it

保護它，

and know that its music can resonate for generations.

並且銘記它的音樂可在世代中迴盪。

Thank you.

謝謝。

(Applause)

（掌聲）