The power to think ahead in a reckless age | Bina Venkataraman

Prevoditelj: Martina Peraic Recezent: Sanda L

So in the winter of 2012,

U zimi 2012. godine

I went to visit my grandmother's house

posjetila sam kuću svoje bake

in South India,

u južnoj Indiji,

a place, by the way,

mjestu gdje, usput,

where the mosquitos have a special taste for the blood of the American-born.

komarci imaju poseban tek za krvlju Amerikanaca.

(Laughter)

(Smijeh)

No joke.

Nije šala.

When I was there, I got an unexpected gift.

Dok sam bila ondje, dobila sam neočekivan dar.

It was this antique instrument

Bio je to ovaj drevni instrument

made more than a century ago,

izrađen prije više od stoljeća,

hand-carved from a rare wood,

ručno izrezbaren iz rijetkog drveta,

inlaid with pearls

ispunjen biserima

and with dozens of metal strings.

i s desecima metalnih žica.

It's a family heirloom,

To je obiteljsko nasljeđe,

a link between my past,

poveznica između moje prošlosti,

the country where my parents were born,

zemlje u kojoj su rođeni moji roditelji,

and the future,

i budućnosti,

the unknown places I'll take it.

svih nepoznatih mjesta na koja ću ga ponijeti.

I didn't actually realize it at the time I got it,

Nisam to shvaćala kada sam ga dobila,

but it would later become a powerful metaphor for my work.

ali on će kasnije postati snažna metafora za moj rad.

We all know the saying,

Svima nam je poznata izreka,

"There's no time like the present."

"Nijedno vrijeme nije kao sadašnjost."

But nowadays, it can feel like there's no time but the present.

Ali danas se može činiti da nema drugog vremena osim sadašnjosti.

What's immediate and ephemeral seems to dominate our lives,

Trenutno i nestalno dominira našim životima,

our economy and our politics.

našom ekonomijom i politikom.

It's so easy to get caught up in the number of steps we took today

Tako je lako zaokupiti se brojem koraka koje smo učinili danas

or the latest tweet from a high-profile figure.

ili objavom na Twitteru poznate ličnosti.

It's easy for businesses to get caught up in making immediate profits

Poduzećima je tako lako zaokupiti se trenutnim profitom

and neglect what's good for future invention.

i zapostaviti ono što je dobro za buduće inovacije.

And it's far too easy for governments to stand by

I vladama je tako lako stajati postrani

while fisheries and farmland are depleted

dok propadaju ribarstvo i poljoprivreda,

instead of conserved to feed future generations.

umjesto da ih se očuva kako bi hranili buduće naraštaje.

I have a feeling that, at this rate,

Imam osjećaj da će, ovim tempom,

it's going to be hard for our generation to be remembered as good ancestors.

biti teško sjećati se našeg naraštaja kao dobrih predaka.

If you think about it, our species evolved to think ahead,

Ako malo razmislite, naša vrsta razvila se tako da misli unaprijed,

to chart the stars,

da napravi kartu zvijezda,

dream of the afterlife,

sanja o životu nakon smrti,

sow seeds for later harvest.

posije sjeme za kasniju žetvu.

Some scientists call this superpower that we have "mental time travel,"

Neki znanstvenici nazivaju ovu supermoć "mentalnim putovanjem kroz vrijeme",

and it's responsible for pretty much everything we call human civilization,

i odgovorna je za gotovo sve što danas zovemo ljudskom civilizacijom,

from farming to the Magna Carta

od poljoprivrede do Velike povelje o ljudskim slobodama,

to the internet --

do interneta --

all first conjured in the minds of humans.

sve je to ponajprije nastalo u umovima ljudi.

But let's get real:

Ali pogledajmo u realnost:

if we look around us today,

ogledamo li se oko sebe danas,

we don't exactly seem to be using this superpower quite enough,

čini se da baš i ne koristimo dovoljno tu supermoć,

and that begs the question: Why not?

a to zahtijeva pitanje: zašto ne?

What's wrong is how our communities, businesses and institutions are designed.

Naše zajednice, poduzeća i institucije su pogrešno osmišljene.

They're designed in a way that's impairing our foresight.

Osmišljene su na način koji oštećuje naše predviđanje.

I want to talk to you about the three key mistakes

Želim vam govoriti o tri ključne pogreške

that I think we're making.

koje mislim da radimo.

The first mistake is what we measure.

Prva pogreška je ono što mjerimo.

When we look at the quarterly profits of a company

Ako pogledamo kvartalnu dobit poduzeća

or its near-term stock price,

ili cijenu dionice nedugo prije kraja burzovnog razdoblja,

that's often not a great measure

to često nije dobra mjera

of whether that company is going to grow its market share

hoće li to poduzeće povećati svoj udio u tržištu

or be inventive in the long run.

ili biti dugoročno inovativno.

When we glue ourselves to the test scores that kids bring back from school,

Ako smo opsjednuti rezultatima testova koje nam djeca donose iz škole,

that's not necessarily what's great for those kids' learning

to nije nužno dobar pokazatelj onoga što djeca nauče,

and curiosity in the long run.

niti dugoročne znatiželjnosti.

We're not measuring what really matters in the future.

Ne mjerimo ono što je doista bitno za budućnost.

The second mistake we're making that impairs our foresight

Druga pogreška koju činimo koja oštećuje naše predviđanje

is what we reward.

jest što nagrađujemo.

When we celebrate a political leader or a business leader

Kada slavimo političkog ili poslovnog lidera

for the disaster she just cleaned up

zbog katastrofe koju je upravo počistio

or the announcement she just made,

ili zbog najave koju je upravo razglasio,

we're not motivating that leader

mi ne motiviramo tog lidera

to invest in preventing those disasters in the first place,

da uloži u sprječavanje da do takve katastrofe uopće dođe,

or to put down payments on the future by protecting communities from floods

da uloži u budućnost stvarajući zaštitu od poplava,

or fighting inequality

ili suzbijajući nejednakost,

or investing in research and education.

ili ulažući u istraživanje i obrazovanje.

The third mistake that impairs our foresight

Treća pogreška koja oštećuje naše predviđanje

is what we fail to imagine.

je ono što nismo u mogućnosti zamisliti.

Now, when we do think about the future,

A kada i razmišljamo o budućnosti,

we tend to focus on predicting exactly what's next,

obično se usredotočimo na predviđanje onog što je neposredno sljedeće,

whether we're using horoscopes or algorithms to do that.

bilo da se pritom služimo horoskopima ili algoritmima.

But we spend a lot less time imagining all the possibilities the future holds.

Ali trošimo puno manje vremena na zamišljanje svih mogućnosti za budućnost.

When the Ebola outbreak emerged in 2014 in West Africa,

Kada je izbila ebola u zapadnoj Africi 2014. godine,

public health officials around the world had early warning signs

činovnici javnog zdravstva u cijelom svijetu imali su rane znakove uzbune

and predictive tools

i alate za predviđanje

that showed how that outbreak might spread,

koji su pokazivali kako bi se zaraza mogla raširiti,

but they failed to fathom that it would,

ali nisu uspjeli shvatiti da će se doista proširiti

and they failed to act in time to intervene,

i propustili su djelovati na vrijeme da to suzbiju,

and the epidemic grew to kill more than 11,000 people.

a epidemija se raširila toliko da je ubila 11 tisuća ljudi.

When people with lots of resources and good forecasts

Kada se ljudi s mnoštvom resursa i dobrim prognozama

don't prepare for deadly hurricanes,

ne pripreme za smrtonosne uragane,

they're often failing to imagine how dangerous they can be.

često propuštaju zamisliti koliko opasni uragani mogu biti.

Now, none of these mistakes that I've described,

Nijedna od ovih pogrešaka koje sam opisala,

as dismal as they might sound,

koliko god strašnima se činile,

are inevitable.

nije neizbježna.

In fact, they're all avoidable.

Zapravo, sve ih je moguće izbjeći.

What we need to make better decisions about the future

Kako bismo donosili bolje odluke o budućnosti,

are tools that can aid our foresight,

trebamo alate koji nam pomažu u predviđanju,

tools that can help us think ahead.

alate koji nam mogu pomoći da razmišljamo unaprijed.

Think of these as something like the telescopes

Razmišljajte o njima kao o teleskopima

that ship captains of yore used when they scanned the horizon.

koje su kapetani brodova u davnini koristili kada su promatrali obzor.

Only instead of for looking across distance and the ocean,

Ali umjesto gledanja u daljinu i ocean,

these tools are for looking across time to the future.

ovi alati gledaju kroz vrijeme u budućnost.

I want to share with you a few of the tools

Želim podijeliti s vama nekoliko alata

that I've found in my research

koje sam otkrila u svom istraživanju,

that I think can help us with foresight.

koji nam mogu pomoći s predviđanjem.

The first tool I want to share with you

Prvi alat koji želim podijeliti s vama

I think of as making the long game pay now.

čini da se igranje na duge staze isplati odmah sada.

This is Wes Jackson, a farmer I spent some time with in Kansas.

Ovo je Wes Jackson, poljoprivrednik s kojim sam provela neko vrijeme u Kansasu.

And Jackson knows

Jackson zna

that the way that most crops are grown around the world today

da način uzgajanja većine kultura na svijetu danas

is stripping the earth of the fertile topsoil

iscrpljuje plodni površinski sloj zemlje

we need to feed future generations.

koji nam treba da prehranimo buduće naraštaje.

He got together with a group of scientists,

Udružio se sa skupinom znanstvenika

and they bred perennial grain crops which have deep roots

i uzgojili su višegodišnje žitne kulture dubokih korijena

that anchor the fertile topsoil of a farm,

koji učvršćuju plodan površinski sloj zemlje na farmi,

preventing erosion and protecting future harvests.

sprječavajući eroziju tla i štiteći buduće žetve.

But they also knew

Ali također su znali da,

that in order to get farmers to grow these crops in the short run,

kako bi u kratkom roku pridobili poljoprivrednike da uzgajaju ovu kulturu,

they needed to boost the annual yields of the crops

moraju povećati godišnji prinos kulture

and find companies willing to make cereal and beer using the grains

te pronaći tvrtke spremne proizvoditi žitne pahuljice i pivo koristeći žito,

so that farmers could reap profits today by doing what's good for tomorrow.

kako bi poljoprivrednici pobrali dobit danas čineći dobro za sutrašnjicu.

And this is a tried-and-true strategy.

Ovo je oprobana i učinkovita strategija.

In fact, it was used by George Washington Carver

Zapravo, George Washington Carver koristio se njome

in the South of the United States after the Civil War

na jugu SAD-a nakon Građanskog rata

in the early 20th century.

u ranom 20. stoljeću.

A lot of people have probably heard of Carver's 300 uses for the peanut,

Mnogi su zasigurno čuli za Carverovih 300 upotreba kikirikija,

the products and recipes that he came up with

proizvode i recepte koje je smislio,

that made the peanut so popular.

a koji su učinili kikiriki toliko popularnim.

But not everyone knows why Carver did that.

Ali većina ne zna zašto je Carver to učinio.

He was trying to help poor Alabama sharecroppers

Pokušavao je pomoći siromašnim uzgajivačima u Alabami

whose cotton yields were declining,

čiji je prinos pamuka opadao,

a on je znao kako će sadnja kikirikija na njihovim poljima

and he knew that planting peanuts in their fields

would replenish those soils

obnoviti tu zemlju

so that their cotton yields would be better a few years later.

kako bi prinosi pamuka bili bolji nekoliko godina poslije.

But he also knew it needed to be lucrative for them in the short run.

Ali također je znao da to mora biti isplativo u kratkom roku.

Alright, so let's talk about another tool for foresight.

Dobro, pričajmo o još jednom alatu za predviđanje.

This one I like to think of as keeping the memory of the past alive

Volim razmišljati o njemu kao održanju sjećanja na prošlost živim

to help us imagine the future.

kako bi nam pomoglo zamisliti budućnost.

So I went to Fukushima, Japan

Otišla sam u Fukushimu u Japan

on the sixth anniversary of the nuclear reactor disaster there

prigodom šeste obljetnice nesreće u nuklearnom reaktoru,

that followed the Tohoku earthquake and tsunami of 2011.

nakon potresa Tohoku i tsunamija 2011. godine.

When I was there, I learned about the Onagawa Nuclear Power Station,

Dok sam bila ondje, saznala sam za Onagawa postaju za nuklearnu energiju,

which was even closer to the epicenter of that earthquake

koja je bila još bliža epicentru tog potresa

than the infamous Fukushima Daiichi that we all know about.

nego zloglasna Fukushima Daiichi za koju svi jako dobro znamo.

In Onagawa, people in the city actually fled to the nuclear power plant

U Onagawi, ljudi iz grada su zapravo pobjegli u tvornicu nuklearne energije

as a place of refuge.

kao mjesto skloništa.

It was that safe.

Bila je toliko sigurna.

It was spared by the tsunamis.

Tsunamiji su je poštedjeli.

It was the foresight of just one engineer,

Radilo se o predviđanju tek jednog inženjera,

Yanosuke Hirai,

Yanosuke Hirai,

that made that happen.

koji je to omogućio.

In the 1960s, he fought to build that power plant

1960-ih godina, borio se za to da izgradi tu nuklearku

farther back from the coast

puno dalje od obale

at higher elevation and with a higher sea wall.

i na višoj nadmorskoj visini, s višim zidom zaštite od vode.

He knew the story of his hometown shrine,

Znao je za priču o hramu u svome rodnom gradu,

which had flooded in the year 869 after a tsunami.

koji je bio potopljen 869. godine nakon tsunamija.

It was his knowledge of history that allowed him to imagine

Njegovo poznavanje povijesti omogućilo mu je da zamisli

what others could not.

nešto što drugi nisu mogli.

OK, one more tool of foresight.

Dobro, još jedan alat za predviđanje.

This one I think of as creating shared heirlooms.

O ovome razmišljam kao o stvaranju zajedničkih nasljeđa.

These are lobster fishermen on the Pacific coast of Mexico,

Ovo su ribari jastoga na meksičkoj obali Tihog oceana,

and they're the ones who taught me this.

i oni su me naučili ovome.

They have protected their lobster harvest there

Oni štite svoj ulov jastoga ondje

for nearly a century,

gotovo cijelo stoljeće,

and they've done that by treating it as a shared resource

a to čine tretirajući ga kao zajednički izvor

that they're passing on to their collected children and grandchildren.

koji će prenijeti na svu svoju djecu i unuke.

They carefully measure what they catch

Pažljivo mjere što ulove

so that they're not taking the breeding lobster out of the ocean.

kako ne bi izlovljavali jastoge koji se pare iz oceana.

Across North America, there are more than 30 fisheries

Diljem sjeverne Amerike ima preko 30 ribarskih udruga

that are doing something vaguely similar to this.

koje čine nešto poput ovoga.

They're creating long-term stakes in the fisheries known as catch shares

Stvaraju dugoročne prinose za ribare, znane kao udjeli u izlovu,

which get fishermen to be motivated

koji motiviraju ribare,

not just in taking whatever they can from the ocean today

ne samo da danas izlove iz oceana koliko mogu,

but in its long-term survival.

nego na dugoročni opstanak.

Now there are many, many more tools of foresight

Postoji još jako mnogo alata za predviđanje

I would love to share with you,

koje bih voljela podijeliti s vama,

and they come from all kinds of places:

i dolaze s najrazličitijih mjesta:

investment firms that look beyond near-term stock prices,

investicijskih tvrtki koje predviđaju dalje od kratkoročne cijene dionica,

states that have freed their elections

država koje su oslobodile svoje izbore

from the immediate interests of campaign financiers.

od neposrednih interesa osoba koje financiraju kampanje.

And we're going to need to marshal as many of these tools as we can

I morat ćemo sabrati i organizirati što više tih alata

if we want to rethink what we measure,

ako želimo razmotriti ono što mjerimo,

change what we reward

promijeniti ono što nagrađujemo,

and be brave enough to imagine what lies ahead.

i biti dovoljno hrabri da zamislimo što dolazi u budućnosti.

Not all this is going to be easy, as you can imagine.

Kao što možete pretpostaviti, sve to neće biti jednostavno.

Some of these tools we can pick up in our own lives,

Neke od tih alata možemo uzeti iz vlastitog života,

some we're going to need to do in businesses or in communities,

neke ćemo morati razviti unutar naših poslova i zajednica,

and some we need to do as a society.

a neke ćemo morati stvoriti kao društvo.

The future is worth this effort.

Budućnost zaslužuje ovaj trud.

My own inspiration to keep up this effort is the instrument I shared with you.

Moje nadahnuće da nastavim s trudom jest instrument koji sam vam pokazala.

It's called a dilruba,

Zove se dilruba,

and it was custom-made for my great-grandfather.

izrađen je po narudžbi za moga pradjeda.

He was a well-known music and art critic in India

On je bio poznati kritičar glazbe i umjetnosti u Indiji,

in the early 20th century.

u ranom 20. stoljeću.

My great-grandfather had the foresight to protect this instrument

Moj pradjed imao je predviđanje da zaštiti ovaj instrument

at a time when my great-grandmother was pawning off all their belongings,

u vrijeme kada je moja prabaka zalagala sve što su posjedovali,

but that's another story.

ali to je druga priča.

He protected it by giving it to the next generation,

Zaštitio ga je tako što ga je predao sljedećem naraštaju,

by giving it to my grandmother,

predajući ga mojoj baki,

and she gave it to me.

a ona ga je dala meni.

When I first heard the sound of this instrument,

Kada sam prvi put čula zvuk ovoga instrumenta,

it haunted me.

on me proganjao.

It felt like hearing a wanderer in the Himalayan fog.

Bilo je kao da čujem zalutaloga u magli Himalaje.

It felt like hearing a voice from the past.

Bilo je kao da čujem glas iz prošlosti.

(Music)

(Glazba)

(Music ends)

(Glazba prestaje)

That's my friend Simran Singh playing the dilruba.

To je moj prijatelj Simran Singh kako svira dilrubu.

When I play it, it sounds like a cat's dying somewhere,

Kada je ja sviram, zvuči kao da mačka negdje umire,

so you're welcome.

pa nema na čemu.

(Laughter)

(Smijeh)

This instrument is in my home today,

Instrument je danas u mome domu,

but it doesn't actually belong to me.

ali zapravo ne pripada meni.

It's my role to shepherd it in time,

Moja zadaća je da ga pričuvam u vremenu,

and that feels more meaningful to me than just owning it for today.

i to mi se čini važnijim od pukog posjedovanja za danas.

This instrument positions me as both a descendant and an ancestor.

Instrument me određuje ujedno i kao potomka i kao pretka.

It makes me feel part of a story bigger than my own.

Čini da se osjećam dijelom jedne priče koja je veća od moje vlastite.

And this, I believe,

A to je, vjerujem,

is the single most powerful way we can reclaim foresight:

najmoćniji način kako možemo povratiti predviđanje:

by seeing ourselves as the good ancestors we long to be,

smatrajući sebe samima dobrim precima kakvima žudimo biti,

ancestors not just to our own children

precima ne samo svoje djece,

but to all humanity.

nego cjelokupnog čovječanstva.

Whatever your heirloom is,

Što god da je vaše nasljeđe,

however big or small,

bilo veliko ili malo,

protect it

zaštitite ga

and know that its music can resonate for generations.

i znajte da njegova glazba može odjekivati naraštajima.

Thank you.

Hvala.

(Applause)

(Pljesak)