Elon Musk: A future worth getting excited about | Tesla Texas Gigafactory interview | TED

Chris Anderson: Elon Musk, great to see you.

翻译人员: Lermes M 校对人员: Yanyan Hong

克里斯·安德森： 埃隆·马斯克，很高兴见到你。

How are you?

你好吗？

Elon Musk: Good. How are you?

埃隆·马斯克：很好，你怎么样？

CA: We're here at the Texas Gigafactory the day before this thing opens.

安德森：我们在德州工厂 开幕的前一天来到这里，

It's been pretty crazy out there.

这里的东西太棒了。

Thank you so much for making time on a busy day.

非常感谢你在百忙之中抽出时间，

I would love you to help us, kind of, cast our minds,

我希望你能给我们讲一讲，

I don't know, 10, 20, 30 years into the future.

10年，20年，30年之后的未来是什么样子的，

And help us try to picture what it would take

并且谈一谈我们需要做些什么，

to build a future that's worth getting excited about.

从而创造一个令我们向往的未来。

The last time you spoke at TED,

上次你在 TED 演讲时，

you said that that was really just a big driver.

你提到有一个很强的东西激励着你，

You know, you can talk about lots of other reasons to do the work you're doing,

你可以给你正在从事的事业说出很多的理由，

but fundamentally, you want to think about the future

可这之中最重要的原因是你想要考虑未来，

and not think that it sucks.

而不是考虑他有多么的糟糕。

EM: Yeah, absolutely.

马斯克：对，没错。

I think in general, you know,

我认为总体而言

there's a lot of discussion of like, this problem or that problem.

对于这样那样的问题，我们有许多看法，

And a lot of people are sad about the future

很多人对未来倍感悲伤，

and they're ...

而且他们……

Pessimistic.

很悲观。

And I think ...

我认为……

this is ...

这样……

This is not great.

这样不太好。

I mean, we really want to wake up in the morning

我想说，我们的确想在早上醒来后

and look forward to the future.

对未来充满期望，

We want to be excited about what's going to happen.

我们希望对一切即将到来的事情感到兴奋，

And life cannot simply be about sort of,

生活不能只是单纯地

solving one miserable problem after another.

解决一个又一个痛苦的问题。

CA: So if you look forward 30 years, you know, the year 2050

安德森：所以如果你展望 30 年后的生活， 也就是 2050 年

has been labeled by scientists

已经被科学家们打上了标签，

as this, kind of, almost like this doomsday deadline on climate.

有点像是解决气候问题的最后期限。

There's a consensus of scientists, a large consensus of scientists,

科学家们有一个共识，一个广泛的共识，

who believe that if we haven't completely eliminated greenhouse gases

他们认为如果我们不完全消除温室气体，

or offset them completely by 2050,

或者到 2050 年 还没有完全消除温室气体的影响，

effectively we're inviting climate catastrophe.

那么我们实际上就是在引发气候灾难。

Do you believe there is a pathway to avoid that catastrophe?

你相信有什么途径可以避免这种灾难吗？

And what would it look like?

这条途径会是什么样子？

EM: Yeah, so I am not one of the doomsday people,

马斯克：没错，我不是世界末日论者。

which may surprise you.

你可能会对此感到惊讶，

I actually think we're on a good path.

实际上，我觉得我们正走在一条很好的道路上，

But at the same time,

但同时，

I want to caution against complacency.

我想提醒大家不要自满，

So, so long as we are not complacent,

所以，只要我们不自满，

as long as we have a high sense of urgency

只要我们就有一种高度的紧迫感，

about moving towards a sustainable energy economy,

努力实现可持续的能源经济。

then I think things will be fine.

那么我想一切都会好起来的。

So I can't emphasize that enough,

所以我非常强调

as long as we push hard and are not complacent,

只要我们足够努力且不自满，

the future is going to be great.

那么未来将十分美好。

Don't worry about it.

不必担心，

I mean, worry about it,

我的意思是，还是要担心一下。

but if you worry about it, ironically, it will be a self-unfulfilling prophecy.

但讽刺的是，如果你担心， 这个预言本身就会前后矛盾无法实现了

So, like, there are three elements to a sustainable energy future.

所以，实现可持续能源的未来要有三个因素：

One is of sustainable energy generation, which is primarily wind and solar.

第一是可持续能源发电， 主要是风能和太阳能

There's also hydro, geothermal,

还有水能，地热能，

I'm actually pro-nuclear.

我支持核能发电，

I think nuclear is fine.

我认为核能发电没什么问题。

But it's going to be primarily solar and wind,

但主要还是太阳能和风能，

as the primary generators of energy.

作为主要的电力来源；

The second part is you need batteries to store the solar and wind energy

第二是你需要电池来储存太阳能和风能，

because the sun doesn't shine all the time,

因为太阳并不会一直照耀，

the wind doesn't blow all the time.

风不会一直在吹，

So it's a lot of stationary battery packs.

所以这就需要大量的固定电池组。

And then you need electric transport.

第三是你需要实现电力传输，

So electric cars, electric planes, boats.

从而支持电动汽车、电动飞机、电动船，

And then ultimately,

而最后，

it’s not really possible to make electric rockets,

我们似乎不太可能造的出电动火箭，

but you can make the propellant used in rockets

但是可以让火箭发射的推进剂

using sustainable energy.

使用可持续能源。

So ultimately, we can have a fully sustainable energy economy.

这样我们就可以最终拥有一个 完全可持续的能源经济，

And it's those three things:

在那三个东西的帮助下，

solar/wind, stationary battery pack, electric vehicles.

也就是太阳能/风能， 固定电池组，电动交通工具。

So then what are the limiting factors on progress?

那么什么是限制进步的因素呢？

The limiting factor really will be battery cell production.

真正限制的因素将会是电池的生产，

So that's going to really be the fundamental rate driver.

这一点会是影响发展速度最关键的因素。

And then whatever the slowest element

生产过程中发展最慢的因素

of the whole lithium-ion battery cells supply chain,

即在整个锂离子电池供应链中，

from mining and the many steps of refining

从采矿和提炼的多个步骤

to ultimately creating a battery cell

到最终制成锂离子电池并将其打包，

and putting it into a pack,

that will be the limiting factor on progress towards sustainability.

其中发展最慢的部分 将限制可持续发展的进步。

CA: All right, so we need to talk more about batteries,

安德森：好的， 所以我们需要更多地谈一谈电池，

because the key thing that I want to understand,

因为我最想了解的是

like, there seems to be a scaling issue here

似乎有一个关于电池量规模的问题，

that is kind of amazing and alarming.

有点令人惊讶且令人担忧。

You have said that you have calculated

你曾说你已经计算了

that the amount of battery production that the world needs for sustainability

世界可持续发展所需要的电池产量

is 300 terawatt hours of batteries.

达到了300太瓦时，

That's the end goal?

这是我们的最终目标吗？

EM: Very rough numbers,

马斯克：这只是一个非常粗略的数字，

and I certainly would invite others to check our calculations

我当然会邀请其他人来验证我们的计算，

because they may arrive at different conclusions.

因为他们可能会得出不同的结论，

But in order to transition, not just current electricity production,

但是为了实现可持续能源的过渡， 除了目前的电力生产外，

but also heating and transport,

还有供暖和交通需要改变。

which roughly triples the amount of electricity that you need,

因为其消耗的能量大概是所需电量的三倍，

it amounts to approximately 300 terawatt hours of installed capacity.

而它的装机容量大约为 300 太瓦时。

CA: So we need to give people a sense of how big a task that is.

安德森：所以我们需要让人们知道 这个任务是多么的庞大，

I mean, here we are at the Gigafactory.

我们现在身处于特斯拉超级工厂，

You know, this is one of the biggest buildings in the world.

这是世界上最大的建筑之一。

What I've read, and tell me if this is still right,

我了解到的是

is that the goal here is to eventually produce 100 gigawatt hours

这里的最终目标是 一年要生产 100 千兆瓦时的电池，

of batteries here a year eventually.

现在的目标还是这样吗？

EM: We will probably do more than that,

马斯克：我们可能会生产得更多

but yes, hopefully we get there within a couple of years.

但我们的确希望能在几年内做到这一点。

CA: Right.

安德森：好的。

But I mean, that is one --

但我的意思是，这是 1 ——

EM: 0.1 terrawat hours.

马斯克：0.1 太瓦时。

CA: But that's still 1/100 of what's needed.

安德森：但这依然只有我们需要的百分之一，

How much of the rest of that 100 is Tesla planning to take on

剩下的部分特斯拉准备接手多少？

let's say, between now and 2030, 2040,

比如说：从现在到 2030 或 2040 年

when we really need to see the scale up happen?

也就是到真正需要扩大电池生产规模的时候？

EM: I mean, these are just guesses.

马斯克：我的意思是，这些还只是猜测

So please, people shouldn't hold me to these things.

所以人们不必因为这种预测责怪我，

It's not like this is like some --

这又不是什么……

What tends to happen is I'll make some like,

通常会发生的事情是：我会做出一些

you know, best guess

尽我所能可以做出的最好猜测，

and then people, in five years,

然后在五年后，

there’ll be some jerk that writes an article:

一定会有一些混蛋写一篇这样的文章：

"Elon said this would happen, and it didn't happen.

“马斯克曾说这件事一定会发生，但并没有

He's a liar and a fool."

他就是个骗子，是个傻瓜。”

It's very annoying when that happens.

这种事情很让人生气，

So these are just guesses, this is a conversation.

所以这些只是一些猜测，只限于谈话。

CA: Right.

安德森：没错。

EM: I think Tesla probably ends up doing 10 percent of that.

马斯克：我认为特斯拉最终 可能会承担 10% 的制造任务，

Roughly.

大概是这样。

CA: Let's say 2050

安德森：假设 2050 年，

we have this amazing, you know, 100 percent sustainable electric grid

我们拥有了这个无比神奇的， 完全可持续的电网，

made up of, you know, some mixture of the sustainable energy sources

并由一些你谈到的多种可持续能源支持，

you talked about.

That same grid probably is offering the world

同样的电网也可能在全世界推广

really low-cost energy, isn't it,

和现在相比

compared with now.

这种能源的生产成本很低，不是吗？

And I'm curious about like,

我很好奇，

are people entitled to get a little bit excited

人们是不是应该兴奋一下，

about the possibilities of that world?

因为这样的未来可能发生？

EM: People should be optimistic about the future.

马斯克：人们应该对这样的未来保持乐观，

Humanity will solve sustainable energy.

人类将解决可持续能源的问题。

It will happen if we, you know, continue to push hard,

只要我们不断努力，这一切就可以实现，

the future is bright and good from an energy standpoint.

从能源的角度来看，未来一片光明美好。

And then it will be possible to also use that energy to do carbon sequestration.

这样就有可能利用这些能源进行碳封存，

It takes a lot of energy to pull carbon out of the atmosphere

从大气中吸收碳需要大量的能量，

because in putting it in the atmosphere it releases energy.

因为在排放含碳气体会放出能量。

So now, you know, obviously in order to pull it out,

现在，很明显为了从大气中吸收碳，

you need to use a lot of energy.

你需要耗费大量的能量，

But if you've got a lot of sustainable energy from wind and solar,

但如果你有大量的可持续能源， 比如风能和太阳能，

you can actually sequester carbon.

你就可以实现固碳。

So you can reverse the CO2 parts per million of the atmosphere and oceans.

这样就可以逆转二氧化碳 在大气与海洋中的含量，

And also you can really have as much fresh water as you want.

而且这样的话你想要多少淡水都可以。

Earth is mostly water.

地球的大部分都是水，

We should call Earth “Water.”

我们应该叫它“水球”。

It's 70 percent water by surface area.

它 70% 的表面被水覆盖，

Now most of that’s seawater,

目前来说大部分是海水，

but it's like we just happen to be on the bit that's land.

但就好像我们刚好在陆地的这一边。

CA: And with energy, you can turn seawater into --

安德森：有了这些能量就可以把海水变成——

EM: Yes.

马斯克：没错。

CA: Irrigating water or whatever water you need.

安德森：灌溉用水或者任何你需要的水。

EM: At very low cost.

马斯克：而且成本很低，

Things will be good.

效果也不错。

CA: Things will be good.

安德森：效果也不错。

And also, there's other benefits to this non-fossil fuel world

而且使用非化石燃料的世界还有别的好处，

where the air is cleaner --

那样世界的空气会更清新。

EM: Yes, exactly.

马斯克：对，没错。

Because, like, when you burn fossil fuels,

因为当你使用化石燃料时，

there's all these side reactions

会产生很多不好的影响，

and toxic gases of various kinds.

并且产生各种各样的有毒气体，

And sort of little particulates that are bad for your lungs.

还有一些对肺部有害的微粒。

Like, there's all sorts of bad things that are happening

现在这些不好的东西，

that will go away.

以后都会消失。

And the sky will be cleaner and quieter.

天空会更干净，更安静。

The future's going to be good.

未来会更美好。

CA: I want us to switch now to think a bit about artificial intelligence.

安德森：我现在想转到人工智能的话题，

But the segue there,

不过为了让过渡自然一点，我想说，

you mentioned how annoying it is when people call you up

你提到别人在责备你时很烦人，

for bad predictions in the past.

他们会责备你在过去错误的预测，

So I'm possibly going to be annoying now,

所以我现在可能会让你有点生气。

but I’m curious about your timelines and how you predict

但我很好奇你之后的时间规划、对未来的预测，

and how come some things are so amazingly on the money and some aren't.

以及为什么你在一些金钱上的预测如此准确， 而有些则不然，

So when it comes to predicting sales of Tesla vehicles, for example,

例如当你在预测特斯拉汽车的销售量时，

you've kind of been amazing,

你一直都准确的惊人，

I think in 2014 when Tesla had sold that year 60,000 cars,

我记得在 2014 年， 特斯拉一年售出了 6 万辆汽车。

you said, "2020, I think we will do half a million a year."

你说：“我认为我们将在 2020 年生产 50 万辆。”

EM: Yeah, we did almost exactly a half million.

马斯克：是的，我们几乎正好生产了 50 万辆。

CA: You did almost exactly half a million.

安德森：你们几乎正好生产了 50 万辆。

You were scoffed in 2014 because no one since Henry Ford,

2014 年时你被嘲笑了，因为自亨利·福特之后，

with the Model T, had come close to that kind of growth rate for cars.

除了他旗下的T型车， 没有人可以接近这样的汽车生产增长率，

You were scoffed, and you actually hit 500,000 cars

你被嘲笑了，而特斯拉实际上 真的生产了 50 万还是 51 万辆车。

and then 510,000 or whatever produced.

But five years ago, last time you came to TED,

但是 5 年前，也就是你上次来 TED 时，

I asked you about full self-driving,

我向你询问了关于全自动驾驶的问题。

and you said, “Yeah, this very year,

你说：没错，就是今年

I'm confident that we will have a car going from LA to New York

我相信特斯拉将使一辆汽车从洛杉矶开往纽约，

without any intervention."

但全程不受任何干扰。

EM: Yeah, I don't want to blow your mind, but I'm not always right.

马斯克：是的，我不想让你惊讶， 但我并非总是对的

CA: (Laughs)

安德森：（笑声）

What's the difference between those two?

那么这两者之间有什么区别呢？

Why has full self-driving in particular been so hard to predict?

为什么全自动驾驶这件事情会特别难以预测？

EM: I mean, the thing that really got me,

马斯克：我想有件事情让我明白了，

and I think it's going to get a lot of other people,

我想许多人也会明白，

is that there are just so many false dawns with self-driving,

自动驾驶领域有很多胜利的曙光并不真实，

where you think you've got the problem,

你以为你解决了这个问题，

have a handle on the problem,

掌握了解决的关键，

and then it, no, turns out you just hit a ceiling.

然而并没有，实际上你只是碰上了瓶颈。

Because if you were to plot the progress,

因为如果你把进展绘制成统计图，

the progress looks like a log curve.

你会发现它看起来就像一条对数曲线，

So it's like a series of log curves.

一系列的对数曲线，

So most people don't know what a log curve is, I suppose.

不过我想大多数人并不知道对数曲线是什么。

CA: Show the shape with your hands.

安德森：用手来展示一下它的样子吧。

EM: It goes up you know, sort of a fairly straight way,

马斯克：对数曲线以一种几乎垂直的方式上升，

and then it starts tailing off

之后开始递减，

and you start getting diminishing returns.

你的收益越来越少。

And you're like, uh oh,

而你会说，噢，

it was trending up and now it's sort of, curving over

它之前不断向上，现在只是有点下降，

and you start getting to these, what I call local maxima,

然后你就会遇到我称为局部最大值的问题，

where you don't realize basically how dumb you were.

在这种情况下你认识不到自己有多么蠢。

And then it happens again.

然后这种情况将再次发生，

And ultimately...

直到最后……

These things, you know, in retrospect, they seem obvious,

当这种问题似乎愈发明显，

but in order to solve full self-driving properly,

但为了正确处理全自动驾驶的问题，

you actually have to solve real-world AI.

你就不得不先解决现实世界中的人工智能问题，

Because what are the road networks designed to work with?

在设计时，公路网需要什么才能运行？

They're designed to work with a biological neural net, our brains,

它们需要生物神经网络，也就是我们的大脑，

and with vision, our eyes.

以及视觉，也就是我们的眼睛，

And so in order to make it work with computers,

因此，为了让公路网可以配合计算机运行，

you basically need to solve real-world AI and vision.

你就需要解决现实世界的人工智能 和计算机视觉技术。

Because we need cameras

因为我们需要摄像头

and silicon neural nets

以及硅神经网络，

in order to have self-driving work

从而让自动驾驶

for a system that was designed for eyes and biological neural nets.

适用于原先基于视觉 及生物神经网络设计的系统。

You know, I guess when you put it that way,

如果你这么想的话，

it's sort of, like, quite obvious

很明显，

that the only way to solve full self-driving

解决全自动驾驶的唯一方法

is to solve real world AI and sophisticated vision.

就是解决现实世界的人工智能 以及复杂的视觉技术问题。

CA: What do you feel about the current architecture?

安德森：你对目前的体系架构有什么看法？

Do you think you have an architecture now

你认为你现在有没有一种架构，

where there is a chance

可以有一定的机会，

for the logarithmic curve not to tail off any anytime soon?

使得这一对数曲线不至于很快衰减？

EM: Well I mean, admittedly these may be infamous last words,

马斯克：我承认这可能是一个臭名昭著的遗言，

but I actually am confident that we will solve it this year.

但实际上我相信特斯拉将在今年解决这个问题，

That we will exceed --

这样我们就能超越……

The probability of an accident,

在交通事故率的层面上，

at what point do you exceed that of the average person?

我们何时会低于人类驾驶发生的事故率？

I think we will exceed that this year.

我认为我们将在今年实现这一成就。

CA: What are you seeing behind the scenes that gives you that confidence?

安德森：你在幕后看到了什么让你这般自信？

EM: We’re almost at the point where we have a high-quality

马斯克：我们几乎搭建了一个高质量的 统一的矢量空间，

unified vector space.

In the beginning, we were trying to do this with image recognition

一开始，我们在进行图像识别时，

on individual images.

只是对单个图像进行分析。

But if you get one image out of a video,

但如果你从一个视频中截取一帧图像，

it's actually quite hard to see what's going on without ambiguity.

实际上很难看清发生了什么， 并且容易产生模糊，

But if you look at a video segment of a few seconds of video,

但如果你看一个几秒钟的视频片段，

that ambiguity resolves.

这种模糊就消除了，

So the first thing we had to do is tie all eight cameras together

我们首先要将八台摄像机绑定在一起

so they're synchronized,

使他们实现同步，

so that all the frames are looked at simultaneously

这样所有的画面都可以同时播放，

and labeled simultaneously by one person,

并且同时由一个人进行标记。

because we still need human labeling.

因为我们依然需要人类进行标注，

So at least they’re not labeled at different times by different people

至少它们不会在不同的时间由不同的人，

in different ways.

用不同的方式进行标注，

So it's sort of a surround picture.

这是一种环绕式的图像。

Then a very important part is to add the time dimension.

这一过程中非常重要的部分就是加入时间维度，

So that you’re looking at surround video,

这样你看到的就是环绕式的视频，

and you're labeling surround video.

并对其进行标注，

And this is actually quite difficult to do from a software standpoint.

从软件的角度来看， 这一点实际上是非常困难的。

We had to write our own labeling tools

我们不得不编写我们自己的标注工具，

and then create auto labeling,

之后编写一个自动标注软件，

create auto labeling software to amplify the efficiency of human labelers

从而提升人力标注的效率，

because it’s quite hard to label.

因为标注是相当困难的。

In the beginning, it was taking several hours

最开始的时候，我们需要花费几个小时，

to label a 10-second video clip.

标注一个10秒的视频片段，

This is not scalable.

这样是无法规模化工作的，

So basically what you have to have is you have to have surround video,

所以你必须有环绕式的视频，

and that surround video has to be primarily automatically labeled

而且这个视频必须先由 自动标注程序完成绝大部分工作，

with humans just being editors

而人类作为编辑者

and making slight corrections to the labeling of the video

只需对视频的标注做出些许的修正，

and then feeding back those corrections into the future auto labeler,

然后将这些修正反馈给接下来的自动标注程序，

so you get this flywheel eventually

这样你就可以形成一个高速运转的处理流程，

where the auto labeler is able to take in vast amounts of video

自动标注程序可以处理大量的视频，

and with high accuracy,

同时保证很高的准确率，

automatically label the video for cars, lane lines, drive space.

并自动标注视频中的汽车、车道线以及驾驶空间。

CA: What you’re saying is ...

安德森：你是说……

the result of this is that you're effectively giving the car a 3D model

这样你就可以给汽车提供一个

of the actual objects that are all around it.

车身周围实际物体的3D模型，

It knows what they are,

这样就可以知道这些物体是什么，

and it knows how fast they are moving.

以及他们的移动速度，

And the remaining task is to predict

而剩下的任务就是

what the quirky behaviors are that, you know,

预测那些异常的行为，

that when a pedestrian is walking down the road with a smaller pedestrian,

比如当一个大人带着小孩子过马路时，

that maybe that smaller pedestrian might do something unpredictable

小孩子可能做出一些难以预测的举动，

or things like that.

或者其他类似的情况，

You have to build into it before you can really call it safe.

你必须解决这样的问题才可以保证安全。

EM: You basically need to have memory across time and space.

马斯克：你需要可以记录时空的记忆，

So what I mean by that is ...

我的意思是

Memory can’t be infinite,

记忆不可能是无限的，

because it's using up a lot of the computer's RAM basically.

因为它会占用大量电脑内存，

So you have to say how much are you going to try to remember?

所以你必须知道你打算记住多少内容？

It's very common for things to be occluded.

很多时候东西会被遮挡，

So if you talk about say, a pedestrian walking past a truck

比如当一个行人走过一辆卡车时，

where you saw the pedestrian start on one side of the truck,

你只能看见他从卡车的一端走了过去，

then they're occluded by the truck.

但之后就被卡车挡住了，

You would know intuitively,

你本能地就会知道

OK, that pedestrian is going to pop out the other side, most likely.

那个行人很有可能从卡车另一端出现。

CA: A computer doesn't know it.

安德森：可计算机并不知道。

EM: You need to slow down.

马斯克：而你得慢下来。

CA: A skeptic is going to say that every year for the last five years,

安德森：一个对此持怀疑态度的人会说 在过去五年中的每一年，

you've kind of said, well,

你都会说，没错，

no this is the year,

就是今年，

we're confident that it will be there in a year or two or, you know,

我们相信最近一两年就可以实现目标，

like it's always been about that far away.

似乎目标总是那么远。

But we've got a new architecture now,

但是我们现在有了一个新的架构，

you're seeing enough improvement behind the scenes

你在幕后也看到了足够的技术进步，

to make you not certain, but pretty confident,

这让你虽然并不确定， 但很有信心在今年年底前，

that, by the end of this year,

what in most, not in every city, and every circumstance

尽管并非是在所有城市的所有环境下，

but in many cities and circumstances,

而是在许多的城市和情况下，

basically the car will be able to drive without interventions

特斯拉的汽车将可以在不受干扰的情况下，

safer than a human.

比人类驾驶更加安全。

EM: Yes.

马斯克：没错。

I mean, the car currently drives me around Austin

我的车现在会载着我在德州的奥斯汀，

most of the time with no interventions.

大多数的时候都不需要人工干预，

So it's not like ...

而且我们有超过 10 万人

And we have over 100,000 people

in our full self-driving beta program.

是我们全自动驾驶的用户，

So you can look at the videos that they post online.

你可以在网上看到他们发布的相关视频。

CA: I do.

安德森：没错，我有看。

And some of them are great, and some of them are a little terrifying.

有些视频看起来很棒，但也有些有点可怕，

I mean, occasionally the car seems to veer off

因为汽车偶尔会突然转向

and scare the hell out of people.

把人们吓坏了。

EM: It’s still a beta.

马斯克：它还只是个试验版本。

CA: But you’re behind the scenes, looking at the data,

安德森：但是你会在幕后看到那些数据，

you're seeing enough improvement

你看到了足够的进步，

to believe that a this-year timeline is real.

让你相信今年确实可以实现这个目标。

EM: Yes, that's what it seems like.

马斯克：是的，看起来是这样的，

I mean, we could be here talking again in a year,

一年后我们还可以在这里讨论，

like, well, another year went by, and it didn’t happen.

可能一年过去了，目标依然没有实现，

But I think this is the year.

但我依然认为今年就是实现全自动驾驶的那一年。

CA: And so in general, when people talk about Elon time,

安德森：所以总体而言， 当人们谈到“埃隆时间”，

I mean it sounds like you can't just have a general rule

你似乎没有一个通用的规则，

that if you predict that something will be done in six months,

即如果你预测某件事情可以在 6 个月内完成，

actually what we should imagine is it’s going to be a year

那么实际上我们应该想这个事情可能需要 1 年，

or it’s like two-x or three-x, it depends on the type of prediction.

也就是 2 到 3 倍的时间来完成这件事情 这取决于你所预测的东西，

Some things, I guess, things involving software, AI, whatever,

我想在涉及到软件以及人工智能之类的事情时，

are fundamentally harder to predict than others.

它们从根本上而言就比其他的东西更难预测。

Is there an element

有没有这样的一种因素，

that you actually deliberately make aggressive prediction timelines

你实际上会特意做出一些激进的预测，

to drive people to be ambitious?

从而激发人们的信心？

Without that, nothing gets done?

而如果不这样的话，我们将一事无成？

EM: Well, I generally believe, in terms of internal timelines,

马斯克：我相信一般对于内部的时间规划而言，

that we want to set the most aggressive timeline that we can.

我们希望可以制定最激进的时间规划，

Because there’s sort of like a law of gaseous expansion where,

因为有一个类似于气体膨胀的规律。

for schedules, where whatever time you set,

即对于时间规划而言， 不论你设定的时间是什么，

it's not going to be less than that.

你实际花费的时间一定会超过设定值，

It's very rare that it'll be less than that.

你很少可以提前完成，

But as far as our predictions are concerned,

但是对于我们的预测来说，

what tends to happen in the media

媒体会有一种倾向，

is that they will report all the wrong ones

他们会去报道所有错误的预测，

and ignore all the right ones.

而对正确的预测视而不见，

Or, you know, when writing an article about me --

或者在写关于我的文章时，

I've had a long career in multiple industries.

我在很多行业工作了很长的时间，

If you list my sins, I sound like the worst person on Earth.

如果你列出我所有犯过的错， 那么我听起来就是世界上最坏的人，

But if you put those against the things I've done right,

但当你把那些事情和我做对的事情放在一起比较，

it makes much more sense, you know?

这一切就变得合理了。

So essentially like, the longer you do anything,

本质上来说，你做一件事情越久，

the more mistakes that you will make cumulatively.

你积累的错误就会越多，

Which, if you sum up those mistakes,

如果你把那些错误加起来，

will sound like I'm the worst predictor ever.

那么我听起来就是史上最差的预测者，

But for example, for Tesla vehicle growth,

比如对于特斯拉汽车的增长值。

I said I think we’d do 50 percent, and we’ve done 80 percent.

我说我认为我们会实现 50% 的增长， 但实际上我们增长了 80% 。

CA: Yes.

安德森：是的。

EM: But they don't mention that one.

马斯克：但媒体不会提到这些东西，

So, I mean, I'm not sure what my exact track record is on predictions.

所以我并不确定我在预测方面具体做的如何，

They're more optimistic than pessimistic, but they're not all optimistic.

我的预测中乐观多于悲观， 但并非全都是乐观的预测，

Some of them are exceeded probably more or later,

这些预测中一些或多或少地超出了预测期限，

but they do come true.

但确实都实现了。

It's very rare that they do not come true.

我的预测很少出现没有实现的情况，

It's sort of like, you know,

就比如说，

if there's some radical technology prediction,

如果有一些激进的技术方面的预测，

the point is not that it was a few years late,

重点并不是技术的实现比预期晚了几年，

but that it happened at all.

而是它的的确确发生了，

That's the more important part.

这才是更重要的地方。

CA: So it feels like at some point in the last year,

安德森：似乎在去年的某个时候，

seeing the progress on understanding,

当人们看到

the Tesla AI understanding the world around it,

特斯拉人工智能对周围世界的理解能力的进步，

led to a kind of, an aha moment at Tesla.

人们对于特斯拉所做的事情恍然大悟，

Because you really surprised people recently when you said

因为你们最近做的事情确实让人大吃一惊。

probably the most important product development

当你说今年特斯拉最重要的产品研发 很可能就是这个机器人“擎天柱”。

going on at Tesla this year is this robot, Optimus.

EM: Yes.

马斯克：是的。

CA: Many companies out there have tried to put out these robots,

安德森：许多公司都试图推出机器人，

they've been working on them for years.

他们为此研究了很多年，

And so far no one has really cracked it.

而目前为止还没有人真正可以搞定这项技术，

There's no mass adoption robot in people's homes.

家用机器人还没有被大规模采用，

There are some in manufacturing, but I would say,

一些制造产业采用了机器人 但我想说的是

no one's kind of, really cracked it.

还没有人能够真正解决机器人这个技术。

Is it something that happened

是不是在全自动驾驶的研发过程中 发生了什么，让你有自信说，

in the development of full self-driving that gave you the confidence to say,

"You know what, we could do something special here."

“我们可以在这个领域做出一些特别的事情。”

EM: Yeah, exactly.

马斯克：是的，没错。

So, you know, it took me a while to sort of realize

我花了不少时间才意识到

that in order to solve self-driving,

为了解决自动驾驶问题，

you really needed to solve real-world AI.

你真的需要解决现实世界的人工智能技术，

And at the point of which you solve real-world AI for a car,

只有当你在汽车上 实现了现实世界的人工智能技术，

which is really a robot on four wheels,

也就是真正做出了一个四轮机器人，

you can then generalize that to a robot on legs as well.

你才可以把这项技术应用到有腿的机器人身上，

The two hard parts I think --

我认为这个过程中有两个难点——

like obviously companies like Boston Dynamics

之前像波士顿动力这样的公司

have shown that it's possible to make quite compelling,

已经证明人类可以制造出相当引人注目， 有时却又有些令人担忧的机器人。

sometimes alarming robots.

CA: Right.

安德森：没错。

EM: You know, so from a sensors and actuators standpoint,

马斯克：从传感器和执行器的角度来说，

it's certainly been demonstrated by many

许多案例已经证明

that it's possible to make a humanoid robot.

我们可以做出一个人形机器人。

The things that are currently missing are enough intelligence

目前的不足之处就是机器人缺乏足够的智能

for the robot to navigate the real world and do useful things

应对现实世界， 并在无明确指示的前提下做有用的事情，

without being explicitly instructed.

So the missing things are basically real-world intelligence

所以目前我们需要的就是现实世界的人工智能，

and scaling up manufacturing.

以及扩大制造业生产规模。

Those are two things that Tesla is very good at.

而这两件事正是特斯拉所擅长的，

And so then we basically just need to design the specialized actuators

所以我们需要的就只是设计出

and sensors that are needed for humanoid robot.

人形机器人需要的执行器和传感器，

People have no idea, this is going to be bigger than the car.

人们并不知道这件事情比汽车项目更为庞大。

CA: So let's dig into exactly that.

安德森：那我们不妨深入探究一下这个问题。

I mean, in one way, it's actually an easier problem than full self-driving

在某种程度上， 这个项目比全自动驾驶更容易做。

because instead of an object going along at 60 miles an hour,

因为这不是一个时速 60 英里的物体，

which if it gets it wrong, someone will die.

一旦出了差错就会造成人员伤亡，

This is an object that's engineered to only go at what,

这个东西在设计出来后，

three or four or five miles an hour.

只能以每小时 3 到 4 或者 5 英里的速度移动。

And so a mistake, there aren't lives at stake.

因此即使机器人出现故障， 也不会有人受到伤害，

There might be embarrassment at stake.

只会造成一些尴尬。

EM: So long as the AI doesn't take it over and murder us in our sleep or something.

马斯克：只要人工智能不会在我们睡觉 或者在其他时间主动行动谋杀我们就可以。

CA: Right.

安德森：没错。

(Laughter)

(笑声)

So talk about --

说到这里——

I think the first applications you've mentioned

我记得你提到这个技术的第一个应用

are probably going to be manufacturing,

很可能是用于制造业，

but eventually the vision is to have these available for people at home.

但它最终是要人们在家里也可以使用机器人，

If you had a robot that really understood the 3D architecture of your house

如果你有一个真正了解 你的房子的三维结构的机器人，

and knew where every object in that house was

并且知道房间内的所有物品的位置

or was supposed to be,

或者知道这些物品原本该放在哪里，

and could recognize all those objects,

并且可以识别出所有的物品。

I mean, that’s kind of amazing, isn’t it?

这很神奇，不是吗？

Like the kind of thing that you could ask a robot to do

那么你可以让机器人做哪些事情？

would be what?

Like, tidy up?

比如说，打扫卫生？

EM: Yeah, absolutely.

马斯克：当然。

Make dinner, I guess, mow the lawn.

比如做晚饭，修剪草坪。

CA: Take a cup of tea to grandma and show her family pictures.

安德森：给祖母端一杯茶，给她看一看家庭合照。

EM: Exactly. Take care of my grandmother and make sure --

马斯克：没错，照顾我的祖母，并确保——

CA: It could obviously recognize everyone in the home.

安德森：它显然可以识别家中的每一个人，

It could play catch with your kids.

和你的孩子玩躲猫猫。

EM: Yes. I mean, obviously, we need to be careful

马斯克：是的，不过我们需要注意

this doesn't become a dystopian situation.

不要让这一切变成 反乌托邦式社会里的可怕场景，

I think one of the things that's going to be important

我认为有一件很重要的事情，

is to have a localized ROM chip on the robot

那就是保证机器人只能使用本地的ROM芯片，

that cannot be updated over the air.

不能使其可以通过无线方式更新。

Where if you, for example, were to say, “Stop, stop, stop,”

比如，当你说：“停，停，停”，

if anyone said that,

或者只要任何人说出这句话，

then the robot would stop, you know, type of thing.

那这个机器人就该停下来 其他情况也是如此，

And that's not updatable remotely.

这种功能不可以通过远程更新改变。

I think it's going to be important to have safety features like that.

我认为这样的安全功能尤为重要。

CA: Yeah, that sounds wise.

安德森：是的，这个点子很明智。

EM: And I do think there should be a regulatory agency for AI.

马斯克：我认为应该 有一个人工智能的监管机构，

I've said that for many years.

我已经这样说了很多年了，

I don't love being regulated,

我也并不喜欢被监管，

but I think this is an important thing for public safety.

但我认为这对安全十分重要。

CA: Let's come back to that.

安德森：让我们再谈谈这个问题，

But I don't think many people have really sort of taken seriously

但我觉得许多人都没有认真对待这个事情，

the notion of, you know, a robot at home.

正如你所说的，对于家庭机器人这个事情。

I mean, at the start of the computing revolution,

在计算机革命开始，

Bill Gates said there's going to be a computer in every home.

比尔盖茨说每个家庭都会有一台电脑，

And people at the time said, yeah, whatever, who would even want that.

但当时的人们说，谁会用这种玩意儿。

Do you think there will be basically like in, say, 2050 or whatever,

你认为到 2050 年之后，或者任何时候，

like a robot in most homes, is what there will be,

大多数的家庭会配备机器人吗？

and people will love them and count on them?

而且人们会喜欢并且依赖这些机器人？

You’ll have your own butler basically.

这样你就有了自己的管家。

EM: Yeah, you'll have your sort of buddy robot probably, yeah.

马斯克：你会有你的机器人伙伴。

CA: I mean, how much of a buddy?

安德森：多大程度上的伙伴？

How many applications have you thought,

你认为会有多少种应用形式呢？

you know, can you have a romantic partner, a sex partner?

你可以有一个恋人，性伴？

EM: It's probably inevitable.

马斯克：这个趋势恐怕不可避免，

I mean, I did promise the internet that I’d make catgirls.

我确实向网民承诺过我会生产猫女郎，

We could make a robot catgirl.

我们可以生产机器人猫女郎。

CA: Be careful what you promise the internet.

安德森：你对网民 做出承诺的时候还是小心为妙。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

EM: So, yeah, I guess it'll be whatever people want really, you know.

马斯克：我想人们可以有各种各样的机器人。

CA: What sort of timeline should we be thinking about

安德森：我们什么时候可以等来，

of the first models that are actually made and sold?

第一批真正生产和销的机器人？

EM: Well, you know, the first units that we intend to make

马斯克：我们打算制造的第一批机器人

are for jobs that are dangerous, boring, repetitive,

是为了从事危险的、无聊的、重复的工作，

and things that people don't want to do.

这些都是人们不愿意做的事情。

And, you know, I think we’ll have like an interesting prototype

我们会做出一个有趣的原型，

sometime this year.

We might have something useful next year,

可能在明年我们就能做出一些有用的产品，

but I think quite likely within at least two years.

但我想很可能至少两年之内，

And then we'll see rapid growth year over year

我们就会看到 人形机器人的实用性将连年递增，

of the usefulness of the humanoid robots

and decrease in cost and scaling up production.

并且成本降低、生产规模扩大。

CA: Initially just selling to businesses,

安德森：最初这些机器人只向企业销售，

or when do you picture you'll start selling them

你认为什么时候你可以向普通人销售，

where you can buy your parents one for Christmas or something?

这样你就可以给你的父母或者在其他节日 买一个机器人作礼物？

EM: I'd say in less than ten years.

马斯克：我想应该用不了十年的时间。

CA: Help me on the economics of this.

安德森：请帮我分析一下这其中的经济问题，

So what do you picture the cost of one of these being?

你认为这些机器人的造价会是多少？

EM: Well, I think the cost is actually not going to be crazy high.

马斯克：我想应该不会特别高，

Like less than a car.

可能会比一辆车的造价还低，

Initially, things will be expensive because it'll be a new technology

刚开始的时候我想可能会比较昂贵， 因为这是一项新的技术，

at low production volume.

产量也很低，

The complexity and cost of a car is greater than that of a humanoid robot.

而汽车的复杂程度 以及造价都比人形机器人的高，

So I would expect that it's going to be less than a car,

所以我预计机器人的造价会比汽车更低，

or at least equivalent to a cheap car.

或者至少与一辆廉价车相当，

CA: So even if it starts at 50k, within a few years,

安德森：所以即使最初它会花费 5 万美元， 但是几年后，

it’s down to 20k or lower or whatever.

它就会降到 2 万甚至更低的价格，

And maybe for home they'll get much cheaper still.

家用型机器人甚至有可能更便宜，

But think about the economics of this.

但是关于这其中的经济问题，

If you can replace a $30,000,

如果你可以替代掉一名年薪 3 万美元，

$40,000-a-year worker,

或者 4 万美元的工人，

which you have to pay every year,

而且你必须每年都支付他们工资，

with a one-time payment of $25,000

而现在只要一次性支付 2 万 5 千美元，

for a robot that can work longer hours,

就可以买到一个可以工作更久的机器人。

a pretty rapid replacement of certain types of jobs.

许多类型的工作都会被迅速取代，

How worried should the world be about that?

那么全世界对此应该展现出何等的担忧？

EM: I wouldn't worry about the sort of, putting people out of a job thing.

马斯克：我不会担心这种人们失去工作的事情，

I think we're actually going to have, and already do have,

我认为我们会有而且实际上已经面临着

a massive shortage of labor.

大规模的劳动力短缺的问题。

So I think we will have ...

所以我认为我们会……

Not people out of work,

人们并不会找不到工作，

but actually still a shortage labor even in the future.

因为即使是在未来也会面临劳动力短缺的问题，

But this really will be a world of abundance.

但这确实会让世界的资源丰富起来，

Any goods and services will be available to anyone who wants them.

每个人都可以享受任何商品和服务，

It'll be so cheap to have goods and services, it will be ridiculous.

商品和服务将 会变得十分廉价，便宜到荒谬的程度。

CA: I'm presuming it should be possible to imagine a bunch of goods and services

安德森：我想现在很多难以盈利的商品和服务

that can't profitably be made now but could be made in that world,

在那样的世界中，

courtesy of legions of robots.

都可以借助大量的机器人来实现。

EM: Yeah.

马斯克：是的。

It will be a world of abundance.

这样的世界资源富足

The only scarcity that will exist in the future

在未来唯一可能缺少的东西，

is that which we decide to create ourselves as humans.

可能就是我们作为人类自己创造的东西。

CA: OK.

安德森：好的。

So AI is allowing us to imagine a differently powered economy

所以人工智能让我们 可以用一种不同的方式发展经济，

that will create this abundance.

并以此创造大量的资源，

What are you most worried about going wrong?

对此，你最担心它会在什么地方上出错？

EM: Well, like I said, AI and robotics will bring out

马斯克：正如我所说，人工智能和机器人

what might be termed the age of abundance.

将为我们带来所谓的“富足的时代”，

Other people have used this word,

其他人也用过这个词。

and that this is my prediction:

我的预言是：

it will be an age of abundance for everyone.

这将是一个人人都会生活富足的时代，

But I guess there’s ...

但我想

The dangers would be the artificial general intelligence

危险会来自于强人工智能，

or digital superintelligence decouples from a collective human will

以及数字超级智能与人类意志脱钩，

and goes in the direction that for some reason we don't like.

并且由于某种原因向我们讨厌的方向发展。

Whatever direction it might go.

不论它朝什么方向发展，

You know, that’s sort of the idea behind Neuralink,

Neuralink项目就是为了解决这个问题，

is to try to more tightly couple collective human world

即尝试着将人类世界更紧密地

to digital superintelligence.

与数字超级智能结合起来。

And also along the way solve a lot of brain injuries and spinal injuries

在这一过程中解决许多脑损伤、脊柱损伤

and that kind of thing.

以及其他相关的问题，

So even if it doesn't succeed in the greater goal,

因此即使这个更大的目标没有实现，

I think it will succeed in the goal of alleviating brain and spine damage.

我认为它也可以成功实现 减轻大脑、脊椎损伤这一目标。

CA: So the spirit there is that if we're going to make these AIs

安德森：所以这个项目的理念就是 如果我们要打造这些高智慧的人工智能，

that are so vastly intelligent, we ought to be wired directly to them

那么我们就应该直接与它们相连，

so that we ourselves can have those superpowers more directly.

这样我们就可以直接拥有这些超能力，

But that doesn't seem to avoid the risk that those superpowers might ...

但这似乎并不能避免这些超能力的风险，

turn ugly in unintended ways.

并且会以意想不到的方式恶化。

EM: I think it's a risk, I agree.

马斯克：同意，我觉得这是一个风险。

I'm not saying that I have some certain answer to that risk.

我并不是说我对于 这种风险已经有了确定的答案，

I’m just saying like

我只是说，

maybe one of the things that would be good

也许有一件我们可以做的事情，

for ensuring that the future is one that we want

可以确保我们有一个想要的未来，

is to more tightly couple

那就是更加紧密地

the collective human world to digital intelligence.

将人类世界与数字智能结合起来。

The issue that we face here is that we are already a cyborg,

我们面对的问题是： 我们已经是一个半机械人了，

if you think about it.

你想一想

The computers are an extension of ourselves.

计算机就是我们自身的延伸，

And when we die, we have, like, a digital ghost.

我们死后，我们有一个数字化的幽灵，

You know, all of our text messages and social media, emails.

也就是我们所有的短信、社交媒体、电子邮件。

And it's quite eerie actually,

这实际上很可怕，

when someone dies but everything online is still there.

当一个人死后， 你网上的一切东西都还留着，

But you say like, what's the limitation?

但你说它的限制是什么？

What is it that inhibits a human-machine symbiosis?

是什么抑制了人机共生？

It's the data rate.

是数据速率。

When you communicate, especially with a phone,

当你在进行交流时，特别是在使用电话时，

you're moving your thumbs very slowly.

你的拇指动起来很慢，

So you're like moving your two little meat sticks

你就像在移动你的两根小肉棒，

at a rate that’s maybe 10 bits per second, optimistically, 100 bits per second.

速率可能是每秒 10 比特， 乐观地说，是每秒 100 比特，

And computers are communicating at the gigabyte level and beyond.

而计算机则以十亿字节 甚至更高的速度进行通信。

CA: Have you seen evidence that the technology is actually working,

安德森：你有没有这种技术正在发挥作用的证据，

that you've got a richer, sort of, higher bandwidth connection, if you like,

使你获得了更多的更高带宽的连接，

between like external electronics and a brain

从而使得大脑与外部电子设备的连接，

than has been possible before?

比以前具有更大的可能性？

EM: Yeah.

马斯克：有的。

I mean, the fundamental principles of reading neurons,

读取神经元的基本原理，

sort of doing read-write on neurons with tiny electrodes,

用微小的电极对神经元进行读写，

have been demonstrated for decades.

几十年前就已经证实可行，

So it's not like the concept is new.

所以这并不是什么新概念，

The problem is that there is no product that works well

可问题是没有一种产品可以取得很好的效果，

that you can go and buy.

你根本购买不到好的产品，

So it's all sort of, in research labs.

这些都是在实验室里才能实现，

And it's like some cords sticking out of your head.

一些电线连在你的头上。

And it's quite gruesome, and it's really ...

这很可怕，而且真的……

There's no good product that actually does a good job

没有一款运行效果不错，

and is high-bandwidth and safe

同时带宽还高，使用安全，

and something actually that you could buy and would want to buy.

你可以买的并且想买的产品，

But the way to think of the Neuralink device

但对于Neuralink设备的看待方式，

is kind of like a Fitbit or an Apple Watch.

有点像Fitbit或苹果手表，

That's where we take out sort of a small section of skull

我们会取下一小块头骨，

about the size of a quarter,

大概是25美分硬币的大小，

replace that with what,

之后用这个设备代替这块头骨，

in many ways really is very much like a Fitbit, Apple Watch

在很多方面，这个设备都很像Fitbit和苹果手表，

or some kind of smart watch thing.

或者其他智能手表之类的设备，

But with tiny, tiny wires,

但是是用很细很细的电线，

very, very tiny wires.

非常非常细小的电线。

Wires so tiny, it’s hard to even see them.

电线真的很细小，你甚至很难看到它们，

And it's very important to have very tiny wires

这种细线非常重要，

so that when they’re implanted, they don’t damage the brain.

这样当它们被植入时就不会对大脑造成损伤。

CA: How far are you from putting these into humans?

安德森：你们还需要多久可以把它植入人体？

EM: Well, we have put in our FDA application

马斯克：我们已经 向食品与药品管理署提交了申请，

to aspirationally do the first human implant this year.

我们非常希望今年进行第一次人体植入手术。

CA: The first uses will be for neurological injuries

安德森：第一个用途是修复不同程度的脑损伤，

of different kinds.

But rolling the clock forward

让我们展望一下未来，

and imagining when people are actually using these

想象一下人们会在什么时候使用这些设备，

for their own enhancement, let's say,

来提升他们自己，

and for the enhancement of the world,

让世界进步，

how clear are you in your mind

对于这个事情，

as to what it will feel like to have one of these inside your head?

当你的脑袋中有这样的东西会有什么感觉呢？

EM: Well, I do want to emphasize we're at an early stage.

马斯克：我想强调的是我们目前还在早期阶段，

And so it really will be many years before we have

所以我们真的还需要很多年

anything approximating a high-bandwidth neural interface

才能做出类似于高带宽脑机接口的设备，

that allows for AI-human symbiosis.

从而实现人工智能与人类共生，

For many years, we will just be solving brain injuries and spinal injuries.

我们会花很多年 来研究脑损伤和脊髓损伤的问题。

For probably a decade.

大概十年吧，

This is not something that will suddenly one day

并不会突然在某一天，

it will have this incredible sort of whole brain interface.

这种无比神奇的脑机接口就会突然出现，

It's going to be, like I said,

就像我说的

at least a decade of really just solving brain injuries

我们至少要花十年的时间来解决

and spinal injuries.

脑损伤和脊柱损伤的问题。

And really, I think you can solve a very wide range of brain injuries,

我认为可以解决很多种类的脑损伤，

including severe depression, morbid obesity, sleep,

包括重度抑郁、肥胖症、一些睡眠问题，

potentially schizophrenia,

潜在的精神分裂症，

like, a lot of things that cause great stress to people.

以及很多对人造成巨大压力的病症，

Restoring memory in older people.

还可以恢复老年人的记忆。

CA: If you can pull that off, that's the app I will sign up for.

安德森：如果你能做出这个东西， 我就会注册这个应用。

EM: Absolutely.

马斯克：当然。

CA: Please hurry. (Laughs)

安德森：请尽快。 （笑声）

EM: I mean, the emails that we get at Neuralink are heartbreaking.

马斯克：Neuralink项目收到的邮件令人心碎，

I mean, they'll send us just tragic, you know,

人们会发来凄惨的故事，

where someone was sort of, in the prime of life

有人正值壮年之际，

and they had an accident on a motorcycle

却不幸在骑摩托车时发生了车祸，

and someone who's 25, you know, can't even feed themselves.

有一个25岁的人甚至不能养活自己，

And this is something we could fix.

我们可以解决这样的问题。

CA: But you have said that AI is one of the things you're most worried about

安德森：但你曾说 人工智能是你最担心的事情之一，

and that Neuralink may be one of the ways

Nuralink项目可能是解决这个问题的一条出路，

where we can keep abreast of it.

从而使我们可以跟上人工智能发展的步伐。

EM: Yeah, there's the short-term thing,

马斯克：是的，短期来看，

which I think is helpful on an individual human level with injuries.

我认为这个项目有助于受伤的人类个体恢复，

And then the long-term thing is an attempt

而从长期来看，

to address the civilizational risk of AI

它会尝试着解决人工智能带给人类文明的风险，

by bringing digital intelligence

即通过将数字智能，

and biological intelligence closer together.

与生物智能更紧密地结合在一起。

I mean, if you think of how the brain works today,

你想一想现今大脑的工作机制，

there are really two layers to the brain.

大脑实际上有两层，

There's the limbic system and the cortex.

即大脑边缘系统和大脑皮层。

You've got the kind of, animal brain where --

你有一种动物的大脑，

it’s kind of like the fun part, really.

这个东西真的很有意思。

CA: It's where most of Twitter operates, by the way.

安德森：顺便说一句， 这里也是产出推文的地方，

EM: I think Tim Urban said,

马斯克：我记得Tim Urban说，

we’re like somebody, you know, stuck a computer on a monkey.

我们人类就像把电脑塞到了猴子身上，

You know, so we're like, if you gave a monkey a computer,

所以我们就像……如果你给猴子一台电脑，

that's our cortex.

这个电脑就是我们的大脑皮层，

But we still have a lot of monkey instincts.

但我们依然还有许多猴子的本能，

Which we then try to rationalize as, no, it's not a monkey instinct.

我们会试着把一些行为合理化 否认这不是猴子的本能，

It’s something more important than that.

而是比它更重要的事情，

But it's often just really a monkey instinct.

但这常常真的是猴子的本能举动。

We're just monkeys with a computer stuck in our brain.

我们只是脑子里装着电脑的猴子，

But even though the cortex is sort of the smart,

即使大脑皮层是 大脑中聪明或者说是智能的部分，

or the intelligent part of the brain,

the thinking part of the brain,

是大脑中思考的区域，

I've not yet met anyone who wants to delete their limbic system

我还没有见过 有人想要去掉他们的大脑边缘系统，

or their cortex.

或者是他们的大脑皮层。

They're quite happy having both.

他们对于同时拥有两者都非常满意，

Everyone wants both parts of their brain.

每个人都想要大脑中的两个部分，

And people really want their phones and their computers,

人们真的想要他们的手机和电脑，

which are really the tertiary, the third part of your intelligence.

而这实际上是你智力的第三部分。

It's just that it's ...

它就是……

Like the bandwidth,

就像宽带，

the rate of communication with that tertiary layer is slow.

与第三层的通信速率很慢，

And it's just a very tiny straw to this tertiary layer.

这只是第三层的一根细小的管子，

And we want to make that tiny straw a big highway.

我们想把这个小管子变成一条大公路，

And I’m definitely not saying that this is going to solve everything.

我绝不是说这会解决所有的问题，

Or this is you know, it’s the only thing --

或者说这是唯一的……

it’s something that might be helpful.

这个东西可能会有所帮助，

And worst-case scenario,

在最坏的情况下，

I think we solve some important brain injury,

我想我们解决了一些重要的脑损伤问题，

spinal injury issues, and that's still a great outcome.

脊椎损伤问题，那么这依然是一个很好的结果。

CA: Best-case scenario,

安德森：在最好的情况下，

we may discover new human possibility, telepathy,

我们可能发现 人类发展新的可能性，实现心灵感应。

you've spoken of, in a way, a connection with a loved one, you know,

你说过，从某种程度上，和你所爱之人相连，

full memory and much faster thought processing maybe.

拥有全部的记忆和更快的思维处理，

All these things.

这一切的一切，

It's very cool.

都很酷。

If AI were to take down Earth, we need a plan B.

如果人工智能要摧毁地球， 我们需要一个备用计划。

Let's shift our attention to space.

让我们把注意力转移到太空。

We spoke last time at TED about reusability,

上次在TED我们谈到了可复用性，

and you had just demonstrated that spectacularly for the first time.

而你也已经首次展示了这壮观的一幕。

Since then, you've gone on to build this monster rocket, Starship,

从那之后，你继续打造这个巨大的火箭——星舰，

which kind of changes the rules of the game in spectacular ways.

这极大改变了这个领域的游戏规则，

Tell us about Starship.

和我们讲一讲星舰吧。

EM: Starship is extremely fundamental.

马斯克：星舰非常重要，

So the holy grail of rocketry or space transport

在太空运输中人们一直在追求的

is full and rapid reusability.

就是快速及完全可复用性，

This has never been achieved.

这从来都没有实现过。

The closest that anything has come is our Falcon 9 rocket,

最接近这一目标的是我们的猎鹰9号火箭，

where we are able to recover the first stage, the boost stage,

我们可以回收第一级推进火箭，

which is probably about 60 percent of the cost of the vehicle

大概是航天器成本的60%，

of the whole launch, maybe 70 percent.

对于整个发射过程的成本占到大约70%。

And we've now done that over a hundred times.

我们已经成功实现了一百多次，

So with Starship, we will be recovering the entire thing.

所以有了星舰我们就能回收整个火箭，

Or at least that's the goal.

至少这是我们的目标。

CA: Right.

安德森：是的。

EM: And moreover, recovering it in such a way

马斯克：此外这样的回收方式

that it can be immediately re-flown.

可以使星舰可以立刻重新飞行，

Whereas with Falcon 9, we still need to do some amount of refurbishment

但是对于猎鹰9号，我们仍然需要做一些

to the booster and to the fairing nose cone.

对于助推器和整流罩的翻新。

But with Starship, the design goal is immediate re-flight.

但是星舰的设计目标 就是使其可以直接重新飞行，

So you just refill propellants and go again.

所以你只需要补充推进剂就可以出发了，

And this is gigantic.

这点很重要。

Just as it would be in any other mode of transport.

因为它可以用于任何其他交通工具。

CA: And the main design

安德森：它的主要设计

is to basically take 100 plus people at a time,

是每次装载100多人，

plus a bunch of things that they need, to Mars.

以及他们需要的东西前往火星，

So, first of all, talk about that piece.

所以，首先，关于这一部分

What is your latest timeline?

你最新的规划是什么？

One, for the first time, a Starship goes to Mars,

第一次，星舰首次飞往火星，

presumably without people, but just equipment.

大概只携带设备但不载人。

Two, with people.

第二次，载人。

Three, there’s sort of,

第三次，

OK, 100 people at a time, let's go.

每次装载100人，咱们出发吧。

EM: Sure.

马斯克：是的。

And just to put the cost thing into perspective,

仅从成本的角度来看

the expected cost of Starship,

星舰的预计成本，

putting 100 tons into orbit,

将100吨的物体送入轨道

is significantly less than what it would have cost

比现在的成本，

or what it did cost to put our tiny Falcon 1 rocket into orbit.

或者和我们把小型猎鹰1号 入轨道的成本低很多，

Just as the cost of flying a 747 around the world

就像坐波音747环游世界的成本

is less than the cost of a small airplane.

会比坐一架小飞机的成本更低。

You know, a small airplane that was thrown away.

我是说，一架废弃的小型飞机，

So it's really pretty mind-boggling that the giant thing costs less,

所以巨大的东西 反而花费更少这件事确实难以置信，

way less than the small thing.

它比小的东西花费少很多，

So it doesn't use exotic propellants

星舰不会使用特殊的推进剂，

or things that are difficult to obtain on Mars.

或者是在火星上难以获得的燃料。

It uses methane as fuel,

它使用甲烷作为燃料，

and it's primarily oxygen, roughly 77-78 percent oxygen by weight.

推进剂中主要是氧， 氧的重量大概占到77%-78%，

And Mars has a CO2 atmosphere and has water ice,

火星有二氧化碳大气层，有水冰，

which is CO2 plus H2O, so you can make CH4, methane,

也就是二氧化碳和水，这样你就可以在火星上

and O2, oxygen, on Mars.

制造甲烷以及氧气。

CA: Presumably, one of the first tasks on Mars will be to create a fuel plant

安德森：在火星上的首要任务 可能就是建立一个燃料工厂，

that can create the fuel for the return trips of many Starships.

这样就可以为许多星舰制造回程的燃料。

EM: Yes.

马斯克：是的，

And actually, it's mostly going to be oxygen plants,

实际上大部分都会是氧气工厂，

because it's 78 percent oxygen, 22 percent fuel.

因为氧气占78%，燃料占22%，

But the fuel is a simple fuel that is easy to create on Mars.

而燃料在火星上很容易制造，

And in many other parts of the solar system.

在太阳系中的其他地方也很容易。

So basically ...

所以基本上……

And it's all propulsive landing, no parachutes,

星舰是反推着陆，没有降落伞，

nothing thrown away.

没有东西会被扔掉，

It has a heat shield that’s capable of entering on Earth or Mars.

它有一个隔热罩使其可以进入地球或火星，

We can even potentially go to Venus.

我们甚至有可能去金星,

but you don't want to go there.

不过你不会想去的。

(Laughs)

（笑声）

Venus is hell, almost literally.

金星真的几乎就是地狱，

But you could ...

但是你可以……

It's a generalized method of transport to anywhere in the solar system,

这个方法通用于太阳系中的所有航行，

because the point at which you have propellant depo on Mars,

因为在火星上有推进剂的存放点，

you can then travel to the asteroid belt

你就可以前往小行星带，

and to the moons of Jupiter and Saturn

以及前往水星和土星的卫星，

and ultimately anywhere in the solar system.

最后就可以到达太阳系的任何地方。

CA: But your main focus

安德森：但是你关注的重点，

and SpaceX's main focus is still Mars.

以及SpaceX项目的重点依然是火星，

That is the mission.

这个是使命所在

That is where most of the effort will go?

是投入最大的地方？

Or are you actually imagining a much broader array of uses

还是你实际上在想象一系列更为广泛的用途，

even in the coming, you know,

甚至是在未来，

the first decade or so of uses of this.

星舰投入运行后的前十年。

Where we could go, for example, to other places

比如说：我们可以去什么地方

in the solar system to explore,

在太阳系中探索，

perhaps NASA wants to use the rocket for that reason.

也许NASA想使用这个火箭就是为了这个目的。

EM: Yeah, NASA is planning to use a Starship to return to the moon,

马斯克：是的， NASA计划使用星舰返回月球，

to return people to the moon.

把人类送回月球，

And so we're very honored that NASA has chosen us to do this.

我们很荣幸NASA选择了我们做这件事，

But I'm saying it is a generalized --

但是我说这是一个通用的……

it’s a general solution

一个通用的方案，

to getting anywhere in the greater solar system.

让我们前往太阳系的任何地方，

It's not suitable for going to another star system,

它并不适合前往其他星系，

but it is a general solution for transport anywhere in the solar system.

但它是太阳系内运输的通用解决方案。

CA: Before it can do any of that,

安德森：在它可以做到这些之前，

it's got to demonstrate it can get into orbit, you know, around Earth.

它必须证明可以进入轨道，绕地飞行，

What’s your latest advice on the timeline for that?

你对这一部分有什么最新的规划？

EM: It's looking promising for us to have an orbital launch attempt

马斯克：我们有希望 可以在几个月后尝试轨道发射，

in a few months.

So we're actually integrating --

我们实际上在整合……

will be integrating the engines into the booster

将引擎整合到助推器中，

for the first orbital flight starting in about a week or two.

之后大约会在一两个星期内 进行首次轨道飞行，

And the launch complex itself is ready to go.

发射场地也已经准备好了，

So assuming we get regulatory approval,

所以如果我们得到了监管部门的批准，

I think we could have an orbital launch attempt within a few months.

我想我们可以在几个月内尝试轨道发射。

CA: And a radical new technology like this

安德森：这样的一项全新的技术，

presumably there is real risk on those early attempts.

在早期尝试时可能存在真正的风险。

EM: Oh, 100 percent, yeah.

马斯克：百分之百，是的，

The joke I make all the time is that excitement is guaranteed.

我经常开玩笑说我们肯定很兴奋，

Success is not guaranteed, but excitement certainly is.

能不能成功就不一定了， 不过兴奋肯定是有的。

CA: But the last I saw on your timeline,

安德森：但是我上次看你的时间规划表时，

you've slightly put back the expected date

你稍稍推迟了你预计的时间，

to put the first human on Mars till 2029, I want to say?

即2029年人类才能登陆火星。

EM: Yeah, I mean, so let's see.

马斯克：是的。

I mean, we have built a production system for Starship,

我们已经为星舰建好了生产系统，

so we're making a lot of ships and boosters.

我们在制作大量的飞船和助推器。

CA: How many are you planning to make actually?

安德森：你实际计划制造多少？

EM: Well, we're currently expecting to make a booster and a ship

马斯克：目前我们打算每一个助推器和一架飞船，

roughly every, well, initially, roughly every couple of months,

最开始大概用时两个月，

and then hopefully by the end of this year, one every month.

希望今年年底可以用时一个月。

So it's giant rockets, and a lot of them.

火箭确实很大，但会生产很多个，

Just talking in terms of rough orders of magnitude,

从数量级来看，

in order to create a self-sustaining city on Mars,

为了在火星上打造一个自给自足的城市，

I think you will need something on the order of a thousand ships.

我想会需要一千艘飞船。

And we just need a Helen of Sparta, I guess, on Mars.

我们只需要在火星上打造一个 斯巴达的海伦公主吸引人们前往那里。

CA: This is not in most people's heads, Elon.

安德森：大多数人没有这么想过，埃隆。

EM: The planet that launched 1,000 ships.

马斯克：这个星球发射了1000艘飞船。

CA: That's nice.

安德森：这个很不错。

But this is not in most people's heads,

但大多数人没有这么想过，

this picture that you have in your mind.

你脑海中的这幅画面

There's basically a two-year window,

基本上有两年的窗口期，

you can only really fly to Mars conveniently every two years.

你只能每两年方便地飞往火星，

You were picturing that during the 2030s,

你曾说到21世纪30年代的时候，

every couple of years,

每隔几年，

something like 1,000 Starships take off,

大约1000艘的星舰会起飞，

each containing 100 or more people.

每艘星舰上载着100多个人，

That picture is just completely mind-blowing to me.

这种画面对于我来说太震惊了。

That sense of this armada of humans going to --

就像人类的舰队要前往……

EM: It'll be like "Battlestar Galactica," the fleet departs.

马斯克：就像《 太空堡垒卡拉狄加 》 里的舰队出发一样。

CA: And you think that it can basically be funded by people

安德森：你认为这可以由那些

spending maybe a couple hundred grand on a ticket to Mars?

花费几十万美元前往火星的人承担吗？

Is that price about where it has been?

这个价格会维持不变吗？

EM: Well, I think if you say like,

马斯克：我觉得如果你是说，

what's required in order to get enough people and enough cargo to Mars

把足够的人和货物送往火星，

to build a self-sustaining city.

从而建造一个自给自足的城市需要什么，

And it's where you have an intersection

对于想去火星的这部分人而言这里有一个交集，

of sets of people who want to go,

because I think only a small percentage of humanity will want to go,

因为我认为只有一小部分的人会想去，

and can afford to go or get sponsorship in some manner.

并且能够承担起或者以某种方式获得赞助，

That intersection of sets, I think,

对于这两个集合的交集而言，

needs to be a million people or something like that.

我想大概需要一百万人左右，

And so it’s what can a million people afford, or get sponsorship for,

而这也就是一百万人可以承担得起 或者可以获得赞助的原因。

because I think governments will also pay for it,

因为我认为政府也会为此买单，

and people can take out loans.

人们可以获得一些贷款，

But I think at the point at which you say, OK, like,

但是我想对于你说的，

if moving to Mars costs are, for argument’s sake, $100,000,

为了方便讨论，前往火星的成本是10万美元，

then I think you know, almost anyone can work and save up

那么我想几乎每个人都可以工作、存钱，

and eventually have $100,000 and be able to go to Mars if they want.

存够10万美元后， 如果他们想的话，就可以去火星了，

We want to make it available to anyone who wants to go.

我们想要每个想去火星的人都可以去，

It's very important to emphasize that Mars, especially in the beginning,

需要强调的是火星，尤其是在起步阶段，

will not be luxurious.

不会拥有奢侈的环境条件，

It will be dangerous, cramped, difficult, hard work.

这将是危险、拥挤、困难且艰苦的工作，

It's kind of like that Shackleton ad for going to the Antarctic,

这有点像沙克尔顿前往南极的广告。

which I think is actually not real, but it sounds real and it's cool.

我认为它实际上是假的 不过听起来很真实、很酷，

It's sort of like, the sales pitch for going to Mars is,

去火星的推销辞有点像是

"It's dangerous, it's cramped.

“此行危险拥挤，

You might not make it back.

或将无路可退。

It's difficult, it's hard work."

任务艰难，险阻重重。”

That's the sales pitch.

这就是推销的说辞。

CA: Right.

安德森：是的。

But you will make history.

但你将书写历史。

EM: But it'll be glorious.

马斯克：但这将无比荣耀。

CA: So on that kind of launch rate you're talking about over two decades,

安德森：所以在这样的发射速度下， 你所讨论的是20年的时间里，

you could get your million people to Mars, essentially.

你就能把上百万人送往火星，

Whose city is it?

那么这会是谁的城市？

Is it NASA's city, is it SpaceX's city?

是NASA的城市还是SpaceX的城市？

EM: It’s the people of Mars’ city.

马斯克：是火星上的人类的城市，

The reason for this, I mean, I feel like why do this thing?

我这件事情的原因是

I think this is important for maximizing

我认为这有一点很重要，

the probable lifespan of humanity or consciousness.

就是最大化人类或其意识的寿命，

Human civilization could come to an end for external reasons,

人类文明可能会因为外部的一些因素而终结，

like a giant meteor or super volcanoes or extreme climate change.

比如巨大的流星、超级火山 或者极端的气候变化

Or World War III, or you know, any one of a number of reasons.

亦或是第三次世界大战或者其他原因。

But the probable life span of civilizational consciousness

而文明意识的寿命，

as we know it,

正如我们所知

which we should really view as this very delicate thing,

是一个很微妙的事情，

like a small candle in a vast darkness.

就像茫茫黑暗中的一根细小的蜡烛，

That is what appears to be the case.

这似乎就是事实。

We're in this vast darkness of space,

我们身处于黑暗的浩瀚宇宙，

and there's this little candle of consciousness

我们的意识就是一根小小的蜡烛，

that’s only really come about after 4.5 billion years,

而它在45亿年才出现，

and it could just go out.

并且可以离开地球。

CA: I think that's powerful,

安德森：我认为这很重要，

and I think a lot of people will be inspired by that vision.

我想很多人都会受到这个愿景的鼓舞，

And the reason you need the million people

你需要这一百万人的原因，

is because there has to be enough people there

因为那里必须有足够多的人，

to do everything that you need to survive.

为了生存拼尽全力。

EM: Really, like the critical threshold is if the ships from Earth stop coming

马斯克：有一个关键的阈值就是 如果地球上的飞船不再来，

for any reason,

出于任何原因，

does the Mars City die out or not?

那么火星的城市会不会就此灭亡？

And so we have to --

所以我们必须

You know, people talk about like, the sort of, the great filters,

就像人们会谈到巨大的过滤器，

the things that perhaps, you know,

也许

we talk about the Fermi paradox, and where are the aliens?

我们会讨论费米悖论，外星人在哪里，

Well maybe there are these various great filters

也许有很多各种各样的大型过滤器，

that the aliens didn’t pass,

而外星人并没能通过，

and so they eventually just ceased to exist.

所以它们最终就不会存在，

And one of the great filters is becoming a multi-planet species.

而其中的一个大型过滤器 就是成为一个多行星物种，

So we want to pass that filter.

我们想要通过这个过滤器，

And I'll be long-dead before this is, you know, a real thing,

而我可能早早就死了，

before it happens.

等不到这一天。

But I’d like to at least see us make great progress in this direction.

但我希望至少可以看到我们 在这个方向上取得巨大的进展。

CA: Given how tortured the Earth is right now,

安德森：我们地球正在遭受折磨，

how much we're beating each other up,

我们互相争斗，

shouldn't there be discussions going on

难道不应该继续讨论，

with everyone who is dreaming about Mars to try to say,

和每一个做着火星梦的人说，

we've got a once in a civilization's chance

我们文明有这样一个仅有一次的机会

to make some new rules here?

来制定一些新的规则，

Should someone be trying to lead those discussions

是否应该有一些人来引导这些讨论，

to figure out what it means for this to be the people of Mars' City?

来搞清楚这对于 火星城市里的人来说意味着什么。

EM: Well, I think ultimately

马斯克：我认为最终

this will be up to the people of Mars to decide

这将取决于火星上的人类，

how they want to rethink society.

他们要如何重新思考社会，

Yeah there’s certainly risk there.

这之中当然有一定的风险，

And hopefully the people of Mars will be more enlightened

希望火星上的人们会更加明智，

and will not fight amongst each other too much.

彼此之间不会有太多的争斗。

I mean, I have some recommendations,

我有一些建议

which people of Mars may choose to listen to or not.

火星上的人们可以选择听或者不听，

I would advocate for more of a direct democracy,

我更倾向于主张直接民主制，

not a representative democracy,

而非代议民主制。

and laws that are short enough for people to understand.

而法律应该足够简短让人们可以理解，

Where it is harder to create laws than to get rid of them.

制定法律要比废除法律更难。

CA: Coming back a bit nearer term,

安德森：让我们回到更近一点的时期，

I'd love you to just talk a bit about some of the other possibility space

我想让你谈一谈其他的可能性。

that Starship seems to have created.

星舰将可以给我们带来什么。

So given --

鉴于……

Suddenly we've got this ability to move 100 tons-plus into orbit.

突然间我们就拥有了 将100多吨的物体送入轨道的能力，

So we've just launched the James Webb telescope,

我们刚刚发射了詹姆斯·韦伯的望远镜，

which is an incredible thing.

这个东西很神奇，

It's unbelievable.

令人难以置信。

EM: Exquisite piece of technology.

马斯克：工艺精湛。

CA: Exquisite piece of technology.

安德森：工艺精湛。

But people spent two years trying to figure out how to fold up this thing.

但人们用两年来想出怎样折叠这个东西，

It's a three-ton telescope.

这个望远镜有三吨重。

EM: We can make it a lot easier if you’ve got more volume and mass.

马斯克：如果你有更大的体积和质量 我们可以让这个过程更容易。

CA: But let's ask a different question.

安德森：但让我们问另一个问题，

Which is, how much more powerful a telescope could someone design

人们可以设计出多强大的望远镜，

based on using Starship, for example?

比如说在使用星舰的基础上。

EM: I mean, roughly, I'd say it's probably an order of magnitude more resolution.

马斯克：大致上分辨率可以提升一个数量级，

If you've got 100 tons and a thousand cubic meters volume,

如果重量达100吨，体积达1000立方米，

which is roughly what we have.

这大概就是我们拥有的东西。

CA: And what about other exploration through the solar system?

安德森：那么在太阳系中的其他探索活动呢？

I mean, I'm you know --

我的意思是……

EM: Europa is a big question mark.

马斯克：木卫二欧罗巴非常神秘。

CA: Right, so there's an ocean there.

安德森：是的，那里有一个海洋，

And what you really want to do is to drop a submarine into that ocean.

而你真正想做的是在那片海洋上投入潜水艇。

EM: Maybe there's like, some squid civilization,

马斯克：也许有乌贼文明，

cephalopod civilization under the ice of Europa.

头足类文明存在于欧罗巴的冰层下，

That would be pretty interesting.

这会很有趣。

CA: I mean, Elon, if you could take a submarine to Europa

安德森：埃隆， 如果你可以带着潜水艇去欧罗巴，

and we see pictures of this thing being devoured by a squid,

而我们看到这艘潜水艇被乌贼吞噬的照片，

that would honestly be the happiest moment of my life.

说实话，那将是我一生中最开心的时刻。

EM: Pretty wild, yeah.

马斯克：这很狂野，没错。

CA: What other possibilities are out there?

安德森：还有什么其他的可能性？

Like, it feels like if you're going to create a thousand of these things,

比如，如果你要造一千艘这样的东西，

they can only fly to Mars every two years.

它们每两年才能飞一次火星，

What are they doing the rest of the time?

那么其余的时间会做什么？

It feels like there's this explosion of possibility

感觉就像各种可能会爆发式地出现，

that I don't think people are really thinking about.

而我认为人类并没有真正思考过这些可能性。

EM: I don't know, we've certainly got a long way to go.

马斯克：我不知道，我们肯定会有很长的路要走，

As you alluded to earlier, we still have to get to orbit.

正如你先前提及的，我们仍然必须进入轨道。

And then after we get to orbit,

然后在我们进入轨道后，

we have to really prove out and refine full and rapid reusability.

我们必须真正证明并且并进一步使得 飞船可以实现快速且完全的可复用，

That'll take a moment.

而这还要花一点时间，

But I do think we will solve this.

但我认为我们可以解决这个问题。

I'm highly confident we will solve this at this point.

目前我对此非常有信心。

CA: Do you ever wake up with the fear

安德森：你是否曾在醒来时害怕，

that there's going to be this Hindenburg moment for SpaceX where ...

SpaceX项目会出现兴登堡空难的时刻。

EM: We've had many Hindenburg.

马斯克：我们有许多兴登堡空难式的案例，

Well, we've never had Hindenburg moments with people, which is very important.

但我们从来没有发生过载人的空难， 这非常重要，

Big difference.

这两者差异巨大，

We've blown up quite a few rockets.

我们许多火箭都炸毁了，

So there's a whole compilation online that we put together

网上有我们和其他人整理的火箭爆炸的视频合集，

and others put together,

it's showing rockets are hard.

这说明研究火箭很难，

I mean, the sheer amount of energy going through a rocket boggles the mind.

我的意思是，火箭消耗的能量之多难以置信，

So, you know, getting out of Earth's gravity well is difficult.

抵抗地球引力是十分困难的，

We have a strong gravity and a thick atmosphere.

我们星球的重力很大和大气层很厚，

And Mars, which is less than 40 percent,

而在火星它的重力不到地球的40%，

it's like, 37 percent of Earth's gravity

是地球重力的37%，

and has a thin atmosphere.

而且大气层很稀薄，

The ship alone can go all the way

飞船自身可以走完全程，

from the surface of Mars to the surface of Earth.

从火星表面到地球表面，

Whereas getting to Mars requires a giant booster and orbital refilling.

但去火星时需要 一个巨大的助推器并在轨填充燃料。

CA: So, Elon, as I think more about this incredible array of things

安德森：埃隆，我越想到这一系列神奇的事情，

that you're involved with,

你都参与到了其中，

I keep seeing these synergies,

我一直看到这其中多种因素的共同作用，

to use a horrible word,

用一个可怕的词来说，

between them.

他们之间

You know, for example,

举个例子来说，

the robots you're building from Tesla could possibly be pretty handy on Mars,

你在特斯拉制造的机器人 可能会在火星上相当好用，

doing some of the dangerous work and so forth.

比如做一些危险的工作等等，

I mean, maybe there's a scenario where your city on Mars

也许在你火星上的城市里，

doesn't need a million people,

不需要100万个人类，

it needs half a million people and half a million robots.

而只需要50万个人类和五十万机器人，

And that's a possibility.

这是一种可能性，

Maybe The Boring Company could play a role

也许你创立的无聊公司 （The Boring Company）可能

helping create some of the subterranean dwelling spaces that you might need.

帮助建造一些你所需要的地下居住空间。

EM: Yeah.

马斯克：没错。

CA: Back on planet Earth,

安德森：回到地球，

it seems like a partnership between Boring Company and Tesla

无聊公司和特斯拉的合作

could offer an unbelievable deal to a city

可以给城市带来难以置信的交易，

to say, we will create for you a 3D network of tunnels

也就是说我们将为你建造一个3D隧道网络，

populated by robo-taxis

里面运行的是自动驾驶出租车，

that will offer fast, low-cost transport to anyone.

这将为任何人都提供快速且低成本的运输，

You know, full self-driving may or may not be done this year.

完全自动驾驶今年可能会实现，也可能不会。

And in some cities, like, somewhere like Mumbai,

在一些城市，比如孟买，

I suspect won't be done for a decade.

我想十年都不会实现这一愿景。

EM: Some places are more challenging than others.

马斯克：一些地方会比其他地区更具挑战性。

CA: But today, today, with what you've got,

安德森：但是如今，凭借你现在的能力，

you could put a 3D network of tunnels under there.

你可以在下面放一个3D的隧道网络，

EM: Oh, if it’s just in a tunnel, that’s a solved problem.

马斯克：如果只是说在隧道里运行自动驾驶汽车 这个问题其实已经解决了。

CA: Exactly, full self-driving is a solved problem.

安德森：没错，全自动驾驶已经解决了，

To me, there’s amazing synergy there.

对我来说，这之间存在着一种惊人的协同作用，

With Starship,

有了星舰的帮助。

you know, Gwynne Shotwell talked about by 2028 having from city to city,

格温·肖特维尔说到了2028年 从一个城市到另一个城市，

you know, transport on planet Earth.

即地球上的交通方式问题。

EM: This is a real possibility.

马斯克：这个确实可能

The fastest way to get from one place to another,

从一个地方到另一个地方最快的方式，

if it's a long distance, is a rocket.

如果是长距离通行的话，那就是火箭，

It's basically an ICBM.

基本就是洲际弹道导弹。

CA: But it has to land --

安德森：但它必须可以降落

Because it's an ICBM, it has to land probably offshore,

因为这是洲际导弹，它必须在海上着陆，

because it's loud.

因为它太吵了，

So why not have a tunnel that then connects to the city with Tesla?

所以为什么不建立一条隧道， 用特斯拉的车连接城市呢？

And Neuralink.

还有 Neuralink 。

I mean, if you going to go to Mars

如果你要去火星，

having a telepathic connection with loved ones back home,

可以和远在家乡的亲人心灵感应

even if there's a time delay...

即使可能会有延迟。

EM: These are not intended to be connected, by the way.

马斯克：顺便说一句，这两者并不一定要联系起来，

But there certainly could be some synergies, yeah.

但是它们直接肯定可以相互作用。

CA: Surely there is a growing argument

安德森：越来越多的人在讨论，

that you should actually put all these things together

你应该把这些东西都放在一起，

into one company

放进一个公司，

and just have a company devoted to creating a future

拥有一家致力于创造未来的公司，

that’s exciting,

这很令人兴奋，

and let a thousand flowers bloom.

它会让百花齐放，

Have you been thinking about that?

你曾经想过吗？

EM: I mean, it is tricky because Tesla is a publicly-traded company,

马斯克：这个很棘手，因为特斯拉是一家上市公司。

and the investor base of Tesla and SpaceX

特斯拉和SpaceX的投资者，

and certainly Boring Company and Neuralink are quite different.

当然无聊公司和 Neuralink 的投资者是完全不同的，

Boring Company and Neuralink are tiny companies.

无聊公司和Neuralink是很小的公司。

CA: By comparison.

安德森：相比之下。

EM: Yeah, Tesla's got 110,000 people.

马斯克：是的，特斯拉有11万人，

SpaceX I think is around 12,000 people.

SpaceX我想大概有1万2千人，

Boring Company and Neuralink are both under 200 people.

无聊公司和Neuralink都不到200人，

So they're little, tiny companies,

所以它们真的是很小的公司，

but they will probably get bigger in the future.

但它们未来可能会变得更大，

They will get bigger in the future.

它们未来将会变得更大，

It's not that easy to sort of combine these things.

把这些东西合并在一起并不容易。

CA: Traditionally, you have said that for SpaceX especially,

安德森：你曾说，尤其是对于SpaceX来说，

you wouldn't want it public,

你不希望它上市，

because public investors wouldn't support the craziness of the idea

因为公众投资者不会支持这种疯狂的想法，

of going to Mars or whatever.

比如去火星或者做其他事情。

EM: Yeah, making life multi-planetary

马斯克：让人类变成多行星生物这件事，

is outside of the normal time horizon of Wall Street analysts.

超出了华尔街分析师的正常的投资时间跨度。

(Laughs)

（笑声）

To say the least.

至少可以这么说，

CA: I think something's changed, though.

安德森：不过我想有些事情已经变了，

What's changed is that Tesla is now so powerful and so big

改变的是现在的特斯拉 影响如此强大且规模庞大，

and throws off so much cash

并且投入大量的资金，

that you actually could connect the dots here.

让你可以真的把这些点连接起来，

Just tell the public that x-billion dollars a year, whatever your number is,

你只需要告诉公众，每年需要x亿美元， 不管具体数字是多少

will be diverted to the Mars mission.

都会转移到火星任务上去，

I suspect you'd have massive interest in that company.

我猜你对那样的公司很感兴趣，

And it might unlock a lot more possibility for you, no?

这可能会为你解锁更多的可能性。

EM: I would like to give the public access to ownership of SpaceX,

马斯克：我想让公众能够接触到SpaceX，

but I mean the thing that like,

但我的意思是

the overhead associated with a public company is high.

上市公司的运营费用很高，

I mean, as a public company, you're just constantly sued.

作为一家上市公司，你总是会被起诉，

It does occupy like, a fair bit of ...

它确实占据了相当一部分……

You know, time and effort to deal with these things.

你会需要时间和精力来处理这些事情。

CA: But you would still only have one public company, it would be bigger,

安德森：但你仍然只有一个上市公司，它会更大，

and have more things going on.

并且会有更多的事情出现，

But instead of being on four boards, you'd be on one.

但你更想呆在一个董事会，而不是四个。

EM: I'm actually not even on the Neuralink or Boring Company boards.

马斯克：我甚至 都不在Nuralink或无聊公司的董事会，

And I don't really attend the SpaceX board meetings.

我也不怎么参加SpaceX的董事会会议，

We only have two a year,

我们一年只有两次年会，

and I just stop by and chat for an hour.

我只是顺路过去聊一个小时，

The board overhead for a public company is much higher.

上市公司的董事会运营费用要高很多。

CA: I think some investors probably worry about how your time is being split,

安德森：我想一些投资者 可能会担心你的时间分配，

and they might be excited by you know, that.

他们可能会为此感到兴奋，

Anyway, I just woke up the other day

总之，我前几天醒来，

thinking, just, there are so many ways in which these things connect.

想到这些东西之间有很多联系。

And you know, just the simplicity of that mission,

这个任务简洁明了，

of building a future that is worth getting excited about,

创造一个值得兴奋的未来，

might appeal to an awful lot of people.

可能会吸引很多人。

Elon, you are reported by Forbes and everyone else as now, you know,

埃隆，《福布斯》和其他媒体都报道过你，

the world's richest person.

称你是世界上最富有的人。

EM: That’s not a sovereign.

马斯克：这并不意味着至高无上的权利。

CA: (Laughs)

安德森：（笑声）

EM: You know, I think it’s fair to say

马斯克：我觉得可以这么说，

that if somebody is like, the king or de facto king of a country,

如果某个人是一个国家的国王 或者是实际上的国王，

they're wealthier than I am.

它们比我富有多了。

CA: But it’s just harder to measure --

安德森：但这很难评估……

So $300 billion.

所以3000亿美元，

I mean, your net worth on any given day

我是说，你每天的净资产

is rising or falling by several billion dollars.

都会上升或下降几十亿美元，

How insane is that?

这很疯狂。

EM: It's bonkers, yeah.

马斯克：这很疯狂，是的。

CA: I mean, how do you handle that psychologically?

安德森：你心理上怎么应对这种心态？

There aren't many people in the world who have to even think about that.

世界上没有多少人会需要考虑这个东西。

EM: I actually don't think about that too much.

马斯克：我实际上并没有太想过这个问题，

But the thing that is actually more difficult

但真正困难的事情，

and that does make sleeping difficult

让睡眠变得困难的事情是，

is that, you know,

every good hour or even minute

每一小时甚至每一分钟，

of thinking about Tesla and SpaceX

想到特斯拉和SpaceX

has such a big effect on the company

对公司有很大的影响，

that I really try to work as much as possible,

我努力尽可能多地工作，

you know, to the edge of sanity, basically.

直到基本上处于神智清醒的边缘。

Because you know, Tesla’s getting to the point where

因为你知道，特斯拉正在

probably will get to the point later this year,

很可能将会在今年晚些时候实现，

where every high-quality minute of thinking

每一分钟高质量的思考

is a million dollars impact on Tesla.

都会对特斯拉产生上百万美元的利益影响。

Which is insane.

这很疯狂，

I mean, the basic, you know, if Tesla is doing, you know,

我的意思是，如果特斯拉

sort of $2 billion a week, let’s say, in revenue,

每周大概有20亿美元的收入，

it’s sort of $300 million a day, seven days a week.

一周七天，每天能赚3亿美元，

You know, it's ...

你知道……

CA: If you can change that by five percent in an hour’s brainstorm,

安德森：如果你能在一个小时的头脑风暴中改变5%，

that's a pretty valuable hour.

那是非常珍贵的一小时。

EM: I mean, there are many instances where a half-hour meeting,

马斯克：我们有很多案例， 比如一场半小时的会议，

I was able to improve the financial outcome of the company

我就可以提升公司的经济产出

by $100 million in a half-hour meeting.

半小时的会面能赚1亿美元，

CA: There are many other people out there

安德森：外面还有很多人，

who can't stand this world of billionaires.

不能忍受这个拥有亿万富翁的世界，

Like, they are hugely offended by the notion

他们会被一种观点严重冒犯，

that an individual can have the same wealth as, say,

即一个人可以拥有的财富可以和

a billion or more of the world's poorest people.

世界上10亿或者更多的最贫穷人口一样多。

EM: If they examine sort of --

马斯克：如果他们查验某种……

I think there's some axiomatic flaws that are leading them to that conclusion.

我认为有一些不言自明的缺陷 使得他们得出了这个结论，

For sure, it would be very problematic if I was consuming,

当然，这将是一个非常严重的问题，

you know, billions of dollars a year in personal consumption.

如果我每年花费数十亿美元用于个人消费的话，

But that is not the case.

但事实并非如此，

In fact, I don't even own a home right now.

实际上我现在甚至没有我自己的家，

I'm literally staying at friends' places.

我基本上是住在朋友的家里，

If I travel to the Bay Area,

如果我去旧金山湾区，

which is where most of Tesla engineering is,

特斯拉的大部分工程师都在那里，

I basically rotate through friends' spare bedrooms.

我基本上会轮着住在朋友们空闲的卧室里，

I don't have a yacht, I really don't take vacations.

我没有游艇，我并不度假。

It’s not as though my personal consumption is high.

我个人的开销也不高，

I mean, the one exception is a plane.

唯一的例外是飞机。

But if I don't use the plane, then I have less hours to work.

但我如果不用飞机，那么工作的时间就会变短。

CA: I mean, I personally think you have shown that you are mostly driven

安德森：我个人认为你已经展示了你，

by really quite a deep sense of moral purpose.

很大程度上受到道德目标感的激励，

Like, your attempts to solve the climate problem

比如：你尝试解决气候问题，

have been as powerful as anyone else on the planet that I'm aware of.

你产生的影响和我所知的任何的人都一样强大，

And I actually can't understand,

我确实不太理解。

personally, I can't understand the fact

就我个人而言，我不太理解，

that you get all this criticism from the Left about,

你会受到左派的批评，

"Oh, my God, he's so rich, that's disgusting."

“我的天啊，他太有钱了，真恶心。”

When climate is their issue.

当他们面对气候问题时，

Philanthropy is a topic that some people go to.

有些人会谈论慈善这个话题，

Philanthropy is a hard topic.

慈善是个比较难讨论的话题，

How do you think about that?

你对此有什么看法？

EM: I think if you care about the reality of goodness

马斯克：我想如果你关心的是行善的现实行为，

instead of the perception of it, philanthropy is extremely difficult.

而非纠结于它的概念，慈善非常困难。

SpaceX, Tesla, Neuralink and The Boring Company are philanthropy.

SpaceX、特斯拉、Neuralink 和无聊公司都是慈善事业

If you say philanthropy is love of humanity,

如果你说慈善是对全人类的爱，

they are philanthropy.

那它们就是慈善，

Tesla is accelerating sustainable energy.

特斯拉正在加速发展可持续能源，

This is a love -- philanthropy.

这是一种爱——慈善。

SpaceX is trying to ensure the long-term survival of humanity

SpaceX正在努力保证人类的长期生存，

with a multiple-planet species.

通过使人类成为多行星物种的方式，

That is love of humanity.

这是对全人类的爱。

You know, Neuralink is trying to help solve brain injuries

Neuralink努力解决大脑损伤，

and existential risk with AI.

以及人工智能存在的风险，

Love of humanity.

这是对全人类的爱。

Boring Company is trying to solve traffic, which is hell for most people,

无聊公司努力解决交通问题， 这一问题这对于大多数人来说都糟透了，

and that also is love of humanity.

这也是对全人类的爱。

CA: How upsetting is it to you

安德森：你会多么心烦意乱，

to hear this constant drumbeat of,

当你听到这种不断的抨击声，

"Billionaires, my God, Elon Musk, oh, my God?"

“亿万富翁，我的天啊， 埃隆·马斯克，哦我的天啊？”

Like, do you just shrug that off

你会只是不屑一顾，

or does it does it actually hurt?

还是真的会为此感到心痛？

EM: I mean, at this point, it's water off a duck's back.

马斯克：这种情况我根本不在乎。

CA: Elon, I’d like to, as we wrap up now,

安德森：埃隆，我想，快速总结一下，

just pull the camera back and just think ...

让我们把镜头拉回来，想一想，

You’re a father now of seven surviving kids.

你现在是七个孩子的父亲了。

EM: Well, I mean, I'm trying to set a good example

马斯克：我努力树立一个好榜样，

because the birthrate on Earth is so low

因为地球上的出生率很低，

that we're facing civilizational collapse

我们正面临着文明的崩溃，

unless the birth rate returns to a sustainable level.

除非出生率可以达到人口发展可持续的水平。

CA: Yeah, you've talked about this a lot,

安德森：你对此谈到了很多，

that depopulation is a big problem,

人口减少是个大问题，

and people don't understand how big a problem it is.

人们不知道这个问题有多严重。

EM: Population collapse is one of the biggest threats

马斯克：人口崩溃是对人类未来最大的威胁之一，

to the future of human civilization.

And that is what is going on right now.

这就是现在发生的事情。

CA: What drives you on a day-to-day basis to do what you do?

安德森：是什么驱使你每天做这些事情？

EM: I guess, like, I really want to make sure

马斯克：我想我真的很想确保，

that there is a good future for humanity

人类有一个美好的未来，

and that we're on a path to understanding the nature of the universe,

我们正走在了解宇宙本质的道路上，

the meaning of life.

了解生命的意义。

Why are we here, how did we get here?

我们为什么在这里，我们怎样来到了这里？

And in order to understand the nature of the universe

为了了解宇宙的本质，

and all these fundamental questions,

以及所有这些根本性的问题。

we must expand the scope and scale of consciousness.

我们必须扩大人类意识的范围和规模，

Certainly it must not diminish or go out.

当然它不会减少或消失，

Or we certainly won’t understand this.

否则我们必定无法理解，

I would say I’ve been motivated by curiosity more than anything,

我想说我最大的动力是好奇心，

and just desire to think about the future

还有对未来的渴望，

and not be sad, you know?

并且不想伤心。

CA: And are you?

安德森：你现在呢？

Are you not sad?

你不会悲伤吗？

EM: I'm sometimes sad,

马斯克：我有时会伤心，

but mostly I'm feeling I guess

但大多数情况下，

relatively optimistic about the future these days.

我对于未来相对乐观，

There are certainly some big risks that humanity faces.

当然人类也面临着一些重大风险，

I think the population collapse is a really big deal,

我认为人口崩溃是一个大问题，

that I wish more people would think about

我希望更多的人能想到，

because the birth rate is far below what's needed to sustain civilization

因为出生率远低于维持文明所需要的出生率，

at its current level.

就目前的水平而言，

And there's obviously ...

很明显，

We need to take action on climate sustainability,

我们需要在气候可持续发展上采取行动，

which is being done.

这就是我们现在在做的，

And we need to secure the future of consciousness

我们需要保证我们人类的意识的未来，

by being a multi-planet species.

通过成为一个多星球的物种,

We need to address --

我们需要解决——

Essentially, it's important to take whatever actions we can think of

从本质上说，重要的是，采取我们想到的任何行动，

to address the existential risks that affect the future of consciousness.

来解决影响未来意识的既存风险。

CA: There's a whole generation coming through

安德森：有一整代人，

who seem really sad about the future.

会对未来非常悲伤，

What would you say to them?

你会对他们说什么?

EM: Well, I think if you want the future to be good, you must make it so.

马斯克：我认为如果你想让未来变得美好 你就必须付诸努力，

Take action to make it good.

采取行动让它变得美好，

And it will be.

它就会成真。

CA: Elon, thank you for all this time.

安德森：埃隆，感谢你抽出时间。

That is a beautiful place to end.

这是一个圆满的收尾。

Thanks for all you're doing.

感谢你所做的一切。

EM: You're welcome.

马斯克：不客气。