Elon Musk: A future worth getting excited about | Tesla Texas Gigafactory interview | TED

Chris Anderson: Elon Musk, great to see you.

譯者: Val Zhang 審譯者: Zoe Walmsley

克里斯•安德森（安）： 伊隆•馬斯克，

很高興再見，你好嗎？

How are you?

伊隆•馬斯克（馬）： 很好，你也都好嗎？

Elon Musk: Good. How are you?

安：我們此時所在是德州的 Gigafactory，明天開幕，

CA: We're here at the Texas Gigafactory the day before this thing opens.

It's been pretty crazy out there.

外頭很熱鬧。

Thank you so much for making time on a busy day.

謝謝你於百忙中撥冗。

I would love you to help us, kind of, cast our minds,

安：我想請你幫忙展望 未來的十年、二十年及三十年，

I don't know, 10, 20, 30 years into the future.

And help us try to picture what it would take

幫我們想像──

如何建立一個值得期待的未來。

to build a future that's worth getting excited about.

The last time you spoke at TED,

上次你在 TED 演講時，

you said that that was really just a big driver.

你提到展望是很大的動力。

You know, you can talk about lots of other reasons to do the work you're doing,

你說有太多的原因讓你從事你的工作，

但最根本的原因是：

but fundamentally, you want to think about the future

你希望放眼未來時，能不感到絕望。

and not think that it sucks.

EM: Yeah, absolutely.

馬：是的，當然。

我認為整體而言，

I think in general, you know,

there's a lot of discussion of like, this problem or that problem.

有太議題、太多的問題，

And a lot of people are sad about the future

讓許多人對未來憂傷，

and they're ...

Pessimistic.

他們很悲觀。

And I think ...

而我認為…

this is ...

這樣不太好。

This is not great.

I mean, we really want to wake up in the morning

我覺得，每天早上醒來， 我們應該期待未來，

and look forward to the future.

We want to be excited about what's going to happen.

對即將要發生的充滿興奮、期待。

And life cannot simply be about sort of,

生命不能僅是解決接踵而至的問題。

solving one miserable problem after another.

CA: So if you look forward 30 years, you know, the year 2050

安：若你展望 30 年後，

2050 年已被科學家認為──

has been labeled by scientists

as this, kind of, almost like this doomsday deadline on climate.

有點像是氣候變遷的世界末日。

There's a consensus of scientists, a large consensus of scientists,

多數科學家的共識是──

who believe that if we haven't completely eliminated greenhouse gases

若人類無法完全消除溫室氣體，

or offset them completely by 2050,

或於 2050 年前將之完全抵消，

effectively we're inviting climate catastrophe.

基本上形同主動引起氣候災難。

Do you believe there is a pathway to avoid that catastrophe?

你覺得有避免那場災難的途徑嗎？

And what would it look like?

如果有，應該是什麼樣子呢？

EM: Yeah, so I am not one of the doomsday people,

馬：嗯，我不認同末日派的觀點，

which may surprise you.

這或許讓你訝異。

I actually think we're on a good path.

我其實認為我們的方向很穩健。

But at the same time,

但於此同時，

I want to caution against complacency.

我想提醒大家不要自滿。

So, so long as we are not complacent,

所以只要我們不自滿，

as long as we have a high sense of urgency

只要我們懷有高度的迫切感，

about moving towards a sustainable energy economy,

持續推動永續能源經濟，

then I think things will be fine.

我想應該就沒事的。

So I can't emphasize that enough,

我想再強調一次，

as long as we push hard and are not complacent,

只要我們努力不懈，不滿足於現狀，

the future is going to be great.

未來一定很美好。

Don't worry about it.

別過度擔心。

I mean, worry about it,

我是說，可以擔憂未來，

but if you worry about it, ironically, it will be a self-unfulfilling prophecy.

但是擔心過頭反而像是預示了失敗。

So, like, there are three elements to a sustainable energy future.

我覺得未來的永續能源 有三個主要要素。

One is of sustainable energy generation, which is primarily wind and solar.

第一是永續能源發電， 主要是風能和太陽能。

There's also hydro, geothermal,

另外還有水力、地熱，

I'm actually pro-nuclear.

我其實是擁核派，

I think nuclear is fine.

我覺得核能沒問題。

But it's going to be primarily solar and wind,

但主要的能源還是太陽能和風能。

as the primary generators of energy.

The second part is you need batteries to store the solar and wind energy

第二是我們需要電池 來儲存太陽能和風能，

because the sun doesn't shine all the time,

因為太陽不會一直高掛，

the wind doesn't blow all the time.

風不會一直吹。

So it's a lot of stationary battery packs.

所以需要很多固定式電池儲能系統。

而且也需要電動交通工具。

And then you need electric transport.

So electric cars, electric planes, boats.

電動車、電動飛機、電動船。

And then ultimately,

然後最後是…

火箭不太可能改成電動的，

it’s not really possible to make electric rockets,

but you can make the propellant used in rockets

但火箭的推進器可以改用永續能源。

using sustainable energy.

So ultimately, we can have a fully sustainable energy economy.

所以我們最終能有 全面使用永續能源的經濟，

And it's those three things:

重點就是這三樣東西：

solar/wind, stationary battery pack, electric vehicles.

太陽能/風電、固定式 電池儲能系統、電動車。

So then what are the limiting factors on progress?

那現在有甚麼限制我們 進一步發展的因素？

The limiting factor really will be battery cell production.

最主要的限制來自電池的製造。

So that's going to really be the fundamental rate driver.

那是驅動變革速度的根本關鍵。

And then whatever the slowest element

整個鋰離子電池供應鏈中 最慢的環節──

of the whole lithium-ion battery cells supply chain,

from mining and the many steps of refining

從採礦、精煉的繁多步驟，

to ultimately creating a battery cell

到最終製成電池，

and putting it into a pack,

再裝進電池儲能系統──

that will be the limiting factor on progress towards sustainability.

正是我們朝永續發展進程的限制。

CA: All right, so we need to talk more about batteries,

安：好的，那我們得多談談電池，

because the key thing that I want to understand,

我最想了解的是，

like, there seems to be a scaling issue here

關鍵似乎是在產量規模上，

有點難以置信和緊張。

that is kind of amazing and alarming.

You have said that you have calculated

你曾說你計算過：

that the amount of battery production that the world needs for sustainability

要做到全球永續所需的電池產量

is 300 terawatt hours of batteries.

相當於 300 兆瓦時的規模。

That's the end goal?

那是終極目標？

EM: Very rough numbers,

馬：那是非常粗略的數字，

and I certainly would invite others to check our calculations

誠摯歡迎大家檢驗我們的計算方式，

because they may arrive at different conclusions.

很可能都會得出不同的結論。

But in order to transition, not just current electricity production,

要轉型的不只是目前的發電量，

but also heating and transport,

還得加上暖氣和運輸，

which roughly triples the amount of electricity that you need,

那大約是所需電力的三倍，

it amounts to approximately 300 terawatt hours of installed capacity.

合計約 300 兆瓦時的電量。

CA: So we need to give people a sense of how big a task that is.

安：所以我們需要讓人 具體明白這任務有多艱鉅。

I mean, here we are at the Gigafactory.

我們此刻所在的 Gigafactory，

You know, this is one of the biggest buildings in the world.

應該是全世界最大的建築物之一。

我之前看過一個數字， 但不確定現在是否仍是──

What I've read, and tell me if this is still right,

is that the goal here is to eventually produce 100 gigawatt hours

你最終希望達到的電池產量

相當於一千億瓦的電力。

of batteries here a year eventually.

EM: We will probably do more than that,

馬：也有可能會比那更多，

but yes, hopefully we get there within a couple of years.

而且，希望這目標能在一兩年內達到。

CA: Right.

安：是。但是那個…

But I mean, that is one --

EM: 0.1 terrawat hours.

馬：0.1 兆瓦。

CA: But that's still 1/100 of what's needed.

安：那僅是所需總量的 1%，

How much of the rest of that 100 is Tesla planning to take on

針對剩下的 99% TESLA 是否有計畫

let's say, between now and 2030, 2040,

在 2030、2040 年前提高產能，

達到屆時必要的電量規模呢?

when we really need to see the scale up happen?

EM: I mean, these are just guesses.

馬：我說的只是我的猜測，

So please, people shouldn't hold me to these things.

所以拜託大家別要我為此負責。

It's not like this is like some --

What tends to happen is I'll make some like,

我經常碰到這種情況──

我盡力做出預測，

you know, best guess

and then people, in five years,

然後五年後，有些混蛋就寫：

there’ll be some jerk that writes an article:

"Elon said this would happen, and it didn't happen.

「伊隆預測會發生，結果並沒有。

He's a liar and a fool."

真是個騙子、傻瓜。」

碰到這種情況真的很煩。

It's very annoying when that happens.

So these are just guesses, this is a conversation.

所以，這僅是猜測，聊天而已。

CA: Right.

安：好的。

EM: I think Tesla probably ends up doing 10 percent of that.

馬：我認為 TESLA 最終可能做到 10%。粗略來說。

Roughly.

CA: Let's say 2050

安：假設到 2050 年已經有 很厲害、100% 永續電網，

we have this amazing, you know, 100 percent sustainable electric grid

made up of, you know, some mixture of the sustainable energy sources

由你提到的那些永續能源所構成，

you talked about.

That same grid probably is offering the world

提供全世界── 可能比現在更便宜的能源。

really low-cost energy, isn't it,

compared with now.

And I'm curious about like,

我很好奇的是，

are people entitled to get a little bit excited

人們真的該為未來 可能發生的事感到興奮嗎？

about the possibilities of that world?

EM: People should be optimistic about the future.

馬：人們應該樂觀看待未來。

Humanity will solve sustainable energy.

人類終將實現能源永續。

It will happen if we, you know, continue to push hard,

只要我們繼續努力，就會實現，

the future is bright and good from an energy standpoint.

從能源這方面來看， 未來是光明美好的。

And then it will be possible to also use that energy to do carbon sequestration.

屆時當然也能用永續能源進行碳封存。

It takes a lot of energy to pull carbon out of the atmosphere

將碳從大氣中移除需用到很多能源，

because in putting it in the atmosphere it releases energy.

因為碳排到大氣的過程釋放出能量。

So now, you know, obviously in order to pull it out,

所以現在要將碳移除，

you need to use a lot of energy.

明顯地也需要消耗大量能源。

But if you've got a lot of sustainable energy from wind and solar,

但是如果我們有很多 風電和太陽能之類的永續能源，

you can actually sequester carbon.

我們就能用在碳封存。

So you can reverse the CO2 parts per million of the atmosphere and oceans.

反轉大氣和海洋中的二氧化碳濃度，

And also you can really have as much fresh water as you want.

而且還能想要多少水就有多少水。

地球主要是水，我們 其實應該稱地球為「水球」，

Earth is mostly water.

We should call Earth “Water.”

It's 70 percent water by surface area.

因為 70% 的地球表面為水覆蓋，

Now most of that’s seawater,

其中大部分是海水，

but it's like we just happen to be on the bit that's land.

人類只是剛好生活在土地上。

CA: And with energy, you can turn seawater into --

安：有了能源， 我們能將海水轉化為──

EM: Yes.

馬：是的。

CA: Irrigating water or whatever water you need.

安：灌溉水或任何用途的水。

EM: At very low cost.

馬：成本低廉。

Things will be good.

一切都很好。

CA: Things will be good.

安：會愈來愈好。

And also, there's other benefits to this non-fossil fuel world

因為不使用石化燃料還有其他好處，

where the air is cleaner --

像是更清淨的空氣…

EM: Yes, exactly.

馬：是的，沒錯。

Because, like, when you burn fossil fuels,

因為使用石化燃料的連帶反應、

there's all these side reactions

各種不同的有毒氣體，

and toxic gases of various kinds.

And sort of little particulates that are bad for your lungs.

還有對肺部有害的微粒，

Like, there's all sorts of bad things that are happening

那些我們所知的壞處都會消失。

that will go away.

And the sky will be cleaner and quieter.

天空會更乾淨，更安靜。

The future's going to be good.

未來會很好。

CA: I want us to switch now to think a bit about artificial intelligence.

安：我想轉談人工智慧，

But the segue there,

但在那之前，

you mentioned how annoying it is when people call you up

你剛提到大家在你預測 失準時的反應讓你很煩。

for bad predictions in the past.

So I'm possibly going to be annoying now,

所以我接下來可能開始煩你，

but I’m curious about your timelines and how you predict

因為我很好奇你如何預測未來，

and how come some things are so amazingly on the money and some aren't.

為什麼有些對金額方面的預測 如此準確，有些則否。

So when it comes to predicting sales of Tesla vehicles, for example,

舉例來說，在預測 TESLA 的銷售量時，

you've kind of been amazing,

你的預測太準了。

2014 那年，我記得 TESLA 賣了六萬輛車，

I think in 2014 when Tesla had sold that year 60,000 cars,

you said, "2020, I think we will do half a million a year."

你當時說：「 我預測 2020 年， 我們能達到 50 萬輛。」

EM: Yeah, we did almost exactly a half million.

馬：是的，那年差不多 剛好就是 50 萬輛。

安：你們賣了幾乎 50 萬輛。

CA: You did almost exactly half a million.

2014 年你被嘲諷，因為 那種增長率只出現過一次──

You were scoffed in 2014 because no one since Henry Ford,

with the Model T, had come close to that kind of growth rate for cars.

亨利．福特及他的 T 型車。

You were scoffed, and you actually hit 500,000 cars

雖然被嘲諷，但你後來 的確賣了 50 萬輛車，

and then 510,000 or whatever produced.

實際生產了 51 萬輛還是更多。

But five years ago, last time you came to TED,

但五年前，上次你來 TED 時，

I asked you about full self-driving,

我向你請教「全自動駕駛」，

and you said, “Yeah, this very year,

你當時說：「是的，就在今年，

I'm confident that we will have a car going from LA to New York

我相信我們會做出來── 能從洛杉磯到紐約──

without any intervention."

無須人力介入的全自動駕駛車。」

EM: Yeah, I don't want to blow your mind, but I'm not always right.

馬：是啊，不要太吃驚， 我也有出錯的時候。

CA: (Laughs)

安：（笑聲）

What's the difference between those two?

這兩個預測差別在哪？

尤其「全自動駕駛」 為何如此難以預測？

Why has full self-driving in particular been so hard to predict?

EM: I mean, the thing that really got me,

馬：其實，真正打擊我的是──

應該也會打擊許多人的是──

and I think it's going to get a lot of other people,

is that there are just so many false dawns with self-driving,

自動駕駛的開發充滿太多 終點在望的空歡喜，

where you think you've got the problem,

每次以為找到癥結，

have a handle on the problem,

也把問題處理掉了，

and then it, no, turns out you just hit a ceiling.

結果又遇到了瓶頸。

Because if you were to plot the progress,

如果把進展繪製成圖，

the progress looks like a log curve.

看起來就好像「對數曲線」。

So it's like a series of log curves.

整個進展就像一連串的對數曲線。

So most people don't know what a log curve is, I suppose.

我猜多數人不知道 「對數曲線」是甚麼。

CA: Show the shape with your hands.

安：用你的手比畫看看。

EM: It goes up you know, sort of a fairly straight way,

馬：曲線一開始會直線上揚，

and then it starts tailing off

之後力道開始趨緩，

and you start getting diminishing returns.

效益開始遞減。

And you're like, uh oh,

你開始感覺不妙，

it was trending up and now it's sort of, curving over

之前的上升趨勢開始趨緩，

and you start getting to these, what I call local maxima,

出現我所謂的「局部最大值」，

where you don't realize basically how dumb you were.

這些階段性高峰讓你 意識到自己有多蠢。

And then it happens again.

同樣的情形重複循環，

And ultimately...

最終...，

These things, you know, in retrospect, they seem obvious,

現在回頭看再明顯不過，

but in order to solve full self-driving properly,

要能真正實現全自動駕駛，

you actually have to solve real-world AI.

就得先做出符合現實世界的人工智慧。

Because what are the road networks designed to work with?

試想：道路系統的設計 是為了與什麼適用？

They're designed to work with a biological neural net, our brains,

原本的設計是適用於 生物神經網絡──我們的大腦，

and with vision, our eyes.

和視覺──我們的眼睛。

And so in order to make it work with computers,

現在如果要用電腦接手，

you basically need to solve real-world AI and vision.

基本上得先做出真實世界的 人工智慧和視覺。

Because we need cameras

自駕車需要相機和矽神經網絡，

and silicon neural nets

in order to have self-driving work

才能行駛在原本為人眼 和生物神經網絡設計的道路上。

for a system that was designed for eyes and biological neural nets.

You know, I guess when you put it that way,

我想這樣詮釋，應該會很清楚：

it's sort of, like, quite obvious

that the only way to solve full self-driving

實現全自動駕駛只欠兩個東西 ──

is to solve real world AI and sophisticated vision.

符合現實世界的 AI 及精密的人工視覺。

CA: What do you feel about the current architecture?

安：你對目前的架構有多少把握？

你覺得現有的架構有機會

Do you think you have an architecture now

where there is a chance

讓對數曲線不會太快往下走嗎？

for the logarithmic curve not to tail off any anytime soon?

EM: Well I mean, admittedly these may be infamous last words,

馬：嗯，確實，這樣說可能 又成為一個臭名昭彰的預言，

but I actually am confident that we will solve it this year.

但我其實有自信我們今年有可能實現。

That we will exceed --

我們可以將全自駕的肇事機率 控制在低於人類駕駛的機率。

The probability of an accident,

at what point do you exceed that of the average person?

I think we will exceed that this year.

我想我們今年可以達標。

CA: What are you seeing behind the scenes that gives you that confidence?

安：你是否有什麼內幕資訊 所以如此肯定？

EM: We’re almost at the point where we have a high-quality

馬：我們快要完成 高畫質的向量空間統合了。

unified vector space.

In the beginning, we were trying to do this with image recognition

最初我們用影像辨識技術 去辨識分析個別影像，

on individual images.

但是，單靠影片中截出的一張圖，

But if you get one image out of a video,

it's actually quite hard to see what's going on without ambiguity.

其實很難看到全貌斷定狀況。

But if you look at a video segment of a few seconds of video,

但若是影像片段，即使只有幾秒長，

that ambiguity resolves.

產生誤判的問題就解決了。

So the first thing we had to do is tie all eight cameras together

我們首先將全部八台相機連結起來，

so they're synchronized,

讓它們其同步運作，

so that all the frames are looked at simultaneously

如此所有的影像畫格會同時被檢視，

and labeled simultaneously by one person,

也由同一個人進行標註，

because we still need human labeling.

因為現階度仍需要人工標註。

這樣做至少可以避免畫格 在不同時間、由不同人、

So at least they’re not labeled at different times by different people

in different ways.

以不同方式標註。

有點像是「立體環繞影像」 。

So it's sort of a surround picture.

Then a very important part is to add the time dimension.

接著是一個非常重要的環節── 加入「時間維度」，

So that you’re looking at surround video,

你看的才會是「立體環繞影像」 ，

and you're labeling surround video.

標註的是立體環繞影像。

And this is actually quite difficult to do from a software standpoint.

從軟體的角度而言，其實難度很高。

We had to write our own labeling tools

我們得自行開發標註工具、

and then create auto labeling,

打造自動化的標註軟體，

create auto labeling software to amplify the efficiency of human labelers

取代效率不高的人工標註， 因為標註真的很難。

because it’s quite hard to label.

In the beginning, it was taking several hours

最初，一段十秒長的影像 得花上幾小時去標註，

to label a 10-second video clip.

This is not scalable.

這種速度無法量產。

So basically what you have to have is you have to have surround video,

所以基本上，你得先把 立體環繞影像做出來，

and that surround video has to be primarily automatically labeled

環繞影像再由自動化程式進行標註，

with humans just being editors

人類只需要做最後的編輯、 對標註做些微的調整，

and making slight corrections to the labeling of the video

and then feeding back those corrections into the future auto labeler,

然後把這些修正 回饋給自動標註系統，

so you get this flywheel eventually

最終產生「飛輪效應」：

where the auto labeler is able to take in vast amounts of video

自動標註系統可以處理 龐大的影像資料，且高度精準，

and with high accuracy,

automatically label the video for cars, lane lines, drive space.

無論是汽車、車道線或行駛空間。

CA: What you’re saying is ...

安：所以，你所說的是── 最終要達成的是：

the result of this is that you're effectively giving the car a 3D model

這個系統能有效地將車子 週遭的物件建立 3D 立體模型。

of the actual objects that are all around it.

It knows what they are,

它能辨識物件，

and it knows how fast they are moving.

知道物件移動的速度。

And the remaining task is to predict

目前剩下的任務是預測

what the quirky behaviors are that, you know,

那些物件可能產生哪些古怪行為，

that when a pedestrian is walking down the road with a smaller pedestrian,

比方說，一個行人與 一個較小的行人走在路上，

that maybe that smaller pedestrian might do something unpredictable

也許較小的行人會做出 無法預料的行為之類的事。

or things like that.

You have to build into it before you can really call it safe.

你覺得車子要有 這種判斷力才算安全。

EM: You basically need to have memory across time and space.

馬：基本上需要有 涵蓋時間和空間的記憶。

So what I mean by that is ...

我的意思是...

Memory can’t be infinite,

記憶體有上限，

because it's using up a lot of the computer's RAM basically.

這系統需要動用很多電腦的記憶體，

So you have to say how much are you going to try to remember?

因此得決定有多少東西是必須記憶的。

It's very common for things to be occluded.

視野中的物件被遮蔽是很平常的事。

So if you talk about say, a pedestrian walking past a truck

以行人走過卡車為例：

where you saw the pedestrian start on one side of the truck,

他一開始出現在卡車的一邊，

then they're occluded by the truck.

然後他隱沒在卡車後方，

You would know intuitively,

你的直覺告訴你，

OK, that pedestrian is going to pop out the other side, most likely.

他等等會出現在卡車的另一邊。

CA: A computer doesn't know it.

安：可是電腦不知道。

馬：你知道你得放慢車速。

EM: You need to slow down.

安：抱持懷疑態度的人 這時候就會跳出來說，

CA: A skeptic is going to say that every year for the last five years,

過去這五年，你每年都很肯定，

you've kind of said, well,

no this is the year,

we're confident that it will be there in a year or two or, you know,

說你相信在一兩年內就會實現，

like it's always been about that far away.

感覺每次都是再等一兩年；

But we've got a new architecture now,

你們現在有一個新的架構，

you're seeing enough improvement behind the scenes

你看到幕後有相當的進展，

to make you not certain, but pretty confident,

讓你雖不確定，但相當自信──

that, by the end of this year,

到今年年底，

what in most, not in every city, and every circumstance

或許不是每個城市跟每種情境，

but in many cities and circumstances,

但在許多城市和情境中，

basically the car will be able to drive without interventions

基本上沒有人為干預的 自駕車就會上路，

safer than a human.

比人類駕駛更安全。

EM: Yes.

馬：是的。

I mean, the car currently drives me around Austin

目前我在奧斯汀使用的車

most of the time with no interventions.

多數時間就是不需要人為干預。

So it's not like ...

And we have over 100,000 people

我們的全自駕試車計劃 已經有超過十萬人參加，

in our full self-driving beta program.

網路上可以看到他們發佈的影片。

So you can look at the videos that they post online.

CA: I do.

安：我看了。

And some of them are great, and some of them are a little terrifying.

有一些很棒，有一些有點可怕。

我有看到有時車子好像 失控、偏離，嚇死人。

I mean, occasionally the car seems to veer off

and scare the hell out of people.

EM: It’s still a beta.

馬：因為還是測試版。

安：但你看到幕後的數據，

CA: But you’re behind the scenes, looking at the data,

you're seeing enough improvement

看到足夠的進展，

to believe that a this-year timeline is real.

相信今年會成真。

EM: Yes, that's what it seems like.

馬：是的，似乎就是這樣。

I mean, we could be here talking again in a year,

也許明年此時此地，

like, well, another year went by, and it didn’t happen.

我們發現一年又過去了，還是沒成真。

But I think this is the year.

但我想應該就是今年。

CA: And so in general, when people talk about Elon time,

安：所以，有人說「伊隆時間」，

I mean it sounds like you can't just have a general rule

聽起來好像你沒有一個常規，

that if you predict that something will be done in six months,

若你預測某事會在六個月內完成，

actually what we should imagine is it’s going to be a year

實際上我們該預計一年，

or it’s like two-x or three-x, it depends on the type of prediction.

視預測的內容而定， 可能要兩、三倍的時間。

Some things, I guess, things involving software, AI, whatever,

我想，有些牽涉到軟體、 人工智慧的產品，

are fundamentally harder to predict than others.

基本上就是比較難預測。

Is there an element

那你會特別針對某個元件 抓比較緊的時間表，

that you actually deliberately make aggressive prediction timelines

to drive people to be ambitious?

激勵員工去達到目標，

Without that, nothing gets done?

否則便什麼都做不成？

EM: Well, I generally believe, in terms of internal timelines,

馬：通常來說，就內部時程而言──

that we want to set the most aggressive timeline that we can.

我通常的原則是盡可能抓最短的時間，

Because there’s sort of like a law of gaseous expansion where,

因為就像「氣體膨脹定律」般，

for schedules, where whatever time you set,

無論你抓多少時間，設定何時完成，

it's not going to be less than that.

通常就是要更長的時間才能完成，

It's very rare that it'll be less than that.

提早完成的非常罕見。

But as far as our predictions are concerned,

但是，只要講到我們的預測，

what tends to happen in the media

媒體通常的反應是──

is that they will report all the wrong ones

他們只報導那些我們預測錯的， 對的則隻字不提。

and ignore all the right ones.

Or, you know, when writing an article about me --

還有那些針對我的報導──

I've had a long career in multiple industries.

你知道我的職涯很長， 還橫跨不同產業，

If you list my sins, I sound like the worst person on Earth.

如果把我的過失通通列出來， 聽起來就像地球上的頭號壞蛋。

But if you put those against the things I've done right,

但，你不覺得應該把所有 我成就過的也同時列出來，

it makes much more sense, you know?

那才合理，不是嗎？

So essentially like, the longer you do anything,

基本上，任何事情都是「多做多錯」。

the more mistakes that you will make cumulatively.

Which, if you sum up those mistakes,

如果把我預測錯的東西加總起來，

will sound like I'm the worst predictor ever.

我可能是有史以來最糟的預測者。

But for example, for Tesla vehicle growth,

但是，像 TESLA 的銷售預測，

I said I think we’d do 50 percent, and we’ve done 80 percent.

我當時的預測是 50%， 而現在已經達到 80%。

CA: Yes.

安：是的。

EM: But they don't mention that one.

馬：但媒體不報導，

So, I mean, I'm not sure what my exact track record is on predictions.

所以我不清楚我在預測上的成績表現。

They're more optimistic than pessimistic, but they're not all optimistic.

我做的預測積極多過保守， 但並非全部都是積極。

Some of them are exceeded probably more or later,

有時甚至超出預測，或較晚實現，

but they do come true.

但都實現了。

It's very rare that they do not come true.

沒有實現的非常少。

It's sort of like, you know,

你知道，有點像是……

if there's some radical technology prediction,

例如尖端科技方面的預測，

the point is not that it was a few years late,

重點不在比預測晚了幾年完成，

but that it happened at all.

而是真正發生與否。

That's the more important part.

那才重要。

CA: So it feels like at some point in the last year,

安：好像在去年某個時點，

seeing the progress on understanding,

TESLA AI 對 週遭環境理解力的進步，

the Tesla AI understanding the world around it,

led to a kind of, an aha moment at Tesla.

令 TESLA 突然有種 茅塞頓開的感覺。

Because you really surprised people recently when you said

最近你又說了件讓人驚訝的事，

probably the most important product development

TESLA 今年最重要的產品發展 可能是機器人 Optimus。

going on at Tesla this year is this robot, Optimus.

EM: Yes.

馬：是的。

CA: Many companies out there have tried to put out these robots,

安：已經有許多公司試圖推出機器人，

they've been working on them for years.

他們也投注了許多年，

And so far no one has really cracked it.

可是至今還沒有人真正地做出來。

There's no mass adoption robot in people's homes.

目前也還沒有看到 機器人大量引入家庭生活。

There are some in manufacturing, but I would say,

雖然有部分製造業已採用， 可是我覺得……

no one's kind of, really cracked it.

還沒人真正做出來。

Is it something that happened

是否在發展「全自動駕駛」的過程中

in the development of full self-driving that gave you the confidence to say,

出現什麼關鍵讓你有信心說：

「 我們能做點不同的事。」

"You know what, we could do something special here."

EM: Yeah, exactly.

馬：是的，沒錯。

So, you know, it took me a while to sort of realize

我花了些時間才意識到──

that in order to solve self-driving,

為了實現自動駕駛，

you really needed to solve real-world AI.

你得先有符合現實世界的人工智慧。

And at the point of which you solve real-world AI for a car,

一旦有了車用的人工智慧，

which is really a robot on four wheels,

因為車基本上是四輪的機器人，

you can then generalize that to a robot on legs as well.

接下來才有可能用於有腿的機器人。

The two hard parts I think --

我認為最難的兩部分……

like obviously companies like Boston Dynamics

當然，有些有名的公司， 如「波士頓動力」之類的，

have shown that it's possible to make quite compelling,

已經證明打造出令人信服、 甚至不安的機器人是辦得到的。

sometimes alarming robots.

CA: Right.

安：是的。

馬：所以從感測器和 致動器這方面來看，

EM: You know, so from a sensors and actuators standpoint,

it's certainly been demonstrated by many

已經有很多人、很多例子顯示：

that it's possible to make a humanoid robot.

製出人形機器人是可能的。

The things that are currently missing are enough intelligence

目前缺乏的是足夠的人工智慧

for the robot to navigate the real world and do useful things

讓機器人不需明確指示 就能在現實環境中行動，做有用的事。

without being explicitly instructed.

So the missing things are basically real-world intelligence

所以基本上缺少的是： 現實世界的人工智慧

and scaling up manufacturing.

與量產的製程。

Those are two things that Tesla is very good at.

而這兩樣正是 TESLA 的強項。

And so then we basically just need to design the specialized actuators

所以基本上我們只需要設計出

人形機器人所需的感測器和致動器。

and sensors that are needed for humanoid robot.

大家沒意識到機器人 會帶來比汽車更大的變革。

People have no idea, this is going to be bigger than the car.

CA: So let's dig into exactly that.

安：那我們就來切入那個主題。

I mean, in one way, it's actually an easier problem than full self-driving

機器人某種程度上其實 比全自動駕駛容易處理，

because instead of an object going along at 60 miles an hour,

因為車子以六十英里的時速前進，

which if it gets it wrong, someone will die.

如果出錯，代價是人命。

This is an object that's engineered to only go at what,

而機器人在研發設計上 只有三至五英里的時速。

three or four or five miles an hour.

And so a mistake, there aren't lives at stake.

所以出錯的代價不至於是人命，

There might be embarrassment at stake.

最多只是丟臉罷了。

EM: So long as the AI doesn't take it over and murder us in our sleep or something.

馬：只要人工智慧不叛變， 在睡覺時間暗殺我們就沒事。

CA: Right.

安：對。

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

So talk about --

談談你剛提到的， 機器人首先可能應用於製造業，

I think the first applications you've mentioned

are probably going to be manufacturing,

但最終應該要普及到居家應用上。

but eventually the vision is to have these available for people at home.

If you had a robot that really understood the 3D architecture of your house

若真有機器人確實理解 你家的 3D 立體結構，

and knew where every object in that house was

並知道家中每個東西的位置，

or was supposed to be,

甚至哪個東西該放在哪裡，

and could recognize all those objects,

也能辨識所有的東西，

I mean, that’s kind of amazing, isn’t it?

那會蠻不可思議的，對吧？

Like the kind of thing that you could ask a robot to do

真的這樣，那你會叫機器人做什麼？

would be what?

Like, tidy up?

比如，整理家裡？

EM: Yeah, absolutely.

馬：是的，當然。

Make dinner, I guess, mow the lawn.

做晚飯、修剪草坪。

CA: Take a cup of tea to grandma and show her family pictures.

安：端杯茶給奶奶、 翻家族照片給她看。

EM: Exactly. Take care of my grandmother and make sure --

馬：是的。照顧我的奶奶，而且…

CA: It could obviously recognize everyone in the home.

安：它顯然能認出家中所有成員。

It could play catch with your kids.

還能和孩子一起玩接球。

EM: Yes. I mean, obviously, we need to be careful

馬：是的，顯然我們得小心

this doesn't become a dystopian situation.

防範令人恐懼的、反烏托邦的情況。

I think one of the things that's going to be important

我認為有件事很重要──

is to have a localized ROM chip on the robot

機器人的記憶體必須在本機，

that cannot be updated over the air.

無法透過雲端更新。

Where if you, for example, were to say, “Stop, stop, stop,”

比方說，若你說「 停，停，停」，

if anyone said that,

還是任何人說停，

then the robot would stop, you know, type of thing.

機器人就會停止動作，諸如此類的事，

And that's not updatable remotely.

而且不容許從遠端變更，

I think it's going to be important to have safety features like that.

我認為像這樣的安全功能很重要。

安：是的，這聽起來很明智。

CA: Yeah, that sounds wise.

EM: And I do think there should be a regulatory agency for AI.

馬：我也認為應該要有 人工智慧的監管機構。

這我也說了很多年了。

I've said that for many years.

我不喜歡被監管，

I don't love being regulated,

但我認為這點對公共安全很重要。

but I think this is an important thing for public safety.

CA: Let's come back to that.

安：這點我們稍後再談。

But I don't think many people have really sort of taken seriously

目前我想沒有多少人認真去想

the notion of, you know, a robot at home.

家中有機器人的概念。

I mean, at the start of the computing revolution,

你記得電腦變革剛開始時，

Bill Gates said there's going to be a computer in every home.

比爾•蓋茨說未來每個家庭 都會有一台電腦。

當時大家的反應是： 隨便你怎麼說，誰要那東西。

And people at the time said, yeah, whatever, who would even want that.

Do you think there will be basically like in, say, 2050 or whatever,

你覺得，假設 2050 年好了，

like a robot in most homes, is what there will be,

到時大部分人家中會有個機器人，

and people will love them and count on them?

大家除了喜歡也會倚賴它們？

You’ll have your own butler basically.

基本上就像有個你專用的管家那樣。

EM: Yeah, you'll have your sort of buddy robot probably, yeah.

馬：是的，應該會有像是 好友般的機器人，沒錯。

CA: I mean, how much of a buddy?

安：我想問，像是多好的朋友？

How many applications have you thought,

你有想過有多少種應用？

you know, can you have a romantic partner, a sex partner?

比方說像戀人或性伴侶的機器人？

EM: It's probably inevitable.

馬：這或許是無可避免的。

I mean, I did promise the internet that I’d make catgirls.

我的確在網路上給過 做「貓女」的承諾。

We could make a robot catgirl.

我們可以做「貓女」機器人。

CA: Be careful what you promise the internet.

安：小心你在網路上的承諾。

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

EM: So, yeah, I guess it'll be whatever people want really, you know.

馬：我想最終會做的機器人 應該是大家想要的。

CA: What sort of timeline should we be thinking about

安：那你覺得最快何時

of the first models that are actually made and sold?

可生產及銷售第一代的模型？

EM: Well, you know, the first units that we intend to make

馬：嗯，我們打算最先供應的機器人是

are for jobs that are dangerous, boring, repetitive,

能從事危險、無聊、重複性高、 做任何大家不想做的工作。

and things that people don't want to do.

And, you know, I think we’ll have like an interesting prototype

而且，我想今年應該會先出 一個有趣的原型，

sometime this year.

We might have something useful next year,

明年或許會有實用功能的機器人，

but I think quite likely within at least two years.

我想很可能至少兩年內吧。

And then we'll see rapid growth year over year

接下來每一年都可看到 人形機器人的實用性快速提高，

of the usefulness of the humanoid robots

and decrease in cost and scaling up production.

成本降低、生產規模擴大。

CA: Initially just selling to businesses,

安：從最初僅作商業用途，

or when do you picture you'll start selling them

你覺得何時機器人會成為零售商品，

where you can buy your parents one for Christmas or something?

甚至買給父母當耶誕禮物？

EM: I'd say in less than ten years.

馬：我覺得十年之內吧。

CA: Help me on the economics of this.

安：談一下經濟效益吧。

So what do you picture the cost of one of these being?

你預估每個機器人成本大約多少？

EM: Well, I think the cost is actually not going to be crazy high.

馬：我認為成本不至於是天價，

Like less than a car.

應該會低於一輛車。

Initially, things will be expensive because it'll be a new technology

剛開始昂貴的原因是 新科技及少量生產。

at low production volume.

The complexity and cost of a car is greater than that of a humanoid robot.

車的複雜性和成本 遠高於人形機器人。

So I would expect that it's going to be less than a car,

所以我預期它應該比車便宜，

or at least equivalent to a cheap car.

最貴也不會超過一輛便宜的車。

CA: So even if it starts at 50k, within a few years,

安：所以即使一開始是五萬，

it’s down to 20k or lower or whatever.

幾年後可能降到兩萬或更低。

And maybe for home they'll get much cheaper still.

也許居家用途的機器人還更便宜。

But think about the economics of this.

想像這將給經濟帶來的衝擊。

If you can replace a $30,000,

如果用機器人取代 年薪三、四萬美金的工人，

$40,000-a-year worker,

which you have to pay every year,

原先每年的固定支出，

with a one-time payment of $25,000

被一次性的兩萬五美金取代──

for a robot that can work longer hours,

而且機器人的工時更長，

a pretty rapid replacement of certain types of jobs.

某些工作換成機器人代勞更是容易。

How worried should the world be about that?

全世界該為此擔心嗎？

EM: I wouldn't worry about the sort of, putting people out of a job thing.

馬：我不覺得機器人會導致失業問題。

I think we're actually going to have, and already do have,

事實上，我想大家即將…… 甚至已經面臨嚴重的勞力短缺。

a massive shortage of labor.

So I think we will have ...

所以我想未來的問題...

Not people out of work,

不是人們失業，

but actually still a shortage labor even in the future.

而是仍會處於勞力短缺的狀況。

But this really will be a world of abundance.

未來的世界會是個豐饒的世界。

Any goods and services will be available to anyone who wants them.

人人都能取得所需的任何商品與服務，

It'll be so cheap to have goods and services, it will be ridiculous.

而且平價到讓人不可思議。

安：我猜應該是一些目前 不賺錢的商品和服務，

CA: I'm presuming it should be possible to imagine a bunch of goods and services

that can't profitably be made now but could be made in that world,

未來改由機器人軍團提供後的結果吧。

courtesy of legions of robots.

EM: Yeah.

馬：是的。

It will be a world of abundance.

未來會是一個豐饒的世界，

The only scarcity that will exist in the future

唯一缺乏的會是 人類對自身潛能的發揮。

is that which we decide to create ourselves as humans.

CA: OK.

安：好的。

So AI is allowing us to imagine a differently powered economy

所以 AI 讓我們得以期許 一個截然不同的經濟模式，

that will create this abundance.

繼而創造出那個「豐饒 」。

What are you most worried about going wrong?

你最擔心什麼會出錯？

EM: Well, like I said, AI and robotics will bring out

馬：嗯，如我所說， AI 和機器人技術將帶來

what might be termed the age of abundance.

所謂豐饒的時代──

Other people have used this word,

已經有其他人用過這個詞，

and that this is my prediction:

而我的預測是──

it will be an age of abundance for everyone.

這個豐饒的時代是人人有份。

But I guess there’s ...

唯一的風險，我想應該是……

The dangers would be the artificial general intelligence

……「人工通用智慧」

or digital superintelligence decouples from a collective human will

或「數位超級智慧」 背離人類集體意志，

and goes in the direction that for some reason we don't like.

朝我們不樂見的方向發展，

Whatever direction it might go.

或是與我們預設的不同。

You know, that’s sort of the idea behind Neuralink,

你知道 Neuralink 成立的目標是──

is to try to more tightly couple collective human world

將人類文明與 數位超級智慧合而為一。

to digital superintelligence.

And also along the way solve a lot of brain injuries and spinal injuries

在那之前先幫腦傷或 脊髓傷者恢復部分功能。

and that kind of thing.

即使最終的目標無法達成，

So even if it doesn't succeed in the greater goal,

I think it will succeed in the goal of alleviating brain and spine damage.

在減輕腦損和脊椎損傷這方面， 我覺得我們應該會成功。

CA: So the spirit there is that if we're going to make these AIs

安：所以 AI 的最高境界

應該是把人腦跟之相連，

that are so vastly intelligent, we ought to be wired directly to them

so that we ourselves can have those superpowers more directly.

如此人類能直接擁有那些超能力。

But that doesn't seem to avoid the risk that those superpowers might ...

但這還是無法避免風險……

那些超能力可能叛變的風險。

turn ugly in unintended ways.

EM: I think it's a risk, I agree.

馬：這的確有風險，我同意。

I'm not saying that I have some certain answer to that risk.

我不敢說我已經有解決辦法。

I’m just saying like

我只是覺得或許……

maybe one of the things that would be good

有件事或許能……

for ensuring that the future is one that we want

確保未來朝我們想要的方向發展：

is to more tightly couple

將人類與數位人工智慧 做更緊密的聯結。

the collective human world to digital intelligence.

The issue that we face here is that we are already a cyborg,

眼前的問題是……其實， 你若細想，我們早已是電子人。

if you think about it.

The computers are an extension of ourselves.

電腦就是我們的延伸體。

And when we die, we have, like, a digital ghost.

我們死了後，數位幽靈還繼續存在──

You know, all of our text messages and social media, emails.

我們所有的簡訊、社交媒體 和電子郵件等等的。

And it's quite eerie actually,

這其實蠻詭異──

when someone dies but everything online is still there.

人死了但網路上的一切還在那裏。

你可能想說局限在哪？

But you say like, what's the limitation?

What is it that inhibits a human-machine symbiosis?

是什麼阻礙人機一體的發展？

It's the data rate.

答案是資料傳輸速率。

When you communicate, especially with a phone,

人類傳達訊息時，特別是在手機上，

you're moving your thumbs very slowly.

兩個拇指移動速度很慢。

So you're like moving your two little meat sticks

你的拇指移動的速度

at a rate that’s maybe 10 bits per second, optimistically, 100 bits per second.

大約每秒 10 位元， 最快每秒 100 位元吧。

And computers are communicating at the gigabyte level and beyond.

而電腦傳輸的速度 則是十億位元甚至更高。

CA: Have you seen evidence that the technology is actually working,

安：你是否已看到跡象 技術已經成熟，

that you've got a richer, sort of, higher bandwidth connection, if you like,

讓你有足夠的…… 例如，更高的頻寬……

between like external electronics and a brain

用以連結外部的電子設備及大腦，

than has been possible before?

突破以往的限制嗎？

馬：是的。

EM: Yeah.

I mean, the fundamental principles of reading neurons,

其實，讀取神經元的基本原則，

sort of doing read-write on neurons with tiny electrodes,

像是用微小的電極對神經元 進行讀取及寫入，

have been demonstrated for decades.

已經有數十年的例證。

So it's not like the concept is new.

所以這並非全新的概念。

The problem is that there is no product that works well

問題是做不出來好的產品引人購買，

that you can go and buy.

So it's all sort of, in research labs.

所以，始終限制於實驗室範疇。

And it's like some cords sticking out of your head.

有點像頭上冒出一堆電線，

And it's quite gruesome, and it's really ...

真的有點令人毛骨悚然。

There's no good product that actually does a good job

市場上沒有具有功能性， 又有高頻寬、安全的商品──

and is high-bandwidth and safe

and something actually that you could buy and would want to buy.

讓人購買或有意願想買。

But the way to think of the Neuralink device

至於 Neuralink 的裝置，

is kind of like a Fitbit or an Apple Watch.

應該被視為類似 Fitbit 或 Apple 手錶。

That's where we take out sort of a small section of skull

我們將頭骨切出一小部分

about the size of a quarter,

約 25 分硬幣的大小，

replace that with what,

然後在那個位置放進……

in many ways really is very much like a Fitbit, Apple Watch

有點像是……

一個跟 Fitbi 或 Apple 智慧手錶之類的東西，

or some kind of smart watch thing.

But with tiny, tiny wires,

可是其中的線路非常微細，

very, very tiny wires.

Wires so tiny, it’s hard to even see them.

細小到幾乎看不見。

And it's very important to have very tiny wires

線路的微小是重要的關鍵，

so that when they’re implanted, they don’t damage the brain.

植入後才不會損害大腦。

CA: How far are you from putting these into humans?

安：現在離人體試驗還有多久？

馬：我們已向 FDA 提出申請，

EM: Well, we have put in our FDA application

to aspirationally do the first human implant this year.

希望今年能進行首次人體植入。

CA: The first uses will be for neurological injuries

安：一剛開始會用於各種神經損傷，

of different kinds.

But rolling the clock forward

但若將時鐘撥快到

and imagining when people are actually using these

人們能實際運用這些裝置強化自身、

for their own enhancement, let's say,

強化世界的一天，

and for the enhancement of the world,

how clear are you in your mind

你是否很清楚

as to what it will feel like to have one of these inside your head?

一旦腦部多了這裝置後的感覺是如何？

EM: Well, I do want to emphasize we're at an early stage.

馬：我得聲明我們還處於初期。

And so it really will be many years before we have

而且真的還要許多年

anything approximating a high-bandwidth neural interface

才能做出相當於寬頻神經的介面，

that allows for AI-human symbiosis.

之後才能談人機一體。

For many years, we will just be solving brain injuries and spinal injuries.

在那之前，應該就是專注在 解決腦損和脊椎損傷，

For probably a decade.

大概至少要十年吧。

This is not something that will suddenly one day

全腦介面不是一蹴而就的科技。

it will have this incredible sort of whole brain interface.

It's going to be, like I said,

而是，就像我說的，

at least a decade of really just solving brain injuries

至少得先花十年時間， 專注在解決腦和脊椎損傷。

and spinal injuries.

And really, I think you can solve a very wide range of brain injuries,

我真的認為能解決 很多種腦損傷方面的問題，

including severe depression, morbid obesity, sleep,

包括：重度憂鬱症、 病態性肥胖、睡眠障礙、

或者甚至精神分裂症，

potentially schizophrenia,

like, a lot of things that cause great stress to people.

那些對人造成高度壓力的等等問題，

Restoring memory in older people.

還包括恢復老年人的記憶。

CA: If you can pull that off, that's the app I will sign up for.

安：若這個 App 真做出來， 我一定登記下載。

馬：當然。

EM: Absolutely.

CA: Please hurry. (Laughs)

安：請快點。（笑聲）

EM: I mean, the emails that we get at Neuralink are heartbreaking.

馬：我們在 Neuralink 常收到令人傷心的電子郵件，

I mean, they'll send us just tragic, you know,

內容聽起來簡直像悲劇，

where someone was sort of, in the prime of life

例如一個年輕力盛的人 因為摩托車事故、

and they had an accident on a motorcycle

and someone who's 25, you know, can't even feed themselves.

才 25 歲，卻無法自行進食，

And this is something we could fix.

而這是我們能幫忙解決的問題。

CA: But you have said that AI is one of the things you're most worried about

安：但你說過 AI 是你最擔心的事物之一，

而 Neuralink 則可能是 人類不落後 AI 的方法之一…

and that Neuralink may be one of the ways

where we can keep abreast of it.

EM: Yeah, there's the short-term thing,

馬：是的，我們的短期目標

which I think is helpful on an individual human level with injuries.

我想應該是幫助受傷的人。

And then the long-term thing is an attempt

而長期目標則是嘗試去處理

to address the civilizational risk of AI

AI 對文明的潛在風險，

by bringing digital intelligence

縮短人類文明與數位智慧間的距離。

and biological intelligence closer together.

I mean, if you think of how the brain works today,

你想想大腦的運作方式，

there are really two layers to the brain.

大腦可分為兩層： 邊緣系統和皮質。

There's the limbic system and the cortex.

You've got the kind of, animal brain where --

比較有趣的是 類似動物那部分的大腦──

it’s kind of like the fun part, really.

CA: It's where most of Twitter operates, by the way.

安：順道一提，就是絕大部分 Twitter 用的那個腦區。

EM: I think Tim Urban said,

馬：Tim Urban 曾說過，

we’re like somebody, you know, stuck a computer on a monkey.

人類有點像是連上電腦的猴子。

You know, so we're like, if you gave a monkey a computer,

也就是說，猴子加上電腦 就相當於人類的大腦皮質。

that's our cortex.

But we still have a lot of monkey instincts.

其實我們還有很多猴子的原始本能，

Which we then try to rationalize as, no, it's not a monkey instinct.

卻試圖說服自己： 不，這不是猴子本能，

這重要性遠遠超過。

It’s something more important than that.

事實上，往往就是原始本能。

But it's often just really a monkey instinct.

人類就像是腦中裝了電腦的猴子。

We're just monkeys with a computer stuck in our brain.

But even though the cortex is sort of the smart,

話說回來，即使大腦皮質是有點聰明，

or the intelligent part of the brain,

或是說聰明、有思考能力的腦區，

the thinking part of the brain,

I've not yet met anyone who wants to delete their limbic system

我還未遇過任何人想刪除掉

or their cortex.

自己的邊緣系統或皮質。

大家都很樂意擁有這兩個腦區，

They're quite happy having both.

Everyone wants both parts of their brain.

沒有人會想放棄任何一部分。

And people really want their phones and their computers,

而人們對電話、電腦的渴求

which are really the tertiary, the third part of your intelligence.

彷彿它們代表了第三個腦區的智慧。

It's just that it's ...

Like the bandwidth,

目前的情況…… 這第三個腦層的傳輸速率很慢，

the rate of communication with that tertiary layer is slow.

And it's just a very tiny straw to this tertiary layer.

因為傳輸的頻寬狹窄得像是稻草那樣，

And we want to make that tiny straw a big highway.

而我們的目標是將稻草改為寬敞公路。

And I’m definitely not saying that this is going to solve everything.

我當然不是說這就會解決所有問題，

Or this is you know, it’s the only thing --

只是這麼做可能會有幫助。

it’s something that might be helpful.

And worst-case scenario,

最糟糕的情況下，

I think we solve some important brain injury,

我想我們至少能解決 一些重大的腦損傷、

spinal injury issues, and that's still a great outcome.

脊柱損傷之類的問題， 那也是很不錯的結果。

CA: Best-case scenario,

安：最好的情況下，

we may discover new human possibility, telepathy,

或許能發現新的人類潛能、心電感應，

you've spoken of, in a way, a connection with a loved one, you know,

你之前說過的，以某種方式 與所愛的人連接上，

full memory and much faster thought processing maybe.

完整的記憶、更快的思考程序

All these things.

等等的…，

It's very cool.

那很酷。

If AI were to take down Earth, we need a plan B.

而如果 AI 要佔領地球， 我們則需要 B 計劃。

Let's shift our attention to space.

讓我們把注意力轉移到太空。

We spoke last time at TED about reusability,

我們上次在 TED 談到可再用性，

and you had just demonstrated that spectacularly for the first time.

那時你們剛做出首次絕佳的示範。

Since then, you've gone on to build this monster rocket, Starship,

從此便開始打造巨型火箭「星艦」，

which kind of changes the rules of the game in spectacular ways.

同時在許多方面大舉改變了遊戲規則。

Tell us about Starship.

跟我們談談星艦。

EM: Starship is extremely fundamental.

馬：星艦是至關重要的。

So the holy grail of rocketry or space transport

火箭或太空運輸的終極目標是：

is full and rapid reusability.

完全且快速的重複使用，

This has never been achieved.

之前從未辦到。

The closest that anything has come is our Falcon 9 rocket,

最接近的是我們的獵鷹九號火箭，

where we are able to recover the first stage, the boost stage,

它在第一階段的助推器已能回收再用，

which is probably about 60 percent of the cost of the vehicle

那佔了每次發射火箭所需 設備成本的 60~70% 。

of the whole launch, maybe 70 percent.

And we've now done that over a hundred times.

目前我們已累積有上百次的經驗。

So with Starship, we will be recovering the entire thing.

至於星艦，我們將做到完全的回收，

Or at least that's the goal.

至少以此為目標。

CA: Right.

安：了解。

EM: And moreover, recovering it in such a way

馬：或許還能辦到 回收後立即重新投入飛行。

that it can be immediately re-flown.

Whereas with Falcon 9, we still need to do some amount of refurbishment

相對於獵鷹九號每次飛行前

我們仍需對推進器及整流罩 做相當的修整；

to the booster and to the fairing nose cone.

But with Starship, the design goal is immediate re-flight.

星艦的設計目標則是立即重飛。

So you just refill propellants and go again.

所以僅需補充推進燃料便能再發射，

And this is gigantic.

這是巨大的突破。

Just as it would be in any other mode of transport.

就像其他交通工具一樣。

CA: And the main design

安：而設計重點則是

is to basically take 100 plus people at a time,

能一次運載上百人，

plus a bunch of things that they need, to Mars.

還有他們所需的東西前往火星。

So, first of all, talk about that piece.

首先，講到這部分，

What is your latest timeline?

你目前的時程為何？

One, for the first time, a Starship goes to Mars,

一：星艦到火星的首航，

presumably without people, but just equipment.

應該只有設備，沒有載人。

Two, with people.

二：除了設備，也載了人。

Three, there’s sort of,

三：假設一次載了 100 人。

OK, 100 people at a time, let's go.

EM: Sure.

馬：好。

And just to put the cost thing into perspective,

從成本的角度來看，

the expected cost of Starship,

星艦的預估成本──

putting 100 tons into orbit,

在同樣載重 100 公噸 發射入軌道的情況下──

is significantly less than what it would have cost

遠比體型嬌小的獵鷹一號低許多。

or what it did cost to put our tiny Falcon 1 rocket into orbit.

Just as the cost of flying a 747 around the world

就如同 747 班機繞行地球 成本遠低於小飛機。

is less than the cost of a small airplane.

You know, a small airplane that was thrown away.

小飛機自然就被淘汰掉。

So it's really pretty mind-boggling that the giant thing costs less,

這的確令人難以置信： 龐然大物的成本比小型的還低。

way less than the small thing.

So it doesn't use exotic propellants

因為它所需的推進燃料並不稀奇，

or things that are difficult to obtain on Mars.

也不是火星上沒有的東西。

It uses methane as fuel,

它的燃料是甲烷，

and it's primarily oxygen, roughly 77-78 percent oxygen by weight.

其中主要是氧氣， 大約占總重的 77~78%。

And Mars has a CO2 atmosphere and has water ice,

而火星的大氣層是二氧化碳， 火星上有水冰，CO2 + H2O，

which is CO2 plus H2O, so you can make CH4, methane,

因此就能在火星上製造 甲烷 (CH4) 及氧 (O2)。

and O2, oxygen, on Mars.

CA: Presumably, one of the first tasks on Mars will be to create a fuel plant

安：所以，在火星的首要任務 或許是建立燃料工廠，

that can create the fuel for the return trips of many Starships.

以便製造眾多星艦回航的燃料。

EM: Yes.

馬：沒錯。

And actually, it's mostly going to be oxygen plants,

實際上，絕大部分會是氧氣工廠，

because it's 78 percent oxygen, 22 percent fuel.

因為星艦的燃料是 氧氣 78%，燃料 22%，

But the fuel is a simple fuel that is easy to create on Mars.

這很容易在火星上製造， 太陽系其他部分也是。

And in many other parts of the solar system.

So basically ...

所以基本上都是 推進式著陸，無須降落傘，

And it's all propulsive landing, no parachutes,

nothing thrown away.

也就沒有浪費資源。

It has a heat shield that’s capable of entering on Earth or Mars.

它的隔熱罩能安全進入地球或火星。

We can even potentially go to Venus.

說不定能去到金星，

but you don't want to go there.

但你不會想去那兒。

(Laughs)

（笑）

Venus is hell, almost literally.

說金星是地獄並不誇張，

But you could ...

除此之外，你也可以……

It's a generalized method of transport to anywhere in the solar system,

星艦會是太陽系的通用交通工具，

because the point at which you have propellant depo on Mars,

因為一旦火星上有了燃料劑倉庫，

you can then travel to the asteroid belt

便能前往小行星帶、

and to the moons of Jupiter and Saturn

木星的衛星、土星，

and ultimately anywhere in the solar system.

太陽系內的任何角落。

CA: But your main focus

安：但是目前你和 SpaceX 的重心仍然放在火星，

and SpaceX's main focus is still Mars.

That is the mission.

那是你們現在投注絕大心力的任務嗎？

That is where most of the effort will go?

還是你已經開始想像 更廣泛的應用方式？

Or are you actually imagining a much broader array of uses

even in the coming, you know,

或許就在未來的十年內，

the first decade or so of uses of this.

Where we could go, for example, to other places

我們能探索太陽系中的其他地方，

in the solar system to explore,

perhaps NASA wants to use the rocket for that reason.

那也許是 NASA 想要 使用星艦的原因？

EM: Yeah, NASA is planning to use a Starship to return to the moon,

馬：是的，NASA 計劃 使用星艦重返月球，

to return people to the moon.

讓人類重返月球，

And so we're very honored that NASA has chosen us to do this.

我們很榮幸被 NASA 選上。

But I'm saying it is a generalized --

但是星艦是個通用的解決方案，

it’s a general solution

to getting anywhere in the greater solar system.

能去到太陽系內任何角落，

It's not suitable for going to another star system,

不適合任何其他星系，

but it is a general solution for transport anywhere in the solar system.

就只適用於太陽系內。

CA: Before it can do any of that,

安：在那之前還得先證明 它能進入環繞地球的軌道。

it's got to demonstrate it can get into orbit, you know, around Earth.

What’s your latest advice on the timeline for that?

在這部分你有最新的時程嗎?

EM: It's looking promising for us to have an orbital launch attempt

馬：我們應該很有機會在 幾個月內進行軌道試射。

in a few months.

So we're actually integrating --

目前我們正在做…… 為第一次軌道飛行做準備，

will be integrating the engines into the booster

for the first orbital flight starting in about a week or two.

應該在一兩個星期內開始 將引擎整合入推進器中，

And the launch complex itself is ready to go.

而發射場早已就緒，隨時可用。

So assuming we get regulatory approval,

所以我想，一拿到批准，

I think we could have an orbital launch attempt within a few months.

我們應該能在幾個月內進行軌道試射。

CA: And a radical new technology like this

安：像這類先進的全新技術，

初期的嘗試應該風險性相當高。

presumably there is real risk on those early attempts.

馬：百分之百是的。

EM: Oh, 100 percent, yeah.

The joke I make all the time is that excitement is guaranteed.

就像我常開玩笑說：

不保證一定成功，但保證絕對刺激。

Success is not guaranteed, but excitement certainly is.

CA: But the last I saw on your timeline,

安：但是我最近看到， 你將原訂的時程延後了一些，

you've slightly put back the expected date

to put the first human on Mars till 2029, I want to say?

第一個人類上火星的計畫 延至 2029 年，對嗎？

EM: Yeah, I mean, so let's see.

馬：是的，這樣說好了：

I mean, we have built a production system for Starship,

我們已經建了一套星艦的生產系統，

so we're making a lot of ships and boosters.

開始大量製造發射載具和推進器。

CA: How many are you planning to make actually?

安：你目前計畫生產的數量是多少？

EM: Well, we're currently expecting to make a booster and a ship

馬：推進器和發射載具 目前預計的生產製造

roughly every, well, initially, roughly every couple of months,

一開始，粗略估計 大約每兩個月做一套，

and then hopefully by the end of this year, one every month.

希望在今年年底前 可提高到每個月一套，

So it's giant rockets, and a lot of them.

我們現在講的是大型火箭， 而且是大量生產，

Just talking in terms of rough orders of magnitude,

講到生產規模的大小，粗略來說：

in order to create a self-sustaining city on Mars,

要想在火星上打造 一座自給自足的城市，

I think you will need something on the order of a thousand ships.

我想大約需要一千艘的星艦。

And we just need a Helen of Sparta, I guess, on Mars.

之後火星就只欠一位斯巴達海倫公主。

CA: This is not in most people's heads, Elon.

安：多數人沒有這個概念，伊隆。

EM: The planet that launched 1,000 ships.

馬：發射一千艘星艦的星球。

CA: That's nice.

安：聽起來很好，

But this is not in most people's heads,

可是大多數人對你腦中的願景 是完全沒有概念的。

this picture that you have in your mind.

基本上是每兩年就有一次機會，

There's basically a two-year window,

你能很容易地飛到火星， 每兩年一次。

you can only really fly to Mars conveniently every two years.

You were picturing that during the 2030s,

你想像的是進入 2030 年代，

every couple of years,

每兩年，

something like 1,000 Starships take off,

就有上千艘星艦起飛，

each containing 100 or more people.

每艘載有上百人。

That picture is just completely mind-blowing to me.

光想像那個畫面就讓我震撼不已。

That sense of this armada of humans going to --

好像人類艦隊出發到某地的概念……

EM: It'll be like "Battlestar Galactica," the fleet departs.

馬：就像《星際大爭霸》 電影中的艦隊啟程。

CA: And you think that it can basically be funded by people

安：你覺得這能用集資來運作嗎？

spending maybe a couple hundred grand on a ticket to Mars?

一張去火星的票大約一、二十萬？

Is that price about where it has been?

這跟先前預估的差不多嗎？

EM: Well, I think if you say like,

馬：我想，前提應是──

what's required in order to get enough people and enough cargo to Mars

我們需要運送多少 人員和物資到火星上，

to build a self-sustaining city.

才夠打造一座自給自足的城市，

And it's where you have an intersection

而且得先找到交集：想去火星的人……

of sets of people who want to go,

because I think only a small percentage of humanity will want to go,

因為我想只有小部分人想去，

and can afford to go or get sponsorship in some manner.

同時又有能力負擔或能獲得贊助。

That intersection of sets, I think,

我想這樣的交集必需達到一百萬人，

needs to be a million people or something like that.

And so it’s what can a million people afford, or get sponsorship for,

所以得視這一百萬人能負擔 或獲得贊助的金額到哪……

because I think governments will also pay for it,

我想政府也會出錢，

and people can take out loans.

甚至人們可以貸款。

But I think at the point at which you say, OK, like,

可是我想接下來你就會說：

if moving to Mars costs are, for argument’s sake, $100,000,

假設去火星的票價是十萬美元，

then I think you know, almost anyone can work and save up

這代表幾乎人人都能工作、儲蓄、

and eventually have $100,000 and be able to go to Mars if they want.

存到十萬美元去火星， 如果他們有意願的話。

We want to make it available to anyone who wants to go.

我們想讓有意願者皆能成行。

It's very important to emphasize that Mars, especially in the beginning,

有個必須強調的重點是，

火星一剛開始絕不會是豪華的，

will not be luxurious.

It will be dangerous, cramped, difficult, hard work.

而是危險、擁擠、艱困、辛苦的。

It's kind of like that Shackleton ad for going to the Antarctic,

有點像薛克頓去南極的招募廣告，

which I think is actually not real, but it sounds real and it's cool.

我想那廣告是後人捏造的， 可是聽起來很真實也很酷。

It's sort of like, the sales pitch for going to Mars is,

火星行程的廣告詞可能有點類似：

"It's dangerous, it's cramped.

「充滿危險、擁擠不堪，

You might not make it back.

甚至一去不返。

It's difficult, it's hard work."

絕對的艱辛，絕對的困苦。」

That's the sales pitch.

這應該是火星行的廣告詞。

CA: Right.

安：沒錯，

But you will make history.

但你會留名千古。

EM: But it'll be glorious.

馬：同時絕對的光榮。

CA: So on that kind of launch rate you're talking about over two decades,

安：所以就你所說的發射率，

要達到一百萬人上火星 差不多要二十年。

you could get your million people to Mars, essentially.

Whose city is it?

那麼，那座城市屬於誰？

Is it NASA's city, is it SpaceX's city?

是 NASA 的城市 或是 SpaceX 的城市？

EM: It’s the people of Mars’ city.

馬：它屬於火星的全體市民。

The reason for this, I mean, I feel like why do this thing?

因為…，回歸事情的初衷，

I think this is important for maximizing

我認為延長人類文明極關重要。

the probable lifespan of humanity or consciousness.

Human civilization could come to an end for external reasons,

人類文明很可能因外在因素而終結，

like a giant meteor or super volcanoes or extreme climate change.

像是巨型彗星、超級火山、 或是極端氣候變遷，

Or World War III, or you know, any one of a number of reasons.

甚至第三次世界大戰，太多種可能性。

But the probable life span of civilizational consciousness

我們所知的文明意識的 生命週期很可能──

as we know it,

which we should really view as this very delicate thing,

它其實極其珍貴脆弱，

like a small candle in a vast darkness.

就像無垠黑暗中的一小盞燭光。

That is what appears to be the case.

目前看來的確如此。

We're in this vast darkness of space,

人類身處無垠的黑暗宇宙中，

and there's this little candle of consciousness

而我們這個文明意識的小小燭光，

that’s only really come about after 4.5 billion years,

耗費 45 億年後才得到，

and it could just go out.

而且隨時可能熄滅。

CA: I think that's powerful,

安：我認為這很有說服力，

and I think a lot of people will be inspired by that vision.

我想很多人將受此願景啟發。

And the reason you need the million people

而你之所以需要一百萬人，

is because there has to be enough people there

是因為必須要有足夠的人

to do everything that you need to survive.

去建立起維持生存的必要條件。

EM: Really, like the critical threshold is if the ships from Earth stop coming

馬：其實，真正的門檻是──

如果地球到火星的交通中斷了， 無論原因為何，

for any reason,

does the Mars City die out or not?

火星城市是存是滅？

And so we have to --

所以我們必須──

You know, people talk about like, the sort of, the great filters,

你有聽說過大過濾理論嗎？

the things that perhaps, you know,

還是費米悖論？外星人在哪裡？

we talk about the Fermi paradox, and where are the aliens?

Well maybe there are these various great filters

或許真有各種不同的大過濾層， 而外星人無法穿越，

that the aliens didn’t pass,

and so they eventually just ceased to exist.

所以最終沒能存活下來。

And one of the great filters is becoming a multi-planet species.

其中一個大過濾層 就是成為多行星物種，

So we want to pass that filter.

所以我們要能穿越這個過濾層。

And I'll be long-dead before this is, you know, a real thing,

只是等到此事成真，我早已作古了。

before it happens.

But I’d like to at least see us make great progress in this direction.

但我想要至少看到人類朝此方向邁進。

CA: Given how tortured the Earth is right now,

安：有鑒於地球現在遭受的摧殘，

how much we're beating each other up,

人類又是如何地內鬨，

shouldn't there be discussions going on

寄望於火星的人們是否應該思考：

with everyone who is dreaming about Mars to try to say,

we've got a once in a civilization's chance

這可能是人類文明存亡的唯一機會， 是否應該制定新規則？

to make some new rules here?

甚至應該有人帶頭討論這些議題，

Should someone be trying to lead those discussions

to figure out what it means for this to be the people of Mars' City?

畢竟事關所有未來火星市民？

馬：嗯，我認為最終 這將取決於火星人民，

EM: Well, I think ultimately

this will be up to the people of Mars to decide

how they want to rethink society.

由他們重新思考社會的定義。

當然難免有風險。

Yeah there’s certainly risk there.

And hopefully the people of Mars will be more enlightened

希望未來的火星人民 會更明智、不起內鬨。

and will not fight amongst each other too much.

I mean, I have some recommendations,

當然，我有一些建議，

which people of Mars may choose to listen to or not.

火星市民能選擇聽或不聽。

我會提倡一個比較直接的民主制度，

I would advocate for more of a direct democracy,

not a representative democracy,

而非代議制民主；

and laws that are short enough for people to understand.

制定簡短易懂的法律，

Where it is harder to create laws than to get rid of them.

讓立法過程嚴謹， 若需廢除則相對輕鬆。

CA: Coming back a bit nearer term,

安：回來談離現在近一點的事，

說一下星艦其他的發展機會吧。

I'd love you to just talk a bit about some of the other possibility space

that Starship seems to have created.

So given --

假如…… 一旦我們能發射 上百噸重的東西上軌道……

Suddenly we've got this ability to move 100 tons-plus into orbit.

So we've just launched the James Webb telescope,

最近剛剛發射的 詹姆斯•韋伯太空望遠鏡，

which is an incredible thing.

真的很了不起，不可思議！

It's unbelievable.

EM: Exquisite piece of technology.

馬：精湛的科技。

CA: Exquisite piece of technology.

安：精湛的科技無誤，

因為光是如何將其折疊 裝進火箭內就花了兩年，

But people spent two years trying to figure out how to fold up this thing.

這望遠鏡重達三噸。

It's a three-ton telescope.

馬：如果載具體積大一點就好辦多了。

EM: We can make it a lot easier if you’ve got more volume and mass.

CA: But let's ask a different question.

安：換個角度問，

Which is, how much more powerful a telescope could someone design

假設如果有人重新設計，

做一個專門搭配星艦 使用的望遠鏡，會更強嗎?

based on using Starship, for example?

EM: I mean, roughly, I'd say it's probably an order of magnitude more resolution.

馬：我覺得在解析度上 會有數量級的成長，

如果重量限制在一百噸、 體積約一千立方公尺的話，

If you've got 100 tons and a thousand cubic meters volume,

which is roughly what we have.

我們差不多能做到那個範圍。

CA: And what about other exploration through the solar system?

安：如果要探索太陽系其他處呢？ 例如，就你所知──

I mean, I'm you know --

EM: Europa is a big question mark.

馬：歐羅巴（木衛二）仍是個大謎團。

CA: Right, so there's an ocean there.

安：對，它上面有片冰海，

And what you really want to do is to drop a submarine into that ocean.

讓人很想弄艘潛艇探勘一下。

EM: Maybe there's like, some squid civilization,

馬：說不定歐羅巴的冰層下 存在著魷魚文明、頭足類文明，

cephalopod civilization under the ice of Europa.

那會很有趣。

That would be pretty interesting.

安：伊隆，你如果真的 弄一艘潛艇上去歐羅巴，

CA: I mean, Elon, if you could take a submarine to Europa

and we see pictures of this thing being devoured by a squid,

然後我們看到它被外星魷魚一口吞掉，

that would honestly be the happiest moment of my life.

那絕對會是我一生中最值得的一刻。

EM: Pretty wild, yeah.

馬：聽起來蠻瘋狂的。

CA: What other possibilities are out there?

安：還有其他的可能性嗎？

Like, it feels like if you're going to create a thousand of these things,

我是說，若你造了一千艘星艦，

they can only fly to Mars every two years.

可是它們每兩年才飛一趟火星。

What are they doing the rest of the time?

那剩下的時間能做什麼？

It feels like there's this explosion of possibility

感覺好像有無限的可能性

that I don't think people are really thinking about.

是大家目前還沒想到的。

馬：我不知道， 眼前還有很長的路要走。

EM: I don't know, we've certainly got a long way to go.

As you alluded to earlier, we still have to get to orbit.

如你先前所提， 我們還得先進入地球軌道。

And then after we get to orbit,

然後在成功進入軌道後，

we have to really prove out and refine full and rapid reusability.

還得確保做到全面且快速的回收複用，

那就得花上一點時間，

That'll take a moment.

But I do think we will solve this.

但我真的認為我們能辦到。

I'm highly confident we will solve this at this point.

現階段我有高度信心能得到解決方案。

安：你是否有過惡夢醒來──

CA: Do you ever wake up with the fear

that there's going to be this Hindenburg moment for SpaceX where ...

夢中 SpaceX 碰上 類似興登堡號空難事件...

EM: We've had many Hindenburg.

馬：我們已經有過很多次興登堡...

Well, we've never had Hindenburg moments with people, which is very important.

但所幸都是沒有載人的情形下，

差別很大。

Big difference.

We've blown up quite a few rockets.

我們已炸毀了好幾枚火箭，

So there's a whole compilation online that we put together

網路上有許多我們編製、 及他人製作的影片，

and others put together,

it's showing rockets are hard.

看了就知道火箭真的很困難。

I mean, the sheer amount of energy going through a rocket boggles the mind.

火箭所耗的能量之多，令人震撼。

So, you know, getting out of Earth's gravity well is difficult.

脫離地球的重力阱並不容易，

We have a strong gravity and a thick atmosphere.

我們有強大的地心引力 和厚厚的大氣層得穿透。

And Mars, which is less than 40 percent,

相較之下，火星的引力不到 40%，

it's like, 37 percent of Earth's gravity

大約地心引力的 37%，

and has a thin atmosphere.

大氣層也相對較薄，

The ship alone can go all the way

所以星艦能夠自己從火星回到地球，

from the surface of Mars to the surface of Earth.

Whereas getting to Mars requires a giant booster and orbital refilling.

從地球去火星需要推進器， 還得在軌道上補充燃料。

CA: So, Elon, as I think more about this incredible array of things

安：伊隆，對你所參與的 這一連串的偉大事業，

that you're involved with,

I keep seeing these synergies,

我越想就越覺得「 協作增效」

to use a horrible word,

between them.

能將它們彼此連接起來，例如：

You know, for example,

TESLA 的機器人 在火星上可能會很好用，

the robots you're building from Tesla could possibly be pretty handy on Mars,

doing some of the dangerous work and so forth.

拿他們去做一些危險的工作。

如此一來，你在火星上的城市

I mean, maybe there's a scenario where your city on Mars

doesn't need a million people,

就不需要一百萬個人，

it needs half a million people and half a million robots.

可能只需要五十萬人， 外加五十萬個機器人，

And that's a possibility.

這應該是一種可能性。

Maybe The Boring Company could play a role

The Boring Company 或許能幫忙打造地下居住空間。

helping create some of the subterranean dwelling spaces that you might need.

EM: Yeah.

馬：是的。

CA: Back on planet Earth,

安：回到地球上來，

it seems like a partnership between Boring Company and Tesla

Boring Company 也可以跟 TESLA 合夥，

could offer an unbelievable deal to a city

為城市提供前所未有的方案，

to say, we will create for you a 3D network of tunnels

像是打造一個 3D 的隧道網， 專供機器人計程車通行，

populated by robo-taxis

that will offer fast, low-cost transport to anyone.

一個快速低廉的大眾交通工具。

You know, full self-driving may or may not be done this year.

全自動駕駛有可能在今年實現，

And in some cities, like, somewhere like Mumbai,

可是有些城市，像是孟買，

I suspect won't be done for a decade.

我懷疑可能得等上十年。

EM: Some places are more challenging than others.

馬：有些地方是比較具挑戰性。

CA: But today, today, with what you've got,

安：但是，現在，以你目前的進度，

you could put a 3D network of tunnels under there.

你已經可以在地底建 3D 隧道網。

EM: Oh, if it’s just in a tunnel, that’s a solved problem.

馬：喔，那只是隧道， 那個技術已經解決了。

安：沒錯，所以全自動駕駛 也已經不是問題。

CA: Exactly, full self-driving is a solved problem.

To me, there’s amazing synergy there.

對我來說，那就是驚人的協作增效。

With Starship,

你知道格威尼·紹特韋爾說過 大約到 2028 年，

you know, Gwynne Shotwell talked about by 2028 having from city to city,

地球上城市與城市間的交通 有可能透過星艦來完成。

you know, transport on planet Earth.

EM: This is a real possibility.

馬：這的確有可能。

The fastest way to get from one place to another,

距離夠遠的話，兩地之間 最快的移動方式就是火箭，

if it's a long distance, is a rocket.

It's basically an ICBM.

基本上就像洲際導彈……

CA: But it has to land --

安：但它必須降落在……

Because it's an ICBM, it has to land probably offshore,

洲際彈道導彈必須採離岸降落，

because it's loud.

因為它的巨大聲響。

So why not have a tunnel that then connects to the city with Tesla?

何不用隧道搭配 TESLA 將城市與城市連結起來？

And Neuralink.

至於 Neuralink，

I mean, if you going to go to Mars

假設火星上能有某種感應 讓你和地球上的家人聯繫，

having a telepathic connection with loved ones back home,

even if there's a time delay...

即便時間有點落差……

EM: These are not intended to be connected, by the way.

馬：順道一提，這些並非設計的原意，

But there certainly could be some synergies, yeah.

但肯定能有協作增效的運用。

CA: Surely there is a growing argument

安：現在肯定有越來越多的聲浪，

that you should actually put all these things together

建議你將這一切整合成一間公司，

into one company

and just have a company devoted to creating a future

就一間公司努力打造 一個令人期待的未來，

that’s exciting,

and let a thousand flowers bloom.

讓百花齊放。

Have you been thinking about that?

你曾經考慮過嗎？

EM: I mean, it is tricky because Tesla is a publicly-traded company,

馬：我覺得會相當棘手， 首先 TESLA 是上市公司，

and the investor base of Tesla and SpaceX

而且 TESLA、SpaceX、 Boring Company

和 Neuralink 的 投資者也很不同。

and certainly Boring Company and Neuralink are quite different.

Boring Company and Neuralink are tiny companies.

Boring Company 和 Neuralink 很小。

CA: By comparison.

安：相比之下。

EM: Yeah, Tesla's got 110,000 people.

馬：是的，TESLA 有 11 萬名員工。

SpaceX I think is around 12,000 people.

SpaceX 我想大約一萬兩千人。

Boring Company and Neuralink are both under 200 people.

Boring Company、 Neuralink 都不到兩百人，

So they're little, tiny companies,

這兩個是非常小的公司，

but they will probably get bigger in the future.

或許有天會變大，我想應該會。

They will get bigger in the future.

It's not that easy to sort of combine these things.

但是要將這些公司整合起來並不容易。

CA: Traditionally, you have said that for SpaceX especially,

安：一直以來你始終說 你不希望 SpaceX 上市，

you wouldn't want it public,

因為投資大眾應該不會支持

because public investors wouldn't support the craziness of the idea

登陸火星之類的瘋狂想法。

of going to Mars or whatever.

EM: Yeah, making life multi-planetary

馬：因為人類成為多行星物種

is outside of the normal time horizon of Wall Street analysts.

不在華爾街分析師時間表內。

(Laughs)

（笑聲）

To say the least.

至少可以這麼說。

CA: I think something's changed, though.

安：不過我認為情況改變了。

What's changed is that Tesla is now so powerful and so big

現在的 TESLA 是 極具影響力的巨擘，

and throws off so much cash

投資之鉅已能將分散的資源串連起來。

that you actually could connect the dots here.

Just tell the public that x-billion dollars a year, whatever your number is,

只要你說一年需要幾十億，無論多少，

will be diverted to the Mars mission.

會被用在火星任務上，

I suspect you'd have massive interest in that company.

一定會引起高度的投資興趣，

And it might unlock a lot more possibility for you, no?

進而解鎖更多可能性，你不覺得嗎？

EM: I would like to give the public access to ownership of SpaceX,

馬：我也想開放給大眾 投資 SpaceX 的權力，

but I mean the thing that like,

the overhead associated with a public company is high.

但上市公司的營運費用很高。

I mean, as a public company, you're just constantly sued.

而且上市公司一天到晚被告，你得……

It does occupy like, a fair bit of ...

耗費很多時間精力去處理那些事情。

You know, time and effort to deal with these things.

CA: But you would still only have one public company, it would be bigger,

安：但是如果只有一間上市公司──

規模變大、可以做更多事，

and have more things going on.

But instead of being on four boards, you'd be on one.

還能將四個董事會濃縮成一個。

EM: I'm actually not even on the Neuralink or Boring Company boards.

馬：我其實也不是 Neuralink 或 Boring 的董事會成員，

我其實連 SpaceX 的 董事會議也不太參加。

And I don't really attend the SpaceX board meetings.

We only have two a year,

我們一年開兩次會，

and I just stop by and chat for an hour.

我通常就是路過跟大家聊約一個小時。

The board overhead for a public company is much higher.

上市公司的董事會費用只會更高。

CA: I think some investors probably worry about how your time is being split,

安：我想有些投資者 可能擔心你的時間分配，

and they might be excited by you know, that.

或許也很期待整合……

Anyway, I just woke up the other day

我幾天前突發奇想──

thinking, just, there are so many ways in which these things connect.

想到有太多種整合的方法。

And you know, just the simplicity of that mission,

但是，僅僅企業使命── 打造一個值得期待的未來──

of building a future that is worth getting excited about,

might appeal to an awful lot of people.

就可能吸引非常多的人。

Elon, you are reported by Forbes and everyone else as now, you know,

伊隆，現在所有人， 包括富比士都說你是世界首富。

the world's richest person.

EM: That’s not a sovereign.

馬：財富不等同於主權。

CA: (Laughs)

安：（笑聲）

EM: You know, I think it’s fair to say

馬：你知道，平心而論，

that if somebody is like, the king or de facto king of a country,

一個國家的國王， 無論是名義上還是實質上，

they're wealthier than I am.

都絕對比我富有。

CA: But it’s just harder to measure --

安：真的難以計算……

So $300 billion.

說三千億美元好了。

I mean, your net worth on any given day

你每天的身價可因股市 上漲或下跌幾十億，

is rising or falling by several billion dollars.

How insane is that?

這多瘋狂啊？

EM: It's bonkers, yeah.

馬：的確很瘋狂，沒錯。

CA: I mean, how do you handle that psychologically?

安：你的心境如何自處？

There aren't many people in the world who have to even think about that.

世上有此煩惱的人不多。

EM: I actually don't think about that too much.

馬：那個我其實沒有想太多。

But the thing that is actually more difficult

讓我想的越來越多的，

and that does make sleeping difficult

甚至影響到我睡眠的是──

is that, you know,

every good hour or even minute

即使只有一小時，甚至幾分鐘，

of thinking about Tesla and SpaceX

能讓我專注在思考 TESLA 和 SpaceX，

has such a big effect on the company

都會對公司產生很大的影響，

that I really try to work as much as possible,

這一點讓我想盡可能地工作──

you know, to the edge of sanity, basically.

幾近發瘋的邊緣。

Because you know, Tesla’s getting to the point where

因為 TESLA 可能在 今年年底達成的目標──

probably will get to the point later this year,

因此我能深思熟慮的每一分鐘

where every high-quality minute of thinking

is a million dollars impact on Tesla.

對 TESLA 造成的影響 就是幾百萬美金，

Which is insane.

真的很瘋狂。

嗯……基本上……

I mean, the basic, you know, if Tesla is doing, you know,

假設 TESLA每週賺二十億美金，

sort of $2 billion a week, let’s say, in revenue,

it’s sort of $300 million a day, seven days a week.

每週七天，平均下來大約一天三億……

You know, it's ...

CA: If you can change that by five percent in an hour’s brainstorm,

安：假設每一個小時的腦力激盪 能造成 5% 的影響，

that's a pretty valuable hour.

那可是非常「寶貴」的時間。

EM: I mean, there are many instances where a half-hour meeting,

馬：真的，有很多次 短短半小時的會議，

I was able to improve the financial outcome of the company

我就改善了公司的財務表現，

by $100 million in a half-hour meeting.

光半個小時就一億美元。

CA: There are many other people out there

安：也有許多人無法忍受億萬富翁，

who can't stand this world of billionaires.

Like, they are hugely offended by the notion

他們完全無法接受──

that an individual can have the same wealth as, say,

一個人的身價高於 世界底層十億多人的資產總額。

a billion or more of the world's poorest people.

EM: If they examine sort of --

馬：如果他們仔細審視…

I think there's some axiomatic flaws that are leading them to that conclusion.

就會知道自己被一些 理所當然的謬論誤導了。

For sure, it would be very problematic if I was consuming,

當然，如果我花費無度 的確會是個大問題──

比方說，每年花數百萬在個人消費上，

you know, billions of dollars a year in personal consumption.

But that is not the case.

但事實並非如此。

In fact, I don't even own a home right now.

實際上，我甚至沒有房子。

I'm literally staying at friends' places.

我幾乎可說是住在朋友家。

If I travel to the Bay Area,

若我去到灣區，

which is where most of Tesla engineering is,

TESLA 的絕大部分 工程研發所在，

I basically rotate through friends' spare bedrooms.

我基本上就是借住 朋友們多餘的空房間。

I don't have a yacht, I really don't take vacations.

我沒有遊艇、也不渡假，

It’s not as though my personal consumption is high.

所以我的個人消費並不高，

I mean, the one exception is a plane.

飛機是唯一的例外，

若不用飛機，我的工作時間就更少了。

But if I don't use the plane, then I have less hours to work.

CA: I mean, I personally think you have shown that you are mostly driven

安：我個人看到的是， 你背負著一個很深的道德責任感，

by really quite a deep sense of moral purpose.

Like, your attempts to solve the climate problem

像是你為氣候變遷做出的努力，

have been as powerful as anyone else on the planet that I'm aware of.

並不亞於其他深具影響力的人。

And I actually can't understand,

但是我真的無法理解

personally, I can't understand the fact

that you get all this criticism from the Left about,

左派人士對你的諸多批評：

"Oh, my God, he's so rich, that's disgusting."

「天啊，他真的有錢到令人噁心。」

When climate is their issue.

其中一些認同氣候議題的人，

Philanthropy is a topic that some people go to.

則訴諸於慈善工作。

Philanthropy is a hard topic.

慈善工作很不簡單。

How do you think about that?

你的看法是什麼？

EM: I think if you care about the reality of goodness

馬：我想如果你在乎善行的真實性，

instead of the perception of it, philanthropy is extremely difficult.

而非大眾的觀感， 那麼慈善工作是極其困難的。

SpaceX, Tesla, Neuralink and The Boring Company are philanthropy.

SpaceX、TESLA、Neuralink、 The Boring Company 都是慈善事業。

If you say philanthropy is love of humanity,

如果我們說慈善是出於對人類的愛，

they are philanthropy.

那這些都是慈善事業。

Tesla is accelerating sustainable energy.

TESLA 正在加速永續能源轉型。

This is a love -- philanthropy.

那是出於對人類的愛的善行。

SpaceX is trying to ensure the long-term survival of humanity

SpaceX 正在為人類轉型成 多行星物種的存續而努力──

with a multiple-planet species.

這也是出於對人類的愛。

That is love of humanity.

You know, Neuralink is trying to help solve brain injuries

Neuralink 協助解決腦損傷

and existential risk with AI.

和 AI 叛變的潛在生存危機，

Love of humanity.

也是愛人類的表現。

Boring Company is trying to solve traffic, which is hell for most people,

Boring Company 幫忙 解決困擾人的交通問題，

and that also is love of humanity.

這也是對人類的愛。

安：所以聽到那些不斷的負面評論，

CA: How upsetting is it to you

to hear this constant drumbeat of,

你會難過嗎？

"Billionaires, my God, Elon Musk, oh, my God?"

像是聽到：「天啊！ 億萬富翁馬斯克…」

Like, do you just shrug that off

你是不在乎還是覺得受傷？

or does it does it actually hurt?

EM: I mean, at this point, it's water off a duck's back.

馬：現在這些對我就像是耳邊風。

CA: Elon, I’d like to, as we wrap up now,

安：伊隆，訪談快到尾聲，

just pull the camera back and just think ...

我們來把鏡頭拉回來，

You’re a father now of seven surviving kids.

你現在是七個孩子的爸爸……

EM: Well, I mean, I'm trying to set a good example

馬：是，我正在樹立好榜樣，

because the birthrate on Earth is so low

因為現在全球的出生率太低，

that we're facing civilizational collapse

低到人類文明瀕臨崩潰的危機，

unless the birth rate returns to a sustainable level.

除非出生率能回到永續生存的水準。

CA: Yeah, you've talked about this a lot,

安：是的，你常談到：

人口減少是個大問題， 而人們並不清楚問題有多大。

that depopulation is a big problem,

and people don't understand how big a problem it is.

馬：人口不足是人類 文明最大的危機之一，

EM: Population collapse is one of the biggest threats

to the future of human civilization.

而這正在發生。

And that is what is going on right now.

安：是什麼力量讓你 日復一日從事你的工作？

CA: What drives you on a day-to-day basis to do what you do?

EM: I guess, like, I really want to make sure

馬：我想應該是我想確保 人類有美好的未來，

that there is a good future for humanity

and that we're on a path to understanding the nature of the universe,

同時也能開始理解： 宇宙的本質、生命的意義、

the meaning of life.

Why are we here, how did we get here?

人類從何而來？為何而來？

And in order to understand the nature of the universe

而為了理解宇宙的本質

and all these fundamental questions,

及所有這些重要的問題，

we must expand the scope and scale of consciousness.

我們必須擴大意識的範圍規模。

所以人類絕不能衰減或滅絕，

Certainly it must not diminish or go out.

Or we certainly won’t understand this.

否則我們便無從得知。

I would say I’ve been motivated by curiosity more than anything,

我會說我最大的動力來自好奇心，

and just desire to think about the future

希望能在想到未來時而不憂傷。

and not be sad, you know?

CA: And are you?

安：所以你呢？你不憂傷嗎？

Are you not sad?

EM: I'm sometimes sad,

馬：我有時會憂傷，

but mostly I'm feeling I guess

但最近，我對未來感到比較樂觀了。

relatively optimistic about the future these days.

There are certainly some big risks that humanity faces.

人類的確面臨巨大的挑戰。

而人口數不足我認為是件大事，

I think the population collapse is a really big deal,

that I wish more people would think about

我希望能有更多人關心，

because the birth rate is far below what's needed to sustain civilization

因為目前的出生率 遠低於人類文明存續所需。

at its current level.

And there's obviously ...

而且，我們顯然得對 氣候變遷有足夠的行動，

We need to take action on climate sustainability,

which is being done.

這已在進行中。

And we need to secure the future of consciousness

同時需透過進化為多行星物種， 確保人類的未來。

by being a multi-planet species.

We need to address --

我們需要解決的還有……

Essentially, it's important to take whatever actions we can think of

最重要的是採取所有 我們能想到的任何行動，

to address the existential risks that affect the future of consciousness.

幫忙解決人類文明的存續危機。

CA: There's a whole generation coming through

安：眼前有一整個的世代 明顯對未來感到憂傷，

who seem really sad about the future.

What would you say to them?

你會對他們說什麼？

EM: Well, I think if you want the future to be good, you must make it so.

馬：我會說，如果想要美好的未來， 你就必須身體力行，

Take action to make it good.

採取對它有利的行動，

And it will be.

那就有可能實現。

CA: Elon, thank you for all this time.

安：伊隆，謝謝你的寶貴時間，

That is a beautiful place to end.

以及一個完美的句點。

Thanks for all you're doing.

謝謝你所做的一切。

EM: You're welcome.

馬：不客氣。