How we're building the world's largest family tree | Yaniv Erlich

翻译人员: psjmz mz 校对人员: Yanyan Hong

People use the internet for various reasons.

人们因各种原因使用着互联网。

It turns out that one of the most popular categories of website

一种最受欢迎的网站

is something that people typically consume in private.

是人们常常私下浏览的东西。

It involves curiosity,

它涉及到好奇心，

non-insignificant levels of self-indulgence

无关自我放纵程度，

and is centered around recording the reproductive activities

并以记录他人的生殖记录

of other people.

为中心。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

Of course, I'm talking about genealogy --

当然，我讨论的是家谱学——

(Laughter)

（笑声）

the study of family history.

也就是对家庭历史的研究。

When it comes to detailing family history,

当说到详细的家族历史，

in every family, we have this person that is obsessed with genealogy.

在每个家庭中，我们都有 一个痴迷于家谱的人。

Let's call him Uncle Bernie.

我们姑且叫他伯尼叔叔吧。

Uncle Bernie is exactly the last person you want to sit next to

伯尼叔叔正是你在感恩节晚餐上，

in Thanksgiving dinner,

最不想坐在一起的人，

because he will bore you to death with peculiar details

因为他会用一些远古亲戚的奇特细节

about some ancient relatives.

把你烦死。

But as you know,

但正如你所知，

there is a scientific side for everything,

任何事物都有科学的一面，

and we found that Uncle Bernie's stories

我们发现伯尼叔叔的故事

have immense potential for biomedical research.

具有巨大的生物医学研究潜力。

We let Uncle Bernie and his fellow genealogists

我们让伯尼叔叔和他的家谱同行，

document their family trees through a genealogy website called geni.com.

通过族谱网站 geni.com 记录他们的家谱。

When users upload their trees to the website,

当用户上传他们的家谱树到网站时，

it scans their relatives,

网站会扫描他们的亲戚，

and if it finds matches to existing trees,

如果它发现匹配上现存的家谱树，

it merges the existing and the new tree together.

它会合并现存的和新的家谱树。

The result is that large family trees are created,

结果是超大的家族树创建起来了，

beyond the individual level of each genealogist.

超越了每个家谱学家的个人水平。

Now, by repeating this process with millions of people

现在，凭借着全球数百万人

all over the world,

不断重复这个过程，

we can crowdsource the construction of a family tree of all humankind.

我们可以众包全人类家谱树的建设。

Using this website,

使用这个网站，

we were able to connect 125 million people

我们能够在一颗家族树上连接

into a single family tree.

1.25 亿人。

I cannot draw the tree on the screens over here

我无法在这里的屏幕上画家谱树，

because they have less pixels

因为它们的像素比

than the number of people in this tree.

在这棵树上的人还少。

But here is an example of a subset of 6,000 individuals.

但这里有一个 6000 人的子集例子。

Each green node is a person.

每一个绿色的节点是一个人。

The red nodes represent marriages,

红色的节点代表婚姻，

and the connections represent parenthood.

连接代表亲子关系。

In the middle of this tree, you see the ancestors.

在这个树的中央是祖先。

And as we go to the periphery, you see the descendants.

外围是后代。

This tree has seven generations, approximately.

这棵树大约有 7 代。

Now, this is what happens when we increase the number of individuals

而这是当我们增加人数到 7 万人时

to 70,000 people --

的样子——

still a tiny subset of all the data that we have.

仍然是我们拥有的所有 数据集的一小部分。

Despite that, you can already see the formation of gigantic family trees

即便如此，你已经能够看到由许多远亲

with many very distant relatives.

组成的一棵巨大家谱树。

Thanks to the hard work of our genealogists,

感谢家谱学家的努力工作，

we can go back in time hundreds of years ago.

我们可以回到数百年前。

For example, here is Alexander Hamilton,

比如，这是亚历山大·汉密尔顿，

who was born in 1755.

他出生于 1755 年。

Alexander was the first US Secretary of the Treasury,

亚历山大是首任美国财政部长，

but mostly known today due to a popular Broadway musical.

但主要由于一部流行的百老汇 音乐剧而广为人知。

We found that Alexander has deeper connections in the showbiz industry.

我们发现亚历山大在娱乐圈 有更深厚的人脉。

In fact, he's a blood relative of ...

事实上，他是——

Kevin Bacon!

凯文·贝肯的血亲！

(Laughter)

（笑声）

Both of them are descendants of a lady from Scotland

他们都是13世纪一位来自

who lived in the 13th century.

苏格兰的女士的后代。

So you can say that Alexander Hamilton

所以你可以说亚历山大·汉密尔顿

is 35 degrees of Kevin Bacon genealogy.

是 35 度凯文·贝肯的宗谱。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

And our tree has millions of stories like that.

我们的家谱树有数百万类似的故事。

We invested significant efforts to validate the quality of our data.

我们投入了不小的工作 在验证数据的质量上。

Using DNA, we found that .3 percent of the mother-child connections in our data

使用DNA，我们发现我们 数据中有 0.3% 的母子关系

are wrong,

是错误的，

which could match the adoption rate in the US pre-Second World War.

这可能与二战前美国的收养率相当。

For the father's side,

父亲方面，

the news is not as good:

消息也并不乐观：

1.9 percent of the father-child connections in our data are wrong.

我们的数据中 1.9% 的 父子关系是错误的。

And I see some people smirk over here.

我看到有人在这儿讪笑。

It is what you think --

这是你们在想的——

there are many milkmen out there.

外面有很多挤牛奶的人。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

However, this 1.9 percent error rate in patrilineal connections

然而这 1.9% 的父子关系错误率

is not unique to our data.

不是我们数据独有的。

Previous studies found a similar error rate

早先使用临床级血统的研究

using clinical-grade pedigrees.

也发现了类似的错误率。

So the quality of our data is good,

所以我们的数据质量是良好的，

and that should not be a surprise.

并且这也不应该是个意外。

Our genealogists have a profound, vested interest

我们的系谱学家对正确记录

in correctly documenting their family history.

他们的家族史有着浓厚的兴趣。

We can leverage this data to learn quantitative information about humanity,

我们可以利用这些数据来 了解人类的定量信息，

for example, questions about demography.

比如，有关人口统计学的问题。

Here is a look at all our profiles on the map of the world.

这是我们的资料在世界地图上的样子。

Each pixel is a person that lived at some point.

每个像素代表一个生活在特定位置的人。

And since we have so much data,

由于我们有很多数据，

you can see the contours of many countries,

你可以看到很多国家的轮廓，

especially in the Western world.

尤其在西方世界。

In this clip, we stratified the map that I've showed you

在这个视频片段中， 我们把给你展示的地图

based on the year of births of individuals from 1400 to 1900,

根据 1400-1900 年出生 的人口进行分层，

and we compared it to known migration events.

并且跟已知的迁移事件比较。

The clip is going to show you that the deepest lineages in our data

这个视频将向你展示 我们数据中最深的血统，

go all the way back to the UK,

可以追溯到英国，

where they had better record keeping,

这里有更好的记录保存，

and then they spread along the routes of Western colonialism.

然后他们沿着西方殖民主义 的道路传播。

Let's watch this.

让我们来看看这个。

(Music)

（音乐）

[Year of birth: ]

【出生年份：】

[1492 - Columbus sails the ocean blue]

【1492 - 哥伦布蓝色海洋航行时期】

[1620 - Mayflower lands in Massachusetts]

【1620 - 五月花号在马萨诸塞州着陆】

[1652 - Dutch settle in South Africa]

【1652 - 荷兰人在南非定居】

[1788 - Great Britain penal transportation to Australia starts]

【1788 - 英国开始向澳大利亚 进行刑事流放】】

[1836 - First migrants use Oregon Trail]

【1836 - 第一批移民来到俄勒冈小道】

[all activity]

【所有活动】

I love this movie.

我爱这个视频。

Now, since these migration events are giving the context of families,

因为这些移民时间 提供了家庭的背景，

we can ask questions such as:

我们可以问诸如此类的问题：

What is the typical distance between the birth locations

丈夫和妻子出生地

of husbands and wives?

的特定距离是多少？

This distance plays a pivotal role in demography,

这一距离在人口统计学中 起着重要的作用，

because the patterns in which people migrate to form families

因为人们迁移形成家庭的模式

determine how genes spread in geographical areas.

决定了基因如何在地理位置上传播。

We analyzed this distance using our data,

我们使用我们的数据分析了这个距离，

and we found that in the old days,

我们发现在古时候，

people had it easy.

人们过得很轻松。

They just married someone in the village nearby.

他们只是跟村子附近的某人结婚。

But the Industrial Revolution really complicated our love life.

但工业革命复杂化了 我们的爱情生活。

And today, with affordable flights and online social media,

今天，凭着可负担的航班 和网络社交媒体，

people typically migrate more than 100 kilometers from their place of birth

人们通常从出生地迁移 100 多公里

to find their soul mate.

来寻找灵魂伴侣。

So now you might ask:

所以现在你可能会问：

OK, but who does the hard work of migrating from places to places

好吧，但是谁会卖力从一个地方 迁移到另一个地方

to form families?

去构建家庭呢？

Are these the males or the females?

是男人还是女人？

We used our data to address this question,

我们使用我们的数据解答了这个问题，

and at least in the last 300 years,

至少在过去 300 年中，

we found that the ladies do the hard work

我们发现女性从一个地方 迁移到另一个地方

of migrating from places to places to form families.

去构建家庭上是最辛苦的。

Now, these results are statistically significant,

这些结果在统计上很显著，

so you can take it as scientific fact that males are lazy.

所以你可以把男性懒惰当作科学事实。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

We can move from questions about demography

我们可以把问题从人口统计学开始

and ask questions about human health.

转向人类健康问题。

For example, we can ask

比如，我们可以问

to what extent genetic variations account for differences in life span

遗传变异能在多大程度上影响个体的

between individuals.

寿命差异。

Previous studies analyzed the correlation of longevity between twins

之前的研究通过分析 双胞胎寿命的相关性

to address this question.

来解答这个问题。

They estimated that the genetic variations account for

他们估计出遗传变异

about a quarter of the differences in life span between individuals.

对个体寿命差异的影响大约占 1/4。

But twins can be correlated due to so many reasons,

但双胞胎之间的关联有很多原因，

including various environmental effects

包括多样的环境影响

or a shared household.

或共同的家庭。

Large family trees give us the opportunity to analyze both close relatives,

庞大的家谱树给了我们分析这些近亲，

such as twins,

比如双胞胎，

all the way to distant relatives, even fourth cousins.

到远房亲戚， 甚至四代表亲这样的机会。

This way we can build robust models

这样我们可以构建稳健的模型，

that can tease apart the contribution of genetic variations

从环境因素中分离出

from environmental factors.

遗传变异的贡献来。

We conducted this analysis using our data,

我们使用数据执行了这个分析，

and we found that genetic variations explain only 15 percent

发现遗传变异只解释了 15% 的

of the differences in life span between individuals.

个体寿命差异。

That is five years, on average.

平均而言， 就是 5 年之差。

So genes matter less than what we thought before to life span.

所以基因对寿命的重要性 比我们之前想象的少。

And I find it great news,

我发现这是个好消息，

because it means that our actions can matter more.

因为这意味着我们的行动更为重要。

Smoking, for example, determines 10 years of our life expectancy --

举个例子，吸烟会影响 大约10年的预期寿命——

twice as much as what genetics determines.

是基因所能影响的两倍。

We can even have more surprising findings

随着我们从家谱树展开，

as we move from family trees

让我们的家谱学专家建档，

and we let our genealogists document and crowdsource DNA information.

并且众包DNA信息， 我们能有更多惊奇的发现。

And the results can be amazing.

结果将是惊人的。

It might be hard to imagine, but Uncle Bernie and his friends

可能令人难以想象， 伯尼叔叔和他的朋友

can create DNA forensic capabilities

能够创建 DNA 法医能力，

that even exceed what the FBI currently has.

甚至超过了 FBI 目前拥有的水平。

When you place the DNA on a large family tree,

当你把 DNA 放在一棵大的家谱树中，

you effectively create a beacon

你就有效地创造了一个照亮

that illuminates the hundreds of distant relatives

数百个远亲的灯塔，

that are all connected to the person that originated the DNA.

他们都与 DNA 的拥有者有联系。

By placing multiple beacons on a large family tree,

通过在一棵大的家谱树中 放置不同的灯塔，

you can now triangulate the DNA of an unknown person,

你现在可以对一个陌生人 的 DNA 进行三角测量，

the same way that the GPS system uses multiple satellites

就跟 GPS 系统利用不同的卫星

to find a location.

来定位一样。

The prime example of the power of this technique

这种技术威力一个的主要例子

is capturing the Golden State Killer,

是追捕“金州杀手”，

one of the most notorious criminals in the history of the US.

美国历史上最臭名昭著的罪犯之一。

The FBI had been searching for this person for over 40 years.

FBI 已经寻找这人超过 40 年。

They had his DNA,

他们有他的 DNA，

but he never showed up in any police database.

但他从未出现在警方的数据库中。

About a year ago, the FBI consulted a genetic genealogist,

大约一年前，FBI 咨询了 一位基因谱系学家，

and she suggested that they submit his DNA to a genealogy service

她建议他们提交他的 DNA 到可以定位远房亲戚

that can locate distant relatives.

的家谱服务平台上。

They did that,

FBI 这样做了，

and they found a third cousin of the Golden State Killer.

他们找到了金州杀手的第三代表亲。

They built a large family tree,

他们构建了一棵巨大的家谱树，

scanned the different branches of that tree,

扫描树上的不同分支，

until they found a profile that exactly matched

直到他们找到完美匹配

what they knew about the Golden State Killer.

他们所了解的金州杀手信息的人。

They obtained DNA from this person and found a perfect match

他们从这人身上取得 DNA 并发现

to the DNA they had in hand.

跟他们手上的 DNA 一致。

They arrested him and brought him to justice

过了这么些年，他们终于逮捕了他，

after all these years.

并绳之与法。

Since then, genetic genealogists have started working with

自那之后，基因谱系学家开始

local US law enforcement agencies

跟美国当地执法机构合作，

to use this technique in order to capture criminals.

使用这种技术来抓捕罪犯。

And only in the past six months,

仅仅在过去的 6 个月，

they were able to solve over 20 cold cases with this technique.

他们使用这个技术就破获了 超过 20 个铁证悬案。

Luckily, we have people like Uncle Bernie and his fellow genealogists

幸好，我们有这群人， 像伯尼叔叔和他的家谱学同行，

These are not amateurs with a self-serving hobby.

他们不只是业余爱好者。

These are citizen scientists with a deep passion to tell us who we are.

他们是满怀热情的公民科学家， 想要揭开我们所有人身份的秘密。

And they know that the past can hold a key to the future.

他们知道，过去是通向未来的钥匙。

Thank you very much.

谢谢大家。

(Applause)

（鼓掌）