How to build a company where the best ideas win | Ray Dalio

翻译人员: xiao gu 校对人员: Yolanda Zhang

Whether you like it or not,

不管你是否喜欢，

radical transparency and algorithmic decision-making is coming at you fast,

绝对透明和利用算法的 决策时代正在快速到来，

and it's going to change your life.

并且将改变你的生活。

That's because it's now easy to take algorithms

因为现在把算法嵌入到计算机中

and embed them into computers

十分容易，

and gather all that data that you're leaving on yourself

它能收集你所有的

all over the place,

私自保留的信息，

and know what you're like,

明白哪些是你需要的，

and then direct the computers to interact with you

然后引导计算机与你互动，

in ways that are better than most people can.

这比大部分人跟你 互动的效果好多了。

Well, that might sound scary.

这听上去似乎有点吓人。

I've been doing this for a long time and I have found it to be wonderful.

不过我这么做已经很久了， 发现其实很管用。

My objective has been to have meaningful work

我的目标是做有意义的工作，

and meaningful relationships with the people I work with,

与同事建立有意义的工作关系，

and I've learned that I couldn't have that

我知道，如果没有

unless I had that radical transparency and that algorithmic decision-making.

绝对透明和算法决策的支持， 这一切都不会发生。

I want to show you why that is,

我想告诉你们为什么会这样，

I want to show you how it works.

并展示它是如何运作的。

And I warn you that some of the things that I'm going to show you

接下来向你们展示的

也许有点不同寻常。

probably are a little bit shocking.

Since I was a kid, I've had a terrible rote memory.

当我还是小孩子时， 我憎恶死记硬背。

And I didn't like following instructions,

不喜欢按部就班，

I was no good at following instructions.

也不擅长墨守成规。

But I loved to figure out how things worked for myself.

我喜欢用自己的方式来理解事物。

When I was 12,

我12岁的时候，

I hated school but I fell in love with trading the markets.

讨厌上学，但爱上了市场交易。

I caddied at the time,

我当时是个小球童，

earned about five dollars a bag.

服务一包球得5美元。

And I took my caddying money, and I put it in the stock market.

我把自己的球童收入投入了股市。

And that was just because the stock market was hot at the time.

因为那个时候股市很火爆。

And the first company I bought

我买的第一个公司股票是

was a company by the name of Northeast Airlines.

一家叫做东北航空的公司。

Northeast Airlines was the only company I heard of

东北航空是当时我所知道

that was selling for less than five dollars a share.

唯一的单股价格低于 5 美元的。

(Laughter)

（笑）

And I figured I could buy more shares,

我计划买更多的股票，

and if it went up, I'd make more money.

如果上涨，就可以赚更多的钱。

So, it was a dumb strategy, right?

这个策略听上去挺傻的吧？

But I tripled my money,

不过我赚了3倍的钱，

and I tripled my money because I got lucky.

因为当时运气不错。

The company was about to go bankrupt,

那家公司快破产了，

but some other company acquired it,

最后被其他公司收购，

and I tripled my money.

我就翻了3倍。

And I was hooked.

从此就一发不可收拾。

And I thought, "This game is easy."

我在想： “这个游戏真简单。”

With time,

后来，

I learned this game is anything but easy.

我才明白这个游戏一点也不简单。

In order to be an effective investor,

要成为一个成功的投资人，

one has to bet against the consensus

要和市场对赌，

and be right.

还得成功。

And it's not easy to bet against the consensus and be right.

要做到这一点很难。

One has to bet against the consensus and be right

之所以难，

because the consensus is built into the price.

是因为股票价格是由市场决定的。

And in order to be an entrepreneur,

不过要成为一个

a successful entrepreneur,

成功的企业家，

one has to bet against the consensus and be right.

你必须与市场对赌并且赢得胜利。

I had to be an entrepreneur and an investor --

我是个企业家，也是一个投资家，

and what goes along with that is making a lot of painful mistakes.

扮演这种角色的代价就是 获得了很多惨痛的教训。

So I made a lot of painful mistakes,

我的确得到了很多教训，

and with time,

随后，

my attitude about those mistakes began to change.

我对于犯错的态度转变了。

I began to think of them as puzzles.

我开始意识到它们是谜团。

That if I could solve the puzzles,

如果我能解开这些谜团，

they would give me gems.

就会获得巨大的回报。

And the puzzles were:

这个谜团就是：

What would I do differently in the future so I wouldn't make that painful mistake?

如何防止我在将来不犯大错？

And the gems were principles

而要获得回报的原则就是

that I would then write down so I would remember them

记录并回忆它们，

that would help me in the future.

这对将来的决策很有帮助。

And because I wrote them down so clearly,

因为我清楚地做了详细的记录，

I could then --

最终——

eventually discovered --

我发现了——

I could then embed them into algorithms.

我能将这些方法嵌入算法中。

And those algorithms would be embedded in computers,

再把算法嵌入计算机中，

and the computers would make decisions along with me;

计算机就能协助我做决定；

and so in parallel, we would make these decisions.

同时，我们也能制定出最后的决策。

And I could see how those decisions then compared with my own decisions,

和我自己做的决策对比之后，

and I could see that those decisions were a lot better.

我发现这些决策要好很多。

And that was because the computer could make decisions much faster,

因为计算机做决策更快，

it could process a lot more information

能处理更多信息，

and it can process decisions much more --

几乎不带有任何情绪地

less emotionally.

处理更多决策。

So it radically improved my decision-making.

于是它彻底提高了 我的决策正确率。

Eight years after I started Bridgewater,

在创建了Bridgewater 8年后，

I had my greatest failure,

我犯下了人生中最大的错误，

my greatest mistake.

经历了最大的一次失败。

It was late 1970s,

那是1970年代末，

I was 34 years old,

我当时34岁，

and I had calculated that American banks

计算出美国银行

had lent much more money to emerging countries

出借了太多资金给新兴国家，

than those countries were going to be able to pay back

而不是那些有能力还款的国家。

and that we would have the greatest debt crisis

这会导致自大萧条后

since the Great Depression.

最大的债务危机。

And with it, an economic crisis

随后，就会出现经济危机，

and a big bear market in stocks.

股市走熊。

It was a controversial view at the time.

这个观点当时是有争议的，

People thought it was kind of a crazy point of view.

人们认为我的想法太疯狂。

But in August 1982,

但是在1982年8月，

Mexico defaulted on its debt,

墨西哥违约，

and a number of other countries followed.

其他一系列国家跟进，

And we had the greatest debt crisis since the Great Depression.

的确出现了自大萧条后 最严重的债务危机。

And because I had anticipated that,

因为我早先的预测，

I was asked to testify to Congress and appear on "Wall Street Week,"

我被国会要求出席 “华尔街之周”的听证会，

which was the show of the time.

当时备受关注。

Just to give you a flavor of that, I've got a clip here,

我裁剪了一小短现场录像，

and you'll see me in there.

大家可以看到我。

(Video) Mr. Chairman, Mr. Mitchell,

（录像）主席先生，米切尔先生，

it's a great pleasure and a great honor to be able to appear before you

很荣幸出席今天的会议，

in examination with what is going wrong with our economy.

检查我们的经济哪里出了问题。

The economy is now flat --

经济增长已经停滞——

teetering on the brink of failure.

在失败的边缘摇摇欲坠。

Martin Zweig: You were recently quoted in an article.

Martin Zweig: 最近有一篇文章提到了你，

你说过：“我对此深信不疑，

You said, "I can say this with absolute certainty

because I know how markets work."

我知道市场是如何运作的。”

Ray Dalio: I can say with absolute certainty

Ray Dalio： 我能毫不犹豫的说，

that if you look at the liquidity base

如果你们在公司和整个世界范围内

in the corporations and the world as a whole,

观察流动性基础，

that there's such reduced level of liquidity

流动性大幅度减少，

that you can't return to an era of stagflation."

你不可能回到一个滞胀的时代。“

I look at that now, I think, "What an arrogant jerk!"

现在回过头来看， 我想的是：“多么自负的傻瓜！”

(Laughter)

（笑）

I was so arrogant, and I was so wrong.

我太骄傲了，而且大错特错。

I mean, while the debt crisis happened,

我的意思是，尽管债务危机发生了，

the stock market and the economy went up rather than going down,

股市和经济却都在上涨，而非下降，

and I lost so much money for myself and for my clients

我损失了自己和客户的大量资金，

that I had to shut down my operation pretty much,

不得不关闭整个公司，

I had to let almost everybody go.

遣散所有的员工。

And these were like extended family,

这是一个延伸的大家庭，

I was heartbroken.

我的心都要碎了。

And I had lost so much money

我本人也损失惨重，

that I had to borrow 4,000 dollars from my dad

不得不向我父亲借了4000美元

to help to pay my family bills.

来支付家庭的日常开支。

It was one of the most painful experiences of my life ...

这是我人生经历中 最惨痛的一次经历。。。

but it turned out to be one of the greatest experiences of my life

同时也成为我人生经历中 最珍贵的一次经历，

because it changed my attitude about decision-making.

因为它改变了我对决策的态度。

Rather than thinking, "I'm right,"

不再去想，“我是正确的”，

I started to ask myself,

我现在开始询问自己

"How do I know I'm right?"

“你如何才知道自己是正确的？”

I gained a humility that I needed

为了平衡我的鲁莽，

in order to balance my audacity.

我学会了什么是谦卑。

I wanted to find the smartest people who would disagree with me

我需要找到最聪明的人来反驳我，

to try to understand their perspective

以此来理解他们的观点，

or to have them stress test my perspective.

或者来测试我的观点。

I wanted to make an idea meritocracy.

我称之为“精英对话”。

In other words,

换个说法是，

not an autocracy in which I would lead and others would follow

不利用自己的权利来带领其他人，

and not a democracy in which everybody's points of view were equally valued,

也不是每个人都能 平等说出自己观点的民主氛围，

but I wanted to have an idea meritocracy in which the best ideas would win out.

而是用精英对话的方式， 来得到最好的点子。

And in order to do that,

为了实现这一点，

I realized that we would need radical truthfulness

我意识到公司需要完全的信任，

and radical transparency.

完全的透明，

What I mean by radical truthfulness and radical transparency

我指的绝对诚实和绝对透明，

is people needed to say what they really believed

是指人们能表达出自己的真实想法，

and to see everything.

能看得更加全面。

And we literally tape almost all conversations

我们会记录下所有的对话，

and let everybody see everything,

让每个人都能看清一切，

because if we didn't do that,

如果我们不这么做，

we couldn't really have an idea meritocracy.

就不能实现真正的精英管理。

In order to have an idea meritocracy,

为了达到这个目的，

we have let people speak and say what they want.

我们需要让人们自由表达。

Just to give you an example,

这里有个例子，

this is an email from Jim Haskel --

这是一封Jim Haskel 写给我的电子邮件——

somebody who works for me --

Jim 是我的员工——

and this was available to everybody in the company.

公司中任何人都可以这样做。

"Ray, you deserve a 'D-'

“Ray，针对你今天在会上的表现，

for your performance today in the meeting ...

只能给你评个D-，

you did not prepare at all well

你根本没有做好准备，

because there is no way you could have been that disorganized."

从来没有哪次会议 组织得这么混乱。“

Isn't that great?

是不是很棒？

(Laughter)

（笑）

That's great.

的确很棒。

It's great because, first of all, I needed feedback like that.

因为首先，我需要这样的反馈。

I need feedback like that.

我需要像这样的反馈。

And it's great because if I don't let Jim, and people like Jim,

如果我不支持Jim或者其他人

to express their points of view,

自由表达自己的观点，

our relationship wouldn't be the same.

我们的关系就会变得不同了。

And if I didn't make that public for everybody to see,

如果我不让每个人都能看见，

we wouldn't have an idea meritocracy.

这就不是精英对话。

So for that last 25 years that's how we've been operating.

我们这样做了25年，

We've been operating with this radical transparency

保持绝对透明，

and then collecting these principles,

凭着这样的原则，

largely from making mistakes,

避免了重大错误，

and then embedding those principles into algorithms.

于是我们把这个原则植入了算法中。

And then those algorithms provide --

算法向我们证明了——

we're following the algorithms

我们可以跟随算法做决策，

in parallel with our thinking.

同时也运用我们自己的思考。

That has been how we've run the investment business,

这就是我们如何经营投资公司，

and it's how we also deal with the people management.

以及如何管理员工。

In order to give you a glimmer into what this looks like,

为了让你们更好的理解我的意思，

I'd like to take you into a meeting

我想邀请大家参加一个会议，

and introduce you to a tool of ours called the "Dot Collector"

看看我们的工具“网络收集者”

that helps us do this.

是如何帮助我们完成目标的。

A week after the US election,

在美国大选一周后，

our research team held a meeting

我们的调查团队开了个会，

to discuss what a Trump presidency would mean for the US economy.

讨论特朗普当选 对美国经济意味着什么。

Naturally, people had different opinions on the matter

很自然的，人们对此有很多不同观点，

and how we were approaching the discussion.

我们如何进行这次讨论呢？

The "Dot Collector" collects these views.

“网络收集器”收集观点

It has a list of a few dozen attributes,

其中列举了几十个属性，

so whenever somebody thinks something about another person's thinking,

只要思考其他人的想法

it's easy for them to convey their assessment;

就很容易交换评价。

they simply note the attribute and provide a rating from one to 10.

属性提供从1-10的评价系统。

For example, as the meeting began,

比如，会议开始时，

a researcher named Jen rated me a three --

调查者Jen给我的评分是3——

in other words, badly --

换句话说，很糟——

(Laughter)

（笑）

for not showing a good balance of open-mindedness and assertiveness.

在开放和自信的 平衡方面做得不好。

As the meeting transpired,

随着会议继续进行，

Jen's assessments of people added up like this.

Jen也对其他人也会做出评价，

Others in the room have different opinions.

屋里其他人有各自不同的观点。

That's normal.

这很正常。

Different people are always going to have different opinions.

不同人总有不同观点，

And who knows who's right?

怎么分辨谁对谁错呢？

Let's look at just what people thought about how I was doing.

只关注一下人们对我的评价。

Some people thought I did well,

一些人认为我做的很好，

others, poorly.

另外一些人认为很糟。

With each of these views,

依据不同的观点，

we can explore the thinking behind the numbers.

我们能探索数字背后的原因。

Here's what Jen and Larry said.

这是Jen和Larry说的。

Note that everyone gets to express their thinking,

每人都有机会表达想法，

including their critical thinking,

包括他们的评判式思考，

regardless of their position in the company.

无论他们在公司里的地位如何。

Jen, who's 24 years old and right out of college,

Jen，24岁，刚从学校毕业，

can tell me, the CEO, that I'm approaching things terribly.

她能告诉我，他们的CEO， 在解决问题方面很糟。

This tool helps people both express their opinions

这个工具帮助人们自由表达，

and then separate themselves from their opinions

把观点和个人分离开，

to see things from a higher level.

从更高层次看问题。

When Jen and others shift their attentions from inputting their own opinions

当Jen和其他人交换观点

to looking down on the whole screen,

并纵览整个屏幕，

their perspective changes.

他们的观念就会发生转变。

They see their own opinions as just one of many

他们看出自己代表的 仅仅是其中的一部分观点，

and naturally start asking themselves,

自然会开始自问，

"How do I know my opinion is right?"

“我怎么知道我的观点是正确的呢？”

That shift in perspective is like going from seeing in one dimension

观点的转变就像只从一个维度

to seeing in multiple dimensions.

看多维空间。

And it shifts the conversation from arguing over our opinions

谈话从争论各种观点，转变成了

to figuring out objective criteria for determining which opinions are best.

找到客观标准来决定 哪个观点最好。

Behind the "Dot Collector" is a computer that is watching.

在“网络收集器”的背后， 计算机正在观察

It watches what all these people are thinking

所有这些人在想什么，

and it correlates that with how they think.

并与他们如何思考相关联。

And it communicates advice back to each of them based on that.

基于这些谈话反馈，

Then it draws the data from all the meetings

从所有会议中抽取数据，

to create a pointilist painting of what people are like

对人们的特点和他们的想法

and how they think.

做出数据点图。

And it does that guided by algorithms.

这个过程由算法引导，

Knowing what people are like helps to match them better with their jobs.

了解人们的特点可以 帮助他们更好的与工作进行匹配。

For example,

例如，

创造性思想家不太靠谱，

a creative thinker who is unreliable

might be matched up with someone who's reliable but not creative.

也许可以匹配一个靠谱 但是无创造性的人。

Knowing what people are like also allows us to decide

知道其他人的想法， 也让我们能够决定

what responsibilities to give them

应该赋予他们怎样的责任，

and to weigh our decisions based on people's merits.

并基于人们的优势 来权衡我们的决策。

We call it their believability.

我们称之为他们的“可依赖度”。

Here's an example of a vote that we took

这里有个我们投票的例子，

where the majority of people felt one way ...

大部分人同意一个方案——

but when we weighed the views based on people's merits,

但当我们根据各自优势来权衡时，

the answer was completely different.

答案就不同了。

This process allows us to make decisions not based on democracy,

这个过程让我们做决定的时候 不再基于民主，

not based on autocracy,

不基于专制，

but based on algorithms that take people's believability into consideration.

仅基于考虑人们可依赖度的算法。

Yup, we really do this.

没错，我们就是这样做的。

(Laughter)

（笑）

We do it because it eliminates

因为这消除了

what I believe to be one of the greatest tragedies of mankind,

人性中最大的悲剧，

and that is people arrogantly,

就是人类的自大、

naïvely holding opinions in their minds that are wrong,

天真，自以为是的 持有错误的观点，

and acting on them,

并执行它，

and not putting them out there to stress test them.

而不放在压力环境中进行测试，

And that's a tragedy.

就会产生悲剧。

And we do it because it elevates ourselves above our own opinions

我们相信这样做会提升自己，

so that we start to see things through everybody's eyes,

开始从别人眼中看问题，

and we see things collectively.

用集体方式的看待问题。

Collective decision-making is so much better than individual decision-making

如果运用良好，集体决策比个人决策

if it's done well.

要好很多。

It's been the secret sauce behind our success.

这就是我们成功背后的秘密武器。

It's why we've made more money for our clients

正因为如此，对比其他对冲基金公司，

than any other hedge fund in existence

我们可以为客户赚更多钱。

and made money 23 out of the last 26 years.

26年中有23年都是如此。

So what's the problem with being radically truthful

那么绝对信任和绝对透明的

and radically transparent with each other?

问题是什么呢？

People say it's emotionally difficult.

人们认为从感情上很难接受。

Critics say it's a formula for a brutal work environment.

有批评家说这是 严酷工作环境的模式。

Neuroscientists tell me it has to do with how are brains are prewired.

神经科学家告诉我， 这与大脑如何进行预先假设有关。

There's a part of our brain that would like to know our mistakes

一部分大脑知道我们会犯错，

and like to look at our weaknesses so we could do better.

直面缺点会让后我们变得更好。

I'm told that that's the prefrontal cortex.

这是前额皮层做的事情。

And then there's a part of our brain which views all of this as attacks.

大脑的另外一部分 会将这些当成抨击的观点。

I'm told that that's the amygdala.

这是在大脑杏仁核区域发生的。

In other words, there are two you's inside you:

换句话说，有2个人在你体内，

there's an emotional you

一个极富情绪，

and there's an intellectual you,

另一个很理智，

and often they're at odds,

他们彼此常常互不相容，

and often they work against you.

时常对抗你。

It's been our experience that we can win this battle.

我们的经验表明， 我们可以赢得这场战争，

We win it as a group.

以团队的方式。

It takes about 18 months typically

通常需要18个月

to find that most people prefer operating this way,

去发现大部分人喜欢的方式，

with this radical transparency

以完全透明，

than to be operating in a more opaque environment.

而非隐蔽的环境中 进行公司改造。

There's not politics, there's not the brutality of --

没有政治，没有野蛮——

you know, all of that hidden, behind-the-scenes --

也就是没有任何暗箱操作——

there's an idea meritocracy where people can speak up.

人们可以畅所欲言的表达。

And that's been great.

这样很好。

It's given us more effective work,

给我们更有效的工作，

and it's given us more effective relationships.

以及更有效的人际关系。

But it's not for everybody.

但这并不适用于任何人。

We found something like 25 or 30 percent of the population

我们发现有25%-30%的人

it's just not for.

不适合这样做。

And by the way,

顺便提一句，

when I say radical transparency,

当我说绝对透明，

I'm not saying transparency about everything.

不是指对任何事情都绝对透明。

I mean, you don't have to tell somebody that their bald spot is growing

你不需要告诉别人 他们秃顶越来越严重，

or their baby's ugly.

或者他们的孩子很难看。

So, I'm just talking about --

我的意思是——

(Laughter)

（笑）

talking about the important things.

重要的事情。

So --

所以——

(Laughter)

（笑）

So when you leave this room,

当你离开这间屋子，

I'd like you to observe yourself in conversations with others.

我希望你在与他人交流时 能仔细观察自己，

Imagine if you knew what they were really thinking,

想象如果你能真正理解他人的思想，

and imagine if you knew what they were really like ...

真正理解他人的特质，

and imagine if they knew what you were really thinking

想象他们能真正理解你的思想，

and what were really like.

理解你的特质。

It would certainly clear things up a lot

这样一来一定会 帮你理清很多事情，

and make your operations together more effective.

使得你们在一起合作更加高效。

I think it will improve your relationships.

我想这样也会促进你们的关系。

Now imagine that you can have algorithms

现在想象，你有一些算法

that will help you gather all of that information

帮助你收集信息，

and even help you make decisions in an idea-meritocratic way.

甚至帮助你做出优选决策。

This sort of radical transparency is coming at you

这样绝对透明的时代马上就要到来，

and it is going to affect your life.

影响你的生活。

And in my opinion,

依我的拙见，

it's going to be wonderful.

前途是光明的。

So I hope it is as wonderful for you

我希望这个方法对你有帮助，

as it is for me.

就如同我们所收获的一样。

Thank you very much.

十分感谢。

(Applause)

（鼓掌）