How to build a company where the best ideas win | Ray Dalio

譯者: NAN-KUN WU 審譯者: Xiaowei Dong

Whether you like it or not,

不論你喜不喜歡

radical transparency and algorithmic decision-making is coming at you fast,

徹底的透明化 與演算決策法都來勢洶洶

and it's going to change your life.

它們也將改變你的生活

That's because it's now easy to take algorithms

但這是因為把演算法 放進電腦中很容易

and embed them into computers

and gather all that data that you're leaving on yourself

然後收集你身上各式各樣的資料

all over the place,

and know what you're like,

來了解你是個什麼樣的人

and then direct the computers to interact with you

然後讓電腦以比任何人 都好的方式跟你互動

in ways that are better than most people can.

Well, that might sound scary.

嗯，這或許聽起來有點嚇人

I've been doing this for a long time and I have found it to be wonderful.

我已經做這件事很久了 而且我發現這是件很棒的事

My objective has been to have meaningful work

我的任務是做有意義的事情

and meaningful relationships with the people I work with,

以及和我的同事們建立良好的關係

and I've learned that I couldn't have that

而我發現如果少了 透明化與演算決策法

unless I had that radical transparency and that algorithmic decision-making.

我將做不到上面提到的兩件事

I want to show you why that is,

我想告訴你們這是為什麼

I want to show you how it works.

我也想告訴你們這是如何運作的

And I warn you that some of the things that I'm going to show you

我要先警告你們我將要告訴你們的事

或許會有些驚人

probably are a little bit shocking.

Since I was a kid, I've had a terrible rote memory.

從我小的時候，就很不擅長死記硬背

And I didn't like following instructions,

我也不喜歡照著指示走

I was no good at following instructions.

也不擅長照指示做事

But I loved to figure out how things worked for myself.

但我喜歡自己去發現 事物是如何運作的

When I was 12,

我 12 歲的時候

I hated school but I fell in love with trading the markets.

我討厭上學但我熱愛市場交易

I caddied at the time,

我那時候是個桿弟

earned about five dollars a bag.

提一個袋子賺五塊美金

And I took my caddying money, and I put it in the stock market.

然後我把當桿弟賺的錢拿去買股票

And that was just because the stock market was hot at the time.

就只是因為那時候流行買股票

And the first company I bought

我投資的第一家公司

was a company by the name of Northeast Airlines.

是一家名叫東北航空的公司

Northeast Airlines was the only company I heard of

東北航空是那時候我所知道

that was selling for less than five dollars a share.

唯一一家股票 每股低於五塊美金的公司

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

And I figured I could buy more shares,

我發現我可以買進更多股票

and if it went up, I'd make more money.

如果股票漲價，我就可以賺更多錢

So, it was a dumb strategy, right?

所以，這個策略很蠢，對吧？

But I tripled my money,

但我的錢翻了三倍

and I tripled my money because I got lucky.

我的錢翻了三倍，就因為我運氣好

The company was about to go bankrupt,

這家公司瀕臨破產

but some other company acquired it,

但其它公司把它買了下來

and I tripled my money.

然後我賺了三倍回來

And I was hooked.

我上癮了

And I thought, "This game is easy."

我心想：這個遊戲真容易

With time,

過了一段時間之後

I learned this game is anything but easy.

我發現這個遊戲其實相當困難

In order to be an effective investor,

為了成為一名有效率的投資人

one has to bet against the consensus

不能隨波逐流

and be right.

而且要眼光準確

And it's not easy to bet against the consensus and be right.

不隨波逐流且眼光準確並不容易

One has to bet against the consensus and be right

你必須不隨波逐流且眼光準確

because the consensus is built into the price.

因為社會大眾的看法 會反映在股價上面

And in order to be an entrepreneur,

為了成為一名企業家

a successful entrepreneur,

而且是一名成功的企業家

one has to bet against the consensus and be right.

就必須不隨波逐流且眼光準確

I had to be an entrepreneur and an investor --

為了同時成為企業家以及投資人

and what goes along with that is making a lot of painful mistakes.

在這條路上我犯了許多嚴重的錯誤

So I made a lot of painful mistakes,

我就是這麼過來的

and with time,

隨著時間過去

my attitude about those mistakes began to change.

我對於這些錯誤的態度開始有了改變

I began to think of them as puzzles.

我開始把它們看作是一塊塊的拼圖

That if I could solve the puzzles,

如果我能夠把它們拼在一起的話

they would give me gems.

我就能得到寶石

And the puzzles were:

這些拼圖就是：

What would I do differently in the future so I wouldn't make that painful mistake?

未來我要怎麼做 才能避免再犯這些錯誤？

And the gems were principles

而那些寶石就是我寫下並牢記的原則

that I would then write down so I would remember them

that would help me in the future.

這些原則在未來會對我有所幫助

And because I wrote them down so clearly,

就是因為我清楚地把它們寫下來

I could then --

我最後才能發現

eventually discovered --

I could then embed them into algorithms.

我可以把這些原則寫進演算法裡面

And those algorithms would be embedded in computers,

然後就可以把這些演算法 植入到電腦裡

and the computers would make decisions along with me;

最後電腦就可以跟我一起做出決定

and so in parallel, we would make these decisions.

電腦會和我一起做出決定

And I could see how those decisions then compared with my own decisions,

之後我會去比較我們一起所做的決定

和我自己做的決定

and I could see that those decisions were a lot better.

然後我發現電腦和我 一起做的決定好多了

And that was because the computer could make decisions much faster,

這是因為電腦做決定的速度快多了

it could process a lot more information

而且它可以處理更多的資訊

and it can process decisions much more --

它在做決定的時候 也不會被情緒所影響

less emotionally.

So it radically improved my decision-making.

電腦大大改善了我做決定的過程

Eight years after I started Bridgewater,

在我成立對沖基金橋水聯合 (Bridgewater) 八年之後

I had my greatest failure,

我經歷了我最大的失敗

my greatest mistake.

最大的錯誤

It was late 1970s,

當時是 1970 年代晚期

I was 34 years old,

當年我 34 歲

and I had calculated that American banks

我計算出美國的銀行 借給新興國家太多的錢

had lent much more money to emerging countries

than those countries were going to be able to pay back

多到這些國家還不起

and that we would have the greatest debt crisis

這可能會讓我們遭遇

since the Great Depression.

自從經濟大蕭條以來最大的債務危機

And with it, an economic crisis

伴隨而來的就會是經濟危機

and a big bear market in stocks.

還有嚴重的熊市

It was a controversial view at the time.

這個觀點在當時很具爭議性

People thought it was kind of a crazy point of view.

大家覺得這是個有點瘋狂的想法

But in August 1982,

但在 1982 年 8 月

Mexico defaulted on its debt,

墨西哥宣布了債務違約

and a number of other countries followed.

然後一些其它的國家也跟進

And we had the greatest debt crisis since the Great Depression.

我們就這樣遇到了

經濟大蕭條以來最大的債務危機

And because I had anticipated that,

因為我早就已經預料到這件事

I was asked to testify to Congress and appear on "Wall Street Week,"

我被邀請到國會作見證

以及上當時熱門電視「本周華爾街」 (Wall Street Week) 當來賓

which was the show of the time.

Just to give you a flavor of that, I've got a clip here,

為了讓你們親身體驗 我準備了一段影片

and you'll see me in there.

我就出現在這影片當中

(Video) Mr. Chairman, Mr. Mitchell,

（影片）主席、米歇爾先生

it's a great pleasure and a great honor to be able to appear before you

很高興也很榮幸能夠來到這裡

in examination with what is going wrong with our economy.

檢視我們的經濟出了什麼問題

The economy is now flat --

經濟沒有成長

teetering on the brink of failure.

在崩潰的邊緣搖搖欲墜

Martin Zweig: You were recently quoted in an article.

馬汀．茲維格：「最近一篇文章提到 你說『我非常肯定我所說過的話，

You said, "I can say this with absolute certainty

because I know how markets work."

因為我瞭解市場是如何運作的』。」

Ray Dalio: I can say with absolute certainty

雷．達里歐： 「我非常確定我的論點是對的，

that if you look at the liquidity base

如果把企業的流動資金 和全世界看做一體的話，

in the corporations and the world as a whole,

that there's such reduced level of liquidity

目前資金流動性大幅降低， 不可能回到停滯性通膨時代。」

that you can't return to an era of stagflation."

I look at that now, I think, "What an arrogant jerk!"

看了這段影片，我只覺得 「這傢伙真是個傲慢的混蛋！」

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

I was so arrogant, and I was so wrong.

我當時非常傲慢，而且錯得離譜

I mean, while the debt crisis happened,

我是說，當債務危機發生的時候

the stock market and the economy went up rather than going down,

股市還有經濟是成長的，而不是下跌

and I lost so much money for myself and for my clients

而我和我的客戶損失了一大筆錢

that I had to shut down my operation pretty much,

我的公司幾乎面臨倒閉

I had to let almost everybody go.

我得讓幾乎所有的員工走人

And these were like extended family,

這些人對我來說就像家人一樣

I was heartbroken.

我痛徹心扉

And I had lost so much money

我的損失大到

that I had to borrow 4,000 dollars from my dad

我得向我父親借 4,000 美金 來付家裡的帳單

to help to pay my family bills.

It was one of the most painful experiences of my life ...

那是我這輩子最痛苦的經驗之一

but it turned out to be one of the greatest experiences of my life

但後來變成是 我這輩子最好的經驗之一

because it changed my attitude about decision-making.

因為那次的經驗改變了 我對決策的態度

Rather than thinking, "I'm right,"

我開始問我自己 「我怎麼確定我是對的？」

I started to ask myself,

而不是認為「我是對的」

"How do I know I'm right?"

I gained a humility that I needed

我學會了謙遜

in order to balance my audacity.

來平衡我的放肆

I wanted to find the smartest people who would disagree with me

我想要找最聰明的人來反駁我

to try to understand their perspective

讓我了解他們的觀點

or to have them stress test my perspective.

或讓他們來對我觀點做壓力測試

I wanted to make an idea meritocracy.

我希望優秀想法勝出的功績主義

In other words,

也就是說，不是我說什麼 你做什麼這種獨裁主義

not an autocracy in which I would lead and others would follow

and not a democracy in which everybody's points of view were equally valued,

也不是人人的意見都平等的民主

but I wanted to have an idea meritocracy in which the best ideas would win out.

我想要的是那種 最好的想法會勝出的功績主義

And in order to do that,

為了做到這一點

I realized that we would need radical truthfulness

我了解到我們需要擁有徹底的誠實

and radical transparency.

還有徹底的透明化

What I mean by radical truthfulness and radical transparency

我所說的徹底的誠實 還有徹底的透明化

is people needed to say what they really believed

是讓人們能夠說出他們 真正相信的，並看到一切

and to see everything.

And we literally tape almost all conversations

我們確實地把幾乎 每個對話都錄了下來

and let everybody see everything,

然後讓所有的人看見

because if we didn't do that,

因為如果我們不這麼做

we couldn't really have an idea meritocracy.

我們就沒辦法確實做到優秀想法勝出

In order to have an idea meritocracy,

為了達到優秀想法勝出的功績主義

we have let people speak and say what they want.

我們讓人們說出他們想要什麼

Just to give you an example,

下面是個例子

this is an email from Jim Haskel --

這是吉米寄的一封電子郵件

somebody who works for me --

他是我的員工

and this was available to everybody in the company.

每個在公司的人都看得到這封郵件

"Ray, you deserve a 'D-'

「雷，你今天在會議裡的 表現只有 60 分，

for your performance today in the meeting ...

you did not prepare at all well

你根本沒有準備好，

because there is no way you could have been that disorganized."

因為你不是一個這麼 沒有組織的人。」

Isn't that great?

這不是很棒嗎？

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

That's great.

這真的很棒

It's great because, first of all, I needed feedback like that.

第一，我需要像這樣的回饋

I need feedback like that.

我需要像這樣的回饋

And it's great because if I don't let Jim, and people like Jim,

很棒的點在於如果我不讓吉米 還有其他像吉米的人

to express their points of view,

表達他們的觀點

our relationship wouldn't be the same.

我們的關係就不會像現在這樣

And if I didn't make that public for everybody to see,

如果我不讓所有人都看得見這封信

we wouldn't have an idea meritocracy.

我們就無法實踐 優秀想法勝出的功績主義

So for that last 25 years that's how we've been operating.

所以過去 25 年來 我們就是這麼經營公司的

We've been operating with this radical transparency

我們用徹底的透明化來經營公司

and then collecting these principles,

然後收集這些原則

largely from making mistakes,

這些原則大部分是來自犯錯

and then embedding those principles into algorithms.

然後把這些原則放進演算法裡面

And then those algorithms provide --

然後演算法會做出選擇

we're following the algorithms

我們就根據演算法 還有自己的想法來做出選擇

in parallel with our thinking.

That has been how we've run the investment business,

這就是我們怎麼讓 這間投資公司運作的

and it's how we also deal with the people management.

也是我們怎麼管理員工的

In order to give you a glimmer into what this looks like,

為了讓你們對我在說的東西有點概念

I'd like to take you into a meeting

我想帶你們一起參加一場會議

and introduce you to a tool of ours called the "Dot Collector"

並向你們介紹我們一個 名叫「集點」的工具

that helps us do this.

這個工具幫助我們做到這些事

A week after the US election,

美國大選的一星期之後

our research team held a meeting

我們的研究團隊舉行了一場會議

to discuss what a Trump presidency would mean for the US economy.

來討論川普的勝選 對美國經濟有何意義

Naturally, people had different opinions on the matter

很正常的，人們對這個議題 還有我們怎麼去看這件事情

and how we were approaching the discussion.

有著不一樣的想法

The "Dot Collector" collects these views.

「集點」收集了這些想法

It has a list of a few dozen attributes,

這些想法總共可以分成好幾十種

so whenever somebody thinks something about another person's thinking,

所以當有某個人 對別人的看法有想法的時候

it's easy for them to convey their assessment;

他們就可以很容易地作出評估

they simply note the attribute and provide a rating from one to 10.

他們會記下這個想法 然後給一個 1 到 10 分的分數

For example, as the meeting began,

舉例來說，在會議開始的時候

a researcher named Jen rated me a three --

一位名叫詹的研究員給了我 3 分

in other words, badly --

就是很爛的意思

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

for not showing a good balance of open-mindedness and assertiveness.

因為我的論點沒有在包容性 與自信之間取得平衡

As the meeting transpired,

會議公開之後

Jen's assessments of people added up like this.

詹對於人們的分析總結如下

Others in the room have different opinions.

在會議室裡的其他人各有不同的意見

That's normal.

這很正常

Different people are always going to have different opinions.

不同的人總是有著不同的意見

And who knows who's right?

誰知道誰是對的呢？

Let's look at just what people thought about how I was doing.

我們來看看大家 對我當時的說法是怎麼想的

Some people thought I did well,

有些人認為我說得很好

others, poorly.

其他人覺得我說得很差

With each of these views,

透過這些觀點

we can explore the thinking behind the numbers.

我們可以探索在數字背後的這些想法

Here's what Jen and Larry said.

詹和賴利是這麼說的

Note that everyone gets to express their thinking,

無論他們在公司的位階

including their critical thinking,

每個人都可以表達他們的想法

regardless of their position in the company.

包括他們的批判性思考

Jen, who's 24 years old and right out of college,

24 歲、剛剛從學校畢業的詹

can tell me, the CEO, that I'm approaching things terribly.

可以說我這個執行長 觀察事情的能力很差

This tool helps people both express their opinions

這個工具幫人們表達他們的意見

and then separate themselves from their opinions

然後讓他們從更高的 一個客觀角度來看事情

to see things from a higher level.

When Jen and others shift their attentions from inputting their own opinions

當詹和其他人從提供意見

to looking down on the whole screen,

變成綜觀全局的時候

their perspective changes.

他們的觀點就改變了

They see their own opinions as just one of many

他們了解到他們的想法 只是眾多想法的其中之一

and naturally start asking themselves,

並很自然地開始思考

"How do I know my opinion is right?"

「我怎麼知道我的想法是對的？」

That shift in perspective is like going from seeing in one dimension

這就像是從一個維度看事情

to seeing in multiple dimensions.

變成從多個維度看事情

And it shifts the conversation from arguing over our opinions

也把對話從針對這些想法的爭論

to figuring out objective criteria for determining which opinions are best.

變為找出客觀的標準 來決定哪個意見是最好的

Behind the "Dot Collector" is a computer that is watching.

在「集點」的背後 有一台在監控的電腦

It watches what all these people are thinking

他監控了所有人的想法

and it correlates that with how they think.

然後去和他們是怎麼想的做連結

And it communicates advice back to each of them based on that.

然後根據這些結果回傳建議

Then it draws the data from all the meetings

最後電腦會從所有的會議中收集資料

to create a pointilist painting of what people are like

並產生一個點描清單

顯示他們是怎麼樣的人 以及是怎麼思考的

and how they think.

And it does that guided by algorithms.

電腦做的這些事就是從演算法來的

Knowing what people are like helps to match them better with their jobs.

瞭解人們是怎麼樣的人 能夠幫助他們找到更適合他們的職位

For example,

舉例來說

a creative thinker who is unreliable

一個有創意但是不可靠的人

might be matched up with someone who's reliable but not creative.

可以和一個可靠但沒創意的人做搭配

Knowing what people are like also allows us to decide

瞭解人們是怎麼樣的人 也讓我們可以決定

what responsibilities to give them

要派給他們什麼樣的職責

and to weigh our decisions based on people's merits.

同時也可以根據大家的表現 來衡量我們的決定

We call it their believability.

我們把它稱為這些人的可信度

Here's an example of a vote that we took

在某次投票裡

where the majority of people felt one way ...

多數人投給了一邊

but when we weighed the views based on people's merits,

但當我們對人們的功績作加權之後

the answer was completely different.

得到了完全相反的答案

This process allows us to make decisions not based on democracy,

這個過程讓我們的決策過程 不再根據民主

not based on autocracy,

也不是根據獨裁

but based on algorithms that take people's believability into consideration.

而是根據演算法 把人們的可信度納入考量

Yup, we really do this.

沒錯，我們真的這麼做

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

We do it because it eliminates

我們這麼做是因為它可以消除

what I believe to be one of the greatest tragedies of mankind,

我認為人類最大的悲劇

and that is people arrogantly,

也就是人們把傲慢且天真的 錯誤想法放在心裡

naïvely holding opinions in their minds that are wrong,

and acting on them,

並根據這些想法做事情

and not putting them out there to stress test them.

而且不肯開誠布公地接受壓力測試

And that's a tragedy.

這真的是個悲劇

And we do it because it elevates ourselves above our own opinions

我們這麼做是因為 可以讓我們超脫於自我

so that we start to see things through everybody's eyes,

然後從每一個人的眼睛看每件事

and we see things collectively.

來看見事情的全貌

Collective decision-making is so much better than individual decision-making

如果好好地去做的話 集體決策比個人決策要好得太多了

if it's done well.

It's been the secret sauce behind our success.

這就是我們成功背後的原因

It's why we've made more money for our clients

也是我們幫客戶賺得 比其它現有對沖基金更多的原因

than any other hedge fund in existence

and made money 23 out of the last 26 years.

而且過去 26 年有 23 年是獲利的

So what's the problem with being radically truthful

那麼彼此間徹底的誠實

and radically transparent with each other?

和徹底透明會有什麼問題呢？

People say it's emotionally difficult.

有人說是情感上的困難

Critics say it's a formula for a brutal work environment.

評論家說這是殘酷的職場

Neuroscientists tell me it has to do with how are brains are prewired.

神經科學家告訴我 這和大腦的網絡有關

There's a part of our brain that would like to know our mistakes

大腦裡有一個部位會試著去找出 我們犯的錯誤還有弱點

and like to look at our weaknesses so we could do better.

然後讓我們表現更好

I'm told that that's the prefrontal cortex.

有人告訴我這個部位叫前額葉皮質區

And then there's a part of our brain which views all of this as attacks.

大腦還有個部位 會把錯誤和弱點視為攻擊

I'm told that that's the amygdala.

這個部位叫杏仁核

In other words, there are two you's inside you:

換句話說，你的身體裡面有兩個你

there's an emotional you

一個是情緒化的你

and there's an intellectual you,

一個是理性的你

and often they're at odds,

他們常常是互相衝突的

and often they work against you.

也常常和你做對

It's been our experience that we can win this battle.

我們的經驗告訴我們 我們能贏得這場競爭

We win it as a group.

透過團結合作

It takes about 18 months typically

通常要花 18 個月

to find that most people prefer operating this way,

才會讓大家習慣並選擇徹底的透明

with this radical transparency

than to be operating in a more opaque environment.

而不是個看不清的環境

There's not politics, there's not the brutality of --

這無關政治，也無關殘酷

you know, all of that hidden, behind-the-scenes --

在這些的背後

there's an idea meritocracy where people can speak up.

有個優秀想法勝出的功績主義 讓每個人都能發聲

And that's been great.

這一直都很棒

It's given us more effective work,

它讓我們的工作更有效果

and it's given us more effective relationships.

也讓人們之間的關係更有效果

But it's not for everybody.

不過這不適用於所有人

We found something like 25 or 30 percent of the population

我們發現有大約 百分之 25 到 30 的人不適用

it's just not for.

And by the way,

附帶一提，我說的徹底透明 不是說什麼都不掩飾

when I say radical transparency,

I'm not saying transparency about everything.

I mean, you don't have to tell somebody that their bald spot is growing

我是說，你不必告訴 某人他越來越禿了

or their baby's ugly.

或是他們的小孩很醜

So, I'm just talking about --

我說的是──

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

talking about the important things.

說的是那些比較重要的事

So --

所以──

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

So when you leave this room,

當你離開這個會場的時候

I'd like you to observe yourself in conversations with others.

我想要你在和別人 對話的時候觀察自己

Imagine if you knew what they were really thinking,

想像你知道他們真正的想法

and imagine if you knew what they were really like ...

想像你知道他們其實是個什麼樣的人

and imagine if they knew what you were really thinking

想像他們知道你真正的想法

and what were really like.

和真正的你

It would certainly clear things up a lot

這一定會讓事情明朗化

and make your operations together more effective.

並讓你的做法更有效

I think it will improve your relationships.

我覺得這可以讓你的關係變得更美好

Now imagine that you can have algorithms

現在想像你有演算法

that will help you gather all of that information

幫你收集所有的資料

and even help you make decisions in an idea-meritocratic way.

甚至幫你在優秀想法勝出的 功績主義之下做出決定

This sort of radical transparency is coming at you

這樣的徹底透明化將會進入你的世界

and it is going to affect your life.

而且會影響你的生活

And in my opinion,

我認為

it's going to be wonderful.

這將會是很美好的一件事

So I hope it is as wonderful for you

所以我希望這對你們來說

as it is for me.

會跟對我來說一樣美好

Thank you very much.

非常謝謝你們

(Applause)

（掌聲）