The Next Global Superpower Isn't Who You Think | Ian Bremmer | TED

Prevodilac: Milenka Okuka Lektor: Ivana Krivokuca

I have a big question.

Imam važno pitanje.

Which is, who runs the world?

Ono glasi: ko upravlja svetom?

It used to be an easy question to answer.

Nekada je bilo lako dati odgovor.

If you're over 45 like me,

Ako ste stariji od 45 godina poput mene,

you grew up in a world that was dominated by two giants.

odrasli ste u svetu kojim su dominirala dva giganta.

The United States called the shots on one side of the Wall,

Sjedinjene Američke Države su vukle konce s jedne strane Zida,

the Soviets set the rules on the other.

dok su Sovjeti diktirali pravila s druge.

And that was a bipolar world.

I bio je to bipolarni svet.

It's very simple.

Veoma je prosto.

If you're under 45,

Ako ste mlađi od 45 godina,

you grew up when the Soviet Union had already collapsed,

odrastali ste nakon što je Sovjetski Savez već pao,

and that left the United States as the sole superpower,

zbog čega su Sjedinjene Države ostale jedina supersila

dominating global institutions and also exerting raw power.

koja je dominirala globalnim institucijama i vršila bezuslovnu moć.

And that was a unipolar world.

I to je bio unipolarni svet.

And then about 15 years ago,

A potom, pre oko 15 godina,

things got a little more complicated.

stvari su se malčice zakomplikovale.

The United States increasingly didn't want to be the world's policeman

Sjedinjene Države su sve manje želele da budu svetski policajac

or the architect of global trade

ili arhitekta globalne trgovine,

or even the cheerleader for global values.

pa čak ni podstrekač globalnih vrednosti.

Other countries were becoming more powerful,

Druge države su postajale sve moćnije,

and they could increasingly ignore many of the rules they didn't like,

i sve više su mogle da ignorišu mnoga pravila koja im se nisu sviđala,

sometimes even setting new rules themselves.

ponekad čak i same određujući nova pravila.

What happened?

Šta se desilo?

Three things.

Tri stvari.

Number one,

Pod jedan,

Russia was not integrated into Western institutions.

Rusija nije integrisana u zapadne institucije.

A former great power now in very serious decline

Bivša velika sila, sada u ozbiljnom opadanju,

and they are angry about it.

besna je zbog toga.

We can argue about whose fault that is, but we are where we are.

Možemo da raspravljamo ko je kriv za to, ali tu smo gde smo.

Number two,

Pod dva,

China was integrated into US-led institutions

Kina je integrisana u institucije kojim upravlja SAD

on the presumption that as they got wealthier and more powerful,

s pretpostavkom da će se, kako budu postajali bogatiji i uticajniji,

they would become Americans.

pretvoriti u Amerikance.

Turns out, they're still Chinese.

Ispostavlja se da su i dalje Kinezi.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

And the United States is not particularly comfortable with that.

A Sjedinjenim Državama to baš i ne prija.

Number three,

Pod tri,

tens of millions of citizens in the United States

desetine miliona građana u Sjedinjenim Državama

and other wealthy democracies

i drugim imućnim demokratijama

felt left behind by globalization.

se osećalo zapostavljenim zbog globalizacije.

This has been ignored for decades.

Ovo je decenijama ignorisano.

But as a consequence,

Kao posledica toga,

they felt that their governments and their leaders were more illegitimate.

smatrali su da su njihove vlade i vođe sve više nelegitimni.

Now if you look at all the headlines in the world today,

Ako pogledate sve naslove trenutno u svetu

driving all of this geopolitical tension and conflict,

o tome šta pokreće ove geopolitičke tenzije i konflikt,

over 90 percent of them are because of these three reasons.

preko 90 procenata njih je iz ova tri razloga.

And that's why today we live in a leaderless world.

I zato danas živimo u svetu bez vođa.

But as we know,

Međutim, kao što znamo,

that's not going to be with us for long.

to neće dugo potrajati.

So what comes next?

Dakle, šta sledi?

What kind of a world order might we expect

Kakav bismo svetski poredak mogli da očekujemo

over the next ten years?

u narednih deset godina?

Some of what I might say I think will surprise you.

Ponešto od onoga što ću reći mislim da će vas iznenaditi.

Because we're not going to have

Zato što nećemo imati

a bipolar or a unipolar or even a multipolar world.

bipolarni ili unipolarni, pa čak ni multipolarni svet.

If we don't have one or two superpowers,

Ako nemamo jednu ili dve supersile,

we don't have a single global order.

nemamo jedinstven svetski poredak.

No, instead, we will have three different orders,

Ne, umesto toga imaćemo tri različita poretka,

a little overlapping,

koji se malčice preklapaju,

and the third will have immense importance for how we live,

a treći će da ima ogromnu važnost za to kako živimo,

what we think,

kako razmišljamo,

what we want,

šta želimo

and what we're prepared to do to get it.

i na šta smo spremni da to postignemo.

But first things first.

Ipak, krenimo ispočetka.

Today, we have a global security order.

Danas imamo globalni bezbednosni poredak.

And as you see from the map,

I kao što vidite na karti,

the United States and its allies are the most powerful players on it.

Sjedinjene Države sa saveznicima su tu najjači igrači.

The US is the only country in the world

SAD je jedina država na svetu

that can send its soldiers

koja može da šalje vojnike,

and its sailors and its military equipment to every corner of that world.

mornare i vojnu opremu u svaki ćošak tog sveta.

No one else is close.

Niko drugi nije ni blizu.

China is growing in its military capabilities in Asia,

Kineski vojni kapaciteti rastu u Aziji,

though nowhere else.

ali ne i bilo gde drugde.

Lots of American allies in Asia are concerned about that.

Mnogi američki saveznici u Aziji su zabrinuti zbog ovoga.

And as a consequence, they're becoming more dependent

I posledično su sve zavisniji

on the United States for a security umbrella.

od Sjedinjenih Država i njihovog bezbednosnog štita.

With the Russian invasion of Ukraine,

Zbog ruske invazije na Ukrajinu,

US allies in Europe are becoming more concerned and dependent

saveznici SAD-a u Evropi su sve zabrinutiji i zavisniji

on the United States and a US-led NATO.

od Sjedinjenih Država i NATO-a predvođenog SAD-om.

The Russian military, of course, has been a greater global concern,

Ruska vojska je, naravno, bila značajna globalna pretnja,

much less so today,

trenutno je to daleko manje,

especially as they've lost over 200,000 troops

naročito jer su izgubili preko 200 000 vojnika

and all of that equipment

i svu tu opremu,

and with sanctions making it extremely hard for them to rebuild.

i uz sankcije im je izuzetno teško da se oporave.

Now, Russia and China and others have nuclear weapons,

Sad, Rusija, Kina i ostali imaju nuklearno oružje,

but thank God it is still suicide to use them.

ali, bogu hvala, njegova upotreba je i dalje samoubistvo.

And as a consequence,

A posledično,

our security order is a unipolar order

naš bezbednosni poredak je unipolarni poredak

and it is likely to remain so for the next decade.

i verovatno će to i ostati u narednoj deceniji.

Now at the same time that there's a security order,

Istovremeno sa postojanjem bezbednosnog poretka,

there's also a global economic order.

imamo i globalni ekonomski poredak.

And here, power is shared.

A tu se moć deli.

The United States is still a very robust global economy.

Sjedinjene Države su i dalje snažna globalna ekonomija.

But the US can't use its dominant position militarily

Međutim, SAD ne može da koristi svoju dominantnu vojnu poziciju

to tell other countries what to do economically.

da naređuje drugim državama kako da se ekonomski ponašaju.

The United States and China are enormously economically interdependent

Sjedinjene Države i Kina su enormno ekonomski međuzavisne,

and so they can't control each other.

te stoga ne mogu da kontrolišu jedna drugu.

You may be surprised to hear this,

Možda će vas iznenaditi da čujete,

but today US-China trade relations are actually at their highest level

ali trenutne trgovinske veze između SAD-a i Kine su na najvišem nivou

in history.

u istoriji.

Now, other countries in the world,

Sad, druge države na svetu,

a lot of them want access to US military muscle,

mnoge od njih žele pristup američkoj vojnoj sili,

but they also want access to the Chinese market,

ali žele i pristup kineskom tržištu,

soon, by 2030, likely to be the largest in the world.

koje će uskoro, do 2030, verovatno da bude najveće na svetu.

And you can't very well have a cold war

A ne možete baš da imate hladni rat,

if the US and the Chinese are the only two that are prepared to fight it.

ako su SAD i Kinezi jedini koji su spremni da se bore u njemu.

Yes?

Da?

Yes.

Da.

So the European Union has the largest common market

Dakle, Evropska unija ima najveće jedinstveno tržište

and they set the rules.

i oni određuju pravila.

And if you want to do profitable business there,

A ako želite tu da se bavite profitabilnim poslom,

you listen to those rules.

sledite data pravila.

India is playing a greater role economically on the global stage.

Indija igra sve značajniju ekonomsku ulogu na globalnoj sceni.

Japan still matters, too.

Japan je i dalje bitan.

And over the next ten years,

A u narednih deset godina,

there will be a rise and fall

dolaziće do uspona i padova

of the relative capacities of these economies.

u relativnim kapacitetima ovih ekonomija.

But the global economic order is and will remain a multipolar order.

Međutim, globalni ekonomski poredak jeste, i ostaće, multipolarni poredak.

Now, between these two orders are tensions

Sad, između ova dva poretka imamo tenzije

because the United States will use its power in national security

jer će SAD koristiti svoju moć u nacionalnoj bezbednosti

to try to bring more of the world's economies towards it.

da pokuša da privuče sve više svetskih ekonomija sebi.

And we already see this starting to happen in semiconductors

I već vidimo da se ovo počinje dešavati u slučaju poluprovodnika,

and in critical minerals and maybe soon in TikTok.

kritičnih minerala, a možda uskoro i Tiktoka.

The Chinese are trying to use their dominant commercial position

Kinezi pokušavaju da iskoriste svoju dominantnu trgovinsku poziciju

to align more of the world diplomatically.

da diplomatski prestroje sve veći deo sveta.

And Japan and Europe and India

A Japan, Evropa, Indija

and everyone else will do their damnedest

i svi ostali će učiniti sve što je u njihovoj moći

to ensure that neither of these two orders dominate the other.

da se postaraju da nijedan od ova dva poretka ne dominira nad drugim.

And they will mostly succeed.

I uglavnom će da budu uspešni.

Now, so far I have spoken with you

Do sad sam vam govorio

about the two world orders we already see,

o dva svetska poretka koja već vidimo,

but there's a third that is coming soon that's even more important.

ali postoji i treći koji dolazi uskoro i koji je još važniji.

And that is the digital order.

A to je digitalni poredak.

And the digital order is not run by governments

A digitalnim poretkom ne upravljaju vlade,

but by technology companies.

već tehnološke kompanije.

We all know how much military support

Svi znamo koliku su vojnu podršku

NATO countries have provided Ukraine

države NATO-a obezbedile Ukrajini

during the war.

tokom rata.

But it's technology companies that provided the tools

Međutim, tehnološke kompanije su obezbedile alate

allowing Ukraine to defend itself from Russian cyber attack.

koji omogućuju Ukrajini da se brani od ruskih sajber napada.

It's technology companies that gave the Ukrainian leaders

Tehnološke kompanije su pružile ukrajinskim vođama

the ability to speak with their generals and their soldiers on the front lines.

mogućnost da razgovaraju s generalima i njihovim vojnicima u prvim redovima.

If it wasn't for those technology companies,

Da nije bilo tih tehnoloških kompanija,

Ukraine would have been fully offline within weeks of the war.

Ukrajina bi bila u potpunosti bez interneta u prvim nedeljama rata.

And I don't believe President Zelensky would still be there today.

I ne mislim da bi predsednik Zelenski i danas bio tu.

Technology companies determine whether Donald Trump is able,

Tehnološke kompanije određuju da li će Donald Tramp biti u stanju

in real time and without filter,

da u realnom vremenu i bez filtera

to speak with hundreds of millions of people

razgovara sa stotinama miliona ljudi

as he runs again for the presidency.

dok ponovo vodi predsedničku kampanju.

It's social media platforms

Radi se o platformama društvenih mreža

and their ability to promote disinformation

i njihovoj sposobnosti da promovišu dezinformacije

and conspiracy theory.

i teorije zavere.

Without them, we do not have riots in the Capitol on January 6.

Bez njih nemamo šestojanuarske nerede na Kapitolu.

We do not have trucker riots in Ottawa.

Nemamo nerede kamiondžija u Otavi.

We do not have a January 8 insurrection in Brazil.

Nemamo osmojanuarsku pobunu u Brazilu.

Technology companies increasingly determine our identities.

Tehnološke kompanije sve više određuju naše identitete.

When I was growing up, it's nature or nurture.

Kada sam odrastao, bilo je priroda ili odgoj.

I mean, my deep and abiding emotional problems

Mislim, moji duboki i istrajni emocionalni problemi

either come from how I was raised --

su poticali od toga kako sam odgajan -

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

Or some genetic failure.

Ili nekog genetskog nedostatka.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

Could be both.

Ili možda oba.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

But today,

Međutim, danas,

our identities are determined by nature and nurture

naše identitete određuju priroda i odgoj,

and algorithm.

i algoritmi.

If you want to challenge the system,

Ako želite da se suprotstavite sistemu,

you can't just question authority,

ne možete samo da preispitujete autoritete,

as we were all told when we were growing up.

kao što su nama govorili dok smo odrastali.

Today, you have to question the algorithm,

Danas morate da preispitujete algoritme,

and that is a staggering amount of power

a to je zapanjujuća količina moći

in the hands of these technology companies.

u rukama ovih tehnoloških kompanija.

What are they going to do with that power?

Šta će da urade s tom moći?

And that depends on who they want to be

To zavisi od toga šta žele da budu

when they grow up.

kad porastu.

So if China and the United States work to exert much more power

Dakle, ako Kina i Sjedinjene Države počnu da ispoljavaju veću moć

over the digital world

nad digitalnim svetom

and technology companies in those countries

i tehnološke kompanije u tim državama

align with those governments,

se povinuju tim vladama,

we will end up in a technology cold war.

završićemo u tehnološkom hladnom ratu.

And that means the digital order will be split in two.

A to znači da će digitalni poredak da bude rascepljen na dva dela.

If, on the other hand

Ako, s druge strane,

technology companies persist with global business models,

tehnološke kompanije istraju u globalnim poslovnim modelima,

and we retain competition between the digital and physical worlds,

i zadržimo konkurentnost između digitalnog i fizičkog sveta,

we will have a new globalization, a digital global order.

imaćemo novu globalizaciju, digitalni svetski poredak.

Or if the digital order becomes increasingly dominant

Ili ukoliko digitalni poredak postane sve dominantniji

and governments erode in their capacity to govern,

i vladama bude podrivena sposobnost upravljanja,

and we've already seen the beginning of this,

a već svedočimo početku ovoga,

technology companies will become the dominant actors

tehnološke kompanije će postati dominantni akteri

on the global stage in every way

na globalnoj sceni u svakom smislu

and we will have a techno-polar order.

i imaćemo tehno-polarni poredak.

And that will determine whether we have a world of limitless opportunity

A to će odrediti da li ćemo imati svet bezgraničnih mogućnosti

or a world without freedom.

ili svet lišen slobode.

Now at this point in my speech,

Sad, u ovoj tački govora,

I'm supposed to talk about the good news.

trebalo bi da vam saopštim dobre vesti.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

But those of you that have heard this

Međutim, oni koji su ovo već čuli

know that that is not coming.

znaju da ih neće biti.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

There is no pause button on these explosive and disruptive technologies.

Ne postoji dugme za pauzu kod ovih eksplozivnih i remetilačkih tehnologija.

I don't know if you know this,

Ne znam da li vam je poznato,

there are over 100 people in the world today

trenutno u svetu postoji preko stotinu ljudi

with the knowledge and the technology to create a new smallpox virus.

sa znanjem i tehnologijom da naprave novi virus velikih boginja.

Honestly, I don't have answers,

Iskreno, nemam odgovore,

but I have a few questions for the people that do.

ali imam pitanja za ljude koji imaju odgovore.

Because these technology companies are not just Fortune 50 and 100 actors.

Jer ove tehnološke kompanije nisu samo među 50 ili 100 najbogatijih aktera.

These technology titans are not just men worth 50 or 100 billion dollars or more.

Ovi tehnološki titani nisu samo muškarci vredni 50 ili 100 milijardi dolara i više.

They are increasingly the most powerful people on the planet

Oni su sve moćniji ljudi na planeti

with influence over our futures.

s uticajem na našu budućnost.

And we need to know,

I mi moramo da znamo:

are they going to act accountably

da li će da se ponašaju odgovorno

as they release new and powerful artificial intelligence?

dok oslobađaju novu i moćnu veštačku inteligenciju?

What are they going to do with this unprecedented amount of data

Šta će da urade sa ovom nezabeleženom količinom podataka

that they are collecting on us and our environment?

koje sakupljaju o nama i našoj okolini?

And the one that I think should concern us all right now the most:

I pitanje koje smatram da bi trebalo najviše da nas brine trenutno:

Will they persist with these advertising models

hoće li da istraju u ovim reklamnim modelima

driving so much revenues that are turning citizens into products

koji podstiču tolike prihode i pretvaraju građane u proizvode,

and driving hate and misinformation

podstiču mržnju i lažne informacije

and ripping apart our society?

i cepaju naše društvo?

(Applause)

(Aplauz)

When I was a student back in 1989,

Kada sam bio student 1989,

and the Wall fell,

i Zid je pao,

the United States was the principal exporter of democracy in the world.

Sjedinjene Države su bile glavni izvoznik demokratije u svetu.

Not always successfully.

Ne uvek uspešan.

Often hypocritically.

Često licemeran.

But number one, nonetheless.

Međutim, broj jedan, u svakom slučaju.

Today, the United States has become the principal exporter of tools

Danas su Sjedinjene Države postale glavni izvoznik alata

that destroy democracy.

koji uništavaju demokratiju.

The technology leaders who create and control these tools,

Tehnološkim vođama koji proizvode i kontrolišu ove alate,

are they OK with that?

da li im je to u redu?

Or are they going to do something about it?

Ili će da urade nešto povodom toga?

We need to know.

Moramo da znamo.

Thank you.

Hvala vam.

(Cheers and applause)

(Ovacije i aplauz)