The Next Global Superpower Isn't Who You Think | Ian Bremmer | TED

翻译人员: Shuli Hu 校对人员: Alvin Lee

I have a big question.

我有个很大的问题。

Which is, who runs the world?

谁在统治世界？

It used to be an easy question to answer.

这个问题曾经很简单。

If you're over 45 like me,

如果你像我一样，超过 45 岁，

成长在一个被两个大国统治的世界。

you grew up in a world that was dominated by two giants.

The United States called the shots on one side of the Wall,

美国统治着世界的一半，

the Soviets set the rules on the other.

苏联统治着另一半。

And that was a bipolar world.

那是一个两级的世界。

It's very simple.

非常简单。

If you're under 45,

如果你 45 岁以下，

you grew up when the Soviet Union had already collapsed,

你成长的时候苏联已经解体，

and that left the United States as the sole superpower,

美国成了唯一的超级大国，

dominating global institutions and also exerting raw power.

统治着全球并依旧行使原始权利。

And that was a unipolar world.

那是一个单级世界。

And then about 15 years ago,

然后大约 15 年前，

things got a little more complicated.

事情变得有一点点复杂了。

The United States increasingly didn't want to be the world's policeman

美国慢慢不愿做世界警察，

or the architect of global trade

也不愿做全球贸易的建筑师，

or even the cheerleader for global values.

甚至不愿做全球价值观的拉拉队长。

Other countries were becoming more powerful,

其他国家开始变得强大，

and they could increasingly ignore many of the rules they didn't like,

他们开始无视许多不喜欢的规则，

sometimes even setting new rules themselves.

有时候甚至建立自己的新规则。

What happened?

发生了什么？

Three things.

三件事。

Number one,

第一，

Russia was not integrated into Western institutions.

俄罗斯没有融入西方国家。

A former great power now in very serious decline

曾经强大的力量现在大大减弱

and they are angry about it.

他们对此还很生气。

We can argue about whose fault that is, but we are where we are.

我们可以讨论是谁的错， 但事实就是事实。

Number two,

第二，

China was integrated into US-led institutions

中国融入了美国领导的世界，

on the presumption that as they got wealthier and more powerful,

根据以下假定，如果中国 变得更富有更强大，

they would become Americans.

他们就会变成美国。

Turns out, they're still Chinese.

但结果是，他们没变， 仍然是中国人。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

And the United States is not particularly comfortable with that.

美国对此可是特别的不舒服。

Number three,

第三，

tens of millions of citizens in the United States

美国和其他富裕民主国家里，

and other wealthy democracies

有成千上万的公民

felt left behind by globalization.

感到在全球化进程中被抛弃。

This has been ignored for decades.

这个问题几十年来一直被忽视。

But as a consequence,

但结果是，

they felt that their governments and their leaders were more illegitimate.

他们觉得自己的政府 和领导人更加不合法。

Now if you look at all the headlines in the world today,

如果你看一看 当今世界所有头条新闻，

driving all of this geopolitical tension and conflict,

推动所有地缘紧张和冲突的，

over 90 percent of them are because of these three reasons.

超过 90% 是因为这 3 个原因。

And that's why today we live in a leaderless world.

这也是为什么我们现在生活在 一个没有领导者的世界。

But as we know,

但我们都明白，

that's not going to be with us for long.

这不会持续太久。

So what comes next?

接下来会发生什么？

What kind of a world order might we expect

在接下来的十年中，

over the next ten years?

我们能期待怎样的世界秩序？

Some of what I might say I think will surprise you.

我接下来说的一些话 可能会让你吃惊。

Because we're not going to have

因为世界不会是

a bipolar or a unipolar or even a multipolar world.

两极、单级或者多级的。

If we don't have one or two superpowers,

如果我们没有一个 或者两个超级大国，

we don't have a single global order.

我们就不会有单一的全球秩序。

No, instead, we will have three different orders,

相反的，我们会有 3 种不同的秩序，

a little overlapping,

相互间会有一些重叠，

and the third will have immense importance for how we live,

第 3 个会非常重要， 会影响我们的生活，

what we think,

影响我们的思考，

what we want,

影响我们的愿望，

and what we're prepared to do to get it.

以及影响我们如何实现愿望。

But first things first.

但首先，

Today, we have a global security order.

今天，我们有全球安全秩序。

And as you see from the map,

我们能从地图看到，

the United States and its allies are the most powerful players on it.

美国和它的盟友们 是地球上最强大的玩家。

The US is the only country in the world

美国是世界上唯一一个，

可以把它的士兵、

that can send its soldiers

and its sailors and its military equipment to every corner of that world.

海军还有军事武器 送到世界任何一个角落的国家。

No one else is close.

其他国家根本无法做到。

China is growing in its military capabilities in Asia,

中国在亚洲的军事实力快速增长，

though nowhere else.

但也仅限在亚洲。

Lots of American allies in Asia are concerned about that.

许多在亚洲的美国盟友对此都很担心。

And as a consequence, they're becoming more dependent

结果他们更加依赖美国

on the United States for a security umbrella.

只为寻求一把保护伞。

With the Russian invasion of Ukraine,

随着俄罗斯入侵乌克兰，

US allies in Europe are becoming more concerned and dependent

美国在欧洲的盟友 变得更加担心

并且更加依赖美国 和美国领导的北约。

on the United States and a US-led NATO.

The Russian military, of course, has been a greater global concern,

当然，俄罗斯军事力量， 曾经是更大的全球隐患，

much less so today,

现如今已经小了很多，

especially as they've lost over 200,000 troops

特别是他们损失了 超过 20 万的兵力、

and all of that equipment

大量的装备，

and with sanctions making it extremely hard for them to rebuild.

以及受到制裁， 这些使得他们极难重建。

Now, Russia and China and others have nuclear weapons,

现在，俄罗斯和中国 还有其他国家拥有核武器，

but thank God it is still suicide to use them.

感谢上帝，还好现在使用它们 就相当于自杀。

结果就是，

And as a consequence,

our security order is a unipolar order

我们的安全秩序是单级秩序，

and it is likely to remain so for the next decade.

很大可能在接下来的 10 年里依旧如此。

Now at the same time that there's a security order,

与此同时，除了安全秩序外，

there's also a global economic order.

还有全球经济秩序。

And here, power is shared.

在这里，力量是共享的。

The United States is still a very robust global economy.

美国仍然是非常强大的全球经济体。

But the US can't use its dominant position militarily

但是美国不能用它 占统治地位的军事力量

to tell other countries what to do economically.

去告诉其他国家如何发展经济。

The United States and China are enormously economically interdependent

美国和中国在经济上 是极度互相依存的，

and so they can't control each other.

因此它们不能控制对方。

You may be surprised to hear this,

听到这儿，你可能会很吃惊，

but today US-China trade relations are actually at their highest level

今天的中美贸易关系 实际上处于

in history.

历史最高水平。

Now, other countries in the world,

而世界上的其他国家，

a lot of them want access to US military muscle,

很多都想得到美国的军事力量，

but they also want access to the Chinese market,

但是他们也想要进入中国的市场，

soon, by 2030, likely to be the largest in the world.

不久后，到 2030 年， 很可能是世界上最大的市场。

And you can't very well have a cold war

如果只有美国和中国有实力打冷战，

if the US and the Chinese are the only two that are prepared to fight it.

那就很难真正发生冷战。

Yes?

对吗？

是的。

Yes.

So the European Union has the largest common market

欧盟拥有最大的共同市场，

and they set the rules.

他们制定规则。

And if you want to do profitable business there,

如果你想在那儿挣钱，

you listen to those rules.

你就要遵守他们的规则。

India is playing a greater role economically on the global stage.

印度在全球经济舞台上 扮演着一个重要的角色。

Japan still matters, too.

日本也仍然举足轻重。

And over the next ten years,

接下来的十年里，

there will be a rise and fall

这些经济体的相对实力

of the relative capacities of these economies.

会起起落落。

But the global economic order is and will remain a multipolar order.

但是全球经济在今天和未来 都还是会保持在多极秩序。

Now, between these two orders are tensions

现在两大秩序关系紧张，

because the United States will use its power in national security

因为美国会利用其 在国际安全上的力量

to try to bring more of the world's economies towards it.

试图给自己带来更多的 全球经济利益 。

And we already see this starting to happen in semiconductors

这种趋势已经在半导体行业

and in critical minerals and maybe soon in TikTok.

和关键矿产行业上出现， 也许很快就会轮到 TikTok。

The Chinese are trying to use their dominant commercial position

中国试图用他们商业上的主导地位

to align more of the world diplomatically.

在外交上与更多国家结盟。

And Japan and Europe and India

日本、欧洲和印度

and everyone else will do their damnedest

还有其他国家将会尽最大努力

to ensure that neither of these two orders dominate the other.

确保两种秩序各行其道， 不让任何一个主导另一个。

And they will mostly succeed.

它们很有可能成功。

Now, so far I have spoken with you

到目前为止，我已经讲了

about the two world orders we already see,

我们已经看到的两种世界秩序，

but there's a third that is coming soon that's even more important.

而还有第 3 种秩序即将来到， 它甚至更重要。

And that is the digital order.

那就是数字秩序。

And the digital order is not run by governments

数字秩序不是被政府操纵的，

but by technology companies.

而是被科技公司。

We all know how much military support

我们都知道北约

NATO countries have provided Ukraine

在战争中为乌克兰

during the war.

提供了多少军事支持。

But it's technology companies that provided the tools

但是， 是科技公司提供了工具，

allowing Ukraine to defend itself from Russian cyber attack.

让乌克兰保卫自己 不被俄罗斯网络攻击。

It's technology companies that gave the Ukrainian leaders

是科技公司让乌克兰领导人们

the ability to speak with their generals and their soldiers on the front lines.

能够和前线的将士们讲话。

If it wasn't for those technology companies,

如果不是这些科技公司，

Ukraine would have been fully offline within weeks of the war.

乌克兰可能 在战争开始几周内完全掉线。

And I don't believe President Zelensky would still be there today.

而且我不相信泽连斯基总统 能坚守至今。

Technology companies determine whether Donald Trump is able,

科技公司决定了， 如果唐纳德·特朗普再次竞选总统，

in real time and without filter,

那他是否能够实时的，

to speak with hundreds of millions of people

并且没有任何滤镜的，

as he runs again for the presidency.

与数亿人交流。

It's social media platforms

是这些社交媒体平台

and their ability to promote disinformation

它们有能力推广虚假信息

and conspiracy theory.

和散布阴谋论。

Without them, we do not have riots in the Capitol on January 6.

没有他们，就没有 1 月 6 日的国会山暴动。

We do not have trucker riots in Ottawa.

没有渥太华卡车司机骚乱。

We do not have a January 8 insurrection in Brazil.

也不会有 1 月 8 日在巴西的骚乱。

Technology companies increasingly determine our identities.

科技公司越来越决定我们的身份。

When I was growing up, it's nature or nurture.

而在我成长的过程中， （身份认同）是天生的或者被培养的。

I mean, my deep and abiding emotional problems

我是说，我内心深处 持续已久的情绪问题，

either come from how I was raised --

要么是来自我的成长方式……

(Laughter)

（笑声）

Or some genetic failure.

要么就是一些基因的错误。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

Could be both.

也可能两者都有。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

But today,

但是现在，

our identities are determined by nature and nurture

我们的身份认同 是天生的、被培养的

and algorithm.

还要加上，由算法决定的。

If you want to challenge the system,

如果你想挑战系统，

you can't just question authority,

你不能只怀疑权威，

as we were all told when we were growing up.

就像我们成长过程中被告知的那样。

Today, you have to question the algorithm,

如今，你要对算法提出质疑，

and that is a staggering amount of power

那是一种惊人的力量，

in the hands of these technology companies.

被握在科技公司手里。

What are they going to do with that power?

它们拥有了这样的力量会做什么呢?

And that depends on who they want to be

这取决于它们在成长过程中

when they grow up.

想成为谁。

So if China and the United States work to exert much more power

如果中国和美国想在数字化世界

over the digital world

拥有更大的力量

而它们的科技公司

and technology companies in those countries

和政府结盟，

align with those governments,

we will end up in a technology cold war.

我们将会陷入一场科技冷战。

And that means the digital order will be split in two.

这意味着数字秩序将被分成两部分。

If, on the other hand

如果，换句话说，

technology companies persist with global business models,

科技公司持续保持全球商业模式，

and we retain competition between the digital and physical worlds,

我们还能保留数字世界 和物理世界之间的竞争，

we will have a new globalization, a digital global order.

我们将会迎来新的全球化， 一种数字化的全球秩序。

Or if the digital order becomes increasingly dominant

但如果，数字秩序 渐渐开始占主导地位，

and governments erode in their capacity to govern,

政府的管理能力受到削弱，

and we've already seen the beginning of this,

这一点已经初现端倪，

technology companies will become the dominant actors

科技公司将变成主演，

on the global stage in every way

在全球舞台上全方位碾压，

and we will have a techno-polar order.

我们将迎来“技术极”秩序。

And that will determine whether we have a world of limitless opportunity

这将会决定，我们是拥有一个 有无限机会的世界

or a world without freedom.

还是一个没有自由的世界。

Now at this point in my speech,

我的演讲进行到这里，

I'm supposed to talk about the good news.

该讲点好消息了。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

But those of you that have heard this

但你们都听到这儿了，

know that that is not coming.

肯定已经知道，哪有什么好消息。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

There is no pause button on these explosive and disruptive technologies.

这些爆炸性和颠覆性的技术 是没有暂停键的。

I don't know if you know this,

不知道你们知不知道，

当今世界有超过 100 人

there are over 100 people in the world today

with the knowledge and the technology to create a new smallpox virus.

有知识和技术创造新的天花病毒。

Honestly, I don't have answers,

老实说，我没有答案，

but I have a few questions for the people that do.

但我对他们有几个问题。

Because these technology companies are not just Fortune 50 and 100 actors.

因为这些科技公司 不仅仅是财富 50 强和 100 强成员。

These technology titans are not just men worth 50 or 100 billion dollars or more.

也不仅仅是身价 500 亿或者 1000 亿美元 或者更多的人。

They are increasingly the most powerful people on the planet

他们是地球上越来越强大的人，

with influence over our futures.

可以影响我们的未来。

And we need to know,

我们需要知道，

are they going to act accountably

当他们发布新的强大的 人工智能的时候，

as they release new and powerful artificial intelligence?

他们能否承担起这责任？

What are they going to do with this unprecedented amount of data

他们将如何处理从我们身上 和环境中获取的

that they are collecting on us and our environment?

海量的数据？

And the one that I think should concern us all right now the most:

现在最应该引起我们关注的是

Will they persist with these advertising models

他们是否还会维持这些 获取高额利润的广告模型，

driving so much revenues that are turning citizens into products

把公民变成产品，

and driving hate and misinformation

引导仇恨和错误的信息，

and ripping apart our society?

撕裂我们的社会吗？

(Applause)

（鼓掌）

When I was a student back in 1989,

1989 年我还是学生的时候，

and the Wall fell,

柏林墙被推到，

the United States was the principal exporter of democracy in the world.

美国是世界上 主要的民主输出国家。

Not always successfully.

（尽管）并不总是成功。

Often hypocritically.

（而且）经常是虚伪的。

But number one, nonetheless.

但它排名第一，毋庸置疑。

Today, the United States has become the principal exporter of tools

今天，美国变成了最主要的

毁灭民主工具的输出国。

that destroy democracy.

The technology leaders who create and control these tools,

那些创造和控制 这些工具的科技领导者，

are they OK with that?

他们对此毫无异议吗？

Or are they going to do something about it?

他们会采取行动吗？

We need to know.

我们需要搞清楚。

Thank you.

谢谢。

(Cheers and applause)

（欢呼声和掌声）