The Next Global Superpower Isn't Who You Think | Ian Bremmer | TED

譯者: 穎君 紀 審譯者: Helen Chang

I have a big question.

我有個大哉問：

Which is, who runs the world?

「到底是誰在統治這個世界？」

It used to be an easy question to answer.

以前這個問題很好回答。

If you're over 45 like me,

如果你跟我一樣是 45 歲以上，

you grew up in a world that was dominated by two giants.

你就是活在雙強鼎立的世界：

The United States called the shots on one side of the Wall,

在牆的一邊，美國對別國發號施令，

the Soviets set the rules on the other.

牆的另一邊，蘇俄嚴格管理自己領土。

And that was a bipolar world.

那曾是個兩極的世界，

It's very simple.

非常好理解。

If you're under 45,

如果你還沒 45 歲，

you grew up when the Soviet Union had already collapsed,

你在蘇聯已瓦解的時代長大，

and that left the United States as the sole superpower,

蘇聯的垮台使美國成為單獨巨頭，

dominating global institutions and also exerting raw power.

支配多數國際機構，施展政經權力。

And that was a unipolar world.

這就是個單極的世界。

And then about 15 years ago,

大約 15 年前開始，

things got a little more complicated.

局勢又變得更複雜了。

The United States increasingly didn't want to be the world's policeman

美國越來越不想當「世界警察」，

or the architect of global trade

不想掌控國際貿易，

or even the cheerleader for global values.

也不想擁護全球性的價值。

Other countries were becoming more powerful,

其他國家正在蓬勃發展，

and they could increasingly ignore many of the rules they didn't like,

漸漸藐視他們不喜歡的規則，

sometimes even setting new rules themselves.

有時甚至自己制定新規則。

What happened?

究竟發生什麼事呢？

Three things.

有三件事。

Number one,

第一，

Russia was not integrated into Western institutions.

俄羅斯沒有被吸收進西方勢力，

A former great power now in very serious decline

前強權的勢力嚴重下滑，

and they are angry about it.

他們自己也感到懊惱。

We can argue about whose fault that is, but we are where we are.

是誰的錯還有爭論空間， 但這就是我們目前的處境。

Number two,

第二，

China was integrated into US-led institutions

中國曾被納入美國主導的組織

on the presumption that as they got wealthier and more powerful,

是基於一個假設，

即隨著他們變得更富有和更強大，

they would become Americans.

他們會變成美國人。

Turns out, they're still Chinese.

但結果他們還是中國人。

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

And the United States is not particularly comfortable with that.

美國也對這件事情感到不高興。

Number three,

第三，

tens of millions of citizens in the United States

幾千萬名美國公民

and other wealthy democracies

和其他富裕民主國家人民們

felt left behind by globalization.

覺得被全球化拋在了後頭。

This has been ignored for decades.

這件事被無視幾十年。

But as a consequence,

無視的報應是

they felt that their governments and their leaders were more illegitimate.

人民認為他們的政府 和國家領導人更不合法。

Now if you look at all the headlines in the world today,

現在去看看世界各國新聞頭條，

driving all of this geopolitical tension and conflict,

那些催化地緣政治緊張和爭執的頭條，

over 90 percent of them are because of these three reasons.

有超過九成是以上三個原因。

And that's why today we live in a leaderless world.

所以我才會說，我們現在 活在一個沒有領導人的世界。

But as we know,

但我們知道，

that's not going to be with us for long.

這情勢不會持續太久。

So what comes next?

那接下來會是什麼情況呢？

What kind of a world order might we expect

未來十年的世界秩序

over the next ten years?

可能會變成什麼樣子呢？

Some of what I might say I think will surprise you.

有些我將要說的 可能會讓你感到驚訝，

Because we're not going to have

因為我們不會再見到

a bipolar or a unipolar or even a multipolar world.

兩極化、單極化 甚至多極化的世界了。

If we don't have one or two superpowers,

沒有一個或兩個全球性強權，

we don't have a single global order.

代表不可能只有單單一種世界秩序，

No, instead, we will have three different orders,

而是會有三種不同的世界秩序，

a little overlapping,

有些會些許重疊，

and the third will have immense importance for how we live,

第三種則會大大影響

我們的生活方式、思考方式、需求，

what we think,

what we want,

and what we're prepared to do to get it.

以及我們要得到這些東西必須怎麼做。

But first things first.

首先，

Today, we have a global security order.

今天我們有全球安全秩序。

And as you see from the map,

從地圖上可以看出

the United States and its allies are the most powerful players on it.

美國和其同盟國家擁有最強勢力。

The US is the only country in the world

美國是世界上唯一一個

that can send its soldiers

可以派遣自家兵隊、水手，和軍事器材

and its sailors and its military equipment to every corner of that world.

到世界各地的國家。

No one else is close.

其他國家差得遠了。

China is growing in its military capabilities in Asia,

中國在亞洲的兵力部署日益增長，

though nowhere else.

但在其他地區則不然。

Lots of American allies in Asia are concerned about that.

許多亞洲地區的美國盟友 對此相當憂心。

And as a consequence, they're becoming more dependent

因此，這些盟友國越來越依賴美國，

on the United States for a security umbrella.

向美國尋求保護。

With the Russian invasion of Ukraine,

俄羅斯侵略烏克蘭之後，

US allies in Europe are becoming more concerned and dependent

美國盟友及歐洲越發憂心， 因此日漸依靠美國，

on the United States and a US-led NATO.

和美國主導的北大西洋公約組織。

The Russian military, of course, has been a greater global concern,

當然俄國軍隊對全球來說 一直以來是莫大的威脅，

much less so today,

但如今已經少多了，

especially as they've lost over 200,000 troops

尤其是因為俄國失去 二十多萬名士兵和裝備，

and all of that equipment

and with sanctions making it extremely hard for them to rebuild.

而且制裁使他們難以重建。

Now, Russia and China and others have nuclear weapons,

俄國、中國和其他國家持有核武，

but thank God it is still suicide to use them.

但幸好使用核武對大家都沒好處。

And as a consequence,

結果呢，

our security order is a unipolar order

世界的安全秩序走向單極化，

and it is likely to remain so for the next decade.

下個十年應該也是如此。

Now at the same time that there's a security order,

除了安全秩序以外，

there's also a global economic order.

還有國際經濟秩序。

And here, power is shared.

在國際經濟部分，權力就 不集中在單一對象手裡了。

The United States is still a very robust global economy.

美國仍是很堅強穩固的經濟體，

But the US can't use its dominant position militarily

但美國不能以武力優勢

to tell other countries what to do economically.

威嚇他國做出特定經濟交易。

The United States and China are enormously economically interdependent

美國和中國在經濟方面相當依賴彼此，

and so they can't control each other.

所以他們沒辦法互相制衡。

You may be surprised to hear this,

你聽到這可能會很驚訝，

but today US-China trade relations are actually at their highest level

但現在的美中貿易關係 可說是有史以來最密切。

in history.

Now, other countries in the world,

其他國家

a lot of them want access to US military muscle,

大多想要依靠美國的強大軍事力，

but they also want access to the Chinese market,

同時也想打進中國的大基數消費市場，

soon, by 2030, likely to be the largest in the world.

估計中國在 2030 年 將達到世界最大。

And you can't very well have a cold war

全世界只有美國和中國有本錢開戰，

if the US and the Chinese are the only two that are prepared to fight it.

那怎麼能開啟冷戰呢？

Yes?

對吧？

Yes.

對。

So the European Union has the largest common market

歐盟成為美中以外最大的消費市場，

and they set the rules.

所以他們可以訂立規則。

And if you want to do profitable business there,

想要在歐盟做大筆的生意，

you listen to those rules.

就得遵守那些規則。

India is playing a greater role economically on the global stage.

印度慢慢展現實力， 成為世界經濟要角；

Japan still matters, too.

日本的實力也依然健在。

And over the next ten years,

下一個十年內，

there will be a rise and fall

這幾個經濟體的相對實力

of the relative capacities of these economies.

會有很大的變動。

But the global economic order is and will remain a multipolar order.

但國際經濟秩序是多極的，以後也是。

Now, between these two orders are tensions

這兩種秩序之間有點摩擦，

because the United States will use its power in national security

因為美國會動用強大的國力 升級國家防衛相關裝備，

to try to bring more of the world's economies towards it.

吸引世界各經濟體來跟自己下訂單。

And we already see this starting to happen in semiconductors

這現象已經發生在 半導體產業和稀有礦物產業，

and in critical minerals and maybe soon in TikTok.

以後在抖音產業也可能看見這個現象。

The Chinese are trying to use their dominant commercial position

中國試著利用消費市場廣大這優勢

to align more of the world diplomatically.

拉攏更多外交夥伴。

And Japan and Europe and India

日本、歐洲、印度，

and everyone else will do their damnedest

還有其他國家則會想盡辦法

to ensure that neither of these two orders dominate the other.

不讓中國和美國領導的 其中一種秩序完全主導彼此，

And they will mostly succeed.

且他們確實能控制好這平衡。

Now, so far I have spoken with you

我到現在說了這麼多

about the two world orders we already see,

有關這兩種世界秩序的內容，

but there's a third that is coming soon that's even more important.

但有一種秩序我還沒講， 而且比前兩種更重要，

And that is the digital order.

就是「網路世界秩序」。

And the digital order is not run by governments

網路世界秩序不是由政府管理，

but by technology companies.

而是由科技公司管理。

We all know how much military support

我們都知道在烏俄戰爭時期

NATO countries have provided Ukraine

北約提供多少軍武支援給烏克蘭。

during the war.

But it's technology companies that provided the tools

但科技公司提供的工具讓烏克蘭

allowing Ukraine to defend itself from Russian cyber attack.

成功防下俄羅斯的網路攻擊。

It's technology companies that gave the Ukrainian leaders

科技公司提供的技術讓烏克蘭領導人

the ability to speak with their generals and their soldiers on the front lines.

可以跟遠在前線的 軍人和將領遠距聯繫。

If it wasn't for those technology companies,

要是沒有科技公司的協助，

Ukraine would have been fully offline within weeks of the war.

烏克蘭在開戰幾週內就會完全離線，

And I don't believe President Zelensky would still be there today.

澤倫斯基想必也難逃一死。

Technology companies determine whether Donald Trump is able,

科技公司可以決定要不要讓川普

in real time and without filter,

實時且無過濾地 跟幾百萬名民眾聯繫交流，

to speak with hundreds of millions of people

as he runs again for the presidency.

在他要再次選總統的時期。

It's social media platforms

社交媒體平台和其強大的擴散力，

and their ability to promote disinformation

現已被用來傳播虛假消息和陰謀論。

and conspiracy theory.

Without them, we do not have riots in the Capitol on January 6.

沒有社交平台，就不會出現 2021 年 1 月 6 號的首都暴動、

We do not have trucker riots in Ottawa.

渥太華的卡車司機抗議事件，

We do not have a January 8 insurrection in Brazil.

也不會有 1 月 8 日的 巴西三權廣場騷動。

Technology companies increasingly determine our identities.

科技公司越來越能決定我們的身分。

When I was growing up, it's nature or nurture.

我長大的時候，成為什麼樣的人 是看先天為人和後天教養，

I mean, my deep and abiding emotional problems

你看嘛，我這深鎖心底、 不想觸碰的情緒問題，

either come from how I was raised --

只能是我被爸媽怎麼教，

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

Or some genetic failure.

或我的基因有問題， 其中一個導致的嘛。

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

Could be both.

也可能兩個都是啦。

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

But today,

但現在，

our identities are determined by nature and nurture

我們長成怎樣的人 不只端看先天為人、後天教養，

and algorithm.

還要看演算法。

If you want to challenge the system,

要推翻社會機制的現狀，

you can't just question authority,

不能只質疑當權者，

as we were all told when we were growing up.

我們小時候都有被這樣教。

Today, you have to question the algorithm,

現在，你必須質疑演算法，

and that is a staggering amount of power

而演算法是種很驚人的力量，

in the hands of these technology companies.

由科技公司所持有。

What are they going to do with that power?

科技公司的總裁們 想拿這驚人的力量來做什麼？

And that depends on who they want to be

這就取決於他們長大時 期許自己成為什麼樣的人。

when they grow up.

So if China and the United States work to exert much more power

如果中國和美國想要

over the digital world

在網路世界裡動用自己的力量，

and technology companies in those countries

且科技公司服從各自的國家發展策略，

align with those governments,

we will end up in a technology cold war.

我們就會面臨網路世界版的冷戰，

And that means the digital order will be split in two.

網路世界的勢力版圖會被分成兩極。

If, on the other hand

又，如果

technology companies persist with global business models,

科技公司執意 以一己之力囊括全球用戶，

and we retain competition between the digital and physical worlds,

在現實和網路世界裡 持續進行商業競爭，

we will have a new globalization, a digital global order.

那就會產生全新的全球化景象， 數位的世界秩序。

Or if the digital order becomes increasingly dominant

又如果網路世界秩序變得越來越強勢，

and governments erode in their capacity to govern,

政府逐漸崩潰，無法控制情勢

and we've already seen the beginning of this,

—我們也已目睹這樣的狀況—

technology companies will become the dominant actors

科技公司將會主宰

on the global stage in every way

全世界的方方面面，

and we will have a techno-polar order.

「科技極」秩序就此誕生，

And that will determine whether we have a world of limitless opportunity

這會決定我們未來的世界

or a world without freedom.

充滿著機遇，還是限制。

Now at this point in my speech,

現在你可能會覺得

I'm supposed to talk about the good news.

我該講點好消息了吧。

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

But those of you that have heard this

但聽完這些之後，我相信你們都知道

know that that is not coming.

接下來不會有好消息。

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

There is no pause button on these explosive and disruptive technologies.

科技爆炸性的進步和發展 已經無法停下腳步。

I don't know if you know this,

不知道各位有沒有聽過，

there are over 100 people in the world today

現在世界上有超過一百人

with the knowledge and the technology to create a new smallpox virus.

擁有知識和技術能做出新的天花病毒。

Honestly, I don't have answers,

其實我也沒有解決方案。

but I have a few questions for the people that do.

我有問題想問那些知道解決方案的人。

Because these technology companies are not just Fortune 50 and 100 actors.

科技公司不再只是 《財星》五十大跟百大企業，

These technology titans are not just men worth 50 or 100 billion dollars or more.

這些科技巨頭們不再只是 身價五百億或一千億的人，

They are increasingly the most powerful people on the planet

他們逐漸成為有力量改變世界、

with influence over our futures.

能夠影響人類未來的重要人物。

And we need to know,

我們必須要知道

are they going to act accountably

他們在釋出新的人工智慧技術時，

as they release new and powerful artificial intelligence?

會不會遵守科技倫理。

What are they going to do with this unprecedented amount of data

他們會怎麼處理 從使用者身上和生活周遭

that they are collecting on us and our environment?

取得的大量資料？

And the one that I think should concern us all right now the most:

我認為現在最困擾我們的問題是

Will they persist with these advertising models

他們會不會堅持使用這種廣告手法，

driving so much revenues that are turning citizens into products

將民眾視為搖錢樹牟取暴利，

and driving hate and misinformation

放任仇恨、虛假言論橫行，

and ripping apart our society?

破壞社會和諧呢？

(Applause)

（鼓掌）

When I was a student back in 1989,

1989 年時我還是學生，

and the Wall fell,

柏林圍牆倒塌，

the United States was the principal exporter of democracy in the world.

當時美國是全世界的 主要民主輸出國，

Not always successfully.

儘管並非每次都成功，

Often hypocritically.

經常偽善，

But number one, nonetheless.

到底還是第一。

Today, the United States has become the principal exporter of tools

現在，美國反而是

破壞民主的主要輸出國。

that destroy democracy.

The technology leaders who create and control these tools,

製造並控制科技工具的科技巨頭們

are they OK with that?

真能接受嗎？

Or are they going to do something about it?

打算採取行動嗎？

We need to know.

我們必須知道。

Thank you.

謝謝。

(Cheers and applause)

（歡呼聲、鼓掌聲）